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ECON "Something Biblical Is Approaching" - Here Are The Scenarios Of The Collapse
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  1. #1
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    18 "Something Biblical Is Approaching" - Here Are The Scenarios Of The Collapse

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...rly-unprepared

    This looks like something Dr. Funcool would love! JP


    "Something Biblical Is Approaching" - Here Are The Scenarios Of The Collapse
    Submitted by Tuomas Malinen of GNSEconomics, Fri, 01/11/2019 - 13:44


    2019 has started more calmly after a very volatile year-end in the markets. Focus has been on the trade deal between China and the US and the words of the central bankers, most notably those of Jay Powell. However, this is all just a distraction, a side-show. The market volatility was only the first sign of an approaching global economic crisis, as we warned in December 2017.

    As the recent PMI figures across the globe show, a global downturn has started and the world is utterly unprepared for it. The global imbalances that have been growing for years cannot lead to anything else than a global crisis . However, there are different paths the crisis could take.

    Here, we present three scenarios that the global economy is likely to follow, when the global downturn morphs into something much more sinister.

    We’ll start with the most likely scenario: Global Depression.

    Scenario I: Global Depression
    In a depression, everything that has been driven the economic expansion goes into reverse. Asset markets experience severe contraction (in excess of 50 percent), credit becomes restricted, corporations and households de-lever fiercely, and global trade flows stall (for more details see Q-review 2/2018). GDP falls dramatically, between 10 to 25 percent. Unemployment skyrockets. The standard means of stimulus by central banks and governments are exhausted without any notable improvement in the economic environment.

    The implosion of the current asset bubble will start a relentless unwinding of leverage and risk in the global financial system. Because major central banks are still “all-in” with rates pinned at or near historic lows, and balance sheets bloated to extreme levels, their ability to respond will be highly restricted. Governments are also highly-indebted, and when interest rates rise, some sovereigns are likely to default, aggravating the global banking crisis, which will probably be in motion already. Combined with the zombified global business sector and a hard landing in China, these factors will lead the world economy into a depression. However, a possibility of something even more ominous is lurking in the background.

    Scenario II: Systemic Meltdown
    Systemic crisis would mean that the global financial melts down due to an existential deficit of trust between counterparties within the system. Before 2008, a systemic meltdown was mostly a theoretical construct. However, in mid-October in 2008, global leaders were faced with the possibility that banks would not open on Monday. The interbank markets had frozen, because no one knew the amount of the losses banks carried on their books. The global financial system was grinding to a halt. Politicians and central bankers saved the day by guaranteeing bank deposits and by providing capital and extraordinary guarantees to keep the important financial institutions standing and credit flowing.

    Now the problem is that many of these measures are already in play and when the next crisis hits, the solvency of governments and central banks will also be in question. This creates a perilous situation because, for example, the shares of the global systemically important banks, G-SIBs, have been falling since the beginning of last year, which was also the time when the balance sheet normalization (QT) program of the Fed kicked into full gear. This is no coincidence and it implies that troubles are, once again, brewing in the banking sector.

    Because a crash in the asset values would affect the collateral of banks and because global depression would lead to a massive increase in loan losses, the already-impaired banking sector could, again, face collapse. However, this time around, there is very little authorities can do to stem the panic. These factors make the systemic meltdown an ominously-likely scenario.

    Systemic meltdown would mean that all banking actions, distribution of money, loans, swaps, banking services, etc., through the banking sector would stop. Credit cards would cease to function, ATMs would not give out money and loans could not be originated or rolled-over. Following the likely collapse of global trade, the world economy would also collapse. This would imply that the global GDP would experience a harrowing fall of 20 to 40 percent. Modern societies would cease to exist in their current form.

    Scenario III: The fairy tale
    Could this all be averted somehow? We’ve been pondering this for two years now, and our resounding answer is no. The leverage in the system usually results in a crash at some point, and asset bubbles very rarely deflate in a controlled manner. However, CBs can probably still postpone the inevitable, if they could re-start QE programs or find some other way to push artificial central bank liquidity into the financial markets.

    To soften the eventual blow, and as an extremely desperate measure, central banks could, at least in theory, engage in a “QE-squared”. In it, major central banks would buy a hefty chunk of global risk assets, estimated to total $400 trillion. This would mean that the balance sheet of major CBs would need to expand at least five-fold from the current level of approximately $20 trillion. To cover the crippling losses to their collective balance sheets that these purchases would be likely to inflict, they would need to use their money-printing ability to paper them over.

    Central banks earn seigniorage-revenue from all the money they create. This is the difference between the nominal value and the production costs of the money. Because production costs of digital entries are very close to zero, the seigniorage revenue CBs receive from each entry is close to 1-to-1. Still, this would mean that they would need to create new money in the range of tens of trillions of US dollars. By comparison, in 2017, the global nominal GDP of the world was approximately $75 trillion.

    To distribute such incomprehensible sums of new money, central banks would need to give it directly to consumers and governments. Even in normal circumstances, the production side of the economy would be unlikely to be able to respond to such a massive increase in (artificially created) demand, and this time there would have been wide-spread corporate bankruptcies driven by global depression. A hyper-inflation would be likely to follow.

    There’s also the alternative that CBs would make a complete U-turn and continue to backstop market losses. This would be the “way of Japan”, where the BoJ already owns over 40% of the sovereign bond universe. It would eventually mean the effective nationalization of capital markets which would continue to function in name only.

    We have no historical experience with what the expropriation of modern capital markets would cause. However, it would be unlikely to be anything good as capital markets have been around for several centuries, and they are extremely important in allocating financial capital efficiently. If central banks take a permanent active role in the capital markets, it would lead to financial market socialism. It would be likely to bring similar horrors as regular socialism in the form of lost incentives (breaking down of the risk-reward relationship) and inflated asset values. It is unlikely that global central bankers would be willing, or that they would be allowed, to do so.

    The endgame nears
    The global balance sheet of central banks turned in August 2018. This marks the start of global QT and thus the end of the most reckless monetary policy experiment in history.

    When this is combined with the slow-down in China, the engine of the world economy since 2008, we have finally entered the endgame of at the current business cycle. The desperate measures of central bankers and China enacted after the financial crisis have pushed the global debt and financial alchemy to never-seen heights. The global financial system has become rigged with leverage, moral hazard and regulatory failures to a point where a “purge” has become all-but-impossible to avoid. This is the end.

    Fortunately, even depressions and systemic crises have the tendency to bottom-out and recover. This is driven by resiliency. Even when faced by cataclysmic economic shock, businesses and people try to move forward, and rebuild their lives. Societies just do not spiral into anarchy and mayhem, even if the system should break down.

    Still, every company, household and government should start to make contingency plans. Something ‘biblical’ is approaching.
    If at first you don't secede, try, try again!

  2. #2
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    BIBLICAL? Really? You promise?

    I can hardly wait …

    The wonder of our time isn’t how angry we are at politics and politicians; it’s how little we’ve done about it. - Fran Porretto
    -http://bastionofliberty.blogspot.com/2016/10/a-wholly-rational-hatred.html

  3. #3
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    Or... events could utterly surprise us all. The wall gets built, China agrees to a sustainable trade agreement, breakthroughs in negotiations in Syria, North Korea, Ukraine, and Britain-EU pave the way for calm and prosperous years for the remaining Trump years.
    ” Watch ye therefore and pray always that ye may be accounted worthy to escape all these things that shall come to pass and to stand before the Son of Man”
    Luke 21:36

    COLLAPSE NOW: avoid the rush

  4. #4
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    And monkeys could fly out of Trump's butt, too
    The wonder of our time isn’t how angry we are at politics and politicians; it’s how little we’ve done about it. - Fran Porretto
    -http://bastionofliberty.blogspot.com/2016/10/a-wholly-rational-hatred.html

  5. #5
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    Doom is always six months away.

  6. #6
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    Yup. Just more Doomer porn.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by jed turtle View Post
    Or... events could utterly surprise us all. The wall gets built, China agrees to a sustainable trade agreement, breakthroughs in negotiations in Syria, North Korea, Ukraine, and Britain-EU pave the way for calm and prosperous years for the remaining Trump years.
    I'm just not seeing the Unicorn and skittles here.
    RULE 1:
    THEY want you DEAD.

    "If there must be trouble, let it be in my day, that my brothers' children (and their parents) may have peace, and have NO KNOWLEDGE of what I have done."

    The BEST in Life:
    To CRUSH your enemies.
    To see them driven before you
    To listen to the lamentations of their women

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Dozdoats View Post
    BIBLICAL? Really? You promise?

    I can hardly wait …

    I thought it would be Prophetic, he just stuck with the banking issues.........I do promise, something Biblcal is in play, and it's a big big deal.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by jed turtle View Post
    Or... events could utterly surprise us all. The wall gets built, China agrees to a sustainable trade agreement, breakthroughs in negotiations in Syria, North Korea, Ukraine, and Britain-EU pave the way for calm and prosperous years for the remaining Trump years.
    No no, that's scenario three, the Fairy Tale. It cannot be. There's just no way. It's Smooth Jimmy's Lock of the Week.


  10. #10
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    I LOOOOOVE doomer porn. I see a lot of little things that make me think id better read Revelations a few more times. Im in ACTs rite now, so i will just keep going along till i get there.
    Thus let me live, unseen, unknown; thus unlamented let me die; steal from the world, and not a stone tell where I lie.

    The best place to be in the event of a nuclear explosion is anywhere you can say: "what the hell was that!?!"
    ><>
    Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions.

    Men are NOT interested in what God has to say - but what they would rather believe themselves (shamelessly stolen from INVAR).
    <><
    "...no one can jump into the arms of God.
    Oh, no. You have to fall."



  11. #11
    Ah, the name of the GAME is DEBT and do as your told by the CENTRAL ELITE.

    First step money confiscation meaning bank holidays and inflation.

    Second World War Three.

    Third food shortage.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dennis Olson View Post
    Yup. Just more Doomer porn.
    You said it, boss.
    "Talking is easy and everyone is wise after the event."

    Ernest Joyce

  13. #13
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    Just more Doomer porn.

    Hey, we can't spend all our time on plain old porn - gotta branch out some!
    Last edited by Dozdoats; 01-11-2019 at 04:13 PM.
    The wonder of our time isn’t how angry we are at politics and politicians; it’s how little we’ve done about it. - Fran Porretto
    -http://bastionofliberty.blogspot.com/2016/10/a-wholly-rational-hatred.html

  14. #14
    Well, there is THIS:
    Mecca's Grand Mosque plagued by swarm of locusts.

    A massive swarm of locusts plagued Mecca, Saudi Arabia, earlier this week, prompting authorities at Islam’s holiest site to launch a cleaning operation to remove them.

    Videos posted to social media showed the insects swarming around cleaners and worshipers in the city’s Grand Mosque, where millions of Muslim pilgrims congregate every year.
    http://youtu.be/f6tedU2UZLo

    Exodus 10:4-6
    4 If you refuse to let them go, I will bring locusts into your country tomorrow. 5 They will cover the face of the ground so that it cannot be seen. They will devour what little you have left after the hail, including every tree that is growing in your fields. 6 They will fill your houses and those of all your officials and all the Egyptians—something neither your parents nor your ancestors have ever seen from the day they settled in this land till now.

  15. #15
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    and in other news........

    Sun goes red giant in 56 billion years and vaporizes Earth.

    There's some doom for you........

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dozdoats View Post
    And monkeys could fly out of Trump's butt, too
    D,

    It is possible, but not probable....

    Texican....

  17. #17
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    Yep it's coming tomorrow, next week two months from now, next year, ten years from now yes it is coming, who knows when.............................


    What will I do when it hits ,,,,, live till I die, that's all I can do......................

  18. #18
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    They would have to be HUGE golden monkeys - better than any you have ever seen
    "During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." George Orwell

  19. #19
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    It's the Locusts, gang!

    So, what is wrong with Doom Porn?

    I thought the locusts overwhelming one of the Holiest sites in Islam was a nice touch!
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" is available for sale at the following url
    http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU

  20. #20
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    If you want doomer porn, watch The Stand.


    Sheesh...

  21. #21
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    How many years did Noah warn the people? Just asking. I like part of the last sentence: ' and have a contingency plan.' For me, it will be a large garden, a lot of garden seeds, and a nice supply of ammo.
    Last edited by Tundra Gypsy; 01-11-2019 at 07:54 PM. Reason: added info

  22. #22
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    This scenario is not as exciting or verbally flavorful as flying butt monkeys, but the possibility of a parallel economy based on hard assets could be put into play as well.
    Which is what I think all the shiny new trade agreements are leading up to.
    The big global players-Russia, China, are stockpiling gold like no tomorrow ( no doomerporn puns intended there).
    They are abandoning the FRN.
    Trump is bringing manufacturing back to the US.
    All he truly needs is a parallel banking system, and/or perhaps a parallel currency...

    I'm bettin on that happening.
    "Dark and difficult times lie ahead. Soon we will all face the choice between what is right, and what is easy."
    Dumbledore to Harry Potter, Goblet of Fire.

    Luke 21:36

    A people who no longer recognize sin and evil, are not a people who will recognize tyranny and despotism either. Invar


    “During the course of your life you will find that things are not always fair. You will find that things happen to you that you do not deserve and that are not always warranted. But you have to put your head down and fight, fight, fight. Never, ever, ever give up!”

    - President Donald J. Trump

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dennis Olson View Post
    Yup. Just more Doomer porn.
    I've been hearing this doomer porn since the 1950's, when I had to duck and dive under my desk with my butt up in the air and hands clasps over my head. Here we are 60+ years later, no bomb has landed on me, no depression, never had a famine in this country, never lost money in the stock market, checking account or savings account. Yep, Doomer porn, and they beat goes on.
    People create their own questions because they are afraid to look straight. All you have to do is look straight and see the road, and when you see it, don't sit looking at it - walk. Ayn Rand

  24. #24
    While the fundamentals are undeniably terrible for this nation's longevity, we've been hearing this imminent collapse warning for 13 years now in earnest. Don't get me wrong, things are bad but the collapse may not look like what people expect.

  25. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by PghPanther View Post
    and in other news........

    Sun goes red giant in 56 billion years and vaporizes Earth.

    There's some doom for you........

    Yeah, I read about that in today's Washington Post and New York Times. CNN just did a story on it. They claim that the world is going to end and that women, minorities, and the LGBTXYZ123s will be excessively affected.

  26. #26


    Quote Originally Posted by Dennis Olson View Post

    Yup. Just more Doomer porn.





  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Echo 5 View Post
    While the fundamentals are undeniably terrible for this nation's longevity, we've been hearing this imminent collapse warning for 13 years now in earnest. Don't get me wrong, things are bad but the collapse may not look like what people expect.
    13????

    Since 1979.....
    RULE 1:
    THEY want you DEAD.

    "If there must be trouble, let it be in my day, that my brothers' children (and their parents) may have peace, and have NO KNOWLEDGE of what I have done."

    The BEST in Life:
    To CRUSH your enemies.
    To see them driven before you
    To listen to the lamentations of their women

  28. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walrus Whisperer View Post
    I LOOOOOVE doomer porn. I see a lot of little things that make me think id better read Revelations a few more times. Im in ACTs rite now, so i will just keep going along till i get there.
    Love your sentiment!
    Revelation guarantees doom ahead. Those of us who follow the Lamb need not fear it, but let us never deny it. I paid a nickel and asked Psychiatrist Lucy, "Why don't people on a prep forum such as this enjoy doomer porn?" She told me, "Maybe they're too attached to their currently comfortable life?" I couldn't argue with that.
    "As the rising of the sun is clear to all, so the glory of the Lord fills all his works."

  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by coalcracker View Post
    Love your sentiment!
    Revelation guarantees doom ahead. Those of us who follow the Lamb need not fear it, but let us never deny it. I paid a nickel and asked Psychiatrist Lucy, "Why don't people on a prep forum such as this enjoy doomer porn?" She told me, "Maybe they're too attached to their currently comfortable life?" I couldn't argue with that.
    Someone once asked me, in my younger days, why I wouldn't go to strip clubs. It must not have made sense to them, a young, straight man not going to such a place.

    I said, it's a lot like going to Six Flags with a broken leg. You'll see a lot of very exciting rides, but you're not getting on a single one of them.

    I've changed my mind about the reasons since then, but I think my original explanation wasn't too bad of one. Doomer porn is a lot like a strip club. A very exciting ride that never actually materializes. And if it ever actually did, you'd probably wish it hadn't not long after.

  30. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blacknarwhal View Post
    Someone once asked me, in my younger days, why I wouldn't go to strip clubs. It must not have made sense to them, a young, straight man not going to such a place.

    I said, it's a lot like going to Six Flags with a broken leg. You'll see a lot of very exciting rides, but you're not getting on a single one of them.

    I've changed my mind about the reasons since then, but I think my original explanation wasn't too bad of one. Doomer porn is a lot like a strip club. A very exciting ride that never actually materializes. And if it ever actually did, you'd probably wish it hadn't not long after.
    I hear what you're saying. Makes sense.
    "As the rising of the sun is clear to all, so the glory of the Lord fills all his works."

  31. #31
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    "Something Biblical is Approaching", but an economic collapse isn't the full aspect of it. The book of revelation gives us a clue to the total picture.

  32. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernBreeze View Post
    "Something Biblical is Approaching", but an economic collapse isn't the full aspect of it. The book of revelation gives us a clue to the total picture.
    Absolutely! Read Matthew 24 then Revelations.
    JOHN 3:16 / John 8:32 And ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you FREE.

  33. #33
    I wouldn't waste my time trying to grow a garden for the first couple of years...It will only cause you grief. I would also recommend truly searching your soul about the difference between killing and murder, you will need to have that debate settled in your heart and mind before hand.

  34. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt View Post
    I wouldn't waste my time trying to grow a garden for the first couple of years...It will only cause you grief. I would also recommend truly searching your soul about the difference between killing and murder, you will need to have that debate settled in your heart and mind before hand.
    Once you get that settled, consider how limited your ammo supply is in relationship to how many hordes of hungry zombies will be hunting you down. Learn to set your enemies against each other...
    ” Watch ye therefore and pray always that ye may be accounted worthy to escape all these things that shall come to pass and to stand before the Son of Man”
    Luke 21:36

    COLLAPSE NOW: avoid the rush

  35. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by jed turtle View Post
    Once you get that settled, consider how limited your ammo supply is in relationship to how many hordes of hungry zombies will be hunting you down. Learn to set your enemies against each other...
    learn to shoot well and retrieve assets off the fallen...... I doubt there will be much of a shortage over all, but a solid foundation is a must. Shoot like your from Kentucky, and grandpa accounts for every bullet.

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