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The Grand Solar Minimum
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  1. #1281
    Join Date
    Oct 2001
    Location
    Green County, Kentucky
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    9,729
    I understand if you feel you can't care for a dog anymore, but do realize that livestock guardian dogs are MEANT to live outdoors -- mine never comes in the house (though she did fine staying in motel rooms on our move out here from Oregon). And they don't need a great deal of attention or exercise, just good fences around the yard.

    IMO, some kind of dog is absolutely essential. I have a little Rat Terrier who (usually) sleeps in my room at night; she alerts at anything unusual (woke my visiting daughter up the other night when she was here -- turned out there was a tornado warning, and one passed within a mile of our house). The big dog keeps the poultry and the goats safe from predators, and the garden somewhat, too. She sleeps either under one of the chicken coops that is raised up, or in the hay section of the barn, has a heavy coat and cold weather doesn't bother her a bit though she's collected quite a lot of burdock.

    My yard is turning into a jungle, too. I plan for it to be a jungle, actually, as I gradually plant a permaculture food forest here. Still need to try to keep parts of it mowed, but I'm going to get a couple of pairs of geese next year and pen them on the parts that need to be short grass.

    The stuff I'm planting here isn't just for me, though (if the Lord doesn't return before then) I can expect to live another thirty years or more -- my family tends to be long-lived. But both of my older daughters live north of us; one is in Ohio and the other is in New Hampshire. I'm thinking that if things get too bad farther north, they will be able to come here with their families. Even if our current growing zone 6b become growing zone 3 or 4, we've spent enough time in the Interior of Alaska (growing zone 1 or 2 at best) that I think we can manage here. But I am choosing to plant stuff that is much more cold-hardy than necessary in this growing zone, except for the fig tree I picked up at the feed store a few weeks ago, LOL!

    Kathleen
    Behold, these are the mere edges of His ways, and how small a whisper we hear of Him.
    Job 26:14

    wickr ID freeholder45

  2. #1282
    Kathleen, the reason I can't care for a dog any more isn't because I can't bring food and water outside to it and do the few things even an outside dog needs. An old adoptee would need some bonding time that I might not be able to give consistently, and I would not be able to handle a puppy through the training stage of probably the first two years. My last dog played a guinea and a couple of hens to death before she outgrew that stage and she never did stop digging holes.

    If I do get more chickens next spring, I will probably get one of the 10'x10' chain link kennels. I asked about them at my feed store this morning, and I can afford one. I would put a top on it and wrap the whole thing with chicken wire which will keep even squirrels and all but small snakes out. I would tarp the entire north half of it and the south half would be open to sunshine. This would be good enough for about ten hens and a rooster, and I could easily make a small pen for chicks if any of the hens decided to go broody. A small pen would be hardware cloth so tiny new chicks couldn't escape.

  3. #1283
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    East Central Texas
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    1,854
    Quote Originally Posted by Martinhouse View Post
    TxGal, how big is your chicken pen? ............(snip) Well, I suppose this is too much for this thread but it IS related to my prepping for colder weather along with my lessening ability to do things, especially if it's going to be a lot colder most of the time.
    Ours is 10' long by 5' wide by 6' high. It was a complete kennel in a box from Tractor Supply, surprisingly easy to hook together. This one does not have bottom or top panels. If we did not lock our chickens up at night, we'd put wire on the floor and the top. I don't think chicken wire is strong enough, though, raccoons and possums can chew through that easily. Hardware cloth or welded wire is stronger. I 'think' ours cost around $200 on sale, they didn't have it on line to double check. I think connecting two kennels would be possible, too. As we all age, being able to enter the chicken house/runs without bending over is much appreciated. In colder weather, even more so!

    I think the sq ft per bird varies by size. Right now we're doing 18 Bantams (a first for us), and we have the kennel, the shed house, and a small older covered run off the house on another side.

    With the GSM coming into play, I'm thankful we have our chicken shed house and main kennel facing the south side. The covered side run is off the east side, but we put plywood on the north side in winter. Cold front came in here overnight, and we're getting stiff north winds. Forecasters say we'll be in the 30s next week, hard freeze possible. Earliest freeze should be after Thanksgiving, with later more normal. We've been anything but normal this year.

  4. #1284
    First snow of the season is coating everything, with a "winter weather advisory" for 5-7" of "lake effect" snow tomorrow. Oh, goody! Certainly not unknown for this time of year, but since we've been gaving incessant rains, the idea of inches of snow on top of inches of mud...ugh! I'm never going to get and keep these floors clean!

    Martinhouse... you know your own limits, but there *are* definitely ways around some of the issues you mention in terms of having a good dog. And for your situation, one of the LGD breeds would really be the only type i would suggest. They are bred to bond *with the livestock*, not the humans. And they are happier outside than in. Most other breeds have been bred to cooperate and live closely with humans, and simply aren't happy kept outdoors. (The exceptions are dogs on farms where the humans spend more time in the barns and fields than the house, and hunting hounds, which are generally kept in kennels)

    Anyway... the food and water are awfully simple to solve, at least for most of the year. A float waterer can be connected to a garden hose, and mounted on a board that can then be bolted or wired to the chainlink. It obviously can only be left hooked up in non-freezing weather, but even here in the frozen north, that means I don't have to carry water for 7 months out of the year.

    And for food, dry kibble in a covered "self feeder " would only require being refilled periodically. Something like this...

    https://www.amazon.com/Bergan-11899-...og+self+feeder

    A LGD would protect his food from anything wanting to steal it, just like he protects the livestock. While I haven't owned one, I suspect they would also keep pests out of the gardens and orchard, with a bit of encouragement.

    But i understand completely how our bodies betray us as we get older, and there comes a time when they say "no!" That is when it's nice (but not always possible) to have family somewhat close by, or lacking that, a teenager or two who is willing to work once in awhile for some spending money. The post-WWII diaspora, with families moving far away from their hometowns in search of better jobs, etc, did much to weaken the familial bonds and made the later lives of many much more difficult.

    Summerthyme

  5. #1285
    TxGal, I haven't even had a frost yet and we're getting a very hard freeze tonight. Down to 24 with a cold week and then one night down to 22 next week.

    Your cold front is blowing in here right now. There is an icy wind from the north and I'm sure glad the sun is shining!

    Two of the ten by ten kennels I saw this morning would give me a ten by thirty footer with two doors. Not sure I wan to spend $500 plus a top of some sort on chickens I may not live to see laying. Ten by ten will have to do, if I decide to do this.

  6. #1286
    Join Date
    Oct 2001
    Location
    Green County, Kentucky
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    Quote Originally Posted by Martinhouse View Post
    TxGal, I haven't even had a frost yet and we're getting a very hard freeze tonight. Down to 24 with a cold week and then one night down to 22 next week.

    Your cold front is blowing in here right now. There is an icy wind from the north and I'm sure glad the sun is shining!

    Two of the ten by ten kennels I saw this morning would give me a ten by thirty footer with two doors. Not sure I wan to spend $500 plus a top of some sort on chickens I may not live to see laying. Ten by ten will have to do, if I decide to do this.
    A ten by ten kennel is big enough for several chickens -- certainly big enough for a flock meant to provide eggs for one person. You could easily keep a dozen birds in a space that size.

    Kathleen
    Behold, these are the mere edges of His ways, and how small a whisper we hear of Him.
    Job 26:14

    wickr ID freeholder45

  7. #1287
    Summerthyme, I can feed ad water a dog right outside my back porch and I have a fenced yard except for huge maple that blew down onto the fence two years ago and a break in another place where some idiot came halfway up my driveway and plowed through fence and bushes. (Hit and run and left behind a headlight assembly!) My neighbor says he'll try to patch up this broken place, but his name has never been Speedy, so we'll see.

    My trouble with a dog is I'd want an older one because I have not the strength or lung power to train and keep up with a puppy. And I won't put a lonely old dog in my yard when I'm not out there enough to form a good bond with her. Would have to be a female because I do have some low open containers and berry bushes which I'd NOT want peed on.

    There are no youngsters in my area that I could hire to mow and do some pruning. None at all. The guy who used to do this is now in worse shape than I am. One more summer and it would take a bush hog to clean it up. Privet moved into the area some time back and it is simply horrible. When my brother comes to visit from Iowa, sometimes he mows my parking area and behind my house where I have my chicken pen, greenhouse and my container garden. I've put in lots of patio block sidewalks which I can weed sitting down.

    I've been able to do most things for myself almost all of my life and right now I guess my biggest problem is not wanting to face the fact that I just can't do all those thing any more. Used to be if I ran out of daylight, I could do things on the roof with a flashlight in my teeth, figuratively speaking. Now, even in daylight I have to wait for a day when my legs don't have the weakies and then I call someone and tell them I'm going up there and also call and let them know when I'm safely back down. If I do it without calling, I get scolded.

    I still do what I can, but as I've read somewhere, "Old age ain't for sissies"!

  8. #1288
    TxGal, a 10x10 kennel with a sturdy top would be perfect for me. I'd put hardware cloth around the bottom, maybe two feet up, to contain chicks and also to contain all the leaves as they get scratched into compost by the birds in the fall and winter. Ten hens and a rooster would be lovely. Patio blocks around the perimeter, both inside and outside, would prevent anything digging in or out. I can still do patio blocks if I use my wagon.

    Now, if anyone can tell me a surefire way to trap a groundhog, I'll be all set! Oh, and how to rig a live trap so the damned raccoons have to step on the damned trigger pedal to get the bait! (I usually feel like crying when I drive past road kill. This morning when I saw a dead raccoon on the road, I just raised my eyes briefly and whispered "thank you".

  9. #1289
    If you havent, do a bit of research on the Livestock Guardian breeds. These dogs *don't* generally make good pets, at leadt in the way most people think of dogs... they are very independent, "obedience optional" types. Older ones often end up being put down at shelters, especially if they were working dogs, simply because they aren't going to be that snuggly, Velcro "friend" most people want when they look for a dog.

    Your situation might be perfect for an older LGD who isn't up to patrolling a square mile of land anymore, but woukd certainly be able to kerp your chickens and rabbits safe. And for any dog from one of those breeds, it would be far better than living in a kennel for the rest of their lives, if they're "lucky" enough to be in a "no kill" shelter. That has to be hell on earth for those breeds.

    I hear you on the lack of available help... if it wasn't for our Amish neighbors, and their willingness to trade labor for hay and other farm products (they're raising 12 kids on 2 acres, and it just isn't enough space to grow all their own food, much less hay for the cow and horses), we'd be in tough shape for hired help. And when we did have "English" high school kids to help, it was scary... most of them were so clueless as to be dangerous, they all needed constant supervision, and I was often frustrated that I, as a woman in my 50's, was stronger than most of the supposed "young men"!

    Again, the government nanny state works against community... back before food stamps and welfare, you could find teens willing to help, often even in exchange for food. Not these days!

    Oh, and Kathleen is correct... a 10x10 kennel is plenty big for half a dozen hens and a roo... that's 100 square feet. It should be adequate for 10 birds.

    Summerthyme

  10. #1290

    Now, if anyone can tell me a surefire way to trap a groundhog, I'll be all set! Oh, and how to rig a live trap so the damned raccoons have to step on the damned trigger pedal to get the bait! (I usually feel like crying when I drive past road kill. This morning when I saw a dead raccoon on the road, I just raised my eyes briefly and whispered "thank you".
    LOL! I hear you! Woodchucks (what we call groundhogs) are simple. Buy a couple of snares (http://www.snareshop.com is a good source) and set snares over each hole entrance. It's simple, requires no physical strength (beyond hammering in a stake to anchor the snare to if there us no convenient tree or fencepost) and because the animals travel clear, well defined paths, it's easy to catch them. Remember that each tunnel has 2 openings... the obvious one where they dug out all the dirt, and the "stealth exit" which is less obvious... it might take some hunting around by walking in circles away from the main entrance, but it's rarely more than 10 yards away. Most times, you'll find them dead in the snare... however, i have caught half-grown ones around the body... a .22 solves that problem if it occurs.

    Raccoons are tougher, and if they escape a live trap once, they tend to be "trap wise". I think I'd try rigging a snare at the entrance to the box trap and see what happens...

    Summerthyme

  11. #1291
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    East Central Texas
    Posts
    1,854
    Martinhouse, you're getting great advice on the kennel idea above, that's great!

    On trapping raccoons and possums, we've had good results taking an old chicken bone and tying it on the inside above the trip plate and just a bit further back. We tie it tight against the 'ceiling', if you will, and with it being a little farther behind the trip plate, they almost always step on it. Haven't tried trapping groundhogs, but have had good luck trapping armadillos, which are difficult to trap.

    We are seeing a huge number of raccoons, possums, mice, and recently dispatched a skunk that was digging under our chicken house. We just had two huge flocks of geese flying overhead and heading south, I'd guess at least 50 in total. We had over 25 deer in a herd last week. The colder weather is coming on hard and early, and the animals are on the move.

    GSM is making it much harder for them, and they're going to be after crops, gardens, and poultry even harder than before. I think we'll all have to harden our places to keep our food sources ours.

  12. #1292
    Well, I've pretty much figured out that I will be getting that ten by ten kennel and I know where I'll be putting it. It will be right at a patio block walkway, so I won't have to change to boots each time I gather eggs or toss in weeds or scraps. I may even have all the other things I need already, for the top and around the bottom edges. My sister likes the idea of me not having to walk so far to take care of chickens. And that I'll once again have an "instant compost machine" for raked leaves.

    Thanks, all, for the great suggestions and advice!

  13. #1293
    TxGal, what bait do you use for armadillos? I have a nest of them under a big junk pile and in the summer they really plow up my yard. Kind of like a big giant mole. NOt to mention all the little shallow dug-up places here and there. I trapped one once in a trap I'd left set but not baited and it must have just blundered into it. I've thought a cracked egg might be good bait, as they are ground nest robbers, and I wouldn't be able to gather a tuna can full of worms this time of year.

  14. #1294
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    East Central Texas
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    Quote Originally Posted by Martinhouse View Post
    TxGal, what bait do you use for armadillos? I have a nest of them under a big junk pile and in the summer they really plow up my yard. Kind of like a big giant mole. NOt to mention all the little shallow dug-up places here and there. I trapped one once in a trap I'd left set but not baited and it must have just blundered into it. I've thought a cracked egg might be good bait, as they are ground nest robbers, and I wouldn't be able to gather a tuna can full of worms this time of year.
    We didn't bother them for the longest time, but we've got them tunneling next to our well pump and fence posts, of all things, in addition to the usual holes everywhere. With the ground being so unusually wet, the fence posts can get loose quickly thanks to the holes.

    Oddest thing, no bait at all. You likely caught the one you did by doing it the right way, without knowing it. Found a guy on line that is very successful at trapping them, and he says no bait will work. He suggested putting the trap so that it blocks their hole, and if you need to, put things by it to 'divert' the dilla towards it. We try to put the back end of the trap over the hole, with the opening outward.

    Last one we got was outside our house fence (board fence backed inside with field fence), so we moved a water trough next to it at an angle, leaving only one way to the hole. Caught it on the 2nd day, and a week later another. The trapper guy said they are very sensitive to smell, so we use gloves when we handle the traps. Also, he said they'll have several holes in an area as hiding places in addition to their main location. We'll kick dirt into them to see which one gets re-dug, and trap that one first. We've gotten 3 in the last few weeks.

    Hope this works for you, with the temps dropping so quickly the last thing we want to do is to be resetting fence posts!

  15. #1295
    TxGal, thanks for the trapping hints. I think I caught that one because the trap was against the retaining wall that the animal must have hugged as it passed along behind my house. It just strolled right in. Guess the scent of my hands didn't bother it too much.

    IN about another half hour I'll be done with insulating my outdoor faucet and then I'll be in for the night. The cheap pillows sure are easy to work with compared to hefting heavy well-filled bags of leaves into a pile. I just have four more bags of pillows to place, cover the mound with a tarp, then weight it down with some T-post, patio blocks and big coild of the drained hose.

    It is still 80 in my greenhouse! (:

  16. #1296
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
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    East Central Texas
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    Quote Originally Posted by Martinhouse View Post
    TxGal, thanks for the trapping hints. I think I caught that one because the trap was against the retaining wall that the animal must have hugged as it passed along behind my house. It just strolled right in. Guess the scent of my hands didn't bother it too much.

    IN about another half hour I'll be done with insulating my outdoor faucet and then I'll be in for the night. The cheap pillows sure are easy to work with compared to hefting heavy well-filled bags of leaves into a pile. I just have four more bags of pillows to place, cover the mound with a tarp, then weight it down with some T-post, patio blocks and big coild of the drained hose.

    It is still 80 in my greenhouse! (:
    You're welcome! I think you're right about your catching one, and it's good your scent didn't bother it. We're right with ya on the insulating, we did our outdoor faucets last night, and we're bringing in extra hay that we'll stack on the north of our house under cover. Adds a bit of wind block/insulation effect.

    Hope your greenhouse holds it's temp. We're now going down to the 20s next week. Weather folks keep lowering our temps, I wonder if they don't quite understand what's going on.

    Great on your getting more chickens! Nothing quite like fresh eggs, they're a healthy quick meal and easy on the system usually.

  17. #1297
    We got down to 23 last night, so it's a good thing I finished winterizing the faucet and drained the garden hose. Sunday I'll probably bring a new bulb out to the pumphouse and put the new pipe wrap on the lines. Supposed to get to low 20s again Monday and Tuesday night. It was 44 in the greenhouse but is already nearly 60 there because the sun is shining.

    I finally turned on my space heater this morning. It was 55 in the kitchen where I spend my time. This is the latest I've ever started using the heater. So far my hot water pots have been enough, along with warmer clothes.

  18. #1298
    Will also be cooking a turkey today and possibly dehydrating broccoli leaves, so will be adding more heat to the kitchen.

    If this coming winter really is colder than usual, I may have to use two space heaters. $$$$$ UGH!

    But I've saved a lot of my canning for cold weather and that really warms up the kitchen.

    My brother is bringing me his ten-season series of Stargate this month, so I'll have something to keep me occupied later on when I'm sitting all bundled up with my knitting.

    I hate winter and cold weather so I hope this one flies by as fast as the past month has done for me. I'm still feeling like I was cheated out of summer this year. It just didn't get hot enough for long enough for me, and now it's cold again. Good thing I'm from Minnesota and know how to function in super cold weather!

  19. #1299
    Join Date
    Oct 2001
    Location
    Green County, Kentucky
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    9,729
    There's a hole (deliberately made) in the foundation of this house, next to the kitchen sink plumbing (it's the only access to the crawl space, and the only way to get at all the plumbing under the house). It's oddly shaped, and I'd been trying to figure out the best way to cover and insulate it. Finally decided that a couple of bales of hay, snugged up against the building, should do the trick. Next spring I'll just use them for mulch around the fruit trees I'll be planting. I just came in from doing that, and can already tell the difference in the kitchen, without that cold air blowing up from under the sink.

    Kathleen
    Behold, these are the mere edges of His ways, and how small a whisper we hear of Him.
    Job 26:14

    wickr ID freeholder45

  20. #1300
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/q32bnclqff...-2032.pdf?dl=0

    November Exact Time line for the Grand Solar Minimum & Global Food Shortages

    Conclusion:

    All forecasts point to substantial changes in society, economy, population and food availability within ten years. So the question is how will the changes unfold over these ten years? On average global grain staples are down 10% except soy and corn vs 2016-2017 yields due to extremes on either side of the planting/harvest seasons. This 90% remaining, how will it disappear, 10% per year until 2028 leaving the planet to survive on a fraction of what is produced now?When will the global economy contract as people spend more on food, diverting cash flow from the consumer spending economy?How many people need to become aware and start draining their retirement funds/stocks and bank accounts to prepare before the credit and fractional reserve system locks up?

    [Due to formatting issues and blocked images, this post was especially difficult to just copy and paste. If you are interested in The Solar Minimum, it's a excellent summary of the current state of knowledge.]

    more:

    QUOTE:

    Professor Valentina Zharkova

    During the week Professor Valentina Zharkova presented at the Global Warming Policy Forum her findings The Solar Magnet Field and the Terrestrial Climate. This is a noteworthy event because she has been incredibly silent on her team’s findings using magnetic fields in layers of the Sun and the Sun’s dynamo to predict how intense the Eddy Grand Solar Minimum will be and how fast our Earth will react to electromagnetic changes from decreasing output from our star. Until now. Prediction of Solar Activity from Solar Background Magnetic Field Variations in Cycles 21-23 showed a decline through a double peak starting 2020-2035, where she declined to go further into real world effects on our societies. This changed during the GWPF presentation where she used phrases “global food shortages from 2028-2032” and “Super Grand Minima”and the Sun’s magnetic field is the main reason for temperature drops on Earth by allowing in more cosmic rays, not Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) decreases.

    UNQUOTE.

    To put this into perspective when her first paper came out, the global cooling community was very excited by her findings. But than she seemed to backslide on her findings or minimize its effects on humanity. She was asked about this at her recent speech. She replied that the the research wasn't finished before but mainly because she had no desire being an object of attacks.

    Now she feels that the research has matured and ready to be put to the test. To do so, the scientific method requires her to publish her research and make a falsifiable prediction. With her latest paper, she has done just that.

    Because of its importance, and the fact I have cooled down somewhat, I thought it important to bring her work here.

    von Koehler
    Last edited by von Koehler; 11-11-2018 at 02:31 PM.
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  21. #1301
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    Quote Originally Posted by von Koehler View Post
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/q32bnclqff...-2032.pdf?dl=0

    November Exact Time line for the Grand Solar Minimum & Global Food Shortages

    Conclusion:

    All forecasts point to substantial changes in society, economy, population and food availability within ten years. So the question is how will the changes unfold over these ten years? On average global grain staples are down 10% except soy and corn vs 2016-2017 yields due to extremes on either side of the planting/harvest seasons. This 90% remaining, how will it disappear, 10% per year until 2028 leaving the planet to survive on a fraction of what is produced now?When will the global economy contract as people spend more on food, diverting cash flow from the consumer spending economy?How many people need to become aware and start draining their retirement funds/stocks and bank accounts to prepare before the credit and fractional reserve system locks up?
    Thank you for posting this, von Koehler. Have to admit, while reading it I got quite a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach. Due to our unseasonably cold weather, the last few days I've been walking around mumbling 'this isn't normal' and now they're adding the possibility of wintry mix for tomorrow.

    Then there are articles this morning on Felix's website about Western Australia losing a huge chunk of their vineyards and Pashmir suffering a devastating loss to their apple orchards. It's world-wide, and it would seem prudent to start laying in a sizeable supply of grains for home use, before more people catch on and the prices increase or products become unavailable. Prices are already up, and they will continue to rise as more crop failures occur.

    This is serious, folks.

  22. #1302
    Quote Originally Posted by Martinhouse View Post
    Kathleen, the reason I can't care for a dog any more isn't because I can't bring food and water outside to it and do the few things even an outside dog needs. An old adoptee would need some bonding time that I might not be able to give consistently, and I would not be able to handle a puppy through the training stage of probably the first two years. My last dog played a guinea and a couple of hens to death before she outgrew that stage and she never did stop digging holes.

    If I do get more chickens next spring, I will probably get one of the 10'x10' chain link kennels. I asked about them at my feed store this morning, and I can afford one. I would put a top on it and wrap the whole thing with chicken wire which will keep even squirrels and all but small snakes out. I would tarp the entire north half of it and the south half would be open to sunshine. This would be good enough for about ten hens and a rooster, and I could easily make a small pen for chicks if any of the hens decided to go broody. A small pen would be hardware cloth so tiny new chicks couldn't escape.
    If Racoons are a problem where you are, use Rabbit Wire. Coons go through chicken wire easily. Also dig a trench and put a barrier around the enclosure to prevent digging. Think large rocks or thick flat metal. I kept a tuna can I tossed in a live trap last year. The thing got shredded. The trap is no longer usable as such.
    No one ever rescues an old dog. They lay in a cage until they die. PLEASE save one. None of us wants to die cold and alone... --Dennis Olson

    Mo is my One.

  23. #1303
    Thanks for that link, von Koehler. It's a good summary. Except I disagree with his example of grain production going down 10% per year until 2028. I believe it will accelerate and be much worse a lot sooner. This weather isn't going to get worse by 10% each year! It takes only one bad event to totally wipe out a whole season's crop in ONE year!

    I lost my first reply to this, but it pretty much echoed that of TxGal. And the sick feeling in my stomach is still there. I'd also read the new posts on Robert Felix's site and the sick feeling had already set in by the time I read this post here on our GSM thread.

  24. #1304
    I'm afraid that the next article like the one I just read at that link is going to change me from feeling sick to feeling just plain scared!

    And I think that even though I have no chickens right now, I am going to top off all of my feed cans while it is still available and affordable. I'll include a fair amount of chick starter, too. And this had given me an idea. I have a couple of cans of old feed that are no good and I can't handle the effort of disposing of the contents. If I open them only at night when birds won't get to them, maybe the raccoons will start eating the stuff. I have old tuna that I intended to discard. I could mix that into the top of the old feed and maybe a lot would be eaten by morning.

    Worth a try, anyway, and would free up some trash cans for storing some newer feed. If it makes the raccoons sick, so much the better!

  25. #1305
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    Quote Originally Posted by Martinhouse View Post
    This weather isn't going to get worse by 10% each year! It takes only one bad event to totally wipe out a whole season's crop in ONE year!
    Exactly, this is 100% correct! Local farmers have are having a bad cotton crop this year, it made the news a few days ago. Crops were far less than normal, and due to all the rainfall they haven't been able to get in with harvesting equipment to get what's left. Major loss for them.

    And my DH just spotted a huge flock of robins a few minutes ago. They winter down this way. It's too soon. Since reading the article, I've spent the morning on the websites of Safecastle, Emergency Essentials, and Honeyville Grains.

  26. #1306
    Quote Originally Posted by Martinhouse View Post
    I'm afraid that the next article like the one I just read at that link is going to change me from feeling sick to feeling just plain scared!

    And I think that even though I have no chickens right now, I am going to top off all of my feed cans while it is still available and affordable. I'll include a fair amount of chick starter, too. And this had given me an idea. I have a couple of cans of old feed that are no good and I can't handle the effort of disposing of the contents. If I open them only at night when birds won't get to them, maybe the raccoons will start eating the stuff. I have old tuna that I intended to discard. I could mix that into the top of the old feed and maybe a lot would be eaten by morning.

    Worth a try, anyway, and would free up some trash cans for storing some newer feed. If it makes the raccoons sick, so much the better!
    Bad idea. You do not want a bunch of coons near your homestead expecting to get fed and then getting belligerent when they don't. Distemper, Rabies, females in heat, males in conquest of females, protecting the young. Not good. Coons won't be interested in seed, that isn't what they eat.

    Try sprouting some of that seed instead, It can be used for fodder for Rabbits, or eaten by you. If the weather holds, you may be able to grow some if you prepare a little patch of ground. It won't take much. If it isn't mildewed yet, it will sprout just fine. Maybe trade to a neighbor if none of this works for you.

    As for the sick feeling in the gut- I have faced what Nerthus and Skadi have in store for us. My people are from the cold country, and if I follow what my Ancestors did, with a touch of modern science thrown in, I will be fine.

    My sick gut comes from knowing that the "Elite" lied to me when I took my Earth Sciences degree and have been lying to the entire world since. They look forward to all the suffering that their wrong-headed science will bring the world and all the many deaths for many years. The Temple of Science, my most beloved place, has been defiled. Blood dancing should never be for scientists or earth stewards. Demonic and wrong on every level.

    I thank Nowski for my new book collection and many others for adding suggestions. I just finished "Not By Fire But By Ice by Robert Felix this week and ordered the sequel "MAGNETIC REVERSALS AND EVOLUTIONARY LEAPS: TRUE ORIGIN OF SPECIES" from Mr. Felix's main site. Much cheaper that way.

    Truth is hard and scary, but it is Genuine as the sunrise. I will take Truth over lies any time.
    No one ever rescues an old dog. They lay in a cage until they die. PLEASE save one. None of us wants to die cold and alone... --Dennis Olson

    Mo is my One.

  27. #1307
    Seeker, I had already thought about how using the feed to attract animals was exactly the wrong thing to do. I can't plant it as it is all buggy or moldy or both. I will have to use a mask and bag up small amounts at a time and put them in my trash for pick-up. There are six trashcans and each hold 150 pounds of feed. A darned shame, but what's done is done. Now I need to fix clean up the mess I allowed to happen so I can use those cans again.

    I got both of Felix's books when they first came out. I think he was the first one I heard to say that there will be fighting in the streets for food long before glaciers cover the land. Or something to that effect.

    I also have John Casey's second, which expands on his first. I think the titles are Cold Sun and Dark Winter. Another book I've recommended here before is Twilight of Abundance by David Archibald. It is easier to read than Casey's science, and gives a lot of information about the recent past little ice ages. If I could recommend just one book now, to spur people to act, it would be the Archibald book.

  28. #1308
    This is an unusual autumn here on the wet side of the Cascades in the Willamette Valley. In our area, we had less than 1/2 inch of rain in Oct. when we should have had just over 3 inches. In November, we usually get almost 7 inches of rain, but so far, less than 1/2 inch and none forecast until November 21st, and then only a 50% chance. As much as I am reveling in the sunshine that is usually rare this time of year, we need the rain. If we don't get enough rain this winter, it will be two winters and a summer with not enough rain. We are on a well like a lot of people around here. I can't imagine the worries of those in agriculture right now. I have seen a dry winter which takes a turn in late winter/early spring and make up for it all by the end of June. We'll see.

    https://www.drought.gov/drought/states/oregon
    Below are the US Drought monitor numbers for Oregon.
    Learn more about the US Drought Monitor

    D0 - Abnormally Dry
    Short-term dryness slowing planting, growth of crops
    Some lingering water deficits
    Pastures or crops not fully recovered
    2.4%
    100.0%

    D1 - Moderate Drought
    Some damage to crops, pastures
    Some water shortages developing
    Voluntary water-use restrictions requested
    11.4%
    97.6%

    D2 - Severe Drought
    Crop or pasture loss likely
    Water shortages common
    Water restrictions imposed
    51.9%
    86.2%

    D3 - Extreme Drought
    Major crop/pasture losses
    Widespread water shortages or restrictions
    34.3%
    34.3%

    D4 - Exceptional Drought
    Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses
    Shortages of water creating water emergencies

  29. #1309
    Heartbeat of the Sun from Principal Component Analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale
    V. V. Zharkova, S. J. Shepherd, E. Popova & S. I. Zharkov
    Scientific Reports volume 5, Article number: 15689 (2015) | Download Citation

    https://www.nature.com/articles/srep15689

    Abstract
    We derive two principal components (PCs) of temporal magnetic field variations over the solar cycles 21–24 from full disk magnetograms covering about 39% of data variance, with σ = 0.67. These PCs are attributed to two main magnetic waves travelling from the opposite hemispheres with close frequencies and increasing phase shift. Using symbolic regeression analysis we also derive mathematical formulae for these waves and calculate their summary curve which we show is linked to solar activity index. Extrapolation of the PCs backward for 800 years reveals the two 350-year grand cycles superimposed on 22 year-cycles with the features showing a remarkable resemblance to sunspot activity reported in the past including the Maunder and Dalton minimum. The summary curve calculated for the next millennium predicts further three grand cycles with the closest grand minimum occurring in the forthcoming cycles 26–27 with the two magnetic field waves separating into the opposite hemispheres leading to strongly reduced solar activity. These grand cycle variations are probed by α − Ω dynamo model with meridional circulation. Dynamo waves are found generated with close frequencies whose interaction leads to beating effects responsible for the grand cycles (350–400 years) superimposed on a standard 22 year cycle. This approach opens a new era in investigation and confident prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale.

    Introduction
    Solar activity is manifested in sunspot occurrence on the solar surface characterized by the smoothed sunspot numbers, which were selected as a proxy of solar activity (see, for example, the top plot in http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/bfly.gif). The sunspot numbers show quasi-regular maxima and minima of solar activity changing approximately every 11 years, with changing leading magnetic polarity in a given hemisphere (or 22 years for sunspots with the same polarity) reflecting changing magnetic activity of the Sun1.

    The longest direct observation of solar activity is the 400-year sunspot-number series, which depicts a dramatic contrast between the almost spotless Maunder and Dalton minima, and the period of very high activity in the most recent 5 cycles2,3, prior to cycle 24. Many observations indicate essential differences between the activity occurring in the opposite hemispheres for sunspots4 and for solar and heliospheric magnetic fields5.

    Prediction of a solar cycle through sunspot numbers has been used for decades as a way of testing accuracy of solar dynamo models, including processes providing production, transport and disintegration of the solar magnetic field. Cycles of magnetic activity are associated with the action of a dipole solar dynamo mechanism called ‘α − Ω dynamo’6. It assums the action of solar dynamo to occur in a single spherical shell, where twisting of the magnetic field lines (α-effect) and the magnetic field line stretching and wrapping around different parts of the Sun, owing to its differential rotation (Ω-effect), are acting together7,8.

    As a result, magnetic flux tubes (toroidal magnetic field) seen as sunspots are produced from the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) (poloidal magnetic field) by a joint action of differential rotation (Ω-effect) and radial shear (α-effect), while the conversion of toroidal magnetic field into poloidal field is governed by the convection in the rotating body of the Sun. The action of the Coriolis force on the expanding, rising (compressed, sinking) vortices results in a predominance of right-handed vortices in the Northern hemisphere and left-handed vortices in the Southern hemisphere leading to the equatorward migration of sunspots during a solar cycle duration visible as butterfly diagams (see http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/bfly.gif, the bottom plot).

    The last few decades were extremely fruitful in investigating the contribution of various mechanisms to the dynamo processes including the conditions for dynamo wave generation from the mean dynamo models with different properties of solar and stellar plasmas, as discussed in the recent reviews7,8.

    As usual, the understanding of solar activity is tested by the accuracy of its prediction. The records show that solar activity in the current cycle 24 is much lower than in the previous three cycles 21–23 revealing more than a two-year minimum period between cycles 23 and 24. This reduced activity in cycle 24 was very surprising because the previous five cycles were extremely active and sunspot productive forming the Modern Maximum2,3. Although the reduction of solar activity in cycle 24 led some authors to suggest that the Sun is on its way towards the Maunder Minimum of activity9.

    However, most predictions of solar activity by various methods, such as considering linear regression analysis10, neural network forecast11, or a modified flux-transport dynamo model calibrated with historical sunspot data from the middle-to-equator latitudes12, anticipated a much stronger cycle 2410. There were only a few predictions of the weaker cycle 2413 obtained with the high diffusivity Babcock-Leighton dynamo model applied to polar magnetic fields as a new proxy of solar activity. However, a dynamo model with a single wave was shown to be unable to produce reliable prediction of solar activity for longer than one solar cycle because of the short memory of the mean dynamo14.

    Consistent disagreement between the sunspot numbers, measured averaged sunpost numbers and the predicted ones by a large number of complex mathematical models for cycle 24, is undoubtedly the result, which emphasizes the importance of different physical processes occurring in solar dynamo and affecting complex observational appearance of sunspots on the surface.

    Results
    Two principal components as two dynamo waves
    In order to reduce dimensionality of these processes in observational data, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied15 to low-resolution full disk magnetograms captured by the Wilcox Solar Observatory16. This approach revealed a set of more than 8 independent components (ICs), which seem to appear in pairs15, with two principal components (PCs) covering about 39% of the variance of the whole magnetic field data, or standard deviation of σ = 0.67. The main pair of PCs is associated with two magnetic waves of opposite polarities attributed to the poloidal field produced by solar dynamo from a dipole source17.

    The two principal components (PCs) derived from solar background magnetic field (SBMF)15 (cycle 21–23) and predicted for cycle 24–26 are presented in Fig. 1 (the upper plot). For the first time PCA allowed us to detect, two magnetic waves in the SBMF15 and not a single one assumed in the mean dynamo models. These waves are found originating in the opposite hemispheres and travelling with an increasing phase shift to the Northern hemisphere in odd cycles and the Southern hemisphere in even cycles15. This can explain the well-observed North-South asymmetry in sunspot numbers, background magnetic field, flare occurences and so on (see Zharkov et al.4 and references therein) defining the active hemisphere for odd (North) and even (South) cycles.

    Figure 1: Top plot: the two principal components (PCs) of SBMF (blue and red curves) obtained for cycles 21–23 (historic data15) and predicted19 for cycles 24–26 with the Eqs. (2)–(3).
    Figure 1
    The dotted lines show the PCs derived from the data and the solid lines present the curves plotted from formulae 2 (blue) and 3 (red). The accuracy of fit of the both PC curves is better than 97%. The point A shows the current time. The cycle lengths (about 11 years) are marked at the minima by the vertical lines. The bottom plot: The summary PC derived from the two PCs above for the ‘historical’ (21–23) and predicted cycles (24–26) data. The dotted curve shows PCs derived from the data and the solid line - from the the solid curves from the top plot using formulae 2–3. The cycle lengths (about 11 years) are again marked by the vertical lines at the cycle minima. All the plots are a courtesy of Shepherd et al.19. © AAS. Reproduced with permission.

    Full size image
    The formation of magnetic flux tubes emerging on the solar surface as sunspots can be considered as a result of interaction in the solar interior of the two magnetic waves of the solar background magnetic field15 when their phase shift is not very large. These two magnetic waves of the poloidal field can account for the observed sunspot magnetic field18, or averaged sunspot numbers, after their amplitudes are added together into the summary wave (Fig. 1, bottom plot) and converted to the modulus curve by taking modulus of the summary curve19 (Fig. 2, bottom plot). The modulus curve plotted for cycles 21–23 in Fig. 2 (top plot) corresponds rather closely to the averaged sunspot numbers for cycles 21 and 22 while being noticeably lower than the sunspot curve for cycle 23, which anticipated the recently discovered sunspot calibration errors occurred in the past few decades20.

    Figure 2: Top plot: Comparison of the modulus summary curve (black curve) obtained from the summary curve inFig. 1 with averaged sunspot numbers (brown curve) and magnetic fiel (blue curve) for cycles 21–23.
    Figure 2
    Bottom plot: The modulus summary curve associated with the sunspot numbers derived for cycles 21–23 (plotted in the top plot) and calculated for cycles 24–26 using the mathematical formulae (2–3). The plots are a courtesy of Shepherd et al.19. © AAS. Reproduced with permission.

    Full size image
    The maximum (or double maximum for the waves with a larger phase shift of solar activity for a given cycle) coincides with the time when each of the waves approaches a maximum amplitude and the hemisphere where it happens becomes the most active one. This can account naturally for the north-south asymmetry of solar activity often reported in many cycles. Also the existence of two waves in the poloidal magnetic field instead of a single one, used in most prediction models, and the presence of a variable phase difference between the waves can naturally explain the difficulties in predicting sunspot activity on a scale longer than one solar cycle with a single dynamo wave14 since the sunspot activity is associated with the modulus summary curve of the two dynamo waves19 that is a derivative from these two waves.

    Mathematical description of the observed magnetic waves
    Amplitude and frequency variations of these waves, or PCs, over time are found using symbolic regression analysis21 with Euriqa software (see the Methods section for data analysis19). The wave amplitudes follow the product of two cosine functions (cos * cos), while the frequencies folow a nested function (cos (cos)) depicting the fact that the waves periodically change their frequency and phase with time. These formulae are used to extract the key parameters of the principal components of SBMF waves, which are, in turn, used for prediction of the overall level of solar activity for solar cycles 24–26 associated with the averaged sunspot numbers19. The accuracy of these formulae for prediction of the principal components is tested for cycle 24 showing the predicted curve fitting very closely (with an accuracy of about 97.5%) the PCs derived from the observations of SBMF and sunspot numbers19.

    For the forthcoming cycles 25 and 26 (Fig. 1) the two waves are found to travel between the hemispheres with decreasing amplitudes and increasing phase shift approaching nearly a half period in cycle 26. This leads, in fact, to a full separation of these waves in cycle 26 into the opposite hemispheres19. This separation reduces any possibility for wave interaction for this cycle that will result in significantly reduced amplitudes of the summary curve and, thus, in the strongly reduced solar activity in cycle 2619, or the next Maunder Minimum9 lasting in 3 cycles 25–27.

    Prediction of solar activity on millennium scale
    By far the most impressive achievement to-date of this approach is its ability to make very long term predictions of solar activity with high accuracy over the timescales of many centuries. The summary curve of the two principal components (magnetic waves) expressed by the formulae (2 and 3) in the Method of data analysis19 is calculated backwards and forwards for the period 1200–3200 years as shown in Fig. 3.

    Figure 3: The predicted summary wave (the sum of two principal components) calculated from 1200 to 3200 years from the ‘historical’ period (cycles 21–23) marked with a black oval.
    Figure 3
    The historical maxima and minima of the solar activity in the past are marked by the horizontal brackets.

    Full size image
    Remarkably, our current prediction of the summary curve backwards by 800 years shown in the left (from oval) part of Fig. 3, corresponds very closely to the sunspot data observed in the past 400 years as indicated by the brackets in Fig. 3, with the black oval marking the data used to derive Eq. (2) and (3) defining the wave variations. We predict correctly many features from the past, such as: 1) an increase in solar activity during the Medieval Warm period; 2) a clear decrease in the activity during the Little Ice Age, the Maunder Minimum and the Dalton Minimum; 3) an increase in solar activity during a modern maximum in 20th century.

    This visual correspondence in the features between the summary curve and the averaged sunspot numbers is most surprising, given the fact that the principal components are derived from the solar background magnetic field, and they are not linked directly to the sunspot numbers (see Methods for data analysis) besides the modulus summary curve derived from the principal components as shown in Fig. 2.

    The summary curve reveals a superposition of the amplitudes of the two dynamo waves, or a ‘beating’ effect creating two resulting waves: one of higher frequency (corresponding to a classic 22-year cycle) and a second wave of lower frequency (corresponding to a period of about 350–400 years), which modulates the amplitude of the first wave. It appears that this grand cycle has a variable length from 320 years (in 18–20 centuries) to 400 (in 2300–2700) predicted for the next millennium. Amplitudes in the shorter grand cycles are much higher than the amplitudes in the longer ones.

    This long-term ‘grand’ cycle was previously postulated in 1876 by Clough22 as a 300-year cycle superimposed on the 22 year cycle using the observations of aurorae, periods of grape harvests etc, which was later suggested to have a period of about 205 years23. These periods are close to those reported for the last 800 years in the summary curve plotted in Fig. 3 derived from the observed magnetic field variations.

    The spectacular accuracy of the historical fit in the past 800 years gave us the confidence to extrapolate the data into the future for a similar epoch of 1200 years (Fig. 3, right part of the curve) clearly showing, as expected, several 350–400-year grand cycles. We note, in particular, a decreasing activity for solar cycles 25 and 26 coinciding with the end of the previous 350–400-year grand cycle and then increase of the solar activity again from cycle 27 onwards as the start of a new grand cycle with an unusually weak cycle 30. Hence, cycles 25–27 marks a clear end of the modern grand period that can have significant implications for many aspects of solar activity in human lives including the current debate on climate change.

    Discussion
    Preliminary interpretation with the two layer α − Ω dynamo model
    Now let us attempt some preliminary interpretation of the two principal components, or two magnetic waves of solar poloidal field, generated by the solar dynamo in two different cells, similar to those derived by Zhao et al.24 from helioseismological observations (Fig. 4), in order to fit the background magnetic field observations (Figs 1 and 3). This can be achieved with the modified Parker’s non-linear two layers dynamo model for two dipoles17 with meridional circulation: in the layer 1 of the top cell and layer 2 of the bottom cell from Fig. 4 (see Methods section for the model description) tested for the interpretation of latitudinal waves in the solar background magnetic field for cycles 21–2317 derived with PCA15.

    Figure 4: The schematic dynamo model with two cells in the solar interior having the opposite meridional circulation as derived from HMI/SDO observations by Zhao et al.24.
    Figure 4
    © AAS. Reproduced with permission.

    Full size image
    The simulation results presenting the toroidal magnetic field are plotted in Fig. 5 (bottom plot) derived from the poloidal field (Fig. 1, top plot) for a period of six 11-year cycles using the dynamo equations (16–19) from Popova et al.17. The curves for poloidal (derived with PCA) and toroidal fields (simulated with the dynamo model) are found to have similar periods of oscillations whilst having opposite polarities (or having the phase shift of a half of the period), being in anti-phase every 11 years as previously reported4,25. The amplitude of generated toroidal magnetic field is plotted versus the dynamo number in Fig. 5 (top plot).

    Figure 5: Top plot: Dependence of the solar dynamo-number D = RαRΩ on a magnitude of the toroidal magnetic field (for detials of the parameters see the text).
    Figure 5
    Bottom plot: Variations of the toroidal magnetic field simulated for cycles 21–26 with two layer αΩ dynamo model (see Methods section) for the inner (red line) and upper (blue line) layers. One arbitrary unit corresponds to 1–1.5 Gauss (see text for details).

    Full size image
    Furthermore, in cycles 25–27 and, especially, in cycle 26, the toroidal magnetic field waves generated in these two layers become fully separated into the opposite hemispheres, similar to the two PC waves attributed to poloidal field (Fig. 1, top plot), that makes their interaction minimal. This will significantly reduce the occurance of sunspots in any hemisphere, that will result in a very small solar activity index for this cycle, resembling the Maunder Minimum occurred in the 17th century.

    Using the same dynamo parameters derived from the observed principal components for these 6 cycles, let us extend the calculation (see the Methods for details) to a longer period of two millennia shown in Fig. 6 for both poloidal (top plot) and toroidal (bottom plot) fields. According to the dynamo theory and analysis of observational data7,27 the generated toroidal field is much stronger than the poloidal. Although, exact values of the amplitudes of these fields in the solar convection zone are unknown and estimated from dynamo models. In our simple model the amplitude of toroidal field at the maximum is about 1000 Gauss, and of the poloidal one is of the order of several tens of Gauss. Hence, in Figs 5 and 6 one arbitrary unit approximately corresponds to 1–1.5 Gauss.

    Figure 6: Variations of the summary poloidal (top plot) and toroidal (bottom plot) magnetic fields simulated for 2000 years with the two layer αΩ-dynamo model (see Methods section) with the parameters derived from the two PCs fromFig. 1 using mathematical formulae (2–3).
    Figure 6
    One arbitrary unit corresponds to 1–1.5 Gauss (see text for details).

    Full size image
    It can be seen that variations of the model magnetic fields (Fig. 6) generated by the two dipole sources located in diferent layers reproduce the main features discovered in Fig. 3, e.g modulation of the amplitude of 22 year cycle by much slower oscillations of about 350 years, different duration (320–400) and amplitudes of different grand cycles. These variations are governed by different dynamo parameters as discussed below.

    Beating effect of two dynamo waves with close frequencies
    The waves generated by a dynamo mechanism in each layer are found to have similar (but not equal) frequencies caused by a difference in the meridional flow amplitudes in the two layers (Fig. 5, bottom plot). In order to reproduce the summary curve in Fig. 3 from the two original waves, or PCs, the dynamo waves generated in different layers with an amplitude A0 have to have close but not equal frequencies ω1 and ω2 (or periods varying between 20 and 24 years), similar to Gleissberg’s cycle7,26.

    The interference of these waves enabled by diffusion of the waves in the solar interior from the bottom to the top layer27 leads to formation of the resulting envelope of waves Y(t), or beating effect (see Fig. 3 and theoretical plots in Fig. 6), showing oscillations of a higher frequency within the envelope and those of the envelope itself with a lower frequency of (or in a grand cycle) as follows:


    where k is some parameter defining properties of the solar interior where the waves propagate, e.g. diffusivity, dynamo number (α and Ω effects) and meridional circulation.

    Frequency and period variations
    The beating effect between these frequencies can easily explain seemingly sporadic variations of high frequency amplitudes and the period of the low-frequency envelope wave in the resulting grand cycles seen in both the observational curve (Fig. 3 and theoretical curves (Fig. 6) reproducing the observational one. The higher the difference of frequencies the larger is the frequency, or a shorter period, of the grand cycle (350 years) and the smaller is a number of high frequency waves (≈22 year period) within this grand cycle. This effect is clearly seen in Figs 3 and 6, where the grand periods with a lower number of 22 year cycles are shorter (300–340 years, 2nd, 3rd and 5th grand cycles in Fig. 3), while those with higher number of 22-year cycles are longer (360–400 years, the 1st and 4th in Fig. 3).

    The difference in frequencies of the dynamo waves in two layers is governed by the variations of velocities of meridional circulations in the very top and the very bottom zones of these two layers (see the Method section) (schematically presented in Fig. 4 from Zhao et al.24). The frequency of a wave is reduced (or its period is increased) when the meridional circulation has higher velocities and this frequency is increased (or its period is decreased) when the meridional circulation is slower. It means that the meridional circulation acts as a drag force for dynamo waves generated in each layer altering their natural frequencies that would occur without the circulation.

    For example, within the two layers model considered, and taking into account that the low frequency cycles can have length Tg from 20 to 24 years (variations within Gleissberg’s cycle7), in order to produce the grand cycle with a beating period of 350 years, the periods of the dynamo waves in two layers should vary as follows: for the sunspot activity period Tg = 20 years -for the inner layer wave 1 − T1 = 18.9 years (corresponding to the velocity of meridional circulation about V = 7–8 m/s), for the upper layer wave 2 − T2 = 21 years (V = 9–10 m/s); for the activity period Tg = 24 years: the inner layer wave 1 − T1 = 22.46 years (V = 10–11 m/s), the upper layer wave 2 − T2 = 25.8 years (V = 13–14 m/s).

    If the grand cycle is 400 years, then the dynamo wave periods in two layers would slightly change; e.g. for the cycle period Tg = 20 years - for the inner layer wave 1 −T1 = 19 years (V = 7–8 m/s), for the upper layer wave 2 − T2 = 21 years (V = 9–10 m/s); for the period of Tg = 24 years: the inner layer wave 1 − T1 = 22.6 years (V = 10–11 m/s), the upper layer wave 2 − T2 = 25.53 years (V = 13–14 m/s).

    It can be seen that the period of the wave 1 generated in the inner layer (at the bottom of the convective zone) remains more or less stable at about T1 = 19 years (for generation of the low frequency activity period Tg = 20 years) or T1 = 22.6 year (for Tg = 24 years). While the period of the wave 2 generated in the upper layer should have larger fluctuations (e.g. T2 = 25.8 years for 350 grand cycle versus T2 = 25.53 years for 400 years grand cycle). These fluctutation are likely to be affected by the physical conditions in the solar interior, where the wave 2 is formed and the wave 1 has to travel through and to interact with the wave 2 to cause the beating effect combining the grand (ranging in 300–400 years) and short (ranging in 20–24 years) cycles seen in Fig. 3 as reproduced with the dynamo model in Fig. 6 for both poloidal and toroidal magnetic fields.

    Of course, estimations of the wave beating above are rather preliminary, given the fact that the PCs (or dynamo waves) in each layers comprise at least 5 waves with close frequencies as discussed in the Method section (Eqs. 2 and 3). This results in much more complex beating effects derived from PCA as presented in Fig. 3. The dynamo calculations only partially reproduced the long cycle with a period of about 350 years, which is the same for the whole millennium. However, in order to reproduce the full summary curve with the variable long-term period in Fig. 3 more detailed dynamo simulations including quadruple magnetic sources in all the three layers (shown in Fig. 4) are required.

    Wave amplitude variations
    The amplitudes of dynamo waves are affected by the variations of both α and Ω effects, or by the dynamo number D, i.e. a decrease of the negative dynamo number D (or its increase in absolute value) leads to an increase of toroidal field amplitude (see Fig. 5, top plot).

    This effect can be observed in both the observational (Fig. 3) and theoretical (Fig. 6) plots. In shorter grand cycles (with periods of 300–340 years), e.g. in 1800–2000 years and 2100–2350 years, the amplitudes of the high frequency wave (Tg = 20–24 years) are much higher than in longer cycles (periods of 350–400 years) in 1300–1650 years or 2400–2800 years. Although, in order to reproduce more closely the whole variety of observational features on a longer timescale, more detailed 3D model simulations are required.

    Therefore, the derived mathematical laws in cyclic variations of principal components of the observed solar magnetic field, which fit closely most of the observational features of solar activity in the past as shown in Fig. 3 and reproduced by the dynamo model in Fig. 6 opens a new era in the investigation of solar activity on millennium scale. By combining the observational curve with simulations of solar dynamo waves in two layers, it is possible to derive better understanding of the processes governing solar activity and produce long-term prediction of solar activity with impressive accuracy.

    Methods
    Derivation of parameters of the observed magnetic waves
    In order to distill the main parameters of the waves present in the observational solar magnetic data, one needs to reduce their dimensionality with the Principal Component Analysis (PCA)28. PCA is an orthogonal linear transformation allowing a vector space to be transformed to a new coordinate system, reducing the multi-dimensional data to lower dimensions for analysis, so that the greatest variance by any projection of the data lies on the first coordinate called the Principal Component (PC) with the second PC orthogonal to the first is defined by the second largest variance. This technique simultaneously (i) reduces the data dimensionality, (ii) increases the signal-to-noise ratios and (iii) orthogonalises the resulting components so that they can be ascribed to separate physical processes (see Zharkova et al.15 for more details). The PCA is an exact method, and its accuracy defined only by the noise of measurements, , of the original vector29.

    PCA was applied to low-resolution full disk solar background magnetic field (associated with the poloidal magnetic field) only become available from cycle 21 to cycle 24 as measured by the Wilcox Solar Observatory (with accuracy better than 0.5 Gauss, or the measurement error . We derive the dominant eigenvalues (0.1 and 1.0) covering the maximum variance of 39%15 defining the eigenfunctions, or Principal Components (PCs), which came as a pair of waves. These PCs are considered as the main (dipole) dynamo waves of the solar poloidal magnetic field.

    By applying a 3-year running averaging filter, any short-term (<3 years) fluctuations of magnetic field data are removed allowing us to keep the accuracy of PCA not worse than the measurement error (Wentzell and Lohnes30). The overall PCA accuracy of defining its eigen values from the WSO data with known measurement error (see Faber et al.29) is not worse than 0.2%. Running PCA on a combination of magnetic field measurements for any two cycles, or for all four cycles21–24 produces, within the error of 0.2%, the same eigenvalues as for the three cycles used in PCA15.

    For classification of the derived PCs we apply the symbolic regression approach based on the Hamiltonian principle implemented in the Euriqa software21. This allows us to derive the exact mathematical formulae for the amplitude variations and phase shifts of both principal components as follows19:

    for wave 1:


    for wave 2:


    where the parameters with ω define the corresponding wave frequencies and ϕ define their phase shifts. Shepherd et al.19 found that the approximations with only N = 5 terms in the series above allow them to capture the functions describing the waves of PCs for the cycles 21–24 with an accuracy better than 97%19. As expected, any attempts to distill the parameters from the original magnetic field data (before deriving PCs) were unsuccessful indicating the very complex nature of the original magnetic field waves.

    These two PCs are used for calculation of the summary wave (a sum of amplitudes) and the modulus summary wave (reflected to the positive amplitudes only) linked to the averaged sunspot numbers currently used for definition of solar activity.

    Non-linear αΩ dynamo model in a two-layer medium with meridional circulation
    In order to understand the basic features of the derived PCs, let us use Parker’s αΩ-dynamo model with two layers with meridional circulation17 updated by considering a non-linear dynamo process. It is assumed that dynamo waves are generated by the dipole sources only located in two layers: one dipole in the subsurface layer and the other dipole deeply in the solar convection zone (see Fig. 4); and the parameters (dynamo number and meridional circulation) of magnetic field generation in each layer are different17.

    This results in the simultaneous existence of two magnetic waves with different periods and phase shifts17, similar to those derived with PCA (see Fig. 1). For the sake of simplicity this approach excludes the dynamo waves generated by quadruple sources in both layers accounting for the other six independent components17, which are shown to slightly modify the overall appearance of magnetic waves that will be considered in the forthcoming paper.

    [I had to cut off the paper at this point as it was too long to copy and paste in its entirety here. All images have been moved below to the bottom of this post.]







    These two above charts are the key "take away" ones for laymen: it predicts that the Eddy Minimum will be far worse than the Maunder Minimum [which was bad enough for deaths from famine and disease]. The Little Ice Age lasted longer but the Eddy Minimum is expected to be deeper. Bitterly cold winters with brief, hot summers. Not much grown at latitude 45 degrees and above.





    Last edited by von Koehler; 11-11-2018 at 03:46 PM.
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  30. #1310
    Isn't it interesting that the conclusions of many different types of studies end up coinciding when the results are graphed?

  31. #1311
    Also interesting that history speaks but no one wants to listen. And so many who do listen don't like what they hear, so they just re-write the history so that it tells them what they want to hear.

  32. #1312
    Quote Originally Posted by Martinhouse View Post
    Also interesting that history speaks but no one wants to listen. And so many who do listen don't like what they hear, so they just re-write the history so that it tells them what they want to hear.
    My guesses are:

    that most people haven't heard of the Eddy Minimum,

    if they did it conflicts from the standard accepted line of human caused global warming [especially on the Left],

    a lot of grant receiving institutions and professors have been funded for "Global Warming" research, not cooling,

    it's in the interest of the elites to have a lot of people dieoff,

    it's "not real" to most people until it personally affects them,

    the present economy is still resilient enough to withstand the initial blows of global cooling,

    and plain old cognitive dissonance-the realization that for most they are not prepared in the least for what's coming.

    von Koehler
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  33. #1313
    It/"s comparatively warm this morning, above 40 and our chance of rain has dropped to around 50% from the predicted near 100%. Looks like what we will get could stop and let the roads dry before temps drop down below freezing for the night. Tomorrow night will be the cold one...forecast is for down to almost 20.

    These temps are not unusual for November, and I've see runs of years with extreme weather and some with mild weather, but I've never seen the temps changing from high to low or low to high, so abruptly.

    It's going to be hard to plan our days when the only consistency in the weather will be it's inconsistency.

  34. #1314
    Quote Originally Posted by Martinhouse View Post
    It/"s comparatively warm this morning, above 40 and our chance of rain has dropped to around 50% from the predicted near 100%. Looks like what we will get could stop and let the roads dry before temps drop down below freezing for the night. Tomorrow night will be the cold one...forecast is for down to almost 20.

    These temps are not unusual for November, and I've see runs of years with extreme weather and some with mild weather, but I've never seen the temps changing from high to low or low to high, so abruptly.

    It's going to be hard to plan our days when the only consistency in the weather will be it's inconsistency.
    You've got that right! We're already looking at that problem... trying to figure out when we must move a group of animals indoors into the freestall barn... they then need feed hauled every day, etc, and the bedding bill explodes. But we don't want to wait too long and be moving them in a blizzard, either!

    Hubby pulled the rest of the plants from the garden Thursday... harvested the brussels sprouts, which were just perfect after a couple light frosts. He brought in a dozen or so ripe sweet peppers, and surprisingly (very much so, given that it's the middle of November already) only a couple had frost damage.

    I'm hoping for a couple good "Indian summer" days to harvest my field corn. It's an heirloom white corn which yields phenomenally well, but requires a long season for our area... fortunately, we got a long season this year, because it got planted way too late. Now it's ready, but I'm just not thrilled about having to pick corn in temps that aren't above freezing... yes, I'm getting wussy in my old age!

    As far as why people aren't paying attention to history, etc... they've been getting brainwashed from kindergarten on that "global warming" is this huge, imminent danger. Do you really think they're teaching one single thing about the Eddy minimum or Maunder Minimum in school? Ha!

    Summerthyme

  35. #1315
    https://co2coalition.org/2017/04/10/...oming-decades/

    NEWS, STUDIES AND RESOURCES 10 APR, 2017

    A Swelling Volume Of Scientific Papers Now Forecasting Global Cooling In The Coming Decades

    By Kenneth Richard

    Modern Solar Grand Maximum Ends ‘Little Ice Age’ Cooling On The Way



    During the 20th and early 21st centuries, Earth’s inhabitants have enjoyed an epoch of very high solar activity that is rare or unique in the context of the last several thousand years. The higher solar activity and warmer temperatures have allowed the planet to briefly emerge from the depths of the successive solar minima periods and “Little Ice Age” cooling that lasted from the 1300s to the early 1900s.
    Unfortunately, solar scientists have increasingly been forecasting a return to a solar minimum period in the coming decades, as well as the concomitant cooler temperatures.

    In several newly published (2017) papers, scientists have suggested that a substantial deterioration into solar minimum conditions and global cooling may be imminent (see, for example, here and here and here). What follows is a collection of dozens of other papers that have also projected a solar minimum-induced “Little Ice Age” climate for the foreseeable future.

    The analysis concludes with references to recently published papers that indicate the North Atlantic region has already begun cooling rapidly within the last decade. Scientists have long suggested that what happens in the North Atlantic may have global-scale implications, and thus the observed North Atlantic cooling trend may be a harbinger of the climate that is to come.

    The Modern Grand Maximum Of Solar Activity A ‘Rare’ Or ‘Unique’ Event
    Usoskin et al., 2014

    “[T]he modern Grand maximum (which occurred during solar cycles 19–23, i.e., 1950–2009) was a rare or even unique event, in both magnitude and duration, in the past three millennia. Except for these extreme cases, our reconstruction otherwise reveals that solar activity is well confined within a relatively narrow range.”



    Lockwood et al., 2009

    “[T]he Sun has been unusually active over recent decades (Solanki et al. 2004; Vonmoos et al. 2006; Muscheler et al. 2007; Steinhilber et al. 2008). Solanki et al. (2004) used the 14C isotope abundance found in tree trunks and concluded that the Sun has been more active recently than at any time in the previous 8000 years and that it was as active as in recent decades for only 10% of the past 11000 years.”

    Chen et al., 2015

    “We explored the sources and characteristics of each pigment, reconstructed an 800-year record of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) and total incoming light intensity, and identified the possible factors that may have influenced historical UVR changes in this region. The results indicated at least four UVR [ultraviolet radiation] peaks during the past 800 years, corresponding to c. AD 1950–2000, 1720–1790, 1560–1630 and 1350–1480, with the intensity from the most recent [1950-2000] sediments being the highest.”





    The Modern Grand Maximum Of Solar Activity Has Recently Drawn To A Close
    Wang et al., 2010

    “It is seen that a very active period that began in 1920, the so-called ‘current grand solar maximum’, will probably end during 2011-2027, since a variety of indices related to solar activity have significantly shifted since 1987. … [T]he current grand solar maximum has already lasted for eight 11-year solar cycles and might end in the coming one/two 11-year cycles; a grand solar minimum might prevail in the next 100–200 years.”

    Zharkova et al., 2015

    “The longest direct ervation of solar activity is the 400-year sunspot-number series, which depicts a dramatic contrast between the almost spotless Maunder and Dalton minima, and the period of very high activity in the most recent 5 cycles [1950s – 2000s], prior to cycle 24. … The records show that solar activity in the current cycle 24 is much lower than in the previous three cycles 21–23 revealing more than a two-year minimum period between cycles 23 and 24. This reduced activity in cycle 24 was very surprising because the previous five cycles were extremely active and sunspot productive forming the Modern Maximum.”

    “We predict correctly many features from the past, such as: 1) an increase in solar activity during the Medieval Warm period; 2) a clear decrease in the activity during the Little Ice Age, the Maunder Minimum and the Dalton Minimum; 3) an increase in solar activity during a modern maximum in 20th century. .. We note, in particular, a decreasing activity for solar cycles 25 and 26 coinciding with the end of the previous 350–400-year grand cycle and then increase of the solar activity again from cycle 27 onwards as the start of a new grand cycle with an unusually weak cycle 30. Hence, cycles 25–27 marks a clear end of the modern grand period that can have significant implications for many aspects of solar activity in human lives including the current debate on climate change.”



    A new model of the Sun’s solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun’s 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the ‘mini ice age’ that began in 1645. … Results will be presented today by Prof Valentina Zharkova at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno. … Zharkova and her colleagues derived their model using a technique called ‘principal component analysis’ of the magnetic field observations from the Wilcox Solar Observatory in California. They examined three solar cycles-worth of magnetic field activity, covering the period from 1976-2008. In addition, they compared their predictions to average sunspot numbers, another strong marker of solar activity. All the predictions and observations were closely matched. “Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97%,” said Zharkova. “Effectively, when the waves are approximately in phase, they can show strong interaction, or resonance, and we have strong solar activity. When they are out of phase, we have solar minimums. When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago.”

    ‘All Proponents Of Planetary Forcing Have Forecasted A Solar Grand Minimum For The Upcoming Decades’
    Sánchez-Sesma, 2015

    “Solar activity (SA) has non-linear characteristics that influence multiple scales in solar processes (Vlahos and Georgoulis, 2004). For instance, millennia-scale solar oscillations have been recently detected, like those of about 6000 and 2400 years, by Xapsos and Burke (2009) and Charvátová (2000), respectively, with important and interesting influences in the near past and future climate. These millennial-scale patterns of reconstructed solar activity variability could justify epochs of low activity, such as the Maunder Minimum, as well as epochs of enhanced activity, such as the current Modern Maximum, and the Medieval Maximum in the 12th century. Although the reason for these solar activity oscillations is unclear, it has been proposed that they are due to chaotic behavior of non-linear dynamo equations (Ruzmaikin, 1983), or stochastic instabilities forcing the solar dynamo, leading to on-off intermittency (Schmittet al., 1996), or planetary gravitational forcing with recurrent multi-decadal, multi-centennial and longer patterns (Fairbridge and Sanders, 1987; Fairbridge and Shirley,1987; Charvátová, 2000; Duhau and Jager, 2010; Perry and Hsu, 2000). It should be noted that all proponents of planetary forcing have forecasted a solar Grand Minimum for the upcoming decades, but one of them has also forecasted a Super Minimum for the next centuries (Perry and Hsu, 2000). In addition, during recent decades, statistical forecasts (with physically-based spectral information of reconstructed records) of solar magnetic activity predict a clear decrease in solar activity, reaching a minimum around AD 2100 (Steinhilber et al., 2013; S13, hereafter, Velasco et al., 2015)”

    Liu et al., 2011

    “Climate events worldwide, such as the MWP and LIA, were seen in a 2485-year temperature series. The largest amplitude and rate of temperature both occurred during the EJE [Eastern Jin Event (343–425 AD)], but not in the late 20th century. The millennium-scale cycle of solar activity determined the long-term temperature variation trends, while century-scale cycles controlled the amplitudes of temperature. Sunspot minimum events were associated with cold periods. The prediction results obtained using caterpillar-SSA showed that the temperature would increase until 2006 AD on the central-eastern Plateau, and then decrease until 2068 AD, and then increase again.”



    Steinhilber and Beer, 2013

    “Our methods are able to predict periods of high and low solar activities for a few centuries in the past. However, they are less successful in predicting the correct amplitude. Then, the methods were used to predict the period 2000–2500. Both methods predict a period of low activity around 2100 A.D. Between 2100 and 2350 A.D., the results are inconsistent regarding the duration of the low-activity state in 2100 A.D. and the level of activity until 2250 A.D.”



    Lüdecke et al., 2015

    “The Earth’s climate shows a rather regular oscillation of ∼ 200 year period during the last millennia. However, frequency, phase, and strength of the oscillation are found to vary in different time series of temperatures and for different times (see Figs. 4–6, and 5 8). Nonetheless, the relative historic stability of the cycle suggests that the periodic nature of the climate will persist also for the foreseeable future. Disregarding other conceivable forcings e.g. anthropogenic influences, an approximate prediction of the climate for the next 100 years suggests itself. Figure 9 shows the Tsine representation from AD 1800 to AD 2100 derived from the ∆Tsine representation by a π/2 phase shift. It gives correctly the 1850–1900 temperature minimum and shows a temperature drop from present to ∼ AD 2080, the latter comparable with the minimum of 1870, as already predicted in the studies (Steinhilber and Beer, 2013; Liu et al., 2011) on the grounds of solar activity data alone.”

    Herrera et al., 2015

    “Of particular interest now is the fact that the behavior of the solar cycle 23 minimum has shown an activity decline not previously seen in past cycles for which spatial observations exist: this could be signaling the start of a new grand solar minimum.”



    Evans, 2016

    “Four manifestations of unconventional climate influences are identified, each with at least as much effect on surface temperature as the direct heating effect of changes in total solar irradiance (TSI): external-driven albedo; countervailing cooling during TSI peaks, implied by the absence of corresponding peaks in the surface temperature record (the “notch”); the long-term sensitivity of surface warming to TSI increases; and the delay of ∼11 years between changes in underlying or smoothed TSI and the corresponding changes in surface temperature. We hypothesize these are all manifestations of a single force whose exact mechanism is unknown but whose crucial properties can be deduced: “Force X” modulates the Earth’s albedo, and lags TSI by one sunspot cycle or half the ∼22-year cycle of the Sun’s hydromagnetic dynamo. A second, alternative hypothesis is of “force N” for the notch and “force D” for the delayed force causing the other three manifestations. The notch-delay solar model can explain the global warming of the last few decades and centuries in terms of force X/D. Several solar indicators including TSI peaked ∼1986, but surface warming continued until ∼1998, which is explained by the delay. The notch-delay hypothesis predicts sustained and significant global cooling starting sometime in the period 2017 to 2022, of ∼0.3°C but perhaps milder (TSI estimates vary), as force X/D falls off in response to the marked decline in underlying TSI from around 2004—one of the three biggest and fastest falls in TSI since sunspot records began in 1610

    [This article was too long to post in its entirety so here's the top half.]
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  36. #1316


    Here's my interpretation of Dr. Zharkova's chart.

    First, look at the individual blue colored waves above the black line titled "Little Ice Age." Notice how high and low each wave moves; it establishes the actual historical range of ups and downs in aptitude.

    Next, look at the predicted range of the Eddy Minimum: it is much, much more restricted. There is a line connecting this point to a box saying "Solar cycle 26 will be the end of the Solar Maximum."

    This prediction of Dr. Zharkova's model implies that the Eddy Minimum will be harsher than the Little Ice Age.

    von Koehler
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  37. #1317
    Thanks, VK,

    Again, my usual reaction...EEEK!

  38. #1318
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    East Central Texas
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    1,854
    Quote Originally Posted by Martinhouse View Post
    Thanks, VK,

    Again, my usual reaction...EEEK!
    We just came in from wrapping our well pump pipes, and double wrapping our outside faucets (first with bubble wrap, then with the cover). Winds are picking up and we have drizzle, winds are set to be much stronger later today and into the overnight, when go below freezing. We just got our phone msg from our emergency mgmt folks warning of a hard freeze tonight and to protect pipes, pets, and livestock.

    I read the above, and went beyond your EEEK! to an unladylike Oh S**T! Mentally, thank heavens.

  39. #1319
    Quote Originally Posted by TxGal View Post
    We just came in from wrapping our well pump pipes, and double wrapping our outside faucets (first with bubble wrap, then with the cover). Winds are picking up and we have drizzle, winds are set to be much stronger later today and into the overnight, when go below freezing. We just got our phone msg from our emergency mgmt folks warning of a hard freeze tonight and to protect pipes, pets, and livestock.

    I read the above, and went beyond your EEEK! to an unladylike Oh S**T! Mentally, thank heavens.
    Well, to add to the doom porn, this chart also implies that the Eddy Minimum will last at least for 40 years!

    I will be gone long before that date, but it means my daughter and her children will face a tough future.

    Choices made today literally will affect you for the rest of your life: stay put and hunker down OR relocate elsewhere?

    But where? Further South? Does this mean real estate in the Northeast and Midwest pluments while warmer Southern areas gain?

    von Koehler
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  40. #1320
    I think it's possible that in another couple of years, most won't be able to afford to move south. Or they will end up in the hills where most of the dirt is just one big rock under a few inches of crushed rock. It took me a long time to get decent soil, and at that, I had to have six dump trucks of dirt brought in to get enough soil to make a garden.

    It's still hard for me to believe I leveled all that dirt with a wheelbarrow, shovel and rake! And they were those big huge sized dump trucks! Was I ever that young and strong? Nowadays, it takes me over an hour to move three bags of chicken feed from my truck in the driveway to the feed cans by the chicken run, which is a little uphill, but not much over a hundred feet!

    So if you want to move south, better do it soon. It's probably going to be as cold here in a few more years as it is up north now. And if you stay up north, better have lots of sturdy greenhousing and access to firewood where there aren't a jillion other people thinking that they are going to use it Meaning, if you live at the edge of a national forest, you're probably going to have lots of neighbors. Close neighbors.

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