Check out the TB2K CHATROOM, open 24/7               Configuring Your Preferences for OPTIMAL Viewing
  To access our Email server, CLICK HERE

  If you are unfamiliar with the Guidelines for Posting on TB2K please read them.      ** LINKS PAGE **



*** Help Support TB2K ***
via mail, at TB2K Fund, P.O. Box 24, Coupland, TX, 78615
or


Earth Chgs THE WORSENING COSMIC RAY SITUATION
+ Reply to Thread
Results 1 to 12 of 12
  1. #1

    THE WORSENING COSMIC RAY SITUATION

    http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?...h=03&year=2018
    (fair use applies)

    GO TO LINKS UNDER IMAGES FOR EXTENDED CAPTIONS AND EXPLANATIONS

    THE WORSENING COSMIC RAY SITUATION:

    Cosmic rays are bad–and they're getting worse. That's the conclusion of a new paper just published in the research journal Space Weather. The authors, led by Prof. Nathan Schwadron of the University of New Hampshire, show that radiation from deep space is dangerous and intensifying faster than previously predicted.

    The story begins four years ago when Schwadron and colleagues first sounded the alarm about cosmic rays. Analyzing data from the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) instrument onboard NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), they found that cosmic rays in the Earth-Moon system were peaking at levels never before seen in the Space Age. The worsening radiation environment, they pointed out, was a potential peril to astronauts, curtailing how long they could safely travel through space.

    This figure from their original 2014 paper shows the number of days a 30-year old male astronaut flying in a spaceship with 10 g/cm2 of aluminum shielding could go before hitting NASA-mandated radiation limits:


    http://spaceweather.com/images2018/0...tc4u6dfba81j73

    In the 1990s, the astronaut could spend 1000 days in interplanetary space. In 2014 … only 700 days. "That's a huge change," says Schwadron.

    Galactic cosmic rays come from outside the solar system. They are a mixture of high-energy photons and sub-atomic particles accelerated toward Earth by supernova explosions and other violent events in the cosmos. Our first line of defense is the sun: The sun's magnetic field and solar wind combine to create a porous 'shield' that fends off cosmic rays attempting to enter the solar system. The shielding action of the sun is strongest during Solar Maximum and weakest during Solar Minimum–hence the 11-year rhythm of the mission duration plot above.

    The problem is, as the authors note in their new paper, the shield is weakening: "Over the last decade, the solar wind has exhibited low densities and magnetic field strengths, representing anomalous states that have never been observed during the Space Age. As a result of this remarkably weak solar activity, we have also observed the highest fluxes of cosmic rays."

    Back in 2014, Schwadron et al used a leading model of solar activity to predict how bad cosmic rays would become during the next Solar Minimum, now expected in 2019-2020. "Our previous work suggested a ~ 20% increase of dose rates from one solar minimum to the next," says Schwadron. "In fact, we now see that actual dose rates observed by CRaTER in the last 4 years exceed the predictions by ~ 10%, showing that the radiation environment is worsening even more rapidly than we expected." In this plot bright green data points show the recent excess:


    http://spaceweather.com/images2018/0...tc4u6dfba81j73

    The data Schwadron et al have been analyzing come from CRaTER on the LRO spacecraft in orbit around the Moon, which is point-blank exposed to any cosmic radiation the sun allows to pass. Here on Earth, we have two additional lines of defense: the magnetic field and atmosphere of our planet. Both mitigate cosmic rays.

    But even on Earth the increase is being felt. Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus have been launching space weather balloons to the stratosphere almost weekly since 2015. Sensors onboard those balloons show a 13% increase in radiation (X-rays and gamma-rays) penetrating our planet's atmosphere:


    http://spaceweather.com/images2018/0...tc4u6dfba81j73

    X-rays and gamma-rays detected by these balloons are "secondary cosmic rays," produced by the crash of primary cosmic rays into Earth's upper atmosphere. They trace radiation percolating down toward our planet's surface. The energy range of the sensors, 10 keV to 20 MeV, is similar to that of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

    How does this affect us? Cosmic rays penetrate commercial airlines, dosing passengers and flight crews so much that pilots are classified by the International Commission on Radiological Protection as occupational radiation workers. Some research shows that cosmic rays can seed clouds and trigger lightning, potentially altering weather and climate. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias in the general population.

    Cosmic rays will intensify even more in the years ahead as the sun plunges toward what may be the deepest Solar Minimum in more than a century. Stay tuned for updates.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
    Location
    Swimming in sea quarks
    Posts
    3,767
    A timely article.
    Facts?? We don't need no stinkin facts...

  3. #3
    I note that - to date - there is very little information being offered up about practical steps to protect oneself or adapt to the increase in radiation.

  4. #4
    Is this one area where living in the so very dreary PNW is actually a good thing? Or are we getting zapped as much as someone enjoying more blue skies and sunshine? (Why yes, I am tired of clouds and winter and cold and damp, thank you very much!. lol At least we aren't shoveling the damp, I guess.)

  5. #5
    Join Date
    May 2001
    Location
    yankee baptist land
    Posts
    16,656
    I recall reading somewhere that 8’ of water would be an adequate, effective barrier against cosmic radiation. I think it was “Eight Easy Steps to Colonize the Galaxy”.

    Build a swimming pool on top of your root cellar.
    ” Watch ye therefore and pray always that ye may be accounted worthy to escape all these things that shall come to pass and to stand before the Son of Man”
    Luke 21:36

    COLLAPSE NOW: avoid the rush

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
    Location
    Swimming in sea quarks
    Posts
    3,767
    Quote Originally Posted by Sacajawea View Post
    I note that - to date - there is very little information being offered up about practical steps to protect oneself or adapt to the increase in radiation.
    Below 25,000 feet or so, there would be no appreciably noticeable increase in radiation.
    Stolen from wiki as its mostly accurate;
    Near the equator, the stratosphere starts at 18 km (59,000 ft; 11 mi); at mid latitudes, it starts at 10–13 km (33,000–43,000 ft; 6.2–8.1 mi) and ends at 50 km (160,000 ft; 31 mi); at the poles, it starts at about 8 km (26,000 ft; 5.0 mi).
    Polar flights always receive more dose as they are the thinnest areas of the atmosphere as a whole.
    To add a kink to that, those are median numbers. Our atmosphere shrinks and expands with thermal cycling from the sun. At solar max it's thicker but less dense, at solar min it's thinner but more dense.
    Regardless of the cycle, the volume of matter/atoms in the atmosphere remains unchanged.
    However with that shrinking, the charged particles and EM spectrum ionizing radiation begins closer to the surface. That in turn raises the dose rates for flights, particularly polar flights.

    None of that makes it to the surface directly. It is attenuated through various processes (photoelectric, Compton scattering, pair production etc) until it won't even spike a meter on the ground.
    Part of that attenuation is cosmic spallation or the creation of radio-isotopes such as Be10, C10, and others. That also changes the composition of what's in the atmosphere as those isotopes mix and match with various elements. Bore a hole in the ground or a tree and send it off to a lab for spectrometry, and you'll find a large portion of those isotopes embedded in them. It's been that way since there was an atmosphere.

    If we get hit with something strong enough to get us on the ground, we are all dead anyway so I don't worry about. What would be the point in hiding underground when everything on the surface dies?

    The effects we should be worried about are therefore secondary. Already many are noting a sun that's more white than yellow.

    We perceive color changes due to scattering of light in the atmosphere. Just look at a sunset or rise for an example (only very briefly if you don't want to burn your eyes). The sun puts out the whole spectrum 24/7. The change from yellow to white has nothing to do with the sun changing spectrum, but everything to do with the density and volume of air it passes through. White sun = less scatter = a shift in impingement wavelengths on the surface. The quality of the light changes. Plants don't like changes like that usually.

    Quantity of light is related but separate. We'll call it volume of light. The volume can change but just like an old school bulb on a rheostat can change the volume (dimmer/brighter) the wavelengths output remain unchanged. Think of it like water. Which will deliver more water in an hour from the same sized hose, 30psi, or 100psi? It's the latter.

    So now we have a spectrum shift hitting the ground due to changes in atmospheric scattering along with a reduced volume. What will that do to plant life on the ground? What happens if you lower the volume of light on a house plant (less time in sunlight/light of any kind) and reduce its water?

    That's job #1 or should be. It takes x amount of light, along with a relatively narrow band of the electromagnetic spectrum to grow a plant. All the nutrients and water in the world won't change that.

    Then we get to heating of the oceans. The ocean itself doesn't care what the spectrum is, it cares more about volume of energy delivered to it.
    One BTU = the amount of heat to raise 1 lb of water by 1°F. The heat source is our sun.

    Thermalhaline currents play a large part in our weather patterns. Change their speed and/or their volume and we get weather changes. The severity of which is dependent upon the severity of that change in speed/volume.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ther...ne_circulation

    Crop failures, severe weather changes, those are secondary effects we should concentrate on, not the increase in upper atmosphere radiation.
    Facts?? We don't need no stinkin facts...

  7. #7
    Thanks Rayku. That all makes sense now. Maybe I need to go looking for the old style incandescents.... just for their color wavelength for starting plants. Instead of the LED version... which I usually perceive as a "whiter" light - even when it's listed as a "warm white". I'm still getting myself organized along those lines... designing.... planning.

    The OP mentions an expectation that the minimum will be next year through 2020. I wonder how confident they are in those dates and duration?

  8. #8
    Actually, you might want to look at LEDs... specifically a combination of blue and red ones. They give off a damned weird light (I never go near mine without good sunglasses on), but grow incredibly lush, sturdy plants.

    Look for some of StanB's threads on his greenhouse and tomato starts for some pictures of a homemade light and what the light looks like.

    Summerthyme

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
    Location
    Swimming in sea quarks
    Posts
    3,767
    Quote Originally Posted by Sacajawea View Post
    Thanks Rayku. That all makes sense now. Maybe I need to go looking for the old style incandescents.... just for their color wavelength for starting plants. Instead of the LED version... which I usually perceive as a "whiter" light - even when it's listed as a "warm white". I'm still getting myself organized along those lines... designing.... planning.

    The OP mentions an expectation that the minimum will be next year through 2020. I wonder how confident they are in those dates and duration?
    This is one time you can't trust your eyes. LEDs do work better to fine tune wavelengths. Every plant has preferred wavelengths that they react to. Under normal circumstances regarding sunlight etc, the broad spectrum hit contains the required wavelengths in the required volumes.



    Deep red in the graphic is what actually hits/impinge the surface. Blue/red as summerthyme mentioned does cover the majority of what's needed. I would add some UV and green, but the majority of plants react more to the blue/green.
    Facts?? We don't need no stinkin facts...

  10. #10
    I've been following stanB's thread Summer. Rayku... question... does the color of light change throughout the growing season? Say leaning more red/blue in the spring... green/blue/stronger UV in the mid-late summer? For example. It could be reversed for all I know.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
    Location
    Swimming in sea quarks
    Posts
    3,767
    Quote Originally Posted by Sacajawea View Post
    I've been following stanB's thread Summer. Rayku... question... does the color of light change throughout the growing season? Say leaning more red/blue in the spring... green/blue/stronger UV in the mid-late summer? For example. It could be reversed for all I know.
    The color of light never changes, what gets diffraction/refraction/scattered does. The tilt of the earth that gives us summer and winter changes all that as the sun is positioned higher and lower on the horizon. In the summer, the sun is closer to perpendicular to the surface which reduces the amount of atmosphere light has to travel through. In the winter it's further away due to the angle increasing and the inherent added atmosphere the light has to travel through.

    I'm not the agricultural brains of our outfit, Three of us took what the ag gurus specified to create the mechanical/electrical systems for our underground hydroponics systems. Why this is would be better answered by someone with a stronger ag background than mine, but it did in fact go red/blue mild UV in early growth transitioning into IR RGB UV in latter stage growth. It works. I can ask questions but any answers past that would be second hand as its not my expertise.
    Facts?? We don't need no stinkin facts...

  12. #12
    Nope, thanks anyway! That just confirmed what I thought I knew - LOL. These days, it pays to get a second opinion on that. I managed to learn a fair bit about light - both transmitted/reflected - as an artist.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts


NOTICE: Timebomb2000 is an Internet forum for discussion of world events and personal disaster preparation. Membership is by request only. The opinions posted do not necessarily represent those of TB2K Incorporated (the owner of this website), the staff or site host. Responsibility for the content of all posts rests solely with the Member making them. Neither TB2K Inc, the Staff nor the site host shall be liable for any content.

All original member content posted on this forum becomes the property of TB2K Inc. for archival and display purposes on the Timebomb2000 website venue. Said content may be removed or edited at staff discretion. The original authors retain all rights to their material outside of the Timebomb2000.com website venue. Publication of any original material from Timebomb2000.com on other websites or venues without permission from TB2K Inc. or the original author is expressly forbidden.



"Timebomb2000", "TB2K" and "Watching the World Tick Away" are Service Mark℠ TB2K, Inc. All Rights Reserved.