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'Weather models have flipped the switch': Hurricane season coming to life in the Atlantic
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  1. #1

    18 'Weather models have flipped the switch': Hurricane season coming to life in the Atlantic

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ic/1132669002/
    (fair use applies)

    'Weather models have flipped the switch': Hurricane season coming to life in the Atlantic
    Doyle Rice, USA TODAY
    Published 12:34 p.m. ET Aug. 29, 2018 | Updated 8:44 p.m. ET Aug. 29, 2018

    The sleeping giant may be about to awaken.

    Hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico is forecast to ramp up over the next couple of weeks. "Weather models have flipped the switch on the Atlantic hurricane season and see multiple areas of development possible, starting mainly this weekend," weather.us meteorologist Ryan Maue said.

    One storm could spin up in the Caribbean over the next few days and affect Florida over the Labor Day weekend. Looking further ahead, "there is the potential for two or three tropical features spinning over the Atlantic by the second weekend in September," AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said.

    The next tropical storm or hurricane in the Atlantic basin will be called Florence.

    One of the reasons for the predicted increase in activity is that wind shear, which tends to rip apart developing hurricanes, appears to be decreasing. "There are signs now that wind shear may drop over a significant part of the Atlantic basin over the next couple of weeks," said AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno.

    It's too early to predict exactly where or when any storm might form or whether a storm will affect land areas.

    With the peak of hurricane season close at hand, there are signs that the tropical Atlantic may soon spring to life with the potential for direct impact on the coastal United States in the days ahead: https://t.co/QhcvGMUlltpic.twitter.com/d6Rljc3sox
    — AccuWeather (@breakingweather) August 28, 2018
    "When models start suggesting tropical cyclone development many days in advance in multiple parts of the Atlantic basin, while they might not be right about exactly when and where, it does indicate that the atmosphere is changing and it’s about to get busy overall for September," Weather Channel hurricane expert Rick Knabb said.

    Regardless of what happens this year, 2018 will be hard-pressed to top the calamitous 2017 season, which featured monster hurricanes such as Harvey, Irma and Maria. Overall, 10 hurricanes formed in the Atlantic last year, well above the average of six.

    The prediction for a busy September this year follows an unusually quiet August for the Atlantic. For the first time since 2013, no hurricanes formed in August in the Atlantic basin.

    "A quiet August does not guarantee a quiet Atlantic hurricane season," said Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach. In 1961, he said, no hurricanes formed in August, but four major hurricanes blew up in September.

    This innocuous looking patch of clouds needs to be monitored as it steadily moves northwest, with some chance for development. If you live in the Southeast or along Gulf Coast ... stay updated on the forecast. This is not 10 days out. It's this weekend/early next. #flwx#alwxpic.twitter.com/mIrWP51vis
    — Greg Postel (@GregPostel) August 29, 2018


    September is the peak month for Atlantic hurricanes, recording more hurricanes in that basin than any other month on record, the Weather Channel said.

    The calm start to the Atlantic season is a stark contrast to the wild and woolly Pacific season, where 14 storms have formed, including Hurricane Lane, which drenched Hawaii.

    Two tropical storms, Miriam and Norman, are spinning in the eastern Pacific Ocean, both far from land. Both are forecast to become hurricanes within the next day or so, the National Hurricane Center said.

    Miriam should curve to the north, away from Hawaii, but Norman could have some effect on Hawaii within the next seven to 10 days, Maue said.

    Tropical Storm Norman was just named ...

    Track is westward for next 7-10 days toward Hawaii, but unknown if any impacts, yet

    NHC forecasts near Cat 4 max intensity. Maybe, but Miriam underwhelmed. pic.twitter.com/1IznP4ylcO
    — Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (@RyanMaue) August 29, 2018

  2. #2
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    I heard a weathersnip earlier, said things were kicking up.



    ((shrug))
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  3. #3
    Good, good, good. Wipe out Broward, Dade and Palm Beach counties.
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  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by NoMoreLibs View Post
    Good, good, good. Wipe out Broward, Dade and Palm Beach counties.
    I've read that a Cat 5 hit on Miami is one of the government's really big disaster scenarios, probably at least in part because people are generally so complacent that they refuse to evacuate and instead throw hurricane parties. Considering its location, apparently Miami and its infrastructure aren't built to withstand a major hurricane strike. It's also worth remembering that yesterday was the 13th anniversary of the 2005 Katrina hit on New Orleans.

  5. #5
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    The sleeping giant may be about to awaken.


    And monkeys may come flying out my butt. The entire OP is speculation.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dennis Olson View Post
    The sleeping giant may be about to awaken.


    And monkeys may come flying out my butt. The entire OP is speculation.
    It does seem that way. I would be more concerned if there were several developing at the same time. September is usually a bit busy with October being a bit worse. Until then, I am not too worried.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dennis Olson View Post
    The sleeping giant may be about to awaken.


    And monkeys may come flying out my butt. The entire OP is speculation.
    You Sir, are too funny!

  8. #8
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    I'm not seeing a whole lotta storm seeds.

    Might have to find that Ventusky projection. https://www.ventusky.com/?p=21.3;-64...temperature-2m



    Visible spectrum





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  9. #9
    I am hearing 3 potential storms next week, all firing off the African coast now, but I think going to miss the USA (turn north before getting close to us). Of course it's too far out to know for sure, anything can change.

    Here's the latest from Accuweather.

    https://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...ar-us/70005914
    (fair use applies)

    Tropical threat may develop close to Florida while eastern Atlantic springs to life
    By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
    August 30, 2018, 11:33:14 AM EDT

    With the peak of hurricane season close at hand, the tropical Atlantic is springing to life with the potential for direct impact on the coastal United States in the days ahead.

    People along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts, as well as the Caribbean, have enjoyed an extended period with no great concern for tropical activity during August.

    However, things are beginning change, and that change may escalate during the first couple of weeks of September.

    "There are signs now that wind shear may drop over a significant part of the Atlantic basin over the next couple of weeks," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.



    Wind shear is the increase in wind speed with altitude and over geographical distance. Strong wind shear can prevent a tropical storm from forming or may cause a hurricane to weaken.

    Feature in eastern Atlantic likely to develop first

    "In the short term, there is an area just west of the coast of Africa, that we expect to develop into a substantial tropical system," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.


    This animation taken on Thursday, Aug. 30, 2018, shows the tropical Atlantic. The system near Cabo Verde, located to the far right, is soon expected to become a depression and may become the next tropical storm and hurricane of the season over the the next few days. Meanwhile, a group of showers and storms can be seen over the northern Caribbean islands in the center of the animation. This is the system that may develop near Florida later this weekend or the Gulf of Mexico next week. (NOAA / GOES)

    The Cabo Verde feature is on the verge of becoming a tropical depression and has the potential to become a powerful hurricane.

    Interests on the Cabo Verde islands should closely monitor the situation and be prepared for tropical storm conditions including a period of increasing rainfall, winds and seas over the next few days.



    "This system will pass over the Cabo Verde Islands later Friday, Friday night and early Saturday," Kottlowski said.

    The next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season is Florence.

    Steering winds may direct the Cabo Verde feature toward the middle of the Atlantic over the next week. While this system is not likely to affect North America, it could be steered toward the British Isles and western Europe toward the middle of September.

    Potential for development in western Atlantic to arise

    "During next week, one or more tropical systems may come about, and at least one may be rather close to the U.S.," Kottlowski said.

    An area to watch close to North America is an area of disturbed weather currently moving through the north-central islands in the Caribbean Sea.



    "This feature will bring the Lesser Antilles, as well as Puerto Ricko and Hispaniola showers and gusty winds through Friday," Kottlowski said. "Next, the disturbance move is likely to move across the Bahamas and Straits of Florida during the Labor Day weekend."

    Should the disturbance ramp up quickly to a tropical depression or storm, conditions may become dangerous for bathing and boating along Florida Peninsula waters as the weekend progresses.

    The risk of tropical development will not stop along the Florida east coast, but may increase over the Gulf of Mexico during the first week of September.



    Another system could come about over the western Atlantic later next week as well.
    "There is the potential for two or three tropical features spinning at the same time over the Atlantic basin by the second weekend in September," Kottlowski said.

    While conditions have been quiet for many weeks along the coast of the U.S. and the Caribbean, people should now begin to pay attention to the tropics.

    One or more tropical systems may affect outdoor activities or possibly have a more serious impact on lives and property.

    AccuWeather will continue to provide updates on the tropical activity over the Atlantic and other basins in the coming days.

  10. #10
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    Cabo Verde islands? I thought they were the Cape Verde islands.
    Every Time History Repeats Itself The Price Goes Up.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Dennis Olson View Post
    The sleeping giant may be about to awaken.


    And monkeys may come flying out my butt. The entire OP is speculation.
    Lube up first, it'll be easier.
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  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by NoMoreLibs View Post
    Good, good, good. Wipe out Broward, Dade and Palm Beach counties.
    I have two brothers and an Uncle living in Dade. They would not appreciate that.
    In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people. Source – The Declaration of Independence

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by tanstaafl View Post
    I've read that a Cat 5 hit on Miami is one of the government's really big disaster scenarios, probably at least in part because people are generally so complacent that they refuse to evacuate and instead throw hurricane parties. Considering its location, apparently Miami and its infrastructure aren't built to withstand a major hurricane strike. It's also worth remembering that yesterday was the 13th anniversary of the 2005 Katrina hit on New Orleans.
    I don't know about that. After Hurricane Andrew hit is when all the new building codes were developed to better withstand major hurricanes. Anyone who doesn't evac from a Cat 5 hurricane is tempting fate, IMHO.
    In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people. Source – The Declaration of Independence

  14. #14
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    You may be right. Maybe enough new construction has taken place since 1992 for Miami and its suburbs to just shrug off a direct hit by a Cat 5. But I wouldn't bet on it, from what I've heard about how diligent Miami residents can be in obeying the letter of the law. That is to say, they generally just ignore anything they don't already like. But I've never actually been to Miami, so I'm mostly just guessing.

    This is a bad few days for disaster anniversaries. Yesterday (Wednesday) was the anniversary for Katrina, tomorrow (Friday) is the anniversary of the 1886 7.3 earthquake in Charleston, and Saturday is the anniversary of the 1923 8.3 earthquake/firestorm in Tokyo.

  15. #15
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    Ummm---isn't this the area where hurricanes ALWAYS develop?
    Be not soon shaken in mind, or be troubled…Let no man deceive you by any means…..
    they received not the love of the truth, that they might be saved….for this cause God shall send them strong delusion, that they should believe a lie….
    Nevertheless we, according to his promise, look for new heavens and a new earth, wherein dwelleth righteousness.


  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dennis Olson View Post
    The sleeping giant may be about to awaken.


    And monkeys may come flying out my butt. The entire OP is speculation.
    Dennis---


    all the talk-shows have been able to talk about here recently is making hay out of some politician's statement about "monkeying up" the economy -- calling it racist---because, of course, "monkeys" MUST refer to darkies.


    Well, given that---I got a priceless word-picture from your statement......



    Be not soon shaken in mind, or be troubled…Let no man deceive you by any means…..
    they received not the love of the truth, that they might be saved….for this cause God shall send them strong delusion, that they should believe a lie….
    Nevertheless we, according to his promise, look for new heavens and a new earth, wherein dwelleth righteousness.


  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Heliobas Disciple View Post
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ic/1132669002/
    (fair use applies)

    'Weather models have flipped the switch': Hurricane season coming to life in the Atlantic
    Doyle Rice, USA TODAY
    Published 12:34 p.m. ET Aug. 29, 2018 | Updated 8:44 p.m. ET Aug. 29, 2018

    The sleeping giant may be about to awaken.

    Hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico is forecast to ramp up over the next couple of weeks. "Weather models have flipped the switch on the Atlantic hurricane season and see multiple areas of development possible, starting mainly this weekend," weather.us meteorologist Ryan Maue said.

    One storm could spin up in the Caribbean over the next few days and affect Florida over the Labor Day weekend. Looking further ahead, "there is the potential for two or three tropical features spinning over the Atlantic by the second weekend in September," AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said.

    The next tropical storm or hurricane in the Atlantic basin will be called Florence.
    Quote Originally Posted by Heliobas Disciple View Post
    I am hearing 3 potential storms next week, all firing off the African coast now, but I think going to miss the USA (turn north before getting close to us). Of course it's too far out to know for sure, anything can change.
    Accuweather knows their stuff! We've already had Gordon. Now Francis is heading for the east coast. And Helene and Isaac aren't too far behind. Looks like things are indeed picking up. Hopefully this is the end of it and it'll quiet down for the rest of September.



    HD

  18. #18
    I don't see what was silly about the OP, everyone living over here knows the "weather has flipped" which is a less scientific way of saying the weather pattern that held from most of this Summer with the unusual Jet Stream Patterns that kept the UK and Ireland baking in the hot dry weather instead of the usual cool rain or in parts of the UK warm rain and thunderstorms; has finally sifted back to something more "typical" for this time of year

    With the great blocking "high" pressure systems finally moving off; that frees the "usual" Atlantic Storm door to open with "systems" from Africa floating towards the Americas and sometimes back around to hit the Ireland/UK and even Europe.

    That is the more "usual" pattern; if things "flip" again this Winter we are likely to have fewer Atlantic storms (what we normally get which here are wet and cold but seldom snow) to "Icy Cold and dry with snow" coming from the East and North - like we did for a good chunk of last Winter.

    In fact, most of this year has been that sort of "backward" or shall we shall more unusual airflow that moves weather systems away from this side of the Atlantic and tends to stop the formation of tropical storms at the equator.

    That has now changed, or you could say "it has flipped."
    expatriate Californian living in rural Ireland with husband, dogs, horses. garden and many, many cats

  19. #19
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    We are same age AND Products of the Eisenhower JFK School System
    We Got the best education that could be provided

    I remember 5th grade science, Mr Moser, explaining the Gulf Stream protected Britain and the crash of the cold Labrador Straights and That the warm Gulf Stream gave NC the shipwrecks at Davey Jones Locker and it's pointy Atlantic boundaries

    And The Brazilian Amazon Forest is what drove the warm water Gulf Stream back north

    Now recall that CIA Globalist Bush 1 and friends bought the Amazon for his own Personal plantation to control all foods productions and his family controls it all

    But to create the super agri commercial plantations, millions of acres of jungle trees have been destroyed into farm land which is very disruptive of the Gulf Stream which is what is realky impacting Britains weather

    I believe at one point last year that the Gulf Stream actually quit circulating for a period of time

    Trump won 2626 counties
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    In 2018, all 435 U.S. House Members and 34 U.S. Senators are up for reelection.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by NC Susan View Post
    We are same age AND Products of the Eisenhower JFK School System
    We Got the best education that could be provided

    I remember 5th grade science, Mr Moser, explaining the Gulf Stream protected Britain and the crash of the cold Labrador Straights and That the warm Gulf Stream gave NC the shipwrecks at Davey Jones Locker and it's pointy Atlantic boundaries

    And The Brazilian Amazon Forest is what drove the warm water Gulf Stream back north

    Now recall that CIA Globalist Bush 1 and friends bought the Amazon for his own Personal plantation to control all foods productions and his family controls it all

    But to create the super agri commercial plantations, millions of acres of jungle trees have been destroyed into farm land which is very disruptive of the Gulf Stream which is what is realky impacting Britains weather

    I believe at one point last year that the Gulf Stream actually quit circulating for a period of time
    Not to mention that climate science KNOWS that the Gulf Stream waxes and wanes; the whole North Atlantic Oscillation (of which the Gulf Stream is a part) moves North or South over time; it was still there during the Ice Age just much further South; some years it is strong and some years very weak.

    The Amazon plays a role but with no woo at all I also have to wonder what the BP Oil Spill and later saturation with Corexit MIGHT have done to the Gulf Stream flow?

    I am not saying that it did, but it could have and that really is a total unknown with no historical information to use as a guide; just computers guessing the same way humans do.
    expatriate Californian living in rural Ireland with husband, dogs, horses. garden and many, many cats

  21. #21
    An update on Hurricane Isaac. Unlike the OP, which was an early warning from meteorologists who do this for a living and was not speculation, this post is all speculation. Because the models aren't consistent, there is no definite path for Isaac. But I thought I'd add this here as an early warning vs on MAIN because this thread is about early warnings, not actual warnings.

    There are different models they use to predict hurricane forecast maps - European, GFS, WRF, CMC and NavGem. All of them say Helene will go into the northern Atlantic and will not threaten US at all. As for Isaac though - the European model, GFS and WRF say Isaac dissipates in the Carribean before it gets close to the USA. However, the NavGem (Navy model) and CMC (Canadian) say it strengthens. NavGem has it turning towards the eastern seaboard and CMC has it headed into the Gulf towards New Orleans. The one thing I distinctly remember is that the CMC predicted Irma would hit SW Florida by Naples/Ft Myers, exactly where it hit, on a model they ran sometime very close to when Irma first left the African coast. It only had that model up for one or two runs. It then changed its model like everyone else and said it would hit the east coast of Florida, which turned out to be wrong. But CMC was the only one which started out prediciting Irma's exact path so I pay attention to the CMC now. FWIW.

    First screengrab is CMC model for Isaac as of Sept 21 2018. Second screengrab is NavGem for Isaac as of Sept 17. This is where both models end. I will keep an eye on them and update here if they remain consistent. When everyone agrees on its path, I'm sure there will be a thread on MAIN. This is for speculation at the moment.

    HD
    Attached Images

  22. #22
    Quick update. Again, THIS IS JUST SPECULATION at this point, but I thought I'd post the latest spaghetti models for Isaac. Most of the models, once again, don't see Isaac as a threat to the US mainland. Apparently neither the NavGem or the CMC are represented here because I don't see any lines going in the directions I posted above and those haven't changed as of the time I looked at the spaghetti models. There is no legend on the page I got this from so I don't know which color line belongs to which model program.

    First pic is 3:00 AM and second pic is 3:00 PM today.
    Attached Images

  23. #23
    Another quick update. NavGem now has Isaac dissipating as do most of the other models. CMC hadn't updated on the site I was using (since my last post on it) until today. It still has it as a storm hitting in the gulf, although now west of New Orleans closer to the TX LA border. Personally I think CMC has it wrong and the others have it right - Isaac isn't going to be a problem for anywhere in CONUS. But we'll see.
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