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The Grand Solar Minimum
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  1. #1241


    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...snow_us_19.png

    Latest snow cover model; remember we just entered Fall.
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  2. #1242


    https://www.eh-resources.org/wp-cont...mate_graph.jpg



    https://www.eh-resources.org/wp-cont...r-severity.jpg

    Timeline Middle Ages and Early Modern Period

    1300 AD

    Onset of the Little Ice Age

    Environmental upheavals linked to sever climate variability characterised the
    period from 1300 to 1400. All tree ring series in northern Europe show a decline
    in growth rates, indicating an adverse climatic change. This marked the
    transition from a “Medieval Warm Period” to the “Little Ice Age” when
    temperatures were on average 1.5 degrees Celsius lower than before and with
    greater seasonal variation. The cooling trend associated with the Little Ice Age
    progressively moved from north-west to south-east across Europe, with the
    Vikings in the far North experiencing the cooling first, British Isles experiencing
    the effects from the 1290s and the Mediterranean after 1320.

    Written records from the 14th century provide accounts of severe weather in
    the period from 1314 to 1317, which led in turn to crop failure and famine. This
    episode of failed harvests and its consequences is known as “The Great Famine”.
    Notwithstanding these ecological calamities, the population of northern Europe
    was at an all time high by the second quarter of the 14th century. However, the
    arrival of the Black Death, in Europe in 1347 pushed the European population
    11/1/2018 Timeline Middle Ages and Early Modern Period - Environmental History Resources
    https://www.eh-resources.org/timeline-middle-ages/ 2/9
    into a century-long demographic decline and caused long-term changes in
    economy and society.

    1347 AD

    The Black Death

    Germs and microbes are part of our environment. In fact, these creatures can be
    regarded as the most successful living things on the planet. Our invisible
    environment of microbes has also shaped events in world history in many ways.
    Nowhere was this more evident and visible ultimately, in the Black Death that
    affected, and infected, Eurasia during the 14th century. The Black Death spread
    from central Asia along trade routes and reached southern Europe in 1347. It
    swept quickly through the continent and reached northern Scandinavia and
    Iceland in 1350. Few areas escaped and by late 1350 between 30 and 40% of
    the European population had perished.


    But what catapulted the Black Death on the world stage? Recently it has been
    suggested that a climatic event similar to the 536 dust veil event is responsible.

    Based on comparing the chronologies of prices, wages, grain harvests and the
    corresponding chronologies of growing conditions and climatic variations,
    taking into consideration dendrochronology, the Greenland ice cores it has
    emerged that the episodes of the Black Death coincide with depressed
    temperatures. Find out more in this video lecture by Professor Bruce Campbell
    of Queens University Belfast.

    11/1/2018 Timeline Middle Ages and Early Modern Period - Environmental History Resources
    https://www.eh-resources.org/timeline-middle-ages/ 3/9

    The dramatic decline of the European population caused by the Black Death
    coincided with a decline in global temperature. Coincidence? The climate was
    already getting colder because the northern hemisphere was heading for the
    Little Ice Age. At the same time agricultural land was taken out of production in
    Europe because of the 25-40% decline of the European population (depending
    on region). This means ploughing of less ground, which releases greenhouse
    gasses (Methane and carbonates) and forest clearance was reversed. More
    trees and scrubs mean that more carbon (CO2) was taken out of the
    atmosphere and stored in biomass. The abandoned farmland acted as a
    significant carbon sink because trees store carbon taken from the CO2 in the air.
    From about 1350 CO2 levels in the atmosphere appear to fall following the
    Black Death. However, a long term declining trend may have already started
    before the Black Death. We know that the first two decades of the 14th century
    were wetter, windier and climatically more unstable than before. The declining
    trend also continued after the recovery of agriculture after 1440. The
    reforestation that followed the Black Death and the resulting decrease of CO2
    in the atmosphere pronounced a natural cooling trend that was already
    underway: the beginning of the Little Ice Age (LIA). This does not mean the LIA
    was triggered by the Black Death but the latter possibly contributed to it,
    although temporarily.

    Gottfried, Robert S., The Black Death: natural and human disaster in medieval
    Europe (New York and London: Macmillan, 1983).

    Yeloff, Dan and Bas van Geel, ‘Abandonment of farmland and vegetation
    succession following the Eurasian plague pandemic of ad 1347-52’, Journal of
    Biogeography, Vol. 34, No. 4 (2007), 575-582

    1492 AD

    Columbian Exchange

    Biological exchanges and invasions are important drivers in history. Over the
    course of the Earth’s history there have been many biological invasions. Think
    for example of the species that took advantage of land bridges during ice ages,
    when sea levels were lower, to expand into new areas where they did not live
    before. These processes were relatively slow and only the most mobile species
    were able to migrate over long distances. Geographic barriers, such as oceans
    and mountain chains, inhibited migrations of most species and divided the earth
    into distinct biogeographical provinces. But with the development of long
    distance navigation in the 15th century people started to transport species from
    one continent to another on a scale and with a speed that the world had never
    experienced before.

    This process of the exchange of biota is now familiar to many historians, as the
    Columbian Exchange, thanks to the work of Alfred Crosby. Crosby used the
    term to describe the exchange of agricultural goods and disease between the
    Eastern and Western Hemispheres that has occurred since 1492. To America,
    Europeans introduced crops like wheat, rice, bananas, sugar, and grapes.
    Europeans also brought a number of domesticated animals to the New World,
    including horses, cattle, pigs and sheep. The Eurasian species thrived in the
    America’s because their animals and plans encountered less competitions or it
    was even absent, altering ecosystems forever but also aiding the success of
    Europeans in the New World, a phenomenon dubbed “ecological imperialism” by
    Crosby.

    However, the exchange process was not a one-way street. Africa and Eurasia
    acquired some very useful crops from the Americas, most notably potatoes and
    maize. The new food crops fuelled population growth in Europe, Africa and
    China.

    One of the most dramatic consequences of the Columbian Exchange was the
    transportation of microbes to the America's that caused pandemics among the
    local populations. These populations had never been exposed to diseases such
    as small pox or measles. As a result is has been estimated that between 75 to 90
    per cent of the indigenous populations of the America's perished.

    Further reading

    Crosby, Alfred W., Ecological Imperialism: The Biological Expansion of Europe, 900-
    1900 (Cambridge; New York: Cambridge University Press, 1986)

    Crosby, Alfred W., “Columbian exchange: plants, animals, and disease between
    the Old and New World”,National Humanities
    Center, nationalhumanitiescenter.org/tserve/nattrans/ntecoindian/essays/columbian.ht

    Crosby, Alfred W., The Columbian Exchange: Biological and Cultural Consequences
    of 1492 (Westport, Connecticut: Greenwood Publishing Co., 1972)

    1600 AD

    The Little Ice Age

    The Little Ice Age is a period between about
    1300 and 1870 during which Europe and
    North America were subjected to much
    colder winters than during the 20th century.
    The period can be divided in two phases, the
    first beginning around 1300 and continuing
    until the late 1400s. There was a slightly warmer period in the 1500s, after
    which the climate deteriorated substantially. The period between 1600 and
    1800 marks the height of the Little Ice Age.

    During the height of the Little Ice Age, there are indications that average winter
    temperatures in Europe and North America were as much as 2°C lower than at
    present. The Baltic Sea froze over, as did most of the rivers in Europe. Winters
    were bitterly cold and prolonged, reducing the growing season by several
    weeks. These conditions led to widespread crop failure, famine, and in some
    regions population decline.


    At the same time the 17th and 18th centuries were characterised by the
    expansion of European trade and the formation of European sea born Empires.
    This was directly linked to advances in technology harnessing more of nature's
    power and towards the end of the period fossil-fuelled power. These two
    hundred years also saw the specialisation of agricultural regions, which
    produced specialized products for local and international markets.

    1645 AD

    Maunder Minimum

    The exact cause of the Little Ice Age is unknown,
    but many people have pointed at the coincidence
    in low sunspot activity and the timing of the Little
    Ice. This so called Maunder Minimum coincided
    with the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, in
    particular during the period roughly from 1645 to
    1715, when sunspots were a rare occurrence, as
    noted by solar observers such as Cassini and
    Flamsteed. A minimum in sunspots, indicates an
    much less active and possibly colder sun and consequently less energy output to
    warm the earth.

    The Maunder Minimum is named after astronomer E.W. Maunder who
    discovered the absence of sunspots during that period. Recently published data
    suggests that the Sun expanded during the Maunder Minimum and its rotation
    slowed. A larger and slower Sun, it is speculated, might also mean a cooler Sun
    that provides less heat to Earth. (Just why the Sun expands and contracts is not
    entirely understood).

    Further reading

    H.H. Lamb,"Climatic Fluctuations", in H.
    Flohn (ed), World Survey of Climatology. Vol.2.

    General Climatology (New York: Elsevier,
    1969), p. 236; Schneider, S. H., and C. Mass,

    "Volcanic dust, sunspots, and temperature trends", Science, 190 (1975) 741-746.
    John A. Eddy,"The Maunder Minimum", Science, 18 June 1976, Vol. 192, No.
    4254, 1198-1202. [Yes, that's THE Eddy whom many want to honor by naming our current solar minimum after.]
    Last edited by von Koehler; 11-01-2018 at 06:43 AM.
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  3. #1243
    https://www.eh-resources.org/little-ice-age/

    Little Ice Age

    JUNE 5, 2015 / K. JAN OOSTHOEK

    The Little Ice Age was a period of regionally cold conditions between roughly AD 1300 and 1850. The term “Little Ice Age” is somewhat questionable, because there was no single, well-defined period of prolonged cold. There were two phases of the Little Ice Age, the first beginning around 1290 and continuing until the late 1400s. There was a slightly warmer period in the 1500s, after which the climate deteriorated substantially, with the coldest period between 1645 and 1715 . During this coldest phase of the Little Ice Age there are indications that average winter temperatures in Europe and North America were as much as 2°C lower than at present.

    There is substantial historical evidence for the Little Ice Age. The Baltic Sea froze over, as did many of the rivers and lakes in Europe. Pack ice expanded far south into the Atlantic making shipping to Iceland and Greenland impossible for months on end. Winters were bitterly cold and summers were often cool and wet. These conditions led to widespread crop failure, famine, and population decline. The tree line and snowline dropped and glaciers advanced, overrunning towns and farms in the process. There were increased levels of social unrest as large portions of the population were reduced to starvation and poverty.

    Marginal regions

    During the height of the Little Ice Age, it was in general about one degree Celsius colder than at present. The Baltic Sea froze over, as did most of the rivers in Europe. Winters were bitterly cold and prolonged, reducing the growing season by several weeks. These conditions led to widespread crop failure, famine, and in some regions population decline.

    The prices of grain increased and wine became difficult to produce in many areas and commercial vineyards vanished in England. Fishing in northern Europe was also badly affected as cod migrated south to find warmer water. Storminess and flooding increased and in mountainous regions the treeline and snowline dropped. In addition glaciers advanced in the Alps and Northern Europe, overrunning towns and farms in the process.

    Iceland was one of the hardest hit areas. Sea ice, which today is far to the north, came down around Iceland. In some years, it was difficult to bring a ship ashore anywhere along the coast. Grain became impossible to grow and even hay crops failed. Volcanic eruptions made life even harder. Iceland lost half of its population during the Little Ice Age.



    Rhone Glacier, ca. 1870
    Rhône glacier ca. 1870. Source: Wikimedia Commons

    Tax records in Scandinavia show many farms were destroyed by advancing ice of glaciers and by melt water streams. Travellers in Scotland reported permanent snow cover over the Cairngorm Mountains in Scotland at an altitude of about 1200 metres. In the Alps, the glaciers advanced and threatened to bulldozed towns. Ice-dammed lakes burst periodically, destroying hundreds of buildings and killing many people. As late as 1930 the French Government commissioned a report to investigate the threat of the glaciers. They could not have foreseen that human induced global warming was to deal more effective with this problem than any committee ever could.

    Flourishing of European culture

    Despite the difficulties in marginal regions, culture and economy were generally flowering in Europe during the Little Ice Age. This is most visible in the way that people transformed their environment during the 17th and 18th centuries with expanding agriculture and large scale land reclamation, for example in the Netherlands and England.



    Bruegel Skaters painting
    Winter landscape by Brueghel the Elder.
    Source: Wikimedia Commons

    The Little Ice Age also coincided with the maritime expansion of Europe and the creation of seaborne trading and later colonial empires. First came the Spanish and Portuguese, followed by the Dutch, English and other European nations. Key to this success was the development of shipbuilding technology which was a response to both trading, strategic but also climatic pressures.

    Art and architecture also flourished, which is probably best embodied in the wonderful winter landscape paintings which can be considered a direct result of the Little Ice Age. These paintings show us ice-skaters enjoying themselves, a sign that they were more than capable to withstand the harsh winter conditions and that they had also enough food (Robinson: 2005). The latter is a key element in the success of European culture at that time.

    On balance, the Little Ice Age affected northern European history in different ways. Regions that diversified agriculture and had good access to the international trade network, like Britain and the Low Countries, could cope quite easily with increasingly severe weather conditions. They could import food when harvests failed. Trade also gave them the financial base to develop technological responses.

    In isolated regions, like high alpine areas of Switzerland, the Highlands of Scotland or Iceland, the unfavorable condition of the Little Ice Age, especially cold springs and harvest rains as well as longer winters, strongly influenced grain prices and were drivers for local famines. In central Europe the Little Ice Age was characterized by increased droughts as well as by increased flood frequency. Generally, the impact on different parts of Europe differed considerably. Some regions thrived while others struggled.

    What caused the Little Ice Age?

    The earth does not have some magical average natural temperature to which it always returns. If it warms, the earth must be receiving more heat or retaining more heat. If it cools, then it must be receiving less heat from the Sun or radiating more into space, or both. Is that what happened during the Little Ice Age?

    Maunder Minimum

    The exact cause of the Little Ice Age is unknown, but there is a striking coincidence in the sunspot cycle and the timing of the Little Ice Age. During the Little Ice Age, there is a minimum in sunspots, indicating an inactive and possibly cooler sun. This absence of sunspots is called the Maunder Minimum.



    Sunspot numbers
    Source: Wikipedia/ Robert A. Rohde

    The Maunder Minimum occurred during the coldest period of the Little Ice Age between 1645 and 1715 AD, when the number of sunspots was very low. It is named after British astronomer E.W. Maunder who discovered the dearth of sunspots during that period. The lack of sunspots meant that solar radiation was probably lower at this time, but models and temperature reconstructions suggest this would have reduced average global temperatures by 0.4ºC at most, which does not explain the regional cooling of the climate in Europe and North America.

    North Atlantic Oscillation

    What does explain a drop of up to 2 degrees C in winter temperatures? The North Atlantic is one of the most climatically unstable regions in the world. This is caused by a complex interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean. The main feature of this is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a seesaw of atmospheric pressure between a persistent high over the Azores and an equally persistent low over Iceland. Sometimes the pressure cells weaken and that has severe consequences for the weather in Europe.



    Positive NAO
    Positive North Atlantic Oscillation.
    Image Courtesy Martin Visbeck

    When the Azores high pressure grows stronger than usual and the Icelandic low becomes deeper than normal, this results in warm and wet winters in Europe and in cold and dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland. This also means that the North Atlantic Storm track move north, directing more frequent and severe storms over northern Europe. This situation is called a Positive NAO Index.



    Negative NAO
    Negative North Atlantic Oscillation.
    Image Courtesy Martin Visbeck

    When both pressure systems are weak, cold air can reach Northern Europe more easily during the winter months resulting in cold winters and the North Atlantic storm track is pushed south, causing wet weather in the Mediterranean. This situation is called a Negative NAO Index.

    It is now thought that during the Little Ice Age NAO Index was more persistent in a negative mode. For this reason the regional variability during the Little Ice Age can be understood in terms of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic region.


    Further reading

    Dodgshon, Robert A., ‘The little ice age in the Scottish Highlands and Islands: Documenting its human impact’, Scottish Geographical Journal, Vol. 121, No. 4 (2005), 321

    Fagan, Brian M., The Little Ice Age: how climate made history, 1300-1850 (New York: Basic Books, 2000)

    Le Roy Ladurie, Emmanuel, Times of feast, times of famine: a history of climate since the year 1000 (LinkLondon: Allen & Unwin, 1972)

    Mann, M. E., ‘Medieval Climatic Optimum’, in Michael C. MacCracken and John S. Perry (eds.),Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change
    (vol. 1, Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2002), 514–516. Access at:http://holocene.meteo.psu.edu/shared...medclimopt.pdf

    Pfister, C. and Brazdil, R., ‘Social vulnerability to climate in the “Little Ice Age”: an example from Central Europe in the early 1770s’, Climate of the Past Discussions, Vol. 2 (2006), 123-155. Access at:http://www.clim-past.net/2/115/2006/cp-2-115-2006.html

    Robinson, Peter J., ‘Ice and snow in paintings of Little Ice Age winters’, Weather, Vol. 60, No. 2 (2005), 37-41
    Last edited by von Koehler; 11-01-2018 at 06:54 AM.
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  4. #1244
    Here in north central Arkansas, we've been getting too much rain and not enough sun for my taste. But I've yet to have a killing frost and there is none in the ten-day forecast. It's been a little warmer than it should be for end of October/beginning of November.

    This afternoon I'll be bringing in the last of my outdoor potted plants and then other than digging a couple of sweet potatoes, my only outdoor chores will be raking leaves for composting and cleaning out the gutters. Am looking forward to working in the greenhouse which is attached to the south side of my house and provides me with lots of extra heat on sunny winter days.

    Von Koehler, thank you for this mornings posts. I've read every bit of them and am still studying the pictures, charts and graphs.

    I'm still hoping I'm far enough south that winters won't be too much colder than usual here.

  5. #1245
    I have decided that I am not comfortable posting on an Evangelical Christian forum. The differences are simply too broad to ignore anymore.

    bye

    von Koehler
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  6. #1246
    Quote Originally Posted by von Koehler View Post
    I have decided that I am not comfortable posting on an Evangelical Christian forum. The differences are simply too broad to ignore anymore.

    bye

    von Koehler
    Um not all of us are in that category, I was just going to comment on how interesting these posts were..
    expatriate Californian living in rural Ireland with husband, dogs, horses. garden and many, many cats

  7. #1247
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    Quote Originally Posted by von Koehler View Post
    I have decided that I am not comfortable posting on an Evangelical Christian forum. The differences are simply too broad to ignore anymore.

    bye

    von Koehler
    Sorry to hear this. I always looked forward to the posts.

  8. #1248
    Join Date
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    what is that supposed to mean? can you explain a little better? please.

    i take no offense in any way, but just so i can understand.

  9. #1249
    As Melodi has said, a lot of us are not Christians, evangelical or otherwise. A lot of us have expressed appreciation for this thread but we shouldn't have to periodically beg for it.

    We might not find and post all of the excellent information like we've been getting up to now, but if we keep contributing when we have something to share from our own areas, we can still build a picture of how this GSM is progressing.

    One site I visit that has a fair amount of this type information. Robert Felix's iceagenow.info

  10. #1250
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by Martinhouse View Post
    As Melodi has said, a lot of us are not Christians, evangelical or otherwise. A lot of us have expressed appreciation for this thread but we shouldn't have to periodically beg for it.

    We might not find and post all of the excellent information like we've been getting up to now, but if we keep contributing when we have something to share from our own areas, we can still build a picture of how this GSM is progressing.

    One site I visit that has a fair amount of this type information. Robert Felix's iceagenow.info
    Very well said, Martinhouse. The back and forth seems to be increasing, and rather odd. Felix's site was the first I discovered, and a good gateway to additional research for those that can carve out the time to do it.

    We had a huge cold front blow in Wednesday early evening, and in the span of a few hours got 3" of rainfall. At times it was so heavy it was like whiteout conditions. Thankfully no damage in our area, but there were tornado warnings in many areas. Ground is still too wet to do much outside....we seem to take one step forward and two back with getting pre-winter chores done.

  11. #1251
    TxGal, we got exactly the same weather here, but a whole day later. Even the approx. 3" of rain. It's finally supposed to stop today and I'm really hoping the sun will come out. I hate cloudy days because my house cools down so much. Even winter sun produces a little warmth and my attached greenhouse gets warm enough that I can open the door to it and let a little warmth into the house on a sunny afternoon.

    If the sun comes out today I can rake leaves on the sidewalks and kennel. When I rake wet leaves, I don't have to wear a dust mask and don't get out of breath as quickly.

    Am looking forward to finishing the outdoor fall work so I can start knitting again.

    Still no freezing low temps my the ten-day forecast. Very strange. We used to get our first frost on or around October 21 here. I do't mind as I hate it when I finally have to drain the garden hose for the winter. A pail of water gets heavier every time I have to carry one outside for anything.

  12. #1252
    Quote Originally Posted by Martinhouse View Post
    As Melodi has said, a lot of us are not Christians, evangelical or otherwise. A lot of us have expressed appreciation for this thread but we shouldn't have to periodically beg for it.

    We might not find and post all of the excellent information like we've been getting up to now, but if we keep contributing when we have something to share from our own areas, we can still build a picture of how this GSM is progressing.

    One site I visit that has a fair amount of this type information. Robert Felix's iceagenow.info
    I totally agree, Martinhouse. I have a site to add. It has all sorts of fascinating information on weather for the world, with a beautiful realtime map of winds, atmospheric pressure, precipitation, etc.

    https://www.ventusky.com/?p=36;-86;2&l=pressure

  13. #1253
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    Quote Originally Posted by TxGal View Post
    Very well said, Martinhouse. The back and forth seems to be increasing, and rather odd. Felix's site was the first I discovered, and a good gateway to additional research for those that can carve out the time to do it.

    We had a huge cold front blow in Wednesday early evening, and in the span of a few hours got 3" of rainfall. At times it was so heavy it was like whiteout conditions. Thankfully no damage in our area, but there were tornado warnings in many areas. Ground is still too wet to do much outside....we seem to take one step forward and two back with getting pre-winter chores done.
    +1 on the iceageinfo site
    good info
    "A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects."
    Robert Heinlein

  14. #1254
    Pinecone, thanks for the link. I've bookmarked it and will explore the site as soon as I have time.

  15. #1255
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    Wonder what that was all about...


    WWG1WGA

    “Hope has two beautiful daughters; their names are Anger and Courage. Anger at the way things are, and Courage to see that they do not remain as they are.”
    St. Augustine of Hippo

  16. #1256
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    Quote Originally Posted by rolenrock View Post
    Wonder what that was all about...
    Don't know but he has said he was done about a half dozen times through the course of this thread and always come back. May just need a breather.

  17. #1257
    Last edited by von Koehler; 11-07-2018 at 09:08 PM.
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  18. #1258
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    Video from von Koehler's post above:

    http://youtu.be/M_yqIj38UmY

    https://youtu.be/M_yqIj38UmY

    Video length: 1:33:47 minutes. A bit hard to understand her as she is from the Ukraine. Most of the audience are global warming believers. Just skip over them.

    This is the most important video you could watch in your lifetime.

    She is the scientist who figured out the Sun's cycles and made amazingly accurate forecasts.

    Unfortunately for humanity, it's going to be far worse than first thought.

    At least a 15 degree Fahrenheit drop in temperatures.

    von Koehler
    The right of the people to keep and bear arms is an extension of the natural right to self-defense and a hallmark of personal sovereignty. It is specifically insulated from governmental interference by the Constitution and has historically been the linchpin of resistance to tyranny.” – Judge Andrew P. Napolitano

  19. #1259
    Thank you! Plan on listening to this tonight or early tomorrow.

  20. #1260
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    Thanks, downloading it as audio for listening.

  21. #1261
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    Very good video and info, and pretty darn concerning. About the last 10 minutes or so I think are perhaps the most important....wraps up the science and brings it to the conclusion of what we can expect. Serious crop problems, without a doubt. My thoughts immediately went to laying in more long term food storage, if not for us for the adult children. A lot. And ways to grow fresh vegetables in a protected environment at home, even if just leaf lettuce/kale, etc. This is serious, folks, more serious than even we who are aware were expecting.

    On a side note, this is the time of year we normally put down annual rye grass for some winter grazing for the livestock. I heard some rumblings that the grass seed crops had a rough year, just like other crops. Today we got the sticker shock. While it's available, it's $10 more than it was last year, and is now $40 per 50 lb bag. We'll do about 30 bags this year, and we're on small acreage. More than likely this will impact beef prices going forward. We're already feeding out hay and cattle cubes due to cooler and wetter weather. We're going through another series of cold fronts, and next week we're forecasted to dip below freezing for about 4 days. Way too early for this.

  22. #1262
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    Regarding Prof. Zharkova's video, the major items are she predicts the next grand minimum to be in the years 2020 - 2055 and that food shortages will be possible in the years 2028 - 2032.

    Here is the summary below the youtube video:

    Professor Valentina Zharkova gave a presentation of her Climate and the Solar Magnetic Field hypothesis at the Global Warming Policy Foundation in October, 2018.

    Principal component analysis (PCA) of the solar background magnetic field observed from the Earth, revealed four pairs of dynamo waves, the pair with the highest eigen values are called principal components (PCs).

    PCs are shown to be produced by magnetic dipoles in inner and outer layers of the Sun, while the second pair of waves is assumed produced by quadruple magnetic sources and so on. The PC waves produced by a magnetic dipole and their summary curve were described analytically and shown to be closely related to the average sunspot number index used for description of solar activity. Based on this correlation, the summary curve was used for the prediction of long-term solar activity on a millennial timescale. This prediction revealed the presence of a grand cycle of 350-400 years, with a remarkable resemblance to the sunspot and terrestrial activity features reported in the past millennia: Maunder (grand) Minimum (1645-1715), Wolf (grand) minimum (1200), Oort (grand) minimum (1010-1050), Homer (grand) minimum (800-900 BC); the medieval (900-1200) warm period, Roman (400-10BC) and other warm periods.

    This approach also predicts the modern grand minimum upcoming in 2020-2055. By utilising the two principal components of solar magnetic field oscillations and their summary curve, we extrapolate the solar activity backwards one hundred millennia and derive weaker oscillations with a period of 2000-2100years (a super-grand cycle) reflecting variations of magnetic field magnitude. The last super-grand minimum occurred during Maunder Minimum with magnetic field growing for 500 years (until ~2150) and decreasing for another 500 years. The most likely nature of this interaction will be discussed and used to explain long-term variations of solar magnetic field and irradiance observed from the Earth.
    The right of the people to keep and bear arms is an extension of the natural right to self-defense and a hallmark of personal sovereignty. It is specifically insulated from governmental interference by the Constitution and has historically been the linchpin of resistance to tyranny.” – Judge Andrew P. Napolitano

  23. #1263
    I just listened to Professor Aharkova's presentation. As stated, it was difficult to listen to...exhausting, actually...but I concentrated and tried to get as much as I could from it. It really adds another dimension to that causes of Grand Solar Minima.

    The last couple of years have been enough to see what's happening, to any one who bothers to pay attention. I guess people who don't grow anything at all might not notice, but I wonder why more people aren't talking about it and then doing something about it? Seems like nowadays not many people want to face facts that they don't like. Oh, well, that will make it easier for the few of us who see what's happening. We won't have to worry about running out of prep items in the immediate future if there isn't a sudden big demand for them.

    I liked the professor's comment about how it is possible to stay warm in a colder climate, but very difficult to grow enough food.

  24. #1264
    Von Koehler, when I went to the second of the two youtubes you posted today, my anti-virus program rejected it as having a virus.

    I don't intend to try to download it again, so I hope I haven't missed too much.

  25. #1265


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HSurWNqcRJc

    Valentina Zharkova and the Sun's Magnetic Fields. Bad News for Everyone.

    Lee Wheelbarger

    This is a great running commentary by someone who knows of and understands her work. Caution some cuss words flow freely.

    Strange, my anti-virus software says its safe.

    von Koehler
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  26. #1266
    I am not a scientist, so I had to listen to them twice to figure out what is her concern.

    Apparently the Sun has 4 magnetic dynamo currents. During the Maunder minimum,
    2 of these were out of sync. Temperatures dropped 1.5 degree Centigrade.

    She is predicting that during the Grand Solar Minimum ALL 4 currents will be out of sync. Some predictions are calling for a 8 degree Centigrade drop.

    This would result in severe swings in weather from bitter cold winters to brief but hot summers. Growing will be quite a challenge.

    Solar cycle 26 looks to be especially harsh. See post #1257 lower chart above.

    Program notes:

    Dr. Zharkova has previously been not just quite political with respect to the Global Warming agenda, but entirely reticent to speak to the effects of the GSM. Here, she decisively states we are entering a world of food scarcity, and need to prepare now.

    Professor Valentina Zharkova gave a presentation of her Climate and the Solar Magnetic Field hypothesis at the Global Warming Policy Foundation in October, 2018.

    Principal component analysis (PCA) of the solar background magnetic field observed from the Earth, revealed four pairs of dynamo waves, the pair with the highest eigen values are called principal components (PCs).

    PCs are shown to be produced by magnetic dipoles in inner and outer layers of the Sun, while the second pair of waves is assumed produced by quadruple magnetic sources and so on. The PC waves produced by a magnetic dipole and their summary curve were described analytically and shown to be closely related to the average sunspot number index used for description of solar activity. Based on this correlation, the summary curve was used for the prediction of long-term solar activity on a millennial timescale. This prediction revealed the presence of a grand cycle of 350-400 years, with a remarkable resemblance to the sunspot and terrestrial activity features reported in the past millennia: Maunder (grand) Minimum (1645-1715), Wolf (grand) minimum (1200), Oort (grand) minimum (1010-1050), Homer (grand) minimum (800-900 BC); the medieval (900-1200) warm period, Roman (400-10BC) and other warm periods.

    This approach also predicts the modern grand minimum upcoming in 2020-2055. By utilising the two principal components of solar magnetic field oscillations and their summary curve, we extrapolate the solar activity backwards one hundred millennia and derive weaker oscillations with a period of 2000-2100 years (a super-grand cycle) reflecting variations of magnetic field magnitude. The last super-grand minimum occurred during Maunder Minimum with magnetic field growing for 500 years (until ~2150) and decreasing for another 500 years. The most likely nature of this interaction will be discussed and used to explain long-term variations of solar magnetic field and irradiance observed from the Earth.

    von Koehler
    Last edited by von Koehler; 11-08-2018 at 02:53 PM.
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  27. #1267
    Guess I'll just skip this second one, but I did get a lot out of Professor Sharkov's presentation. That will have to do.

    And it's not like I need more convincing. Starting today we're getting slammed with a real cold dip that's going to kill the rest of the summer green stuff by Saturday morning, and then keep it up for another whole week at least.

    We aren't going to get anything that we haven't had before in November, but we used to work down to this chill from the highs of August. This time, we've had warm weather through the last couple of month, just dropping a little from week to week, but other than one other super chilly week, it's been gradual and now some extra cold is going to hit..

    GSM = expect the unexpected?

    Very unlikely that I will still be around for cycle 26. And if not, I hope my meager but well-thought-out preps for this will be of use to someone and not just go to waste.

  28. #1268
    Hmmm. I wonder what this means for our magnetic field. Will more solar radiation come in and fry sensitive plants, electronics, etc. Could be really interesting times coming.

  29. #1269
    Quote Originally Posted by Pinecone View Post
    Hmmm. I wonder what this means for our magnetic field. Will more solar radiation come in and fry sensitive plants, electronics, etc. Could be really interesting times coming.
    It's believed that the excessive levels of UV radiation will increase skin cancers.

    von Koehler
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  30. #1270
    I've always been an almost-redhead type, so I'm used to being careful of getting much sun. I have no problem getting outdoor work done super early on the days when it gets really hot.

    And I get cold so easily, that in moderate weather I can dress to stay covered when a lot of people would still want to be wearing shorts and tank tops. I have lots of broad brimmed hats and know how to make them if I have to.

    I wonder how the new UV3 will affect plants compared to the UV1 and UV 2 that they are used to? Note to self: Look into ordering more greenhouse plastic. A GSM will last a lot longer than a single piece of greenhouse plastic can withstand any type of sun. A greenhouse might be very necessary to provide some basic greens over some very long winters for perhaps even two more generations.

  31. #1271
    "She decisively states we are entering a world of food scarcity, and need to prepare now."

    That would be around the corner even w/o global cooling.
    You can't have First World prosperity with a Fourth World demographic.

  32. #1272
    Tomorrow I am taking my first cutting of broccoli leaves, The plants have rather exploded and I expect to get an enormous amount of dehydrated flaked greens from just this first picking. Kale might be ready for first harvest in about two more weeks. I'm hoping I'll get far more than enough for one year's needs.

    I think I've made a space in the greenhouse to plant three or four dozen garlic cloves, too. Not a lot, but plenty to be sure I've always got some around. I have twelve potato plants in there, too and will have to cover them when the temp drop a lot. I always keep potatoes around, too, in case the spring comes when such things are not available or in short supply from many people suddenly realizing they need to start growing their own food.

    There are always two kind of multiplier onions growing in the greenhouse, too. Not a lot, but plenty to help a few people get a start at growing them. Same with strawberry plants, which aren't as susceptible to killing frosts of late spring as fruit trees and early bushes. My blueberries are where they can be covered against a late frost.

    I'm not doing a lot more to prepare any more, since I am 75 and not in very good health any more. I now mostly just do the things I would be doing year to year as always, like gardening, canning and dehydrating. Also sewing and knitting.

    Raccoons have killed all my chickens and I will have to decide in the spring if I can still handle raising chicks from scratch. Eggs are so important, but I'll have to do without if I can't get rid of the raccoons first. And Im no longer able to build a nice varmint-proof coop and small pen, much as I'd like to.

  33. #1273
    Faroe, that is such an excellent point! It makes me think I'd better hope I can survive another winter and get new chicks as early as I can in the spring, provided such things are still available. I would get Buff Orpingtons, since they are said to be a good cold-weather bird, since they are so fluffy. (Plus, they are my favorites!)

  34. #1274
    Martinhouse, you do an amazing amount of gardening and preps. I'm impressed and inspired as I quickly gallop towards what I once thought was old age.

  35. #1275
    Pinecone, what a nice compliment! I seem to mostly sit around the last couple of years because my lungs have gotten so bad that I have to take tons of breaks...sit down and catch my breath. I don't mind the arthritis... it is from Lyme and has cycles so I do get some small spells of relief...and would gladly suffer it twice as bad if only I could breathe again and be strong enough to do all of the things I used to do. But I think lungs are the part of the body least able to repair themselves so I'll just keep on until I can't any more.

    I don't mind. I've had my run and if it wasn't the greatest, it was all my own doing and I'll go with no grudges toward anyone else.

    I couldn't find anyone to mow my lawn this year, so I can't rake leaves. I always used bagged leaves to protect my outdoor faucet from low temps, so this year I've bought 16 cheap Walmart pillows and may get four more tomorrow and double bagged them in leaf bags and will insulate with them. Somewhat expensive, but cheaper than what I'd pay a plumber if that faucet froze. I cover the whole mound with a tarp that's weighed down with the big coils of the drained garden hose.

    Stopped taking any meds at all over ten years ago and now I only take cod liver oil. I love to sit in my greenhouse and look at all the flowers and the greens. It smells like life when the rest of the world goes dead for the long cold months and being surrounded by all that life is the best medicine I know.

    Gee, sorry to get carried away here, but I guess I love talking about my garden things as even more than the sewing and knitting which I do in the winter. And everything I do now is definitely with an eye to the weather getting colder and very much more erratic and undependable. I almost wish I were half my age so I'd maybe have a chance of living long enough to see this Grand Solar Minimum through to the other side.

    Oh, well.

  36. #1276
    Join Date
    Oct 2001
    Location
    Green County, Kentucky
    Posts
    9,730
    Quote Originally Posted by Martinhouse View Post
    Faroe, that is such an excellent point! It makes me think I'd better hope I can survive another winter and get new chicks as early as I can in the spring, provided such things are still available. I would get Buff Orpingtons, since they are said to be a good cold-weather bird, since they are so fluffy. (Plus, they are my favorites!)
    Could you get a livestock guardian dog? They can be a big help, protecting your poultry and even your garden and you yourself.

    I've got Icelandic chickens -- they are really good foragers, hardy as can be, and good mothers. They are also pretty, out running around in the yard, and have greatly decreased the tick population in the yard.

    Kathleen
    Behold, these are the mere edges of His ways, and how small a whisper we hear of Him.
    Job 26:14

    wickr ID freeholder45

  37. #1277
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    On top of the Mountain
    Posts
    22,385
    I second the dog. I went with a Border Collie when I had fox problems and she stopped that cold. LGD would be easier to keep.
    "Dark and difficult times lie ahead. Soon we will all face the choice between what is right, and what is easy."
    Dumbledore to Harry Potter, Goblet of Fire.

    Luke 21:36

    A people who no longer recognize sin and evil, are not a people who will recognize tyranny and despotism either. Invar


    “During the course of your life you will find that things are not always fair. You will find that things happen to you that you do not deserve and that are not always warranted. But you have to put your head down and fight, fight, fight. Never, ever, ever give up!”

    - President Donald J. Trump

  38. #1278
    I had a great dog when I first moved here 41 years ago. She was part border collie and she took good care of my yard. The only time she snapped at a chicken was when one big hen pecked her on the nose while she was sniffing the hen. She once napped near a sheet I'd spread out with big sunflower heads to dry and she just knew that the interested cardinal was not to touch mama's sunflowers. She would sneak off and help the neighbors move recalcitrant cattle when horses and pickup trucks weren't getting the job done.

    I can no longer look after a dog or give one the attention it needs. I'd love to get an older one, but I can only have outside dogs and I couldn't do that to an older adoptee. I can't let my chickens free range any more because some of my new gardens do not have tops built on them plus I can no longer find anyone to mow my yard and it has turned into a jungle. Chicks would get lost.

    Right now I am having problems with raccoons and possums and a groundhog and squirrels. Skunks could show up at any time, too, except not until spring at this time.

    I really need to build some sort of new pen closer to the house that is totally enclosed. Hate to confine the birds, but I'd toss them all the weeds and clippings I could for most of the year. Not sure I'll be able to do any building at all by next spring. I wonder how it would work to put together those big chain link kennel panels with an actual nice door, and then attach a good sturdy top on it and cover the entire thing with chicken wire? Maybe the top could be made of some of the panels themselves?

  39. #1279
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    East Central Texas
    Posts
    1,859
    Quote Originally Posted by Martinhouse View Post
    I wonder how it would work to put together those big chain link kennel panels with an actual nice door, and then attach a good sturdy top on it and cover the entire thing with chicken wire? Maybe the top could be made of some of the panels themselves?
    Martinhouse, that's exactly what we did! We used to let ours free range, but one day a fox killed half our flock in a flash, and right next to our house. Our neighbors also are doing the same thing. In a way I feel a bit guilty, but we'll cut some grass and pitch it into the run. Honestly, they're doing very well and seem happy.

    We converted a garden shed that we got at Lowe's into a chicken house. We're using the front of the kennel with the door, and the two sides; the back piece we didn't use, because it backs up onto the shed house. That way we don't have to bend over at all. We open the shed door during the day, and shoo them in before dark. We've got hardware cloth secured all the way around the kennel, and it works. We have other neighbors that purchased one of those smallish chicken houses from Tractor Supply, and they put it inside the kennel. That way they have enclosed housing space within the kennel, but can also come and go within the kennel as they want to. Works great for them.

  40. #1280
    TxGal, how big is your chicken pen? My sister used a lot of those panels because when she moved to Arkansas she moved her whole cat shelter and had to buy those tall panels. I recall they were not cheap.

    I think if I covered the entire enclosure with chicken wire, it would keep out everything except smaller snakes. And I've learned the hard way to put something down around the edges where the birds tend to dig. I've also learned that the door should not be at the bottom of any slope because the stuff chickens scratch always end up as far downhill as it can go.

    When my first chickens free ranged, years ago, I had a big area two concrete blocks high, that I fed them in and tossed in all food and garden scraps. In nice weather I'd even go out and sit on the wall when I did things like peeling carrots. When I cleaned harvested kale, the chickens would come right up and steal kale right out of my hands and as much as they could grab from the big tubs of it. I also put all the raked leaves from my big yard into it. By spring all the scraps, weeds, leaves and chicken poop made what I used to call my very own black gold. It was fabulous.

    If I did make a kennel for chickens, I would probably just tarp half of it on top and the north south and west sides. We almost never get any wind from the east, and NEVER a cold wind. I'd attach a roost bar with ladder under the back of the tarped enclosure, with a 2 x 4 ladder, which is still around here somewhere from a previous chicken house. I would probably make a triple nest box right near the door and keep the feed cans against the kennel at the same place, only on the outside.

    I wonder how big I should make something like this? Probably for ten hens and a rooster. I have no idea how big those kennel panels are, nor how much they cost, This might be something to check out soon.

    I could likely build something cheaper with cattle panels covered with chicken wire, again tarping at least half of it, but then I'd have to build a door and it's frame, and I really don't want to do that, even if I'm still able to.

    Well, I suppose this is too much for this thread but it IS related to my prepping for colder weather along with my lessening ability to do things, especially if it's going to be a lot colder most of the time.

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