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WEATHER Hurricane Michael, Cat-4 at landfall (10/10)
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  1. #1
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    Hurricane Michael, Cat-4 at landfall (10/10)

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

    Tropical Weather Outlook Text Tropical Weather Discussion
    ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

    1. Satellite imagery, surface observations, and radar data from Belize
    indicate that an area of low pressure is centered just north of the
    Bay Islands of Honduras. The associated showers and thunderstorms
    show signs of organization, however, the system does not yet have a
    well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to
    become gradually more conducive for further development, and a
    tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the
    northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday
    or Monday while the system moves slowly northward. Interests in the
    Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and the northern coast of the Gulf
    of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during the next
    several days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
    disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains to portions of
    Central America, the Yucatan peninsula, and western Cuba into next
    week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

    Forecaster Beven

  2. #2
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    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

    Member: Nowski Brigade

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  3. #3
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    I am in the middle GA area and the models that I saw last night --2 different ones-- showed us getting hit pretty hard----the only difference in the models was timing and intensity

    I am trying to get all of my outdoor needs complete before Wednesday

  4. #4
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    We do not need this
    Patriot Guard rider
    www.patriotguard.org

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Firebird View Post
    We do not need this
    We don't need this either.

    DH and I are heading out to Illinois with this storm literally at our doorstep to visit my sister. Even though we're buttoning down the hatches beforehand, this does NOT make for a relaxing trip.

  6. #6
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    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

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  7. #7
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    I think this bottom map is Tropical Storm Michael, not Leslie. Leslie is much further north.
    Happy is the Nation whose God is the Lord. -Psalm 33:12

  8. #8
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    Maybe that will clear out the red tide.

  9. #9
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    I got a Tropical Depression Alert message, on my cellphone today! We still can see water standing on top of the ground, near our backyard, from Hurricane Florence. Pray this storm does not get big.
    Attached Images

  10. #10
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    Wednesday.


    sigh.


    the day hubby and I head out to pick up our son from college for his Fall break, from Macon.



    Maybe it will hold off till we can get home....



    At least our other two sons will be safe at home.....
    Be not soon shaken in mind, or be troubled…Let no man deceive you by any means…..
    they received not the love of the truth, that they might be saved….for this cause God shall send them strong delusion, that they should believe a lie….
    Nevertheless we, according to his promise, look for new heavens and a new earth, wherein dwelleth righteousness.


  11. #11
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    Upgraded to Tropical Storm Michael. Might become a Hurricane before landfall near Panama City FLA.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    145554_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.jpg

  12. #12
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    Not a fun day in Playa del Carmen, Mexico on Yucatan. Cozumel Island probably getting hit worse. Here is a webcam view.

    https://www.playadelcarmen.com/information/webcam

  13. #13
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    This thing is getting strong fast. Now they are saying it might be a Cat 2 at landfall near Panama City in 72 hours. No telling what might happen when it gets into the warm Gulf.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/072101.shtml

  14. #14
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    15 Hurricane Michael! Here we go again....

    Supposed to be a Cat2 when it hits. At least this is a fast mover...
    Attached Images
    "America is at that awkward stage, to late to work within the system, but to early to shoot the bastards"-- Claire Wolfe

  15. #15
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    OK. Finally, we have one named after the former First lady.
    "Dark and difficult times lie ahead. Soon we will all face the choice between what is right, and what is easy."
    Dumbledore to Harry Potter, Goblet of Fire.

    Luke 21:36

    A people who no longer recognize sin and evil, are not a people who will recognize tyranny and despotism either. Invar

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal View Post
    OK. Finally, we have one named after the former First lady.


    "America is at that awkward stage, to late to work within the system, but to early to shoot the bastards"-- Claire Wolfe

  17. #17
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    Ga. is going to get smacked with this one. At the least, we are expecting wind and possible tornados. If it comes ashore in Alabama it could come right over us. A little further to the east and it won't be so bad here, that is according to our local weatherman.

  18. #18
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    Looks like this one could dump more water on areas that still haven't recovered from Florence.

    Kathleen
    Behold, these are the mere edges of His ways, and how small a whisper we hear of Him.
    Job 26:14

    wickr ID freeholder45

  19. #19
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    Looks like it will spin up fast.
    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

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  20. #20
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    Florence missed us south of Myrtle, but a church friend in N Myrtle has a horse near the river and had extensive flooding. She sill hasn't gotten into her barn, it's still flooded. The horse was moved inland with 2 horse mates (and a billy goat friend - that tags along on trails like a pup!) but is anxious not being home. It will be 2-4 more weeks before he returns. They had to re seed 500 acres of pasture lands as the floods washed the pasture land out to sea. We need some showers for the grass seed but don't need another tropical storm to flood/wash the progress that has been made in the storm Florence recovery. Please continue to pray for those affected.

  21. #21
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    Threads merged
    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

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  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal View Post
    OK. Finally, we have one named after the former First lady.

    HOGNUTZ ???

  23. #23
    Leslie (the other one on the map) is supposed to hit us towards the end of the week if it continues on its current track, that will make THREE that went directly towards the UK and Ireland (that I know of) without circling North America first...

    That is a big change in the pattern, though of course records don't go back all that far in terms of knowing what goes where and when (as seen from space) there have been periods of severe hurricane type storms in both Ireland and the UK; especially in the 14th century when the Little Ice Age was settling in.

    We included the "Great Wind of Dublin" in one of our novels (as a mention, not directly) which tore off the top of the Cathedral and destroyed part of the city; it was probably one of these direct hurricanes (or a very very strong one that did circle the Atlantic like the one a few years ago that tore up the trees planted by Lois the Fourteenth at Versie a few hundred years back.)
    expatriate Californian living in rural Ireland with husband, dogs, horses. garden and many, many cats

  24. #24
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    Not looking good for us, expected Cat 2 landfall according to what I read this morning. Will top off a few extra items this morning and then we will be as ready as we can be.
    Patriot Guard rider
    www.patriotguard.org

  25. #25
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    Flooding has not subsided from Florence yet...not good news for the Carolina's coasts!

  26. #26
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    I went ahead and filled up with gas as they will be evacuating the oil platforms which could cause a temporary spike in gas prices. Hopefully it won't get bad enough to lose power here. Hubby is on oxygen pretty much all the time now.
    Sherry in GA

    "If you knew who walked beside you at all times, on the path that you have chosen, you could never experience fear or doubt again." -- Wayne Dyer

  27. #27
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    We are catching intermittent heavy rain here in Key West, and we are assuming it is the edges of the outer bands. I can see we are going to have a big heavy band swing across us within a day. Surprisingly enough, we are not under even a tropical storm watch. I say surprisingly because it seems like every time there is a weather event, they love to focus on how we are all going to die in Key West if we don't evacuate. I actually think the reason they flog Key West so hard is that the weather people want to come down to go bar hopping, but that is just my opinion. Anyway, we are on the "dirty side" of the storm but if it stays on the current track, we do not expect a hurricane, just rain and some wind.

    I was telling my husband that I know it sounds bad and it would affect some other members of our family, but I was hoping it would make a sharp right turn and follow the I4 corridor across Florida, just so those people in the Florence area can get a break.

    So stay safe, my friends, if you are in the path of Michael. Thoughts and prayers for you all.
    "Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats."

  28. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ku Commando View Post
    HOGNUTZ ???
    Michael, husband to Barack Obama.....
    "America is at that awkward stage, to late to work within the system, but to early to shoot the bastards"-- Claire Wolfe

  29. #29
    Fox saying it's a 'cane now.
    Repeal the 15th
    Rewrite the 14th
    Molon Labe
    We Must Secure the Existance of Our People and a Future for White Children
    Make America Confederate Again

  30. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Terriannie View Post
    We don't need this either.

    DH and I are heading out to Illinois with this storm literally at our doorstep to visit my sister. Even though we're buttoning down the hatches beforehand, this does NOT make for a relaxing trip.
    It shouldn't affect you very much at all.

  31. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by NoMoreLibs View Post
    Fox saying it's a 'cane now.
    Confirmed by NOAA, see map in post #6.

    Projected to be major storm.
    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

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  32. #32
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    Being in the FL panhandle, and on the immediate Gulf coast, we're watching this storm very closely. We'll be making preparations today in case the track shifts a bit west. Currently under hurricane watch..

  33. #33
    Wonder if the cold front coming down this will affect (weaken) it once it's over land.
    Repeal the 15th
    Rewrite the 14th
    Molon Labe
    We Must Secure the Existance of Our People and a Future for White Children
    Make America Confederate Again

  34. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rabbit View Post
    Maybe that will clear out the red tide.
    And put it into everyone's backyard when the rains start.
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  35. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by NoMoreLibs View Post
    Wonder if the cold front coming down this will affect (weaken) it once it's over land.
    Good question, Sioux City, Iowa is slated to get 12 to 18 inches of snow this coming weekend. If this hurricane comes in how they think it will then there's a good chance that the Des Moines area will get 6 to 8 inches of snow as well. Trees still have their leaves here, which could be disastrous.
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  36. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by packyderms_wife View Post
    Good question, Sioux City, Iowa is slated to get 12 to 18 inches of snow this coming weekend. If this hurricane comes in how they think it will then there's a good chance that the Des Moines area will get 6 to 8 inches of snow as well. Trees still have their leaves here, which could be disastrous.
    Damn. Glad I'm not traveling through there any longer (besides dealing with the Des Moines to Ames drivers....Aye Ca rumba!)
    Repeal the 15th
    Rewrite the 14th
    Molon Labe
    We Must Secure the Existance of Our People and a Future for White Children
    Make America Confederate Again

  37. #37
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    Here is the latest statement from the Monroe County Board of Commissioners, issued around noon EST:

    National Weather Service Update re Hurricane Michael.
    Storm Passing Well West of Florida Keys.

    At 11 am EDT Monday October 8th, the center of Hurricane Michael was located 50 miles south of the western tip of Cuba. Michael is moving toward the north at 7 mph, with sustained winds near 75 mph. Michael is expected to continue moving north, passing well west of the Florida Keys Tuesday morning.

    Tropical Storm Michael was located about 225 miles southwest of the western tip of Cuba. The Depression is moving toward the north around 5 mph, with sustained winds near 35 mph. Michael is expected to move near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula Monday morning and pass well west of the Florida Keys Monday night and Tuesday morning.

    Even passing well west of the Keys, sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph with frequent gusts over 30 mph are expected
    today through Tuesday. Frequent showers and occasional squalls, the potential for brief 45 to 55 mph wind gusts are
    possible. The threat of damaging wind gusts, or isolated tornadoes, remains minimal.
    Attached Images
    "Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats."

  38. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by Sherrynboo View Post
    I went ahead and filled up with gas as they will be evacuating the oil platforms which could cause a temporary spike in gas prices. Hopefully it won't get bad enough to lose power here. Hubby is on oxygen pretty much all the time now.
    Now would be the time to get a generator.

  39. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aly View Post
    Being in the FL panhandle, and on the immediate Gulf coast, we're watching this storm very closely. We'll be making preparations today in case the track shifts a bit west. Currently under hurricane watch..
    Living in Louisiana, Michael could very well have been coming to us, so my heart is in my throat in concern for ya'all.

    I hope all your stores have the supplies you need to top off!!!

  40. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Melodi View Post
    Leslie (the other one on the map) is supposed to hit us towards the end of the week if it continues on its current track, that will make THREE that went directly towards the UK and Ireland (that I know of) without circling North America first...

    That is a big change in the pattern, though of course records don't go back all that far in terms of knowing what goes where and when (as seen from space) there have been periods of severe hurricane type storms in both Ireland and the UK; especially in the 14th century when the Little Ice Age was settling in.

    We included the "Great Wind of Dublin" in one of our novels (as a mention, not directly) which tore off the top of the Cathedral and destroyed part of the city; it was probably one of these direct hurricanes (or a very very strong one that did circle the Atlantic like the one a few years ago that tore up the trees planted by Lois the Fourteenth at Versie a few hundred years back.)
    Lets start another thread on this topic as I have comments I want to add w/o derailing this one about the EU's summer this year and how hot it was and how it affected vineyards and olive groves.
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

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