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The Grand Solar Minimum
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  1. #1041
    Quote Originally Posted by summerthyme View Post
    For a more realistic view of what we may be facing, i highly recommend 2 of Laura Ingallls Wilders books.... Farmer Boy, which is the story of her husband Almanzo's boyhood years in Malone NY, which is in the far northern corner up by the St.
    Lawrence river. Almanzo's father had more stock than he could fit into his barns, so he outwintered yearling cattle in an enclosed barnyard. Despite the protection from the wind this afforded, he had to go out almost every winter night withna stock whip, around midnight, and chase them around for 20 minutes or so to get their blood pumping, lest they freeze to death in their sleep. Thermometers went down to minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit, and sometimes the mercury froze in the bulb when temperatures dropped even lower!

    The other book is The Long Winter, and I find it fascinating that the Indians warned that every 20 years, there would be a very hard winter, but every third cycle (IIRC) the winter would be exceptionally hard. It sounds like they were observing the effects of the sunspot cycle!

    Had to look that book up,


    The Long Winter is an autobiographical children's novel written by Laura Ingalls Wilder and published in 1940, the sixth of nine books in her Little House series. It is set in southeastern Dakota Territory during the severe winter of 1880–1881, when she turned 14 years old. UNQUOTE.

    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  2. #1042
    I will watch the video - I have it marked to do so but I may need to wait until tomorrow - I had mentioned the SouthWest Heat/Drought issue (I think I did) it more or less seems to go with the cooler periods; the cold seems to be mostly in the Northern and Southern Areas of the Planet but some places do get warmer.

    I think the volcano issue during solar minimums/cooling periods is somewhat still a chicken/egg question; I mean it is totally understood that a large eruption of a certain type (several types) can cool the planet for several years; but there also seems to be a weird connection between a lack of sunspots and more eruptions but it isn't always clear which one is coming first.

    This is of course, hard to know for sure because while we have some really good records of volcanic eruptions going back hundreds of thousands of years in some cases (ice cores) sunspots have only been recorded for a few hundred years even counting a few from the Chinese that are earlier than the European (if I recall correctly).

    But science does know the basic cooling and heating cycles for the last hundred thousand years or so (ice cores again) and can tell eruptions from the ash left in them (often even determining where it came from).

    The weather this year certainly fits the early 14th century pattern; and not every year in the 14th through 19th centuries was cool either; even during the worst of the cold periods there were some pretty hot Summers and the occasional mild Winter - it is an overall thing with growing seasons, droughts and floods were the biggest markers of change that most people notice.
    expatriate Californian living in rural Ireland with husband, dogs, horses. garden and many, many cats

  3. #1043

    Chart shows shift in jet streams giving some explanation why the American Southwest is hot and arid.

    von Koehler
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  4. #1044

    SEPTEMBER 23, 2018

    Rainfall records are tumbling across Texas.

    Reduced Solar Output and an increase in Galactic Cosmic Rays to blame.

    16.82 inches of rain in San Antonio this month has made September 2018 its wettest September in recorded history.

    Dallas-Fort Worth has received 4x its average Sept rainfall amount, with daily, weekly and monthly totals breaking 1932 records.

    A record 14 inches of rain fell in 24hrs Friday at the Oklahoma Climatological Survey’s site in Fittstown.

    24 hour records are falling elsewhere too: Bonham received 8.85 inches, McKinney recorded 8.71 inches. Cedar Hill saw 6.93 inches. Mountain Creek Lake recorded 6.68 inches.

    “It’s possible, though there’s no documentation for it, that parts of Irving could have picked up as much as 10 inches,” weather service forecaster Lee Carlaw said.

    White Rock Creek crested at 91.47 feet at Greenville Avenue, setting a record, according to the National Weather Service in Fort Worth.

    The Trinity River and Rowlett Creek also swelled Saturday morning, each reaching heights of more than 30 feet, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

    More rain is in the forecast over the weekend and into next week when a cold front is expected to blow in, adding to what’s already been a record-setting month for Texas.


    Galactic Cosmic Rays are a mixture of high-energy photons and sub-atomic particles accelerated toward Earth by supernova explosions and other violent events in the cosmos.

    Cosmic rays hitting Earth’s atmosphere create aerosols which, in turn, seed clouds.

    This makes cosmic rays an important player in our weather and climate.

    Recent balloon flights by and Earth to Sky Calculus show that cosmic rays are intensifying:

    During solar minimum, like the one we’re entering now, the sun’s magnetic field weakens and the outward pressure of the solar wind decreases.

    This allows more cosmic rays from deep space to penetrate our planet’s atmosphere:

    With this being a Grand Solar Minimum we’re entering, Galactic Cosmic Rays should be off the charts — that’s exactly what we’re seeing:

    And there’s another major implication to increased cloud cover:

    “Clouds are the Earth’s sunshade, and if cloud cover changes for any reason, you have global warming — or global cooling,” Dr. Roy Spencer.

    The upshot of our descent into this next Grand Solar Minimum –and resulting increase in GCRs– will be a cooling of the planet.

    Latest predictions have us falling as much 2C below baseline.
    [If temperatures drop 2 degrees Centigrade we will be in a world of hurt. Literally. von Koehler]

    We’re on our way down.

    GSM = influx of Cosmic Rays = increased Cloud Nucleation = increased precipitation + global cooling

    Last edited by von Koehler; Yesterday at 08:42 AM.
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  5. #1045
    [This landmark scientific paper is presented to show the connection between cosmic rays and increased precipitation. Rest is available at link; requires some higher mathematics to understand. von Koehler]

    Published: 19 December 2017

    Increased ionization supports growth of aerosols into cloud condensation nuclei

    H. Svensmark, M. B. Enghoff, N. J. Shaviv & J. Svensmark
    Nature Communicationsvolume 8, Article number: 2199 (2017) | Download Citation

    Ions produced by cosmic rays have been thought to influence aerosols and clouds. In this study, the effect of ionization on the growth of aerosols into cloud condensation nuclei is investigated theoretically and experimentally. We show that the mass-flux of small ions can constitute an important addition to the growth caused by condensation of neutral molecules. Under atmospheric conditions the growth from ions can constitute several percent of the neutral growth. We performed experimental studies which quantify the effect of ions on the growth of aerosols between nucleation and sizes >20 nm and find good agreement with theory. Ion-induced condensation should be of importance not just in Earth’s present day atmosphere for the growth of aerosols into cloud condensation nuclei under pristine marine conditions, but also under elevated atmospheric ionization caused by increased supernova activity.

    Clouds are a fundamental part of the terrestrial energy budget, and any process that can cause systematic changes in cloud micro-physics is of general interest. To form a cloud droplet, water vapor needs to condense to aerosols acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) of sizes of at least 50–100 nm1, and changes in the number of CCN will influence the cloud microphysics2, 3. One process that has been pursued is driven by ionization caused by cosmic rays, which has been suggested to be of importance by influencing the density of CCN in the atmosphere and thereby Earth’s cloud cover4,5,6,7. Support for this idea came from experiments, which demonstrated that ions significantly amplify the nucleation rate of small aerosols (≈1.7 nm)8, 9. However, to affect cloud properties, any change in small aerosols needs to propagate to CCN sizes 50–100 nm, but such changes were subsequently found by numerical modeling to be too small to affect clouds3, 10, 11. The proposed explanation for this deficit is that additional aerosols reduce the concentration of the gases from which the particles grow, and a slower growth increases the probability of smaller aerosols being lost to pre-existing aerosols. This has lead to the conclusion that no significant link between cosmic rays and clouds exists in Earth’s atmosphere.

    This conclusion stands in stark contrast to a recent experiment demonstrating that when excess ions are present in the experimental volume, all extra nucleated aerosols can grow to CCN sizes12. But without excess ions in the experimental volume, any extra small aerosols (3 nm) are lost before reaching CCN sizes, in accordance with the above mentioned model results. The conjecture was that an unknown mechanism is operating, whereby ions facilitate the growth and formation of CCN. Additional evidence comes from atmospheric observations of sudden decreases in cosmic rays during solar eruptions in which a subsequent response is observed in aerosols and clouds6, 7. Again, this is in agreement with a mechanism by which a change in ionization translates into a change in CCN number density. However, the nature of this micro-physical link has been elusive.

    In this work we demonstrate, theoretically and experimentally, the presence of an ion mechanism, relevant under atmospheric conditions, where variations in the ion density enhance the growth rate from condensation nuclei (≈1.7 nm) to CCN. It is found that an increase in ionization results in a faster aerosol growth, which lowers the probability for the growing aerosol to be lost to existing particles, and more aerosols can survive to CCN sizes. It is argued that the mechanism is significant under present atmospheric conditions and even more so during prehistoric elevated ionization caused by a nearby supernova. The mechanism could therefore be a natural explanation for the observed correlations between past climate variations and cosmic rays, modulated by either solar activity13,14,15,16,17 or caused by supernova activity in the solar neighborhood on very long time scales where the mechanism will be of profound importance18,19,20.
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  6. #1046

    1:37 minutes

    Letusan Anak Gunung Krakatau terkini 22 Sept 2018

    Erupted 45 times in last 24 hours.
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  7. #1047
    [Predicted snowfall totals by 4 Oct.]
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  8. #1048
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  9. #1049

    Recent snow photos plus an early October storm?

    by Meteorologist Joel Gratz


    Western Canada continued to receive high-elevation snow during the past week, and this trend should hold for the next week as well. Looking ahead to early October, there are hints that many areas of the western United States could see their first snow accumulations of the season.

    Short Term Forecast

    Looking at snowy scenes never gets old, so let’s check out a few more from this week.

    Marmot Basin in Alberta Canada. Hey, winter!

    Revelstoke in British Columbia, Canada. A solid coating of snow up high.

    These snowy webcam images are exciting, though it's not unusual to see snow blanket the higher mountains of western North America in late fall. For proof, look at these pictures from last year at this time (September 23, 2017) following a significant storm that dropped snow on the central and northern Rockies.

    Looking ahead to the next 10 days, will we see a repeat of last year with widespread snow over the United States? Nope.

    The temperature forecast for the five days from September 23-27 shows that the best chance for colder-than-average temperatures will be near and east of the divide over the Northern Rockies.

    And the temperature forecast for the following five days from September 28 to October 2 shows that the same pattern will continue, and perhaps become even stronger, with readings of 10C / 18F colder than average over the plains of Canada and eastern Montana.

    Since the snow often follows the cold air, it’s no surprise that the 10-day snow forecast (below) shows that the best chance for snow will be near and east of the divide over Canada and northern Montana.

    Extended Forecast

    The 10-15 forecast, out to October 3-7, is where things might be a bit more interesting for the western United States.

    The temperature forecast below, which is created from an average of 51 models, shows cold air hanging on near and east of the divide, AND is shows cooler-than-average temperatures over the western United States.

    This is a reasonably strong hint that we might see a storm or two over the western US during the first 10 days of October. And if the timing of the precipitation coincides with the cooler air, many mountains could see a coating of snow over the higher elevations.
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  10. #1050

    Extreme Weather


    SEPTEMBER 24, 2018

    An Arctic cold front is set to funnel frigid air over the UK and much of mainland Europe Monday night, bringing temps down to as much as 12C below average.

    The UK saw highs of between 10C to 16C on Monday, low for the this time of the year, but BBC Weather’s Carol Kirkwood warned, “This evening and overnight under the clear skies temperatures will drop like a rock.”

    England and Wales are expected to remain just above freezing, though widespread frosts are possible.

    Scotland could record lows of as much as -3C and see some snow, adding to the flurries over the weekend.
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  11. #1051
    Yep, it did get cold last night and isn't too warm right now - supposedly it will be around 70 in the afternoon by Wednesday but still very cold at night.

    I've spent most of the day on the sofa with a wool sweater (the one I just knit) a handwoven blanket, a space heater and between 3 and 5 cats either on my lap or beside me on the blanket.

    I think this is going to be a long Winter...
    expatriate Californian living in rural Ireland with husband, dogs, horses. garden and many, many cats


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