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WEATHER Hurricane Michael, Cat-4 at landfall (10/10)
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  1. #161
    Quote Originally Posted by Millwright View Post
    145mph

    4-Cats is 157.
    Cat 5 is 157

    Cat 4 is 130-156

  2. #162
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    Mike Bettes
    ‏Verified account @mikebettes

    My crew here in Apalachicola has decided to leave. We feel confident in the building we’re staying in is strong but not confident that US 98 will be in tact and an escape route for us after the hurricane. Better safe than sorry. #Michael
    5:35 AM - 10 Oct 2018


    Space Force Captain Eric Pitsel🚀💥🛸
    ‏ @EricPitsel
    7m7 minutes ago

    Space Force Captain Eric Pitsel
    🚀💥
    🛸 Retweeted Mike Bettes

    Holy crap, when the Weather Channel leaves.. 😯 #HuricaneMichael



    Cayle Thompson, KOMO
    ‏Verified account @CayleThompson
    2m2 minutes ago

    Cayle Thompson, KOMO Retweeted Dan Snyder

    Check out these photos from Apalachicola, FL. Storm surge has arrived, and will get worse. #HuricaneMichael


    Dan Snyder
    ‏Verified account @DanSnyderFOX25
    6m6 minutes ago

    PICS: Look at these screenshots from Fox live shot in Apalachicola, #Florida; Serious flooding and storm surge already happening ahead of #HurricaneMichael landfall; Could be a "catastrophic" storm according to NHC #flwx #LiveDesk
    Attached Images
    So when's the Revolution? God or Money? Choose.

  3. #163
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    According to recon data they have measured Cat 5 flight level winds in the eyewall. Pressure is still dropping and storm still strengthening with four or five hours left before landfall. This is going to be historic and Tyndall AFB is probably going to be wiped off the face of the earth. Afraid a lot of people that failed to evacuate might pay with their lives. God be with them.
    What is the lake of fire? What is it's purpose? Is the lake of fire eternal hell? Is there any hope of escape for those cast into this lake?
    http://bible-truths.com/lake1.html

  4. #164
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    Quote Originally Posted by smith357 View Post
    Cat 5 is 157

    Cat 4 is 130-156
    HEH

    Still sighting in fingers to allow for the coffee drift.
    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

    Member: Nowski Brigade

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  5. #165
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    Dan Snyder
    ‏Verified account @DanSnyderFOX25
    35m35 minutes ago

    LATEST: Bay County, #Florida officials say emergency medical services "now unable to respond to calls" as #HurricaneMichael approaches; Storm now just 80 miles from shore
    #LiveDesk
    Attached Images
    So when's the Revolution? God or Money? Choose.

  6. #166
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    Absolutley incredible satellite presentation from #HurricaneMichael

    Satellite algorithms are almost T 7.5 ... if we didnt have aircraft recon, this would be an open ocean Cat 5 with 150 knot winds ...

    Central pressure measured by aircraft is in the 920s mb ...

    https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/...297148928?s=21

  7. #167
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    Live radar here:

    Texas Storm Chasers Major Hurricane Michael will make landfall near Panama City, FL around 1 PM CT today with a potentially catastrophic storm surge and wind gusts over 150 MPH. Impacts are expected across the Florida Panhandle. Keep track of the storm’s progress with our live radar and wind measurement stream. There is no audio with this video.

    Michael’s Forecast: hurricanes.gov
    Our free HD interactive weather radar: texasstormchasers.com/radar
    https://www.facebook.com/TxStormChas...09137636218634
    People create their own questions because they are afraid to look straight. All you have to do is look straight and see the road, and when you see it, don't sit looking at it - walk. Ayn Rand

  8. #168
    I just pray my silly brother and family have enough sense to get north while the getting is good. Haven't heard from him since early yesterday.

    His wife's mom lives up towards Birmingham, and he could just drive up there of come on up to N.E. Ala and visit with Mom n clan around here. We have plenty of room to put em up easy.

    I swear it is mostly he just can't stand the thought of listening to his big brothers asking him to do something sensible and get out for a few days. Heck they even let the kids out of school.

    His house is about 100 yards from the beach on a peninsula so he will at least load em up and go on up to UWF and they can sit in his office or they do have shelter places at the college.

    All I can do is keep em in my prayers.
    Dosadi

    III


    My family & clan are my country.

  9. #169
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    Alan Branch
    ‏ @Brokenguitar1
    33s34 seconds ago
    Replying to @ColleenConnor7 @Jeff_Piotrowski @StormVisuals

    Yeah no joke, The current eye of Hurricane Michael is headed 22 miles east of Jeff and dead across Tyndall Air Force Base #Flwx #HuricaneMichael



    Nobody_really
    ‏ @Type_ur_name
    2m2 minutes ago
    Replying to @MCVile

    There are services that can help. Although, THIS one kind of snuck up on everyone and exploded into a cat 4.

    FYI people, in a Cat 4 - THERE ISN'T A ROOF for you to stand on so do NOT go into your attics. Find a public/local shelter.

    DON'T FORGET YOUR PETS!!!
    #HuricaneMichael



    SteelReaperJK
    ‏ @SteelReaperJK
    4m4 minutes ago

    926 mb
    926 mb
    926 mb
    926 mb

    Going to be cat 5 at landfall at this rate

    #HuricaneMichael
    So when's the Revolution? God or Money? Choose.

  10. #170
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    Good luck to you all in the path of this thing. It looks like one for the books.

    Just finished cooking breakfast here by lamplight because the power is out since sometime last night from the windy, rainy, beastly front that hit us up north. Have a fire going to heat the house, propane range for making coffee and breakfast, lots of non-electric light and the local radio (battery) to keep up on the news. Internet/wifi will run a long time from the back-up UPS unit. Anticipated this yesterday, so did laundry and dishes, filled the canning kettles with water, the bathtub for flushing and stock tanks for the critters. Biggest concern was for the replacement layer chicks out in the barn under a brooder, but thankfully, they are over 4 weeks old now and have mostly adult-type feathers. They are doing fine as their brooder is covered and will hold the heat. If this lasts too long, I'll give them a jug of hot water to huddle around, but I doubt they will need it.

  11. #171
    Godspeed PC; you're going to need it.
    Repeal the 15th
    Rewrite the 14th
    We Must Secure the Existance of Our People and a Future for White Children
    Make America Confederate Again
    2020 Is Going To Be A ClusterF*ck

  12. #172
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    000
    WTNT64 KNHC 101355
    TCUAT4

    Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
    900 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

    ...9 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
    ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
    AS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC MICHAEL APPROACHES...

    A private weather station in Bald Point, Florida, recently reported
    a sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) and wind gust of 59 mph (95
    km/h). The Apalachicola airport recently reported a wind gust of 58
    mph (93 km/h). A Weatherflow station in St. Andrew Bay recently
    reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (60 km/h) and a gust of 48 mph
    (77 km/h).

    Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida
    Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
    Apalachicola recently reported over 4 feet of inundation above
    ground level.


    SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...29.3N 86.1W
    ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
    ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES

    $$

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../101355.shtml?
    "Property must be sacred or liberty cannot exist"

  13. #173
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    Links to some webcams in this article.

    https://www.statesman.com/news/20181...bcams-to-watch
    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

    Member: Nowski Brigade

    Deplorable


  14. #174
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    Is it just me, or does it seem like with every storm now, the media breathlessly flashes headlines like "unprecedented" and "this has never happened before"?

    Storms like Andrew and the great 1900 storm that destroyed Galveston would beg to differ.

    I agree that this is a rare storm and maybe one for the history books. But people need to have a longer view of history. Just because it hasn't been trending on Twitter in the last week doesn't mean it's unprecedented.

  15. #175
    Quote Originally Posted by WalknTrot View Post
    Good luck to you all in the path of this thing. It looks like one for the books.

    Just finished cooking breakfast here by lamplight because the power is out since sometime last night from the windy, rainy, beastly front that hit us up north. Have a fire going to heat the house, propane range for making coffee and breakfast, lots of non-electric light and the local radio (battery) to keep up on the news. Internet/wifi will run a long time from the back-up UPS unit. Anticipated this yesterday, so did laundry and dishes, filled the canning kettles with water, the bathtub for flushing and stock tanks for the critters. Biggest concern was for the replacement layer chicks out in the barn under a brooder, but thankfully, they are over 4 weeks old now and have mostly adult-type feathers. They are doing fine as their brooder is covered and will hold the heat. If this lasts too long, I'll give them a jug of hot water to huddle around, but I doubt they will need it.
    This is our last nice day in the forecast... your fun weather is heading this way starting tomorrow. We're going to see 80 again today, but highs un the 40s by Friday. Still haven't had a frost yet! We're moving the 3 week old meat bird ch8cks up to a larger pen in the open barn, and then will rake all the leaf piles I got together with the blower into tarps and haul thrm to the layer pen. The gardens are harvested except for the Brussels sprouts, so at least there's no last minute picking frenzy this year.

    Prayers for all in the path of this monster! It's not a good thing that it seems to be intensifying rapidly, especially after the last couple of storms that were hyped to be "killers" fizzled a bit (by comparison with their hype, at least). I'm afraid that sooner or later, complacency and the reaction to the constant cries of "wolf!" are going to cost a lot of lives. I pray this isn't the storm that does it.

    Summerthyme

  16. #176
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Hammer View Post
    Is it just me, or does it seem like with every storm now, the media breathlessly flashes headlines like "unprecedented" and "this has never happened before"?
    Quote Originally Posted by The Hammer View Post

    Storms like Andrew and the great 1900 storm that destroyed Galveston would beg to differ.

    I agree that this is a rare storm and maybe one for the history books. But people need to have a longer view of history. Just because it hasn't been trending on Twitter in the last week doesn't mean it's unprecedented.
    What's more disturbing is people think they can ride it out because they've been fooled too many times by a nothing burger. I'm on the west coast and haven't experienced a hurricane evacuation. I wasn't at home during the spillway busting apart here, but getting 500,000 people out of the way in just 3 hours was enough for everyone here to remember. No one was prepared even where I live which is level with the dam. Friends told me family came to stay with them and they ran out of food the first 3 hours!!! The 2 markets up here price gouged, gas sold out. I don't patronize those markets. So, hype sells, keeps viewers watching. I don't own a TV.
    People create their own questions because they are afraid to look straight. All you have to do is look straight and see the road, and when you see it, don't sit looking at it - walk. Ayn Rand

  17. #177
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    Webcam at Watersound Beach Club, Santa Rosa Beach...

    http://clubsbyjoe.com/WaterSound_Bea...b/Beach_Camera

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  18. #178
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    Link to the tide / surge levels in Apalachicola, FL

    https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/wa...tml?id=8728690

  19. #179
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    Quote Originally Posted by Millwright View Post
    145mph

    5-Cats is 157.
    When I left the hotel this morning I heard the TV say that it is now expected to be a CAT 5 at landfall.

    I hope I misheard.
    Nana to two "little bits", one not-so-little "little bit" and one 6' college bound "little bit"

  20. #180
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    Trying to keep these moved up the active page...




    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

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  21. #181
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lilbitsnana View Post
    When I left the hotel this morning I heard the TV say that it is now expected to be a CAT 5 at landfall.

    I hope I misheard.
    No, Cat 5 is still very much on the table...though not for sure.

  22. #182
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    11:00 Update, snipped.


    ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 16
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
    1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

    Michael is an extremely impressive hurricane in visible and infrared
    satellite imagery this morning. The eye has continued to warm and
    become even more distinct, while remaining embedded within an area
    of very cold cloud tops. Data from NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane
    Hunter aircraft indicate that the pressure has continued to fall
    this morning and is now around 928 mb. Flight-level, SFMR, and NWS
    WSR-88D Doppler wind data all support an intensity of 125 kt. The
    hurricane only has a few hours left over water during which
    additional intensification is possible. Recent radar imagery
    suggest that an outer eyewall may be trying to form, and this could
    slow or halt the intensification process. Although steady weakening
    is predicted once the hurricane moves inland, the core of Michael
    will bring hurricane-force winds well inland over the Florida
    Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. As the
    circulation emerges over the western Atlantic, intensification due
    to baroclinic process is expected, and Michael should complete its
    transition to an extratropical low by 48 hours when it is off the
    U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. The system is predicted to remain a
    powerful extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic through at
    least day 4.

    Aircraft and radar fixes show that Michael has made its much
    anticipated north-northeastward turn, and the hurricane is expected
    to make landfall along the coast of the Florida Panhandle early this
    afternoon. Michael should turn northeastward and begin to accelerate
    as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude flow while moving
    across the southeast U.S. through Thursday night. The cyclone is
    forecast to emerge over the western Atlantic on Friday, and move
    rapidly eastward-northeastward across the north Atlantic this
    weekend. The track guidance remains in excellent agreement, and the
    updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory.

    Tropical storm warnings have been extended northward along the U.S.
    East Coast to Duck, North Carolina. Non-tropical watches, warnings,
    and advisories will be issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards
    north of Duck, North Carolina, as Michael is expected to be
    post-tropical when it affects those areas.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../100854.shtml?
    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

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  23. #183
    WMBB TV in Panama City just reported gusts of 175 mph near the eye. As others have noted, this is going to be catastrophic and historic. Prayers up for all in Michael's path.

    Best regards
    Doc

  24. #184
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bardou View Post
    [B]

    What's more disturbing is people think they can ride it out because they've been fooled too many times by a nothing burger. I'm on the west coast and haven't experienced a hurricane evacuation. I wasn't at home during the spillway busting apart here, but getting 500,000 people out of the way in just 3 hours was enough for everyone here to remember. No one was prepared even where I live which is level with the dam. Friends told me family came to stay with them and they ran out of food the first 3 hours!!! The 2 markets up here price gouged, gas sold out. I don't patronize those markets. So, hype sells, keeps viewers watching. I don't own a TV.
    I agree, this is the double edged sword in all this. Hype can save lives if it's the real deal, and work just the opposite if one doesn't quite pan out (weakens or takes a jog away from a big city).

    People who live near the coast just have to be aware this time of year. Big, bad storms can and will threaten. Always have and always will.

  25. #185
    Quote Originally Posted by Doc1 View Post
    WMBB TV in Panama City just reported gusts of 175 mph near the eye.
    Gusts at ~ground level?
    Better to be a warrior in a garden than a gardener in a war.

  26. #186
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    Greg Postel
    ‏Verified account @GregPostel
    26m26 minutes ago

    Latest message from recon sampled 929 mb ... not quite at the circulation center. #HurricaneMichael #flwx #gawx



    Chris Bruin
    ‏Verified account @TWCChrisBruin
    18m18 minutes ago

    Over 20 foot waves battering Panama City Beach. Still have power at our hotel but likely not for long. Still a few hours from landfall. We're LIVE all day on @weatherchannel




    Stu Ostro
    ‏Verified account @StuOstro
    18m18 minutes ago

    928 millibar central pressure in #Michael is 7th lowest in the official historical record for continental U.S. hurricane landfalls
    Nana to two "little bits", one not-so-little "little bit" and one 6' college bound "little bit"

  27. #187
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    Just had a sone drop that recorded a 919.9mb pressure. This beast isn’t weakening yet. That is .1mb below Katrina on landfall

    However true pressure is probably 923

  28. #188
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    Correction to something I said earlier...

    This may not be unprecedented overall, but I'm reading that it is the strongest recorded storm to hit the FL panhandle.

    So there are gonna be a bunch of people who have never seen anything like this...

  29. #189
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    Thank GOD for the Cajun Navy. They will be the first in. You can bet on that. May the LORD protect those in the way of this beast.
    "They wanted to be left alone to face challenges head-on, and to prosper from their own hard work and ingenuity...harsh country tends to produce strong people."-John Erickson

  30. #190
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    Winds now at 150 mph...

    Not much time to get to Cat 5. It may not actually matter...

  31. #191
    Quote Originally Posted by The Hammer View Post
    Winds now at 150 mph...

    Not much time to get to Cat 5. It may not actually matter...
    It's not the speed but the total power and rain load that matters.
    Better to be a warrior in a garden than a gardener in a war.

  32. #192
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    This is what Katrina looked like, at about the same distance from landfall.

    Look at the difference in the eye and overall size & symmetry, compared to Michael (Post #180)

    Katrina was a monster storm.

    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

    Member: Nowski Brigade

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  33. #193
    You know it's serious when Jeff Piotrowski (blue shed guy) is hauling butt down the road and he's pointing to a bunch of vehicles going the opposite direction and he says "those are a bunch of storm chasers driving toward the eye-wall who are about to get a rude awakening". He said there are a lot of inexperienced storm chasers down there who are who are putting themselves into grave danger.
    Last edited by Krayola; 10-10-2018 at 12:41 PM.

  34. #194
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    Dropsonde indicates 919mb. Andrew and Katrina have fallen down a notch on the list

  35. #195
    Is it my imagination or is that monster swinging back towards Mississippi? I have cousins in Biloxi and they would have had no warning really at all, Doc 1 may know?

    My cousins work in the casinos right on the water and lost everything during Katrina; not that I want it to hit Florida either but it looks from the photos that it is suddenly veering to the East but that could be my screen.
    expatriate Californian living in rural Ireland with husband, dogs, horses. garden and many, many cats

  36. #196
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    "Property must be sacred or liberty cannot exist"

  37. #197
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    I don’t think Brett Adair is making a good decision going back to Mexico beach. I’m nervous he is in over his head on this one. He will be lucky to survive this one.

  38. #198
    OK just realized I was looking at a picture of Katrina posted for comparison purposes sorry about that, trying to read to fast on a breaking story.
    expatriate Californian living in rural Ireland with husband, dogs, horses. garden and many, many cats

  39. #199
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    Where is it making land fall right now? What is the wind speed?

  40. #200
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernBreeze View Post
    Where is it making land fall right now? What is the wind speed?
    Looks like the Florida panhandle, just south of about the center of Alabama. Wind speeds reached 150 mph around noon EDT... about an hour ago.

    See post #180 for the latest satellite pics...

    The sat pic in Post #192 is NOT Michael... it's Katrina.


    Summerthyme

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