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WAR TURKEY'S ERDOGAN INVADES NORTHERN SYRIA PART TWO 4-8-2018
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  1. #1
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    TURKEY'S ERDOGAN INVADES NORTHERN SYRIA PART TWO 4-8-2018

    This new thread will be the son of the original one, from January 30th, 2018 called "Syrian Army fires on Advancing Turkish forces." The original thread had nearly 1,700 responses and was hard to deal with.

    So, this particular thread will deal with all issues related to Turkey invading Northern Syria to fight the Kurds. It will also deal with our BAT POOP CRAZY ERDOGAN and all the fun he is spreading around the Middle East. It will also deal with the various players, Iran, Russia, the US, Hezzbollah, the Kurds, Assad Junior as they react to what Erdogan is doing. Erdogan's threats to attack Manjbi, and engage US troops, are kosher.

    Given just how BAT POOP CRAZY ERDOGAN IS, AND HIS DESIRE TO RESTORE THE OTTOMAN EMPIRE, A HUGE LIST OF THINGS CAN BE TALKED ABOUT. These would range from Erdogan's threats to invade Greece, or occupy Cyprus, or invade Iraq, or well the list is nearly endless at this point.

    My first "new post," will be from FARS talking about how Erdogan isn't in as much control of Northern Syria as he claims to be. I mean having a firefight in the center of Afrin a couple of weeks after you conquered it, doesn't inspire much confidence in Turkey's military.

    the link is here

    http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13970119000945

    Sun Apr 08, 2018 3:20
    More Turkish Soldiers, Allied Militants Killed in Clashes with Kurds in Northern Syria


    TEHRAN (FNA)- A number of Turkish troops and Ankara-backed militants were killed and several more were wounded in a fresh round of clashes with the Kurdish fighters in Afrin region in Northwestern Aleppo, a media source said Sunday.

    The Kurdish-language Hawar news reported that the Kurdish militants stormed one of the positions of the Turkish soldiers in the Central part of the town of Afrin, killing an Ankara-backed gunman and wounding two Turkish army soldiers.

    It added that a key position of the Turkish army was destroyed in the Kurdish fighters' attack in the village of Kafr Safreh in Jandaris region, leaving three Turkey-backed gunmen dead and two more wounded.

    The entire Afrin region has been occupied by the Turkish troops and Ankara-backed militants.

    Hawar news reported on Saturday that a main position of the Turkish Army and Ankara-backed militants in the Central part of the occupied town of Afrin came under the Kurdish militias' attack.

    The Kurdish news agency reported that the Kurdish fighters destroyed a key position of the Turkish troops and Ankara-backed militants near al-Vilat street in Afrin's center, killing four militants and wounding two more.
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" is available for sale at the following url
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  2. #2
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    In case anybody gets nostalgic and wants to read any of the 1,700 posts on the original thread, you can do it here. I also posted the very first thread that started the whole thread off.

    http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showt...LITARY-COLUMNS


    01-30-2018 12:36 AM #1
    Doomer Doug
    Doomer Doug is online now Has No Life - Lives on TB

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    SYRIAN ARMY FIRES ON ADVANCING TURKISH MILITARY COLUMNS

    Well, this is going to light things up in the Middle East quite nicely. I was wondering how far Erdogan the raving Ottoman Lunatic was going to push into Syria. I was also wondering when Assad junior was going to stop the advancing Turkish military now invading his country. It would look like more a shot over the bow situation, with only two shells fire, but the meaning is clear. Aleppo is quite a ways from the Syrian Turkish border for starters

    This is today, the 30th, and is from a Lebanese news source.

    https://www.almasdarnews.com/article

    Syrian Army artillery fires at approaching Turkish military convoy in southwest Aleppo
    By
    Andrew Illingworth -
    30/01/2018

    BEIRUT, LEBANON (8:49 A.M.) – On the night of Sunday to Monday, artillery forces of the Syrian Arab Army fired what appears to have been warning shots just ahead of the approach path of a Turkish convoy inbound to a key area in the southwestern countryside of Aleppo province.

    A large Turkish Army military convoy consisting of armored vehicles has had a Syrian Army artillery barrage fired just ahead of its advance route in southwest Aleppo province as it was en-route to the strategic area of Tal Al-Eis on Sunday night.

    The Syrian Army artillery strikes landed in and around the town of Qammari just before Turkish forces were due to pass through it.

    Some sources report that the artillery shelling was the result of a miscommunication between Damascus and Ankara over the agreed time for the allowed deployment of Turkish forces around Tal Al-Eis, saying that the Syrian Army had mistaken the military convoy as belonging to Al-Qaeda affiliate group Ha’yat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra).

    However, this version of events remains hard to believe due to the fact that if the Syrian Army genuinely mistook the Turkish convoy for a militant one, they would have shelled it directly without any warning or intention of missing.

    Last edited by Doomer Doug; 01-30-2018 at 12:57 AM.
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" is available for sale at the following url
    http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU

  3. #3
    15:23
    PUTIN, ERDOGAN TALK ON PHONE TO DISCUSS IMPLEMENTATION OF AGREEMENTS REACHED AT TOP-LEVEL RUSSIAN-TURKISH COOPERATION COUNCIL MEETING IN ANKARA - KREMLIN http://www.interfax.com/news.asp

  4. #4
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    Be done with this hitler

    Dump Turkey out of NATO. Take back Constantinople. Put the muzzie on the east side of the strait, Christian on the west. Send the euro migrants migrating back to the east side. Fixed
    cliff
    Keep your hand upon the throttle and your eye upon the rail.

    Fix for Congress---Retroactive term limits starting now.

  5. #5
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    Here we go, gang.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...oing-pay-price


    Trump To Make "Major" Decision On Syria "By End Of Day"; Says "Assad Going To Pay A Price"
    Profile picture for user Tyler Durden
    by Tyler Durden
    Mon, 04/09/2018 - 12:04

    With Israel already having conducted a trial balloon, or rather trial F-15 airstrike on a Syrian airfield overnight, now comes the US response. And according to Donald Trump, who moments ago was speaking to reporters, he will make a "major decision" on Syria in the next 24-48 hours, subsequently clarifying that the decision will come "very quickly" probably "by the end of today", adding that nothing is off the table.

    Taking a page from he Skripal affair, where the UK was recently humiliated for accusing Russia of being behind the attack only for UK chemical weapons experts to say there is zero evidence of this, Trump then also said that Assad is going to pay a price, even though here too there has been no evidence whatsoever that Assad, was actually behind the attack.

    TRUMP SAYS ASSAD IS GOING TO PAY A PRICE

    This entire episode of course is a rerun of what happened in February, when Rex Tillerson was the latest to blame Russia for the latest alleged "chemical attack" by the Assad regime, even though he later admitted he doesn't actually know who did it. It appears that the same thing is taking place now, although Trump's incentive to deflect from domestic affairs is great enough that the US now appears hell-bent on launching another round of Tomahawk cruise missiles on Syria in the next several days.

    And yes, just like in the Scrpal affair, it was once again Putin's fault:

    TRUMP SAYS PUTIN MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ATTACK IN SYRIA
    TRUMP SAYS EVERYBODY IS GOING TO PAY A PRICE

    ... just as it apparently is Putin's fault Trump is now in the White House.
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" is available for sale at the following url
    http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU

  6. #6
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    EREDOGAN NOW HAS AN ECONOMIC CRISIS TO DEAL WITH

    We all know that economic disasters can lead to shooting wars.


    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ors-high-rates


    Turkish Lira Tumbles To Record Low After Erdogan Promise To "Rescue Investors From High Rates"
    Profile picture for user Tyler Durden
    by Tyler Durden
    Mon, 04/09/2018 - 11:31

    Investors have called for higher interest rates to moderate an economy they say is overheating, but Turkey’s responded instead with stimulus measures aimed at boosting growth.

    “There isn’t much use, from a disinflation perspective, if any tightening by the central bank will lead the government to become even more aggressive via fiscal measures,” Kaan Nazli, a strategist at Neuberger Berman Group, said by email.

    And Erdogan's comments today have sparked fresh selling in the Lira...

    Those who say Turkey’s growth rate is excessive are speaking out of jealousy, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says in a speech announcing new investment incentives in Ankara.

    Erdogan says that the Turkish growth rate is creating a more just income distribution, and hopes that unemployment will drop below 10% soon.

    Growth means investment. Investment means employment, production, technology, exports and prosperity, Erdogan says.

    “Without bringing interest rates down, can these investments be done? We’re talking about an investment-support incentive system, and here, first of all, we need to save investors from these high interest rates"

    Above 5.00 against the Euro for the first time ever and above 4.00 versus the dollar for the first time ever...



    “This mismanagement of the currency leads to a loss of confidence in the purchasing power of the lira which is hard to cure,” said Lutz Roehmeyer, who helps oversee about $14 billion at Landesbank Berlin Investment GmbH. “Only massive one-off hikes can heal this situation, which is of course not popular as it slows the economy."
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" is available for sale at the following url
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  7. #7
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    ERDOGAN WITH HORNS

    Here is a picture of Erdogan I just couldn't resist posting!
    Attached Images
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
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  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doomer Doug View Post
    Here is a picture of Erdogan I just couldn't resist posting!
    conversely looks like a blue fez with a Stalinist star on top.

    FORTE EST VINUM, FORTIOR EST REX, FORTIORES SUNT MULIERES:

    SUPER OMNIA VINCIT VERITAS.


  9. #9
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    Check out the high-tech mortar system US forces set up in Manbij

    https://www.militarytimes.com/flashp...-up-in-manbij/ (fair use)

    1 hour ago Kyle Rempfer



    The Trump administration is not sure whether it will stay in Syria for the long-haul, but that hasn’t stopped U.S. service members from reinforcing their positions around the northern Syrian town of Manbij.

    In pictures and video that first surfaced on Kurdistan 24 — a news outlet in the region — U.S. forces appear to be flexing mine-resistant vehicles, weapons assets and construction equipment to Manbij in order to reinforce two bases there.

    One such video shows a U.S.-led coalition member setting up an XM905 Advanced Mortar Protection System, or AMPS, a Green Beret weapons sergeant familiar with the system confirmed to Military Times.

    The system is “used mostly for base defense” and was put up at many forward operating bases across Afghanistan for indirect fire support, the Green Beret said.
    It’s “heavy, so it’s just meant to stay in place and protect the base,” he added.

    However, the system is “not likely” to be given to partner forces to use or train with, the Green Beret said. Instead, AMPS is meant to be used to protect American positions and maybe NATO allies, he added.

    AMPS is a dismounted 120mm mortar system. The system has a recoil design, which reduces shock and improves accuracy, according to the Army. It also has an electric drive system, providing a 360-degree firing range, and allows for computerized laying of the cannon’s azimuth and elevation.

    All of this makes the system “capable of providing an accurate solution when emplaced on a sloped terrain,” according to the Army.

    This recoiling mortar was originally designed for the M1129 and M1252 Stryker Mortar Carriers, but was later adapted for the ground-based system seen in the video footage. (?)

    Photos from Manbij across social media show two coalition bases heavily laden with American flags and occupied by Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles, or MRAPs, as well as a lighter, more maneuverable variant called the Oshkosh M-ATV.

    The build-up comes days after an American and a British operator were killed by an improvised explosive device while conducting a mission in an urban area of Manbij on March 29.

    During that same incident, five other coalition troops were wounded. The coalition forces were conducting a raid to kill or capture a known member of the Islamic State.

    Still, the build-up should not signal much more than a reflexive posture after the incident, as well as other threats in the region, according to Eric Pahon, a Pentagon spokesman.
    “Throughout [U.S. Central Command], commanders are delegated the authority and the responsibility to position the number of people and resources needed to accomplish the mission and to protect themselves,” Pahon previously told Military Times. “Occasional modifications to force size would therefore be normal.”

    “We are continuing to implement the president's strategy to defeat ISIS. We will, however, continue to evaluate our posture with respect to conditions on the ground,” Pahon added.

    FORTE EST VINUM, FORTIOR EST REX, FORTIORES SUNT MULIERES:

    SUPER OMNIA VINCIT VERITAS.


  10. #10
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    It looks like it is game on for a US led attack on Syrian Army Forces in the Damascus area.

    the link is here

    http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13970120000824

    Mon Apr 09, 2018 1:48
    US Scenario to Attack Syrian Army in Eastern Ghouta Disclosed

    TEHRAN (FNA)- The US planned a scenario to attack the Syrian army positions in Eastern Ghouta of Damascus after Jeish al-Islam terrorists violated the agreement to evacuate the region and launched a false-flag chemical operation against the civilians to blame the government.

    The Arabic-language al-Mayadeen news website reported that Jeish al-Islam commanders were waiting for the US military operations against Syria while violating the agreement to leave Douma in Eastern Ghouta.

    Jeish al-Islam terrorists killed and wounded over 50 civilians with mortar attacks after violating the ceasefire deal and refrained from leaving Douma, provocating the Syrian army's response.

    They also launched false-flag chemical operations in the region and killed and wounded hundreds of civilians to raise allegations against the Syrian army.

    Analysts believe that all moves made by the terrorists in Douma in the past two days were based on a pre-planned scenario by the US, the western states and supporters of terrorist groups in Syria to find a pretext for Washington to launch military operations against Damascus.

    The Syrian government slammed the allegations of an alleged chemical attack in Douma, Eastern Ghouta, as an "unconvincing broken record", while NATO states have blamed the Syrian army for the alleged use of chemical weapons in Damascus province.

    "Allegations of chemical use have become an unconvincing broken record, except for some countries that trade with the blood of civilians and support terrorism in Syria. Every time the Syrian Arab Army advances in the fight against terrorism, allegations of chemical use are used as an excuse to prolong the life of terrorists in Douma," state news agency SANA quoted a ministry source as saying.

    Damascus' stance has been supported by Russia and Iran, which rejected media reports about the Syrian Armed Forces’ having dropped a chlorine-filled bomb on Douma.

    Last month, Damascus warned that several foreign experts were preparing to stage a chemical attack, which would be carried out with the help of the infamous White Helmets and would be covered by mainstream media. The same warning was issued by the Russian Center for Syria reconciliation in January.
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" is available for sale at the following url
    http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU

  11. #11
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    ERDOGAN MAKES A PUBLIC RELATIONS MOVE

    Erdogan concerned about dead civilians? Seriously?

    the link is here

    http://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/R...medium=twitter

    Report: Erdogan and Putin discussed need to halt civilian deaths in Syria's eastern Ghouta
    By REUTERS
    April 9, 2018 14:40


    ISTANBUL - Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stressed the importance of halting civilian deaths in Syria's eastern Ghouta region in a telephone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, a Turkish presidential source said.

    Suspected chemical attacks over the weekend killed at least 60 people and wounded more than 1,000 in Syria's rebel-held eastern Ghouta, a Syria medical relief group said.
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" is available for sale at the following url
    http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU

  12. #12
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    https://www.usnews.com/news/world/ar...ir-base-strike

    12:35 p.m.

    Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says that Russia expects Turkey to bring the strategic northern Syrian town of Afrin, previously held by Syrian Kurdish forces, under the control of the Syrian government.

    Turkey attacked Afrin in March to drive out the Kurdish militia, known as the YPG, which forms the backbone of the Syrian Democratic Forces, America's main partner in Syria.

    Lavrov spoke to reporters on Monday.

    He insisted that the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, had "never said that Turkey wants to occupy Afrin" and that Russia now expects Turkey to bring the area under Syrian government control.

    Sorry, but Erdogan has already annexed Afrin into a Turkish administrative zone, and appointed Turkish governors to rule it.

    Erdogan has also said multiple times he plans to attack Manjbi, as well as push to the Euphrates River, and also into Iraq. He has been very clear on all of these points the last month or so.
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" is available for sale at the following url
    http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU

  13. #13
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    Turkish front;

    4 PKK terrorists neutralized in southeastern Turkey https://aa.com.tr/en/todays-headline...urkey-/1113272
    By Ekrem Payan

    SIRNAK, Turkey

    Four PKK terrorists were neutralized in southeastern Turkey late on Monday, the Sirnak province Governor's Office said in a statement.

    Turkish authorities often use the word "neutralized" in their statements to imply that the terrorists in question were either killed or captured.

    The statement said the terrorists were neutralized as part of an operation on Mt. Cudi in the province.

    In its more than 30-year terror campaign against Turkey, the PKK -- listed as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the U.S. and the EU -- has been responsible for the deaths of 40,000 people.
    More than 1,200 Turkish security personnel and civilians, including women and children, have been killed since July 2015 alone, when the group resumed its terrorist campaign.

  14. #14

    4 Turkey to continue measures in Syria's Afrin until threats eliminated

    Reuters|Published: 04.10.18 , 13:08
    ANKARA – Turkey will continue to take measures in Syria's Afrin region, from which it drove the Kurdish YPG militia in an offensive this year, until all terror risks there are eliminated, Defense Minister Nurettin Canikli said on Tuesday.



    Speaking to reporters in parliament, Canikli said Afrin would be handed over to a central government in Syria when a new administration has been formed following elections, once terror threats in the region have been eliminated.https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,...226216,00.html

  15. #15
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    Turkish helicopter flies near islet of Ro, Greek troops fire warning shots
    http://www.ekathimerini.com/227501/a...-warning-shots (fair use)
    TUESDAY APRIL 10, 2018

    A Turkish helicopter flew around the perimeter of the eastern Greek islet of Ro, west of the Dodecanese island of Kastellorizo, at a low altitude late on Monday, Kathimerini reported.

    The helicopter left the area after Greek troops reportedly responded by firing tracer rounds as a warning.

    It was not clear what type of helicopter was involved in the incident which reportedly took place around 11.30 p.m. on Monday.
    Sources within the Defense Ministry said that the rules of engagement were implemented. Sources said Defense Minister Panos Kammenos was in constant contact with the head of the General Army Command (GES) and the chief of Hellenic Armed Forces General Staff (GEETHA).

    Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras was also briefed about the incident.

    Defense Ministry sources said that incidents of this sort are intended for the purpose of domestic consumption in Turkey. They added that Greece refrains from any provocation and will respond to similar actions in accordance with international rules of engagement.

    In a tweet Tuesday, the main opposition New Democracy’s shadow defense minister Vassilis Kikilias criticized the ministry for failing to provide details about Monday’s incident.

    On Sunday, two Turkish fighter jets entered Athens’s FIR, ignoring an informal moratorium on military activity that is customary between Greece and Turkey during major religious holidays.
    All violations were carried out by two Turkish F-16 jets which flew over Oinousses, a cluster of small islands in the northeastern Aegean.

    The overflights came on the heels of a visit by Defense Minister Panos Kammenos to a military outpost on Oinousses earlier on Sunday to exchange Easter wishes with the soldiers.

    FORTE EST VINUM, FORTIOR EST REX, FORTIORES SUNT MULIERES:

    SUPER OMNIA VINCIT VERITAS.


  16. #16
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    I don't care what the Turks say, DanielBoon. They have annexed Afrin into Turkey and appointed a Turkish governor for it. Watch what we do, and not what we say.
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" is available for sale at the following url
    http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU

  17. #17

    4 Greece shoots at encroaching Turkish helicopter

    Greek troops fired warning shots at a Turkish helicopter which flew into the country’s airspace last night, representing one of the biggest crises between the two Nato allies since 1996.

    Commander Manos Tzanis, a spokesman for the Greek Joint Chiefs of Staff, told The Times: “The incident is indicative of the new and upgraded measures of engagement [across Greece’s armed forces] because of heightened tensions with Turkey.”https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/w...fied-_-TWITTER

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doomer Doug View Post
    ... just as it apparently is Putin's fault Trump is now in the White House.
    Has anyone thought that Trump MAY be thinking he HAS TO PROVE he wasn't too 'chummy' with Russia, by playing hard-nose with them NOW?
    Be not soon shaken in mind, or be troubled…Let no man deceive you by any means…..
    they received not the love of the truth, that they might be saved….for this cause God shall send them strong delusion, that they should believe a lie….
    Nevertheless we, according to his promise, look for new heavens and a new earth, wherein dwelleth righteousness.


  19. #19
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    Turkey receives its first 'axis of evil' club award
    Cyber security warning issued over Turkey
    http://www.ekathimerini.com/227500/a...ed-over-turkey (fair use)

    The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands has warned Dutch travelers visiting Turkey that the safety of their electronic devices could be compromised, according to reports.

    The ministry reportedly said travelers should only carry “empty” phones and laptops with no sensitive data stored on them.

    The warning also applied to China, Russia, Iran, the reports said.

    FORTE EST VINUM, FORTIOR EST REX, FORTIORES SUNT MULIERES:

    SUPER OMNIA VINCIT VERITAS.


  20. #20
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    Erdogan is now apparently more concerned about his economy collapsing than military matters right now.

    the link is here

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...record-er-lows


    Lira Bounces As Turkey Reaches "Whatever It Takes" Moment
    Profile picture for user Tyler Durden
    by Tyler Durden
    Wed, 04/11/2018 - 09:11


    Update: It appears Turkey just reached its "whatever it takes" moment as Prime Minister Binali Yildirim warned that "speculative attacks on our economy are being made," and promised "the central bank will do what's needed, when needed" in fight against inflation.

    The Lira bounced modestly on the headlines...

    As we detailed earlier, two days ago we noted the rapid acceleration of the demise of Turkey's currency and bond markets, as Erdogan promised "to rescue investors from high rates" prompting (hyper)inflation concerns and central bank independence anxiety among investors.

    Since then it has got worse, much worse...

    The Turkish lira extended a slide to fresh record lows as wagers mount the central bank may hesitate to defend the currency with higher interest rates.

    Bloomberg reports that Piotr Matys, a strategist at Rabobank, notes that while the monetary authority can stop, or at least slow down the pace of the lira’s depreciation,

    “it is also a well-known notion among market participants that Governor Cetinkaya may have limited room to raise rates in the current domestic environment."

    "Only a few weeks ago my 4.20 target for USD/TRY I’ve had for a few months looked ambitious. I was also a bit worried that I could be too bullish on EUR/TRY expecting 5.12,” he said.

    "We are not that far from those targets, which shows how quickly things can deteriorate."

    Why should the average joe American investor worry about what's going on in Turkey?

    As Fasanara Capital's Francisco Filia explains, the catalyst for a deep repricing in markets can be entirely endogenous, within the space of its dangerous and fragile market structure.

    Alternatively, the list of exogenous catalysts is famously getting longer by the way: trade wars / capital wars between the US and China, political and geopolitical uncertainty, policy normalization (QT), inflation reborn, debt and deficits, etc

    In the last few days we added an important and overlooked exogenous factor to the list: Turkey.

    The Turkish lira is losing ground at pace, down over 11% this year, 42% in 2 years, 127% in 5 years. The move is mirrored by the Russian Ruble, which is nearing the weakest levels reached during the oil slump, when brent crude traded as low as 27$/bbl (it is 70$ now). US sanctions on Russian oligarchs and recent tensions in Syria are behind the recent 10% move. For Turkey, the narrative blames it on political uncertainty under Erdogan (challenge to constitutional rights, over 40 thousands people arrested, 800 companies confiscated in last few months, the highest unemployment in 7 years at 13%), geopolitical instability in the region, fears of trade wars escalation, etc.

    Now, such large devaluations would matter to any country. But particularly to a country like Turkey, that has:

    53% of total external debt on GDP, for over $400bn (where Reinhart and Rogoff put the at 30%-35% the critical threshold for debt intolerance)
    Foreign banks exposed for over $330bn, of which $170bn is in hard currency. $100bn of exposure for EU banks
    Current account deficit of 5.5% of GDP

    It matters all the most as inflation is reborn, QE is fading and rates are on the rise. When a lot of debt denominated in hard-currency meet rising rates and a fast-weakening currency, the probability of a default rises.

    On Saturday, Hurriyet newspaper revealed that Dogus Holding, one of Turkey’s largest conglomerates, was in talks with several banks to restructure TL23.5bn ($5.81bn) in debt. Just in September last year, Turkey was still dealing with its largest debt default, Otas, on a $4.75bn loan.

    Turkey defaulted (or debt restructured) 6 times in the last two centuries: 1876, 1915, 1931, 1940, 1978, 1982. Turkey was likely to be an issue to be dealt with at some point down the road: current events in FX and rates space bring such day of reckoning forward.

    In recent years, Russell Napier – editor of the Solid Ground - has been vocal in highlighting the dangers with Turkey debt, even without a deterioration in the political context (which is now also at play). He saw the possibility for Turkey to introduce capital controls and/or default on obligations: contagion to other EM would ensue, as “when credit stops flowing to one emerging market it stops flowing to all of them”.

    The latest acceleration in the Russian Ruble (10% off in two days) can provoke broader deleveraging on EM exposure, hitting on an already fragile context for the Turkish lira, and possibly proving to be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel's back. As the ruble suffers despite a strong oil price, the Turkish lira will instead feel a double hit: Turkey is a net importer of oil and therefore exposed to more damage to the economy and a worsening current account deficit in the process.

    What happens next in Turkey can matter to global markets, as they scramble to find a direction. Turkey is yet another catalyst in a long list of rivals (butterfly effects link) threatening to pop bubbles in bonds and equities globally (twin bubbles).

    Turkey could have knock-on effects on global assets in more ways than one. Directly, as Turkey represents close to 5% allocation for EM debt indexes and funds (more than that for buy-the-dip oriented vehicles). Indirectly, as it may concur in (i) breaking the glass ceiling of market complacency/narcosis, (ii) renewing fears on bank capital in Europe at a time of anti-EU political upheaval, (iii) pushing Turkey into more geopolitical assertiveness.

    Therefore, what may matter more than just what happens to Turkey, is what happens to risk assets globally should such a vulnerability be exposed. It would be the first one of scale in quite a while, dirtying the blue light in the sky of markets made price-insensitive to risks after 10 years of QE/NIRP helped to paper over any trouble along the way.

    Equity markets in the US are 9% from all-time-highs, staring down the abyss from the edge of the cliff, as they bounced off the 200-days moving average and trend-line 5 times in just two months, neatly, like a ball bounces off a floor. However, the moving average is no floor, and a long list of vulnerabilities may remind them of that. Turkey just joined such waiting list.
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" is available for sale at the following url
    http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU

  21. #21
    The Intel Crab


    @IntelCrab
    Follow Follow @IntelCrab
    More The Intel Crab Retweeted milliyet.com.tr
    Turkish air force denies any assets were nearby after a Greek fighter jet crashed into the Agean Sea earlier this morning.

  22. #22
    The Intel Crab Retweeted

    Paul Antonopoulos

    Verified account

    @oulosP
    40m40 minutes ago
    More
    Greek media reporting that a Turkish submarine is in the area where the Greek jet that was downed was operating. Pilot still missing.

  23. #23

    4

    Quote Originally Posted by danielboon View Post
    The Intel Crab


    @IntelCrab
    Follow Follow @IntelCrab
    More The Intel Crab Retweeted milliyet.com.tr
    Turkish air force denies any assets were nearby after a Greek fighter jet crashed into the Agean Sea earlier this morning.
    The Intel Crab Retweeted

    Mark MacKinnon

    Verified account

    @markmackinnon
    2h2 hours ago
    More Mark MacKinnon Retweeted Liana Spyropoulou
    Reports of a Greek fighter jet crashing after a “dog fight with Turkish fighter jets that violated Greece’s airspace”.

  24. #24

    4 Greek fighter jet comes down in Aegean: Greek state TV

    A Greek fighter pilot was missing on April 12 after his Mirage 2000-5 plane came down in the Aegean Sea after allegedly intercepting Turkish jets, Greek state TV ERT said.

    Coastguard and navy vessels have been dispatched to near the island of Skyros, where the plane is believed to have come down.

    It was not immediately clear if the pilot had ejected.

    ERT claimed the aircraft was part of a two-plane patrol that had just intercepted Turkish fighter jets.

    Greek fighter planes are regularly scrambled to intercept Turkish jets over the Aegean. http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/gre...tate-tv-130189

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Countrymouse View Post
    Has anyone thought that Trump MAY be thinking he HAS TO PROVE he wasn't too 'chummy' with Russia, by playing hard-nose with them NOW?
    Donald is playing the same game with Syria he played with NK. Relax and enjoy the ride. THIS is what the US USED to be. As long as we don't have to put up or shut up too many places at once.
    RULE 1:
    THEY want you DEAD.

    "If there must be trouble, let it be in my day, that my brothers' children (and their parents) may have peace, and have NO KNOWLEDGE of what I have done."

    The BEST in Life:
    To CRUSH your enemies.
    To see them driven before you
    To listen to the lamentations of their women

  26. #26
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    If it looks like a Greece v Turkey dogfight and sounds like a Greece v Turkey dogfight, it might be a Greece v Turkey dogfight.
    Eagerly awaiting more reports or claims.
    SS
    '
    The Dassault Mirage 2000-5 is a French multirole, single-engine fourth-generation jet fighter manufactured by Dassault Aviation. An improvement of the Mirage 2000, it was improved by Thomson-CSF (now Thales Group) in the early 1990s in response to the Mirage 2000's ageing compared to the latest F-16 fighter models.

    Improvements over the Mirage 2000 include the capability to carry a laser designator pod, new pulse-doppler multi-target radar, new defensive systems, and updated avionics, including a night vision-compatible glass cockpit, wide-angle HUD, and HOTAS controls.

    Coming into service with the French Air Force (Armée de l'Air), and exported to several countries, Dassault further improved it by creating the Mirage 2000-5 Mark 2 This is a link to a Wikipedia article, the most advanced of all Mirage 2000s.
    http://wiki.flightgear.org/Dassault_Mirage_2000-5
    “Then the creatures of the high air answered to the battle, .., and the woods trembled and the wind sobbed telling them, the earth shook,; the witches of the valley, and the wolves of the forests, howled from every quarter and on every side of the armies, urging them against one another.”
    ― Lady Gregory, Gods and Fighting Men: The Story of the Tuatha De Danaan and the Fianna of Ireland

  27. #27
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    I want to see the recovered gun cams.....
    RULE 1:
    THEY want you DEAD.

    "If there must be trouble, let it be in my day, that my brothers' children (and their parents) may have peace, and have NO KNOWLEDGE of what I have done."

    The BEST in Life:
    To CRUSH your enemies.
    To see them driven before you
    To listen to the lamentations of their women

  28. #28
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    It looks like the Kurds in Manjbi are having an early Christmas!

    Here is the link

    http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13970123000498

    Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:41
    Kurds in Manbij Receive New Weapons, Western States Intensify Activities in Northern Syria

    TEHRAN (FNA)- The US and other western states have increased activities in Northern Syria to support the Kurdish forces in the town of Manbij as tensions between Washington and Ankara have intensified in the region, sources said, adding that the Kurds have received new weapons.

    The Arabic-language al-Mayadeen news channel quoted Kurdish sources as saying on Thursday that recently a large volume of weapons have been sent to Manbij in Northern Syria, adding that most of them are Saudi arms.

    They also revealed that the US-led coalition has set up a coordination center with the Kurds to protect Manbij from the Turkish army attacks.

    Meantime, reports said that the US, French and British forces have conducted patrolling missions in Manbij.

    The American forces continue deployment and establish new positions in Manbij despite US President Donald Trump's earlier claims that he intends to end Washington's military presence in Syria.

    Tensions intensified between Turkey and the US after a new convoy of the US and French forces entered the town of Manbij to provide support for the Kurdish fighters in Northeastern Syria.

    Arabic-language Smart news website reported last Sunday that a new convoy of the US and French army troops, including 18 military and armored vehicles, have been sent to Manbij from their base in the town of Tal Abyadh in Northern Raqqa.

    The website further said that the newly-arrived convoy of the US and French forces moved towards the village of Khatab Northwest of Manbij.

    In the meantime, other field sources reported that a US convoy, including several trucks carrying vehicles, ambulances and cement barriers crossed Simalka passageway at Iraq-Syria border and entered Kurdish-held regions.

    They pointed out that the Simalka border-crossing is mainly used for transferring military hardware.
    Attached Images
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" is available for sale at the following url
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  29. #29
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    Erdogan didn't wait very long to install, via "free elections," his puppet government in Afrin.

    the link is here

    http://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/syria/120420183


    Turkish-backed interim council elected in Afrin: state media
    By Rudaw 1 hour ago

    A Turkish-backed Syrian fighter tears down a picture of Abdullah Ocalan north of Afrin during military operations in March. Photo: Nazeer al-Khatib/AFP
    ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – An interim local council has been elected in Afrin, consisting of 20 “elders from the city” – 11 Kurds, eight Arabs, and one Turkmen, Turkish state media reported.

    The council is headed by a Kurd named Zuhair Haider who, in an interview with Anadolu Agency, expressed his gratitude to Turkey and vowed to “serve” the local citizens.

    “We thank Turkey for making this happen. We will serve Afrin people. The Olive Branch region will be a model as Euphrates Shield was,” said Haider.

    Turkey and allied Syrian militias took control of the Kurdish canton of Afrin last March after a two-month military campaign named Operation Olive Branch. The cross-border offensive followed Turkey’s 2016 Euphrates Shield operation on areas west of the Euphrates and north of Aleppo.

    An estimated 137,000 civilians are still displaced from Afrin, most living in the Tal Rifaat area where conditions are difficult. Many families are sleeping in the open, restricted from entering regime-held territory in Aleppo and unable to return to their homes.

    An estimated 50,000 to 70,000 people have remained in Afrin city.

    Haider called on people to return to their homes. “If all Afrin people return, we could hold a more democratic election,” he said.

    Members of the Turkish-backed council must be from Afrin and live in the canton.

    “We will govern ourselves, not those who come from Qandil or elsewhere,” Haider added, referring to the Kurdistan Region headquarters of the PKK.

    Afrin is the western-most canton of the self-autonomous Northern Syrian Federation, known as Rojava. Turkey considers the ruling Rojava party, the PYD, and the armed YPG/YPJ to be branches of the PKK, a named terror group. Ankara framed its military operation in Afrin as counter-terrorism.

    The Kurdish groups deny the charge and have accused Turkey of trying to change the demography of Afrin.

    Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has urged Turkey to hand Afrin over to Damascus – a move Ankara has flatly rejected.

    “We will give Afrin back to its inhabitants when the time comes, but we will determine the time, not Mr. Lavrov,” said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

    The newly-elected head of the council explained that the body was formed under the umbrella of the opposition Syrian National Coalition (SNC) and is affiliated with Aleppo’s local council.

    Abdulrahman Mustafa, deputy head of SNC, vowed to restore basic services to the canton.

    “Turkey is trying to prevent the division of Syria. We have same priorities as Turkey,” he said, adding, “The interim council will soon resume health and education services.”

    Eight people were also elected as members of an executive board.

    The Kurdish forces have vowed to continue to fight Turkey in Afrin, carrying out guerilla-style attacks on Turkish troops and Syrian militias.
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" is available for sale at the following url
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  30. #30
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    Erdogan is now moving to attack farther east from Afrin, just like he said he would. He is getting closer to combat with US forces in Manjbi.

    the link is here

    http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13970125000633

    Sat Apr 14, 2018 5:0
    Turkish Army Set to Launch Major Offensive against Kurds in Raqqa

    TEHRAN (FNA)- The Turkish army and allied militants are preparing for occupation of the town of Tal Abyadh in Northern Raqqa after recent attacks on the positions of the Kurdish militias in the region, field sources said on Saturday.

    The sources reported that the Turkish army has killed a number of Kurdish forces in Tal Abyadh in heavy machine-gun attacks.

    Meantime, Turk Press news website quoted Arabi 21 website as reporting that the Turkish army is preparing for military operations against the Kurds in Tal Abyadh.

    According to the report, a meeting was held in Turkey between the Turkish commanders and a number of militants stationed in Tal Abyadh to start military operations against the Kurds in the region.

    In a relevant development earlier this month, the Turkish Air Force raided the strongholds of the Kurdish militias in Raqqa province in Northeastern Syria as other units of the Turkish army were widening the scope of their Operation Olive Branch in Northern Syria, an Arab media outlet reported.

    The Arabic-language al-Watan daily reported that the Turkish warplanes struck several times the warehouses of the 93rd Brigade Base in the town of Ein Issa in Northern Raqqa that is under the Kurdish fighters' control.

    The daily further said that the Kurdish forces declared curfew in the region after the air attacks.

    In the meantime, local reports said that the Turkish army targeted a group of the Kurdish gunmen in the town of Ra'as al-Ein in Northwestern Hasaka.
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" is available for sale at the following url
    http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU

  31. #31
    Gregor Peter‏ @L0gg0l · Apr 17

    Two Turkish fighter jets have harassed the helicopter carrying Greek PM Tsipras and his army chief, Kathimerini reports

  32. #32
    Turkey warns Greece after flag is hoisted on disputed islet

    By The Associated Press
    ANKARA, Turkey — April 16, 2018, 9:29 AM ET

    Turkey warned Greece on Monday to refrain from "provocations" after a Greek flag was hoisted on a disputed, uninhabited islet in the Aegean Sea off the Turkish coast.

    Prime Minister Binali Yildirim told reporters that the Turkish coast guards had removed the flag from the island off the coast of the Aegean resort of Didim.

    Yildirim said the incident was similar to one in 1996 when the two NATO allies went to war over uninhabited islets — known as Imia in Greek and Kardak in Turkish — which both Turkey and Greece claim.

    "Our advice to Greece would be to stay away from provocations and agitations,"

    Yildirim said adding that Turkey was "determined to give the necessary response" to such acts.

    Despite two decades of efforts to improve relations, Greece and Turkey have seen a spike in tensions in recent weeks over disputed Aegean boundaries as well as over oil-and-gas drilling rights off the divided island of Cyprus.

    Asked about the incident during a joint news conference with visiting the NATO chief, Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu accused Greece's defense minister — the outspoken leader of Greece's nationalist party — of raising tensions in the Aegean Sea.

    "His brattiness shouldn't reach a level where it'll damage relations between the two countries," Cavusoglu said.

    In Athens, Greek government spokesman Dimitris Tzannakopoulos said the government had no knowledge of the incident and described the remarks by Yildirim as "provocative and reprehensible."

    "I think Mr. Yildirim should be more careful," Tzannakopoulos said. "We call on Turkey to return to a path of respect for international law ... They should take an initiative to de-escalate the tension."

    http://abcnews.go.com/International/...islet-54495933

  33. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by northern watch View Post
    Gregor Peter‏ @L0gg0l · Apr 17

    Two Turkish fighter jets have harassed the helicopter carrying Greek PM Tsipras and his army chief, Kathimerini reports
    Okay, that's f'ed up.
    Your levity is good, it relieves tension and the fear of death.

    The Frigid Times - http://www.frigidtimes.blogspot.com/
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    Believe what you will, but the Russian nuclear threat is far from dead. It ain't even sick. - Brutus

  34. #34
    Greece looks like it is not backing down against Erdogan.

  35. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by TheSearcher View Post
    Okay, that's f'ed up.
    Yes the nut job from turkey is just asking for it

  36. #36
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    I wonder when NATO will officially admit that Turkey, under our delusional, I am Sultan, Erdogan is NO LONGER A MEMBER OF TURKEY? I'm seeing some denial here at NATO about Turkey's true status, especially when Putin ships them the new S-400 missile batteries in the summer of 2019.

    And yeah, one NATO MEMBER, IE TURKEY, BUZZING THE HELICOPTER CARRYING THE PM AND DEFENSE MINISTER OF ANOTHER NATO COUNTRY, IE GREECE, isn't exactly kosher.

    I was in the US Army back in the spring of 1974 when the Greeks and Turks nearly went for it over Cyprus. It is entirely possible that despite all the other $%%%% Erdogan is doing, he may very well light up Cyprus, Greece, or both. It would be a fitting end for NATO, which should have abolished itself back in 1992 when the real cold war ended, to collapse because one NATO member, Greece, is attacked by another NATO member, Turkey and they both invoke clause 5.

    Sheesh, we are living in times of part fantasy, part horror movie, part farce and part lust for power. Erdogan, well the man just doesn't know when to either shut up, or stop, and that is going to end badly for all involved. I really wonder if Putin realizes he has another Rasputin at the end of his fishing line!
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" is available for sale at the following url
    http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU

  37. #37
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    FREE E-Book From the Center for Security Policy - Ally No More: Erdogan’s New Turkish Caliphate and the Rising Jihadist Threat to the West

    “Whither Turkey?” is a question that has become one of the most pressing national security topics of our time. The available evidence – including, notably, the increasingly overt ambition of Recep Tayyip Erdogan to become the Caliph of a neo-Ottoman empire, his naked hostility toward the United States and the damage being done by Turkey to America’s vital interests and those of the rest of NATO and other allies like Israel and the Kurds – suggests the answer is alarming.

    That evidence is thoughtfully assessed in a new book from the Center for Security Policy Press,Ally No More: Erdogan’s New Turkish Caliphate and the Rising Jihadist Threat to the West. Its ten essays include a detailed treatment of the presence of Turkish influence operations and infrastructure in this country that could enable the regime in Ankara not only to harm U.S. interests elsewhere, but to engage in subversion here – making it required reading for American policy-makers and the public, alike. ​

    A group of highly respected authors/experts – notably including Harold Rhode Burak Bekdil, Uzay Bulut, David Goldman, Daniel Pipes and the Center for Security Policy’s Executive Vice President Christopher Hull and Senior Fellow Deborah Weiss – contributed chapters to this much-needed book. So did the Center’s Vice President for Research and Analysis, Clare M. Lopez, who also served as Ally No More’s editor.

    This extensively footnoted collection of essay features insightful treatments of: Turkey’s own demographic and economic situation; Erdogan’s increasingly autocratic disregard for Turkey’s constitution and escalating record of human rights abuses; and the apparently not-quite-final divorce from Erdogan’s longtime jihadist collaborator, Fethullah Gulen.

    Dr. Rhode’s chapter as well as two others focus on a strategic look at how Turkey is not only alienating itself from its own Ataturk legacy by pursuing a frankly jihadist agenda, but from the U.S. directly, through Erdogan’s brazen alliance with the Muslim Brotherhood on U.S. territory. Dr. Pipes offered suggestions for necessarily tough, but effective, measures for Turkey’s NATO allies to take in response to Erdogan’s overtly hostile policies.

    Overall, this is a most timely and scholarly contribution to our understanding of shifting realities that must be dealt with in a clear-eyed and expeditious manner if U.S. national security priorities are to be preserved.

    Upon the release of Ally No More: Erdoğan’s New Turkish Caliphate and the Rising Jihadist Threat to the West, Frank Gaffney Jr. President of the Center for Security Policy observed:

    Few recent geostrategic developments are as fraught as the transformation of Turkey from a reliable, secular and democratic allied nation to one ruled by a hostile, Sharia-supremacist and increasingly despotic regime. This book maps out that trajectory and its implications – and offers astute and timely suggestions for how America must respond.

    DOWNLOAD BOOK HERE:
    https://www.centerforsecuritypolicy....rkey_Final.pdf
    Deo adjuvante non timendum - With God Helping, Nothing is to be Feared
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  38. #38
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    Ragnarok, I haven't figured out whether Erdogan calling for new elections will result in a total control of all political power, or whether he will get crushed like PM May of Great Britain lost big when she called a snap election. MY gut is telling me this Turkish election will result in giving Erdogan a level of political control that Hitler would envy.
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
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  39. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doomer Doug View Post
    Ragnarok, I haven't figured out whether Erdogan calling for new elections will result in a total control of all political power, or whether he will get crushed like PM May of Great Britain lost big when she called a snap election. MY gut is telling me this Turkish election will result in giving Erdogan a level of political control that Hitler would envy.
    I agree with your gut...
    Deo adjuvante non timendum - With God Helping, Nothing is to be Feared
    "You are like a pit-bull..." - Dennis Olson
    "No man knows but that the last backward glance over his shoulder may be his last look, forever." - Ernie Pyle Born: 1900 KIA: 1945 Shima, Okinawa

  40. #40
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    Greece to lease French warships amid Aegean tensions with Turkey
    https://www.thelocal.fr/20180421/gre...ns-with-turkey (fair use)
    AFP
    news.france@thelocal.com
    @thelocalfrance
    21 April 2018
    09:05 CEST+02:0

    Greece will this summer lease two state-of-the-art French warships, the defence ministry said Friday, as Athens seeks to bolster its defences in the Aegean Sea amid growing tensions with Turkey.
    Confirming a report by the daily Kathimerini, Greece's deputy defence minister, Fotis Kouvelis, told Skai radio that France "has made two frigates available to us in a leasing agreement."

    The deal was finalised in a telephone call between Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and French President Emmanuel Macron, Kouvelis said.

    According to the daily Kathimerini, Greece will lease two French FREMM-type navy frigates for a period of five years, with the vessels expected to be inducted into the Greek Navy by August.

    At the end of the five-year lease, Greece is to take delivery of its first Belharra frigate, Kathimerini reported.

    The acquisition of the two frigates -- probably the Languedoc and the Aquitaine -- was part of efforts to boost the country's military capabilities at a time of rising tensions with Turkey, the newspaper said.
    In the meantime, speaking on Friday afternoon, French Defense Minister Florence Parly said that the news "is not relevant, although of course we are at the disposal of our Greek friends to continue working even more closely."

    A Greek defense ministry source expressed surprise at Parly's comments, insisting that Greek premier Tsipras had given the go-ahead on Thursday evening for Kouvelis to talk about the deal.

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    SUPER OMNIA VINCIT VERITAS.


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