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WEATHER Hurricane Michael, Cat-4 at landfall (10/10)
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  1. #41
    My situation:

    DW's son and daughter-in-law live in upstate New York. We, as most of you know, are in southern Mississippi. The DIL is in hospital administration and both of them flew into New Orleans on Sunday, in order for her to attend a hospital administrators conference. I drove DW there so that she could visit and we had lunch with them. I came back to Mississippi to deal with our animals and she's spending a few days with them (at their nice hotel) until I'm supposed to pick her up on Wednesday. I just pray that the hurricane doesn't change tracks and wind up heading this way. She'd be stuck in NOLA and I'd have no way to get to her (or son & DIL). Most people don't realize that as far as road access goes, New Orleans is essentially an island connected to the outside world by bridges. When hurricanes approach the city, they close the bridges.

    Best regards
    Doc

  2. #42
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    4:30 pm, Key West: We just had a squall go over, lot of rain, gusty wind, power hiccups, but all is well so far.
    "Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats."

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Nov 2017
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    267

    12

    Just got an "Extreme Alert" on our phones informing us we are under hurricane warning and follow local authorities for info. From NWS.

    We didn't get the Presidential Alert so was wondering if we would get the weather alert.

  4. #44
    Join Date
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    North west Florida
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    Looks like the hurricane will hit Panama city and then move over our little farm. We are directly north (40 miles) of Panama city. Got the metal hurricane shutters placed around the house, ready for morning!
    https://www.gofundme.com/loretta-lindseysmallwood
    This Go Fund Me Campaign is for my wife Loretta Lindsey-Smallwood. She has been diagnosed with Liver Cancer awaiting Transplant. This fundraising effort is for life saving medications Post Transplant for one year, not covered by my insurance.

  5. #45
    Just received a warning from my insurance company. It's coming right through here. In South Georgia. 70-110 mile an hour wind. A lot to do tomorrow. The big problem will be my back can't walk to the shed and back.

  6. #46
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    We are supposed to get pounded with rain and 110 mph winds
    Patriot Guard rider
    www.patriotguard.org

  7. #47
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    NH
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    Our weather said that H. Michael will be a Cat 3 at landfall. Looks like it will come on close to Panama City. Be safe, people. This one sure is ramping up fast. At least it's not supposed to stall.
    Happy is the Nation whose God is the Lord. -Psalm 33:12

  8. #48
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    South Louisiana near New Orleans by the Mississippi River
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doc1 View Post
    My situation:

    DW's son and daughter-in-law live in upstate New York. We, as most of you know, are in southern Mississippi. The DIL is in hospital administration and both of them flew into New Orleans on Sunday, in order for her to attend a hospital administrators conference. I drove DW there so that she could visit and we had lunch with them. I came back to Mississippi to deal with our animals and she's spending a few days with them (at their nice hotel) until I'm supposed to pick her up on Wednesday. I just pray that the hurricane doesn't change tracks and wind up heading this way. She'd be stuck in NOLA and I'd have no way to get to her (or son & DIL). Most people don't realize that as far as road access goes, New Orleans is essentially an island connected to the outside world by bridges. When hurricanes approach the city, they close the bridges.

    Best regards
    Doc
    You got the "New Orleans is an island" all right. I think Mississippi and Louisiana will be ok for you to come to pick them up though.

    I'd say come and meet up but we're headed out of town on Wednesday to Rockford, IL. This is the first time we've ever evacuated from a Gulf storm but not really needing to evacuate!!!

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by packyderms_wife View Post
    And put it into everyone's backyard when the rains start.
    Red tide cannot survive in fresh water.

  10. #50
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    The gas stations in town were a freak show today! Why do people wait so late to prepare?
    Patriot Guard rider
    www.patriotguard.org

  11. #51
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    Here is the latest video from tropical tidbits

    Runtime 8 minutes

    https://youtu.be/YCEYaZOA6-I

  12. #52
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    The FV3-GFS model which has been preforming very well this year has landfall near Destin FL. It has timing between 4pm and 9pm Wednesday. At a pressure around 950mb

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...18100818&fh=42

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Warm Wisconsin View Post
    The FV3-GFS model which has been preforming very well this year has landfall near Destin FL. It has timing between 4pm and 9pm Wednesday. At a pressure around 950mb

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...18100818&fh=42
    That is a cool website!
    Recently a friend told me I am delusional, I almost fell off my Unicorn!

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by pauldingbabe View Post
    That is a cool website!
    It’s one of the best hurricane model websites. He has very technical daily updates too. Not like some of the other “famous” weather guys who explain their “superior” forecast because they are superior. He gives you great information and let’s you make up your mind.

  15. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by Firebird View Post
    The gas stations in town were a freak show today! Why do people wait so late to prepare?
    It's not "late". People buy gas every day, but now people are buying extra and topping off all their vehicles. It's not good to buy it too far ahead of time for anything other than a vehicle.

  16. #56
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    I’m wondering if some additional rapid intensification happens today if we wouldn’t see this storm slow down a bit.

    NHC has landfall at 1pm tomorrow, but some of the models are slowing down a bit. Like a 9-11pm landfall. Those extra 8-10 hours could allow for some additional intensification time. Yesterday they were saying Cat 2 and maybe a weak Cat 3 on landfall. I’m thinking we might see a strong Cat 3 with a wider than expected wind field.

    Edit: If it does slow down it would also bring the landfall east

  17. #57
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    Looks like they expect some buildup when it gets back near water at the Carolinas.




    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

    Member: Nowski Brigade

    Deplorable


  18. #58
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    This will be one of the best radar floater links for this storm. It will update just by refreshing the page.

    https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/...dar_flanim.gif

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Warm Wisconsin View Post
    This will be one of the best radar floater links for this storm. It will update just by refreshing the page.

    https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/...dar_flanim.gif
    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

    Member: Nowski Brigade

    Deplorable


  20. #60
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    One of the first runs on the 12z is the HRRR

    It has the storm looking a little disorganized till right before landfall. However it shifted the track east slightly. We will have to see what the ICON, FV3, GFS and Euro look like over the next couple of hours.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...18100912&fh=17

  21. #61
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    10:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 9
    Location: 25.0°N 86.2°W
    Moving: N at 12 mph
    Min pressure: 965 mb
    Max sustained: 110 mph

  22. #62
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    Here is the link to the 12z ICON model run. It is only at 12 hours as I typed this. It should add 3 additional hours to its forecast every 6-7 minutes. You can just refresh the page to get the additional frames. It also appears to be tracking east verses the overnight model runs. If I was near Carrabelle FL or slightly east I would be paying very close attention to this potential change.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...18100912&fh=12



    Update- It didn’t move east now that we can see the additional frames. The official track actually moved west by a few miles
    Last edited by Warm Wisconsin; 10-09-2018 at 10:06 AM.

  23. #63
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    Stations are crazy, roads are jammed with evacuees, stores are cleaned out and people are nuts now. I'm prepped, ready and staying put.
    Patriot Guard rider
    www.patriotguard.org

  24. #64
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    S.E. Texas U.S.A.
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    2,357
    Hope it goes well for you Firebird. It's the big trees that'll get you. A Cat 3 will lay a bunch of trees down. Rita was a Cat 3 when it hit a little East of my place. I'm 35 miles inland. All the trees that fell, were laying in a Northeast to Southwest orientation. I was at our Hunting Lease, 100 miles North of here, and almost got taken out by a pine tree that just missed my camper trailer. Had to be cut out by my friends with a chain saw. It was that close.

  25. #65
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    This storm is getting its act together in the last 1.5 hours. We should see it deepen this afternoon but especially this evening

    Visible

    https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE...d=03&length=72

    IR

    https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE...d=11&length=72

  26. #66
    Our daughter just went grocery shopping in Gainesville, and the store had plenty of food and water left.

  27. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Deere Girl View Post
    Our daughter just went grocery shopping in Gainesville, and the store had plenty of food and water left.
    Gainesville FL? Or Alabama?

    Either way that isn’t terribly surprising. Both should have minimal impacts.

  28. #68
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    Two of the pro meds I follow the most have increased their forecast chances of this going Cat 4 at landfall

    One from 10% yesterday to 60% today

    Second from 20% to 80%

  29. #69
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    Weather in N. Ga has been rainy/windy with pockets of sun all day long. I guess we will be getting it Thursday.
    "Dark and difficult times lie ahead. Soon we will all face the choice between what is right, and what is easy."
    Dumbledore to Harry Potter, Goblet of Fire.

    Luke 21:36

    A people who no longer recognize sin and evil, are not a people who will recognize tyranny and despotism either. Invar

  30. #70
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    The eyewall is now closed

    It has been intensifying all day and only happening faster now.

    I am shocked at how little coverage this storm is getting. I hope this hurricane doesn’t catch people off guard.

    Storm surge is already coming up in places. I believe they will change to storm surge forecast to 9-13 feet late this evening.

  31. #71
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    Len Cannon
    ‏Verified account @lencannonKHOU
    3m3 minutes ago

    Pray for the Florida panhandle. #hurricanemicheal is now a category 3 storm. Winds of 120mph. I have family hunkering down there.



    Whack_E...🏌🏻*♀️⚾️
    ‏ @eGolf63
    3m3 minutes ago

    My brother has evacuated #HurricaneMicheal


    Daily Express
    ‏Verified account @Daily_Express
    3m3 minutes ago

    Hurricane Michael: Florida braced for impact TONIGHT - 110MPH winds to BATTER coast #hurricanemicheal #hurricane #Florida #NOAA #NHC
    Attached Images
    So when's the Revolution? God or Money? Choose.

  32. #72
    I don't know what part of S Georgia your'e in, but it looks like it's going to walk around Thomasville (which is FEMA region 4 HQ-wonder how THEY are preparing for it), clobber Donaldsonville, walk straight up highway 300 and drown Albany (Al-bany to the locals then go up lake Blackshear, hit Cordele , walk up to Macon and keep moving NE to Dublin, Milledgeville and Sylvania before it hits South Carolina.

    Prayers said for all my fellow Georgians!

    Quote Originally Posted by KenGin31 View Post
    Just received a warning from my insurance company. It's coming right through here. In South Georgia. 70-110 mile an hour wind. A lot to do tomorrow. The big problem will be my back can't walk to the shed and back.

  33. #73
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    Strategic Sentinel
    ‏Verified account @StratSentinel
    4m4 minutes ago

    #HurricaneMicheal now a Catagory 3 storm expected to make landfall sometime on Wednesday. #Florida has issued evacuation orders for communities along the coast in the Panhandle. 2,000 national guard activated. Military aircraft currently being evacuated from several bases.


    Jenny Staletovich
    ‏Verified account @jenstaletovich
    1m1 minute ago

    Jenny Staletovich Retweeted Miami Herald

    #hurricanemicheal reaches dangerous Cat 3 status. Water along the Gulf is already up to 2 feet above normal in places, with the storm still 300 miles away.
    So when's the Revolution? God or Money? Choose.

  34. #74
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    SECOORA
    ‏ @secoora
    32s32 seconds ago

    Surf is picking up due to #hurricanemicheal. Pictured is Bradenton Beach in Florida. View the live camera data here:
    https://secoora.org/webcat/
    Attached Images
    So when's the Revolution? God or Money? Choose.

  35. #75
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    The latest recon plane is showing pressure of 955/954. That means this storm is dropping 2-4 mb an hour right now.

    The latest EURO had the pressure at 934 mb at landfall.

    The NE quadrant is putting up hot towers of 80c which is almost unheard this far north.

    This storm makes me very nervous. I have been tracking hurricanes for 25 years and only two or three other storms scared me this much near landfall.

  36. #76
    Join Date
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    https://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwaca...c528e455aba41d

    Message:
    NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-NC125AC1E26250.FlashFloodWatch.125AC20D2D00NC.RNKF FARNK.9ad1094e5102178fdec528e455aba41d from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
    Sent:
    15:56 EDT on 10-09-2018
    Effective:
    14:00 EDT on 10-10-2018
    Expires:
    20:00 EDT on 10-11-2018
    Event:
    Flash Flood Watch
    Alert:
    ...Heavy rain and Flash flooding Possible Wednesday afternoon
    through Thursday night as Michael passes...

    .As Michael approaches from the south on Wednesday afternoon, an
    increasing southeasterly flow of moisture will increase the
    potential for heavy rains. The upslope flow will enhance rainfall
    along the southern Blue Ridge ahead of the main area of rain. The
    main area of heavy rain associated with Michael will spread
    northeast into the region late Wednesday night into Thursday
    night. The threat for heavy rain and flash flooding will be
    highest Thursday into Thursday evening. The storm will move past
    quickly, ending the threat from the southwest Thursday evening
    into Thursday night.

    ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
    THURSDAY EVENING...
    The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has issued a

    * Flash Flood Watch for a portion of northwest North Carolina,
    including the following areas, Alleghany NC, Ashe, Watauga,
    and Wilkes.

    * From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening

    * Heavy rain associated with a southeast flow of moisture ahead of
    Michael is expected to develop as early as Wednesday afternoon.
    As much as 2 to 4 inches of rain could fall across the northwest
    mountains of North Carolina as the storm passes, with higher
    amounts possible along the Blue Ridge.

    * Dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding could develop
    across this area, especially near the Blue Ridge.

    * PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
    to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
    Remember...TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN!
    You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
    should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
    &&
    Instructions:

    Target Area:
    Alleghany
    Ashe
    Watauga
    Wilkes
    Forecast Office:
    NWS Blacksburg (Southwest Virginia)
    The wonder of our time isn’t how angry we are at politics and politicians; it’s how little we’ve done about it. - Fran Porretto
    -http://bastionofliberty.blogspot.com/2016/10/a-wholly-rational-hatred.html

  37. #77
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    Teresa Jean Richardson6️⃣6️⃣6️⃣
    ‏ @CrochetGeek
    56s57 seconds ago

    We are getting a torrential down pour right now, off a band of Hurricane Michael! Raining very hard here in the FEMA SWAMP, Savannah Georgia! #hurricanemicheal


    Well, at least Tallahassee has some hills, if you're desperate:

    Jaspeylove
    ‏ @jaspeylove
    59s60 seconds ago

    So, Michael is a 3 now and still in the gulf... hang on Tallahassee. Time to get out, if you haven’t already. #hurricanemicheal


    sean wells
    ‏ @scdub3
    1m1 minute ago

    @Kentuckyweather @BillMeck @TGweather 4:30 pm Destin update. Ocean getting rougher by the hour. Winds picking up and clouds starting to take over. #hurricanemicheal #HurricaneParty


    DianneSpiritlight
    ‏ @dpfrazier22
    2m2 minutes ago

    Pet Owners Please evacuate with your pets🙏 Do not leave them behind to die #hurricanemicheal
    Attached Images
    So when's the Revolution? God or Money? Choose.

  38. #78
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
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    000
    WTNT44 KNHC 092055
    TCDAT4

    Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 13
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
    400 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

    The eye of Michael became very distinct in both visible and
    infrared satellite pictures early this afternoon, but has been a
    little more cloud filled since that time. Very deep convection has
    continue to develop over the southeastern and eastern portion of
    the eyewall and rotate around the north and west sides. An Air
    Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak 700-mb
    flight-level wind of 109 kt in the northeast eyewall as it exited
    the storm just prior to 1800 UTC, and another Air Force Hurricane
    Hunter very recently made its first pass through the eye and
    reported similar flight-level winds in the southeast quadrant, and a
    minimum pressure of 957 mb, down about 8 mb over the past few hours.
    Based on these observations and Dvorak satellite classifications of
    115 kt and 102 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, the initial
    intensity has been increased to 105 kt for this advisory.

    The environment ahead of Michael is expected to remain conducive
    for additional strengthening during the next 12 to 18 hours. There
    may be some increase in southwesterly shear as the hurricane nears
    the Gulf Coast, but it is not likely to result in a significant
    decrease in intensity before landfall. The global models continue
    to deepen the cyclone over the Gulf, increasing the confidence that
    some additional intensification will occur. The new NHC intensity
    forecast brings Michael up to 110 kt, and is in best agreement with
    the SHIPS and HCCA models. After landfall, significant weakening
    should occur while Michael moves over the southeastern United
    States, but the cyclone is predicted to re-strengthen over the
    western Atlantic due to baroclinic processes after it merges with a
    front and becomes extratropical on Friday.

    Michael is still moving north-northwestward to northward at about
    10 kt. The hurricane should turn due northward this evening, then
    northeastward on Wednesday as a trough moves into the central
    United States. Michael should become embedded within the westerlies
    in 48 to 72 hours, and then accelerate northeastward to east-
    northeastward over the western and central-north Atlantic over
    the weekend. There is not much spread in the dynamical model
    guidance, and little change was required to the official forecast.
    Although the NHC forecast brings the center onshore Wednesday
    afternoon, conditions will deteriorate along the northeastern
    Gulf Coast tonight.

    Tropical storm watches and warnings have been expanded northward
    along the U.S. East Coast from northeastern Florida to North
    Carolina. Non-tropical watches, warnings, and advisories will be
    issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards north of Duck, North
    Carolina, as Michael is expected to be post-tropical when it affects
    those areas.

    Key Messages:

    1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
    coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where
    a storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is
    expected between Mexico Beach and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 13 feet
    of inundation is possible. Water levels will rise well in advance of
    the center of Michael, and residents within the storm surge warning
    area should finish preparations to protect life and property today.

    2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf
    Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds
    associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also
    extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,
    southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.

    3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
    flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
    portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.

    4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the
    southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina,
    and tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for these
    areas.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 09/2100Z 26.0N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
    12H 10/0600Z 27.6N 86.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
    24H 10/1800Z 29.7N 85.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
    36H 11/0600Z 31.8N 84.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
    48H 11/1800Z 33.9N 81.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
    72H 12/1800Z 39.0N 70.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    96H 13/1800Z 45.5N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H 14/1800Z 50.0N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

    $$
    Forecaster Brown

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/092055.shtml
    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

    Member: Nowski Brigade

    Deplorable


  39. #79
    This is headed for a cat 4 not good

  40. #80
    I am shocked at how little coverage this storm is getting. I hope this hurricane doesn’t catch people off guard.
    I'm not sure what you mean about "little coverage".
    It's been on all the newscasts I've seen for several days now.

    Most hurricanes don't get very much coverage before they make landfall, but you can be certain that people living in areas it will affect are well aware it's coming.

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