Stock Market Crash Alert - Urgent 8/15 Update

Spirit Of Truth

Spirit Of Truth

Inactive
URGENT UPDATE: AUGUST 15th, 2007:

This is an update to the "Stock Market Crash Alert" I posted in the TB2K forum on July 25th.

_dji


The DJIA fell sharply today closing below the psychologically important 13,000 mark today as I feared, and now the index is right at its critical 200-day moving average. As Frank Barbera of FinancialSense.com pointed out yesterday, the U.S. stock market is in a parallel technical position to where it was just before the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes. Now, in overnight trading, Asian markets do indeed appear to be crashing as the Yen carry trade unwinds. I had expected that a full-fledged crash wouldn't unfold until the week before and after the August 28th lunar eclipse, but it appears to be unfolding now with a major planetary alignment now underway which I had pointed out in this forum back in May. This alignment is tightest tomorrow, August 16th.
 
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Pitchfire

Pitchfire

Inactive
What's it take to get a "calamity?"

Bloomberg

Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- William Poole, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, said the subprime mortgage rout doesn't threaten U.S. economic growth, and only a ``calamity'' would justify an interest-rate cut now.
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R

Rucus Sunday

Veteran Member
I had expected that a full-fledged crash wouldn't unfold until the week before and after the August 28th lunar eclipse
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What does a lunar eclipse have to do with anything? Does anyone sell beads to forestall it?
 
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ChiliPalmer

Inactive
Rucus Sunday said:
What does a lunar eclipse have to do with anything? Does anyone sell beads to forestall it?
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There's long been a theorised connection between lunar activity and crowd behaviour. Ask any ER/labor and delivery/psych ward nurse. A friend of mine is a psych ward nurse and she swears ten full moons out of twelve, the ward goes berserk. A bartender pal refuses flat-out to work a full moon that falls on military paydays.
 
P

Peanut

Resident Pit Yorkie :)
ChiliPalmer said:
There's long been a theorised connection between lunar activity and crowd behaviour. Ask any ER/labor and delivery/psych ward nurse. A friend of mine is a psych ward nurse and she swears ten full moons out of twelve, the ward goes berserk. A bartender pal refuses flat-out to work a full moon that falls on military paydays.
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Yes...retailers can attest to this also. :/
 
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ChiliPalmer

Inactive
Rucus Sunday said:
OK, so let's hear JUST ONE market prediction based on the lunar theory. Just one. Let's see how you do. Just one. Only one.
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Oi.

I've yet to see any market prediction from any model which I found to have better-than-even accuracy over wild guesses, and few market gurus with even a demonstrated understanding of markets themselves (that's why I read JGF so avidly - he's studied, he's grasped, and it shows). If this guy wants his lunar theory, I say more power to him. It's got as much logic behind it - sometimes more - than what we see spouted on the lamestream media.
 
Spirit Of Truth

Spirit Of Truth

Inactive
Rucus Sunday said:
OK, so let's hear some market predictions based on the lunar theory. Be specific: UP or DOWN?
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I suggest you actually read my work and do some reading here:

http://www.calendarresearch.com/resources.html

Do you really think the Mayans and Chaldeans who spent thousands of years tracking the stars and correlating them to history were just primitive and stupid? Maybe there was something to their empirical observations over time.

I guess my thesis may seem irrational to the irrational masses....but that's kind of the point. It is man that is insane, not I.
 
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night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
Rucus, since Lunar Eclipses happen every 28.? days, the probability, (grossly speaking) would be that only one in 28 or so Stock Market Crashes were associated with a Lunar Eclipse...if you include the 3 days either way (which Astrologers do) then it goes down to roughly 1 in 4 Crashes should be associated. IIRC the actual association is 3 out of 4 or higher.
 
Spirit Of Truth

Spirit Of Truth

Inactive
night driver said:
Rucus, since Lunar Eclipses happen every 28.? days, the probability, (grossly speaking) would be that only one in 28 or so Stock Market Crashes were associated with a Lunar Eclipse...if you include the 3 days either way (which Astrologers do) then it goes down to roughly 1 in 4 Crashes should be associated. IIRC the actual association is 3 out of 4 or higher.
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Lunar eclipses occur only a few times a year. Full moons and the lunar cycle repeat every 29 days. Planetary alignments are rarer still, the last major one occurring on 5/5/2000....and think about what happened to financial markets back then just after the Nasdaq Composite had reversed from its all-time high above the 5000 mark.
 
PilotFighter

PilotFighter

Bomb & Bullet Technician
Yen back at 115.98-115.99 - 0.95 again. I think it's going to stay below that now. Had came back up to 116 for a bit. Can you explain that Yen Carry Trade Spirit?
 
Spirit Of Truth

Spirit Of Truth

Inactive
Deputy PM: Yen-Carry Trade Could Lead to Another Financial Crisis:

http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?bicode=020000&biid=2007081568818

Also see:

The Hedge Fund Subprime Credit Crunch Explained

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1185894060.php

Feb 2007 - Yen Carry Trade Unraveling Warning's Impact on the Subprime sector

What happened was basically institutions that borrowed in Yen at less than 1% and invested elsewhere for much higher returns, such as in the subprime mortgage sector. This is further exacerbated as through the use of on leveredged derivatives products. The whole system is reliant on Japanese interest rates remaining low and the Yen weak. If the yen strengthens then the value of the debts increases and thus a rush for the exit as people look to liquidate positions further strengthening the yen and carry trade losses. This is what happened when China wobbled during Feb 07. There was a dash to liquidate Yen Carry trade positions i.e. reduction in global liquidity, out flows from stock markets and a squeeze on mortgage lending in the subprime mortgage sector. However the subprime mortgage market was already in meltdown as the losses were being realized through foreclosure.

This was expected to have an knock on effect on economic activity which increased the chances of a US interest rate cut, which ironically meant an even greater loss of liquidity due to greater risk of future failures. However this warning at the time proved temporary in most cases apart from the Sub Prime Mortgages which continued to deteriorate whilst the Stock markets recovered.
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Spirit Of Truth

Spirit Of Truth

Inactive
Chumbucket said:
Spirit of Truth, you definitely have my attention. I read what you said in May. I am still picking my jaw off the floor. :eek:

http://www.coasttocoastam.com/gen/page2160.html?theme=light
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Thanks for that link!

Presently a very significant celestial alignment is taking shape in our sky. This alignment is punctuated by the New Moon in Leo which happens on Sunday, August 12, 2007 at 4:02 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time. In this event, 9 celestial bodies will align in a narrow corridor while being harmoniously aspected by Pluto. I feel this event marks a significant initiation of transformation and regeneration—one that emphasizes the blessings of our current experience, and encourages us to attend and nurture the life and beauty that fills and surrounds all in our world.
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INDEED THE LION OF JUDAH IS ROARING!

Man has come to worship money rather than God, and this misplaced faith inevitably results in an upset of unprecedented historical proportions. This is "The Crash":

http://www.spiritoftruth.org/truth.htm
 
H

HangingDog

Veteran Member
Snt this to my FIL in Thailand


Charles Schwab appeared to turn off their website today. Can't call either. "We are experiencing techical difficulties, plaese call back later"

Just like 1987.

Gold and silver pounded. Gold stocks down 12% at one point.

Kitco off the air for a while.

This is after all the 'puter upgrades to handle volume... instead they just turn'em off to stop the selling. Customer service you got to love it.
 
H

Hermit

Inactive
As long as everyone is prophesying ..... I predict that the reclassification of Pluto will so piss off that planet, that the Dow will experience a 10-11% correction ..... at that point some of the big players who are keeping their cool will jump in and start buying again, driving the market back up.

Alternatively there might be a moderate bear market for 1 year, 8 months, and 6 days ..... according to the next alignment of Pluto with Youranus.
 
Spirit Of Truth

Spirit Of Truth

Inactive
"And one of the elders saith unto me, Weep not: behold, the Lion of the tribe of Judah, the Root of David, hath prevailed to open the book, and to loose the seven seals thereof..."
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http://www.spiritoftruth.org/truth.htm

A stock market crash was forestalled by the Fed, but I don't think this will last. The Fed is impotent versus mother nature.

The next Puetz eclipse crash window opens next week. It runs from 6 days before to 3 days after the total lunar eclipse on 8/28.
 
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