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WEATHER Hurricane Michael, Cat-4 at landfall (10/10)
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  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by Warm Wisconsin View Post
    The latest recon plane is showing pressure of 955/954. That means this storm is dropping 2-4 mb an hour right now.

    The latest EURO had the pressure at 934 mb at landfall.

    The NE quadrant is putting up hot towers of 80c which is almost unheard this far north.
    Uhmmm, 80 degrees C?? (176* F) 80 K ft tops (that's damn high btw for October)?
    "The Spoor of an ELEPHANT
    is only RELEVANT
    to an ANT
    or a SYCOPHANT"

  2. #82
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    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

    Member: Nowski Brigade

    Deplorable


  3. #83
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    Big pressure drop this pass, extrap of 951mbs

  4. #84
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    Not looking forward to this. Seems like most of our hurricanes hit in Oct. We put our shutters up this morning. If it makes the northeasterly turn we may be alright. If it continues north, we are going to get hammered.
    In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people. Source – The Declaration of Independence

  5. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by fairbanksb View Post
    Not looking forward to this. Seems like most of our hurricanes hit in Oct. We put our shutters up this morning. If it makes the northeasterly turn we may be alright. If it continues north, we are going to get hammered.
    This is a good website to track the eye verses the official track

    http://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?prod...0&animate=true

  6. #86
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    Looks like the eye is gonna form up soon.




    Shows better in IR.

    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

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  7. #87
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    Thanks, cool site.
    In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people. Source – The Declaration of Independence

  8. #88
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    One good thing, is there is a Cold Front coming right behind this storm. Take it from me, it's a lot nicer the have cool nights when the power is out after a hurricane.

    usa_ICast (1).gif

  9. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by Txkstew View Post
    One good thing, is there is a Cold Front coming right behind this storm. Take it from me, it's a lot nicer the have cool nights when the power is out after a hurricane.
    You are so right. A cold front after Wilma in 2005 saved our bacon, well it actually just made life more bearable and it was certainly appreciated.

    This storm is getting worrisome. Stay safe all who are in the storm's path. Thoughts and prayers.
    "Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats."

  10. #90
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    WOW! Look at this storm development in the last hour!

    https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper...rbar=undefined

  11. #91
    My brother is in Altha just west of Tallahassee. I’m very worried about him.
    Last edited by Amberglass; 10-09-2018 at 07:27 PM. Reason: Damn autocorrect

  12. #92
    That image with an actual EYE, is very disturbing; I wasn't sure how to do a screen shot but it really is the stuff of nightmares!
    expatriate Californian living in rural Ireland with husband, dogs, horses. garden and many, many cats

  13. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by Warm Wisconsin View Post
    WOW! Look at this storm development in the last hour!

    https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper...rbar=undefined
    I'm guessing the 11:00 update will call it a possible 4-cats at landfall.

    If it gets a good eyewall formation, that will last for 12-24hr, easily.

    Bad news.

    The last frame (00:17Z) of the IR image in post 86 shows it opening up.
    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

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  14. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by Millwright View Post
    I'm guessing the 11:00 update will call it a possible 4-cats at landfall.

    If it gets a good eyewall formation, that will last for 12-24hr, easily.

    Bad news.

    The last frame (00:17) of the IR image in post 86 shows it opening up.
    Just read on the NHC website that it is forecasted to be close to a 4 at landfall, this was the 7pm update.

    Prayers for all members and their families in the path of this monster.

  15. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by Txkstew View Post
    One good thing, is there is a Cold Front coming right behind this storm. Take it from me, it's a lot nicer the have cool nights when the power is out after a hurricane.

    Attachment 154746
    Supposed to be 55 here Friday night! Ready!
    "America is at that awkward stage, to late to work within the system, but to early to shoot the bastards"-- Claire Wolfe

  16. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by Millwright View Post
    I'm guessing the 11:00 update will call it a possible 4-cats at landfall.

    If it gets a good eyewall formation, that will last for 12-24hr, easily.

    Bad news.

    The last frame (00:17Z) of the IR image in post 86 shows it opening up.
    That and the NOAA recon data coming back right now...It would be hard to believe they don’t declare this a CAT 4

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see this storm at 140-145 mph at the 7am advisory.

    I wish this storm wouldn’t be peaking near landfall.

    I am hoping for an eyewall replacement cycle or unexpected dry air like Florence.

    This has the real potential to be the largest hurricane to hit the panhandle in 100+ years

  17. #97
    Quote Originally Posted by Warm Wisconsin View Post
    That and the NOAA recon data coming back right now...It would be hard to believe they don’t declare this a CAT 4

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see this storm at 140-145 mph at the 7am advisory.

    I wish this storm wouldn’t be peaking near landfall.

    I am hoping for an eyewall replacement cycle or unexpected dry air like Florence.

    This has the real potential to be the largest hurricane to hit the panhandle in 100+ years
    As per persons from another credible board/weather board...there has not been a CAT 4 or higher hurricane to landfall in the Florida panhandle since at least 1851.

  18. #98
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    That complex over the SW Yucatan bears watching too.

    Daylight and open water will feed it well, just can't tell which way it's gonna drift.
    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

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  19. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by Melodi View Post
    That image with an actual EYE, is very disturbing; I wasn't sure how to do a screen shot but it really is the stuff of nightmares!
    My thoughts exactly Melodi! This is one very, very mean storm.
    Psalm 147:11
    The LORD taketh pleasure in them that fear him, in those that hope in his mercy.

  20. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by Millwright View Post
    That complex over the SW Yucatan bears watching too.

    Daylight and open water will feed it well, just can't tell which way it's gonna drift.
    OH Frak! There's another one?
    In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people. Source – The Declaration of Independence

  21. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by somdwatcher View Post
    As per persons from another credible board/weather board...there has not been a CAT 4 or higher hurricane to landfall in the Florida panhandle since at least 1851.
    Well Dennis was almost a Cat 4 in 2005

    There have been 7 Cat 3 or higher hurricanes to hit the panhandle since 1851
    Attached Images

  22. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by fairbanksb View Post
    OH Frak! There's another one?
    It's not anything yet, just caught my eye while watching Michael.

    Look in the bottom left corner of the IR image in post 86.


    You can make a WAG too.
    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

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  23. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by Warm Wisconsin View Post
    That and the NOAA recon data coming back right now...It would be hard to believe they don’t declare this a CAT 4

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see this storm at 140-145 mph at the 7am advisory.

    I wish this storm wouldn’t be peaking near landfall.

    I am hoping for an eyewall replacement cycle or unexpected dry air like Florence.

    This has the real potential to be the largest hurricane to hit the panhandle in 100+ years
    We came very close with Opal in Oct. of 95. It was coming in as a 5 and just before land fall, dry air infiltrated it and it reduced to a 3. Still did a lot of damage.
    In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people. Source – The Declaration of Independence

  24. #104
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    This escalated quickly...

    I'm intrigued to see it may landfall tomorrow afternoon. Seems like SO many hurricanes come ashore overnight...

  25. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Hammer View Post
    This escalated quickly...

    I'm intrigued to see it may landfall tomorrow afternoon. Seems like SO many hurricanes come ashore overnight...
    I know the official forecast is around 4pm but I don’t think it will landfall till near midnight

    There is plenty of models that support my position

  26. #106
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    I'm about 15 miles west of Altha
    https://www.gofundme.com/loretta-lindseysmallwood
    This Go Fund Me Campaign is for my wife Loretta Lindsey-Smallwood. She has been diagnosed with Liver Cancer awaiting Transplant. This fundraising effort is for life saving medications Post Transplant for one year, not covered by my insurance.

  27. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by Amberglass View Post
    My brother is in Altha just west of Tallahassee. I’m very worried about him.
    Altha will catch some heavy weather
    Patriot Guard rider
    www.patriotguard.org

  28. #108
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    I'm see tomorrow is not going to be a good day to go fishing.

  29. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by Publius View Post
    I'm see tomorrow is not going to be a good day to go fishing.
    I pulled up the buoys, there is one about 60ish miles east of the eye.

    It's reporting 17' seas, down from 27' a few hours ago.

    https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=42003


    The 40mi buoy out of Freeport, Tx. 42019 (which got moved to 60mi), is about 5.5 ft seas.

    https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=42019

    You could fish it, but plan on getting beat up and a little wet.
    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

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  30. #110
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    11:00 update, snipped. Full content at link.



    WTNT44 KNHC 100252
    TCDAT4

    Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 14
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
    1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

    Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft this
    afternoon and evening indicate that Michael has been undergoing a
    rapid deepening phase with the pressure having dropped to 947 mb, a
    decrease of 20 mb between 1800Z and 0200Z with most of those
    pressures falls occurring during the past few hours. Michael's eye
    has become more distinct in GOES-16 high-resolution infrared
    satellite imagery, with a solid ring of cloud top temperatures
    colder than -75 deg C surrounding the warming eye. Some cloud tops
    in the eyewall have been as cold as -88C, which is very impressive
    for a Gulf system. The peak 8000-ft flight-level winds measured by
    the NOAA aircraft thus far has been 130 kt and the strongest SFMR
    surface wind speed observed has been 110 kt in the same location as
    the peak flight-level winds. Based on these wind data, along with a
    central pressure of 947 mb, Michael's intensity has been increased
    to 110 kt. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, along
    with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and NHC, support an
    intensity of 115-127 kt. However, those also estimates also would
    support a central pressure of about 935 mb, which the aircraft has
    not measured thus far.

    The initial motion estimate is due north, or 360/10 kt. Michael is
    essentially on the previous advisory track, and there is no
    significant change to the previous track forecast discussion. The
    models have settled in a stable forecast pattern, which calls for
    Michael to remain embedded within deep southerly flow for the next
    24 hours between a substantial ridge to the east and a highly
    amplified mid-latitude trough moving eastward across the western and
    central U.S. and northern Mexico. As a result, the dangerous
    hurricane is expected to move northward to north-northeastward and
    make landfall along the coast of the central panhandle of Florida by
    late Wednesday afternoon. After landfall, increasing southwesterly
    flow ahead of the approaching deep-layer trough is expected to
    accelerate Michael toward the northeast through 48 h, with the
    cyclone moving across the southeastern U.S. late Wednesday and
    Thursday, and emerging over the western Atlantic by early Friday. A
    continued northeastward motion at forward speeds of 30-40 kt is
    forecast at 72-120 h when Michael is expected to be an extratropical
    cyclone. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an update of
    the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed
    consensus models TVCN, TVCX, TCON, and NOAA-HCCA.

    Similar to the previous advisory, the environment ahead of Michael
    is expected to remain conducive for additional strengthening until
    landfall occurs due to SSTs of at least 85 deg F beneath the
    hurricane, combined with decreasing vertical wind shear along with
    the shear vector shifting from current west-northwesterly to a less
    hostile southwesterly component, which will be more along Michael's
    forecast track. As a result, Michael is now explicitly forecast to
    become a category 4 hurricane before landfall occurs.
    After
    landfall, significant weakening is expected while Michael moves over
    the southeastern United States, but the cyclone is forecast to
    re-strengthen over the western Atlantic due to baroclinic forcing
    after it merges with a front and becomes extratropical on Friday.
    The new intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the IVCN,
    HCCA, and FSSE consensus models throughout the 120-h period.

    Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the hurricane
    warning area by Wednesday morning, so all preparations should be
    rushed to completion.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../100252.shtml?
    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

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  31. #111
    I'm here in Florida's armpit - hoping that the cold front will move Michael away from us and that it will weaken a great deal. If you have the inclination please say a prayer for us who are in the "path" - it would be God's grace that will make this hurricane weaken. Thank you.
    The people of the United States are the rightful masters of both Congress and the Courts, not to overthrow the Constitution, but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution. Abraham Lincoln, 1859

  32. #112
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    CAT4...YIKES!

  33. #113
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    Seems like many hurricanes, including Florence just recently, pulled back in intensity upon landfall after being forecast to be Cat 3 or 4.

    It looks like this one just might do it, though. Not much time left. Could be really bad...

  34. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gercarson View Post
    I'm here in Florida's armpit - hoping that the cold front will move Michael away from us and that it will weaken a great deal. If you have the inclination please say a prayer for us who are in the "path" - it would be God's grace that will make this hurricane weaken. Thank you.
    Prayers for those in the path.

  35. #115
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    Companies I do business with near Jacksonville are closed up tomorrow. (Wednesday)

  36. #116
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    Praying for all to be safe.

    Susan

  37. #117
    Quote Originally Posted by Publius View Post
    I'm see tomorrow is not going to be a good day to go fishing.
    That all depends on where you go.

  38. #118
    Quote Originally Posted by The Hammer View Post
    Seems like many hurricanes, including Florence just recently, pulled back in intensity upon landfall after being forecast to be Cat 3 or 4.

    It looks like this one just might do it, though. Not much time left. Could be really bad...
    They all weaken once they are no longer over warm water.
    Florence weakened before it made landfall after reaching Cat 4 while still offshore.
    This one isn't likely to do that as close as it is already and with strengthening still predicted.

  39. #119
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    There are many schools in GA closed Wednesday, some have already announced their closure on Thursday. Grands will go to school in the morning but be released one hour early.

    Cat 4???

  40. #120
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    According to ABC overnight news, it's now a Cat 4 hurricane.

    So when's the Revolution? God or Money? Choose.

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