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BRKG Saudi oil facilities on fire
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  1. #121
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    Quote Originally Posted by jward View Post
    this sounds like a reasonable ?, Asked by one who should know if it is a valid question... jewlz

    @EndGameWW3
    Where were the Saudi E-3 AWACS? Why couldn't they locate these slow flying armed to the teeth drones? What is the $60 billion a year Saudi military budget used for? What were the state of the art Saudi F-15s doing?? THIS IS A FLASE FLAG
    It is not a false flag...

    The Saudi's have all of the flashy toys and complete idiots driving them.
    Deo adjuvante non timendum - With God Helping, Nothing is to be Feared
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  2. #122
    Quote Originally Posted by SAPPHIRE View Post
    jward...post #110...…..just wondering...who is saying half of their production is interrupted??? Saudis...…...any confirmation or just reports from their own sources??? where was their security??? what no defenses??? this smells to me...…..FF or just another fat lie to advance some weird geopolitical agenda or force some confrontations from USA and other global players...….just wondering...
    Good questions, Sapphire. Yes, SAudis are the ones reporting that the loss to production is at 50%, at the time the tweet was made. I assume production capacity info is publicly available. I also assume the degree of damage and impact on production is easily ascertained with the technology everyone is using on one another. I have read individuals speculate the damage might be greater, but they were guessing only.

    The various layers of security employed are unknown to me. In the tweet, the questioned is raised re: the Saudi E-3 AWACS and the other. Whether its a valid question, or not, is above my paygrade. The questions you raise have to be asked...whether we have enough info to answer them yet is uncertain. Most of the various commenters seem happy with the houthis drone explanation. A few here and there have raised questions by suggesting they've heard missles, seen missle fragments on site, etc.
    Thoughts are things. Thus I'm careful of the thoughts I think, & the company I keep.

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  3. #123
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    Quote Originally Posted by AlfaMan View Post
    Their abilities to generate sorties is pretty good and their munitions and spares stocks are very good. They have been buying a lot of spares and ammo in the past two years-because theyre' using it in Yemen. A bunch of stuff went over about a month ago-air shipped not ship shipped........
    ChiCom missles purchased are totally under their control.

    If the base at Dharan is being reactivated (read about it a few months back) then their C4ISR capabilities are very good. There may be a MOU allowing access to US recon satellite data. Important info for strikes.

    The saudis have one of the best militaries money can buy. BUT-if it weren't for the US and UK contractors in logistics and training billets the Saudis would be something akin to "Larry Moe and Curly buy a bunch of weapons and go to war". Another thing-they're "stiff" when it comes to thinking/planning (legacy from the Brits) and orders are followed like Soviet conscripts would follow them. Not much imagination or military skill but Yemen has provided some hard combat experience they sorely needed.
    Good assessment AlfaMan.

    If Iran was directly or indirectly responsible for the attack on the Saudi oil fields they are playing a very dangerous game because Iran's Khag Island is higly vulnerable IMO and offers a very tantalizing target for a Saudi measured response.

    from Wiki,

    Kharg Island (Persian: جزیره خارگ‎) is a continental island in the Persian Gulf belonging to Iran. The island is located 25 km (16 mi) off the coast of Iran and 483 km (300 mi) northwest of the Strait of Hormuz. Administered by the adjacent coastal Bushehr Province, Kharg Island provides a sea port for the export of oil and extends Iranian territorial sea claims into the Persian Gulf oil fields. Located on Kharg Island is Kharg, the only city in the Kharg District.

    snip

    Once the world's largest offshore crude oil terminal and the principal sea terminal for Iranian oil, the Kharg Island facilities were put out of commission in the fall of 1986. Heavy bombing of the Kharg Island facilities from 1980 through 1988 by the Iraqi Air Force during the Iran–Iraq War all but destroyed most of the terminal facilities. Kharg Island was situated in the middle of the Darius Oilfield, also destroyed by the intensive bombing. Repair to all facilities has been very slow, even after the war ended in 1988. The events experienced by this island gave rise to the dispute in the English contract law case The Kanchenjunga [1990] 1 Lloyd's Rep 391, regarding the conditions for repudiatory breach of contract and a claimant's right to elect to accept repudiation.

    In 2009, Iran exported and swapped 950 million barrels of crude oil via southern Kharg oil terminal.[5]

    As of 2012, the Kharg oil terminal handles about 98% of Iran's crude exports.[1]
    Attached Images
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  4. #124
    First Squawk
    @FirstSquawk
    SAUDI OIL MINISTER ABDULAZIZ BIN SALMAN SAYS DRONE ATTACKS OF ABQAIQ SHUT DOWN 5.7 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL THE KINGDOM’S CRUDE PRODUCTION
    Thoughts are things. Thus I'm careful of the thoughts I think, & the company I keep.

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  5. #125
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    I don't think this is a false flag. We are waking up to a new nasty reality. War in the Middle East with a world dependent on their oil. Russia will be a big winner in oil and gas sales. Venezuela oil infrastructure is fractured and nobody to repair it. So we go into harvest and winter with a oil shortage and food shortage already in place. Not good my friends.

    As to the strike itself the Patriot system had to be compromised. It is my humble opinion that this was a coordinated two part attack. The Houthis were tasked with flying drones into the Patriot Batteries so the cruise missiles from Iran could not be detected. Just my humble opinion, nothing else. It would require precise timing to pull that off. Not sure how they could be that coordinated without the traffic being picked up but I feel this is a joint effort.

    The Saudis are preparing to strike and Israel is preparing to strike. I feel the Mullah's got their war.
    "They wanted to be left alone to face challenges head-on, and to prosper from their own hard work and ingenuity...harsh country tends to produce strong people."-John Erickson

  6. #126
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    Speaking of Venezuela, there's a bunch of refinery operators that need jobs right now, seems there was these explosions.
    They would know how to get refineries running again, then there's even more being produced.
    SA back online in 6 months or so...

    Or we could all be dead.

    JefFREE
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  7. #127
    Quote Originally Posted by bw View Post
    Eat the strawberries first - they don't keep.
    I know, so i got some pears & apples to go with my homemade caramel dip.
    I will be heartbroken, but well fed, for the duration. And beyond.
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  8. #128
    Quote Originally Posted by Bubble Head View Post
    I don't think this is a false flag. We are waking up to a new nasty reality. War in the Middle East with a world dependent on their oil. Russia will be a big winner in oil and gas sales. Venezuela oil infrastructure is fractured and nobody to repair it. So we go into harvest and winter with a oil shortage and food shortage already in place. Not good my friends.

    As to the strike itself the Patriot system had to be compromised. It is my humble opinion that this was a coordinated two part attack. The Houthis were tasked with flying drones into the Patriot Batteries so the cruise missiles from Iran could not be detected. Just my humble opinion, nothing else. It would require precise timing to pull that off. Not sure how they could be that coordinated without the traffic being picked up but I feel this is a joint effort.

    The Saudis are preparing to strike and Israel is preparing to strike. I feel the Mullah's got their war.
    Thank you for helping form a picture out of all the facts we are privvy to. Especially helpful, for me, to hear the components, and their relationship named.
    Thoughts are things. Thus I'm careful of the thoughts I think, & the company I keep.

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  9. #129
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    Iran starting to feel the heat?

    I think they doth protest too loudly.

    The absolute stupidest thing Iran could do is to attack U.S. forces.

    Hopefully this prattle is for their domestic consumption.
    ---------
    Conflict Intelligence Network
    @ConflictTeam
    13 minutes ago

    More
    #BREAKING : #IRGC Air Force Commander Ali Hajizadeh : We are ready to hit two #US destroyer bases if they retaliated. Let everyone know that all #US bases and naval parts up to two thousand kilometers are under the fire of #Iranian missiles.
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  10. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by Normallguy View Post
    Speaking of Venezuela, there's a bunch of refinery operators that need jobs right now, seems there was these explosions.
    They would know how to get refineries running again, then there's even more being produced.
    SA back online in 6 months or so...

    Or we could all be dead.

    JefFREE
    Also recall the current situation on the Venezuelan-Colombian border and the invocation of the defence treaties between the US, Colombia and its allied states this last week. Whether all coordinated or not the "there's no such thing as coincidence" rule makes itall that much more problematic....

  11. #131
    Iran says U.S. bases and aircraft carriers within range of its missiles - Tasnim

    September 15, 2019 / 2:37 AM / Updated 3 hours ago

    DUBAI (Reuters) - An Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander said on Sunday that U.S. bases and aircraft carriers in the region were within range of Iranian missiles after the U.S. accused Iran of leading attacks on Saudi oil plants, raising tensions in the Middle East.

    Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi group said it attacked two Saudi Aramco oil plants on Saturday at the heart of Saudi Arabia’s oil industry, knocking out more than half the Kingdom’s output.

    U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused Iran of being behind the attacks, ruling out Yemeni involvement and denouncing Tehran for engaging in false diplomacy.

    Pompeo, said on Twitter on Saturday that there was no evidence the attacks came from Yemen.

    “Everybody should know that all American bases and their aircraft carriers in a distance of up to 2,000 kilometres around Iran are within the range of our missiles,” the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps Aerospace Force Amirali Hajizadeh said on Sunday.

    The semi-official Tasnim news agency also quoted him saying that “Iran has always been ready for a “full-fledged” war”, without mentioning Saturday’s attacks in Saudi Arabia.

    One of the plants attacked is the world’s biggest petroleum processing facility.

    U.S. President Donald Trump told Saudi de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that Washington was ready to work with the kingdom to guarantee its security, according to the White House.

    Writing by Parisa Hafezi;Editing by Elaine Hardcastle

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ir...-idUKKBN1W0047

  12. #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Baron View Post
    Iran starting to feel the heat?

    I think they doth protest too loudly.

    The absolute stupidest thing Iran could do is to attack U.S. forces.

    Hopefully this prattle is for their domestic consumption.
    ---------
    Conflict Intelligence Network
    @ConflictTeam
    13 minutes ago

    More
    #BREAKING : #IRGC Air Force Commander Ali Hajizadeh : We are ready to hit two #US destroyer bases if they retaliated. Let everyone know that all #US bases and naval parts up to two thousand kilometers are under the fire of #Iranian missiles.
    The old "tit for tat" or "proportional response" approach isn't going to cut it this time. If anyone does anything, the opener is going to be massive.

  13. #133
    The Wall Street Journal
    ‏Verified account @WSJ
    2h2 hours ago

    Heard on the Street: Attack on critical Saudi oil facility will almost certainly rock the energy market in the short term, but also carries disturbing long-term implications

  14. #134
    Saudi's full oil supply could take weeks to resume - source

    September 15, 2019 / 4:05 AM / Updated 40 minutes ago

    DUBAI (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia’s return to its full oil supply capacity after Saturday’s attacks on Aramco oil plants could take “weeks not days”, a source close to the matter told Reuters on Sunday.

    The attacks in Abqaiq and Khurais knocked down some 5.7 million barrels per day (bpd) of the kingdom’s oil production and Saudi officials have not given a timeline for restoring full supply
    .

    Reporting By Rania El Gamal; editing by Ghaida Ghantous


    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-sa...-idUKKBN1W006A

  15. #135
    Saudi, Gulf stocks fall after attack on Aramco oil plants

    Saeed Azhar
    September 15, 2019 / 3:25 AM / Updated an hour ago

    DUBAI (Reuters) - Saudi stocks plunged 2.3% as the market opened on Sunday, after attacks on two plants at the heart of the kingdom’s oil industry a day earlier knocked out more than half of Saudi crude output.

    Sunday’s decline extended a losing spree for Saudi stocks, which in recent weeks have been hit by expensive valuations, weak oil prices and concerns about the economic outlook.

    The drone attacks were carried out by Yemen’s Houthi group, its military spokesman said on Al Masirah TV.

    The index has lost all its gains this year and is down about 18% from its 2019 high of 9,403 points seen in early May.

    On Sunday, the index was down 1.8% year-to-date.

    The index’s earlier gains were fuelled by Saudi Arabia’s entry into the MSCI and FTSE Russell’s emerging market indices.

    “There is no real positive news on the horizon with the index inclusion story over,” said Muhammad Faisal Potrik, head of research at Riyad Capital.

    “The market was expensive versus the region and other emerging markets, plus second-quarter earnings were not good.”

    Other Gulf markets also reacted negatively to the attacks, with Kuwait’s premier index down 1.1% and Dubai stocks falling 0.8%.

    Sentiment is negative because of yesterday’s attacks on Aramco facilities. But this is temporary and the market will pick up towards the end of the day,” said a trader in Riyadh, who asked not to be identified.

    Saudi Basic Industries, the kingdom’s biggest petrochemicals firm, was down 3.3% after it said it had curtailed feedback supplies by about 49% following the attack.

    Other petrochemical companies such as Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co and Kayan also announced significant reductions in feedstock supplies.
    The attacks come at a bad time for Saudi Arabia, which is preparing for the listing of oil giant Saudi Aramco on the Tadawul bourse in Riyadh later this year.

    The attacks are unlikely to change plans for Aramco’s long-awaited initial public offering but may affect the valuation, risk consultancy Eurasia Group said in a note.

    “The latest attack on Aramco facilities will have only a limited impact on interest in Aramco shares as the first stage of the IPO will be local. The international component of the sale would be more sensitive to geopolitical risks,” it said.

    Aramco has hired nine banks as joint global coordinators to lead its IPO, slated to be the world’s largest, Reuters reported, citing two sources.

    Additional reporting by Marwa Rashad in Riyadh and Dmitry Zhdannikov in London; Editing by Dale Hudson

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-sa...-idUKKBN1W005C

  16. #136
    Holger Zschaepitz
    þ @Schuldensuehner
    2h2 hours ago

    Saudi Arabian stocks sank after drone strikes highlighted the vulnerability of the kingdom’s oil facilities to terrorist attacks
    Attached Images

  17. #137
    Foreign Ministry
    ‏Verified account @KSAmofaEN
    23m23 minutes ago

    Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman: The terrorist attacks on #Aramco facilities in #Abqaiq and #Khurais are a threat to the world’s economy

  18. #138
    ANALYST VIEW-Saudi attacks raise spectre of oil at $100/barrel

    Alex Lawler, Julia Payne, Ron Bousso
    September 15, 2019 / 6:58 AM / Updated 38 minutes ago

    * Traders, analysts expect oil to jump $5-10/barrel on Monday
    * Longer-term prices depend on extent of damage
    * Market has to price in big geopolitical risk
    * Attacks could be repeated, will damage Aramco IPO plans

    By Alex Lawler, Julia Payne and Ron Bousso

    LONDON, September 15 (Reuters) - The oil market will rally by $5-10 per barrel when it opens on Monday and may spike to as high as $100 per barrel if Saudi Arabia fails to quickly resume oil supply lost after attacks over the weekend, traders and analysts said.

    Attacks on two plants at the heart of the kingdom’s oil industry on Saturday knocked out more than half of Saudi crude output, or 5% of global supply.

    Industry sources have said it may take weeks to bring production fully online
    .

    Below are quotes from market participants, traders and analysts.

    BOB MCNALLY OF RAPIDAN ENERGY

    Crude prices would spike by at least $15-20 per barrel in a seven-day disruption scenario and go well into triple digits in a 30-day scenario.

    “This does not include what are likely to be large (if difficult to model or predict) premia to reflect zeroing out of global spare production capacity amidst ongoing disruption risks, hoarding, and panic sentiment.”

    GREG NEWMAN, CO-CEO OF ONYX COMMODITIES

    Expects Brent futures to open $2 per barrel up and close $7 to $10 per barrel higher on Monday.

    The market could see a return to $100 per barrel if the issue cannot be resolved in the short term
    .

    In the swaps market, Dubai timespreads could see a $1.50-$2 barrel backwardation as end-users scramble to cover shorts for short-term loading.

    Refined product prices will be strong, with particular emphasis on high-sulphur fuel oil given current tightness and that it is the refinery product most closely linked to Saudi heavy crude.

    AYHAM KAMEL, EURASIA GROUP

    “A small $2-$3 per barrel premium would emerge if the damage appears to be an issue that can be resolved quickly, and $10 if the damage to Aramco’s facilities is significant.”

    “The scale of (the) attack will encourage markets to re-examine the need for considering an oil geopolitical risk premium ... The attacks could complicate Aramco’s IPO plans given rising security risks and potential impact on its valuation.”

    “The U.S. would only release crude from its strategic reserves if damage to infrastructure appears critical or oil prices spike significantly.”

    SAMUEL CISZUK, FOUNDING PARTNER AT ELS ANALYSIS

    “The outage of 5 million bpd (barrels per day), roughly half of the current Saudi production level and about 5% of global supply, is very large by historic standards. It would in relatively few weeks start to put a stress on the market.”

    “This incident is a very uncomfortable wake-up call to radically higher risk premiums on Gulf production.”

    CHRISTYAN MALEK, JP MORGAN

    “I’d expect a $3-$5 move in oil prices in the short term. The market has been sleep-walking in risk premium in the region, disproportionately focusing on risk to demand growth and shale oil supply.”

    “This attack introduces a new, irreversible risk premium into the market.”

    Expects oil to rise to $80-90 a barrel over the next three-six months as the market turns its focus to geopolitics.

    GARY ROSS, BLACK GOLD INVESTORS

    “The heart of the Saudi oil industry has been successfully attacked so look for prices to rise substantially to $65-$70 per barrel.”

    “These attacks are difficult to stop and could occur periodically. The market has to price this risk in.”

    JOHN DRISCOLL, JTD ENERGY

    “This is significant as it takes out twice the volume of the spare capacity in the market, which is at 2.0-2.5 million bpd.”

    “There’s going to be an initial panic reaction. Anyone who’s hedged on the short side will want to get out quickly. This may cause a significant spike upwards.”

    TILAK DOSHI, MUSE & STANCIL

    “In the oil universe, this attack is perhaps equivalent to the 9/11 attacks
    ... Abqaiq is easily the world’s single most important oil production and processing infrastructure site.”

    “This puts Iran’s wars-by-proxy in the region squarely in the centre of the security concerns of the Middle East.”

    “For Asian governments, perhaps this overtakes the perennial concern about the safety of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz with even more serious concerns about the impact of a direct breakout of hostilities between the Saudi alliance and Iran.”

    “Governments throughout the Asian region will perhaps now be more supportive of the U.S. administration’s tough sanctions regime on Iran.”

    (Additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar and Dmitry Zhdannikov; Writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov; Editing by Dale Hudson)

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/saudi...-idUKL5N266095

  19. #139
    Does anyone else recall seeing an article late last week saying that oil might "go down" to as little as 25 dollars a barrel?

    I didn't really believe it would be "allowed" to go that low, but I didn't expect something to happen quite this quicking and no I'm not suggesting that Saudi Bombed itself or that it was an "obvious" false flag, just that the timing is interesting and now suddenly a few days later we are back to 100 dollars a barrel oil projections...
    expatriate Californian living in rural Ireland with husband, dogs, horses. garden and many, many cats

  20. #140

    Good News If True

    From the Wall Street Journal:

    Saudi Officials Say Oil Production to Return to Normal Levels by Monday
    Oil markets haven’t seen a shutdown on the scale of Saudi’s five million barrels since Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990
    By Benoit Faucon in London, Summer Said in Dubai and Amrith Ramkumar in New York
    Sept. 14, 2019 4:13 pm ET
    SHARE
    TEXT
    Officials in Saudi Arabia indicated it would return to normal levels of oil production by Monday, as they sought to reassure world markets after a drone attack Saturday on one of the kingdom’s most productive oil facilities prompted it to cut its crude production in half.

  21. #141
    Remember when the Russian passenger jet was blown up in mid air...... the experts were on the news immediately spouting off about metal fatigue from excessive landing stress.

    It was a bomb. The government lies to us all the time. This should be fun to watch. On the bright side, the granola crunchers are going to get a taste of life with less fossil fuels..

  22. #142
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    From the RT spin zone.


    Iran rejects US’ claim it attacked Saudi oil facilities, warns it’s ready for war

    Iran has rebuffed US accusations of launching a drone attacks that cut Saudi Arabia’s oil output in half. A senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, meanwhile, has warned Washington that Tehran is ready for war.

    Allegations that Iran was behind the drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities are “unsubstantiated” and false, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Seyyed Abbas Mousavi stated on Sunday. He also said officials in Washington are accusing Iran in order to tarnish its image on the world stage in preparation for “future actions” against Tehran.

    "The Americans adopted the ‘maximum pressure’ policy against Iran, which, due to its failure, is leaning towards ‘maximum lies’."

    The Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility for sending 10 armed drones to hit two Saudi oil refineries on Saturday. The attacks caused massive fires and other damage to the sites, which halved the kingdom’s oil output.

    The Houthis previously admitted to launching similar drone and rocket attacks against Riyadh, some of which were directed at oil pumping stations. The Saudis have been waging a devastating aerial bombing campaign in civil war-torn Yemen, where they intervened in 2015 on behalf of ousted President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi.

    US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, however, squarely blamed Iran. Senator Lindsey Graham even suggested the US should respond by striking Tehran’s oil refineries.

    The commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force, Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, warned that Tehran is fully prepared to retaliate if attacked.

    “Everybody should know that all American bases and their vessels in a distance of up to 2,000 kilometers [from Iran] are within the range of our missiles.”

    https://www.rt.com/news/468857-iran-us-drone-attack/
    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

    Member: Nowski Brigade

    Deplorable


  23. #143
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    Quote Originally Posted by Housecarl View Post
    The old "tit for tat" or "proportional response" approach isn't going to cut it this time. If anyone does anything, the opener is going to be massive.
    I agree.
    Tweets won't cut it now.
    It will take time to get to massive.
    SS
    “Then the creatures of the high air answered to the battle, .., and the woods trembled and the wind sobbed telling them, the earth shook,; the witches of the valley, and the wolves of the forests, howled from every quarter and on every side of the armies, urging them against one another.”
    ― Lady Gregory, Gods and Fighting Men: The Story of the Tuatha De Danaan and the Fianna of Ireland

  24. #144
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    Evidence of Iran's involvement will be presented to the UN, before any action takes place.

    The Iranian diplomats will storm out of the assembly...cussing and threatening everybody.

    Iran will double down, with more attacks.


    Only then will the cruise missiles fly.
    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

    Member: Nowski Brigade

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  25. #145
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    We still play by their rules.
    We have spent 5-10 Trillion dollars of your money, your retirement money and your children's money, and for a few indulgent national moments.
    Trump's economy is trashed.
    What will we do now?
    Who will do it?
    SS
    “Then the creatures of the high air answered to the battle, .., and the woods trembled and the wind sobbed telling them, the earth shook,; the witches of the valley, and the wolves of the forests, howled from every quarter and on every side of the armies, urging them against one another.”
    ― Lady Gregory, Gods and Fighting Men: The Story of the Tuatha De Danaan and the Fianna of Ireland

  26. #146
    EndGameWW3
    @EndGameWW3
    Close source saying MBS willing to overlook attack on Saudi oil facilities at the request of U.S. President Trump. Will update as more comes.
    11:17 AM · Sep 15, 2019·
    5
    Retweets
    22
    Likes
    UncleDooley
    @UncleDooley
    ·
    20m
    Replying to
    @EndGameWW3
    Waiting on another plan which trumps Iran's actions. Maybe the peace deal, Israeli election, or other pending action already queued up?
    Ajay Kumar
    @CaptAKJ
    ·
    10m
    Replying to
    @EndGameWW3
    So can we assume Iran US talks are on? Lots of conflicting news emanating fm US tho. Absence f NSA only compounds the problem.
    BTW do u think Iran cd offer some help in Afghanistan? POTUS must be desperate to pull out before 2020..

  27. #147
    Quote Originally Posted by Shacknasty Shagrat View Post
    We still play by their rules.
    We have spent 5-10 Trillion dollars of your money, your retirement money and your children's money, and for a few indulgent national moments.
    Trump's economy is trashed.
    What will we do now?
    Who will do it?
    SS
    Watch.

  28. #148
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    Watching is an option and a strategy.
    For those watching 6 or so large (really large) warehouses full of Christmas stuff, choosing to watch now is a big decision.
    Christmas sales may start tomorrow.
    All the vaporware projections and jawboning will not make up for a cut of this size and duration.
    It is now all the same, a hot war of uncertain outcome or a drizzly peace of some sort.
    The oil is not going to be there, for a time, and perhaps, a long time.
    SS
    “Then the creatures of the high air answered to the battle, .., and the woods trembled and the wind sobbed telling them, the earth shook,; the witches of the valley, and the wolves of the forests, howled from every quarter and on every side of the armies, urging them against one another.”
    ― Lady Gregory, Gods and Fighting Men: The Story of the Tuatha De Danaan and the Fianna of Ireland

  29. #149
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    WI - On the scene, like a sex machine.
    Posts
    38,923

    Unconfirmed

    ELINT News
    @ELINTNews
    2 minutes ago

    More
    #UPDATE: The Saudi national oil company, known as Aramco, has assessed that its facilities were hit by missiles, people familiar with the matter said. A U.S. government assessment determined that up to 15 structures at Abqaiq... suffered damage
    "The most intriguing point for the historian is that where history and legend meet."

    "None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who think they are free."

    Johann Wolfgang von Goethe


  30. #150
    Quote Originally Posted by Melodi View Post
    Does anyone else recall seeing an article late last week saying that oil might "go down" to as little as 25 dollars a barrel?
    Yes - it was the article about the Russian government projecting crude prices for their coming fiscal year, and adjusting their pending budgets/economic planning, accordingly.

    Quote Originally Posted by Melodi View Post
    I didn't really believe it would be "allowed" to go that low, but I didn't expect something to happen quite this quicking and no I'm not suggesting that Saudi Bombed itself or that it was an "obvious" false flag, just that the timing is interesting and now suddenly a few days later we are back to 100 dollars a barrel oil projections...
    In the "game" of international high-stakes economic/political/military/high-tech poker, there are absolutely NO coincidences.

    Count on it.

    Every time.


    intothegoodnight
    "Do not go gentle into that good night.
    Rage, rage against the dying of the light."

    — Dylan Thomas, "Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night"

  31. #151
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    2004 Soviet of Washington
    Posts
    11,649
    I was going to start a separate thread, but their were too many relevant prefixes.
    SS


    '
    Why the Saudi oil attack is a ‘big deal’ that could be a ‘game changer’ in stock markets and crude prices

    By Mark DeCambre

    Published: Sept 15, 2019 11:48 a.m. ET


    S&P Global Platts forecasts $5 or $10/bbl. spike in Brent oil prices



    An intensifying Middle East conflict is threatening to throw the world’s energy market into disarray after weekend drone attacks destroyed parts of Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq plant — one of the world’s largest processors of oil— and a separate nearby oil field.

    On Saturday, the drone attacks, directed at Saudi Arabian oil facilities that account for nearly 10 million barrels of crude-oil production, resulted in massive plumes of black smoke emanating from the oil field, and a shutdown that could lead to about 50% of its production being at least temporarily thrown off line.

    Prominent crude-oil strategist Phil Flynn at Price Futures Group told MarketWatch on Sunday that the drone strike was a “big deal” that could result in a major spike in crude-oil prices, because of the potential disruption to global supplies.


    This isn’t the first such strike in the region but this most recent attack highlights the vulnerability of Arabian Peninsula’s oil production and the far-reaching implications of political clashes in the Middle East on the rest of the world.

    Here’s what investors need to know about the weekend drone strikes and the implications for global markets:
    What happened?

    Ten automated, aerial, combat drones launched an attack on Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq plant in Buqyaq and the Khurais oil field on Saturday at 3:31 a.m. and 3:42 a.m. local time, according to Gulf News.

    Saudi Aramco about 50% of its production being at least temporarily thrown off line.scribes Abqaiq as “the largest crude oil stabilization plant in the world,” and the Khurais, considered Saudi Arabia’s second-largest oil field (see map below):
    via Gulf News

    The attacks are believed to be part of a continuing conflict between Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia, which harks back to a 2014 takeover of Yemn’s largest city San’a by the Houthis, according to the Associated Press. Saudi-led coalitions have launched military campaigns to stem the Houthi’s expansion.

    Over the years, Saudi-led airstrikes have killed Yemeni civilians, while the Houthis have used drones and missiles to attack Saudi Arabia and have also targeted vessels in the Red Sea, the AP has reported.

    Saturday’s drone attack is being described as the biggest on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure since Iraq’s Saddam Hussein in 1990s fired missiles into The Kingdom during the first Gulf War.

    On Saturday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blamed Iran for the Saudi attacks. However, he also said there was no evidence that the weekend’s drone strike came from Yemen.

    “We call on all nations to publicly and unequivocally condemn Iran’s attacks. The United States will work with our partners and allies to ensure that energy markets remain well supplied and Iran is held accountable for its aggression,” the secretary said on Twitter.

    We call on all nations to publicly and unequivocally condemn Iran’s attacks. The United States will work with our partners and allies to ensure that energy markets remain well supplied and Iran is held accountable for its aggression
    — Secretary Pompeo (@SecPompeo) September 14, 2019

    Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani has denied any involvement in the Saudi strikes.

    The drone attack also comes amid tensions between Tehran and Washington after the U.S. pulled out of a global nuclear pact and imposed fresh sanctions against Iran to force it to curb its ambitions to create a nuclear-weapons program.
    What does it mean for oil prices?

    Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said the weekend escalation could prove a “game changer” for the dynamic in the Middle East.

    “We contend that this morning’s drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s all important Abqaiq processing facility (which has processing capacity of more than 7 [million barrels a day]) and the 1.5 mb/d Khurais oil field represents a game changer in the escalating Iranian regional standoff,” Croft wrote in a Saturday research report titled: ‘Saudi Arabia/Iran Crisis Guide Update: This is Your Wake Up Call…’

    On Friday, West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery CLV19, -0.05% fell 24 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $54.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. November Brent crude BRNX19, +0.05% shed 16 cents, or 0.3%, to $60.22 a barrel on the ICE Futures, with prices marking a weekly fall of 2.1%.

    S&P Global Platts estimated that Brent oil, the international benchmark, could see a $5 or $10 price surge from its current levels.

    “While some commentators may call for triple digit oil prices we would suggest that the sudden change in geopolitical risk warrants not only an elimination of the $5-10/Bbl discount on bearish sentiment, but adds a potential $5-10/Bbl premium to account for now-undeniably high Middle Eastern dangers to supply and the sudden elimination of spare capacity,” the Platts researchers wrote.

    “As such prices are likely to break out of the current $55-65/Bbl options range, to test the high $70s as currently supported by fundamentals,” the researchers said.

    Croft said Saturday’s major incident raises the risk of further disruptions to Middle East output that likely elevates the risk of oil prices vaulting higher (see map below via RBC Capital Markets showing recent incidents):
    via RBC Capital Markets

    The Wall Street Journal reported that five million barrels a day of output, or some 5% of world supply, would be taken offline due to the strikes. Saudi officials have said that it expects to return to normal levels by Monday but experts say that it would take weeks for the facilities to reach full-capacity.

    “This could take a longer time than the authorities initially are claiming. Despite lower exports this year, Saudi Arabia has also depleted its crude oil stocks to the lowest levels in 10 years, so the country alone does not have the same robustness to Middle East interruptions as it used to have,” wrote Bjørnar Tonhaugen, head of oil market analysis at Rystad Energy, in a Sunday research note.

    “The air attack by Iranian backed militia on vital oil processing terminals in the heart of Saudi Arabia’s oil region has turned the market on its head over the weekend,” said Magnus Nysveen, head of analysis at Rystad.

    Price Futures Group’s Flynn suggested that the world-wide global oil reserves may need to be tapped to stem a big surge in prices.

    “Global strategic reserve will have to be used to avoid a major price spike. Not only will oil focus on when the processing plant will return but also to whether it can be secured,” he said.

    Tonhaugen said he doubts that the U.S. will be able to effectively mitigate a price surge in the near term. “Also, the U.S. cannot quickly replace this volume, as it takes time to relocate oil tankers, and U.S. still has limited export capacity by Very Large Crude Carriers, (known as VLCCs),” he said.

    Flynn agrees: “This is a historic event and may have ramifications for years to come. Another key is security. How can Saudi Arabia secure their oil fields in the future? We may now find how quickly shale can ramp up. I am afraid it won’t be fast enough.”
    How will the broader market react?

    Already Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul stock-market exchange is under pressure and that could have some spillover into U.S. trading early Monday. Bloomberg News reported that the Tadawul All Share Index was down 3.1% after the attack. On Monday, exchange-traded fund iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF KSA, +0.41%, a popular way to gain exposure to Saudi Arabia’s oil market, is likely to be active. The Saudi ETF has gained 2.8% so far in 2019, and a sharp downturn could erase its year-to-date gains.

    Stock-index futures in the U.S. weren’t yet being traded but Middle East tensions come as markets are on the brink of all-time highs and as the Federal Reserve on Wednesday is set to weigh signs of global economic slowdown and stubbornly low inflation as it prepares to set monetary policy.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.14% is 0.5% from its record at 27,359.16 hit on July 15, while the S&P 500 SPX, -0.07% stood about the same distance from its all-time peak at 3,025.86 set on July 26. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.22% was 1.8% from its all-time closing high at 8,330.21 also hit on July 26.

    The U.S. central bank has traditionally described moves in the volatile oil markets as inputs that central bankers tend to view as temporary.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wh...teid=rss&rss=1
    “Then the creatures of the high air answered to the battle, .., and the woods trembled and the wind sobbed telling them, the earth shook,; the witches of the valley, and the wolves of the forests, howled from every quarter and on every side of the armies, urging them against one another.”
    ― Lady Gregory, Gods and Fighting Men: The Story of the Tuatha De Danaan and the Fianna of Ireland

  32. #152
    Quote Originally Posted by Millwright View Post
    Evidence of Iran's involvement will be presented to the UN, before any action takes place.

    The Iranian diplomats will storm out of the assembly...cussing and threatening everybody.

    Iran will double down, with more attacks.

    Only then will the cruise missiles fly.
    Entirely possible scenario, Millwright.

    Or, not.

    IF Iran (or one of their proxies) were behind this alleged attack, they could stand to lose a great deal? all? of their ability to fund themselves via crude oil sales - they are economically vulnerable in this very significant way, as are the Saudis, UAE, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, et al - and, to a lesser degree, Russia - they ALL hold the same "gun" to each other's economic heads - one false move, and they are all potentially in great economic/political danger.

    The western central banking model is built around the "reality" that the U.S. dollar is the world's reserve currency, backed mostly by crude oil out of the ME. The 10K view would suggest that we are possibly witnessing the beginning (attempted) death throes (h/t to bw) of the U.S. dollar reserve status, and its handmaiden, the parasitic western central banking system - which would represent a COMPLETE leveling of the western world's current economic systems as we have known them, throughout our lifetimes, if the dollar's reserve status were to be removed - by hook, or crook.

    The question remains - cui bono? (who benefits?)

    YMMV.


    intothegoodnight
    Last edited by intothatgoodnight; 09-15-2019 at 04:18 PM.
    "Do not go gentle into that good night.
    Rage, rage against the dying of the light."

    — Dylan Thomas, "Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night"

  33. #153
    Who doesn't benefit, besides we the little people who do the bleeding on their behalfs'?
    Thoughts are things. Thus I'm careful of the thoughts I think, & the company I keep.

    . TB2K IS never down, thank heavens! But, when it is, you can find me in the corner of this round room, watching the world wander by. Stop in and say HI. I miss ya already. No excuses! Bring snacks, news, music or movies for access to VIP room https://talk2metb2k.blogspot.com/

  34. #154
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Posts
    95,564
    Quote Originally Posted by Shacknasty Shagrat View Post
    I agree.
    Tweets won't cut it now.
    It will take time to get to massive.
    SS
    Considering both the "nuclear issue" mixed into this sausage, as well as the number of Iranian missiles able to salvo across the Gulf and further impair Saudi and UAE oil production and shipping capacity in a manner similar to the threat posed by Iran's Hezbollah "proxies" against Israel, if it goes hot, there won’t be any time to ramp up and move forces into the area to glare at one another as well as provide more targets for an Iranian missile barrage. Besides, invading Iran would be more of a head ache than its worth. I can see the whole Shia crescent "lighting up" any day now. This isn’t going to end well...think in terms of a JDAM fueled version of Operation Linebacker...

  35. #155
    EndGameWW3 Retweeted
    CNBC Now
    @CNBCnow
    Saudi Arabia aims to restore one-third of its lost oil output by tomorrow; Kingdom had hoped for complete restoration by Monday - Dow Jones
    Saudi Arabia aims to restore one-third of lost oil output by Monday, WSJ says
    cnbc.com
    1:33 PM · Sep 15, 2019·

  36. #156
    An interesting supposition from today's twitter-verse
    Say, and feel, what you will bout DJT, he does play
    an interesting game o' chess imo, ymmv. jewlz


    carl drysdale
    @wileecarlote
    Replying to
    @amir8hossein
    and
    @no_itsmyturn

    The Donald is encouraging the Old World Order to "overreach" which is a time tested method. Another example is the sanctions, secondary sanctions, trade wars are all an overreach that will end the US Dollar domination of World trade

    Don is with Ron, end the fed to really MAGA
    Thoughts are things. Thus I'm careful of the thoughts I think, & the company I keep.

    . TB2K IS never down, thank heavens! But, when it is, you can find me in the corner of this round room, watching the world wander by. Stop in and say HI. I miss ya already. No excuses! Bring snacks, news, music or movies for access to VIP room https://talk2metb2k.blogspot.com/

  37. #157
    ELINT News Retweeted
    Hamdi
    @HamdiAlkhshali
    Following the attack on a Saudi Arabia oil facility, an attack on a scale the energy sector has not witnessed before, regional sources tell CNN #Saudi #Aramco has about 200 million barrels of oil in storage.
    1:42 PM · Sep 15, 2019·

  38. #158
    Heshmat Alavi
    @HeshmatAlavi
    . Heshmat Alavi
    @HeshmatAlavi
    Human Rights & Political Activist. Writer/Commentator on Iran & Middle East in
    @Forbes
    @AlArabiya_Eng
    @TheHill
    & ...
    Blocked by #Iran's dictator
    @Khamenei_ir
    irancommentary.wordpress.comBorn March 31, 1978Joined
    7 hours ago, 20 tweets, 8 min read Read on Twitter

    THREAD
    1)
    @brhodes, the architect of the #Iran “echo chamber,” is working overtime to parrot Tehran’s talking points about Yemen.
    Let’s take a look at Tehran’s role in Yemen and how they support the Houthis.
    Of course, neither Rhodes nor MSM will ever highlight these facts.





    2)
    Iran’s regime denies any role in the recent attack.

    3)
    For those interested about details on the recent attack targeting two important Saudi oil facilities, this thread sheds some light.
    Unroll available on Thread Reader
    https://twitter.com/HeshmatAlavi/sta...369000448?s=20

    4)
    Iran-backed proxies apparently used "Quds-1" cruise missiles in the attack targeting Aramco oil facilities at Buqayq in eastern Saudi Arabia.

    This is a replica of Iran's "Sumar" cruise missile.




    5)
    Taking a look back:

    Iran’s regime is the main reason why the scene in Yemen remains a “bloody stalemate”…
    Report: IRGC officer confirms helping Houthis fire rockets at Saudis
    Iran not only supported Yemen’s Houthis with weaponry but gave them directives to attack two Saudi Arabian oil tankers on July 25.
    https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Re...-Saudis-565451


    6)
    “… an Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officer, known by his nom de guerre “Abu Ali,” led a 52-man Houthi armored assault convoy armed with Katyusha missile launchers…”
    Iran's Growing Casualty Count in Yemen
    On March 21 of this year, “Sandstorm Madar,” a massive dust storm pushed by wild winds and saturated with thunderstorms shrouded Saudi Arabia and angled
    https://warontherocks.com/2017/06/ir...ount-in-yemen/

    7)
    “He said that there were Iranian experts and Lebanese from Hezbollah militias currently in Saada helping run secret training facilities.”
    Houthi commander admits: Iran training us
    A Houthi militia leader has confessed that both Iran and Hezbollah have been heavily involved in training their fighters. Abu Mohammed, who was in
    https://english.alarabiya.net/en/New...-militias.html

    8)
    “…Reuters has details — from Yemeni, Western and Iranian sources — of Iranian military and financial support to the Houthis before and after their takeover of Sanaa on Sept. 21.”
    Iranian support seen crucial for Yemen's Houthis
    Iran has supplied weapons, money and training to the Shi'ite Houthi militia that seized Yemen's capital in September, as Tehran steps up its regional power struggle with Saudi Arabia, Yemeni and Iran…
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-y...0JT17A20141215

    9)
    “U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned five members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) missile command over their role in the Houthi’s missile program.”
    Yemen's Houthis highlight new underground missile launchers | FDD's Long War Journal
    The Houthi rebels showed off new ballistic missile technology in a new missile launch directed at an airport in southern Saudi Arabia.
    https://www.longwarjournal.org/archi...-launchers.php

    10)
    Back in 2015, showing Obama/Rhodes knew about this:
    “The Iranian leadership earlier this month ordered militants from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ (IRGC) Quds Force, along with Lebanese Hezbollah fighters, to Yemen…”
    U.S. Intelligence: Iran Sending More Fighters to Yemen
    IRGC Quds Force, Hezbollah back pro-Iran rebels
    https://freebeacon.com/national-secu...ters-to-yemen/

    11)
    Iran has provided logistics, including land mines, for the Houthis.
    Thanks to Iran's regime supporting Houthi militias in Yemen, this country is littered with mines & explosives.

    12)
    Footage of Iran-backed Houthi militias in Yemen, this time targeting a UN aid truck.

    13)
    Rhodes also won’t tell you about how the Iran-backed Houthis recruit children for war using slogans calling for murder, destruction & possibly even another Holocaust.




    14)
    “… seven Houthi Qasef-1 drones and one drone engine recovered by forces from the United Arab Emirates. Six of the drones were captured in October on a known Iranian smuggling route that runs through Oman, …”
    washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoin…

    15)
    “Iranian-backed Houthi rebels off the coast of Yemen launched an attack on a Saudi Arabian naval vessel using suicide boats, or fast-attack craft laden with explosives.”
    The US may have to consider firing on Iranian boats after latest Houthi attack
    "The duty of self-defense mandates revision of the ROE to provide a sufficient 'bubble' to prevent the risk of a suicide attack from swarming boats."
    http://uk.businessinsider.com/us-nav...17-2?r=US&IR=T

    16)
    “… Houthis had concealed fighters and equipment in or close to civilians in Al Mukha in the Taiz Governorate “with the deliberate aim of avoiding attack” and in violation of international humanitarian law.”
    Exclusive: U.N. report on Yemen says Houthis used human shields,...
    Yemen's Houthi rebels used civilians as human shields, Islamic State militants in the country received an influx of cash and al Qaeda has improved its roadside bombs, according to a confidential repo…
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-y...-idUSKCN10F28B

    17)
    “… Houthis had diverted about $100 million a month from Yemen’s central bank to support the group’s war effort and that the foreign reserves of the central bank had dropped to $1.3 billion in June 2016 from $4.6 billion in November 2014.”

    18)
    “Houthi rebels in the port city of Hodeidah were rounding up civilians… and detaining them in prisons near arms depots to prevent coalition air strikes knocking out the Iranian-armed group’s equipment…”
    Houthi rebels using civilians as human shields in Hodeidah
    The mass arrests come as two captured conscripts told Yemeni government forces that Houthis planned to blow up the airport if they lost control
    https://www.thenational.ae/world/men...eidah-1.741295

    19)
    It is quite interesting to see Rhodes passionately neglect these undeniable facts.

    More importantly, this attack took place just three days before the 2019 UNGA where Iran pundits hope to see a Trump/Rouhani meeting.

    The mullahs, however, have shown their true colors.

    20)
    Final thoughts:

    Why does Rhodes go such a distance a distance for Iran’s regime?

    Is it all about his utter hatred of U.S. President Donald Trump?

    Does he sincerely believe in a policy of appeasement/engagement vis-à-vis Iran?

    Or does Iran’s regime have something on him?
    Missing some Tweet in this thread?
    You can try to force a refresh.
    Thoughts are things. Thus I'm careful of the thoughts I think, & the company I keep.

    . TB2K IS never down, thank heavens! But, when it is, you can find me in the corner of this round room, watching the world wander by. Stop in and say HI. I miss ya already. No excuses! Bring snacks, news, music or movies for access to VIP room https://talk2metb2k.blogspot.com/

  39. #159
    Join Date
    Jul 2001
    Location
    Hoosier-at-heart
    Posts
    5,251
    Housecarl, not sure if this is on your WOW thread or not, I didn't check on it yet. I'm holding my breath all day here, waiting for response. The Game of Drones reference intrigued me.

    https://twitter.com/WalidPhares/stat...47766560215040

    Aurora Intel Retweeted ( 3 hrs ago)
    Walid Phares
    @WalidPhares
    #Kuwait is mobilizing its defense and security systems after drones originating from #Iraq, crossed its airspace into #SaudiArabia airspace. It's not a #Houthi affair. It is an Iranian pincer movement. I have warned months ago that the region was to witness a mass #GameofDrones
    9:50 AM · Sep 15, 2019·Twitter Web App

  40. #160
    I'm going out on a limb here I don't think this will totally explode yet. A deal is coming. Next week will be interesting

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