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WAR When World War III Happens, It Will Start In One Of These 5 Places
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  1. #1
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    When World War III Happens, It Will Start In One Of These 5 Places

    I can agree with this analysis.

    Michael

    For fair use education/research purposes.

    The link: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/bu...5-places-87471

    The article:

    When World War III Happens, It Will Start In One Of These 5 Places
    By Robert Farley

    Diplomacy is needed to calm these conflicts.

    The world has avoided war between major power war since 1945, even if the United States and the Soviet Union came quite close on several occasions during the Cold War. In the first two decades following the fall of the Berlin Wall, great power war seemed virtually unimaginable. Today, with China’s power still increasing and Russia’s rejection of the international order apparently complete, great power conflict is back on the menu.

    In what is slowly becoming a tradition here at TNI (see my predictions for 2017 and 2018) what are the most dangerous flashpoints to watch in 2019?

    The South China Sea:

    The South China Sea (SCS) has become wrapped into the growing trade clash between the United States and China. For now, that conflict is playing out in exchanges of heated rhetoric, tariffs and various other trade sanctions. The United States and Canada recently escalated the conflict by arresting an executive of the Chinese technology firm Huawei, which led to counter-steps by China against Canadian citizens and U.S. firms.

    As of yet the United States and China have not drawn a tight connection between the trade war and the ongoing disputes in the SCS. However, as relations between the two countries deteriorate, one or the other might decide to escalate beyond dollars, words and legal filings.

    Indeed, if China and the United States conclude that their trade relationship (which has provided the foundation of global economic growth for the last two decades) is at substantial risk, and similarly conclude that further conflict is inevitable, then either might decide to “take off the gloves” in the SCS.

    Ukraine:

    The world remembered Ukraine when an incident at the passage into the Sea of Azov resulted in shots fired, a ramming and the detention of two Ukrainian patrol vessels. Whether instigated by Russia or Ukraine (and both governments appear to have played some part), the interception reignited tensions in a crisis that has smoldered for the last couple of years. The declaration of martial law by the Ukrainian government suggested the possibility of unrest in Ukraine.

    To be sure, Russia seems to lack any interest in disrupting the status quo ahead of the Ukrainian elections, while the Ukrainian government continues to lack the capacity to consequentially change facts on the ground. The upcoming elections will probably not change the basic equation, but could introduce uncertainty. Given the continuing tensions between Russia and the United States, even a small shift could threaten the uneasy balance that has held for the last several years, potentially throwing Eastern Europe into chaos.

    Persian Gulf:

    The perpetual political and military crisis in the Middle East has settled into an uneasy tedium. Economic pressure on Iran continues to increase, as the United States take ever more aggressive steps to curtail trade. The Saudi war on Yemen shows no signs of abating, and while the Syrian Civil War has dialed down to a low, slow burn, both the United States and Russia remain committed to their partners and proxies.

    But like any slow burn, the conflict could reignite. Political turmoil in Iran could destabilize the region, either pushing Iran into aggressive behavior or making the Islamic Republic a tempting target for its enemies. The tensions between Kurds, Turks, Syrians and Iraqis could break into open conflict at any time. Finally, the mercurial leader of Saudi Arabia has demonstrated time and again a proclivity for risk acceptance, even as whispers about the stability of the Kingdom grow louder. Given the strategic importance of the region, any instability could lead to conflict between the United States, Russia or even China.

    Korean Peninsula:

    It is undoubtedly correct that tensions on the Korean Peninsula have declined a great deal in the last year, as Kim Jong-un has demonstrated a degree of forbearance regarding nuclear and ballistic missile tests, and President Donald Trump has toned down his rhetoric about confronting North Korea. And indeed, the prospects of an enduring peace are surely brighter now than at any time since the mid-1990s.

    And yet serious pitfalls remain. The president has staked his prestige on an agreement with North Korea, yet by most serious accounts North Korea has not suspended, or even slowed, its production of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. President Trump’s advisors are aware of and unhappy about this fundamental contradiction. If Trump sours on Kim, if elements of the administration try to spoil any agreement, or if Kim sours on Trump, the relationship between Washington and Pyongyang could go sour very quickly. Moreover, neither China nor Japan are fully on board with reconciliation between South Korea and a fully nuclear North Korea, although their reasons for skepticism are quite different. All told, the situation in Korea remains much more dangerous than the most optimistic assessments would suggest.

    Unpredictable?

    As a colonel at the U.S. Army War College memorably phrased the problem, “the United States has wrongly predicted every conflict since the Korean War. Why should we expect World War III will be any different?” Great powers tend to devote diplomatic, military, and political resources to what they regard as the most serious conflicts on their plates. Less critical conflicts don’t receive as much attention, meaning that they can sometimes grow into serious confrontations before anyone quite notices what’s going on. Disruptive conflict could emerge in the Baltics, in Azerbaijan, in Kashmir or even in Venezuela, but the United States, China and Russia only have so much focus. If World War III comes about, it may well come from a completely unexpected direction.

    Final Thoughts:

    Is the world more dangerous today than it was a year ago? Perhaps not, although the decay of the relationship between China and the United States portends ill for the future. The flashpoints may change over time, but the fundamental foundations of conflict—the decay of U.S. military hegemony and of the global international order that has accompanied it—mean that the near future will likely become more hazardous than the recent past.

  2. #2
    I have another potential flashpoint though it will have to ripen a bit more: the American Heartland. If CW2 ever goes hot, it will certainly go global.

  3. #3
    ???? - Pakistan and India are about as close to battling it out as any two countries have been in decades >>> and both are proxies for the big guys and India is a direct combatant of China - border clashes and all ...

    wouldn't count out this sub continent arena out as a 3rd WW hot spot igniter ...
    Illini Warrior

  4. #4
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    I would say the Middle East will kick it off but this:

    Quote Originally Posted by Illini Warrior View Post
    Pakistan and India
    Is an excellent guess, as well.
    Deo adjuvante non timendum - With God Helping, Nothing is to be Feared
    "You are like a pit-bull..." - Dennis Olson
    "No man knows but that the last backward glance over his shoulder may be his last look, forever." - Ernie Pyle Born: 1900 KIA: 1945 Shima, Okinawa

  5. #5
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    From the OP:


    Is the world more dangerous today than it was a year ago? Perhaps not, although the decay of the relationship between China and the United States portends ill for the future. The flashpoints may change over time, but the fundamental foundations of conflict—the decay of U.S. military hegemony and of the global international order that has accompanied it—mean that the near future will likely become more hazardous than the recent past.
    Interesting analysis that needs a simple lateral transformation.

    Hegemony has always been and will continue to be the operative buzzword of the two giant Communist monoliths, Soviet Russia and Red China. Therefore it is not American military omnipotence which appears destabilizing but rather the apparent absence of Communist based hegemony in the areas they covet. I share the view in the OP that Ukraine is a serious potential flashpoint. The current geopolitical somnolence in that region will evaporate instantly the moment the Kremlin decides that "now" (whenever that may be) is the time to regain their lost empire. Not only Ukraine but the Baltic states and at least the Eastern regions of Europe would vanish into the orbit of Soviet satellite states.

    Apart from the same operative calculations and the different names of potential nation state victims, I also share the angst and the unbridled instability built in to the potential confrontation with Red China.

    Something to jar all of your mother's preserves. What if China and Russia join forces to carry out massive invasion, death and destruction? Consider the possibilities if you dare. From Australia to Japan with the nations of the Asian basin becoming bloody gristle in the Communist meat grinder. Alaska would not be safe and the Polar regions would possibly come under control as launch pads for the missile bases and submarine hideouts to come later.

    It is not an unhinged reaction to see horror in what Communism still has a blood soaked potential to accomplish.
    "Talking is easy and everyone is wise after the event."

    Ernest Joyce

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grumphau View Post
    I have another potential flashpoint though it will have to ripen a bit more: the American Heartland. If CW2 ever goes hot, it will certainly go global.


    I agree with you and I think your prediction could, very well, fall into the "Unpredictable" category in the above article.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by ElevenO View Post
    I agree with you and I think your prediction could, very well, fall into the "Unpredictable" category in the above article.
    I agree. I watched this video yesterday making the same case: 9:35


  8. #8
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    I think the term "World War III" is being misused in this article. Most of the conflict points mentioned would be regional wars and not global wars it they were to start up.

    As an example the Persian Gulf which would involve US and Russian troops. I do not expect either of us to care about the area enough to put any meaningful numbers of troops on the ground. I believe it would mostly be an air, naval, and missile war mostly limited to the area other then maybe terrorist attacks by the usual islamic players

    The only one I would expect to possibly reach WW3 size would be something in the South China Sea against China. The current relations between the us and china has the chinese pissed at us for upsetting the prior trade and economic rules. So military options is the only way they feel that they can truly again gain the upper hand. A lot boils down to the next election and maybe again in 2024. If Trump wins in 2020 and someone else wins in 2024 who continues Trumps economic trade policies then I fully expect china to take a harder line in the South China Sea and there will be more boat rammings, plane shootdowns, etc until something happen to quickly escalate the use of force by both sides. At which point expect to quickly see S.Korea and Taiwan attacked. IMO

    tbd

  9. #9
    I doubt that Russia and China will unite to inflict a world conflagration. While they occasionally have marriages of convenience they are at odds in terms who has dominance. I think Russia fears the Chinese BRI will completely encircle Russia and cut it out of the game.

    Putin is in Saudi Arabia now and is trying to keep the Middle East from blowing up. Xi is in India now trying to smooth over the Kashmir problem for it's own client state, Pakistan. India has had backing from Russia for generations.

    Both are trying to develop influence in the Islamic world, the wild card in all of this.

    I remember being in Jr. High when violence between Russia and China broke out because of the border in Manchuria. My social studies teacher pulled down the Asian map and explained that for as much we think of Communism as a monolith the reality was that Russia and China would always be in competition with each other. He then asked us who was supporting the North Vietnamese in the then Vietnam War? We all said China because it made sense geographically. He promptly disabused us of that notion. It was Russia.

    The Chinese then tried to invade Vietnam in 1979, a Communist country in good standing, and got its head handed to it. The Rambo films drove home the point to Americans who never understood that dynamic.

    My vote is that if there is a WWIII, somewhere in the Islamic World will be the trigger.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Plain Jane View Post

    The Chinese then tried to invade Vietnam in 1979, a Communist country in good standing, and got its head handed to it. The Rambo films drove home the point to Americans who never understood that dynamic.

    My vote is that if there is a WWIII, somewhere in the Islamic World will be the trigger.
    Please. The China of 1979, and the China of today are two entirely different beasts

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ragnarok View Post
    I would say the Middle East will kick it off.
    The West is developing Mideast fatigue. America and Russia are losing interest. This go around a WWIII might just be third world and second world going at it with the first world sitting it out and benefiting from the carnage. We've had a proxy Cold War, now we may get a proxy World War.
    Hwæt! Wé Gárdena in géardagum þéodcyninga þrym gefrúnon· hú ðá æþelingas ellen fremedon. - Listen! We of the Spear-Danes in the days of yore, of those clan-kings heard of their glory. How the worthy princes performed courageous deeds!

  12. #12
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    Nope.

    While those are all diffident possibilities I'm looking toward Europe. That many military age male Muslims in Europe has never ended well in the past and I don't see it doing so in the not so distant future.

    It looks to me like China is doing it's own unique version of colonization and occupation. Yes, they bought control over various country's assets: mineral rights, farmland etc. from their various governments. Still I don't see that ending well. Reports are they don't play nice with the locals. They may own it but can they retain control? I can imagine China fighting a multi front war over international assets they thought were secure.
    Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it. - Mark Twain

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by billet View Post
    Please. The China of 1979, and the China of today are two entirely different beasts
    I absolutely agree with that statement. But it doesn't change the fact that it is Russia and China that are in competition with each other for now, no matter what smiley face they present. And the Islamic world seems to be in mindset that the slightest provocation will set it off. Especially against each other. With Russia and China in the background trying to influence results for hegemony in the area.

    Another area to consider for that is Latin America. Although the ducks may not be very well lined up there.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Old Gray Mare View Post
    Nope.

    While those are all diffident possibilities I'm looking toward Europe. That many military age male Muslims in Europe has never ended well in the past and I don't see it doing so in the not so distant future.

    It looks to me like China is doing it's own unique version of colonization and occupation. Yes, they bought control over various country's assets: mineral rights, farmland etc. from their various governments. Still I don't see that ending well. Reports are they don't play nice with the locals. They may own it but can they retain control? I can imagine China fighting a multi front war over international assets they thought were secure.
    I just don't see those as world wars. Large conflicts yes but not world wars

    Yes one day europe is going to have a serious issue with their muslim population. Either large scale coordinated terrorist attacks against european institutions or slaughter of european people which will be basically a muslim war against europe once countries like turkey come out on the side of the muslims. Or you will have a small scale police event which turns into multi country riots due to the oppressed feelings of the muslim majority because europe is not like the countries they came from. If Russia gets involved I believe it will be on the side of the europeans because Russia has its own muslim problem.

    China has been investing a lot into african countries locking up resources. If free elections were to occur then the corrupt governments in those countries who currently taking chinese bribe money would be replace. Or again a small event by a chinese citizen against a local turns into large scale rioting. China might send in troops but my guess is they rely on the local government to handle things. But I do believe china will send in a small amount of security folks not called troops to protect their physical assets on the ground

    But again I do not see these 2 possible issues as a cause for the larger countries to go to war against each other

    tbd

  15. #15
    China shows off world’s first STEALTH armed drone

    October 12, 2019 |  Category: Prophecy News |  Tags: China, World War 3



    CHINA has developed a world-first stealth drone capable of flying for extended periods of time and hitting targets with extreme precision completely undetected.


    The craft, named Sharp Sword, is part of a new generation of unmanned combat air vehicles, and is thought to be capable of evading current US defence systems.

    It was unveiled at China National Day parade on October 1, when president Xi Jinping declared that “no force can stop the Chinese people and the Chinese nation forging ahead”.

    The craft is similar in appearance to the Predator drone used by the US since 1995, but its wing design and the concealment of components like its exhaust gives it enhanced stealth capabilities.

    MORE: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/100773...ne-us-defence/

    https://www.endtime.com/prophecy-new...eid=eecf3cfa77
    https://safeg.net/home A Safe Alternative to Harmful 5G Wireless

    Matthew 10:17 But beware of men: for they will deliver you up to the councils, and they will scourge you in their synagogues; 18 And ye shall be brought before governors and kings for my sake, for a testimony against them and the Gentiles. 19 But when they deliver you up, take no thought how or what ye shall speak: for it shall be given you in that same hour what ye shall speak.

  16. #16
    No one has factored in the SGSM (Super Grand Solar Minimum) ie. Ice Age which is inbound according to some pretty level headed scientists and mathematicians. Hat tip to Dr. Zharkova.

    We are already seeing evidence of global crop loss. That will lead to starvation, migration, and disease.

    I wonder if China has factored this into their colonization of Africa, as it will be in a warmer zone where life can continue without so much disruption in weather. 5G is all about control, not communication. Being zapped with that much energy in the form of microwaves (or the threat of it) is a good device to herd the population. The communist Chinese are ever about control and there is no velvet glove to cover their iron fist.

    When mass migrations start to happen and countries start to hoard their crops instead of selling them on the open market, then I believe that we will see the beginnings of a truly World War. There is still food and comfort in Europe, hence the reason they have not outright rebelled at having all the rags in their midst. Wait until the food gets scarce or the weather turns too many feet of ice. Wait until disease begins. Then, you will see the old spirit. I wait for it eagerly. I believe Europe will be the flash point with the Americas a close second.
    Last edited by Seeker22; 10-13-2019 at 11:25 AM.
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  17. #17
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    According to Biblical prophecy, the Middle East is where the next world war will take place. That doesn't mean that we couldn't have a civil war here in the US, or other countries have their own skirmishes as well. Over all, though, the Mideast is the place to watch.
    Sherree

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Plain Jane View Post
    I doubt that Russia and China will unite to inflict a world conflagration. While they occasionally have marriages of convenience they are at odds in terms who has dominance. I think Russia fears the Chinese BRI will completely encircle Russia and cut it out of the game.

    Putin is in Saudi Arabia now and is trying to keep the Middle East from blowing up. Xi is in India now trying to smooth over the Kashmir problem for it's own client state, Pakistan. India has had backing from Russia for generations.

    Both are trying to develop influence in the Islamic world, the wild card in all of this.

    I remember being in Jr. High when violence between Russia and China broke out because of the border in Manchuria. My social studies teacher pulled down the Asian map and explained that for as much we think of Communism as a monolith the reality was that Russia and China would always be in competition with each other. He then asked us who was supporting the North Vietnamese in the then Vietnam War? We all said China because it made sense geographically. He promptly disabused us of that notion. It was Russia.

    The Chinese then tried to invade Vietnam in 1979, a Communist country in good standing, and got its head handed to it. The Rambo films drove home the point to Americans who never understood that dynamic.

    My vote is that if there is a WWIII, somewhere in the Islamic World will be the trigger.

    sorry - but if China got itself mired down heavy >>> don't count out Russia coming over the border (AGAIN) and taking Manchuria and some of that Pacific coastal region ...

    vice versa for Rusia >>> if Putin was stupid enough to pull the trigger on the Ukraine and try another Stalin move on Europe - good chance China not only goes after Russian Siberia interests but would start their Pacific Rim move south to Australia ....
    Illini Warrior

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by TammyinWI View Post
    China shows off world’s first STEALTH armed drone

    October 12, 2019 |  Category: Prophecy News |  Tags: China, World War 3



    CHINA has developed a world-first stealth drone capable of flying for extended periods of time and hitting targets with extreme precision completely undetected.


    The craft, named Sharp Sword, is part of a new generation of unmanned combat air vehicles, and is thought to be capable of evading current US defence systems.

    It was unveiled at China National Day parade on October 1, when president Xi Jinping declared that “no force can stop the Chinese people and the Chinese nation forging ahead”.

    The craft is similar in appearance to the Predator drone used by the US since 1995, but its wing design and the concealment of components like its exhaust gives it enhanced stealth capabilities.

    MORE: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/100773...ne-us-defence/

    https://www.endtime.com/prophecy-new...eid=eecf3cfa77
    That little bird is not stealth......too many flat lines. And as far as first goes, no.

  20. #20
    When ww3 pops, matters not where it starts, it's the dominoes that follow, in quick succession that will hurt. Any one of many in that line of dominoes will create the spread of death. The good and the bad, will find themselves at deaths door. Come Lord Jesus

  21. #21
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    I'll jUSt post one.

    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernBreeze View Post
    According to Biblical prophecy, the Middle East is where the next world war will take place. That doesn't mean that we couldn't have a civil war here in the US, or other countries have their own skirmishes as well. Over all, though, the Mideast is the place to watch.
    Most of the theology is pretty close to the same. Many do not include the US but this is the first one I came to. The power in the world is the British Empire. President Trump is fighting for Chinas adherence to international law. He puts US first as he should but in the end he is fighting for international law.

    http://books.google.com/books?id=i8q...0bands&f=false

  22. #22
    Looks like a squashed X-43. Which we have operational by the way.
    Not terribly stealthy looking either. Lots of blended wing body and not much depth in the fuselage area. And unless those wings are completely hollow I'd say not very stealthy.
    Unless it's dripping in colloidal suspension paint.

    Oh, and look at the little jeep thing in front of it. It's riding on Volkswagen alloy wheels. (Type 1's for the Passat SE model specifically, 2015-2018 model years). Didn't know VW was building stuff for the Chinese military!

    Quote Originally Posted by TammyinWI View Post
    China shows off world’s first STEALTH armed drone

    October 12, 2019 |  Category: Prophecy News |  Tags: China, World War 3



    CHINA has developed a world-first stealth drone capable of flying for extended periods of time and hitting targets with extreme precision completely undetected.


    The craft, named Sharp Sword, is part of a new generation of unmanned combat air vehicles, and is thought to be capable of evading current US defence systems.

    It was unveiled at China National Day parade on October 1, when president Xi Jinping declared that “no force can stop the Chinese people and the Chinese nation forging ahead”.

    The craft is similar in appearance to the Predator drone used by the US since 1995, but its wing design and the concealment of components like its exhaust gives it enhanced stealth capabilities.

    MORE: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/100773...ne-us-defence/

    https://www.endtime.com/prophecy-new...eid=eecf3cfa77

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by AlfaMan View Post

    Oh, and look at the little jeep thing in front of it. It's riding on Volkswagen alloy wheels. (Type 1's for the Passat SE model specifically, 2015-2018 model years). Didn't know VW was building stuff for the Chinese military!
    More then likely VW has a deal with a manufacturer in china for their wheel production and the factory is also selling them to a company who makes light duty military vehicles.

    tbd

  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Illini Warrior View Post
    sorry - but if China got itself mired down heavy >>> don't count out Russia coming over the border (AGAIN) and taking Manchuria and some of that Pacific coastal region ...

    vice versa for Rusia >>> if Putin was stupid enough to pull the trigger on the Ukraine and try another Stalin move on Europe - good chance China not only goes after Russian Siberia interests but would start their Pacific Rim move south to Australia ....
    I don't discount a thing you say here. In fact the game in Serbia is underway.

    https://balkaninsight.com/2019/10/14...me-friendship/

    Chinese and Serbian Ruling Parties Pledge ‘All-Time’ Friendship
    Milica StojanovicBelgradeBIRNOctober 14, 2019
    The ruling parties in Beijing and Belgrade have vowed to forge ever-closer links as a Chinese Communist Party delegation continues its visit to Serbia.

    ***********

    The final paragraph reads:

    "The two countries have long developed economic cooperation, with Serbia forming an important part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative in southeast Europe. China is also becoming a “player” in Serbia’s security sector, as BIRN previously reported."

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