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ECON FUNG ADVISORY: This thread is an Econo Watch....
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  1. #41
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
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    Maine
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shacknasty Shagrat View Post
    What will happen to these cushy trade deals if the Red Chinese go into Hong Kong?
    SS


    'US delaying China tariffs for some items including cellphones, removing other products from list
    Published 24 min agoUpdated Moments Ago
    Maggie Fitzgerald







    The United States Trade Representative office said Tuesday certain items were being removed from the new China tariff list because of “health, safety, national security and other factors” while tariffs on other items would be delayed until December 15.

    The products in the group that will have tariffs delayed include “cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing,” the USTR said.

    Apple shares traded higher on the news. Best Buy, Nike, Kohl’s and other retailers were also trading higher.

    Last month, President Donald Trump announced a new round of tariffs of 10% on $300 billion of Chinese imports that eluded duties in the earlier round in May. The USTR published a list of products in May that may be subject to an addition 10% tariff and that list is now being edited.

    The USTR added that it will conduct an “exclusion process for products subject to additional tariff.”

    Separately, China’s Commerce Ministry said Vice Premier Liu had a phone call with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lightizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. China said they agreed to another call in two weeks.

    The next round of trade talks were expected to take place in September, after the tariffs went into place.

    Here’s the full statement from the USTR:

    USTR Announces Next Steps on Proposed 10 Percent Tariff on Imports from China

    Washington, DC - The United States Trade Representative (USTR) today announced the next steps in the process of imposing an additional tariff of 10 percent on approximately $300 billion of Chinese imports.

    On May 17, 2019, USTR published a list of products imported from China that would be potentially subject to an additional 10 percent tariff. This new tariff will go into effect on September 1 as announced by President Trump on August 1.

    Certain products are being removed from the tariff list based on health, safety, national security and other factors and will not face additional tariffs of 10 percent.

    Further, as part of USTR’s public comment and hearing process, it was determined that the tariff should be delayed to December 15 for certain articles. Products in this group include, for example, cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing.

    USTR intends to conduct an exclusion process for products subject to the additional tariff.

    The USTR will publish on its website today, and in the Federal Register as soon as possible, additional details and lists of the tariff lines affected by this announcement.

    Correction: An earlier version of the story incorrectly stated cellphones were being removed from list. They are part of the delay.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/13/ustr...-security.html
    Anything critical to health, safety and national security should not be made in China.

  2. #42
    Join Date
    May 2001
    Location
    CA
    Posts
    12,820
    The US needs to watch for foreign and international corporations picking up that farmland from the bankrupt farmers.
    "During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." George Orwell

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    New England region
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    10,940
    Quote Originally Posted by doctor_fungcool View Post
    Dow is up bigtime on the pulling back of some tariffs which were scheduled for Sept. 1.

    Only when China sends iRED ARMY into Hong KONG

    will we see some real action.
    Two reactions come to mind.

    1) Total trade embargo with Red China.

    2) War.

    Yes sir...real action. Very soon.
    "Talking is easy and everyone is wise after the event."

    Ernest Joyce

  4. #44
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Maidenhead
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    And China is going to have a very hard time feeding their people if they follow through and don't import any of our farm products. Between the swine flu decimating their pork production to the army worms gobbling up their crops to the drought in parts of the country and flooding in other parts they have a problem. Not to mention a reduced yield of our crops due to flooding issues in the mid-west. A hungry population is a discontented population and if the trouble in Hong Kong is an indication China is going to have it's hands full internally in the near future.
    What is the lake of fire? What is it's purpose? Is the lake of fire eternal hell? Is there any hope of escape for those cast into this lake?
    http://bible-truths.com/lake1.html

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
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    Southwest (enjoy it!)
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hfcomms View Post
    And China is going to have a very hard time feeding their people if they follow through and don't import any of our farm products. Between the swine flu decimating their pork production to the army worms gobbling up their crops to the drought in parts of the country and flooding in other parts they have a problem. Not to mention a reduced yield of our crops due to flooding issues in the mid-west. A hungry population is a discontented population and if the trouble in Hong Kong is an indication China is going to have it's hands full internally in the near future.
    Do those in power there care if many die from starvation?

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Houston
    Posts
    16,722
    Quote Originally Posted by doctor_fungcool View Post
    Futures down



    ..something may be UP.
    Or perhaps something is going sideways.
    Your levity is good, it relieves tension and the fear of death.

    The Frigid Times - http://www.frigidtimes.blogspot.com/
    Civil Defense Reborn - http://cdreborn.blogspot.com/
    Believe what you will, but the Russian nuclear threat is far from dead. It ain't even sick. - Brutus

  7. #47
    Seems like the doom is on hold once again

  8. #48
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    North Georgia Mountains
    Posts
    1,221
    Quote Originally Posted by Shacknasty Shagrat View Post

    Further, as part of USTRís public comment and hearing process, it was determined that the tariff should be delayed to December 15 for certain articles. Products in this group include, for example, cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing.
    It looks like they do not want to impact the x-mas selling season, for both retailers and consumers, so they are going to wait until december to apply the tariffs on these products. So what this really means is that the impact to consumes will not occur until next year as it will take a couple of weeks after 12/15 for the items to work their way through the supply chain and end up on store shelves.

    Why else would toys and video games be on the list

    tbd

  9. #49
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
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    Southwest (enjoy it!)
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    Quote Originally Posted by petedtom View Post
    Seems like the doom is on hold once again
    It's on hold until its not.

  10. #50
    Hate to say it but I 'am glad load up on gold last month.

  11. #51
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    the chrono synclastic infidibulum
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    2,060
    Quote Originally Posted by doctor_fungcool View Post
    posting of market activity....bond market gyrations....general economic information.....graphs...charts...ect.ect.ect

    Is a deflationary depression in the cards? Yes...No...Maybe....
    yes thats how its gonna come down.
    ========================================
    DONT BLAME ME! IM NOT MY FAULT!
    the biggest thing that we have learned from history is that we haven't learned anything from history!
    Veritas vos liberabit

  12. #52
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
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    SE Georgia
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hfcomms View Post
    And China is going to have a very hard time feeding their people if they follow through and don't import any of our farm products. Between the swine flu decimating their pork production to the army worms gobbling up their crops to the drought in parts of the country and flooding in other parts they have a problem. Not to mention a reduced yield of our crops due to flooding issues in the mid-west. A hungry population is a discontented population and if the trouble in Hong Kong is an indication China is going to have it's hands full internally in the near future.
    Is that a bad thing?

  13. #53
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
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    SE Georgia
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    Quote Originally Posted by hiwall View Post
    Do those in power there care if many die from starvation?
    They haven't in the past.

  14. #54
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    In The Shadow Of The Turning
    Posts
    36
    Recession indicator with perfect track record flashing red

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/...nals-recession




    The yield curve is blaring a recession warning.

    The spread between the U.S. 2-year and 10-year yields on Wednesday turned negative for the first time since 2007. Such a development has occurred ahead of each and every U.S. recession of the last 50 years, sometimes leading by as much as 24 months.

    “Historically, the 2-10 has had better predictive ability of recession than equities,” Sri Kumar, president of the Santa Monica, California-based Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, told Fox Business.

    “If you depended on equities to tell you whether you are entering into a recession you did not do well. For example, October, November of 2006, exactly one year before the Great Recession began, the 2-10- inverted. Equities did well in the first half of 2008 when we were in a recession and oil prices hit a peak in May of 2008 when we were very much in a recession.



    “Do not depend on equities or oil price to tell you that you are in a recession. You’re probably not going to do well as a leading indicator.”


    And while a flattening yield curve is typically something investors fear, President Trump earlier this month called on the Federal Reserve to cut rates in order to flatten the yield curve further and spark inflation – something needed to jumpstart a slowing economy.

    “They must Cut Rates bigger and faster, and stop their ridiculous quantitative tightening NOW,” Trump tweeted. “Yield curve is at too wide a margin, and no inflation!”

    Trump’s call for more Fed rate cuts comes at a time when the economy is slowing as the more than yearlong U.S.-China trade war presses on. The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.1 percent Opens a New Window. in the April to June period, down from 3.1 percent in the first quarter.

    But that’s not the only evidence of a slowing economy. A team of Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists led by Ethan Harris say three of the top five economic indicators of the business cycle are “flashing yellow” and are near levels consistent at the start of previous recessions.

    Specifically, the team points to weakness in auto sales, industrial production and aggregate hours worked. However, they say arguably the “most reliable early indicator,” initial jobless claims, remains at a low level.

    The bank’s official model suggests a 20 percent chance a U.S. recession will occur in the next 12 months, but the economists say the data and events lead them to believe it’s more like a one-in-three chance. They think the Fed will cut rates two more times this year after in July lowering its benchmark interest rate Opens a New Window. for the first time since the financial crisis.

    “We expect two more rate cuts this year (Sept and Oct), but see the risks clearly for more if the US-China trade tensions continue to escalate,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Economist Joseph Song wrote.

    While rate cuts at the next two meetings may appease Trump, they probably won’t make much of a difference.



    “The Fed has become hereafter irrelevant,” Kumar said.

    “They are probably going to cut two more times, three more times, take your pick. Or they may cut by 50 basis points and cut again. I think it is too late. You may temporarily boost equities, but it is going to signify panic on the part of the Fed. I wouldn’t be surprised if after that they resume a quantitative easing four as Trump has asked them to do as well.”

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