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ECON FUNG ADVISORY: This thread is an Econo Watch....
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  1. #1

    FUNG ADVISORY: This thread is an Econo Watch....

    posting of market activity....bond market gyrations....general economic information.....graphs...charts...ect.ect.ect

    Is a deflationary depression in the cards? Yes...No...Maybe....
    Sow the Wind....Reap the Whirlwind

  2. #2

  3. #3
    Bond Market Collapse 2018: Do Not Buy Bonds! // crash bubble sell off coming explained


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbmvZ-oWpsU



    David Moadel
    Published on Apr 5, 2018
    Bond Market Collapse 2018: Do Not Buy Bonds! // crash bubble sell off coming explained // Contact davidmoadel @ gmail . com for more help. // Here are some free reports with research on what's going on in the markets and potential ways to get better yield:

  4. #4
    Deutsche Bank Collapse Has Begun! A Major Stock Market Crash Will Devastate The Entire Planet!


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMBvvZOGMvY



    Epic Economist
    Published on Jul 22, 2019
    I know that most Americans don’t really care if Deutsche Bank lives or dies, but the failure of Deutsche Bank could quickly become a major stock market crash for the entire world…

    Could it be possible that we are on the verge of the next Lehman Brothers moment and economic collapse ? Deutsche Bank is the most important bank in all of Europe, it has 49 trillion dollars in exposure to derivatives, and most of the largest “too big to fail banks” in the United States have very deep financial connections to the bank
    . In other words, the global financial system simply cannot afford for Deutsche Bank to collapse, and right now it is literally melting down right in front of our eyes. For years I have been warning that this day would come, and even though it has been hit by scandal after scandal, somehow Deutsche Bank was able to survive until now. But after what we have witnessed in recent days, many now believe that the end is near for Deutsche Bank and a horrific stock market crash will follow that. On July 7th, they really shook up investors all over the globe when they laid off 18,000 employees and announced that they would be completely exiting their global equities trading business.

    And as Deutsche Bank collapses, it could take a whole lot of others down with it at the same time and the next stock market crash will burn the whole system. According to Wall Street On Parade, the bank had 49 trillion dollars in exposure to derivatives as of the end of last year. The actual credit risk to Deutsche Bank is much, much lower than the notional value of its derivatives contracts, but we are still talking about an obscene amount of exposure. And this is especially true when we consider the state of Deutsche Bank’s balance sheet. According to Nasdaq.com, as of the end of last year the bank had total assets of 1.541 trillion dollars and total liabilities of 1.469 trillion dollars. In other words, there wasn’t much equity there at the end of December, and things have deteriorated rapidly since that time. In fact, it is being reported that a billion dollars a day is being pulled out of the bank at this point.

    In particular, some of the largest “too big to fail banks” in the United States are “heavily interconnected financially” to Deutsche Bank. This is the reason why the next stock market crash is imminent because thing are getting worse and worse very quickly.

    As long as I have been doing this, I have been warning my followers to watch the global derivatives market. It played a starring role during the last financial crisis, and it will play a starring role in the next one too.
    The fundamental structural problems that were exposed during 2008 and 2009 were never fixed. In fact, many would argue that the global financial system is even more vulnerable today than it was back during that time. And now it appears that the next “Lehman Brothers moment” may be playing out right in front of our eyes.

    Now more than ever, keep a close eye on Deutsche Bank, because it appears that they could be the first really big domino to fall and a huge stock market crash will hit our planet.


    Script written by Michael Snyder, author of: www.theeconomiccollapseblog.com

  5. #5
    Worst Company Disaster Has Begun! Scary Video Of The Economic Collapse 2019 Stock Market CRASH!


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yj3wqrcvSnE


    Epic Economist
    Published on Jul 19, 2019
    Everywhere around us there are signs of economic collapse, and right now companies are literally shutting down all over America. Everything that is taking place in the “real economy” makes perfect sense, and unfortunately the next economic crash are likely to accelerate significantly in the months ahead.

    How long can the stock market possibly stay completely disconnected from economic reality? On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose just 27 points, but that was good enough to push it to yet another new all-time record high. Investors have been absolutely thrilled by the extremely impressive bull run that we have witnessed so far in 2019, but there is no way that this is sustainable. Wall Street may be celebrating for the moment, but meanwhile all of the hard economic numbers are telling us that we have now entered a new economic collapse and Great Recession . Just like in 2008, it appears to be inevitable that the party on Wall Street is about to hit a brick wall, but nobody should be surprised when the stock market crash happens.

    For example, just take a look at what is happening to the trucking industry. I recently warned about the trucking “bloodbath” that was unfolding, and over the past week it has greatly accelerated. On the 12th of July, we learned that trucking giant LME had abruptly shut down. Then this week we learned that Timmerman Starlite Trucking suddenly shut down without any notice. Of course those two trucking companies are definitely not the only victims of this “bloodbath”. According to Business Insider, ALA Trucking, Williams Trucking, Falcon Transport and New England Motor Freight have also completely ceased operations in 2019. If the U.S. economy really was “booming”, this would not be happening.

    Meanwhile, major retailer companies continue to fall like dominoes. Charming Charlie is headed for bankruptcy and will be closing all of their stores. Charming Charlie Holdings Inc. filed for Chapter 11 protection in Delaware with plans for going-out-of-business sales at about 261 stores, according to court documents. In addition, we just learned that Fred’s company will be shuttering another 129 stores as it desperately attempts to stay alive. Sadly, such scenes are being repeated over and over again all around the country. In fact, things are already so bad that even Manhattan retailing legend Barneys company is likely headed for bankruptcy. The all-time record for store closings in a single year was set in 2017 when 8,139 stores shut down.
    According to a brand new report that was just released, we are on pace to absolutely shatter that old record. In fact, Coresight says that the number of store closings in the U.S. could hit 12,000 by the end of this year.

    Everything that is taking place in the “real economy” makes perfect sense, and unfortunately the economic collapse are likely to accelerate significantly in the months ahead. What doesn’t make sense is what we are witnessing on Wall Street. There is no way that stock prices should be rising like this, but financial bubbles don’t typically follow rational patterns. Instead, they usually just keep going until something comes along to end them. - it will be the biggest stock market crash in the history of mankind.

    And considering everything that is going on in the world right now, that economic collapse could definitely arrive sooner rather than later.

  6. #6
    The barbaric, barbarian and useless industrial metal gold is up $10 this morning...

    https://www.kitco.com/index.html?sitetype=fullsite

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by West View Post
    The barbaric, barbarian and useless industrial metal gold is up $10 this morning...

    https://www.kitco.com/index.html?sitetype=fullsite
    Surprise....surprise!!!
    Sow the Wind....Reap the Whirlwind

  8. #8
    China Preparing for WW3 Hoarding Gold & Food !! #ww3

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6iJq7Udats

    The Atlantis Report
    Published on Aug 10, 2019
    Bloomberg reported Wednesday morning that China bought nearly 10 tons of gold in July, marking the eighth consecutive month the country increased its reserves .
    Anyone who believes that China only acquired 10 tonnes of Gold last month must be delusional. They've got at least 15,000 metric tonnes minimum. We don't even know if the U.S. has anything left except for gold clad tungsten. My sources tell me the Bush family and the Clintons emptied it all out long ago.
    China is also hoarding food and other commodities as
    Russia and China are drawing closer .China has approved wheat imports from the Russian region of Kurgan, the Chinese customs office said on Friday, bringing Russia a step closer to its goal of dramatically increasing grain exports.

    It also approved soybean imports from all parts of Russia, the General Administration of Customs said in a separate statement on its website, having all but halted U.S. soy imports as the trade dispute between Beijing and Washington deepened.
    For the full transcript go to https://financearmageddon.blogspot.com

    This presentation contains images that were used under a Creative Commons License. Click here to see the full list of images and attributions:

    https://link.attribute.to/cc/375503

    #worldwar #ww #history #war #memes

  9. #9
    At the beginning of the year we started with around 3 trillion on the sidelines. Some of that cash has already been deployed in buy-back on market dips. More has been depleted buying Unicorns that have come to market. Very few of them are holding their IPO price and at the beginning of the year the value of unicorns coming to market was over three trillion. Now that three trillion that we started with can be leveraged but that doesn't mean that leveraging was the right idea. Here is a new trading commodity for you. Gold bugs will love it. We are deflating question is are you depressing?


    The Diamond Standard

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos...nto-gold-video

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Maidenhead
    Posts
    28,838
    And with all this going on what are the multi-billion in assets hedge fund managers doing with their clients money? Rushing into the ‘safety’ of sovereign debt with yields below the inflation rate or even negative rates where you are basically paying the government to take your money away from you.....insanity! And yet if you mention the gold word most of them react towards you like a vampire seeing a stake and wreath of garlic.
    What is the lake of fire? What is it's purpose? Is the lake of fire eternal hell? Is there any hope of escape for those cast into this lake?
    http://bible-truths.com/lake1.html

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Aug 2001
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    Sioux City, Iowa
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    3,793
    Quote Originally Posted by China Connection View Post
    Easy to answer. Food prices and new goods will go up in price. Second hand stuff will crash.
    I noticed food has gone up about 8% where I shop since last week.

  12. #12
    Join Date
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    SE Georgia
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    4,343
    Quote Originally Posted by David Nettleton View Post
    I noticed food has gone up about 8% where I shop since last week.
    That has been going on for a while. What you are looking for is an acceleration of the increases. The increase alone is not enough.

    I am starting to see a bit of acceleration in prices, but it still could be a seasonal thing still. Time will tell.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by China Connection View Post
    Easy to answer. Food prices and new goods will go up in price. Second hand stuff will crash.
    I don't believe that this is entirely accurate. Yes, food prices and new goods will go up in price, but as new goods become increasingly unaffordable, 2nd-hand items should logically retain (or increase) their value.

    Best
    Doc

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
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    Southwest (enjoy it!)
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doc1 View Post
    I don't believe that this is entirely accurate. Yes, food prices and new goods will go up in price, but as new goods become increasingly unaffordable, 2nd-hand items should logically retain (or increase) their value.

    Best
    Doc
    It is possible there would be exceptions because new stuff can more easily be purchased on credit while used stuff, not so much.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Doc1 View Post
    I don't believe that this is entirely accurate. Yes, food prices and new goods will go up in price, but as new goods become increasingly unaffordable, 2nd-hand items should logically retain (or increase) their value.

    Best
    Doc
    I believe he means that the availability of second-hand items will crash.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
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    SE Georgia
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    4,343
    Quote Originally Posted by Doc1 View Post
    I don't believe that this is entirely accurate. Yes, food prices and new goods will go up in price, but as new goods become increasingly unaffordable, 2nd-hand items should logically retain (or increase) their value.

    Best
    Doc
    You would think! Yet I have seen them drop. My brother used to be able to make a living selling 2nd hand. He has said the market has just dried up. It has been replaced by cheap Chinese goods.

  17. #17
    As manufacturing collapses due to poor orders shut downs will occur and re-startups cost big and these costs will have to be passed on to consumers.

    When every one meaning the working class has to spend all their earnings on food and warmth, what is left for anything else? Good luck getting rent money. So people will be selling everything that they can do without but who will be buying. It will be a buyers market. Welcome to inflation big time.


    From what I believe at the moment the party meaning good times will be over by the end of next month meaning this September. The U.S. dollar will have collapsed. Probably a bank holiday will be on. Europe will go first but only just.

  18. #18
    Well right now it takes 88 ounces of silver to trade for a ounce of gold. And the letter H is the 8th letter in the alphabet....


  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by West View Post
    Well right now it takes 88 ounces of silver to trade for a ounce of gold. And the letter H is the 8th letter in the alphabet....

    Futures down



    ..something may be UP.
    Sow the Wind....Reap the Whirlwind

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
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    in the middle of GA
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    2,462
    what's going on in argentina

    ETA---surprise election results and market dumps

  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Murt View Post
    what's going on in argentina

    ETA---surprise election results and market dumps
    It looks like their economy is collapsing
    Sow the Wind....Reap the Whirlwind

  22. #22
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by doctor_fungcool View Post
    It looks like their economy is collapsing
    Again

  23. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by hiwall View Post
    Again
    The domino effect may be in play.
    Sow the Wind....Reap the Whirlwind

  24. #24
    Mexican peso dropping along with Argentine currency.
    Sow the Wind....Reap the Whirlwind

  25. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by hiwall View Post
    It is possible there would be exceptions because new stuff can more easily be purchased on credit while used stuff, not so much.
    Hiwall, this is entirely possible. I will note that in my area (the Gulf South) items like used cars and trucks and boats are priced very high (IMHO). I'll also note that since I'm in the market for a bigger boat I've been calling several sellers on Craigslist. I've noticed a couple of things: First, the ads are staying up longer and are often being reposted. Secondly, I am friendly with the sellers in conversation and try to establish a rapport with them. Many bemoan the fact that they aren't getting any calls and often explain that they can't lower their prices due to debt. I'm sympathetic, but in truth their debts aren't my problem.

    I too am expecting a crash in the near term and in this context, I expect the boat prices to crash as we get closer to winter, debts be damned. The situation with vehicles is a little different as these are usually more of a necessity than a boat is. People are asking - IMHO - unjustified high premiums for what are in many cases running old junkers. I'm not in the market for a vehicle, but if I were I'd adopt the same strategy that I'm using for a boat. Wait for the crash and squeeze blood out of a turnip. Oh, another phenomenon that I've noticed is the advertisements buying gold and silver are back again. These and the "We Buy Gold" shops pretty much disappeared after the 2011-2013 metals crash, but they are slowly returning.

    FWIW I strongly advise our members to avoid these places, as they usually try to rip you off. One area pawnshop's ad proudly proclaimed that they were offering 500% of face value for pre-'65 silver coins. As of today the metal content of these coins is worth roughly 1235% of face value. Their gold prices were just as bad.

    Best regards
    Doc

  26. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by West View Post
    Well right now it takes 88 ounces of silver to trade for a ounce of gold. And the letter H is the 8th letter in the alphabet....

    The hidden 8's.... Luv it!
    The insanity of the left!

  27. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Doc1 View Post
    Hiwall, this is entirely possible. I will note that in my area (the Gulf South) items like used cars and trucks and boats are priced very high (IMHO). I'll also note that since I'm in the market for a bigger boat I've been calling several sellers on Craigslist. I've noticed a couple of things: First, the ads are staying up longer and are often being reposted. Secondly, I am friendly with the sellers in conversation and try to establish a rapport with them. Many bemoan the fact that they aren't getting any calls and often explain that they can't lower their prices due to debt. I'm sympathetic, but in truth their debts aren't my problem.

    I too am expecting a crash in the near term and in this context, I expect the boat prices to crash as we get closer to winter, debts be damned. The situation with vehicles is a little different as these are usually more of a necessity than a boat is. People are asking - IMHO - unjustified high premiums for what are in many cases running old junkers. I'm not in the market for a vehicle, but if I were I'd adopt the same strategy that I'm using for a boat. Wait for the crash and squeeze blood out of a turnip. Oh, another phenomenon that I've noticed is the advertisements buying gold and silver are back again. These and the "We Buy Gold" shops pretty much disappeared after the 2011-2013 metals crash, but they are slowly returning.

    FWIW I strongly advise our members to avoid these places, as they usually try to rip you off. One area pawnshop's ad proudly proclaimed that they were offering 500% of face value for pre-'65 silver coins. As of today the metal content of these coins is worth roughly 1235% of face value. Their gold prices were just as bad.

    Best regards
    Doc
    Gold up $23.00 this morning....$1525.00 and change.

    .
    Sow the Wind....Reap the Whirlwind

  28. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by doctor_fungcool View Post
    Gold up $23.00 this morning....$1525.00 and change.

    .
    Argentina's currency in free fall this morning.
    Sow the Wind....Reap the Whirlwind

  29. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by doctor_fungcool View Post
    Argentina's currency in free fall this morning.
    Farmers in my area are going bankrupt at a high rate. Lots of land around here is going unplanted....
    Sow the Wind....Reap the Whirlwind

  30. #30
    All of the European markets are in the RED this morning.
    Sow the Wind....Reap the Whirlwind

  31. #31
    Join Date
    May 2005
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    North Georgia Mountains
    Posts
    1,240
    Hong Kong markets are currently down 2% today after being basically flat all week. This is the lowest levels since january. Tensions related to the protests are still high and this drop might represent a flight to safety or just normal profit taking. The interesting thing about money and the markets is that they hate uncertainty so if china were to roll in troops and crack down on the protests it actually might be good for the stock market over there.

    tbd

  32. #32
    The fall ARMYWORM is destroying crops in China. Many farmers there are becoming penniless.
    Sow the Wind....Reap the Whirlwind

  33. #33
    Join Date
    May 2005
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    North Georgia Mountains
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    Quote Originally Posted by doctor_fungcool View Post
    Farmers in my area are going bankrupt at a high rate. Lots of land around here is going unplanted....
    Its mid august so is the land supposed to be being planted now and what are they not planting

    tbd

  34. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by twobarkingdogs View Post
    Hong Kong markets are currently down 2% today after being basically flat all week. This is the lowest levels since january. Tensions related to the protests are still high and this drop might represent a flight to safety or just normal profit taking. The interesting thing about money and the markets is that they hate uncertainty so if china were to roll in troops and crack down on the protests it actually might be good for the stock market over there.

    tbd
    My guess that Red Army troops will be marching in soon.
    Sow the Wind....Reap the Whirlwind

  35. #35
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
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    Southwest (enjoy it!)
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    Quote Originally Posted by doctor_fungcool View Post
    Argentina's currency in free fall this morning.
    Not surprising after their stock market fell 48% in just one day.

  36. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by twobarkingdogs View Post
    Its mid august so is the land supposed to be being planted now and what are they not planting

    tbd
    Farmers mainly plant corn and soy.

    The Amish plant pumpkins and hay...
    Last edited by doctor_fungcool; 08-13-2019 at 09:31 AM.
    Sow the Wind....Reap the Whirlwind

  37. #37

    ISM(looking back to project forward)

    http://www.instituteforsupplymanagem...grob.cfm?SSO=1

    I would post some charts but my brother calls me a luddite. I have tried. Any way we are showing inflation mostly now in the price of housing, gasoline, and healthcare, that's what I hear on Blomberg anyway.

    Problem with housing in a falling rate environment is people wait for lower rates to buy and build.

    There is a build going on at CUShing.

    http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Lea...YCUOK_MBBL&f=W

    And healthcare. everyone knows about healthcare.

    CRB index.

    http://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crb

    The precious? I have more than I will ever need. At below production prices, way below.

  38. #38
    Dow is up bigtime on the pulling back of some tariffs which were scheduled for Sept. 1.

    Only when China sends iRED ARMY into Hong KONG

    will we see some real action.
    Sow the Wind....Reap the Whirlwind

  39. #39
    Join Date
    May 2004
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    What will happen to these cushy trade deals if the Red Chinese go into Hong Kong?
    SS


    'US delaying China tariffs for some items including cellphones, removing other products from list
    Published 24 min agoUpdated Moments Ago
    Maggie Fitzgerald







    The United States Trade Representative office said Tuesday certain items were being removed from the new China tariff list because of “health, safety, national security and other factors” while tariffs on other items would be delayed until December 15.

    The products in the group that will have tariffs delayed include “cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing,” the USTR said.

    Apple shares traded higher on the news. Best Buy, Nike, Kohl’s and other retailers were also trading higher.

    Last month, President Donald Trump announced a new round of tariffs of 10% on $300 billion of Chinese imports that eluded duties in the earlier round in May. The USTR published a list of products in May that may be subject to an addition 10% tariff and that list is now being edited.

    The USTR added that it will conduct an “exclusion process for products subject to additional tariff.”

    Separately, China’s Commerce Ministry said Vice Premier Liu had a phone call with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lightizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. China said they agreed to another call in two weeks.

    The next round of trade talks were expected to take place in September, after the tariffs went into place.

    Here’s the full statement from the USTR:

    USTR Announces Next Steps on Proposed 10 Percent Tariff on Imports from China

    Washington, DC - The United States Trade Representative (USTR) today announced the next steps in the process of imposing an additional tariff of 10 percent on approximately $300 billion of Chinese imports.

    On May 17, 2019, USTR published a list of products imported from China that would be potentially subject to an additional 10 percent tariff. This new tariff will go into effect on September 1 as announced by President Trump on August 1.

    Certain products are being removed from the tariff list based on health, safety, national security and other factors and will not face additional tariffs of 10 percent.

    Further, as part of USTR’s public comment and hearing process, it was determined that the tariff should be delayed to December 15 for certain articles. Products in this group include, for example, cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing.

    USTR intends to conduct an exclusion process for products subject to the additional tariff.

    The USTR will publish on its website today, and in the Federal Register as soon as possible, additional details and lists of the tariff lines affected by this announcement.

    Correction: An earlier version of the story incorrectly stated cellphones were being removed from list. They are part of the delay.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/13/ustr...-security.html
    “Then the creatures of the high air answered to the battle, .., and the woods trembled and the wind sobbed telling them, the earth shook,; the witches of the valley, and the wolves of the forests, howled from every quarter and on every side of the armies, urging them against one another.”
    ― Lady Gregory, Gods and Fighting Men: The Story of the Tuatha De Danaan and the Fianna of Ireland

  40. #40
    Dow up about 450
    Gold & Silver getting smacked.
    Bitter Clinger, Deplorable, & Proud of it.

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