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WEATHER TS Barry
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Thread: TS Barry

  1. #1
    Join Date
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    OK
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    TS Barry

    ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. A trough of low pressure over the southeastern United States is
    forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico,
    where a broad low pressure area will likely form in a few days.
    Thereafter, upper-level winds support some development of this
    system while it meanders near the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast
    through Friday.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

    Forecaster Blake


    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

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  2. #2
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    I saw this on Natl. Hurricane site this morning. I don't remember anything like this happening before. That being said, I hope it will bring some rain to the Fl. panhandle. We need it.
    In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people. Source – The Declaration of Independence

  3. #3
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    That seems kind of backwards. Par for the course lately though.
    What is the lake of fire? What is it's purpose? Is the lake of fire eternal hell? Is there any hope of escape for those cast into this lake?
    http://bible-truths.com/lake1.html

  4. #4
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    Yeah going in the reverse order here.

  5. #5
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    It's fouring? You think it'll five at some point?

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dennis Olson View Post
    It's fouring? You think it'll five at some point?
    I have Sat's old keyboard...the one with a messed up "M".
    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

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  7. #7
    Weird weather all around, no?

  8. #8
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    I'm skeptical. Maybe their crystal ball is better than mine.

    Monday 8 pm.gif

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Millwright View Post
    I have Sat's old keyboard...the one with a messed up "M".
    It was the N
    "Man is not to be blamed for sinning. After all, he faces great temptations and is extremely vulnerable. What he is blamed for is not doing Teshuvah (repenting) because he can do that at any time." Rav Simcha Bunim of P'shischa

  10. #10
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    I'm lovin' this solar minimum!
    Strange times are causing stranger measures...

    1Cor 13:13 And now abideth faith, hope, charity, these three; but the greatest of these [is] charity.
    I Believe in a Just God.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by fairbanksb View Post
    I saw this on Natl. Hurricane site this morning. I don't remember anything like this happening before. That being said, I hope it will bring some rain to the Fl. panhandle. We need it.
    Amen!

    We need it here in GA as well! Will gladly take some of the rain off the heartland for a spell.
    Recently a friend told me I am delusional, I almost fell off my Unicorn!

  12. #12
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    https://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...-week/70008758

    July 07, 2019
    US Gulf Coast put on alert for potential tropical storm to form late week
    By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

    After more than a month of inactivity in the tropical Atlantic basin, there is concern for development in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico with potential impacts to residents and visitors later this week.

    A non-tropical system tracking through and triggering showers and thunderstorms across the South early this week will eventually end up over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico around midweek.

    "The storm will then sit over the eastern Gulf of Mexico for a few days and may eventually become partially or fully tropical in nature during the time period from late this week into next weekend," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.

    Dry air, dust and strong wind shear has prevented tropical development across the Atlantic basin since Subtropical Storm Andrea briefly roamed the waters of the west-central Atlantic in late May.
    However, more conducive conditions exist over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
    With strong wind shear absent, warmer-than-normal waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico can allow an organized tropical or subtropical system to take shape.

    The next tropical storm in the Atlantic basin would be called Barry.

    A subtropical storm has both tropical and non-tropical characteristics, but can be just as impactful in terms of heavy rain, rough seas and strong winds.

    "One of the keys to whether a depression or storm will form is how close the system tracks to the coast," Douty added. "The longer the system remains over water, the stronger it may become," he said. "However, it may stay non-tropical if it sits near land."
    Regardless of development, the system may lead to multiple days of showers and thunderstorms that can spoil vacation and outdoor plans across the Southeast this week.
    Flood dangers can arise in areas that get hit repeatedly by downpours or where a more concentrated band of heavy rain unfolds.
    "Based on latest indications, residents from western Florida to eastern Louisiana should especially remain alert for an increase in downpours and heightened risk for flooding later this week and into the start of the weekend," Douty said.

    The downpours may start to ramp up over western and northern Florida around midweek before spreading westward, depending on the storm's eventual track.
    "If the system does strengthen into a named tropical storm, damaging wind would also become a concern near its center," Douty added.
    Seas would turn dangerously rough for boaters and swimmers as the storm strengthens.
    Latest indications keep the potential tropical storm east of the majority of the oil rigs and refineries along the Gulf coast, but AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to closely monitor the system for any westward trends that could lead to more significant disruptions.
    After the system leaves the Gulf of Mexico, its eventual track will determine whether heavy rain aims for the Tennessee Valley or the Carolinas starting later next weekend.
    AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski has been warning since early April that the Gulf of Mexico, as well as areas east of Bermuda and off the southeastern coast of the U.S. need to be watched closely for early season development due to water temperatures running above normal.
    AccuWeather’s 2019 predictions have not changed since the initial forecast was released on April 3.
    Forecasters continue to call for 12 to 14 tropical cyclones this season. Of those, five to seven are predicted to become hurricanes and two to four are predicted to become major hurricanes.
    While El Niño conditions may suppress the numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin somewhat this year, all it takes is for one or two hurricanes to strike populated areas and result in great risk to lives and property.
    This year, AccuWeather will implement its RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes to assist with public safety and understanding, as well as risk of damage should a tropical threat arise.
    Tropical Storm Emily from 2017 was the last time that a named tropical system made landfall in the United States during the month of July. Emily formed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and moved into the central Florida Peninsula on the last day of July.

  13. #13
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    Doesn't look like much, right now.

    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

    Member: Nowski Brigade

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  14. #14
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    Hay now, what makes you folks in Alabama and Georgia send a tropical weather system to Texas? It is supposed to be the other way around!

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pilgram View Post
    Hay now, what makes you folks in Alabama and Georgia send a tropical weather system to Texas? It is supposed to be the other way around!
    I don't remember one going that way
    Tax the rich, feed the poor, til there are, rich no more - Ten Years After
    Surely you're not saying we have the resources to save the poor from their lot. -JCSS
    Friend, you cannot legislate the poor into freedom by legislating the wealthy out of freedom. And what one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving. The government can't give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody.

  16. #16
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    161
    Nor do i

  17. #17
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    Dec 2017
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    TX
    Posts
    2,430
    This is a rare setup. But it's got my attention...

  18. #18
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    store food.

    Judy

  19. #19
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    OK
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    Looks like it wants to run west along the gulf coast. (Map in post #1 auto-updates)

    This is a pisser of epic proportions. I'm headed down to Freeport this weekend. No offshore fishing for me.


    15NM S Freeport TX
    Marine Point Forecast


    Tonight
    S wind around 10 kt. Mostly clear. Seas around 2 ft.
    Tuesday
    SSW wind around 10 kt. Mostly sunny. Seas around 2 ft.
    Tuesday Night
    S wind around 10 kt. Mostly clear. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
    Wednesday
    SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Mostly sunny. Seas around 2 ft.
    Wednesday Night
    S wind 5 to 10 kt becoming WSW after midnight. Mostly clear. Seas around 2 ft.
    Thursday
    W wind 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
    Thursday Night
    SW wind 5 to 10 kt becoming NNW after midnight. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Seas around 1 ft.
    Friday
    N wind 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Seas around 1 ft.
    Friday Night
    Variable winds 5 kt or less. Winds could gust as high as 20 kt. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Seas 1 to 2 ft.

    And seas will be crap by Sunday, no doubt.
    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

    Member: Nowski Brigade

    Deplorable


  20. #20
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    cornfield county
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    20 hmm,



    one of the many odd things before a poleshift?

    sometimes you wonder, just wonder, in the back spaces of your mind, that's all,

    no scientific fact, just a wondering, and you go read revelations , again
    If heaven is gained by merit your dog will get in before you Mark Twain

    "Yeah liberal puke it's going to happen. Ain't it cool? And when you're all lined up against a wall and shot, your last sights will be the American people you pissed on for years getting back at you. Enjoy."( best line of the week, thanks AlfaMan)

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Txkstew View Post
    I'm skeptical. Maybe their crystal ball is better than mine.

    Attachment 168813
    I'll keep watching, but otherwise I agree. It looks improbable.
    Your levity is good, it relieves tension and the fear of death.

    The Frigid Times - http://www.frigidtimes.blogspot.com/
    Civil Defense Reborn - http://cdreborn.blogspot.com/
    Believe what you will, but the Russian nuclear threat is far from dead. It ain't even sick. - Brutus

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Txkstew View Post
    https://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...-week/70008758

    July 07, 2019
    US Gulf Coast put on alert for potential tropical storm to form late week
    By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

    After more than a month of inactivity in the tropical Atlantic basin, there is concern for development in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico with potential impacts to residents and visitors later this week.

    A non-tropical system tracking through and triggering showers and thunderstorms across the South early this week will eventually end up over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico around midweek.

    "The storm will then sit over the eastern Gulf of Mexico for a few days and may eventually become partially or fully tropical in nature during the time period from late this week into next weekend," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.

    Dry air, dust and strong wind shear has prevented tropical development across the Atlantic basin since Subtropical Storm Andrea briefly roamed the waters of the west-central Atlantic in late May.
    However, more conducive conditions exist over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
    With strong wind shear absent, warmer-than-normal waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico can allow an organized tropical or subtropical system to take shape.

    The next tropical storm in the Atlantic basin would be called Barry.

    A subtropical storm has both tropical and non-tropical characteristics, but can be just as impactful in terms of heavy rain, rough seas and strong winds.

    "One of the keys to whether a depression or storm will form is how close the system tracks to the coast," Douty added. "The longer the system remains over water, the stronger it may become," he said. "However, it may stay non-tropical if it sits near land."
    Regardless of development, the system may lead to multiple days of showers and thunderstorms that can spoil vacation and outdoor plans across the Southeast this week.

    Flood dangers can arise in areas that get hit repeatedly by downpours or where a more concentrated band of heavy rain unfolds.
    "Based on latest indications, residents from western Florida to eastern Louisiana should especially remain alert for an increase in downpours and heightened risk for flooding later this week and into the start of the weekend," Douty said.

    The downpours may start to ramp up over western and northern Florida around midweek before spreading westward, depending on the storm's eventual track.
    "If the system does strengthen into a named tropical storm, damaging wind would also become a concern near its center," Douty added.
    Seas would turn dangerously rough for boaters and swimmers as the storm strengthens.
    Latest indications keep the potential tropical storm east of the majority of the oil rigs and refineries along the Gulf coast, but AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to closely monitor the system for any westward trends that could lead to more significant disruptions.
    After the system leaves the Gulf of Mexico, its eventual track will determine whether heavy rain aims for the Tennessee Valley or the Carolinas starting later next weekend.
    AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski has been warning since early April that the Gulf of Mexico, as well as areas east of Bermuda and off the southeastern coast of the U.S. need to be watched closely for early season development due to water temperatures running above normal.
    AccuWeather’s 2019 predictions have not changed since the initial forecast was released on April 3.
    Forecasters continue to call for 12 to 14 tropical cyclones this season. Of those, five to seven are predicted to become hurricanes and two to four are predicted to become major hurricanes.
    While El Niño conditions may suppress the numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin somewhat this year, all it takes is for one or two hurricanes to strike populated areas and result in great risk to lives and property.
    This year, AccuWeather will implement its RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes to assist with public safety and understanding, as well as risk of damage should a tropical threat arise.
    Tropical Storm Emily from 2017 was the last time that a named tropical system made landfall in the United States during the month of July. Emily formed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and moved into the central Florida Peninsula on the last day of July.
    The thread title is misleading and people should read this article and maybe understand it better.

    It's not tropical yet; and especially was not while it was in Tennessee yesterday.

    I bolded and highlighted the pertinent explanations and info.
    Nana to two "little bits", one not-so-little "little bit" and one 6' college bound "little bit"

  23. #23
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  24. #24
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    That mess has sat on us over a week, storms, tropical humidity it was hell.

    Had to do something.
    Fixed pot of fresh beans with lots of onions and garlic.

    Blew that mess into a vortex. Blasted it Outta here.
    The aftermath is not my problem.
    Do NOT confuse my personality with my attitude.
    My personality depends on ME.
    My attitude depends on YOU.

    Rage, RAGE against the Dying of the Light...
    and the Sound...and the Drums...and The Guitar!

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by flying screwdriver View Post
    That mess has sat on us over a week, storms, tropical humidity it was hell.

    Had to do something.
    Fixed pot of fresh beans with lots of onions and garlic.

    Blew that mess into a vortex. Blasted it Outta here.
    The aftermath is not my problem.

  26. #26
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    Ok, I'm not skeptical anymore. Those guys at the National Weather Service must have something going for them to have seen this forming 3 or 4 days ago. Looks like I might be getting wet this weekend.

    GOES16_abi_conus_20190710_091631_band13.jpg

  27. #27
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    Still all over the place though.

    66213104_10156199176261604_3557846767934373888_n.jpg

  28. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Txkstew View Post
    Still all over the place though.

    Attachment 169042
    I can’t see out from under all this spaghetti.

    Seriously though, the models are coalescing and it looks like I will be getting some extreme amounts of rain. Prayers are appreciated.
    "...Awake thou that sleepest, and arise from the dead, and Christ shall give thee light. See then that ye walk circumspectly, not as fools, but as wise, Redeeming the time, because the days are evil." - Ephesians 5:14-17

  29. #29
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    I think Joe Bastardi is going with the Euro model this morning, which seems to take it right to where TX & LA meet. We're watching it closely, too. It's hard to read those darn spaghetti models.

  30. #30
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    Oct 2014
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    SE Georgia
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    Quote Originally Posted by pauldingbabe View Post
    Amen!

    We need it here in GA as well! Will gladly take some of the rain off the heartland for a spell.
    Yeah, but we are also going to get some flooding from it.

  31. #31
    I am seeing films on twitter (I couldn't get them to copy) of the French Quarter looking like a river is running through it, any updates from forum members in the area or with access to more local news on this one?

    Without good links that twitter film could be real or a rehash of some previous floods.
    expatriate Californian living in rural Ireland with husband, dogs, horses. garden and many, many cats

  32. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by Melodi View Post
    I am seeing films on twitter (I couldn't get them to copy) of the French Quarter looking like a river is running through it, any updates from forum members in the area or with access to more local news on this one?

    Without good links that twitter film could be real or a rehash of some previous floods.
    This is correct, I'll bring over some photos in a second but the flooding in NOLA right now isn't necessarily related to this 92L. It was a strong band that moved through early morning that dumped about 4"-6" of rain. Theory is that the pumps are not capable of keeping up due to the Bonnet Carre being open and the River being very high. There is nowhere for the water to go.

    This tropical system has the potential to be catastrophic from NOLA to Lake Charles if the rain fall estimates are to be believed. They are looking for 20"-30" in my area. Remember that the Mississippi is full up to the brim from MO/IL all the way down through the gulf. I've read on the local boards here that this will be an unprecedented event (direct hit from a tropical system with the river at a high flood stage and spillways already open).
    "...Awake thou that sleepest, and arise from the dead, and Christ shall give thee light. See then that ye walk circumspectly, not as fools, but as wise, Redeeming the time, because the days are evil." - Ephesians 5:14-17

  33. #33
    https://www.facebook.com/brett.liret...type=3&theater

    Video of Canal St. (NOLA) street flooding. RT 0:18
    "...Awake thou that sleepest, and arise from the dead, and Christ shall give thee light. See then that ye walk circumspectly, not as fools, but as wise, Redeeming the time, because the days are evil." - Ephesians 5:14-17

  34. #34
    Canal St. NOLA
    Attached Images
    "...Awake thou that sleepest, and arise from the dead, and Christ shall give thee light. See then that ye walk circumspectly, not as fools, but as wise, Redeeming the time, because the days are evil." - Ephesians 5:14-17

  35. #35
    Current Cone
    Attached Images
    "...Awake thou that sleepest, and arise from the dead, and Christ shall give thee light. See then that ye walk circumspectly, not as fools, but as wise, Redeeming the time, because the days are evil." - Ephesians 5:14-17

  36. #36
    https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydr...lix&gage=norl1

    This is the current estimate for storm surge. NOLA is only protected to 20ft. Some areas not even that high. This could get ugly.
    Attached Images
    "...Awake thou that sleepest, and arise from the dead, and Christ shall give thee light. See then that ye walk circumspectly, not as fools, but as wise, Redeeming the time, because the days are evil." - Ephesians 5:14-17

  37. #37
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    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

    Member: Nowski Brigade

    Deplorable


  38. #38
    Right outside the Superdome
    Attached Images
    "...Awake thou that sleepest, and arise from the dead, and Christ shall give thee light. See then that ye walk circumspectly, not as fools, but as wise, Redeeming the time, because the days are evil." - Ephesians 5:14-17

  39. #39
    waterspout in Lake Ponchartrain
    Attached Images
    "...Awake thou that sleepest, and arise from the dead, and Christ shall give thee light. See then that ye walk circumspectly, not as fools, but as wise, Redeeming the time, because the days are evil." - Ephesians 5:14-17

  40. #40
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    Love that waterspout picture.

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