Check out the TB2K CHATROOM, open 24/7               Configuring Your Preferences for OPTIMAL Viewing
  To access our Email server, CLICK HERE

  If you are unfamiliar with the Guidelines for Posting on TB2K please read them.      ** LINKS PAGE **



*** Help Support TB2K ***
via mail, at TB2K Fund, P.O. Box 24, Coupland, TX, 78615
or


ECON Ha, ha things are going mad everywhere. Run for the hills!!!
+ Reply to Thread
Page 1 of 2 1 2 LastLast
Results 1 to 40 of 41
  1. #1

    Ha, ha things are going mad everywhere. Run for the hills!!!

    Ha, ha things are going mad everywhere. Run for the hills!!!


    I have been listening to heaps of stuff and I can safely say we are about to see an economic collapse.

    Record about of CEOs are running to safe places.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Location
    Montana
    Posts
    1,264
    Quote Originally Posted by China Connection View Post
    Ha, ha things are going mad everywhere. Run for the hills!!!


    I have been listening to heaps of stuff and I can safely say we are about to see an economic collapse.

    Record about of CEOs are running to safe places.

    Wha? You can’t do that, CC!

    Come on, give us the juice! What do you know!

    Readers Digest...

  3. #3
    Here Greg Hunter is saying get ready in case things go mad.

    .................................................. ............................................

    Greg Hunter - Weekly News Wrap-Up 9.20.19
    27,453 views•Published on Sep 20, 2019

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpQaaZUbq4M


    Greg Hunter
    228K subscribers
    Join Greg Hunter as he looks back at the top stories in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

    Donations: https://usawatchdog.com/donations/

    Stay in contact with USAWatchdog.com: https://usawatchdog.com/join/

  4. #4
    Things are heating up um? Costs money to fight a war.

    .................................................. ............

    These Last Days News - Septrmber 19, 2019
    URGENT: Forward a link to this web page to your clergy, family, friends and relatives.

    Russia Conducts Massive Military Drills with China, Sending a Message to the West..
    .
    MANPOWER OF CHINA
    "Russia will also utilize the manpower of China as they make their thrust forward.
    "I realize, My child, that this message has a great emotional impact upon you. Do not be afeared." - Jesus, March 26, 1983

    "Russia has but one plan: to capture the whole world. They will do this without heart or conscience. Therefore, know that I ask you again, as your God in the Trinity, I ask you to contact the Holy Father—through pen or prose, or the written script—to contact the Holy Father and beg him to consecrate Russia to the Immaculate Heart of My Mother. This has not been done, My children." - Jesus, May 17, 1986

    The above Messages from Our Lady were given to Veronica Lueken at Bayside, New York. Read more

    CNBC.com on September 17, 2019:

    by Holly Ellyatt

    Russia is carrying out a series of large-scale military exercises with China, India and Pakistan in what experts believe is Moscow trying to send a powerful message to the West.

    The military drills take place annually but Russia has upped the ante this year by inviting forces from China, India and Pakistan (as well as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) to take part in the drills.

    The exercises will involve 128,000 military personnel, more than 20,000 weapons and military equipment, about 600 aircraft and up to 15 ships and support vessels, according to the Russian defense ministry. The drills are designed to test the combat-readiness of the military command and troops within the central military district in Russia (hence being called “Tsentr-2019”) and will also see the country test its military capabilities in the Arctic.

    The season of Tsentr exercises actually started in June but this week is seen as the culmination of those in the most important “strategic command post exercise,” known as the “hot phase” by experts.

    Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu insisted earlier in September that the strategic military exercises are not directed against other countries but are instead focused on countering the threat from international terrorism.

    But experts say the exercises are also designed to show Russia’s military strength and abilities, showcase its weaponry for commercial purposes and, most importantly, are meant to send an unequivocal message to the West.

    “This is very much an anti-American message, an anti-Western message that Russia is not isolated and Russia can operate with a potential rival — because China is very much seen both as a friend and an enemy and potential competitor to Russian interests in the future,” Mathieu Boulegue, research fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, said in a briefing ahead of the exercises.

    “The message is quite clear when it comes to Russia, it means that ‘we’re not alone, we have a lot of partners, we’re not isolated so whatever efforts the West are trying to do against us we are still able to have powerful military alliances with China, India and Pakistan’,” he said.

    Just for show?
    Experts like Boulegue view the annual military drills with skepticism, especially when it comes to the number of military personnel and equipment involved.

    “Don’t trust the numbers, honestly, don’t believe the figures. They’re here to show the strength of the Russian army,” he said, noting that any kind of military drill taking place in Russia over the last four months could be labeled a part of “Tsentr,” hence inflating the size of the exercise.

    Anyone watching Tsentr 2019 should expect a carefully choreographed military spectacle, Boulegue said. And with China involved (as it was last year too), Russia will be keen to avoid mishaps that could embarrass Russia’s defense ministry. In the 2017 military drills a helicopter was filmed accidentally firing a rocket at a cargo vehicle, for example.

    The exercises have also been a way for Russia to show off its military wares to potential arms buyers, although the most significant element of this year’s training is the participation of China, Boulegue said. He added that it shouldn’t be taken as a sign of a new strategic alliance between the two nations that are both seeking to build stable ties in the face of a more unpredictable U.S. power, while remaining potential rivals on an economic and political level.

    “What Russia is actually doing here is demonstrating status and performing the link with China that it’s trying to build in the security sphere on the world stage,” Boulegue said, emphasizing that “this is not a strategic alliance, there is nothing strategic about China-Russia relations right now … But what it’s showing is just a meaningful defense and security partnership.”


    https://www.tldm.org/news43/russia-c...o-the-west.htm

  5. #5
    Fed. Announces: "Bank Bailouts Extended Thru Oct. 10th." By Gregory Mannarino

    About 15 minites long


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDh2AS9b-IE


    Gregory Mannarino
    93.5K subscribers

  6. #6

    Millennials have an average debt of over 27 thousand dollars.


    ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    Millennials, also known as Generation Y (or simply Gen Y), are the demographic cohort following Generation X and preceding Generation Z. Researchers and popular media use the early 1980s as starting birth years and the mid-1990s to early 2000s as ending birth years, with 1981 to 1996 a widely accepted definition.
    Millennials - Wikipedia

    https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Millennials
    ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////


    QE4 - FED LOSING CONTROL - REPO MARKET CHAOS - FINANCIAL DISASTER - US BUBBLES
    27,684 views•Published on Sep 20, 2019

    About 15 long

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVKf_A-k90E

    jeremiah babe
    36.1K subscribers
    For your PRECIOUS METALS needs SD BULLION is the best place to shop. It's where I buy.

  7. #7
    Getting very interesting to say the least. However GERALD is saying after the elections bu says any wildcard could bring things down like war.


    GERALD CELENTE: ELITES WILL TAKE THE ENTIRE SHIP DOWN - PREPARE YOUR SCUBA GEAR!

    About 30 minutes long

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YiTtRYky1kE

    Portfolio Wealth Global
    19.7K subscribers
    MUST-READ FOR INVESTORS:
    https://www.portfoliowealthglobal.com...
    https://www.portfoliowealthglobal.com...
    https://www.portfoliowealthglobal.com...
    Last edited by China Connection; 09-21-2019 at 03:19 AM.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    NC
    Posts
    1,474
    Please Lord, don't let things get TOO bad before we get a decent mortgage rate and close on our hopefully last home - a condo for our retirement years - set to close October 29th!!! Please.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    17,647

  10. #10
    Join Date
    May 2001
    Location
    Anna, Texas
    Posts
    3,445
    Been ready for 20 years. A nothing burger so far.
    "When law and morality contradict each other, the citizen has the cruel alternative of either losing his moral sense or losing his respect for the law." ~ Frederic Bastiilt

    "Duty is ours; results are God's."

  11. #11
    Good to see someone gets it. When the System collapses through credit shutting up you don't want to be stuck in the cities.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    N. Minnesota
    Posts
    13,980
    Maybe lighten up on the caffeine? Or not. Enjoy.


  13. #13
    I'm ordering a solar well pump (a good one thats been field tested for years now) on the 26th of this month. Will plumb it so it will work in the same drop pipe that we use for our wind mill. So we can still use the windmill if need be.

    Windmills are great but changing the leathers in the brass cylinder and changing the oil in the motor is a real PITA.

    So here we go again on our own.... stacking lots of empty water and other containers for trade we are thinking...

  14. #14
    Goldman Sachs Has Just Issued An Ominous Warning About Stock Market Chaos In October
    September 20, 2019 by Michael Snyder

    Are we about to see U.S. financial markets go crazy? That is what Goldman Sachs seems to think, and it certainly wouldn’t be the first time that great financial chaos has been unleashed during the month of October. When the stock market crashed in October 1929, it started the worst economic depression that we have ever witnessed. In October 1987, the largest single day percentage decline in U.S. stock market history rocked the entire planet. And the nightmarish events of October 2008 set the stage for a “Great Recession” that we still haven’t fully recovered from. So could it be possible that something similar may happen in October 2019? According to CNBC, Goldman Sachs is warning that the stock market could soon “go crazy again”…

    For investors taking a breather from the chaos in August, buckle up as the market is about to go crazy again, Goldman Sachs warned.

    Wall Street is now inches away from reclaiming its record highs, but a rockier ride could be around the corner as stock volatility has been 25% higher in October on average since 1928, according to Goldman. Big price swings have been seen in each major stock benchmark and sector in October over the past 30 years, with technology and health care being the most volatile groups, Goldman said.

    Goldman derivatives strategist John Marshall is the man behind this new warning, and he believes that there are some fundamental reasons why the month of October is often so volatile…

    “We believe high October volatility is more than just a coincidence,” John Marshall, equity derivatives strategist at Goldman, said in a note Friday. “We believe it is a critical period for many investors and companies that manage performance to calendar year-end.”

    And even though October hasn’t arrived yet, we are already starting to see some things that we haven’t witnessed since the last financial crisis.

    For example, the Federal Reserve had not intervened in the repo market since 2008, but this week the liquidity crunch was so bad that the Fed felt forced to conduct emergency overnight repurchase agreement operations on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

    And then on Friday the Fed announced that it will continue to conduct emergency interventions “on a daily basis for the next three weeks”…

    The New York Federal Reserve Bank said Friday it will inject billions into the US financial plumbing on a daily basis for the next three weeks in an effort to prevent a spike in short-term interest rates.

    The Fed will offer up to $75 billion a day in repurchase agreements — exchanging secure assets for cash for very short periods — through October 10, it said in a statement.

    In addition, it will offer three 14-day “repo” operations of at least $30 billion each.

    In essence, the “plumbing” of our financial system has gotten all jammed up, and calling out Roto-Rooter is simply not going to get the job done.

    Of course Fed officials are trying to assure us that this is no big deal and that they have everything under control.

    But if all this is no big deal, why haven’t they had to conduct such emergency interventions for the last 11 years?

    And this comes at a time when the deterioration of the U.S. economy appears to be accelerating. In fact, on Friday St. Louis Fed President James Bullard publicly admitted that the U.S. manufacturing industry appears to already be in a recession…

    The US manufacturing sector “already appears in recession” and overall economic growth is expected to slow “in the near horizon,” St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank president James Bullard said on Friday, explaining why he dissented at a recent Fed meeting and wanted a deeper, half-percentage-point rate cut.

    That is a stunning admission, because normally Fed officials try very hard to maintain the narrative that everything is wonderful because they are doing such a great job of manipulating the economy.

    The American people as a whole are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the economy as well, and Gallup just released some very alarming numbers…

    Americans’ confidence in the economy has become less rosy this month as Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index fell to +17 from August’s +24 reading, marking the lowest level since the government shutdown ended in January.

    At the same time, the public is evenly divided over the likelihood of a recession in the next year. The current expectation of a recession is nine points higher than it was in October 2007, just two months before the Great Recession began but slightly below a February 2001 reading, one month before that eight-month-long recession.

    Every economic indicator that we have is telling us that big trouble is heading our way, but most Americans are partying instead of preparing.

    U.S. financial markets have never been more primed for a crash than they are at this moment, and so many of the exact same patterns that we witnessed just prior to the last recession are happening again right now.

    Over the past few months, my wife and I have felt a sense of urgency unlike anything that we have ever felt before. You may have noticed a difference in our tone and in the types of stories that we have been sharing. Everything that we have been doing has been leading up to this. The time of “the perfect storm” is here, and most Americans won’t understand what is happening.

    The storm clouds are looming and disaster could strike at any time. This is one of the most critical times in the history of our nation, and most Americans are completely unprepared for what is going to happen next.

    About the author: Michael Snyder is a nationally-syndicated writer, media personality and political activist. He is the author of four books including Get Prepared Now, The Beginning Of The End and Living A Life That Really Matters. His articles are originally published on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News. From there, his articles are republished on dozens of other prominent websites. If you would like to republish his articles, please feel free to do so. The more people that see this information the better, and we need to wake more people up while there is still time.

    http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...aos-in-october

  15. #15
    Why Does The Federal Reserve Keep Slamming The Panic Button Over And Over If Everything Is Okay?
    S
    eptember 18, 2019 by Michael Snyder

    What in the world is the Federal Reserve doing? For months the Fed has been trying to publicly convince us that the U.S. economy is “strong”, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently unequivocally stated that “the Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession”, but the Fed’s actions tell a completely different story. If the U.S. economy really is performing well, any economics textbook will tell you that the Fed should not be reducing interest rates. Interest rate cuts should be saved for times when the economy is in serious trouble, and using up all of your ammunition before a downturn has begun is simply foolish. And the Federal Reserve continues to insist that the financial system is functioning normally, but meanwhile things are spinning so wildly out of control that they felt forced to announce overnight repurchase agreement operations for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. We haven’t seen this sort of emergency intervention since the last financial crisis, but the Fed’s message to the general public is that “all is well”.

    Unfortunately, the truth is that all is not well, and we continue to get more troubling economic news with each passing day.

    In a desperate attempt to inject some vigor back into the U.S. economy, the Fed cut interest rates for the second month in a row on Wednesday…

    For the second time in two months, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday agreed to press down on the economy’s accelerator to keep the 10-year-old expansion chugging along.

    A divided Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate by another quarter percentage point to a range of 1.75% to 2% in an effort to stave off a possible recession triggered by a global economic slowdown and the U.S. trade war with China.

    Of course this wasn’t enough to please President Trump, and shortly after the rate cut was announced he posted the following on Twitter…

    Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve Fail Again. No “guts,” no sense, no vision! A terrible communicator!

    Apparently Trump wanted an even larger rate cut with the promise of more rate cuts in the future, but if the U.S. economy really is in good shape we shouldn’t be having any rate cuts at all. This was a panic move by the Fed, and they are going to find themselves very short on ammunition when things really start to get crazy.

    And conducting overnight repurchase agreement operations for three days in a row also reeks of desperation. If you are not familiar with the repo market, the following is how Yahoo News described the key role it plays for our financial system…

    Financial institutions use money markets to borrow for very short periods, from one day to a year, a crucial function to keep the gears of the economy running.

    In so-called repurchase or “repo” agreements, banks borrow by putting up assets like Treasury notes as collateral and then repay the loans with interest the following day.

    In a fit of panic, the Fed injected $53,000,000,000 into the system on Tuesday and another $75,000,000,000 on Wednesday.

    But it turns out that Wednesday’s injection wasn’t nearly large enough. The following comes from Zero Hedge…

    20 minutes after today’s repo operation began, it concluded and there was some bad news in it: as we feared, yesterday’s take up of the Fed’s repo operation which peaked at $53.2 billion has expanded substantially, and according to the Fed, today there was a whopping $80.05BN in bids submitted, an increase of $27 billion, or 50% more than yesterday.

    It also meant that since the operation – which is capped at $75BN – was oversubscribed by over $5BN, that there was one or more participants who did not get up to €5 billion in the critical liquidity they needed, and that the Fed will see a chorus of demands by everyone (because like with the discount window, nobody will dare to be singled out) to either expand the size of its operations, implement a fixed operation and/or – most likely as per the ICAP note yesterday – transition to permanent open market operations, i.e. QE

    And then we learned that the Fed had announced that they were going to inject another $75,000,000,000 on Thursday.

    This is utter insanity, and to many it is clear evidence that the Fed is losing control…

    “This just doesn’t look good. You set your target. You’re the all-powerful Fed. You’re supposed to control it and you can’t on Fed day. It looks bad. This has been a tough run for Powell,” said Michael Schumacher, director, rate strategy, at Wells Fargo.

    We haven’t seen anything like this since the financial crisis of 2008, and many are deeply concerned about what will happen as liquidity demands reach a peak as we approach the end of the month.

    As our financial system continues to become increasingly unstable, is this sort of Fed intervention going to become a regular thing?

    Of course there are some analysts that are already projecting that a massive new round of quantitative easing is inevitable at this point, and there is a very good chance that they are right.

    Meanwhile, the “real economy” continues to deteriorate as well, and one new survey has found that a majority of U.S. CFOs now expect our economy to tumble into a new recession by the end of next year…

    Chief financial officers in the United States have started to prepare themselves and their finances for a recession. For the first time in several years, economic uncertainty is now their lead concern, replacing worries about the difficulty of hiring and retaining talented workers.

    According to CNN, 53 percent of chief financial officers expect the United States to enter a recession prior to the 2020 presidential election. That information was sourced from the Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook survey released on Wednesday. And two-thirds predict a downturn by the end of next year.

    Unfortunately, we may not have to wait that long, and according to John Williams of shadowstats.com if honest numbers were being used they would show that the U.S. economy is already in a recession right now.

    For the moment, most Americans are still buying the narrative that everything is going to be just fine, but that will soon change.


    The pace at which things are deteriorating is beginning to accelerate, and the Fed is going to have to hit the panic button many more times in the months ahead.

    About the author: Michael Snyder is a nationally-syndicated writer, media personality and political activist. He is the author of four books including Get Prepared Now, The Beginning Of The End and Living A Life That Really Matters. His articles are originally published on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News. From there, his articles are republished on dozens of other prominent websites. If you would like to republish his articles, please feel free to do so. The more people that see this information the better, and we need to wake more people up while there is still time.

    http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...ything-is-okay

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    W. Georgia
    Posts
    7,047
    They're Coming To Take Me Away Ha Ha
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3iDl2zwF8TM 1:14

  17. #17
    Shadow Government Statistics



    DAILY UPDATE (September 20th to 23rd) NY Fed Has Announced Daily Systemic-Liquidity Infusions Until October 10th, Opening an Expanded Quantitative Easing Option for the October 30th FOMC / September 18th FOMC Cut Rates by the Expected Quarter Point, As the Broad Economy Continued to Tumble / More-Aggressive Easing Has to Follow
    / August 2019 Existing-Home Sales Gained; Housing Starts Showed an Extremely Rare, Statistically Significant Monthly Gain / Dominant Single-Unit Building Permits Held on Early Track for a Third Consecutive Quarterly Annual Decline / Far from the Happy Media Hype Over Strong Monthly Gains in August Production, Manufacturing and Mining, Annual Growth Continued to Collapse in a Manner Not Seen Since the Onset of the Production-Manufacturing-Mining Recession of 2015, With Fed Funds Then at Zero / Third-Quarter 2019 Manufacturing Held on Track to Drop into Its First Year-to-Year Decline Since that Mini-Recession, With Annual Growth Rates in Aggregate Production and Mining also Declining to Their Lowest Levels Since 2015 / August CASS Freight Index™ Contracted for the Ninth Straight Month / Although the Nominal 0.36% Monthly Retail Sales Gain in August Beat Expectations, It Was Not Meaningfully Different Than Zero / Real Average Weekly Earnings Held on Track for a Third-Quarter Annual Decline / After Three Years of Gains, 2018 U.S. Real Median Household Income Was Stagnant / Extreme Income Variance Held in Place, Which Tends to Lead Financial and Economic Crashes

    • FOMC - The Fed Eased as Expected, Despite Rapidly Deteriorating Economic and Financial Conditions (Federal Reserve, September 18th). The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut its targeted Federal Funds rate by a quarter point to a range of 1.75% to 2.00%, as expected. Such was the second easing of the current cycle, following a quarter-point rate cut on July 31st. At that earlier meeting, the FOMC also ended its balance sheet liquidation in August, two months ahead of what had been scheduled, allowing for renewed Quantitative Easing.

    Contrary to the FOMC’s current story of nearly perfect economic and inflation conditions, with FOMC economic forecasts revising minimally higher into the future, the U.S. economy continues in deepening recession, with likely, increasing financial-market turmoil in the near future. Headline recognition of the unfolding and intensifying downturn should gain markedly in weeks and months ahead, as will be explored in pending ShadowStats Commentaries. ShadowStats predicts further, more-aggressive Fed easing at or before the next scheduled FOMC meeting of October 30th, potentially including renewed Quantitative Easing. [Added Sep 20: renewed QE is suggested by the New York Fed’s just-announced, expanded daily Repo operations (systemic-liquidity injections) through October 10th and beyond.]

    • L A T E S T .. N U M B E R S .. August 2019 Existing-Home Sales Rose for the Second Month (National Association of Realtors [see details and press release at www.nar.realtor under research/housing statistics], September 19th). Existing-Home Sales gained 1.3% In August 2019, following a monthly gain of 2.5% in July, The NAR publishes the highest-quality indicator available of Home Sales activity.

    (September 18) August 2019 New Residential Construction: “Booming” Housing Starts Largely Were Nonsensically Volatile, as Usual, but Stronger Growth in the Building Permits Series Was Statistically Meaningful (Census Bureau, HUD). Headline August Housing Starts gained sharply, up by 12.3% +/- 10.2% at the 90% confidence interval, on top of mixed prior period revisions. While the monthly gain was meaningfully different from 0%, for once, not one of the changes in the subsidiary series was significant, and the annual gain of 6.6% (+/- 11.6%) was not.

    The Building Permits series, however, which leads Housing Starts, showed statistically meaningful monthly and annual gains of 8.4% and 1.5%, in aggregate, as well as by Single- and Multiple-Unit categories. The dominant and most-stable Single-Unit Permits series, gained 4.5% both month-to-month and year-to-year. Nonetheless, 3q2019 Single-Unit activity continued on early track for its third consecutive quarterly year-to-year decline.

    (September 17) August 2019 Industrial Production and Its Key Manufacturing and Mining Sectors Showed Solid Month-to-Month Gains, Likely to Be Used to Alibi a Minimal FOMC Easing, While Year-to-Year Growth Continued to Collapse in a Pattern Not Seen Since the 2015-2017 Mini-Recession (Federal Reserve Board, September 17th). August 2019 Industrial Production gained 0.65% in the month, versus a revised decline of 0.13% (-0.13%) [previously 0.22% (-0.22%)] in July; encompassing an August gain of 0.51% in Manufacturing versus a revised decline of 0.39% (-0.39%) [previously 0.37% (-0.37%) in July, an August gain of 1.43% in Mining, versus a revised decline of 1.45% (-1.45%) [previously 1.80% (-1.80%)] in July. The August Utilities monthly gain of 0.58% and annual drop of 0.72% (-0.72%) were no more than usual random volatility tied to variable weather.

    On the Manufacturing front, August Capacity Utilization notched off its 21-month low of 77.5% to 77.9%, still deep in recession territory. Quarterly revisions showed an unrevised annualized 2q2019 contraction of 3.09% (-3.09%) [previously 2.25% (-2.25%)] in the dominant Manufacturing sector, and an upwardly revised quarterly gain of 7.87% [previously 7.39%] in the Mining sector. The second-quarter decline in aggregate Industrial Production deepened to 2.14% (-2.14%) [previously 2.10% (-2.10%), initially 1.18% (-1.18%)]. Based on two months of reporting, the early trend in year-to-year third-quarter 2019 growth slowed from 1.18% to 0.26% for Industrial Production, Manufacturing slowed from 0.03% to a decline of 0.55% (-0.55%), with Mining slowing from 9.89% to 4.75%.

    (September 13) August 2019 CASS Freight Index™ in its Ninth Straight Month of Annual Decline and Downtrending 12-Month Moving Average (www.CassInfo.com). The Index declined year-to-Year for the ninth straight month in August, down by 3.0% (-3.0%), following a decline of 5.9% (-5.9%) in July, paralleling the annual declines at the Great Recession onset. Per CASS in its August report: “we repeat our message from last three months: the shipments index has gone from “warning of a potential slowdown” to “signaling an economic contraction.” Separately, the Index’s 12-month moving average declined month-to-month for its ninth straight month. Those year-to-year and 12-month-moving-average metrics neutralize seasonality in this unadjusted series. ShadowStats regularly follows and analyzes the CASS Index as a highest-quality coincident/leading indicator of underlying economic reality. We thank CASS for their permission to graph and to use their numbers in our Commentaries.

    (September 10) Following Three Years of Gains, 2018 Real Median U.S. Household Income “Was Not Statistically Different from 2017,” Consistent With the FOMC’s Tightening of Consumer Liquidity; 2018 Income Variance Held at Extremely Dangerous Levels (Census Bureau). In the context of continuing revisions to process and reporting, which has left much of the historical data no longer comparable with today’s headlines, Census advised that 2018 Real Median Household Income was not significantly different from 2017. Further, extreme levels of income distribution and variance, which historically tend to trigger financial panics and economic turmoil, broadly were not meaningfully changed.

    • A L E R T –- [This section, written pre-September 18 FOMC, will be updated fully, following publication of Commentary No. 985-C] Mounting Global Political Instabilities and a Confluence of Unstable and Deteriorating Global Economic Conditions Foreshadow Increasingly Negative, Near-Term, Financial-Market Turmoil. ShadowStats’ already negative outlook for the domestic U.S. economy and financial markets has shifted increasingly to the downside in the last couple of months (see Flash Updates No. 3 to No. 8 and related headlines in top left column). Beyond continued sharp weakening in key domestic numbers such as Industrial Production and the CASS Freight Index™, and increasingly major downside benchmark revisions to headline economic data, the worsening financial-market outlook also encompasses continued marked and rapid deterioration in unstable domestic and global political circumstances.

    ShadowStats’ Recession Forecast Remains in Place, With U.S. Economic Activity Still Sinking; Watch for Continued Flight from the Dollar and Stocks into Gold. Beyond intensified near-term market risks, the ShadowStats broad outlook in the weeks and months ahead remains for: (1) a rapidly intensifying U.S. economic downturn, reflected in (2) mounting selling pressure on the U.S. dollar, against currencies such as the Swiss Franc, (3) continued flight to safety in precious metals, with upside pressures on gold and silver prices, and (4) increasingly high risk of extraordinarily heavy stock-market selling.

    • P O S T I N G .. S C H E D U L E S .. Postings of SHADOWSTATS CONCURRENT ANALYSES OF NEW DATA: August 2019 New-Home Sales, will be released by the Census Bureau, Wednesday, September 25th at 10:00 a.m. ET. ShadowStats analysis should post by 1:00 p.m. ET.

    SHADOWSTATS COMMENTARIES – PENDING POSTINGS: Special Commentary No. 985, has been divided into three parts, No. 985-A covering the underlying economy going into the FOMC Meeting, No. 985-B reviewing the FOMC actions and prospects and No. 985-C, updating the financial-market ALERT. Those three missives will be posted sequentially, with No. 985-A planned in the next couple of days. Subscribers receive direct concurrent e-mail advice of actual postings, along with related links.

    • VIEWING EARLIER COMMENTARIES. All ShadowStats postings of May 31, 2019 (Bullet Edition No. 11) and before - back to 2004 are open to everyone, accessible by clicking on “Archives,” at the bottom of the left-hand column of this ShadowStats homepage, and then on the “All Commentaries” option in the right-hand column.

    • ALTERNATE DATA TAB provides the latest headline and exclusive ShadowStats Alternate Estimates of Inflation, GDP, Unemployment, Money Supply (Including the ShadowStats Ongoing M3), and the ShadowStats Financial-Weighted U.S. Dollar.

    Best Wishes -- John Williams


    http://www.shadowstats.com/

  18. #18
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    N. Minnesota
    Posts
    13,980
    Not saying that the bottom couldn't drop out at any time, but that's why a person should be READY for it to drop out at any time.
    At least as ready as you can be, and still live your life to the fullest possible.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Maidenhead
    Posts
    28,973
    Quote Originally Posted by SSTemplar View Post
    Been ready for 20 years. A nothing burger so far.
    So have I. But, 10 years ago wasn't a nothing burger was it? Lot's of people lost their shirts and their homes as well as their jobs. What is coming is 2008 on steroids. We could see the dissolution of the United States as we know it this time around. I have never seen the country more fragmented between the entitlement class on one hand and now the Marxists on the other hand. Add everything together and what do you think is going to happen in the next crisis? We either see it coming or we don't and we either get ready or we don't. A lot of people that saw 2008 coming got out in time and protected themselves. Short term memory can be a curse because the same people that didn't see it coming last time don't see this coming either.
    What is the lake of fire? What is it's purpose? Is the lake of fire eternal hell? Is there any hope of escape for those cast into this lake?
    http://bible-truths.com/lake1.html

  20. #20
    Your economy in the U.S. is the same as my economy in Australia. Both countries have everybody drowning in DEBT. And now they meaning the politicians want us to spend to save the economy.

    Now both our export markets are also bankrupt so apart from food nobody wants our products more or less.

    So guess what is about to happen?

    The party is over huh?



  21. #21
    The European Central Bank’s ‘Bazooka’ is Back. This Time, There’s Less of a Bang
    By Geoffrey Smith
    September 12, 2019


    Quantitative easing—the policy that dragged the world out of the Great Recession—is back, but it’s a shadow of its former self.

    On Thursday, the ECB became the first of the world’s major central banks to fire up the money-printing presses in response to the global slowdown triggered by the U.S.-China trade conflict. The last round of easing began in 2015, and came to be known as ECB President Mario Draghi’s monetary policy “Bazooka”. The program only formally ended in December of last year.

    The bank also cut its key deposit rate to a new record low of -0.5% and announced a handful of measures designed to keep creaky Eurozone banks from collapsing as ever-lower interest rates—rates are now negative across most of the euro zone—suffocate their businesses. Meanwhile, growth slowed to a meager 0.2% in the second quarter, and the currency union is largest economy, Germany, is on the verge of recession.

    However, the package’s impact on financial markets was muted, coming across as half-hearted—a reflection of what appeared to be significant internal resistance against the program—although it leaves room for incoming President Christine Lagarde to make her mark by adding to it after she takes over from the outgoing Mario Draghi in November.

    Quantitative easing, or QE, is a policy where a central bank creates money to buy bonds, increasing the money supply and depressing market interest rates, with the hope that it will stimulate demand.

    The Frankfurt-based bank said it will start the practice again in November at a rate of 20 billion euros ($22 billion) a month. That’s only a quarter of what its previous QE program peaked at in 2016, before tapering to zero at the end of last year. However, in contrast to the first program, the ECB said the new one would be open-ended, carrying on for as long as necessary for inflation to get back to its medium-term target of just under 2%.

    That could take some time. The bank cut its forecasts for inflation over the next two and a half years on Thursday, and now expects it to rise to only 1.5% by 2021.

    The package creates quite a conundrum for the Federal Reserve, when its own policy-making committee meets next Tuesday and Wednesday.

    Petr Krpata, chief foreign exchange and rates strategist for ING, argued that the ECB’s action would create a “structurally suppressed” euro/dollar exchange rate by creating looser financial conditions without stimulating the eurozone economy to improve the growth outlook.

    Krpata said he expects the dollar to strengthen against the euro through the end of the year, settling into a range between $1.05 and $1.10. At its current level of $1.1073, the euro has already lost 5.3% of its value against the dollar over the last 12 months.

    That’s red rag to a bull in the White House. On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted that ECB Chief Mario Draghi and his colleagues “are trying, and succeeding, in depreciating the Euro against the VERY strong Dollar, hurting U.S. exports.”

    Trump then renewed his attacks on the Fed’s refusal to cut interest rates more aggressively, arguing that the eurozone government “get paid to borrow money, while we are paying interest!”

    Things weren’t made any easier for Jerome Powell’s cohorts by conflicting media reports suggesting, then denying, that the Trump administration is preparing a temporary trade truce with China. Powell has argued that trade uncertainty is one of the biggest drags on the U.S. economy right now, and removing that uncertainty would both support the economy and, by logical extension, reduce the need for further U.S. rate cuts.

    The Europeans, of course, see it all differently. Confronted in real time during his press conference with Trump’s tweet, Draghi fell back on the ECB’s old and well-loved line that “we have a mandate: we pursue price stability and we don’t target exchange rates.” When asked about the possibility of U.S. intervention to weaken the dollar, he warned implicitly that Trump would be taking on the whole world, noting that the “G20 consensus” was still firmly against competitive devaluations.

    But the ECB’s target audience for its measures was not Washington, but rather eurozone governments. Glossing over internal differences over whether to restart quantitative easing, Draghi said that “there was unanimity that fiscal policy should become the main instrument” in supporting the economy. In a thinly veiled jab at the German government, which this week outlined plans for yet another balanced budget, he pointed out that a number of German research institutes are saying the country is already sliding into recession, and called the faltering at Europe’s economic powerhouse “a case for timely and effective action.”

    Without help from higher government spending, the ECB’s action is unlikely to achieve much, Berenberg Bank chief economist Holger Schmieding said in a research note. However, he noted, “waiting for a big fiscal boost would have been like waiting for Godot.”

    “Doing nothing in the face of a significant economic slowdown would also have entailed risks,” he added.

    More must-read stories from Fortune:
    —Deutsche Bank CEO on European Central Bank: “Negative rates ruin the financial system”



    https://fortune.com/2019/09/12/the-e...ess-of-a-bang/

  22. #22
    "Ah, but exposure to America is not an issue is it? After all, America is the global superpower, AAA rated and solid gold, isn’t it?

    Urmmm, no.

    A fascinating insight into the US shadow banking markets was revealed by The Financial Times this week:

    “There are a lot of parallels with the subprime crisis,” (head of a credit hedge fund) concedes. “As long as [companies] can keep refinancing things are fine. But if there are redemptions then it means some people won’t get a seat on the musical chair. Someone will be crying.” [Chuck Doyle, Managing Director of Business Capital] says that lending standards have improved a little but is confident that the recent boom will end in tears — especially in the shadiest “merchant cash advance” part of the market, where companies get a quick shot of money by selling their receivables at a discount. “MCAs are the crack cocaine of the credit market,” he says. “It’s going to get interesting, for sure.”

    The rise of shadow banking in the US markets is made clear by this chart from the FT article:






    And is best summarised by this comment, again from the head of a credit hedge fund:

    “They’re lending to complete shit at a spread of 100-150 basis points above high yield.”

    That doesn’t sound good, does it?

    All in all, we have a $50 trillion shadow banking challenge, which equates to around 15 percent of all global financial assets. If it were to all meltdown? Well, of course it won’t, will it?"

    .................................................. ...........................................

    About Chris M Skinner
    Chris M Skinner
    Chris Skinner is best known as an independent commentator on the financial markets through his blog, TheFinanser.com, as author of the bestselling book Digital Bank, and Chair of the European networking forum the Financial Services Club. He has been voted one of the most influential people in banking by The Financial Brand (as well as one of the best blogs), a FinTech Titan (Next Bank), one of the Fintech Leaders you need to follow (City AM, Deluxe and Jax Finance), as well as one of the Top 40 most influential people in financial technology by the Wall Street Journal’s Financial News. To learn more click here...


    https://thefinanser.com/2019/02/next...d-corner.html/

  23. #23
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    W. Georgia
    Posts
    7,047
    Any "crash" will be orchestrated and shortlived for the sole purpose of tilting the presidential election in favor of Democrats and another opportunity for bankers to steal what they can while they can.

    We the people will scream and holler and the politicians will all get the vapors but the bankers will always go home with the loot.

  24. #24
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Location
    Southwest (enjoy it!)
    Posts
    4,660
    But, 10 years ago wasn't a nothing burger was it? Lot's of people lost their shirts and their homes as well as their jobs.
    Yes and no. It hurt some people for sure but many people not so much. Did not really hurt any in my extended family.

    What is coming this time? Yes it could be very bad but that is just a guess. I kind of think it will be bad this time around. I know many people think this (but that does not make it true).
    I have dropped a bunch of money this month to better get ready. I will do more if things decline. But I always remember that the most likely scenario is for nothing really bad to happen.

  25. #25
    Join Date
    Jun 2018
    Location
    Mississippi
    Posts
    3,582
    Quote Originally Posted by Hfcomms View Post
    So have I. But, 10 years ago wasn't a nothing burger was it? Lot's of people lost their shirts and their homes as well as their jobs. What is coming is 2008 on steroids. We could see the dissolution of the United States as we know it this time around. I have never seen the country more fragmented between the entitlement class on one hand and now the Marxists on the other hand. Add everything together and what do you think is going to happen in the next crisis? We either see it coming or we don't and we either get ready or we don't. A lot of people that saw 2008 coming got out in time and protected themselves. Short term memory can be a curse because the same people that didn't see it coming last time don't see this coming either.
    This!
    Sherree

  26. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by foreverkeeps View Post
    Please Lord, don't let things get TOO bad before we get a decent mortgage rate and close on our hopefully last home - a condo for our retirement years - set to close October 29th!!! Please.
    Hate to burst your bubble, but a condo is one of the worst homes you could possibly choose if you are expecting a SHTF scenario. Condos and apartments of any sort are "hive living" and are totally dependent on outside inputs to be viable. To live in an apartment means that you accept that your water, sewerage and electricity will never be interrupted. Additionally, you will not be able to easily or legally store diesel or gasoline in your residence. If your condo or apartment is on an upper floor, you have to accept that you'll be taking the stairs in any power outage. Second or third floor, maybe doable for someone of advanced age. Eigth or ninth floor, not so much.

    Good luck to you.

    Best
    Doc

  27. #27
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    North Central Louisiana
    Posts
    8,885


    Judy

  28. #28
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    North Georgia Mountains
    Posts
    1,422
    Another series of doom articles posted by CC. One day he will be correct.

    If we are to have another 2008 type of event and we are to get a stock market crash then a little bit of advise.

    Do not go into the stock market crash holding mutual funds. Also do not go into the crash holding any speculative stocks.

    Try to hold what are considered conservative stocks which are usually what are considered blue chip companies which have a long history or paying dividends. Look back on how those companies did around 2008. Did they cut their dividends, freeze them or even raise them. Freeze or raise is good. A cut could go wither way but I personally would avoid and company who cut their dividend.

    I have mixed feelings on owning bonds. Only in quality companies. Expect the value of the bond to decline but for it to continue to generate the income you had previously received.

    Last bit of advice is do not sell your investments at the bottom. It only locks in your loses. If you own quality dividend paying stocks, or bonds, then the total value of your investments is only a number. A number not as important as the income from dividends or interest payments that those investments generate for you.

    I could go on with cutting back on your current spending and start to increase your savings. Try to increase your emergency reserves to 2 years of necessary expenses if possible. But hopefully these are viewed as common sense for most of the folks here.

    tbd

    Edit - Doc you should have also mentioned a downside for condos is the monthly homeowners fee which they charge. In a severe downturn units get abandoned and the need to collect fees gets shifted to the units which are still occupied. HOA's in condos are also quick to file liens to cover missed payments.

  29. #29
    Join Date
    Apr 2002
    Location
    WI
    Posts
    2,573
    Quote Originally Posted by nomifyle View Post


    Judy
    Exactly!

    Same old doom-and-gloomers who have been pushin this to sell whatever they're selling this week.

    So you've been listening a lot; so what?

    By listening for the last forty years you could come to the same conclusion.

    Blah, blah, blah.
    Sub-Zero

  30. #30
    Join Date
    Oct 2001
    Location
    Green County, Kentucky
    Posts
    10,815
    Quote Originally Posted by Doc1 View Post
    Hate to burst your bubble, but a condo is one of the worst homes you could possibly choose if you are expecting a SHTF scenario. Condos and apartments of any sort are "hive living" and are totally dependent on outside inputs to be viable. To live in an apartment means that you accept that your water, sewerage and electricity will never be interrupted. Additionally, you will not be able to easily or legally store diesel or gasoline in your residence. If your condo or apartment is on an upper floor, you have to accept that you'll be taking the stairs in any power outage. Second or third floor, maybe doable for someone of advanced age. Eigth or ninth floor, not so much.

    Good luck to you.

    Best
    Doc
    Have to agree with Doc on this one! Is it too late to change your minds?

    Kathleen
    Behold, these are the mere edges of His ways, and how small a whisper we hear of Him.
    Job 26:14

    wickr ID freeholder45

  31. #31
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    N. Minnesota
    Posts
    13,980
    Quote Originally Posted by China Connection View Post
    Your economy in the U.S. is the same as my economy in Australia. Both countries have everybody drowning in DEBT. And now they meaning the politicians want us to spend to save the economy.

    Now both our export markets are also bankrupt so apart from food nobody wants our products more or less.

    So guess what is about to happen?

    The party is over huh?

    We got food and at least a few hundred years worth of oil. More if we don't send it offshore in trade.
    We eat. We stay warm, transport goods and drive our vehicles.

  32. #32
    It is so funny to see those who do not get it. Sure it has gone on for a number of years. The Lehman's crash should have spread and a currency reset should have happened. However the game has just continued.

    Deutsche Bank is in more or less the same position as Lehman Brothers and the Germany Industrial base is in bad condition. Just this one bank makes Lehman look small in size.

    Europe is in a mess, Japan is also, China is as well and so on. So with no strong economy anywhere things can only head one way. Throw more cash at the problem and hyperinflation will come about. Anyway put off the prep and suffer.

    .................................................. .................................................. ......................


    On Sept. 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. With $639 billion in assets and $619 billion in debt, Lehman's bankruptcy filing was the largest in history, as its assets far surpassed those of previous bankrupt giants such as WorldCom and Enron.Jun 7, 2019
    The Collapse of Lehman Brothers: A Case Study - Investopedia

    https://www.investopedia.com › articles › economics › lehman-brothers-colla...

  33. #33
    1)I know it's a Facebook link

    2) I know its Glen Beck

    https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=880729538967084
    15:54 in length

    Update on the Fed Reserve's bank bailout through repo
    The Federal Reserve has pumped $75 billion into the banking sector for the last 4 days in a row, and they're doing it again tonight. That equals more than half of the $700 billion bank bailout, or TARP bill from 2009 ... and the banks are still asking for more.
    Why isn't anyone talking about this?
    Hold fast to your dreams.
    For without dreams
    life is a broken-winged bird
    that cannot fly.

  34. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by WalknTrot View Post
    We got food and at least a few hundred years worth of oil. More if we don't send it offshore in trade.
    We eat. We stay warm, transport goods and drive our vehicles.
    We got to crash. It has been predicted here on TB2K and I believe it. But it won't be a real crash until the banks close. That will be solid proof that we have a crash. I read that here on TB2K and I believe it. So I am waiting for the POTUS to declare a bank holiday. When that comes, I will know we are in a real crash.
    "The misfortune of many is the consolation of fools" Ancient proverb

  35. #35
    Bank holiday, posession is nine tenths the law, debt wiped away Jubilee, and now just take the Mark of the Beast and all is well in the new digital age where everyone has a pot full of the new digital currency in their account. What could be better. Shopping spree here we come. It's the way to rebuild the economy. Spread the new free money.....

  36. #36
    The minister David Wilkerson made a prophesy about 30 years back that banking trouble would brake out in Europe then Japan followed by a six month banking holiday in the U.S. I can see it coming to pass and soon.


    David Wilkerson's Vision Of Mexico Defaulting Resulting In An ...

    https://whygodreallyexists.com › ... › 1. Prophetic Visions
    David Wilkerson's Vision Of Mexico Defaulting Resulting In An American BANK HOLIDAY Where Bank Accounts Could NOT Be Accessed For 6 MONTHS. By.
    WATCH! Prophetic Word from David Wilkerson, Nations and ...

    https://vfnkb.com › 2016/02 › prophetic-word-from-david-wilkerson
    Feb 9, 2016 - Prophetic Word from David Wilkerson, Nations and Economies are in Free-fall; American Banks will Declare a Bank Holiday for 6 Months?
    David Wilkerson prophecy about America and worlds financial ...

    www.sermonindex.net › modules › newbb › viewtopic
    Jul 2, 2011 - David Wilkerson was more than a prophet, he was a Seer and ... to be a 'bank holiday' and you won't be able to get a dime for six months. Now
    Last edited by China Connection; 09-22-2019 at 02:01 AM.

  37. #37
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    North Georgia Mountains
    Posts
    1,422
    Quote Originally Posted by China Connection View Post
    The minister David Wilkerson made a prophesy about 30 years back that banking trouble would brake out in Europe then Japan followed by a six month banking holiday in the U.S. I can see it coming to pass and soon.

    We are not going to have a 6 month banking holiday in the US. The economy would shut down if the banks close for much longer then a week.

    Remember most banking is performed by digits and not cash so even a currency reset shouldn't close the banks for much longer then a couple of days and could possibly be done over a weekend. The bigger issue is a run on cash. This is why banks delay openings or even close as the physical cash they have on hand get depleted.

    Lehman's was a different issue and got caught up in a credit squeeze where they couldn't roll over their debt and the government for some reason didn't step up to help them like they had done for a couple of other brokerage firms like Bear Stearns that month. Remember also that Lehman's was heavily invested in mortgages and mortgages securities which got killed in price when it was realized that those mortgages which had been bundle into bonds were not even close to rated correctly by the rating agency's. They were also hurt because the stock price dropped so fast and so far that no outside investor wanted to provide a cash infusion for an equity stake like Buffet did for BAC and Goldman Sachs. There are a couple of good hollywood movies about the subject and if I remember correctly 'The Big Short' was one of the better ones.

    tbd

  38. #38
    Join Date
    Jun 2018
    Location
    Mississippi
    Posts
    3,582
    Quote Originally Posted by Ractivist View Post
    Bank holiday, posession is nine tenths the law, debt wiped away Jubilee, and now just take the Mark of the Beast and all is well in the new digital age where everyone has a pot full of the new digital currency in their account. What could be better. Shopping spree here we come. It's the way to rebuild the economy. Spread the new free money.....
    You're right, Ractivist. The crash is coming to make the way for the "Mark of the Beast". Then, all will be well, or so some will think.
    Sherree

  39. #39
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    NC
    Posts
    1,474
    Quote Originally Posted by Doc1 View Post
    Hate to burst your bubble, but a condo is one of the worst homes you could possibly choose if you are expecting a SHTF scenario. Condos and apartments of any sort are "hive living" and are totally dependent on outside inputs to be viable. To live in an apartment means that you accept that your water, sewerage and electricity will never be interrupted. Additionally, you will not be able to easily or legally store diesel or gasoline in your residence. If your condo or apartment is on an upper floor, you have to accept that you'll be taking the stairs in any power outage. Second or third floor, maybe doable for someone of advanced age. Eigth or ninth floor, not so much.

    Good luck to you.

    Best
    Doc
    It's an end unit townhome. Each building has like 6 condos. The end units are the only ones that have a master bedroom downstairs and two bedrooms and a bath up.

    Pretty small and part of a golf community. Grocery store and about everything else right behind us.

    We cannot afford to stay in our current house when hubby retires. He is 65+. We are selling before the housing bubble bursts again.. Lots of equity, which allows us to put almost 1/3 down on the new condo.

  40. #40
    As Gerald Celente says the easy loan money is drying up so what next?

    .................................................. .....................................


    Gerald Celente: “Monetary Methadone” Is Running Out, Crash Looms

    Coming up Gerald Celente, top trends forecaster and publisher of the Trends Journal joins me for an explosive conversation on the state of the markets, gold, the upcoming presidential election, and why he believes the next recession will be one for the ages. Gerald also reveals what you should be doing right now to prepare for it. So, don’t miss my conversation with Gerald Celente, coming up after this week’s market update.

    As markets close out the month of August, precious metals investors are scoring some big summer gains. The standout performer has been silver, surging over 15% during the month.

    On Thursday, the white metal spiked to nearly $18.70 an ounce before pulling back in afternoon trading. As of this Friday recording, silver prices come in $18.43, up 5.4% for the week.

    Silver has vastly outperformed gold since early July. That’s a healthy sign for the broader precious metals bull market. The gold to silver ratio is coming down from a quarter century high and likely has much further to fall as the bull market progresses.

    For the week, gold is essentially unchanged to bring spot prices to $1,530 an ounce.

    And speaking of ratios, the gold-to-platinum ratio is also coming down from extreme heights as the automotive metal finally kicks into gear. This week, the platinum market broke out to a new high for the year. It is up a whopping 8.8% since last Friday’s close to trade at $937 per ounce.

    And finally, palladium is surging here today and is up 5.3% now for the week to trade at $1,543.

    Looking ahead to next month, metals investors will await a near-certain rate cut from the Federal Reserve. There is an outside chance the Fed could cut by 50 basis points instead of the usual 25.

    Everybody knows that President Donald Trump favors larger scale reductions in interest rates. He wants to stimulate the economy and stock market ahead of next year’s election.

    Fed policymakers are supposed to stay out of politics and make their decisions based solely on the economic data before them. But it would be naïve to believe they don’t harbor political biases.

    They have been under relentless attack by President Trump. They see his attacks as posing a threat to the so-called “independence” of the Federal Reserve. They may even fear that if he is re-elected he will threaten the existence of the Fed as an institution.

    Could the Federal Reserve be deliberately withholding stimulus to try to get Trump defeated? It may sound like just another baseless conspiracy theory. But, in fact, there is some basis for believing Fed officials have the motive and opportunity to sabotage the Trump economy.

    Don’t take it from me. Take it from former New York Fed President Bill Dudley. On Wednesday, he penned an article for Bloomberg titled “The Fed Shouldn’t Enable Donald Trump.” Dudley argued that the central bank should refuse to support the economy while the Trump administration is waging trade wars. Instead, he claimed, the Fed should force President Trump to “bear the risks – including the risk of losing the next election.” Dudley went so far as to suggest that “the election itself falls within the Fed’s purview."

    Those are things anyone who has held a senior position at the Fed simply doesn’t say – at least not publicly. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, a Democrat, was aghast.

    CNBC Anchor: Former New York Fed president, Bill Dudley, is arguing that the Fed should not cut interest rates further in response to president Trump's trade war with China. Strong's sharp criticism from foreign Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, who called it quote, "The worst case of Trump derangement syndrome in the financial world."

    Larry Summers: For a trusted former official of the Fed, whose thinking is inevitably going to be tied to the Fed, to recommend that they raise interest rates so as to subvert the economy and influence a presidential election is grossly irresponsible, and is an abuse of the privilege of being a former Fed official. So, it was the taking of the economic dialogue out of the realm of economics, and the putting it in a realm of politics and suggesting that the Fed was there, and was acting politically, or might act politically, that was empowering the Fed's critics, and I thought, was profoundly disloyal.

    Pay no attention to that disloyal man behind the curtain, Summers tells us. The powers that be don’t want the public to believe there’s an anti-Trump resistance movement operating inside the Federal Reserve.

    But if there were, and the people leading it were smart, they too would denounce Dudley. They would swear up and down in their public pronouncements that they aren’t motivated by politics.

    If we had a sound monetary system based on an objective standard of value with interest rates determined by the free market, then there would be no possibility of election meddling by central bankers. The opinions of Bill Dudley and Jerome Powell would carry no more weight than those of any number of other economic commentators.

    Perhaps President Trump will come to regret not more fully embracing sound money principles. On the 2016 campaign trail, he railed against Barack Obama’s Fed chair Janet Yellen for being politically motivated.

    Once he became President, Trump became singularly focused on low interest rates. He appointed Fed insider Jerome Powell to chairman. He thought Powell was his guy. But Powell soon revealed that his true loyalty was to the Fed itself – an institution that arguably wields more power than any government agency.

    President Trump now faces an uphill battle for re-election. He can expect no help from Democrats in Congress or the Fed in stimulating the economy.

    His Treasury Department does have some stimulus cards of its own to play, such as administrative changes that would lower capital gains tax burdens.

    Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he is also considering the issuance of 50-year and 100-year Treasury bonds. It would be an opportune time to do so. Long-term bonds are being gobbled up with record-low yields attached to them. The global appetite for sovereign debt has proven to be insatiable even as yields sink below zero in many countries.

    Eventually, it will all end badly for bondholders as inflation eats away at the real value of the bonds and yields rise to more sensible levels. In the meantime, savvy investors are diversifying into precious metals as a more promising alternative to negative real yields on paper. And as a hedge against the risk of a Fed-induced recession and stock market crash ahead of the 2020 election.

    Well now, without further delay, let’s get right to this week’s exclusive interview.

    Gerald Celente

    Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back, the one and the only, Gerald Celente, publisher of the renowned Trends Journal. Mr. Celente is a frequent guest here on the Money Metals Podcast and is perhaps the most well-known trends forecaster in the world, and it's always a real joy to have him on. Gerald, thanks for the time again today and welcome back.

    Gerald Celente: Yeah, thanks for having me on, Mike.

    Mike Gleason: Well, Gerald, there's a lot to talk about today, but I'd like to discuss first the trend of people losing faith in our government institutions. Frankly, they have lots of good reasons for that. The Jeffrey Epstein affair, for example, revealed something which has been going on for a long time – there are two justice systems, one which prosecutes the crimes of regular people and another which protects the well-connected from accountability. The Federal Reserve, which is always marketed as a benevolent organization, is actually the protector and defender of the crooked Wall Street banks, which it owns.

    These are of course, just two examples of corruption and failure. Yet, while confidence may be fading, we aren't yet seeing here in the States the sort of social unrest that is happening in Hong Kong and with the yellow vest movement in France for instance, we view the lack of violence here as a good thing obviously, but there has been very little progress toward draining the swamp. At this point, do you see a coherent reform movement in America. And what are you expecting, do things still have to get worse before people wake up and start making them better?

    Gerald Celente: Yeah, they're going to have to get worse. And it's not a lack of violence. I mean, when you're looking at the protests in France with the yellow vests, and the movement in Hong Kong, it's very few people, and that's who gets the media. Let's take a look at Hong Kong for a second. This is a place of what? About 7.4 million people. And last Sunday, what? 1.7 million people came out, 1.4 million people. I mean that's a lot of people. Oh and it was raining, so they're out there in umbrellas. In America, you have, people put on... One day they put on pink pussy hats and it's a big deal, a million people show up around the country. We don't have the fight here in America. Same thing with the yellow vests.

    And I want to make another one very clear that people forgot about. Battle of Seattle, back in the late 1990s, hundreds of thousands of people protested against the meeting going on because of the World Trade Organization, under slick Willie Clinton. And when you mentioned that Einstein, what's his name? Eisenberg. Is it Eisenberg?

    Mike Gleason: Epstein.

    Gerald Celente: Epstein. Epstein. Epstein, Eisenberg. Iceberg, Greenberg. What's the difference anyway? Bill Clinton was what, on his plane, what? 26 times or something. This is the Bill Clinton were talking about.

    They were protesting the World Trade Organization. A couple of people, agents, provocateurs dressed in black, nobody can see their face, started smashing windows. That's what got all the press, not the hundreds of thousands of peaceful demonstrators. So, going back to America, the fight is gone here. There's no fight. A matter of fact, you're not allowed to fight. We need a no bullying zone. And can you imagine this, they're making it up, you need a no bullying zone. "Don't fight. Don't learn how to fight. We'll protect you." Yeah, the militarized police state of America.

    You learn how to fight. What are you kidding? And by the way, I used to have my own close combat school for many years, and been at it for many, many years and that's why I speak out. I'm not here to take orders from anybody. I don't give them, I don't take them. In America, you don't have the fight anymore. That's why you're not seeing a new movement going on. As you pointed out, the polls show what some 70% of the people disgusted with the system, 71%. And you don't see any backlash. "I'm voting Democrat, I'm voting Republican." Grow up. The Democraps and the Repulsivecans. So, no, you don't see it here. And I don't think it's going to happen until the greatest depression hits. And that's going to be as we see it now in 2021, and because when people lose everything and they have nothing left to lose, they lose it. And that's what it's going to take.

    Mike Gleason: Here we are again, volatility is creeping back into the stock market. The trade dispute with China has been a big driver in the markets over the past year and a half. It's currently weighing on the equity markets again. There's lots of talk about the inversion in bond yields signaling that a recession is on the way. What are you expecting in the financial markets between now and year end? Are we going to have a bloody fourth quarter like we did last year, Gerald?

    Gerald Celente: It's hard to tell, but what we're saying at the Trends Journal is that the markets have peaked, and the downward pressure is great. You mentioned the trade war, the markets hit new highs this year. They've been hitting new highs since Trump got elected. We were the first people, by the way, two weeks after he got elected in 2016, to call the Trump rally. And I was the first to say it was over. And I believe it's over now. And so it could crash. There's a lot of wildcards out there and there's no wilder card than the Trump card. But I make this point because this trade war talk has been going on continually. It's not a trade war that's slowing down the global economy. It's the monetary methadone that the Federal Reserve and the other central banksters injected into the system, just to enrich the 1%. The facts are there.

    When you look at the sanctions that Trump has put on China, the last report that I saw was that it effected 0.6% of China's GDP. That's nothing. Take a look what's going on in India. Oh yeah, their NIFTY 50, their equity market, it's down over 10%. Oh, I wonder why? It's not a trade war with them. They're not doing a lot of trade with China. No, the global economy is slowing down. Same thing with Argentina. How about Brazil? They keep using this excuse of the trade war with China, when it's much bigger than that. It's a global slow down. The monetary methadone only keeps the bull running, the addicted bull running for so long, so it's ready to crash. But again, what I learned over the years after it crashes, they come up with a new drug, and they artificially pump it up again. Will they have enough to do it this time, is the question.

    Mike Gleason: Expanding the point here. We've seen volatility come and go in the equity markets, but there are some real differences which make us wonder if this time it's different. Bond yields are inverted, which is an indication that investors want to park some capital indefinitely in longer term bonds, and they want that badly enough that they're willing to accept returns even lower than for short term bonds. And precious metals prices are starting to move. Both are a sign that investors are looking for safety. Are the wheels getting ready to come off the equity markets for real this time?

    Gerald Celente: Yes, they're getting ready, absolutely. But again, they're going to do everything they can to pump it up. You're looking at the United States, they only could lower interest rates 2%. When the last recession hit, the interest rates could come down 5.5%. You go to Europe, they're in negative rates already, minus 0.4. They're going to bring it down to minus 0.5, and dump another $60 billion a month into corporate and government bond buybacks. So, going back to the inverted yield curve, I mean who in their right mind would buy a 30 year bond, a German bond, and get less back in 30 years than what you bought it for? And not a lot of people. But yes, a lot of people, the German bond, they had to buy $2 billion worth when they launched that last week, and there was 16 to $17 trillion in negative yield global bonds now that had been sold.

    So, that's why people are going into gold. They are looking for the safe haven asset and gold is the ultimate one. And just for the record, I call this identically on the point where gold was going to go for the last six years. I said it had a break over the $1,450 mark for it to gain strength. And on June 6th, we sent a Trend Alert out to our subscribers, when gold was $200 cheaper than it is now, $1,332 an ounce. And the headline of the Trend Alert was the Gold Bull Run. Gold which solidified over the $1,325 mark, and our next breakout from that was $1,385. It flew past that and flew past $1,450, so the downside risk we see now for gold is at the very worst about $1,390.

    Mike Gleason: Yeah, stealing my thunder, I was actually about to lay all that out. We spoke last in May, and you said the same thing that you've been saying for the last several years, $1,385, we need to take that out. Then we go to $1,450, and then once we get $1,450 taken out, we make a runs towards $2,000. Are you still sticking with that, and thinking that we're going to see gold up towards that $2,000 level at some point?

    Gerald Celente: Absolutely, absolutely. And you can see the strength of it. And even when the markets go up, gold isn't going down much. And again, there will be something to bring it down. It always is, whether it's real or manipulated. Just like the markets for example. You go back to the night before Christmas, and Dow is having its worst December since the Great Depression, and the worst two weeks since the panic of '08. And all of a sudden, our Treasury Secretary gets on the phone with six banksters, Mnuchin calls up, and when the markets reopened on the day after Christmas, all of a sudden, the next two days the markets are up over a thousand points. You think it's the Plunge Protection Team? Go back a few weeks ago. Same thing happened. Dow down 800 points, Trump gets on the phone, calls the banksters, next day up, up goes to the market. So, when I talk about where's gold going, there's going to be a lot of pressure from the banksters to keep gold prices low. But again, on the other hand, the central banksters also bought more gold in 2018 than they have in 50 years.

    Mike Gleason: Yeah, it's definitely very interesting to kind of watch them say one thing and do another. The central banks are buying gold hand over fist.

    We're just now a year out from the 2020 election and things appear to be taking shape in terms of who will be running against Trump in next year's general election. For now anyway, the Democrat front runners appear to be Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. Now two of those three in that group are known socialists, which is obviously a very interesting commentary on where we are with respect to the political preferences of many Americans these days. So, handicap the field here for us, Gerald… do you still see whoever the Dems do nominate performing well in those key battleground states that will be so important in determining the winner next November? Let's hear your comments on the Presidential Reality Show as you like to call it.

    Gerald Celente: When Clinton was running for president in 1992, in their campaign offices, they used to have a sign to keep the people focused on the important issue, "it's the economy, stupid." And that's all it's going to be about. We just heard former New York Fed president encourage the Federal Reserve not to lower interest rates, so Trump wouldn't win. And that's what it's going to come down to. It's going to be determined on how the economy is doing.

    And at this point, by the way, we see Trump getting reelected. And Elizabeth Warren is going to have a very difficult time, as will Bernie Sanders in the swing states. Biden has a better shot in the swing states, particularly Pennsylvania. As we see it now, it's Trump. But again, it's way too early and it's going to depend... "It's the economy, stupid." By the way, one of the things, two things, we also see that Trump is going to do to help support his reelection. We believe there will be a peace treaty with North Korea and Afghanistan by then.

    Mike Gleason: Yeah. Interesting. We'll be watching for that there. There is kind of this talk about maybe how the deep state will try to torpedo Trump a little bit, and let the market correct before the election next year, which as you said, the economy is really what drives a lot of voters' decisions. Do you have any credence to that type of theory, that the deep state could be out to a sink Trump there a year from now?

    Gerald Celente: If they do... and he's part of the deep state. I mean, look at a lot of things that he's doing. They're all in the club. "It's one big club and we're not in it," as George Carlin said. But no, they're not going to sink the markets. They don't want to lose money. They wouldn't do anything like that at all. They want to keep that money flow going.

    Mike Gleason: Well finally, Gerald, as we begin to wrap up, give us any final thoughts on anything that we may not have touched on, on either the financial front or in the geopolitical realm. Give us a sense of some of the stories or the trends you're going to be following most closely as we head into this final stretch of the year?

    Gerald Celente: Well, what's going on, very important to watch is what's going on in Hong Kong, and what's going on with India, and now ripping up the 1947 agreement and saying that Kashmir is theirs, they have no autonomy. And now you have two nuclear states, Pakistan and India in conflict. Because Pakistan says, "No, no, Kashmir is ours," or whatever they keep fighting about and have been fighting about. And some 50,000 people were killed over the last 10 years over a dispute like that.

    When all else fails, they take you to war. And right now the Indian economy's failing. The NIFTY 50 is down over 10% since Modi got reelected, and he won by a landslide. The people's minds are off the issues. You look at car sales, you look at their GDP, worst GDP in five years, in the first quarter. Car sales plummeting. (It) has nothing to do again with trade wars, the whole thing is going down.

    When all else fails, they take you to war. Same thing with Israel. Netanyahu won the election. Cannot put together a coalition government because he wants part of the coalition government to write in a statement that he will not be able to be prosecuted on charges he's being brought up on. So, now what's happening? In the last few days, boom, a drone attack in Lebanon. Airstrikes, missile strikes in Iraq, where Iranian troops were, and in Syria.

    Again, we have to watch these areas. They're very important because if it explodes in the Middle East against Iran, it's the beginning of World War III. You're going to see oil prices skyrocket to over a hundred dollars a barrel, that'll crash economies and it will crash equity markets. And by the way, the reason that Trump did not retaliate against Iran when they shot down that very sophisticated, $100 million, $200 million drone, was because it would have been Pearl Harbor in the Straits of Hormuz. Iran is not Libya. They're not Syria, they're not Iraq. They're not Afghanistan. They're the Persians. They're not going anywhere. And they have the sophistication to fight back.

    So, if war breaks out against any of those countries, against Iran, that's a big one to watch. We're urging people to stay tuned to follow the trends that are going to make a big difference, particularly going into the greatest depression.

    Mike Gleason: Well excellent, we'll leave it there. Before we go, let's have you tell people about how they can follow the tremendous Trends Journal information, and anything else that you want them to know about you and your organization. You guys are multimedia. You do lots of things to keep people informed. Let's hear about that.

    Gerald Celente: Well, yeah, we have the magazine. We're going to be making a new announcement. It's a monthly, it's going to increase from that in September. We do Trends in the News broadcasts, three nights a week. We send out Trend Alerts, weekly and more. And it's the only magazine in the world where you're going to read history before it happens. You tune into the news, you find out what happened. You tune into Trends in the News, you find out what's going to happen. And again, we're urging people to prepare now so they could prevail and prosper when the greatest depression hits. They could go to TrendsJournal.com and read history before it happens.


    https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts...-weapon-001857

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts


NOTICE: Timebomb2000 is an Internet forum for discussion of world events and personal disaster preparation. Membership is by request only. The opinions posted do not necessarily represent those of TB2K Incorporated (the owner of this website), the staff or site host. Responsibility for the content of all posts rests solely with the Member making them. Neither TB2K Inc, the Staff nor the site host shall be liable for any content.

All original member content posted on this forum becomes the property of TB2K Inc. for archival and display purposes on the Timebomb2000 website venue. Said content may be removed or edited at staff discretion. The original authors retain all rights to their material outside of the Timebomb2000.com website venue. Publication of any original material from Timebomb2000.com on other websites or venues without permission from TB2K Inc. or the original author is expressly forbidden.



"Timebomb2000", "TB2K" and "Watching the World Tick Away" are Service Mark℠ TB2K, Inc. All Rights Reserved.