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  1. #1


    WAITING FOR THE NEXT CARRINGTON EVENT: In Sept. 1859, the sun unleashed a series of solar flares so powerful that telegraph offices caught fire and auroras were seen as far south as Cuba. Known as the Carrington Event, this iconic solar storm is a touchstone for discussions of extreme space weather. Could it happen again? In a paper published May 10th, researchers from the University of Birmingham use Extreme Value Theory to estimate the average time between "Carrington-like flares." Their best answer: ~100 years. In other words, we may be overdue for a really big storm. Read the original research here.

    Go to link to see the research.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Where its wet alot
    Slow News Day Click Bait.

    I get it that their estimates are based on "Extreme Value Theory"....LOL

    Which is why I don't buy this "estimate".... too many other variables.
    JOHN 3:16 / John 8:32 And ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you FREE.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Portland, Oregon
    Some notes I've collected on the subject. The Carrington Event was by no means the last geomagnetic storm of any consequence, nor was it the worst geomagnetic storm uncovered.

    quiet times: between +20 nT and -20 nT
    moderate geomagnetic storm: between -50 nT and -100 nT
    moderate storm: between -100 nT and -250 nT
    geomagnetic super-storm: greater than -250 nT

    - current flows are greatly increased in areas that sit directly on rock, the rock prevents current flowing through the earth and instead takes the better flow path through power lines (this is called geomagnetically induced currents)

    - long transmission lines (many kilometers in length) are subject to damage by geomagnetically induced currents, this chiefly includes operators in China, North America, and Australia (especially in modern high-voltage, low-resistance lines), the European grid consists mainly of shorter transmission circuits which are less vulnerable to damage

    - internet service providers may well go down during geomagnetic storms and remain non-operational long after, so any equipment requiring a working internet connection to function may not work (and that includes some power plant equipment)

    - rapidly fluctuating geomagnetic fields can produce geomagnetically induced currents in pipelines, which can cause pipeline flow meters to transmit erroneous flow information


    2005/01/20-Solar activity released the highest concentration of protons ever directly measured

    2003/11/04-Halloween Solar Storm series, solar flare rated X28 but some researchers calculated it could have been as high as X45, even at X28 it was the biggest solar flare ever recorded but fortunately it only indirectly affected Earth, before it was over x-rays overloaded the detectors on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES), a one hour power outage occurred in Sweden as a direct result of the solar activity, the Ulysses (near Jupiter), Cassini (approaching Saturn), and Voyager-2 (so far out it took until April 2004 for the energy to reach it) spacecraft all detected the storm, at least one of the solar storms in the series was compared by some scientists in its intensity to the Carrington Event, researchers from the University of Otago/New Zealand used an indirect method of radio wave-based measurements of the x-rays' effects on the Earth's upper atmosphere to revise the flare's size from a merely huge X28 to a "whopping" X45, the solar flare that knocked Quebec's electrical grid out in August 1989 was "only" a X15-X20 ("minimum Dst values were -151, -353 and -383 nT" - Wikipedia)

    2001/04/03-Solar flare rated X20, the same intensity as the flare that took out Quebec's electrical grid in August 1989

    2000/07/14-Bastille Day Solar Storm, solar flare rated X5.7, geomagnetic super storm occurred on July 1517, despite the storm's strength no power distribution failures were reported, this was observed by Voyager-1 and Voyager-2, this was the biggest solar radiation event since the 1989/03/13 Quebec blackout, the proton event was four times more intense than any previously recorded since the launches of SOHO in 1995 and ACE in 1997 ("the minimum of the Dst index was -301 nT" - Wikipedia)

    1989/08/16-Solar flare rated X20, this tied 2001/04/02 as the biggest solar flares on record prior to the X28/X45 event on 2003/11/04

    1989/03/13-Solar storm rated X15-X20 knocked out Quebec's hydroelectric system and blacked out the entire province for twelve hours and affecting six million people, the Northern Lights were seen as far south as Texas and Cuba, Australian UN troops in Namibia had severe problems with their communications (which depended on HF radio communications), four of the Navy's navigational satellites had to be taken out of service for up to a week ("The minimum of Dst was -589 nT." - Wikipedia)

    1921/05/15-Immense solar storm, produced ground currents as much as ten times stronger than the 1989/03/13 Quebec storm, auroras were seen Pasadena/CA and in the eastern US, strongly affected New York state and Europe, ended all communications traffic from the Atlantic Coast to the Mississippi ("The study said a future solar storm like the great magnetic storm of May 1921 would black out most states east of the Mississippi River along with most states in the Pacific Northwest.") ("According to a study by Metatech corporation, a storm with a strength comparable to that of 1921 would destroy more than 300 transformers and leave over 130 million people without power in the United States, costing several trillion dollars.")

    1882/11/17-Geomagnetic storm lasted from November 11-26, knocked out some telegraph lines and started a few fires

    1859/09/03-Carrington Event, immense solar storm shorted out telegraph wires in the US and in Europe and aurora were seen as far south as Rome, Hawaii (about 20 degrees N), and Cuba, auroras over the Rocky Mountains were so bright, the glow woke campers who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning, estimated to be three times the size [also saw as ten times the size] of the 1989/03/13 Quebec solar storm and 50% or more stronger than the superstorm of May 1921, estimated at 200 nT (nano-Teslas) in strength ("The horizontal field was reduced by 1600 nT as recorded by the Colaba Observatory. It is estimated that Dst would have been approximately -1760 nT. - Wikipedia"

    0993-0994-"The 993994 carbon-14 spike was a rapid increase in carbon-14 content from tree rings, and followed the 774775 carbon-14 spike. This event is also confirmed by a sharp increase of beryllium-10 and hence considered as solar-origin. It may have come from a massive solar storm as a series of auroral observations are known to be observed in late 992."

    07740775-"The common paradigm is that the event was caused by a solar particle event (SPE), or a consequences of events as often happen, from a very strong solar flare, perhaps the strongest ever known, but still within the Sun's abilities." / "The event of 774 is the strongest spike over the last 11,000 years in the record of cosmogenic isotopes.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Portland, Oregon
    And a little something on the subject of the Really Big Transformers (that's my name for them, this link calls them LPTs) that power almost every modern electrical infrastructure system on the planet:

    "Large power transformers are essential critical infrastructure to the electric grid, and are huge, weighing up to 820,000 pounds. If large power transformers are destroyed by a geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) electromagnetic pulse (EMP), cyber-attack, sabotage, severe weather, floods, or simply old age, parts or all of the electric grid could be down in a region for 6 months to 2 years. ... There are possibly tens of thousands of LPT’s in America, mostly built between 1954 and 1978, so an increasing percentage of these aging LPT’s will need to be replaced within the next few decades."

    "The result is the possibility of an extended lead time that could stretch beyond 20 months and up to five years in extreme cases if the manufacturer has difficulty obtaining any key inputs [tanstaafl comment: you've got to assume that "difficulty" would be more the norm than the exception in a post-disaster world, even assuming the global transportation infrastructure itself wasn't in total chaos], such as bushings and other key raw materials, or if considerable new engineering is needed. ... In 2010, 6 power transformer manufacturing facilities existed in the United States, and together, they met approximately 15% of the Nation’s demand for power transformers at a capacity rating greater than or equal to 60 megavolt-amperes (MVA). Although the exact statistics are unavailable, global power transformer supply conditions indicate that the Nation’s reliance on foreign manufacturers was even greater for extra high-voltage (EHV) power transformers with a maximum voltage rating greater than or equal to 345 kilovolts (kV)."

    (posted 2015/01/21 - - This post contains excerpts from the Department of Energy document "Large power transformers and the U.S. electric grid")

  5. #5
    This is another doom event that will one day slap humans upside the head with no warning. There's a million ways to go. I guess the question is that will we leave this earth individually when our time comes or in a rush of humanity.


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