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HEALTH Madagascar Hospitals On High Alert: ‘No One Is Safe’ From The Black Plague
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  1. #161
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    If it is a traditional infected flea transmission, it is the SLOWer progressing plague, and it's the FLEA VOMITING plague germs into the bite that gets ya infected!!
    http://www.abcdcatsvets.org/yersinia-pestis-infection/
    BUBONIC PLAGUE, Yersinia pestis is a gram-negative nonmotile, rod-shaped, facultative anaerobe with bipolar staining (giving it a safety pin appearance; Fig. 1) that belongs to the family Enterobacteriaceae. It is the causative agent of plague, a rare but often fatal zoonosis of historical significance in Europe (Black Death). Y. pestis is resistant to low temperatures and freezing, and sensitive to high temperature

    Fig. 1. Yersinia pestis is a nonmotile, rod-shaped, facultative anaerobe with bipolar staining (giving it a safety pin appearance – arrow)


    another example of safety pin shape showing up with Y Pestis

    **********************************************
    Fig. 2. Oriental rat flea (Xenopsylla cheopis) infected with the Yersinia pestis bacterium which appears as a dark mass in the gut: The foregut (proventriculus) of this flea is blocked by a Y. pestis biofilm; when the flea attempts to feed on an uninfected host, Y. pestis is regurgitated into the wound, causing infection. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yersinia_pestis
    Last edited by ainitfunny; 10-30-2017 at 03:11 PM.
    Proverbs 18:13 Wycliffe Bible (WYC)

    13 He that answereth before that he heareth, showeth himself to be a fool; and worthy of shame.

  2. #162
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    Well, we are now five days into the information suppression campaign. The last reports are from nearly one week. So, did nobody else get infected or die over the last five days? I seriously doubt that is the case.

    At any rate, I think the evidence shows the situation is getting worse in Madagascar. I would also say the chance of a further geographic spread, into the nine listed countries, is increasing day by day. Again, given the dismal skip tracing rate, 30 percent, and given the structural flaws in the African health care systems, I am not optimistic "they" have a handle on the plague. Further, the total lack of information about the current death and infection rate means "they" have decided to hush things up. Historically, whether you are talking about China with SARS, or Saudi Arabia with MERS, or the USA and Europe with Ebola back in 2014, whenever they do that, it means the real, on the ground situation is worse than the media, health authorities and governments are admitting.

    I hope this isn't the case, but the lack of information is not a good thing. Finally, I am still disturbed by the 100,000 figure, even if I am not sure exactly what "affected" means.
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" will soon be available for sale at smashwords. The url is
    https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/267340 It is also at the following url
    http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU

  3. #163
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    If you speak French there are daily updates here and the weekly WHO report:

    https://reliefweb.int/country/mdg

  4. #164
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doomer Doug View Post
    Well, we are now five days into the information suppression campaign. The last reports are from nearly one week. So, did nobody else get infected or die over the last five days? I seriously doubt that is the case.
    Maybe they're all dead!
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  5. #165
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    PW, the picture with the health care workers not wearing masks, when you are dealing with an airborne vector plague bacteria, indicates you may be on to something.

    Seriously, when you are talking about the "African Health care system" you are talking about medical people without proper clothing, scrubs, masks, latex gloves, eye goggles. You are talking about places/clinics/hospitals that are short of bleach, cleaning supplies and materials. You are talking about critical shortages of medication, and all kinds of things like we take for granted in advanced western hospitals and clinics.

    We saw with Ebola, a bodily fluid vector transmission, the a large chunk of the dead were in fact poorly supplied medical people. We are dealing with an airborne vector bacteria with this plague, so not wearing a mask, or using latex gloves is a certain way to get infected. I did see where Madagascar shut down their schools, but people are still going to use mass transit and gather in public spaces, besides that whole digging up the rotting corpses ceremony.

    We shall see how this all plays out, but it isn't looking good from my perspective.
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" will soon be available for sale at smashwords. The url is
    https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/267340 It is also at the following url
    http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU

  6. #166
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    Here is the only link I have found today. Again, the figures are from 5 days ago.

    https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/lat...pia-Seychelles

    Warnings of ‘GLOBAL OUTBREAK’ of Black Death as PLAGUE continues to spread

    HEALTH experts are warning there is “something different” about a new Black Death outbreak spreading across the world.

    An estimated 50 million lives were lost as a result of the Black Death epidemic of the 1300s.

    And now the deadly disease has spread into more African countries after taking root in Madagascar.

    Countries affected include South Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia, Comoros, the Seychelles, Mauritius and Reunion.



    So far, the virus has killed 124 people and infected around 1,300, but scientists say this figure will definitely rise.

    The World Health Organisation, which has been working with Madagascar’s Ministry of Health, has warned the risk of the epidemic spreading is “high”.

    "Plague, though terrifying, is nothing new in Madagascar, where about 600 cases are reported annually," the organisation said on its website.

    But officials said while "health officials couldn't explain it", the plague is different this time.

    A Crisis Emergency Committee has been established in response to the outbreak, which will "coordinate surveillance, contact tracing, case management, isolation and supplies" until it is contained.

    Air Seychelles, one of Madagascar's biggest airlines, stopped flying earlier in the month, in an effort to contain the spread and airports are screening passengers to avoid spread of the plague.

    Schools and businesses have been closed, and large public gatherings have been cancelled.



    A WHO official said: “The risk of the disease spreading is high at national level… because it is present in several towns and this is just the start of the outbreak.”

    The last significant outbreak of the disease occurred nearly a century ago in Los Angeles, when a two-week epidemic killed 30 people.

    There are three types of plague – bubonic affecting the lymph nodes, septicaemia which causes bleeding under the skin, and pneumonic which affects respiration.

    The WHO describes the pneumonic plague as “the deadliest and most rapid form of plague”.
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" will soon be available for sale at smashwords. The url is
    https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/267340 It is also at the following url
    http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU

  7. #167
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    Quote Originally Posted by Publius View Post
    Did a search using BING and the newest news I found was two days old and not telling much other than the near by countries are clamping down at the borders.
    One report was from the U.N. that was several days old and that one confirmed they do indeed have an outbreak of both forms of plague, Not good.


    As I found and pointing out they have the active airborne plague. Its darn near imposable to control unless they lock the whole country down and no one is allowed on the streets for at lest a week or they get shot with no exceptions. All dead bodies should be burned and people handling the dead need to have level four protective gear.

  8. #168
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    This is fascinating. I just read two books about the plague. Then did some research on line.

    Tobbaco apparently does have some anti-plague porperties. Not saying smokers didnt catch the plague. But the smoking population in general had it a lot less than others.

    It also occured most frequently after seeing comets ( hence some scientific research papers that its a space virus) and in cold solar minimums. It is a hearty virus that does best in cold or freezing conditions. That would explain the connection to solar minimums and little ice ages. Sunlight and warmth kills a lot of things.

    The comet thing may just be a coincidence but there were a LOT of visable comets recorded in the 400 years the plague ravaged Europe.

    I have also seen research that says we are about to hit another sginificant solar minimum. So that may be a sginficant factor.

  9. #169
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    The Black Death, ie the plague is a bacteria and not a virus. This means it is able to be treated with anti-biotics, assuming we don't end up with an airborne vector plague bacteria that is antibiotic resistant. If that ever happens, an airborne plague bacteria that is unable to be treated with any known antibiotic, well that is the Andromedia level death rate.
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" will soon be available for sale at smashwords. The url is
    https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/267340 It is also at the following url
    http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU

  10. #170
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    oh, put on your woo caps , folks!

    dig this:

    Wyndham Lathem, the crazy fag psycho who, together with another queer from Oxford Univ, brutally stabbed his boitoi to death in Chicago last August (virtually in the same day the outbreak was first announced) in some sort of ritual murder, is one of the world's most renowned researchers into

    Yersinia pestis!

    https://www.chicagoreader.com/Bleade...t-northwestern

    and a few months before the murder, he was denied a security clearance by the French govt'

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/l...808-story.html

    and he has recently been to madagascar . . . "collecting samples"

    https://contagions.wordpress.com/201...ithuania-2016/

    http://theconversation.com/how-yersi...c-plague-43989

    http://allnewspipeline.com/Airborne_...e_Man_Made.php

    WTF!

  11. #171
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    Quote Originally Posted by bassgirl View Post
    This is fascinating. I just read two books about the plague. Then did some research on line.

    Tobbaco apparently does have some anti-plague porperties. Not saying smokers didnt catch the plague. But the smoking population in general had it a lot less than others.

    It also occured most frequently after seeing comets ( hence some scientific research papers that its a space virus) and in cold solar minimums. It is a hearty virus that does best in cold or freezing conditions. That would explain the connection to solar minimums and little ice ages. Sunlight and warmth kills a lot of things.

    The comet thing may just be a coincidence but there were a LOT of visable comets recorded in the 400 years the plague ravaged Europe.

    I have also seen research that says we are about to hit another sginificant solar minimum. So that may be a sginficant factor.



    In cooler or cold temperatures rats would seek the warmer environment of a home and its where the food is too. People will congregate indoors possibly spreading it, Keep in mind this is happening in a tropical country.

  12. #172
    Quote Originally Posted by mecoastie View Post
    If you speak French there are daily updates here and the weekly WHO report:

    https://reliefweb.int/country/mdg
    The link is showing on the pdf. Up until Oct. 27, there is currently 1554 current known cases and 113 deaths.

    https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefwe...2127102017.pdf

  13. #173
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    Hmm, they cut the number of dead by 11, from 124 to 113, but they increased the infected from either 1192, or 1300 depending on who you believe. Still, that is an increase of either 362, or an increase of 254 from the 25th to the 27th. If that rate of increase holds true, we are looking at between 162 and 181 new cases daily. This will lead to a total of 5,430 new cases over the next 30 days. The population of Madagascar is around 25 million. Of course, this assumes the rate of increase stays the same, which it wouldn't. Still, there is no way you can call this outbreak contained when you are getting nearly 200 new cases on a daily basis.

    Remember, ten days ago, on October 20th WHO said they had 94 dead and about 1000 cases.

    Ten days later they have 113 to 124 dead and 1300 to 1554 cases. The math says they are already have a 50 percent increases in known infections and, using the 124, an increase of 30 or roughly a 30 percent rate of increase. AS the numbers get larger, even if the rate of increase stays the same, you will start to get into the hundreds/thousands dead or infected over the next month.

    Yep, the reason "they" clamped down on the info is because you are now getting a 50 percent increase in known infections every ten days, as well as a 30 percent increase in dead every ten days. Um, those are very bad numbers, especially if they are sustained over the next few weeks/months. By the time we get to Christmas, we may be looking at thousands dead, and hundreds of thousands infected, just on Madagascar.

    Fire up the doom machine!
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" will soon be available for sale at smashwords. The url is
    https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/267340 It is also at the following url
    http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU

  14. #174
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    The numbers keep changing....(and it doesn't help that there is a piece on current Marburg cases just above the below article)


    http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...an-oct-30-2017



    WHO: Funds needed as Madagascar plague total tops 1,500

    Madagascar's plague outbreak scenario continues to improve, with cases declining in the main hot spots, but the sustainability of the response operations is a worry, given that funding is running low and that the country's plague season extends to April, WHO AFRO said in its weekly outbreak in health emergencies update today.

    As of Oct 27, the country has reported 1,554 suspected cases, 113 of them fatal, keeping the case-fatality rate at 7%. So far 985 (63%) of the illnesses involve the pneumonic form of the disease. The total is up from 1,309 suspected cases reported by the WHO on Oct 26.

    Though progress has been made, only 26% of the response plan has received funding, the WHO said. The country needs temperature monitoring equipment, rapid diagnostic tests, personal protective equipment, infection prevention and control supplies, and antibiotics. The group called for health partners and donors to help provide funds, logistics, and personnel to help sustain operations needed to eventually contain the outbreak.
    Oct 29 WHO AFRO weekly outbreak and health emergencies bulletin
    Oct 27 CIDRAP News scan on earlier numbers

  15. #175
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    Wow, even by spin control standards the WHO just said a whopper.

    I said the rate of increase in infected people was 50 percent over the last ten days.

    I said the rate of people dying was an increase of 30 percent over the last ten days.


    And WHO says: Oklay, if you say it is declining in the main hot spots, you really mean it is increasing in other areas. So, THIS MEANS THE PLAGUE IS STILL SPREADING ON MADAGASCAR. Yep, WHO is spinning this info like a top.


    Madagascar's plague outbreak scenario continues to improve, with cases declining in the main hot spots, but the sustainability of the response operations is a worry, given that funding is running low and that the country's plague season extends to April, WHO AFRO said in its weekly outbreak in health emergencies update today.
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" will soon be available for sale at smashwords. The url is
    https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/267340 It is also at the following url
    http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU

  16. #176
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    Quote Originally Posted by mecoastie View Post
    What epidemics did this treat in the past?
    I don't know. I figured that I'd know when I needed it. And this may it. I made this 10 or 15 years ago and it was quite a process. I had to use a separate crock pot for each herb.

    I found this bit of info under the video (4 minutes) but I'm sure there has to be a better explanation somewhere on the web. I'll look to see if I can find one.

    "This recipe comes to us from the late John Christopher, N.D. He was asked during a seminar to help people naturally overcome the bubonic plague or similar illness if access to traditional medical care was limited because of a catastrophe. The recipe he developed became known colloquially as "plague remedy."

    This recipe has proliferated all over the Internet over the past 10 years. People gather together in plague remedy clubs to make these recipes in bulk for members, because some of the steps can be time-consuming.

    Commercial preparations of this recipe can be purchased online for $60 per pint. The work involved goes into the price.

    However, the beauty of this recipe is that whether you are making one gallon or 10 gallons, the recipe takes about the same amount of time to make. You are simply limited by the same amount of time to make. You are simply limited by the amount of herbs and the size of your kitchen stove.

    The recipe we're showing you here makes a gallon of remedy, which would cost $480 if you bought this amount in a store or online."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W941jAy14vk
    G.K. Chesterton, “It’s the first effect of not believing in God that you lose your common sense.”

    "If anyone shall be outside the ark of Noe he shall perish when the flood prevails." St Jerome

    Extra Ecclesiam Nulla Salus

    Truth

    Pray for the Consecration of Russia.

    Peace

  17. #177
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    9

    That totally untested, untried, unscientifically, by guess and by golly "plague remedy" speculatively concocted in somebody's kitchen is about as close to "selling snake oil" as it gets and is going to unnecessarily KILL A LOT OF PEOPLE if a Bubonic (Pneumonic) Plague epidemic ever really does break out here in America. Promoting it, based on ABSOLUTELY NOTHING verifiably true is close to criminal.

    Why? Because a lot of people irrationally TRUST a lot of worthless "home remedies" and that is OK as long as it doesn't affect ME and YOU and the disease they seek to treat is not highly contagious, with a 100% fatality rate without real antibiotics and that is readily treatable with proven, powerful antibiotics!!

    Why is it wrong to advocate/promote these "remedies"?
    Because of the way humans think and behave. People who have or think they can concoct that "remedy" or something close to it, will avoid seeking immediate, real, medical treatment for a million reasons and DELAY seeking real medical care while they FIRST TRY home "remedies", even when exposure IS likely and antibiotics ARE available. It (Pneumonic Plague ) is more contagious than EBOLA, and has a higher fatality rate (100% without antibiotics) and KILLS FASTER than EBOLA, but just as painfully.

    Bubonic Plague, but especially pneumonic Plague, is one disease that any delay in the administration of REAL, POWERFUL, antibiotics SEALS YOUR DEATH SENTENCE.

    I would much rather see people in cahoots with doctors lay up some real antibiotics in their Preps, or order them from overseas, India or Europe, if they cannot find a doctor friend that will prescribe them for plague preps.
    And you know that I use and approve of certain (LAB TESTED for actual clinical effectiveness AND knowledge of HOW THEY WORK) herbal products (CURCUMIN).

    When it comes to (especially Pneumonic ) Plague, you must seek professional medical treatment BEFORE you reasonably KNOW that you have it, when you only suspect and fear that you have it, either when first symptoms appear ( or better, seek preventive antibiotic treatment (before symptoms appear!) but then only if you know you have been exposed to it) because if you don't get real, powerful antibiotics FAST, you will be dead within 24-48 hours, if you did have/contract it!!
    Last edited by ainitfunny; 10-31-2017 at 01:26 AM.
    Proverbs 18:13 Wycliffe Bible (WYC)

    13 He that answereth before that he heareth, showeth himself to be a fool; and worthy of shame.

  18. #178
    Quote Originally Posted by ainitfunny View Post
    That totally untested, untried, unscientifically, by guess and by golly "plague remedy" speculatively concocted in somebody's kitchen is about as close to "selling snake oil" as it gets and is going to unnecessarily KILL A LOT OF PEOPLE if a Bubonic (Pneumonic) Plague epidemic ever really does break out here in America. Promoting it, based on ABSOLUTELY NOTHING verifiably true is close to criminal.

    Why? Because a lot of people irrationally TRUST a lot of worthless "home remedies" and that is OK as long as it doesn't affect ME and YOU and the disease they seek to treat is not highly contagious, with a 100% fatality rate without real antibiotics and that is readily treatable with proven, powerful antibiotics!!

    Why is it wrong to advocate/promote these "remedies"?
    Because of the way humans think and behave. People who have or think they can concoct that "remedy" or something close to it, will avoid seeking immediate, real, medical treatment for a million reasons and DELAY seeking real medical care while they FIRST TRY home "remedies", even when exposure IS likely and antibiotics ARE available. It (Pneumonic Plague ) is more contagious than EBOLA, and has a higher fatality rate (100% without antibiotics) and KILLS FASTER than EBOLA, but just as painfully.

    Bubonic Plague, but especially pneumonic Plague, is one disease that any delay in the administration of REAL, POWERFUL, antibiotics SEALS YOUR DEATH SENTENCE.

    I would much rather see people in cahoots with doctors lay up some real antibiotics in their Preps, or order them from overseas, India or Europe, if they cannot find a doctor friend that will prescribe them for plague preps.
    And you know that I use and approve of certain (LAB TESTED for actual clinical effectiveness AND knowledge of HOW THEY WORK) herbal products (CURCUMIN).
    Thank you ainitfunny, the last thing we need on here is snake oil "cures". People will die because of their foolish belief in "pockets of Posies" types of cures.

  19. #179
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    Even though there are antibiotics that can save people, with any airborne vector and ease in spreading, it could get a foothold faster than antibiotics are available. Just in time shipping could be outpaced by the spread.
    Last edited by bbbuddy; 10-31-2017 at 04:35 AM.
    Ring the bells that still can ring
    Forget your perfect offering
    There is a crack, a crack in everything
    That's how the light gets in.

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  20. #180
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    Quote Originally Posted by bbbuddy View Post
    Even though there are antibiotics that can save people, with any airborne vector and ease in spreading, it could get a foothold faster than antibiotics are available. Just in time shipping could be outpaced by the spread.
    The same could be said for many of the herbal "cures" as well. Unless you plan ahead and prep you are not going to be mixing it up this plague cure as your kid pops a fever. For the money spent on the herbs or the syrup one could lay in a good supply of antibiotics if they do it now.

  21. #181
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    I guess you missed this part:

    "He was asked during a seminar to help people naturally overcome the bubonic plague or similar illness if access to traditional medical care was limited because of a catastrophe."


    Quote Originally Posted by ainitfunny View Post
    That totally untested, untried, unscientifically, by guess and by golly "plague remedy" speculatively concocted in somebody's kitchen is about as close to "selling snake oil" as it gets and is going to unnecessarily KILL A LOT OF PEOPLE if a Bubonic (Pneumonic) Plague epidemic ever really does break out here in America. Promoting it, based on ABSOLUTELY NOTHING verifiably true is close to criminal. ...
    G.K. Chesterton, “It’s the first effect of not believing in God that you lose your common sense.”

    "If anyone shall be outside the ark of Noe he shall perish when the flood prevails." St Jerome

    Extra Ecclesiam Nulla Salus

    Truth

    Pray for the Consecration of Russia.

    Peace

  22. #182
    In case help is NOT on the way; a much better approach than snake oil preparations are preps that keep people alive during a severe illness if their body is strong enough to fight off the disease.

    These would include (but not be limited to) sugar, salt and/or medical hydration fluid; a baby bottle (to let patients suck the fluid); an IV set up if someone in the family is trained to use it properly, blankets, lots of extra (and disposable bedding); lancets (for lancing boils again someone should train to do this, it can kill as well as heal so should be a last resort).

    Easy to eat items like canned soups (commercial in this case to avoid the need for cooking); crackers, juices etc, lots and lots and lots of water - bleach lots and lots of bleach etc.

    There is some scientific evidence (from his own notebooks) that Nostradamus was using rose hips as part of his unknown "cure" that worked sometimes; so vitamin C or rose hip tea won't hurt and may help; garlic and onions do have some very limited antibiotic properties used WITH modern antibiotics they can help; in a pinch eating them or using them in broth for the sick (or as a hot poultice on infected chests) won't hurt but probably won't save people either (unless they are already recovering which with normal plague happens about 70 percent of the time).

    You want to avoid people dying just because everyone is ill and no one can care for each other - that happened a LOT in the 14th through 16th centuries; that is why having some very easy access food, water, and warmth/clean bedding is crucial to a recovering person can just grab it from their bedside or throw off soiled covers and put on new ones if they have to.

    OK that's enough, most of this is common sense and can be found on any good preparedness website and it applies to most of the older "killer" diseases, not just plague; after t his I suggest we continue to keep a thread going in alternative medicines for any weird cures that are floating around the internet and save this thread for breaking news.

    I will post the CDC link to the antibiotics that are still working even on the resistant strains as soon as husband gets that to me (may be the weekend).
    expatriate Californian living in rural Ireland with husband, dogs, horses. garden and many, many cats

  23. #183
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    Quote Originally Posted by eens View Post
    I guess you missed this part:

    "He was asked during a seminar to help people naturally overcome the bubonic plague or similar illness if access to traditional medical care was limited because of a catastrophe."
    How much of the stuff to make this is available locally after a catastrophe? It would be no different than not having antibiotics. Unless you plan ahead and stock up you are out of luck.

  24. #184
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    Quote Originally Posted by mecoastie View Post
    ... It would be no different than not having antibiotics. Unless you plan ahead and stock up you are out of luck.
    Yes, that's the point. PLAN AHEAD to take care of yourself if the unthinkable happens. We have no control over the pharmaceuticals but we can control what's in our preps.
    G.K. Chesterton, “It’s the first effect of not believing in God that you lose your common sense.”

    "If anyone shall be outside the ark of Noe he shall perish when the flood prevails." St Jerome

    Extra Ecclesiam Nulla Salus

    Truth

    Pray for the Consecration of Russia.

    Peace

  25. #185
    Quote Originally Posted by eens View Post
    Yes, that's the point. PLAN AHEAD to take care of yourself if the unthinkable happens. We have no control over the pharmaceuticals but we can control what's in our preps.
    Which is why I listed what I did; most good prepping sites will also have a list - I always include the baby bottle for adults as well as children in case a person is too ill to sit up and drink fluids.
    expatriate Californian living in rural Ireland with husband, dogs, horses. garden and many, many cats

  26. #186
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    Hmm, it looks like "they" are preparing people for the spread of the Black Death into the nine countries. Again, not a peep of new information on Madagascar. Do they really think the dead silence on the plague in Madagascar is going to not bite them on their rear end when things head south?

    The link is here.

    https://www.iol.co.za/news/south-afr...hreat-11790279

    Durban - South African health authorities are on alert for possible imported cases of the plague. This, as almost 1 300 suspected cases have been reported in Madagascar.

    It was confirmed that there were no cases in South Africa at a press briefing with the Department of Health and the National Institute of Communicable Diseases (NICD) on Tuesday.

    But, with Madagascar - where 93 people have died from the plague - being just one direct flight away, authorities are on their guard.

    Travellers coming in from the island are screened on arrival for fever or cough, read an NICD statement. “Any ill passenger will be assessed in the airport clinic.”

    Madagascar is also screening all travellers leaving the country to prevent ill persons from boarding aircraft and this appears to have been effective thus far.

    Since August, there have been 1300 suspected cases of plague but it is an annual occurrence in Madagascar. This year’s outbreak has raised particular concerns as it affecting urban centres.

    The majority of cases (65%) are pneumonic plague, rather than the usual bubonic form.

    The NICD has specialised testing available to detect plague. If a suspected case arrives in South Africa‚ the country has a network of communicable disease workers, who would trace the patient’s contacts and offer preventive antibiotics if required.

    The WHO has advised that no travel and trade restrictions are required.

    The Mercury
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" will soon be available for sale at smashwords. The url is
    https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/267340 It is also at the following url
    http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU

  27. #187
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    Home News & events Epidemiological update - Plague in Madagascar
    https://ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-event...gue-madagascar
    News & events
    Epidemiological update - Plague in Madagascar
    epidemiological update
    27 Oct 2017
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    Since 23 August 2017 there is an ongoing epidemic of plague in Madagascar. As of 20 October 2017 WHO has reported 1 365 cases and 106 deaths leading to an 8 % case fatality. Nine hundred and fifteen (67%) cases are pneumonic plague cases. The high proportion of pneumonic plague among cases is of concern, indicating that droplet transmission is a driver of the spread of plague in Madagascar beyond the areas that have been considered as endemic for bubonic plague to date. In the last weeks, the number of new confirmed cases seem to be plateauing, indicating that the outbreak is gradually being controlled.

    To date, none of the suspected cases of plague investigated outside of Madagascar have been confirmed in relation to this outbreak.

    ECDC published a rapid risk assessment on this event on 9 October 2017 and an update on 13 October 2017. The ECDC risk assessment remains valid.

    ECDC has published the following technical documents on 27 October 2017:

    Case definition and algorithm for initial assessment and management of cases related to the outbreak of plague in Madagascar
    Information leaflet for travellers to Madagascar
    Guidance for healthcare workers on the use of personal protective equipment in the management of bubonic and pneumonic plague patients
    Guidance for the management of suspected pneumonic plague cases identified on aircraft and ships


    Situation in Seychelles and Mauritius

    On 10 October, the Ministry of Health of the Seychelles issued a statement about a case of plague in a returning traveller from Madagascar. The case was isolated and received antibiotic treatment. As of 17 October 2017, ten laboratory specimens have been collected from suspected cases and a probable case. All tested negative by PCR at the WHO Collaborating Centre for plague at the Institute Pasteur in Paris, France. Over 320 contact persons of the index case, including 41 passengers and seven crew from the flight, 12 close family members, and 18 staff and patients from the health centre visited by the index case, completed follow-up and monitoring on 13 October 2017. All were provided with a prophylactic course of antibiotics to prevent the disease. Overall, 1 223 contacts were registered and followed-up. All contacts that were isolated in the hospital have been discharged home, including the index case, and passive surveillance and antibiotic prophylaxis has been discontinued to all his contacts.

    Another neighbouring country, Mauritius identified two suspected plague cases according to local media that tested negative.

    To date, no cases outside of Madagascar related to this outbreak have been confirmed for plague.

    Situation in Madagascar – epidemiological update

    Madagascar, with a population of 24.9 million, is endemic for plague, and for the past decade has been the most affected country in the world, with around 400 cases of mostly bubonic plague reported annually (Figure 1). The epidemiology of plague in Madagascar shows all-year round transmission in endemic rural foci with zoonotic transmission leading to regular reports of bubonic plague cases. More historical information on plague in Madagascar is available in the risk assessment ‘Rapid risk assessment: Outbreak of plague in Madagascar, 9 October 2017’.



    Figure 1. Distribution of plague cases and case-fatality ratio by year of reporting, Madagascar, 2010 to 2017, as of 20 October.
    Figure 1. Distribution of plague cases and case-fatality ratio by year of reporting, Madagascar, 2010 to 2017, as of 20 October.
    Source: Data from WHO
    On 23 August 2017, a 31-year-old male from Toamasina developed malaria-like symptoms while visiting the Ankazobe district in the central highlands of Madagascar. On 27 August, he developed respiratory symptoms while travelling in a shared public taxi from Ankazobe district, a known plague endemic area, to Toamasina via Antananarivo. His condition worsened and he died on 27 August 2017. His body was prepared for a funeral at the nearest hospital in the Moramanga district hospital located between Antananarivo and Toamasina. He was buried in a village close to Toamasina without safety procedures. Subsequently, 31 people who had been in contact with this case fell ill and four of them died.

    The outbreak was detected on 11 September following the death of a 47-year-old woman from Antananarivo who was admitted to a hospital with respiratory failure caused by pneumonic plague. The public health authorities immediately launched comprehensive field investigations.

    On 29 September 2017, the Malagasy health authorities confirmed a fatal case of pneumonic plague in a basketball coach from the Seychelles. The case died in a hospital in Madagascar on Wednesday 27 September while in the country for the Indian Ocean Club basketball championship scheduled for 23 September to 1 October 2017. The Madagascar Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have informed the government of Seychelles and authorities of other countries participating in the championship including Comoros, Mauritius and Seychelles. Remaining sporting events in the championship took place as closed-door matches in accordance with a Madagascar Ministry of Health recommendation. National or international contacts of the case were traced and investigated in the preceding days. Exposed contacts received chemoprophylaxis as a precautionary measure and follow-up has been implemented for those considered as having higher-risk exposures. In addition, a basketball player from South Africa was treated for plague in Madagascar after contracting the illness during the championships.

    Between 1 August and 20 October 2017, WHO has reported 1 365 plague cases, including 106 deaths (CFR=8%). Pneumonic plague accounts for 915 cases, bubonic plague for 275 cases, septicaemic plague for one case and 174 cases were unspecified. Among plague cases, 219 cases are confirmed, 520 are probable and 626 have been classified as suspected cases (see Figure 2). Regarding the 915 pneumonic plague cases, 160 have been confirmed, 375 are probable and 380 have been classified as suspected cases. Due to the ongoing reclassification process in Madagascar the distribution of number of cases may vary in the following updates.



    Figure 2. Distribution of plague cases per reporting week, Madagascar, weeks 2017-38 to 2017-42

    Figure 2. Distribution of plague cases per reporting week, Madagascar, weeks 2017-38 to 2017-42

    Source: Data from WHO
    At least 54 healthcare workers have contracted plague since the beginning of the outbreak. The district of Antananarivo Renivohitra, where the capital city of Antananarivo is located, is the most affected, accounting for 41% of all reported cases. The current pulmonary plague outbreak has affected major urban centres including the capital Antananarivo (three million inhabitants) and the port city of Toamasina (around 275 000 inhabitants) on the east coast. In addition, sporadic cases of pneumonic plague without apparent epidemiological links with the initial cluster of cases have been reported in several regions across the country. Overall, 40 out of 114 districts in 14 of 22 regions in the country have been affected by pulmonary plague (see distribution of plague cases in the latest WHO epidemiological report ).

    Local authorities and international partners are concerned that the outbreak may spread further as it is already present in several cities and the plague epidemic season usually runs from September to April.

    Several public health actions have been implemented since the outbreak was notified to WHO on 13 September 2017. Under the leadership of the Minister of Public Health, a multisectoral national response coordination committee for the response to the plague outbreak was set up. WHO is providing technical and operational support to the Minister of Public Health in in coordination with national and international partners involved in infection prevention and control of the plague epidemic.

    Nine plague treatment centres have been established in Madagascar, of which six are in the capital city of Antananarivo. Field investigations of cases, contact tracing and monitoring of contacts are ongoing. In addition, awareness-raising campaigns about the spread of disease and prevention measures have been implemented in the community. The Minister of Public Health and WHO have implemented exit screening of departing passengers at the Antananarivo International Airport. Sanitary control measures have been implemented at the entry and exit from cities affected. Regarding international health regulation (IHR) travel measures, WHO advises against any restriction on travel to or trade with Madagascar based on the available information.
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  28. #188
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    Here is a link to an article that indicates things are not going well at all. The article is saying that the plague has now spread into several additional African countries. This is why we now have a complete shutdown of health information from the powers that be. I will also note that several of the infected came from other countries into Madagascar where they were infected.

    http://www.thebigwobble.org/2017/10/...o-10-more.html

    Tuesday, 31 October 2017
    PLAGUE continues to spread to 10 more African countries! Red Cross fears GLOBAL OUTBREAK of Black Death: “Something different” warn experts

    Warnings of ‘GLOBAL OUTBREAK’ of Black Death as PLAGUE continues to spread
    No vaccine is available to prevent plague and according to The Sun News Paper the deadly disease has now spread into South Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia, Comoros, the Seychelles, Mauritius and Reunion. after taking root in Madagascar.
    HEALTH experts are warning there is “something different” about a new Black Death outbreak spreading across the world and that is because Red Cross officials have said the situation is particularly worrying because pneumonic plague, which is spread from person to person, has occurred for the first time in non-endemic areas and crowded cities.
    More than 70 percent of the cases are the pneumonic form which is fatal within 24 hours and no known cure if the pneumonic strain is not treated directly.

    The Black Death is thought to have originated in the arid plains of Central Asia, where it then travelled along the Silk Road, reaching Crimea by 1343.
    From there, it was most likely carried by Oriental rat fleas living on the black rats that were regular passengers on merchant ships. Spreading throughout the Mediterranean and Europe, the Black Death is estimated to have killed 50–60% of Europe's total population.
    In total, the plague may have reduced the world population from an estimated 450 million down to 350–375 million in the 14th century. The world population as a whole did not recover to pre-plague levels until the 17th century.
    The plague recurred occasionally in Europe until the 19th century.

    Madagascar is currently in the grip of an unfolding epidemic, with hundreds of people infected with the pneumonic plague.
    What led to the outbreak, and how can health authorities prevent its spread?
    Because the plague is endemic to Madagascar, outbreaks are not unusual.
    But this year, the outbreak emerged much earlier than usual and has spread in a unique manner. According to the World Health Organization, the outbreak was first identified after a 31-year-old man died in the Ankazobe District of the Central Highlands.
    As is common procedure following a suspected infectious disease death, the Ministry of Public Health began investigating the man's close contacts to ascertain if a wider health problem existed. And they soon discovered a spiralling infection trail.
    Since August it's estimated that at least 124 people have died, and an additional 1,192 infection cases have been logged.
    There have also been around 70 cases of bubonic plague, but it is the much more virulent pneumonic plague that has authorities worried.
    Pneumonic plague is considered the most aggressive form of the disease, as it can spread through person-to-person contact.
    Otherwise known as lung-based plague, the disease arises when an advanced infection moves to a person's lungs.
    At this stage, the sufferer can then infect others via coughing or sneezing.
    Incubation time is very short - just 24 hours in most cases - and if untreated the pneumonic plague is always fatal.
    Stephane Michaud, director of emergencies at the Canadian Red Cross, told The Globe and Mail that the situation is under control - at least in the short term: "For now, they are able to handle the clinical caseload of plague, and the main effort is at the community level to prevent further spread of the disease."
    While the World Health Organization believes the risk of a worldwide epidemic is low, the threat to local regions could escalate if global health authorities do not properly address this crisis. Antananarivo and Toamasina, the two largest cities in Madagascar, have experienced the greatest concentration of infections to date.
    Densely populated urban areas pose challenges for disease control efforts because of the difficulty in isolating infections.
    Additionally, cities tend to have more people travelling through to other regions, further increasing the risk of the pneumonic plague spreading beyond Madagascar.
    At present, nine countries have reported cases of the plague, with the Seychelles Islands among them. A number of vacationers flock to this region, so while the global risk remains low, heightened screening procedures may be put in place for some tourists as they return to their home countries. Even so, it's unusual for the plague to spread via long-distance air travel due to the short window of incubation.
    Generally, infected people will be too ill to travel or can be easily isolated.
    The good news is that the plague is highly treatable with antibiotics, and around 780 people have been cured since August 1.
    Furthermore, six of the affected districts in Madagascar have now reported zero cases for at least 15 days, meaning that the transmission risk in those regions is under control.
    And despite an unusually high number of infections, the outbreak is behaving in roughly the same way as local authorities observe every year.
    Therefore, if health officials can contain these infections, there's every reason to think that this situation can be resolved relatively swiftly.
    Such action hinges on international aid to ensure that Madagascar's authorities have all the necessary tools to stop the plague in its tracks.
    A global appeal for a further $5.5 million is underway to fund health centres, antibiotics deployment and more.
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" will soon be available for sale at smashwords. The url is
    https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/267340 It is also at the following url
    http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU

  29. The big problem with this is that the symptoms of pneumatic plague aren't (initially) that much different than the cold or flu. Headache, fever, cough, weakness, etc. Reading up on it, the symptoms usually don't begin to present themselves until day 3. Without treatment, a person can die within 36 hours from the onset of the symptoms.

    Now sure, antibiotics work. But ask yourselves this... if the pneumonic plague hit our country, initially, how many people would run to the doctor when the headache comes on and they start coughing? Would you? More likely, someone would just head to the local drug store or supermarket, buy some cold & sinus meds, and go on their merry way until the symptoms begin knocking them off their feet. Some may even still go to work. Waitresses? Bank tellers? Grocery store clerks? Gas station attendants? All of them would be infecting others.

    Even if someone DID go to the doctor or hospital when they began showing signs of symptoms, think about how many door knobs they'll touch. How many people they'll cough on. How many droplets of the bacterium they'll leave in their wake. This could potentially spread FAST and FAR very quickly. I don't know how many doses of antibiotics are available to hand out to 330 million people, but it's very likely that many won't be able to get the medicine they need. Not to mention, with so many kinds and so many doses of antibiotics potentially given, there could be the chance at antibiotic restistant mutation occurring.

    So let me just say this... if/when cases begin showing up in the States, the only way to absolutely ensure that you will live through it is to stay home, and avoid all contact with people. Bug in. If you can't for whatever reason, wear an N95 mask and gloves. Hell, I'd even wear goggles or safety glasses.

    This thing is no laughing matter. Let's just all hope and pray it fizzles out.

  30. #190
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    JOE, if the article I posted is correct, the plague has already spread from Madagascar to one or more of the nine other African countries listed. Further, relying on some third world cesspool, like Madagascar, or South Africa or Congo to "screen" passengers is a case of Plague roulette.

    We won't know it is here, in the USA, until people start dying from it. We can be sure all we will get from official sources is lies, misleading information and spin control. The USA won't shut down air travel, just like it didn't for Ebola back in 2014, because the WHO won't say it is vital to do so. This means for PC reasons we will keep the airlines coming until eventually somebody slips through. The other thing is you can be very sure ISIS is looking to get their hands on some of the active plague bacteria.
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" will soon be available for sale at smashwords. The url is
    https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/267340 It is also at the following url
    http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU

  31. #191
    The similarity to the cold/flu virus in the early stages is one reason that husband and I have always said that if "bad guys" really wanted to use it as a bioweapon they would infect themselves or useful idiots, and then enter a US working-class neighborhood; the sort of blue-collar area where a lot of people live in crowded homes and have jobs or small businesses usually in the service sector.

    Ride around on the buses, go to local shops and cafes etc and infect as many people as possible who are not going to go to the doctor (or stay home from work) just because they feel a bit "off" instead they will drop by the pharmacy and buy some over-the-counter flu remedy and go to their job in fast food, hotel work, driving a bus, janitor or even as a nurse or teacher. By the time original bodies are found (which if they hide might take awhile) and the first wave starts dropping dead, hundreds if not thousands could already be infected.

    Even WITH a First World health system, the combination of a lack of resources with a population that tends to avoid the expense of medical care (and often has no paid sick leave) would be the death of many people; it would be hard even to get enough medications to treat the medical staff much less the thousands of exposed people in a city like Los Angeles or New York City.
    expatriate Californian living in rural Ireland with husband, dogs, horses. garden and many, many cats

  32. #192
    Again, I'm NOT denying that this is a potentially serious (or even disastrous) problem, especially if it does escape Africa. However, PLEASE read this link:

    https://academic.oup.com/cid/article...n-of-Pneumonic

    Among other interesting facts is that studies show that it's not highly contagious UNTIL THE END STAGES... once a person begins coughing up blood, their sputum is nearly a pure culture of the bacteria. However, before that time, they aren't breathing out plague bacteria with every breath- or even every cough.

    I suspect not too many people are going to be out running around once they get to the truly contagious stage. (there will always be exceptions, of course!)

    READ THE LINK, please! It will give you some factual basis for preps, and for the mental preps for those who like to play those games... you know, "how would I treat this if a family member got it" sort of thing...

    As Melodi points out, the problems will be exacerbated by our "just in time" system, where a certain number of doses of any of the effective antibiotics are available at any point in time, in any particular place, and there likely isn't a lot of elasticity in the system. They MAY be able to- for example- increase the production of doxycycline by 10%... maybe even 50%. But if plague suddenly hits thousands, the demand may increase 500% or more. And having read the list of effective antibiotics, doxy is probably the least potentially toxic of them.

    https://www.cdc.gov/plague/resources...wVGwqxvWvVbWxd

    By the way, ADC still does have doxy available, although I don't know how long that will last.

    Summerthyme

  33. Quote Originally Posted by summerthyme View Post
    I suspect not too many people are going to be out running around once they get to the truly contagious stage. (there will always be exceptions, of course!)
    I imagine that's likely when people WOULD be venturing out -- in order to go to the doctor or hospital. Even if they don't themselves, imagine all the mothers panicking to get help for their kids, or husband for their wives, etc. People in this country aren't used to very severe symptoms, such as coughing up blood. Imagine the panic all the snowflakes would feel if they had that symptom. Subway systems, busses, doctor's offices, hospitals, and walk-in clinics... all of them could potentially see these very highly contagious people.

    Summerthyme, you're thinking like a rational person. Even in normal, non-crisis times, soooo many people these days are not rational. You're thinking of others, knowing that your symptoms could infect the masses, so it makes sense to you that you'd stay home. But too many people these days only think of themselves. They wouldn't care one iota about infecting others. If they need a doctor, then by golly, they're going to find one. Know what I mean???

  34. #194
    The story is getting a little bit more exposure..... https://www.ar15.com/forums/general/...ica/5-2047317/

  35. #195
    Jubilee... I Do know where you're coming from, but I also know how VERY ill you feel when you are in the throes if a truly serious illness. I haven't seen plague, obviously, but I doubt it's materially different from any other illness where you have high fever, not to mention severe pneumonia and bleeding into the lungs.

    If the progress of the disease is as quick as I've been reading, most people are going to be at death's door and way too weak to try to get to a doctor or pharmacy at the stage they are the most contagious.

    Certainly, they are going to be calling 911 and begging for help... our first responders will need to be very wary of the potential for plague, and I hope there are serious plans for barrier precautions (mask and gloves, especially)

    Please note, if this gets to this country, I won't be taking any chances. But even with a 100% mortality rate for pneumonia plague (if untreated), Europe lost "only" 1/3 of their population over 5 years in the worst historical epidemic... before any knowledge of germ theory, basic hygiene, or antibiotics.

    The biggest "new" issue I can see in terms of modern life potentially making a bigger problem than it was in earlier times is the transportation thing. When travel was by foit ire horseback, it was pretty impossible to cover more than 30 miles in a day. That kept the plague from "leapfrogging" across countries or continents. These days, it can show up where no one us expecting it...

    Summerthyme

  36. #196
    Give me 6 guys Willing to die for Allah, a vial of plague blood, and I could shut this nation down. Thanks goodness Muslims are inbred fools.

  37. #197
    OK, not to out doom Doomer Doug, but germ wise, people in Medieval Europe were exposed to just about everything. The adults that managed to survive past childhood must have been a tough lot.

    Not sure how well most modern day Americans would measure up.

  38. #198
    Quote Originally Posted by summerthyme View Post
    Jubilee... I Do know where you're coming from, but I also know how VERY ill you feel when you are in the throes if a truly serious illness. I haven't seen plague, obviously, but I doubt it's materially different from any other illness where you have high fever, not to mention severe pneumonia and bleeding into the lungs.

    If the progress of the disease is as quick as I've been reading, most people are going to be at death's door and way too weak to try to get to a doctor or pharmacy at the stage they are the most contagious.

    Certainly, they are going to be calling 911 and begging for help... our first responders will need to be very wary of the potential for plague, and I hope there are serious plans for barrier precautions (mask and gloves, especially)

    Please note, if this gets to this country, I won't be taking any chances. But even with a 100% mortality rate for pneumonia plague (if untreated), Europe lost "only" 1/3 of their population over 5 years in the worst historical epidemic... before any knowledge of germ theory, basic hygiene, or antibiotics.

    The biggest "new" issue I can see in terms of modern life potentially making a bigger problem than it was in earlier times is the transportation thing. When travel was by foit ire horseback, it was pretty impossible to cover more than 30 miles in a day. That kept the plague from "leapfrogging" across countries or continents. These days, it can show up where no one us expecting it...

    Summerthyme
    They will just call 911 and expect an ambulance to pick them up, happens all of the time.

  39. #199
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    Quote Originally Posted by summerthyme View Post
    Again, I'm NOT denying that this is a potentially serious (or even disastrous) problem, especially if it does escape Africa. However, PLEASE read this link:

    https://academic.oup.com/cid/article...n-of-Pneumonic

    Among other interesting facts is that studies show that it's not highly contagious UNTIL THE END STAGES... once a person begins coughing up blood, their sputum is nearly a pure culture of the bacteria. However, before that time, they aren't breathing out plague bacteria with every breath- or even every cough.

    I suspect not too many people are going to be out running around once they get to the truly contagious stage. (there will always be exceptions, of course!)

    READ THE LINK, please! It will give you some factual basis for preps, and for the mental preps for those who like to play those games... you know, "how would I treat this if a family member got it" sort of thing...

    As Melodi points out, the problems will be exacerbated by our "just in time" system, where a certain number of doses of any of the effective antibiotics are available at any point in time, in any particular place, and there likely isn't a lot of elasticity in the system. They MAY be able to- for example- increase the production of doxycycline by 10%... maybe even 50%. But if plague suddenly hits thousands, the demand may increase 500% or more. And having read the list of effective antibiotics, doxy is probably the least potentially toxic of them.

    https://www.cdc.gov/plague/resources...wVGwqxvWvVbWxd

    By the way, ADC still does have doxy available, although I don't know how long that will last.

    Summerthyme
    Last link not working for me.
    "...Cry 'Havoc' and let slip the cats of war..."
    Razor sharpening while you wait - Occam
    If it works, it doesn't have enough features. - Windows 10 design philosophy.
    Forget the beer, I'm just here for the doom!
    Humans, just a tool for amino acids to make Swiss watches.

  40. #200
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    Quote Originally Posted by Publius View Post
    The worst posable outcome this will kill off 8/10th of the problem that created the problem, it will take many decades for the population to build back up for it to happen again.
    And this is a problem how?
    "...Cry 'Havoc' and let slip the cats of war..."
    Razor sharpening while you wait - Occam
    If it works, it doesn't have enough features. - Windows 10 design philosophy.
    Forget the beer, I'm just here for the doom!
    Humans, just a tool for amino acids to make Swiss watches.

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