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ECON DOW FUTURES DOWN OVER 300 at 10pm EST TONIGHT
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  1. #1
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    DOW FUTURES DOWN OVER 300 at 10pm EST TONIGHT

    -309 at 10:06pm Wednesday evening.

    Just a heads up for those who may be interested.
    Last edited by Ben Sunday; 12-05-2018 at 10:11 PM. Reason: typo in title
    "Talking is easy and everyone is wise after the event."

    Ernest Joyce

  2. #2
    The stock market is nothing more than a casino now. People betting against one another.

    Stocks are way over priced for the companies that they reflect. This started after all the zero interest money was floating around. Now interest rates have gone up and the stock market will go down.
    But not likely to die free

  3. #3
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    The stock market was a place for folks to put money that had a very good chance to make more than the .01% interest rates on savings, etc. Now, it looks like folks are waking up to the fact (?) that QE is over and interest rates are on the rise. Time to get the money out along with some tidy profits. Also, the overheated economy is running out of steam and may arc over and go into a vertical nose dive.

    What's that mean for folks who didn't get into the market 2+ years ago? You don't have any winnings and things are going bust again. Don't worry. Even the "winners" are screwed, but you're going down the tubes first.
    The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the world he didn't exist

    If you have not been to the range in a month, you are under performing.-BB

    You need to work out and get in shape. Your future enemies are.

  4. #4
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    I'm no authority on the subject but I essentially agree that the markets may not be or mean what they used to. Could be that lots of folks are going to take a beating from the buckets of red ink which now seem likely.
    "Talking is easy and everyone is wise after the event."

    Ernest Joyce

  5. #5
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    Now -337 at 12:35am on Thursday.

    All numbers quoted from Bloomberg.
    "Talking is easy and everyone is wise after the event."

    Ernest Joyce

  6. #6
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    JOHN 3:16 / John 8:32 And ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you FREE.

  7. #7
    -395

  8. #8
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    -462!

  9. #9
    Dow futures now at 460 (down)...Nas taking a bath big time.
    The price of oil is dropping as we speak......the estimated floor for oil will be about $35-40 per barrel according to several oil analysts. When it sounds good for the consumer.....in actuality, a drop in the price of oil could
    easily spark a world wide depression/and then a very large war. With a depression, there would be a whole sub-set of problems that would be generated by such a downturn.


    This drop in oil may be only temporary....especially if a major war begins within or near oil producing countries...Russia....Iran...Iraq...Saudi Arabia..ect.

    NOTE: Events have taken control of the world's economic agenda. Trump is only one man...and he faces
    unbelievable head winds.......therefore, for the individual members of this board...I recommend that
    everyone wish for the best...but prepare for the worst. Remember, the world runs on the petro dollar.
    If and when the petro dollar fails, what will replace it?
    Last edited by doctor_fungcool; 12-06-2018 at 05:40 AM.
    Sow the Wind....Reap the Whirlwind

  10. #10
    Remember, as we draw closer to economic catastrophe, the possibility of a world war will become more and more probable.
    Sow the Wind....Reap the Whirlwind

  11. #11
    Watch the bond market closely. Also, be aware (daily) concerning the price fluctuations with the price of oil.
    Remember, if some of these oil producing countries are destroyed due to warfare, the price of petrol will rise
    in tandem with the supply/demand formula.
    Sow the Wind....Reap the Whirlwind

  12. #12
    If the world is playing a card game.......for instance, Texas Holdem.....the game has now changed to 52 pickup.
    As this storm gathers, remember that the rules of this game will change drastically as time progresses. It's up to those who astutely watch the world's economies to discern as best as possible, how the new rules will effect our everyday lives.
    Sow the Wind....Reap the Whirlwind

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by doctor_fungcool View Post
    Remember, as we draw closer to economic catastrophe, the possibility of a world war will become more and more probable.

    Most overseas markets were or are down over 2% last evening and the dow looks to open down around 400 points. Oil is down 3% to almost $51 barrel. Might see a slight drop in interest rates because of this as there is a flight to safety

    The fallout from Huawei arrest is not going to help US/China relations so look for more then words from China over the next couple of days. It will be interesting to see if they go after us or Canada. I'm guessing Canada as the arresting country and to also avoid pushback from Trump.

    I will say that this is not the time to be a foreign high level corp executive in China as they will be looking for a target to mess with.

    tbd

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by twobarkingdogs View Post
    Most overseas markets were or are down over 2% last evening and the dow looks to open down around 400 points. Oil is down 3% to almost $51 barrel. Might see a slight drop in interest rates because of this as there is a flight to safety

    The fallout from Huawei arrest is not going to help US/China relations so look for more then words from China over the next couple of days. It will be interesting to see if they go after us or Canada. I'm guessing Canada as the arresting country and to also avoid pushback from Trump.

    I will say that this is not the time to be a foreign high level corp executive in China as they will be looking for a target to mess with.

    tbd
    IMHO China will retaliate against the U.S.
    We are IMHO in the 1939-1940 historical time frame.
    Sow the Wind....Reap the Whirlwind

  15. #15
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/05/mark...s-get-hit.html
    The market is due to open down about 400.............what happens after that is anyone's guess.
    Sow the Wind....Reap the Whirlwind

  16. #16
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    21

    More fun and games. I don't understand it but it looks important.

    ----------------

    The U.S. Yield Curve Just Inverted. Thatís Huge.

    The move ushers in fresh questions about the Fed and the economy.

    By Brian Chappatta
    December 3, 2018, 12:27 PM EST

    The U.S. Treasury yield curve just inverted for the first time in more than a decade.

    Itís a moment that the worldís biggest bond market has been thinking about for the past 12 months. I wrote around this time last year that Wall Street had come down with a case of flattening fever, with six of the 11 analysts I surveyed saying that the curve from two to 10 years would invert at least briefly by the end of 2019. Thatís not exactly what happened Monday, though that spread did reach the lowest since 2007. Rather, the difference between three- and five-year Treasury yields dropped below zero, marking the first portion of the curve to invert in this cycle.

    The move didnít come out of nowhere. In fact, I wrote a week ago that the spread between short-term Treasury notes was racing toward inversion, and Bloomberg Newsís Katherine Greifeld and Emily Barrett noted the failed break below zero on Friday. Still, I wasnít necessarily expecting this day to come so soon. Rate strategists have long said that being close doesnít cut it when talking about an inverted yield curve and the well-known economic implications that come with it, namely that the spread between short- and long-term Treasury yields has dropped below zero ahead of each of the past seven recessions.

    Itís important to keep in mind the timeline between inversion and economic slowdowns ó itís not instantaneous. The yield curve from three to five years dipped below zero during the last cycle for the first time in August 2005, some 28 months before the recession began. That this is the first portion to flip isnít too surprising, considering how much scrutiny bond traders place on the Federal Reserveís outlook for rate increases. All it means is that the central bank will probably leave interest rates steady, or even cut a bit, in 2022 or 2023. Iíd argue thatís not just possible, but probable, given that weíre already in one of the longest economic expansions in U.S. history.

    Click here for a QuickTake on the yield curve


    The more interesting question might be why this part of the yield curve won the race to inversion, rather than the spread between seven- and 10-year Treasuries, which looked destined to fall below zero earlier this year. One reason could be that the Fedís balance-sheet reduction is putting more pressure on 10-year notes than shorter-dated maturities, which wasnít the case during past periods of inversion. Indeed, policy makers have shown no signs of easing up on this stealth tightening.

    On top of that, the Treasury Department is selling increasing amounts of debt, which disproportionately affects the longest-dated obligations because buyers have to consider the duration risk theyíre absorbing. Remember the curve from five to 30 years, which fell below 20 basis points in July? That spread is about 46 basis points now, driven by stubbornly higher long-bond yields.

    Given the recent pivot from the most important Fed leaders ó Jerome Powell, Richard Clarida and John Williams ó this flirtation with inversion among two-, three- and five-year Treasury notes probably isnít going away. The bond market is fast approaching the point where traders have to ask themselves whether a rate hike now increases the chance of a cut in a few years. Other questions include ďwhat is neutral?Ē and ďcan the Fed engineer a soft landing?Ē To say nothing about whether the assumed relationship between the labor market and inflation expectations is still intact.

    Those are big questions without easy answers, and the first inversion of the U.S. yield curve offers only one clue. The Fed wants to be more data dependent going forward. Odds are the market will do the same.

    There's a chart and a nasty picture at the link.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...ed-that-s-huge
    So when's the Revolution? God or Money? Choose.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by mzkitty View Post

    ----------------

    The U.S. Yield Curve Just Inverted. That’s Huge.
    Yes the yield curve did invert. Notice that the 2 and 3 year rates are higher then the 5 yr rate. Honestly not being a financial guy I just see it as a bond pricing thing but the experts consider it a big deal. I posted the rates for the couple of days in december the treasury market has been opened below. Hopefully the formating is ok enough to read else the link is below.

    IMO if the china thing heats up over the arrest I'd expect a pause to the increase in interest rates or at least the one talked about for this month to be the last.

    Date-------1 mo 2 mo 3 mo 6 mo 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 7 yr 10 yr 20 yr 30 yr
    12/03/18__2.30 2.35 2.38 2.56 2.72 2.83 2.84 2.83 2.90 2.98 3.15 3.27
    12/04/18__2.37 2.42 2.42 2.58 2.71 2.80 2.81 2.79 2.84 2.91 3.05 3.16


    from here
    https://www.treasury.gov/resource-ce...spx?data=yield

    tbd

  18. #18
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    dow down 410 at 0714 est. FUTURESÖ.THE OPEN IS GONNA BE INTERESTING.
    RULE 1:
    THEY want you DEAD.


    Athens, Tenn.
    Remember WHY?

    Word to the wise:

    "All skill is in vain when an Angel pees in the touch-hole of your musket!"

  19. #19
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    Other triggers IMHO that have to be considered include an expectation on the part of the big players, people that make Trump and his pre-POTUS operation look like the corner minimart, of the crapfest about to cut loose in DC is going to be well beyond "business as usual" to the point of a lot of them deciding an extended holiday in New Zealand isn't a bad idea while things get "sorted out". Getting out while the getting is good before the rest of the US's "civil facade" and open decent into "banana republic" mode for the duration.

    When the politics are about to truely become destructive of the system of stability of as big a player as the United States, anyone with any sense (including many who helped facilitate this mess) are going to stampede for the emergency exit and the lifeboats before they get pulled down as well.

    For those of us old enough to remember, this is going to very likely make the Watergate fiasco and the Bill Clinton impeachment attempt look like a fender bender in a parking lot. That's all the reason needed for a lot of those "behind the curtains" to "get out of Dodge" before this, and the likely overseas oportunists make any moves. "Interesting times" indeed.....
    Last edited by Housecarl; 12-06-2018 at 08:13 AM. Reason: Smart phone auto corrwct strikes again....

  20. #20
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    For those interested, put a guess on the market in at the Corkboard! We have a fun time with predictions!!

    Enter here: http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showt...rediction-Game

    Enjoy

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by doctor_fungcool View Post
    Watch the bond market closely. Also, be aware (daily) concerning the price fluctuations with the price of oil.
    Remember, if some of these oil producing countries are destroyed due to warfare, the price of petrol will rise
    in tandem with the supply/demand formula.
    IIRC, a lot of the oil producers needed in the neighborhood of 80 USD per barrel just to keep their own houses in order without dipping into either what they had stashed or maxing out their "black cards".

    The "proxy wars" in the Middle East between Saudi and Iran, as well as the side games, at those levels of oil prices just get forced into being much more serious. Add that to demand issues in the PRC brought on by Xi's "power consolidation" moves as well as a long overdue calling by the US on their "activities" as well as US domestic production changing things and you're in a whole new game, one that has no pretences of even trying to look pretty...

  22. #22
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    Another thought, in light of Apple's CEO in a speech this weekend going "all in" for all intent and purposes with regards to choosing sides in the impending political hurricane about to strike the United States, getting out of tech stocks, where this position is the norm in thinking in the leadership of these companies, is probably the prudent thing to do until things get sorted out....
    Last edited by Housecarl; 12-06-2018 at 09:01 AM. Reason: Smart phone auto corrwct strikes again....

  23. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Housecarl View Post
    IIRC, a lot of the oil producers needed in the neighborhood of 80 USD per barrel just to keep their own houses in order without dipping into either what they had stashed or maxing out their "black cards".

    The "proxy wars" in the Middle East between Saudi and Iran, as well as the side games, at those levels of oil prices just get forced into being much more serious. Add that to demand issues in the PRC brought on by Xi's "power consolidation" moves as well as a long overdue calling by the US on their "activities" as well as US domestic production changing things and you're in a whole new game, one that has no pretences of even trying to look pretty...
    Well said, H.C.

    If we assume that the world economic system is lubricated by the petro dollar and that petro dollar is used as a medium for trade, then any depreciation in the price of oil, especially if it's drastic, will affect the world's economies in many ways.

    Many of the economies that produce oil also buy weapons and weapon systems from first world producers.
    The selling and producing of these weapons creates vast quantities of wealth to those who manufacture these products. Many of the brush fire wars that our planet has endured over the years are fueled by a plentiful supply of war making materials. Hence, we can assume that a deflationary price in oil and for that matter other commodities (produce such as corn and soy) will affect the world's economies in many untoward ways.

    Therefore, the unraveling of the economies of the large industrial nations of the world will be a horrific. The smaller economies will also experience economic dislocations which may be far worse than their richer cousins.

    What's happening now, IMHO, is this.........EMPIRES THAT ARE BUILT ON SAND SELDOM ENDURE......winter is coming......time to put on the thermies.
    Sow the Wind....Reap the Whirlwind

  24. #24
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    Hey. I thought The Donald was supposed to stop this nose bleed.


    FOX5 Las Vegas
    ‏Verified account @FOX5Vegas
    7m7 minutes ago

    #BREAKING: Record imports drive US trade deficit to $55.5 billion in October, highest in a decade. - @AP
    So when's the Revolution? God or Money? Choose.

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by mzkitty View Post
    Hey. I thought The Donald was supposed to stop this nose bleed.


    FOX5 Las Vegas
    ‏Verified account @FOX5Vegas
    7m7 minutes ago

    #BREAKING: Record imports drive US trade deficit to $55.5 billion in October, highest in a decade. - @AP
    Remember Oct was coming up on x-mas so the retailers were importing a lot of crap for you to buy. Plus there is a lag to change the supply chain from one country to another. Next year is the key. Either business leaders support him and source more goods from non-China and/or domestic sources or Trump has failed. IMO he needs to go straight to the american people and call out the Walmarts and other large retailers for selling non-american goods. If folks continue buying imported crap even with the prices rising because of tariffs then there isn't really anything that Trump can do

    tbd

  26. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by mzkitty View Post
    Hey. I thought The Donald was supposed to stop this nose bleed.


    FOX5 Las Vegas
    ‏Verified account @FOX5Vegas
    7m7 minutes ago

    #BREAKING: Record imports drive US trade deficit to $55.5 billion in October, highest in a decade. - @AP
    Hummm....how much of this...Two Barking Dogs covered it better than I could before I dropped my phone....

  27. #27
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    Don’t expect the ‘markets ‘ to act rationally in this environment. The vast majority of trading is computer driven today with players trying to get milliseconds of advantage one over the other. Things can go in the wrong way quickly if the algorithms are tripped. It can unravel so quickly that you can’t possibly react in time.
    What is the lake of fire? What is it's purpose? Is the lake of fire eternal hell? Is there any hope of escape for those cast into this lake?
    http://bible-truths.com/lake1.html

  28. #28
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    And she'll have fun fun fun
    Til her daddy takes the t-bird away
    The wonder of our time isnít how angry we are at politics and politicians; itís how little weíve done about it. - Fran Porretto
    -http://bastionofliberty.blogspot.com/2016/10/a-wholly-rational-hatred.html

  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hfcomms View Post
    Don’t expect the ‘markets ‘ to act rationally in this environment. The vast majority of trading is computer driven today with players trying to get milliseconds of advantage one over the other. Things can go in the wrong way quickly if the algorithms are tripped. It can unravel so quickly that you can’t possibly react in time.
    The problem with the stock market is that it is made up of 2 types of people. Traders and Investors.

    This isn't quite what I mean but as an investor I don't care how much I pay for a stock because after I hold it for 30 years and collect dividends on it for 30 years the extra dollar or 2 I paid will be lost in the noise. But also due to my mindset I want to try to get the best price on whatever I buy be it stocks or the groceries from the store.

    Traders though hate to hold anything for very long. That could be from minutes to weeks but they never plan to actually hold anything. So as a normal person the trading game is almost outside of your hands and it is very hard to make money in it unless you treat it like a full time job. And the funds run by computer algos make it even harder to compete

    tbd

  30. #30
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    BOOM!!

    Opened down 480.

    At this time 9:37 the market is at -392
    The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the world he didn't exist

    If you have not been to the range in a month, you are under performing.-BB

    You need to work out and get in shape. Your future enemies are.

  31. #31
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    Opened down 500. Anything can happen today

  32. #32
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    Better have your seat belts on and wear a hard hat.
    The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the world he didn't exist

    If you have not been to the range in a month, you are under performing.-BB

    You need to work out and get in shape. Your future enemies are.

  33. #33
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    Worth an hour if you are really interested in this stuff-

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEIZkNRnhv8
    Doug Noland - The Global Bubble Has Been Pierced
    McAlvany Financial
    Published on Dec 4, 2018
    Doug Noland - The Global Bubble Has Been Pierced. Stocks still euphoric while bond markets seem worried. In 2018: 70 different asset classes are 90% In the red. The cash poor needing money tap their “house atm” for bills.
    RT 51:34
    The wonder of our time isnít how angry we are at politics and politicians; itís how little weíve done about it. - Fran Porretto
    -http://bastionofliberty.blogspot.com/2016/10/a-wholly-rational-hatred.html

  34. #34
    -370
    Repeal the 15th
    Rewrite the 14th
    We Must Secure the Existance of Our People and a Future for White Children
    Make America Confederate Again
    2020 Is Going To Be A ClusterF*ck

  35. #35
    Don't be surprised of GREEN by days end.
    Repeal the 15th
    Rewrite the 14th
    We Must Secure the Existance of Our People and a Future for White Children
    Make America Confederate Again
    2020 Is Going To Be A ClusterF*ck

  36. #36
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    Oscillating downwards for now though.
    RULE 1:
    THEY want you DEAD.


    Athens, Tenn.
    Remember WHY?

    Word to the wise:

    "All skill is in vain when an Angel pees in the touch-hole of your musket!"

  37. #37
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    -459 at 10:16am EST.
    "Talking is easy and everyone is wise after the event."

    Ernest Joyce

  38. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by NoMoreLibs View Post
    Don't be surprised of GREEN by days end.
    You're the second one who has said that. Pete, in the market prediction game down stairs, actually predicted a positive for the day.
    The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the world he didn't exist

    If you have not been to the range in a month, you are under performing.-BB

    You need to work out and get in shape. Your future enemies are.

  39. #39
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    Don't be surprised of GREEN by days end.

    If the pump monkeys get enough bananas, anything can happen.
    The wonder of our time isnít how angry we are at politics and politicians; itís how little weíve done about it. - Fran Porretto
    -http://bastionofliberty.blogspot.com/2016/10/a-wholly-rational-hatred.html

  40. #40
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