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The Grand Solar Minimum
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  1. #801
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...pply-of-frites

    The chips are down in Belgium as heatwave hits supply of frites. [The American term used for frites is "French Fries" but they were invented in Belgium.]

    Reduced yields are putting national dish and ‘symbol of Belgium’ under threat.

    Daniel Boffey in Brussels

    Fri 10 Aug 2018

    People eat frites in Belgium. The heat impacts on the yield and size of potatoes.
    Food vendors in Belgium are praying for rain as the hot weather threatens the supply of the country’s national dish, frites.

    The heat wave has shrunk Belgium’s early crop of potatoes by about one-third compared with an average year. Without significant rainfall over the next few weeks, the key September and October harvests could be smaller still.

    The heat impacts not only the yield, but the size of the potatoes and the roughness of their skins. If they are too tough, they cannot be handled by the peeling machines used by chip manufacturers.

    The price of the bintje potato, the traditional variety used in creating the frite, or frieten, as people say in the Flemish-speaking north of the country where the crisis has most been felt, has already shot up. And it is likely to rise further, turning the cheap Belgian snack into a rather expensive one.

    Bernard Lefèvre, the president of Unafri-Navefri, the stallowners’ association, told Politico: “It’s a subject that is at the heart of our job.

    “Prices have already increased and potatoes will be smaller, but it isn’t clear yet. We are hopeful. It’s the first time Belgians are praying for more rain ...

    “Frites are essential. It is vital. It is part of our culture. It’s more than a product – it’s a symbol of Belgium.”

    Belgium, not noted for a lack of rain, has applied to the EU for emergency funds to deal with the drought, which has most heavily impacted the north of Flanders, in terms of the quantity and quality of potatoes.

    “We can’t know if the harvest is 100% good or bad until September, but it’s true that if everything continues like it is, it’s not great for frites,” Lefèvre said.

    Romain Cools, the secretary general of Belgapom, the country’s largest potato grower, said: “Drought combined with heat kills plants. This is disadvantageous, especially for the early potatoes that are harvested at this time.

    “It is a disaster in the fields that the farmers could not irrigate. We record losses of around 30% ... This year, the market looks very different from last year.

    “In 2017, a tonne of potatoes was trading at €25
    because the supply was very substantial. Now, we are talking about €250 to €300 per tonne.”


    [That's over a 10 times price increase! von Koehler]
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  2. #802
    Last year we got 11 inches of rain here in my part of Arkansas. It is unheard of to get more than a trace of afternoon showers in August here.

    We just got and inch and three-quarters of rain overnight, on top of a few inches since the first of the month. If we get as much rain as is predicted in our ten-day forecast, we will be around ten inches of rain by the 20th of this month.

    The weather, it's a-changin'. Hoping we aren't heading for a winter where all we do is wish the sun would shine!

    Even if there's an extra-cloudy winter ahead, I'm still glad I moved south from Minnesota when I did! And I'm especially glad that the move got me out of a big city!

  3. #803
    https://watchers.news/2018/08/15/the...ugust-14-2018/

    2 months' worth of rain in just a few hours floods parts of Ocean County, New Jersey
    Nearly 203.2 mm (8 inches) of rain has fallen in just a few hours in parts of Ocean County, New Jersey on August 13, which is almost 2 months' worth of rain. The National Weather Service said radar and automated rain gauges showed some sections of Monmouth County, including Howell, Neptune and Wall, also were hit hard, with as much as 127 to 203.2 mm (5 to 8 inches) of rain.

    States of emergency have been declared in Brick and Howell due to flooded roads, officials said, adding that more than 100 evacuations were made in the Greenbriar I section of Brick Township because of flash flooding.
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  4. #804
    https://watchers.news/2018/08/14/pen...storm-setting/

    Pennsylvania experiencing one of the most dramatic outbreaks of rain in a non-tropical storm setting



    Posted by TW on August 14, 2018 in categories Featured articles, Floods, Severe weather

    Pennsylvania experiencing one of the most dramatic outbreaks of rain in a non-tropical storm setting

    Although parts of the northeastern United States have already received record-breaking rainfall this summer, persistent rainfall and flooding are likely to continue.

    "The weather pattern this summer is one of the most dramatic outbreaks of rain ever to hit Pennsylvania and other states in the region in a non-tropical storm setting," AccuWeather's Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams said.

    The recent deluge has been on par with the type of rainfall that can be unleashed by a tropical storm or hurricane, Abrams writes.



    For example, at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton International Airport, Pennsylvania, 110.2 mm (4.34 inches) of rain fell on August 13, which shattered the old record for the date set in 1955 when Hurricane "Connie" moved northwestward across Pennsylvania. The location received more rain on August 13 than what typically falls in the entire month of August.

    State College municipality has already recorded its wettest summer on record, Abrams continues, adding that Williamsport is likely to have two back-to-back months of record rainfall. Following the wettest July on record, the wettest August on record is on the doorstep, he said.

    According to data provided by AccuWeather, it has rained on 44 out of 75 days this summer in State College. Typically, it rains one out of every three to four days in the summer. Since June 1, the municipality recorded 516.9 mm (20.35 inches) of rain, breaking the previous record of 488.4 mm (19.23 inches) set in 2003.

    Since June 1, Harrisburg received 493.5 mm (19.43 inches) of rain. The normal for this period is 244 mm (9.61 inches). Since July 1, the city received 406.4 mm (16 inches) of rain. The normal for that period is 152.4 mm (6 inches).

    Another record breaker is Elmira in New York where more rain fell in just 24 hours on August 13 and 14 than the city usually receives during the entire month of August (105.4 mm / 4.15 inches vs. 92.2 mm / 3.63 inches).
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  5. #805
    [From the past actual historical records it seems that there is a huge variation on how long a solar minimum could last---anywhere from 30 years to 150 years.

    This implies that for many adults alive today, it will affect the rest of their lives; and quite possibly their children. von Koehler]




    The modern "Eddy" minimum will be assigned it's starting and ending point after the event has transpired and not a moment prior. It may be that cycle 24 was the start of the modern "Eddy" minimum as some suggest. I am of the opinion that the minimum we are entering will be remembered as the starting point of the modern minimum. Therefore, ORP's official position is the GSM is beginning now at the minimum of cycle 24 and the start of cycle 25. This transition will take 3 years to transpire. Grand minima are time periods that reflect a listless sun, nothing more. The consequences of solar grand minima on planet Earth however are a different story. Add the waning magnetosphere and you have a recipe for global disaster.
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  6. #806
    I buy a vegetable box from our local organic farmers, some of which is their own produce and some is important; about two weeks ago the announced their potato crop was a nearly total failure due to a combination of late planting (severe cold and rain) followed by a drought (hot weather for Ireland, around 80 degrees combined with no rain for 40 days and 40 nights - or so the media said).

    It is cooler and wetter now, but mostly too little and too late; still not as bad as a few years ago when potatoes were running as much as 60 dollars a bag (a blight year) but bad enough and with prices rising, even for the imported ones.
    expatriate Californian living in rural Ireland with husband, dogs, horses. garden and many, many cats

  7. #807
    We have again dodged major rain that has missed us to the south and east... central NY and Pennsylvania got clobbered again yesterday.

    So far, if the current pattern (I've been observing it for over 2 years now, summer and winter) holds true, we might actually be in a decent place to survive and thrive in these changing times. Yes, we're too far north, but get some modrration of temperatures thanks to the great lakes. If the excessive moisture doesnt clobber us, especially in the growing season, we should be ok.

    Summerthyme

  8. #808
    Quote Originally Posted by Melodi View Post
    I buy a vegetable box from our local organic farmers, some of which is their own produce and some is important; about two weeks ago the announced their potato crop was a nearly total failure due to a combination of late planting (severe cold and rain) followed by a drought (hot weather for Ireland, around 80 degrees combined with no rain for 40 days and 40 nights - or so the media said).

    It is cooler and wetter now, but mostly too little and too late; still not as bad as a few years ago when potatoes were running as much as 60 dollars a bag (a blight year) but bad enough and with prices rising, even for the imported ones.
    That's awful, Melodi. How many pounds (stone) is a bag? I remember when we lived in England how important potatoes were in the local diet.

  9. #809
    Quote Originally Posted by Melodi View Post
    I buy a vegetable box from our local organic farmers, some of which is their own produce and some is important; about two weeks ago the announced their potato crop was a nearly total failure due to a combination of late planting (severe cold and rain) followed by a drought (hot weather for Ireland, around 80 degrees combined with no rain for 40 days and 40 nights - or so the media said).

    It is cooler and wetter now, but mostly too little and too late; still not as bad as a few years ago when potatoes were running as much as 60 dollars a bag (a blight year) but bad enough and with prices rising, even for the imported ones.
    How much have prices changed? Potatoes? Other vegetables?

    von Koehler
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  10. #810
    Quote Originally Posted by summerthyme View Post
    We have again dodged major rain that has missed us to the south and east... central NY and Pennsylvania got clobbered again yesterday.

    So far, if the current pattern (I've been observing it for over 2 years now, summer and winter) holds true, we might actually be in a decent place to survive and thrive in these changing times. Yes, we're too far north, but get some modrration of temperatures thanks to the great lakes. If the excessive moisture doesnt clobber us, especially in the growing season, we should be ok.

    Summerthyme
    How much has animal feed costs changed? Hay?

    von Koehler
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  11. #811
    With our present cool-down and the return of adequate rain, I'm starting to wonder, based on what I'm reading here and elsewhere, if I should maybe try to get some root crops started right now? I would plant them in containers along the fences, where I'd be able to attach covers for protection if there would be any early cold snaps.

    A long cool autumn would be wonderful for growing turnips, carrots and beets. All of these would be good to have for the rabbits and chickens as well as for myself. Even a very warm autumn would be okay for a second garden, since the real heat of summer likely is pretty much over.

  12. #812
    I don't have large animals to feed, but I'll try to remember to ask about rising prices next time I'm at the feed store.

  13. #813
    The large bags tend to be about 20 pounds or 10 kilos (I can't do stones to save my life) and it was those bags that were about 40 Euros/60 dollars at the time; prices are not that high yet, largely because we now have huge import discounters like Lidle's and Aldi.

    Until this past week, I was mostly just using potatoes from our box of organic veg (either their own or the imported ones they put in) because we like potatoes but only eat so many a week.

    But now that I'm feeding about five people who are helping clear the house including two tweenage boys (10 and 11) who were undernourished and raised on French Fires and Sausage rolls (Mom has the care of three of her own younger, adult disabled siblings and has no kitchen) I just bought a 10 pound bag of "cheap" potatoes and I don't remember exactly but the sort that are usually a "loss leader" for as little as three Euro were at least five or seven euros.

    The Imported Potatoes formally are known as Cyprus Potatoes before the Crash, now called "Italian" that is my favorite here; are usually only around for a few weeks at the start of Summer and then go away.

    They were always a bit expensive but I would buy them as a special treat, they are actually coming down a bit in price but are STILL HERE in August which I have never seen before in over 20 years here. They are still expensive (5 to 7 Euros for a small bag of 6 to 10 European sized potatoes, with the occasional American sized larger one); now while the price is lower the potatoes are larger which works for me but doesn't sell well here.

    It also suggests that Italy and Spain got longer potatoes growing seasons this year where it wasn't too hot and they traditionally have to use irrigation for agriculture which Ireland almost never does.

    If I do a garden next year with our new friends, I plan on making room for irrigation ditches if we need them; believe it or not that technically isn't legal (hosepipe bans) but it will be in the backyard and we can use some grey water (though appliances here tend not to leave much of that).

    Also I feel if large farmers can use water, my garden can use a bit too as long as we do it sensibly.
    expatriate Californian living in rural Ireland with husband, dogs, horses. garden and many, many cats

  14. #814
    CO2 Absorption Spectrum

    http://nov79.com/gbwm/ntyg.html

    There is no Valid Mechanism for CO2 Creating Global Warming


    Heat cannot be trapped in the atmosphere, because it radiates away in femto seconds.



    Trapping Heat

    All molecules vibrate constantly, which causes them to emit radiation constantly. That type of radiation is called infrared, black body radiation. The amount of radiation emitted depends upon the temperature. The Stefan-Boltzmann constant is used to indicate how much radiation is given off by matter at any temperature, though the constant is not accurate.

    The planet is cooled by radiation which goes around greenhouse gases, not through them.



    radiation

    Absorption Peaks

    Carbon dioxide absorbs infrared radiation (IR) in three narrow bands of wavelengths, which are 2.7, 4.3 and 15 micrometers (µM). This means that most of the heat producing radiation escapes it. About 8% of the available black body radiation is picked up by these "fingerprint" frequencies of CO2.

    Several decades ago, before global warming was an issue, scientists concluded that carbon dioxide blocked 8% of the infrared radiation from going through the atmosphere. This is consistent with bandwidth. The width of the 15 micron peak is two microns wide from outer edges of shoulders.

    The total range of infrared radiation, called black body radiation, is about 100 microns, tapering off after 50 microns. Black body radiation is all infrared radiation given off by matter. It increases with temperature.





    A measured absorption spectrum is shown here. See an exactly measured 15 micron peak in Heinz Hug's paper.

    Heinz Hug showed that carbon dioxide in the air absorbs to extinction at its 15µM peak in about ten meters. This means that CO2 does whatever it's going to do in that amount of space. Twice as much CO2 would do the same thing in about 5m. There's no significant difference between 5m and 10m for global warming, because convectional currents mix the air in such short distances.

    Attempted Fix

    This is nothing new. Climate scientists know that more CO2 does not result in more heat under usual conditions. So the mythologists among them try to salvage the global warming propaganda by pretending that something esoteric occurs higher in the atmosphere. The difference is that the absorption peaks for CO2 separate from the peaks for water vapor. Then supposedly, radiation which misses CO2 does not get picked up by water vapor and travels into outer space; and more CO2 causes less radiation to get missed on the shoulders of the peaks.

    Everything about that rationalization stretches reality to a point of misrepresentation. The increase in CO2 levels could only be relevant for the last cycle of absorption near the outer edges of the atmosphere, where there is not enough influence of the lower atmosphere to be significant. But the rationalizers claim it is significant in the mid levels of atmosphere. Not so. Doubling the CO2 would only shorten the distance of radiation travel before total absorption occurs.

    What Miniscule Shoulders Mean



    This image is the distance infrared radiation travels at the present concentration of CO2 in the air.

    distance

    The outer edges of the shoulders of the absorption peaks are said to be unsaturated, because they don't absorb all radiation available to them. The unsaturated area is virtually nonexistent. The image at right shows how the distance of absorption increases as shoulder molecules get thinner. Where the molecules are one tenth the density, the distance is ten times as much, which is 100 meters. Where the density is one hundredth, the distance is 1,000 meters. Where is the unsaturation supposed to be? Fake equations are contrived to show a result in contradiction to the obvious logic.

    The green part of the image is the absorption spectrum superimposed onto the atmospheric effects. The yellow areas on the edges of the shoulders are supposedly where the heat is added to the atmosphere.

    The question is phrased in terms of what happens when CO2 in the atmosphere is doubled. Doubling only shortens the distance the radiation travels before being completely absorbed, as shown in the small image.

    distance

    Spreading miniscule radiation over long distance means the supposed heat is spread extremely thin. It means the effect is ridiculous.

    At mid levels of the atmosphere, the center of the peaks would absorb at about 30m instead of 10m, while the shoulders would absorb at about 300m instead of 100m. Reducing those distance by half is not relevant. But just like relativity, if it takes more than a mouthful of arguing to prove them wrong, frauds decree the obfuscation to be fact.

    As shown on the page titled "Crunching the Numbers," the quantities involved are so miniscule as to be totally incapable of causing global warming.

    The Fraud

    Frauds are creating the impression, and uninformed persons such as Al Gore are assuming, that all of the heat on the planet is bouncing right back on top of everyone due to carbon dioxide. The image above shows what all scientists know—that only the most infinitesimal amount of heat is even in question.

    There's another major reason why the fix is unreal. Supposedly, it is the outer shoulders on the CO2 peaks which are responsible for global warming. Not only is a small percent of the CO2 influenced by the shoulder radiation, but the distance increases for absorption. There is more nitrogen and oxygen per CO2 molecule in this area. Dilution reduces the temperature increase per unit of energy. If there is 5% as much CO2 on the shoulders, it is spread over 20 times as much space in the atmosphere. This means the temperature effect on the shoulders should be multiplied times 5% twice—once for the decrease in amount of CO2 and once for the dilution of the energy in the atmosphere. So much dilution of so few molecules could not be responsible for a significant amount of temperature increase.

    The miniscule area of concern on the shoulders of the absorption peak for CO2 is shown on one of Heinz Hug's graphs.

    Most of the infrared radiation in the atmosphere is emitted from the atmosphere, not the ground. Heat causes all matter to emit black body radiation, and this includes the atmosphere. Most climatologists have been adhering to the concept that the radiation emitted high in the atmosphere is most relevant.

    The image at right shows what happens to radiation emitted in the atmosphere. It travels a short distance and gets absorbed, when it is of a suitable wavelength. At ground level, the wavelength which is centered on 15 microns travels about 10 meters before getting absorbed by CO2, while nearby wavelengths, between 14 and 16 microns, travel about 100 meters. At the top of the troposphere, the distance is about ten times as much.

    When the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is doubled, the distances are reduced to one half, as shown in the right hand portion of the image.

    It's important to realize that climate alarmists are contradicting this concept in pretending that radiation goes through the atmosphere without saturating. If that were true, each dot would be larger than the troposphere, and the edges would extend beyond the troposphere and into the stratosphere.

    Pretending that radiation goes through the atmosphere at wavelengths absorbed by CO2 is the most basic fraud of climate alarmists. They apply the Beers-Lambert analysis to the atmosphere pretending to calculate how much energy is held up in the atmosphere as carbon dioxide increases. That type of analysis only applies to purified conditions in a laboratory, where some of the radiation continues to go through the gas. It does not apply to saturation, were all of the radiation gets absorbed in a short distance. So climatologists modified the Beers-Lambert analysis and replaced it with a fudge factor which gives them a similar logarithmic curve and then tacked on a constant which produces the result they want, as described on the page titled Fake Equations.

    curve

    Ill-Informed Assumptions

    The assumption of some persons is that shorter distances mean the heat stays in the atmosphere longer before escaping into space. Supposedly, the radiation will be re-emitted and re-absorbed more often, when distances are shorter. But they err in two ways. One is in not taking into account the convection which removes the relevance of short distances. The other is in assuming the direction is toward space.

    When radiation is re-emitted in the atmosphere, it moves in all directions. The energy does not move closer to space, because it is not directional. The way heat moves toward the outer atmosphere is either through convectional currents or long wave infrared radiation which is not affected by greenhouse gasses.

    Here's how the dynamic works. The IR is emitted from the surface of the earth as black body radiation, which has a wide bandwidth. Then CO2 absorbs a fingerprint set of frequencies, which is 8% of the available black body radiation. As it is absorbed, it is instantly converted into heat (in less than a pico second). The heat is distributed over all molecules in the atmosphere, which means 78% nitrogen and 21% oxygen. After some time, an equivalent amount of black body radiation is emitted from everything in the atmosphere, and 8% of it is absorbed by CO2 as fingerprint radiation.

    The amount of delay before re-emission determines how much heat is held within the atmosphere. No one knows how much time delay there is, so no one knows how much heat the atmosphere should hold in the processes of releasing it into space. The temperature can be measured, but theory cannot be applied through the fake science and computer models being applied to the subject.

    Another ill-informed assumption is that radiation absorbed by CO2 must be re-emitted by CO2 in exactly the same way it was absorbed, because electrons jump to a higher orbit when absorbing and must fall back to a lower orbit when emitting.

    Electrons changing orbit does not apply to global warming. Electron orbit shift only applies to things like fluorescence or lasing. Global warming is about so-called finger print radiation being absorbed. This is due to covalent bonds stretching and bending during vibrations, where no electrons shift orbits.

    This means that when finger print radiation is absorbed the energy is instantly converted to heat as increased vibration of the molecule. If the energy as heat is re-emitted by transforming into radiation, it is emitted as black body radiation, which all matter emits based on its temperature.

    Some supposed experts insist that CO2 will absorb and instantly re-emit at the same wavelength in the atmosphere. They are wrong, but if they were right, it would be irrelevant, because instantly re-emitting at the same wavelength is no different from not absorbing at all. No heat is produced.

    Fakes like to make claims of that sort, because there is no detectable difference between it happening and it not happening, so no one can prove them wrong. But then what relevance would it be? Spewing fraud has the purpose of stripping rationality from the subject.

    Basic principles create knowledge in science allowing claims and predictions to be accurate without tests. Incompetent persons try to strip knowledge and rationality from science, because it leaves them behind and exposes their corruptness.

    Proponents do not have clear explanations for their assumptions. They use computer models and juggle the numbers until they get the results they want.

    Redirected Radiation

    I notice that fakes keep referring to radiation which is directed back to the surface of the earth. Often, the whole concept of how greenhouse gasses create global warming is described in terms of such radiation being redirected to the surface of the earth.

    back radiationThe concept of redirected radiation is absurd. The wavelengths in question saturate, meaning they get totally absorbed. They can't travel far enough to get to the surface of the earth, unless they are emitted from air which is very close to the earth's surface. Such radiation certainly can't get from the top of the troposphere to the surface of the earth. If greenhouse gasses are absorbing radiation on its way up, they are going to absorb it on its way down.

    The above explanations apply to this. There is no reflection involved. Greenhouse gasses absorb at one set of wavelengths (fingerprint radiation) and emit at a different set (black body radiation) after some delay.

    All matter absorbs and emits black body radiation. This includes the atmosphere and CO2 in the atmosphere. If the earth were giving off significant black body radiation, it would be absorbed by the whole atmosphere, not just the greenhouse gasses, which absorb a small percent of the wavelengths as fingerprint radiation. But the earth only gives up its energy as 1% black body radiation, in my estimate, while fakes say it is 40%. Whatever it is, the matter in the atmosphere will absorb it without greenhouse gasses, but in longer distances. Greenhouse gasses only shorten the distance that some wavelengths get absorbed.

    Saturation makes the entire subject of what greenhouse gasses do irrelevant. The planet is cooled by radiation which goes around the greenhouse gasses, not through them. Increasing the amount of greenhouse gasses does nothing. See It's Like a River, Not a Window

    All biology is on the verge of becoming extinct due to a shortage of carbon dioxide in the air, which is needed for photosynthesis. There was five times as much CO2 in the air during dinosaur years, and twenty times as much when modern photosynthesis began.

    CO2 History



    Background Information:

    The fingerprint type of IR absorption is due to stretching and bending of internal bonds. Nitrogen does not do that. But all matter absorbs and emits IR in proportion to its temperature. This is called "black body" radiation. Physicists say all matter has the same characteristics in absorbing and emitting black body radiation, except that the quantitative proportions vary, mostly due to reflection. For nonreflective substances, such as wood and concrete, the percent IR absorbed or emitted (called emissivity or absorptivity) is around 90% of a perfect black body. Metals are good reflectors of IR, so they have an emissivity of around 50%. This means they emit or absorb about 50% of the infrared radiation which contacts them. Kirchhoff's law says emissivity equals absorptivity, which means everything absorbs and emits black body radiation in the same way.

    There is a curve for black body radiation, and it applies to all matter. The curve slides toward higher frequencies for higher temperatures. At earth temperatures (around 300 degrees Kelvin) the black body curve (or Planks curve) peaks at a wavelength of about 10然. The sides of the curve taper off at about 1然 and 30然. Visible light is 0.4 to 0.8然, which is just above the curve for cold black body radiation, but hot objects will radiate into the visible range, which is of course how an incandescent light bulb works. Carbon dioxide has fingerprint peaks at 2.7, 4.3 and 15然, which are all within the black body radiation curve.

    In some quantity, everything in the air including nitrogen and oxygen absorbs and emits black body radiation at frequencies which overlap the frequencies absorbed by CO2. In fact, the only reason why there is IR in the air is because the surface of the earth emits black body radiation in proportion to its temperature. The air then does the same thing at some level.

    The question then is, in what quantity is the atmosphere absorbing and emitting black body radiation. The emissivity of nitrogen and oxygen gasses should be closed to 100%, since they do not reflect IR significantly. But the larger question is how does the quantity of black body absorption compare to the fingerprint absorption of CO2. Actual measurements and numbers do not seem to exist. So promoters use computer models and pull numbers out of the hat which say increases in CO2 levels will create a global temperature increase of about 6蚓. This is about 20% of the 33蚓 which the atmosphere is said to contribute to the temperature of the globe.

    The reason why CO2 absorbs fingerprint radiation but emits almost none, is because all molecules absorb a lot of radiation and emit very little. This is why black asphalt heats in the sun. It absorbs most of the radiation and emits almost none. Radiation leaves almost entirely as black body radiation, because vibration of whole molecules, which creates black body radiation, is vastly greater than vibration within molecules, which creates fingerprint radiation.

    There are about 30 times as many water vapor molecules in the air as CO2 molecules, and water vapor has a more effective fingerprint spectrum which is about three times wider than that of CO2. It is also much more variable. This means water vapor will swamp whatever CO2 does. It is obviously not being honest to say CO2 does twenty percent of the heating, when there is a hundred times as much effect by water vapor doing the same thing.

    1. Charney, J. G., Arakawa, A., Baker, D., Bolin, B., Dickerso, R., Goody, R., Leith, C., Stommel, H.M. & Wunsch, C.I. 1979 Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment. Washington, DC. National Academy of Sciences Press.
    http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/~brianpm/d...ney_report.pdf

    3. Hansen, J., I. Fung, A. Llacis, D. Rind, S. Lebedeff, R. Ruedy, G. Russell, and P. Stone, 1988. Global Climate Changes as Forcast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Three Dimensional Model. J. Geophys. Res. 93:9341-9364.
    http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha02700w.html

    4. Myhre, G., E.J. Highwood, K.P. Shine, and F. Stordal, 1998. New estimates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases. Geophys. Res. Lett. 25:2715-2718.
    http://go.owu.edu/~chjackso/Climate/...yhre_1998_New%
    20eatimates%20of%20radiative%20forcing%20due%20to%
    20well%20mixed%20greenhouse%20gasses.pdf
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  15. #815


    Soybean Field Sunset

    MARKETING>CROP REPORT

    https://www.cornandsoybeandigest.com...across-midwest

    Spotty corn, soybean outlook across Midwest

    Researchers and farmers offer Midwest crop update during NCSRP meeting.

    Aug 15, 2018


    A spotty corn and soybean outlook across the Midwest was the general feeling among farmers and researchers who attended the North Central Soybean Research Program (NCSRP) held last week. Carol Brown, environmental communications specialist with Iowa Soybean Association, offered these comments from staff and farmers.

    Linda Kull (staff), Illinois: Crops were ahead of schedule through July, but now are about 10 percent off from last year. We could use rain now. The crops in the southern part of the state look good, some of the best we’ve seen. Producers planted corn early and got hurt with the early heat. The soybean crop is excellent.

    Ariel Kittle (staff), Indiana: The state had a slow start to the growing season. We didn’t seem to have a spring, with temperatures going from cold directly to hot. We are in desperate need of rain now with areas of burnout in the state.

    Tom Adam (farmer), Iowa: Southern Iowa has been very dry and northern Iowa has been swamped. Where I’m at in southeast Iowa, we’re sitting pretty good. Central Iowa needs rain desperately now.

    Ron Ohlde (farmer), Kansas: We were exceptionally dry all spring, but planting conditions for wheat were good. We also didn’t seem to have a spring season, going from cold to hot temperatures. Western Kansas has had good rains but also bad storms. Southern and eastern Kansas have been very dry or spotty. Soybean conditions are over the place, very spotty.

    Mark Seaman (staff), Michigan: The crops had a tough start in the spring with areas of the state receiving 13 inches of snow, then 5 inches of rain. We’re still trying to get over this. We’ve had a lot of prevent-planting. There is moderate drought in the state now and the northern part is even drier. We’re not expecting a bumper crop.

    Cecil Demott (farmer), Missouri: Crops are two weeks ahead of previous years. There were timely rains, especially in the bootheel area where crops are in very good shape. The north-central portion of the state is dry and northwest even drier. Central Missouri had the hottest May on record and pastures here are in terrible shape.

    Larry Tonniges (farmer), Nebraska: It was dry early this spring and the planted corn just sat there, not able to get going. There have been several areas wiped out from summer storms. The soybeans are looking the best of all the crops right now. We are testing for soybean cyst nematodes (SCN) across the state now.

    Kendall Nichols (staff), North Dakota: North Dakota got a late start, receiving 18 inches of snow in April. Since then we received plenty of moisture at the right time. The state is down 300,000 acres of soybeans this growing season, bringing total soy acres to 6.8 million. We are two to three weeks ahead on all crops. Small grain harvest will be wrapped up next week.

    Tom Fontana (staff), Ohio: Weather extremes have been the issue where there is no such thing as a normal rain. Planting began in mid-April; the spring was cold and then the temperatures went straight to summer. The crops look really good in some areas and not as good in others.

    Craig Converse (farmer), South Dakota: The state is a tale of two worlds from excessively wet to quite dry. The crops seem to be going backwards now. Although, the corn crop should be record-setting. There are low areas where the soybeans are struggling.

    Mike Cerny (farmer), Wisconsin: The crops in the state are looking good. Corn and beans were planted by the end of May. So far, it has been a stress-free season.

    The North Central Soybean Research Program, a collaboration of 12 state soybean associations, invests soybean checkoff funds to improve yields and profitability via university research and extension.
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  16. #816
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    Quote Originally Posted by von Koehler View Post
    How much has animal feed costs changed? Hay?

    von Koehler
    Summerthyme, have you seen hay price increases up there?

    We seem to be seeing a widespread increase in round bale prices for coastal hay. While they were running around $70 - $80, now that some ranchers are starting to stockpile hay for winter, I'm seeing prices of $100 a bale becoming more common. That's a huge jump, but much of Texas has been in a drought. Normally we'll see most ranches with rounds already stocked in barns, but we've haven't seen much of that yet. When they do start to buy hay in large quantities for winter stockpiling, we'll likely see even higher prices and quite possibly some shortages.

  17. #817




    electric discharge in upper atmosphere called spites; green streaks are meteors
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  18. #818


    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DkY-aFYX0AAbKbB.jpg

    three water sprouts in Sweden
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  19. #819
    Quote Originally Posted by TxGal View Post
    Summerthyme, have you seen hay price increases up there?

    We seem to be seeing a widespread increase in round bale prices for coastal hay. While they were running around $70 - $80, now that some ranchers are starting to stockpile hay for winter, I'm seeing prices of $100 a bale becoming more common. That's a huge jump, but much of Texas has been in a drought. Normally we'll see most ranches with rounds already stocked in barns, but we've haven't seen much of that yet. When they do start to buy hay in large quantities for winter stockpiling, we'll likely see even higher prices and quite possibly some shortages.
    What were the prices last year? Were there any shortages last year?

    von Koehler
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  20. #820
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    Quote Originally Posted by von Koehler View Post
    What were the prices last year? Were there any shortages last year?

    von Koehler
    $60-$70 a round bale last year. No shortages last year, we had good rainfall overall. This year, though, most areas missed at least the first cut of hay due to a long, cold and too wet for haying spring. Then the rain stopped. Three cuts is an average year, so I guess by law of math we're down 30% in hay supply.

  21. #821
    Just seen a Craigslist ad for $45 for the big round bales, fresh cut and I think we will have at least 4 cuts this year on prairie hay.

    Oklahoma

  22. #822
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    Quote Originally Posted by West View Post
    Just seen a Craigslist ad for $45 for the big round bales, fresh cut and I think we will have at least 4 cuts this year on prairie hay.

    Oklahoma
    Y'all are very lucky! I saw Craiglist ads from Arizona yesterday on our local listings. If there isn't much demand up there I'd bet North Texas would love to have your hay!

    Here's one for Milo at $70 a bale....Milo! https://collegestation.craigslist.or...667875000.html

    Alfalfa squares from New Mexico for $17 a bale https://collegestation.craigslist.or...671953039.html

    Just north of Austin here's one for $110 a bale horse quality coastal, plus delivery https://austin.craigslist.org/grd/d/...667329138.html

    Austin is about 2 hrs from us, College Station an hr. Lower cost hay we're seeing has been out in the pasture for a good while, in 100+ degree temps. Not a whole lot of barn storage for rounds out here, only on the bigger ranches.

  23. #823
    https://watchers.news/2018/08/17/the...ugust-16-2018/

    Colorado Springs hailstorm caused second highest damage total on record, Colorado
    The August 6th storm that hit southwest Colorado Springs and Fountain with up to softball-size hail caused $172.8 million in damage to vehicles, roofs, siding, windows, skylights and other parts of homes, an insurance trade group said August 15.

    The total is the second highest on record for the Colorado Springs area, slightly exceeding the $169 million in damage from a June 13 hailstorm that also hit Fountain.

    Both events, however, trailed the July 2016 storm that caused $352.8 million in damage to vehicles, homes and other property.

    Last week’s storm ranks as state's 14th most expensive hailstorm, The Gazette reports.

    'Worst hail storm in memory' hits La Veta, Colorado
    Many long-time locals are calling August 14th hailstorm the worst in memory. The storm lasted 10 minutes, dropping golf-ball sized hails and leaving significant damage throughout the town.

    Vehicles across town sustained significant damage, including dents, broken mirrors and brake lights, and cracked windshields. Some homes and buildings sustained damage to roofs, siding, and windows.

    "It’s about the fiercest storm I’ve seen here," said Adrienne Berkon, a La Veta resident since the 1970s.

    "We had such a terrible drought, the terrible fire, and now this," another resident. "It’s like everything is happening in La Veta at once."
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  24. #824
    Latest Greenland ice coverage as we near the end of the summer melt season. Still way high above average, and should start to climb again starting in September.



    von Koehler
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  25. #825


    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickn...N_20180815.png

    This should be about the maximum amount of Summer melt season shrinkage for the Arctic.

    Especially worrisome is the over 15 feet thick patch of ice just west of Baffin Island, where the last Ice Age glacier originated.

    von Koehler
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  26. #826
    Quote Originally Posted by TxGal View Post
    Y'all are very lucky! I saw Craiglist ads from Arizona yesterday on our local listings. If there isn't much demand up there I'd bet North Texas would love to have your hay!

    Here's one for Milo at $70 a bale....Milo! https://collegestation.craigslist.or...667875000.html

    Alfalfa squares from New Mexico for $17 a bale https://collegestation.craigslist.or...671953039.html

    Just north of Austin here's one for $110 a bale horse quality coastal, plus delivery https://austin.craigslist.org/grd/d/...667329138.html

    Austin is about 2 hrs from us, College Station an hr. Lower cost hay we're seeing has been out in the pasture for a good while, in 100+ degree temps. Not a whole lot of barn storage for rounds out here, only on the bigger ranches.
    My horses loved our prairie hay way better than so- called horse quality hay.

    Eta.... it 8- 17- 18 And every thing is green, too green, cutting the yard every frigging week still...
    Last edited by West; 08-17-2018 at 05:24 PM.

  27. #827
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by West View Post
    My horses loved our prairie hay way better than so- called horse quality hay.

    Eta.... it 8- 17- 18 And every thing is green, too green, cutting the yard every frigging week still...
    I hope it stays that way for you! DH was out cutting pastures this morning. Only thing really growing enough to cut is bitter sneezeweed and goat weed. Nasty stuff. I hate that the weeds take what little moisture is out there.

  28. #828
    [Yet another example of extreme weather swings. von Koehler]

    https://www.620ckrm.com/2018/08/14/a...q2sgI.facebook

    After record hot temperatures several Saskatchewan communities approached the freezing mark Tuesday

    Regina, SK, Canada

    Ryan McNally

    August 14, 2018 10:36 am



    After record hot temperatures several Saskatchewan communities approached the freezing mark Tuesday.

    Saskatchewan weather has gone from one extreme to another in a matter of days.

    After hitting a record-breaking 41 degrees on Saturday, the low Tuesday morning was a staggering 2.7 degrees in the Queen City, nearly breaking a 39-year-old record.

    Environment Canada Meteorologist Terri Lang said there’s a logical reason for the dramatic change.

    “We saw that ridge of high pressure that gave us all the record breaking heat breakdown quite quickly,” Lang said. ” We got a lot of cold air in behind it and last night (Monday) there was clear skies and no smoke, so nothing to trap all the heat that had been radiating on the surface of the earth,” Lang added.

    Despite the sharp drop in temperatures only one cold weather record was broken, which was in Coronach at 2.8 degrees. The old record was 3.0.

    Watrous saw the mercury drop to the one degree mark early Tuesday morning.

    The normal overnight low this time of year is around 11 degrees.
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

  29. #829
    https://i2.wp.com/electroverse.net/w...g?w=1029&ssl=1

    Extreme Weather
    EARLIEST SNOWFALL ON RECORD COVERS HOKKAIDO MOUNTAIN
    AUGUST 17, 2018 CAP ALLON
    Mount Kurodake in the town of Kamikawa, the northernmost prefecture of Hokkaido, had its first snow of the season on Aug 17, the earliest snowfall since records began in 1974.

    The dusting upon the 1,984-meter-high mountain among the Daisetsuzan Volcanic Group was more than a month earlier than the average of Sept 18.

    The previous earliest snowfall was Aug 21, 2002.

    According to the Japan Meteorological Agency’s Sapporo Regional Headquarters, a mass of chilly air swept over Hokkaido following the passage of a low pressure system.

    During what has been dubbed ‘Japan’s hottest summer ever,’ winter made a surprise appearance in the middle of August with temperatures plummeting to 7C below average in some places.

    The snow was reported by Rinyu Kanko Co., a Sapporo-based firm that operates a ropeway on the mountain.
    Fad saol agat, gob fliuch, agus bás in Éirinn!

    Christianity is the estranged descendent of a bizarre Jewish apocalyptic cult.

    Kein Krieg für Israel!

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