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ECON The 'doomsday' scenario: Here's what happens if the shutdown drags on (Yay! DOOOOOM!!)
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  1. #1
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    The 'doomsday' scenario: Here's what happens if the shutdown drags on (Yay! DOOOOOM!!)

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/pol...-drags-n955946

    The 'doomsday' scenario: Here's what happens if the shutdown drags on

    Economists warn that a catastrophe is in the making if the partial government closure continues for weeks or months.

    With government shutdown negotiations stalled, what's next?
    Jan. 10, 2019, 4:46 AM EST / Updated Jan. 10, 2019, 8:36 AM EST
    By Dareh Gregorian

    The country would face an economic hellscape if the government shutdown lasts "months or even years," as the president has suggested it might, experts tell NBC News.
    The doomsday scenario might be unlikely the longest the federal government has ever shut down is 21 days, a record that will fall if the current closure lasts until Saturday but it is chilling.

    "We'll be in no man's land," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told NBC News.

    If the worst were to happen, experts say the devastating impact would be widespread:
    38 million low-income Americans lose food stamps
    6 million face an uncertain timetable for collecting tax refunds
    2 million without rental assistance and facing possible eviction
    800,000 paycheck-less federal employees plunged into dire financial straits
    Shuttered parks and museums while overstressed airports cause tourism to tank
    Federal court system slows to a crawl
    Disaster relief money doesn't get to storm-ravaged areas
    Lapsed FDA and EPA inspections lead to dangerous outbreaks
    Private companies looking to go public are stuck in limbo
    Stock market plummets

    The end isn't near yet. But if the standoff persists talks blew up at the White House on Wednesday and Congress and President Donald Trump can't reach a deal on raising the debt ceiling in a few months, "it's game over you'll have a pretty severe recession," Zandi said, adding that given the trade war with China, and Brexit looming, "you could start seeing some pretty dark scenarios" worldwide.

    WITHOUT FOOD, HOMES
    By the end of February, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, run by the Department of Agriculture, would be out of funding meaning almost 40 million low-income Americans could find themselves struggling to pay for food, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for the accounting firm RSM US.

    The Department of Housing and Urban Development, meanwhile, has already seen 1,150 contracts with private landlords housing low-income tenants lapse. Another 500 will expire by the end of this month, and another 550 by the end of February, the agency says.

    Funding for rental assistance for millions of tenants could be at risk as soon as next month.

    "The near-term impact is people getting evicted, having their heat turned off and not having enough food," Brusuelas said.

    Drawn out over time, that could amount to a sizable hit on the GDP. Loss of the SNAP benefits could mean $60 billion less in direct spending in a year, and indirect spending of another $48 billion, which could shave a full percentage point off the country's economic growth, he explained.

    Others might find themselves with less money in their pockets.
    The IRS has said it won't be able to pay tax refunds during the shutdown, although the Office of Management and Budget said on Monday that it would. Less than 10,000 workers about 12 percent of IRS staff are working during the shutdown.
    The agency is coming up with a plan to call back more employees, but they'll face an avalanche of backed-up work by Feb. 2 of last year, the agency had already received over 18 million returns and processed 6.1 million refunds.

    "The people who are waiting on those refunds could face some real consequences," said Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

    Then there are the 800,000 government employees who aren't getting paid during the shutdown even though about half of them still have to work.

    "Workers are going to to start walking out and find better paying jobs," Brusuelas said. If they don't, some will be in danger of not being able to pay their rents or mortgages and losing their homes creating a drag on the economy.

    TOURISM DEVASTATED
    No-shows by airport workers including TSA agents and air traffic controllers would mean delays and canceled flights, hurting business dealings and tourism.

    Tourism would also continue to fall at national parks, a third of which were closed when the shutdown went into effect. Others were kept open but, without staffing, human waste has piled up in bathrooms and along popular trails.

    Some parks are planning to stay open by tapping into collection fees that were meant to be used for future park projects. Raiding those funds is unsustainable and will hamper future development plans, said Emily Douce, director of budget and appropriations for the National Parks Conservation Association.

    In the meantime, parks are losing the $400,000 in daily fees they typically collect and neighboring communities aren't benefiting from the average $20 million a day that visitors spend there.

    PUBLIC IN DANGER
    The Food and Drug Administration has already stopped most food inspections, raising the risk of salmonella, E. coli and listeria outbreaks.

    "That puts our food supply at risk," said Sarah Sorscher, deputy director of regulatory affairs at the Center for Science in the Public Interest, a consumer advocacy group.
    The Environmental Protection Agency, where only 700 of 13,000 employees are working during the shutdown, has scaled back inspections, with senior officials focusing only on properties where "the threat to human life or property is imminent."

    Areas that have already been affected by hurricanes and storms are facing additional problems because of the shutdown, with emergency recovery funds reportedly tied up in bureaucratic red tape.

    It seems unimaginable, but if the impasse continues into October, more vital federal agencies would be forced to shut down, and new dangers would loom. Among the agencies that would turn their lights off is the Department of Health and Human Services and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    A more immediate worry: The federal court system will run out of money by Jan. 18, and will have to cut back operations.

    STOCK SHOCK
    The longer the shutdown goes on, the more likely it is to affect the stock market, experts said.

    Analysts had been looking forward to a string of valuable multibillion companies that were expected to go public early this year. But now, as many as 40 initial public offerings are backlogged because the Securities and Exchange Commission doesn't have the staff to review them.

    "The market was waiting for this huge avalanche of IPOs," said John Coffee Jr., director of the Center on Corporate Governance at Columbia Law School. "All of this stuff is on hold. The market is fluctuating wildly, and this is going to remove a stimulus."

    Even with no end to the shutdown in sight, Brusuelas predicted that public outrage will lead to one soon enough.

    "Workers are going to start walking out," he said. "People will take to the streets."
    The wonder of our time isnt how angry we are at politics and politicians; its how little weve done about it. - Fran Porretto
    -http://bastionofliberty.blogspot.com/2016/10/a-wholly-rational-hatred.html

  2. #2
    AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH let the party begin, Ive waited long enugh

  3. #3
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    DOGS AND CATS, LIVING TOGETHER! MASS HYSTERIA!

    Still, this is the first time I've ever heard the words "economic hellscape" come out of NBC. Bravo, fellas, where were you in 2008?

  4. #4
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    If those 800,000 walk off the job and we're in a recession, where will they get a job? If I were Nancy & Chucky they might want to give Trump what he wants. Ever play the game of Spades? Black ace of spades is the card Trump is holding, Trump gets the last trick. Trump is in it to win.
    People create their own questions because they are afraid to look straight. All you have to do is look straight and see the road, and when you see it, don't sit looking at it - walk. Ayn Rand

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bardou View Post
    If those 800,000 walk off the job and we're in a recession, where will they get a job? If I were Nancy & Chucky they might want to give Trump what he wants. Ever play the game of Spades? Black ace of spades is the card Trump is holding, Trump gets the last trick. Trump is in it to win.
    They'll find new employment as "unanticipated wealth redistribution agents."

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shooter View Post
    AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH let the party begin, Ive waited long enugh
    I agree. Maybe this will be the long awaited trigger at last!

  7. #7

  8. #8
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    I found this on MSN this morning

    Avoid these foods during the government shutdown, experts warn

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/hea...U147DHP#page=2

  9. #9
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    With deference to those who are not getting paid for the vast majority of us this 'shutdown' is a non-event and isn't affecting us whatsoever. And since a lot of those employees are considered non-essential then why do they have jobs to being with? Since we are told that the economy is doing so good the government can and should eliminate all non-essential employees and quit stealing our money to pay them and then they can easily go and get other jobs with a 3.8% unemployment rate......right?
    What is the lake of fire? What is it's purpose? Is the lake of fire eternal hell? Is there any hope of escape for those cast into this lake?
    http://bible-truths.com/lake1.html

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hfcomms View Post
    With deference to those who are not getting paid for the vast majority of us this 'shutdown' is a non-event and isn't affecting us whatsoever. And since a lot of those employees are considered non-essential then why do they have jobs to being with? Since we are told that the economy is doing so good the government can and should eliminate all non-essential employees and quit stealing our money to pay them and then they can easily go and get other jobs with a 3.8% unemployment rate......right?
    I have been wondering if this was the plan all along to prove the point that more jobs need to be eliminated and this was a shortcut to eliminate a lot of jobs and then force the democrats into a corner where they have to simplify regulations...
    1 Corinthians 18:20 I will destroy the wisdom of the wise;
    the intelligence of the intelligent I will frustrate.

  11. #11
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    I read this much.

    I like it when the source is put at the top of the post.


    The 'doomsday' scenario: Here's what happens if the shutdown drags on (Yay! DOOOOOM!!)

    http ://www.nbcnews.com

  12. #12
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    Let it ride and see who blinks first.
    Meanwhile, life goes on.

    (I've watched horse traders work their art all my life. I hope Trump hasn't forgotten what he has learned in the trenches...he's supposed to be a master. We will see.)

  13. #13
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    Supposedly if the shutdown lasts another 10 days or so, it will cost the taxpayers about $6 billion which is more than Trump was asking for the border security.

  14. #14
    But here in Topeka the rain is a fallin'
    The faucet is a drippin' and the kids are a bawlin'
    One of 'em a toddlin' and one is a crawlin'
    And one's on the way
    hogwash

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by hiwall View Post
    Supposedly if the shutdown lasts another 10 days or so, it will cost the taxpayers about $6 billion which is more than Trump was asking for the border security.
    I'm curious how the shutdown will cost x amount of dollars? Is that the cost of retroactively paying those on furlough? (which has always been the case...)
    Buckle up, boys and girls. This could get a bit rough.

    Gardening: the next great hobby!
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  16. #16
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    The OP and the MSN article in the later post are "Doom light." 1/3 the calories. The point in the MSN article that we should cook our raw veggies now because the FDA isn't on the job anymore to make them safe must be some kind of Lexus-driver, yuppie doom. This is Bambi doom. Rated G.

    You want doom? Real doom? How about you can't cook at all because you won't have electricity for many years? How about the FDA can't do their job because they got a 300 kiloton government shutdown in DC?
    "As the rising of the sun is clear to all, so the glory of the Lord fills all his works."

  17. #17
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    Trump is zinging them today for sure. Elections have consequences. Take that Obama! He is undoing everything you ever did.
    Attached Images
    What is the lake of fire? What is it's purpose? Is the lake of fire eternal hell? Is there any hope of escape for those cast into this lake?
    http://bible-truths.com/lake1.html

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spot View Post
    I found this on MSN this morning

    Avoid these foods during the government shutdown, experts warn

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/hea...U147DHP#page=2
    Even with the FDA over seeing these products, we still have recalls! They get reported here all the time.

    And this is why I Love Trump!

    People create their own questions because they are afraid to look straight. All you have to do is look straight and see the road, and when you see it, don't sit looking at it - walk. Ayn Rand

  19. It’ll never get to that point. Trump has balls, but they aren’t that big.

  20. #20
    My only concern at this point is that Mr Trump seems to be too eager to give up things in this negotiation, and that translates to giving power to the Nancy / Chucky duo.
    I have already heard him say a few times that he is willing to negotiate on the wall if they meet him half way. Concerns me a little a I feel if he stays strong, he will get everything he wants.

    Go President Trump!!!

  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Hfcomms View Post
    Trump is zinging them today for sure. Elections have consequences. Take that Obama! He is undoing everything you ever did.
    Then lock her up! Lock her up!
    Proverbs 11:20 God cant stand deceivers, but oh how he relishes integrity.

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by TammyinWI View Post
    Then lock her up! Lock her up!
    He can't do that....unless you pine for a dictator that has absolute unquestioned authority?
    What is the lake of fire? What is it's purpose? Is the lake of fire eternal hell? Is there any hope of escape for those cast into this lake?
    http://bible-truths.com/lake1.html

  23. #23
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    The Bambi Shutdown has not had any impact on me or my family.
    Crimes committed by illegal aliens, however, have had a bid impact on our lives.
    SS
    Then the creatures of the high air answered to the battle, .., and the woods trembled and the wind sobbed telling them, the earth shook,; the witches of the valley, and the wolves of the forests, howled from every quarter and on every side of the armies, urging them against one another.
    ― Lady Gregory, Gods and Fighting Men: The Story of the Tuatha De Danaan and the Fianna of Ireland

  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Hfcomms View Post
    He can't do that....unless you pine for a dictator that has absolute unquestioned authority?
    That is exactly what i don't want. But this was another campaign promise that we heard many, many times, just like "build that wall."
    Proverbs 11:20 God cant stand deceivers, but oh how he relishes integrity.

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by TammyinWI View Post
    That is exactly what i don't want. But this was another campaign promise that we heard many, many times, just like "build that wall."
    How many times do you have to be told that he can't be held responsible for any of those at this point? He's being fought by almost everyone in Washington, including elements of his own party!

  26. #26
    nbc news and msn…..ha...ha...ha.... Keep er shut down since that keeps the demoncrats from doing anything. Meanwhile, enjoy your paid vacations.

  27. #27
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    Except even those that already were on vacation aren’t getting paid. Maybe they will eventually.
    Too bad they didn’t have a few hundred pounds of rice and beans stored. You can negotiate with your mortgage bank, they know what is going, but hard to do with the store.
    "...Cry 'Havoc' and let slip the cats of war..."
    Its a real pisser when your belief system gets T-boned by reality.
    Im not afraid of dying...I just dont want to be there!
    ...sell your cloak, and buy a sword...Second Amendment 1.0

  28. #28
    Essential employees in many agencies are basically The Managers and others who are needed for reasons of National Security or Public Health.

    So for example in my old office during the Shutdown (where my former boss would e-mail me with updates) HE was the ONLY person in the office.

    Since the "job" of that agency was to both inspect the Welfare Offices (State and sometimes Country) for FIVE States and several US Territories; as well as write, modify and update AFDC (Welfare) regulations; as well as clerks who were secretaries, payroll clerks, as well as the INSPECTORS were all considered NON-Essential because the building wasn't going to burn down if they were not there.

    My former boss was there mostly to keep the lights on and make sure nothing "walked away" during the shutdown; there is no way on Earth, with the best will in the world that he could have done the work of seven specialists and at least 8 support staff; nor could he have traveled to both Arizona and Guam doing CONGRESSIONALLY MANDATED inspections during the same week.

    I hope this gets across the idea of what the Federal Civil Service considers essential; TSA Agents and Air Traffic Controllers have to report to work paid or not (at least in theory) but the clerks, payroll people, janitors and all sorts of other support folks won't be there.

    But as I've said before: What happens if this goes on for a long time?

    In a good economy, people go find other jobs and that will include "Essential" employees on the lower levels who are not getting paid and who have bills to pay now.

    There is no legal guarantee that anyone will get back pay, it is a tradition, but Congress has to pass the law and the President has to sign it.
    expatriate Californian living in rural Ireland with husband, dogs, horses. garden and many, many cats

  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Melodi View Post
    Essential employees in many agencies are basically The Managers and others who are needed for reasons of National Security or Public Health.

    So for example in my old office during the Shutdown (where my former boss would e-mail me with updates) HE was the ONLY person in the office.

    Since the "job" of that agency was to both inspect the Welfare Offices (State and sometimes Country) for FIVE States and several US Territories; as well as write, modify and update AFDC (Welfare) regulations; as well as clerks who were secretaries, payroll clerks, as well as the INSPECTORS were all considered NON-Essential because the building wasn't going to burn down if they were not there.

    My former boss was there mostly to keep the lights on and make sure nothing "walked away" during the shutdown; there is no way on Earth, with the best will in the world that he could have done the work of seven specialists and at least 8 support staff; nor could he have traveled to both Arizona and Guam doing CONGRESSIONALLY MANDATED inspections during the same week.

    I hope this gets across the idea of what the Federal Civil Service considers essential; TSA Agents and Air Traffic Controllers have to report to work paid or not (at least in theory) but the clerks, payroll people, janitors and all sorts of other support folks won't be there.

    But as I've said before: What happens if this goes on for a long time?

    In a good economy, people go find other jobs and that will include "Essential" employees on the lower levels who are not getting paid and who have bills to pay now.

    There is no legal guarantee that anyone will get back pay, it is a tradition, but Congress has to pass the law and the President has to sign it.
    It will be interesting indeed if the TSA entirely quit to find other jobs. Remember the world before 9-11?
    No TSA. Simply refuse to allow Muslims passage on US airlines. Profile like your life depended on it at the ticket counter...
    Watch ye therefore and pray always that ye may be accounted worthy to escape all these things that shall come to pass and to stand before the Son of Man
    Luke 21:36

    COLLAPSE NOW: avoid the rush

  30. #30
    No matter what, or how one looks at it. It's the globalists who will not pay the trivial five billion dollars, they are the one's who own this. Trump wins no matter, less he caves......so in the mean time, the globalists own this hook line and sinker. And they need to be called what they are, enemies of America.

  31. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Profit of Doom View Post
    You can negotiate with your mortgage bank, they know what is going, but hard to do with the store.
    Here in Central Iowa, if they are truly in need of groceries, they have only to ask. Most of the churches and several other organizations have food pantries, and others (like me) are quietly slipping families HyVee grocery cards (HyVee has gas, too).

    Plus a lot of these employees have a spouse who is working for another employer and still getting a paycheck. Yes, it hurts that they can't go out to dinner, but -- c'mon -- they can still buy food. I don't want to hear some of their whines on the news. I know people who are tons worse off . . .

  32. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by Blacknarwhal View Post
    How many times do you have to be told that he can't be held responsible for any of those at this point? He's being fought by almost everyone in Washington, including elements of his own party!
    How many times do I have to be told?

    He and the Clintons are friends, that's what.
    Proverbs 11:20 God cant stand deceivers, but oh how he relishes integrity.

  33. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Meemur
    Plus a lot of these employees have a spouse who is working for another employer and still getting a paycheck. Yes, it hurts that they can't go out to dinner, but -- c'mon -- they can still buy food. I don't want to hear some of their whines on the news. I know people who are tons worse off . . .
    This is what I've been thinking all along. Plus, these employees know that shutdowns are always possible, so why didn't they do their part in prepping ahead of time like the rest of us do? I can't say that I feel too sorry for them if they were left unprepared.

  34. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by Hfcomms View Post
    With deference to those who are not getting paid for the vast majority of us this 'shutdown' is a non-event and isn't affecting us whatsoever. And since a lot of those employees are considered non-essential then why do they have jobs to being with? Since we are told that the economy is doing so good the government can and should eliminate all non-essential employees and quit stealing our money to pay them and then they can easily go and get other jobs with a 3.8% unemployment rate......right?
    "Essential" employees perform public services that will cause harm or serious inconvenience to citizens if the services are disrupted.

    Non-essential doesn't mean the employee services are not needed.

    In one of the Obama shutdowns, it dragged on so long that some "non-essential" employees were reclassified as "essential" to keep services running and to avoid large backlogs after the shutdown.

  35. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernBreeze View Post
    I can't say that I feel too sorry for them if they were left unprepared.
    Ditto. The ones I'm helping have a spouse fighting cancer or a very ill child. These unfortunate events wiped out their savings, and they are basically living hand to mouth, but have fallen though the cracks in terms of getting any public assistance (and they don't want it, anyway!) . . . that's the type of situation where a few dollars can do a world of good.

  36. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by TammyinWI View Post

    He and the Clintons are friends, that's what.
    I'm so happy for you that you have never had to attend functions and events with people who were competitors or people you had issues with and never had to wear the diplomatic smile for photos etc with people who you detested.

    Some of us have had to do this often in our work lives, or other aspects of our lives.

    I've stood in photo lines and dedication lines and such and worn the obligatory smile since as Master of the Lodge, or a Past Master it was expected I would, particularly since I was just behind a District Deputy Grand Master through whose back I would have happily shoved a sword.

    Just because you have seen pics of DJT and the Clintons grinning and such, gotta remember that the next week or month Trump might need a word of recommendation FROM Bill for some project somewhere that was important to him.

    Not all who grin and laugh in public are friends.
    RULE 1:
    THEY want you DEAD.

    "If there must be trouble, let it be in my day, that my brothers' children (and their parents) may have peace, and have NO KNOWLEDGE of what I have done."

    The BEST in Life:
    To CRUSH your enemies.
    To see them driven before you
    To listen to the lamentations of their women

  37. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jubilee on Earth View Post
    It’ll never get to that point. Trump has balls, but they aren’t that big.
    JE,

    You have personal hands on info concerning President Trump's balls????

    Texican....

  38. #38

    The progressives and Dems will cave

    Because they have the most to lose.

    The longer the shutdown carrys on the less believable MSNBC CNN and the rest of the Fake News Cabal looks when normal people see little real difference.

    And not sure how the middle class cares about freeloaders getting less free stuff.

    I give it 7-10 days. Border funding will magically happen because Trump might really not care that Washington Post doesnt like him.

  39. #39
    Well, the stupid ones within the population voted for change again and have now got it.

    According to David Wilkerson, there will be a six month shut down with the banks. Nothing like a foretaste.

  40. #40
    The workers AREN'T WORKING during the shutdown. Yet they will collect pay for the time they didn't work when the shutdown ends. What's wrong with this picture ?

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