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HEALTH Madagascar Hospitals On High Alert: ‘No One Is Safe’ From The Black Plague
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  1. #41
    Hoping for a defined protocol for returning members of Doctors without boarders.

  2. #42
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    Maunder Minimum (30 year cycle) right about now suggests the weather will continue to be odd in places where it has never been like that before......
    True North Strong and Free

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam2 View Post
    [center][b]Although the black plague can be treated effectively with antibiotics, the incubation time of this bacteria is incredibly short. Death often occurs within 12-24 hours of becoming infected. The bubonic strain of the disease is spread through the bites of infected fleas, whereas the more contagious and deadly pneumonic type is spread through the coughing or sneezing of an infected person.
    Y'all need to be praying for a super freeze here in the states this winter BEFORE the snow flies and the ice coats everything. Another warm winter and we're going to have the same problem with fleas spreading the plague come next spring!
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laurane View Post
    The LDS Church pulled its missionaries from Madagascar this week - too risky.
    Hopefully they don't bring any fleas back with them!
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  5. #45
    Interesting thread.

    Thanks for the info..... now I know the difference(s).

    #38:

    Like the 14th century, modern populations have almost no immunity and huge numbers of people would be wiped out; and then like the second wave of the 14th century and the waves that came later; fewer would die (but still large numbers) especially the children who were not born during the last attack.

    There are a couple of comments in BS related to this type of thing for those interested.

    I would think that immunity to variola is likewise almost non existent today.

    30 years ago I inquired of MDs here about vaccination for my children and got the reply that is was no longer required or needed.

    My response to that is not suitable for placing on this page.

  6. #46
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    So this has been going on for a while and they are just now telling us about it?

    Talk about maximizing potential spread...
    "Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable."
    --John F. Kennedy

  7. #47
    This is scary. Madagascar seems so far off the beaten path, but there's an Air France flight en route from Paris to Antananarivo right now. I'm sure there'll be a return service. Imagine the number of people from all over the world, who have connecting flights through Paris.This could spread very easily.

  8. #48
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    You can only hope the general public realizes that pneumonic plague is far more contagious than bubonic plague. It only takes that one infected person to cause a pandemic.
    "In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." George Orwell

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by goosebeans View Post
    This is scary. Madagascar seems so far off the beaten path, but there's an Air France flight en route from Paris to Antananarivo right now. I'm sure there'll be a return service. Imagine the number of people from all over the world, who have connecting flights through Paris.This could spread very easily.
    It only takes one infected flea to hop on board that plan and then it becomes mass depopulation on a global scale.
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  10. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by mecoastie View Post
    Here is the PDF for the WHO Plague Manual. It includes treatment.

    http://www.bvsde.paho.org/texcom/cd0...aguemanual.pdf
    Aminoglycosides: streptomycin and gentamicin

    Streptomycin is the most effective antibiotic against Y. pestis and the
    drug of choice for treatment of plague, particularly the pneumonic form
    (2-6). Therapeutic effect may be expected with 30 mg/kg/day (up to a total
    of 2 g/day) in divided doses given intramuscularly, to be continued for a
    full course of 10 days of therapy or until 3 days after the temperature has
    returned to normal. Gentamicin has been found to be effective in animal
    studies, and is used to treat human plague patients (7-10).


    Chloramphenicol

    Chloramphenicol is a suitable alternative to aminoglycosides in the
    treatment of bubonic or septicaemic plague and is the drug of choice for
    treatment of patients with Y. pestis invasion of tissue spaces into which
    other drugs pass poorly or not at all (such as plague meningitis, pleuritis,
    or endophthalmitis) (3,4,11,12). Dosage should be 50 mg/kg/day
    administered in divided doses either parenterally or, if tolerated, orally for
    10 days. Chloramphenicol may be used adjunctively with aminoglycosides.
    WHO/CDS/CSR/EDC/99.2 Plague Manual
    Epidemiology, Distribution, Surveillance and Control
    56


    Tetracyclines
    This group of antibiotics is bacteriostatic but effective in the
    primary treatment of patients with uncomplicated plague (3-5). An oral
    loading dose of 15 mg/kg tetracycline (not to exceed 1 g total) should be
    followed by 25-50 mg/kg/day (up to a total of 2 g/day) for 10 days.
    Tetracyclines may also be used adjunctively with other antibiotics.
    Sulfonamides
    Sulfonamides have been used extensively in plague treatment and
    prevention; however, some studies have shown higher mortality, increased
    complications, and longer duration of fever as compared with the use of
    streptomycin, chloramphenicol or tetracycline antibiotics (3-6,13).
    Sulfadiazine is given as a loading dose of 2-4 g followed by a dose of 1 g
    every 4-6 hours for a period of 10 days. In children, the oral loading dose
    is 75 mg/kg, followed by 150 mg/kg/day orally in six divided doses. The
    combination drug trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole has been used both in
    treatment and prevention of plague (6,14,15).


    Fluoroquinolones
    Fluoroquinolones, such as ciprofloxacin, have been shown to have
    good effect against Y. pestis in both in vitro and animal studies (16,17).
    Ciprofloxacin is bacteriocidal and has broad spectrum activity against most
    Gram-negative aerobic bacteria, including Enterobacteriaceae and
    Pseudomonas aeruginosa, as well as against many Gram-positive bacteria.
    Although it has been used successfully to treat humans with Francisella
    tularensis infection (18,19), no studies have been published on its use in
    treating human plague.


    Other classes of antibiotics (penicillins, cephalosporins, macrolides)
    These classes of antibiotics have been shown to be ineffective or of
    variable effect in treatment of plague and they should not be used for this
    purpose.

  11. #51
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    http://www.hickoryrecord.com/news/wo...1890ae449.html

    This is an AP article stating that this year is unusual for the high numbers in the capital city. I did a quick look at that flight tracker website and it shows four international flights leaving the capital city, several 777's, that's a lot of folks!!
    "Courage is fear holding on a minute longer". George S. Patton

    "Prepare for the unknown by studying how others in the past have coped with the unforeseeable and the unpredictable". George S. Patton

  12. #52
    It is a lot, Optimus P.

    I was telling myself: " At least we are out here in the sticks, fairly isolated, very few visitors. The chances of it coming here are pretty slim..." Then, my friend shows up, she's French. Her only living relative just died and left her his house and a small inheritance. Her first words were: "Well, I'm going to have to go to France ( through Paris ), to fill out all the paperwork ,sort out the house and put it up for sale"



    Really, nowhere's safe from something like this, once it gets out.

  13. #53
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    There is no hiding, I'm afraid. I'm here in a small rural town and I know someone who lives here who has recently done missionary work in Madagascar.
    Mail Order Shortbread Cookies & More!

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  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by ainitfunny View Post
    Actually PNEUMONIC PLAGUE, as I understand it, cuts the fleas out of the picture and takes off as AIRBORNE PERSON TO PERSON disease!

    That is WHY they say ANYONE can catch pneumonic plague, no matter how "clean" and removed from any dirty, buggy, environment and how much they avoid touching sick people. All healthy people have to do is BREATHE where a (LIVING, BREATHING,) infected person with pneumonic plague has been!!

    The incredibly short "time from exposure to death'' period (12-24 HOURS!) is the ONLY "saving grace", in that it should die out quickly if people wear N95 masks and are preventing from assembling, riding public transportation, and essentially avoid each other for a week or two. Curing it with antibiotics is usually easy, except it is usually too far progressed towards death by the time people realize what hit them!

    Getting people to self-isolate as much as possible, suspending everything that CAN be suspended (school, athletics, shopping, meetings whatever) is the biggest obstacle to stopping it. That is even harder to do in an Urban environment!

    They also need to get everyone (at least in the cities!) into N95 face masks (WITHOUT EXHALE VALVES!) ASAP, like LAST WEEK!
    Rural citizens have it much easier isolating from each other than city dwellers.

    Masks must, MUST cover the NOSE or it is as if they are not wearing a mask at all!!

    Getting people to self isolate...

    Oh boy, let’s really talk about how weak people are mentally and spiritually, let alone physically.

    I believe it was around the Summer of 2014 when Ebola was setting off alarm bells from Africa to CON-US. At that time I attempted to slowly raise the awareness level of the disease and it’s potential spread-sheet data to the wife, her bright but foolish son, and the rebellious kitten-niece.

    I learned my lesson as they broke down in individual ways. People are weak, and live in a defined comfort zone. I see this every day in her sons relationship priorities. A totally inept *****. Useless, and a total liability under times of duress.

    I have two strategies for any over the top chaotic times that should unfold. Zip-ties, endure the lecture of my protocols, or GTFO—>

    Plan B is I excuse myself.

    I never get sick and I’m enduring a 2nd night off because juniors social networking embraces snot nosed peers. 24 going on 15, with the expectations of a working guy but no job.

  15. #55
    Plan B.
    I've always done better on my own in a crises.
    Dealing with others is invariably a time-wasting PITA!

  16. #56
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    If one infected person gets on one international flight to anywhere, it is game over. The disease is spread through coughing, sneezing and breathing. This is called the disease vector which is airborne. Airlines don't recycle the cabin air more than they have to because it costs money to do so. We already have multiple cases of people getting infected with TB merely from sitting within three rows of an infected person and breathing recycled air.

    If somebody was just infected with this disease, and wasn't showing symptoms, which take up to 24 hours, and then flew somewhere, got off they would infect people on the airplane, people they came in contact with at the airport, the taxi driver, well you get the idea.

    Yep, all air travel from this island should/must have quarantine protocols implemented immediately. By the way, out English word quarantine comes from the Italian word for 40. The Venetians would force any ship headed into their harbor to anchor offshore for 40 days, on the assumption if nobody died they were okay. If they all died, or most of them, they would just go out and burn the ship to ash.
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" will soon be available for sale at smashwords. The url is
    https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/267340 It is also at the following url
    http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU

  17. #57
    Hypothetical nightmare:

    Infected individual roams around Times Square New Year's Eve.

    By January 15, 2018 all hell is breaking loose.

  18. #58
    The first game of the World Series in going on tonight.

  19. #59
    A quick read of a few articles (Guardian, Live Science, etc.) gave some details: 805 cases, and 74 dead so far. IIRC, these are all confirmed cases.

    The first guy to die caught it in August while traveling. Apparently, Madagascar has a couple hundred cases every year (and this time of year is known as the season for Plague), but they haven't been airborne. Also, the early symptoms can get taken for Malaria, so no one was alarmed about it until recently.

    Also, a suspected case in the Sychelles islands (spell?).

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Faroe View Post
    A quick read of a few articles (Guardian, Live Science, etc.) gave some details: 805 cases, and 74 dead so far. IIRC, these are all confirmed cases.

    The first guy to die caught it in August while traveling. Apparently, Madagascar has a couple hundred cases every year (and this time of year is known as the season for Plague), but they haven't been airborne. Also, the early symptoms can get taken for Malaria, so no one was alarmed about it until recently.

    Also, a suspected case in the Sychelles islands (spell?).
    Last count I read is over 1,000 cases and 108 dead.
    Proverbs 18:13 Wycliffe Bible (WYC)

    13 He that answereth before that he heareth, showeth himself to be a fool; and worthy of shame.

  21. #61
    Yup. I didn't find those exact numbers, but did just find a few articles citing 100+ dead, and 1000+ cases.
    We'll see what they report tomorrow.
    I don't think they will be containing it anytime soon.

  22. #62
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    Just checked, NOW 124 dead 1133 infected.
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/madagasca...175334425.html

    wHO has already delivered 1.2 MILLION doses of antibiotics!


    This video eventually gets to telling WHERE in the USA plague is already!
    (Arizona,(Navaho county & Cococino? county sp? , California squirrils, chipmunks rats other rodents in the back country (Yosemite valley )(chipmunks infected at Falling leaf campground at Lake Tahoe,) people are advised NOT to take their PETS camping/hiking with them where Plague fleas may be ENDEMIC (common)
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gRMtGy-FURA
    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gRMtGy-FURA
    Last edited by ainitfunny; 10-24-2017 at 10:43 PM.
    Proverbs 18:13 Wycliffe Bible (WYC)

    13 He that answereth before that he heareth, showeth himself to be a fool; and worthy of shame.

  23. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optimus Prime View Post
    You can go to All Day Chemist, online pharmacy in India. We've used it exclusively for our MAG. I pull meds out of our ER pyxis all the time made by Cipla.

    Order 14 (one per day for 14 days) Levaquin 500mg pills, 0.26 each for a total of $3.64,,,,,or

    28 (2 per day for 14 days) Cipro 500mg pills, 0.41 each for a total of $11.48

    One or the other for each member of your group

    This news must be putting pressure on suppliers, all Doxy is sold out. Of course YMMV depending on allergies, etc...
    How are you ordering without a script? Emailed them about one med and they told me I needed a script.

  24. #64
    I just placed an order, didn't answer the prescription question, but did answer the three boxes about allergies, smoking and I don't remember the last one.
    Been reading for years, just now starting to talk.

  25. #65
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    Here is a pdf from the CDC with the antibiotics for plague:

    https://www.cdc.gov/plague/resources...(00000002).pdf

  26. #66
    OK source warning this is The Sun a UK Tabloid but still rather interesting - best viewed at link with lots of photos..https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/476580...om-madagascar/

    DEATH IS COMING Black death warning in NINE countries – including Brit holiday hotspots – amid fears PLAGUE could spread on flights from Madagascar
    The deadly plague outbreak has struck Madagascar's major cities sparking fears it has yet to 'peak' and could spread into the surrounding region.
    EXCLUSIVE
    By Corey Charlton
    25th October 2017, 5:53 pmUpdated: 25th October 2017, 8:19 pm
    Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)
    8
    COMMENTS
    PLAGUE warnings have been issued for NINE countries surrounding Madagascar amid fears the disease could spread via sea trade and flight routes.

    The outbreak is considered a much bigger threat to the region than in previous years because it has taken on its pneumonic form - meaning it is airborne and spread by sneezing and coughing.

    WHO has issued alerts for nine countries surrounding Madagascar where the outbreak has occurred
    9
    WHO has issued alerts for nine countries surrounding Madagascar where the outbreak has occurred
    And experts say the epidemic could still worsen as the death tolls hits 124 and more than 1,300 left infected.

    The Medieval disease famously wiped out ONE THIRD of Europe's population in the 13th and 14th centuries in one of the most devastating pandemics in human history known as the Black Death.

    –– ADVERTISEMENT ––


    Dr Ashok Chopra, a professor of microbiology and immunology at the University of Texas, told The Sun Online the crisis in Madagascar had yet to peak.

    He warned it was possible for the deadly plague to move further into the region given the regular flights going in and out of the country.

    Red Cross officials work in Antananarivo, Madagascar, where the plague has struckAFP OR LICENSORS
    9
    Red Cross officials work in Antananarivo, Madagascar, where the plague has struck
    A doctor from the local Ministry of Health staffs a heath care checkpointAFP OR LICENSORS
    9
    A doctor from the local Ministry of Health staffs a heath care checkpoint
    "If they are travelling shorter distances and they're still in the incubation period, and they have the pneumonic (form) then they could spread it to other places.

    "We don't want to have a situation where the disease spreads so fast it sort of gets out of control."

    He added: "Most of the cases in the past have been of the bubonic plague but if you look at this particular outbreak, 70 percent of the cases are pneumonic plague, which is the most deadly form of the disease.

    "If the treatment is not given in a very short period of time these people will end up dying."

    Some 1,300 people have been infected by the deadly Medieval diseaseAFP OR LICENSORS
    9
    Some 1,300 people have been infected by the deadly Medieval disease
    If they do not receive antibiotics immediately, the disease is extremely deadlyAFP OR LICENSORS
    9
    If they do not receive antibiotics immediately, the disease is extremely deadly
    Plague symptoms include sudden fevers, head and body aches, vomiting and nausea.

    Dr Chopra added that it spreads "very rapidly", as seen by the number of cases in Madagascar doubling within a week.

    Speaking from Madagascar, Christine South, head of IFRC's emergency operations, said: "With anything like this there is a possibility that somebody could be infected and get on a plane.

    "We have done preparedness support to some of the neighbouring countries."

    However, she added that she believed the plague outbreak may now be stabilising but medical staff would have a clearer understand of this over the next few days.

    Tourists have been warned to stay away from Madagascar after the outbreak of plague left more than 120 deadGETTY - CONTRIBUTOR
    9
    Tourists have been warned to stay away from Madagascar after the outbreak of plague left more than 120 dead
    The Black Death decimated the population of Europe when it swept through the continent in the 1300sALAMY
    9
    The Black Death decimated the population of Europe when it swept through the continent in the 1300s
    Plague is a bacterial disease which swept through medieval Europe and has cropped up occasionally in the centuries sinceCUSTOM MEDICAL STOCK PHOTO - GETTY
    9
    Plague is a bacterial disease which swept through medieval Europe and has cropped up occasionally in the centuries since
    According to the World Health Organisation, the disease - which has struck heavily populated cities - sparked a false alarm in the Seychelles after a traveller reported symptoms of the disease.

    WHO stated: "The risk of regional spread is moderate due to the occurrence of frequent travel by air and sea to neighbouring Indian Ocean islands and other southern and east African countries."

    "Nine countries and overseas territories have been identified as priority countries in the African region for plague preparedness and readiness by virtue of having trade and travel links to Madagascar.

    "These countries and overseas territories include Comoros, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, La Réunion (France), Seychelles, South Africa, and Tanzania."

    WHAT IS THE PLAGUE?
    It has an extremely high fatality rate and is very infectious, although it can be treated by antibiotics if it's caught early.There are three forms of plague infection: pneumoic plague, septicaemic plague and bubonic plague, the most common form.Bubonic plague was known as the Black Death in medieval Europe, where an outbreak brought entire civilisations to their knees and decimated the world's population.Black Death is spread through the bite of infected fleas, whereas pneumonic plague, the most contagious form, develops after a bubonic infection.Pneumonic infections can then be spread through the air, while septicaemic plague occurs when infection spreads through the bloodstream.
    The Black Death often conjures up chilling images of masked plague doctors, who would stuff fresh herbs and spices in their 'beaks' to deal with the smellGETTY - CONTRIBUTOR
    9
    The Black Death often conjures up chilling images of masked plague doctors, who would stuff fresh herbs and spices in their 'beaks' to deal with the smell

    We pay for your stories! Do you have a story for The Sun Online news team? Email us at tips@the-sun.co.uk or call 0207 782 4368 . We pay for videos too. Click here to upload yours.'
    expatriate Californian living in rural Ireland with husband, dogs, horses. garden and many, many cats

  27. #67
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    Let's say you catch the plague, have symptoms, treat it with antibiotics, are cured. Do you now have resistance to it for your next exposure in a month? How about next year, etc?
    "...Cry 'Havoc' and let slip the cats of war..."
    Razor sharpening while you wait - Occam
    If it works, it doesn't have enough features. - Windows 10 design philosophy.
    Forget the beer, I'm just here for the doom!
    Humans, just a tool for amino acids to make Swiss watches.

  28. #68
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    If this is really going to turn into a global pandemic, then a certain process will start to happen.

    One: the numbers of deaths and infected people will continue to increase in the host country. Further, the RATE of increase will start to increase.

    Two. The geographic spread of the disease will begin to happen. The rate of spread will also start to increase.

    Three. Given the reality of modern media practices, "it" will only start to be noticed globally when the first cases happen in "countries that matter," IE FIRST WORLD COUNTRIES.

    Four: The disease spread will only become "real" once the first cases are CONFIRMED on global, international airline flights to Europe, the USA or Asia.

    Five: The spin control efforts, by the CDC, WHO etc will start to happen, AND THEN START TO FAIL AS THE GLOBAL PANDEMIC GATHERS STEAM.

    Yep, we are right on the edge here, gang. If the above pattern is valid, and I think it is, we will know by Halloween whether TSHTF pandemic wise.

    Once that happens, the hysteria will be both total and global. Again, the infection vector is airborne, which means coughing, sneezing and breathing will spread the plague.
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" will soon be available for sale at smashwords. The url is
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  29. #69
    Let's send Hillary, Bill, and Obama on a speaking tour of Madagascar.

  30. #70
    Quote Originally Posted by mecoastie View Post
    Here is a pdf from the CDC with the antibiotics for plague:

    https://www.cdc.gov/plague/resources...(00000002).pdf
    Thanks, nice chart I saved that one to my laptop

  31. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by garnetgirl View Post
    There is no hiding, I'm afraid. I'm here in a small rural town and I know someone who lives here who has recently done missionary work in Madagascar.

    And, now I know two families in my circle that are traveling to Uganda for missionary work next week ~ they will be there for four weeks. Uganda borderlines those countries noted in The Sun article. I sure wish there was a more mainstream media article available. This is getting a little too close to home.
    Mail Order Shortbread Cookies & More!

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  32. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doomer Doug View Post
    If this is really going to turn into a global pandemic, then a certain process will start to happen.

    One: the numbers of deaths and infected people will continue to increase in the host country. Further, the RATE of increase will start to increase.

    Two. The geographic spread of the disease will begin to happen. The rate of spread will also start to increase.

    Three. Given the reality of modern media practices, "it" will only start to be noticed globally when the first cases happen in "countries that matter," IE FIRST WORLD COUNTRIES.

    Four: The disease spread will only become "real" once the first cases are CONFIRMED on global, international airline flights to Europe, the USA or Asia.

    Five: The spin control efforts, by the CDC, WHO etc will start to happen, AND THEN START TO FAIL AS THE GLOBAL PANDEMIC GATHERS STEAM.

    Yep, we are right on the edge here, gang. If the above pattern is valid, and I think it is, we will know by Halloween whether TSHTF pandemic wise.

    Once that happens, the hysteria will be both total and global. Again, the infection vector is airborne, which means coughing, sneezing and breathing will spread the plague.
    Imagine if Pneumonic plague was brought on to a Cruise Ship by an infected passenger!!
    They may have a life jacket for every passenger, but they perhaps SHOULD carry an N95 mask for every passenger and crew too, of course, they DON'T.
    Proverbs 18:13 Wycliffe Bible (WYC)

    13 He that answereth before that he heareth, showeth himself to be a fool; and worthy of shame.

  33. #73
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    The latest figures from Madasgascar are grim.

    Here is a link to an October 16th story. The death toll is 57 with 680 infected.

    http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/16/health...eak-continues/

    LESS THAN SIX DAYS LATER THE TOTAL WAS 74 DEAD AND 800 INFECTED

    THE LINK IS HERE

    https://www.theguardian.com/global-d...oll-reaches-74

    Finally, we have the total from today, October 25th.

    http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireSto...ation-50701960

    THE TOTAL AS OF 12 HOURS AGO WAS 124 DEAD AND 1,192 INFECTED. OF THOSE 1,192 TWO THIRDS NEARLY 800 ARE AIRBORNE INFECTED CASES. Again, the actual cases may be higher since I have seen reports of over 1300 total cases.

    It is all about how fast the numbers increase and the rate of increase.

    The increase over six days, from the 57 on the 16th, to the 74 on the 21st, or 22nd, was 17, or a 33 percent increase in deaths. HOWEVER, THE INCREASE FROM THE 21ST, OR 22ND, TO THE 25TH-A MERE THREE DAYS WAS 53, WHICH WAS THE TOTAL NUMBER OF DEATHS UP TO THE 16TH, WHICH AGAIN IS ONLY NINE DAYS.

    In nine days, from the 16th to the 25, the total number of cases has nearly doubled, from 680 to a MINIMUM of 1200. The number of deaths has also doubled, from 57 to 124, actually a little over an 100 percent increase.

    Yep, if the rate of increase holds steady, or increases, we will be looking at roughly 250 dead and 2500 infected in a time frame of 3 days, 6 days or 9 days.

    These numbers only reflect what is happening on the island of Madasgasar itself. It doesn't factor in anybody being infected, getting on an airplane and spreading the infection to other places.
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  34. #74
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    HERE WE GO

    I am going to repost the story from today, October 25th, 2017, because I want to highlight some critical issues. If the rate of nearly doubling over a 9 day period, for both the death and infection rate holds, this means that a base of 124 will become first 250, then 500, and then 1000 deaths in less than a month. AT that point, the 1000 becomes 2000, and the 2,000 becomes 4,000 and the 4,000 becomes 8,000. This means by the end of 2017 we could be easily looking at 16,000 to 32,000 dead in Madasgascar alone by 12-31-2017.

    The link is here.

    http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireSto...ation-50701960

    Madagascar's plague deaths up to 124, island nation says

    By The Associated Press

    JOHANNESBURG — Oct 25, 2017, 5:35 AM ET

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    Authorities in Madagascar say the death toll from a plague outbreak has reached 124 people as the disease for the first time affects the Indian Ocean island's two biggest cities.

    The nation's disaster risk management office says 1,192 cases have been identified. More than two-thirds of cases are of the more virulent pneumonic form.

    The office says less than 30 percent of people who have had contact with plague patients can be traced, making it more difficult to control the spread of the disease.

    Plague is endemic in Madagascar. This year's outbreak is unusual because it has reached the nation's two largest cities, Antananarivo and Toamasina.
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" will soon be available for sale at smashwords. The url is
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  35. #75
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    Not one of the Red Cross or health care workers pictured in the link that Melodi posted was wearing a mask of any kind.
    Every Time History Repeats Itself The Price Goes Up.

  36. #76
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    The other issue, besides it being airborne, is we are dealing with yet another dysfunctional, third world health care system. I would say not wearing masks in a plague zone, with an airborne vector is the definition of insanity.

    If it is going to turn into a regional or global pandemic, we should start to see the numbers head up over the next month. Granted, if accurate numbers vanish from the media, then that confirms things are going critical. This particular disease version, even if it only has a 50 percent kill rate, after treatment, is potentially catastrophic. Can you imagine if an airborne plague virus sets up shop in Cairo, or Calcutta, or Lagos, Nigeria with its 20 million plus people?
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" will soon be available for sale at smashwords. The url is
    https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/267340 It is also at the following url
    http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU

  37. #77
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    Black death warning in NINE countries – including Brit holiday hotspots – amid fears PLAGUE could spread on flights from Madagascar

    The deadly plague outbreak has struck Madagascar's major cities sparking fears it has yet to 'peak' and could spread into the surrounding region.

    The outbreak is considered a much bigger threat to the region than in previous years because it has taken on its pneumonic form - meaning it is airborne and spread by sneezing and coughing.

    And experts say the epidemic could still worsen as the death tolls hits 124 and more than 1,300 left infected.

    The Medieval disease famously wiped out ONE THIRD of Europe's population in the 13th and 14th centuries in one of the most devastating pandemics in human history known as the Black Death.

    Dr Ashok Chopra, a professor of microbiology and immunology at the University of Texas, told The Sun Online the crisis in Madagascar had yet to peak.

    He warned it was possible for the deadly plague to move further into the region given the regular flights going in and out of the country.



    "If they are travelling shorter distances and they're still in the incubation period, and they have the pneumonic (form) then they could spread it to other places.

    "We don't want to have a situation where the disease spreads so fast it sort of gets out of control."

    He added: "Most of the cases in the past have been of the bubonic plague but if you look at this particular outbreak, 70 percent of the cases are pneumonic plague, which is the most deadly form of the disease.

    "If the treatment is not given in a very short period of time these people will end up dying."

    Plague symptoms include sudden fevers, head and body aches, vomiting and nausea.

    Dr Chopra added that it spreads "very rapidly", as seen by the number of cases in Madagascar doubling within a week.

    Speaking from Madagascar, Christine South, head of IFRC's emergency operations, said: "With anything like this there is a possibility that somebody could be infected and get on a plane.

    "We have done preparedness support to some of the neighbouring countries."

    However, she added that she believed the plague outbreak may now be stabilising but medical staff would have a clearer understand of this over the next few days.

    According to the World Health Organisation, the disease - which has struck heavily populated cities - sparked a false alarm in the Seychelles after a traveller reported symptoms of the disease.

    WHO stated: "The risk of regional spread is moderate due to the occurrence of frequent travel by air and sea to neighbouring Indian Ocean islands and other southern and east African countries."

    "Nine countries and overseas territories have been identified as priority countries in the African region for plague preparedness and readiness by virtue of having trade and travel links to Madagascar.

    "These countries and overseas territories include Comoros, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, La Réunion (France), Seychelles, South Africa, and Tanzania."

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/476580...om-madagascar/
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  38. #78
    Quote Originally Posted by 2Trish View Post
    You can only hope the general public realizes that pneumonic plague is far more contagious than bubonic plague. It only takes that one infected person to cause a pandemic.
    They won't comprehend it, heck a large portion of the general public are confused as to their own gender identity.

  39. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by WestGardener View Post
    They won't comprehend it, heck a large portion of the general public are confused as to their own gender identity.
    LOL!!
    A logical assumption.

    I would hope it stays out of South Africa, a first world nation, (at least it WAS) because of the intense travel and trade they have with the US!
    Last edited by ainitfunny; 10-26-2017 at 02:20 AM.
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  40. #80
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    I am now tracking the spread of this "new black death." The type of increase, in both dead and infected can either be geometric or not. The next issue is whether, or when, the disease spreads further on Madagascar, which it has with the cases in the second city, or gets to one of the nine countries mentioned, or escapes the regional area and gets to Europe, Asia or the USA.

    A global pandemic is a sequential, phased kind of issue. The truly terrifying part of one of the above posts was the local health authorities can only skip trace 30 percent of the total. This means there are now hundreds, maybe thousands of infected people now beyond treatment at this point. This 70 percent is now scattered all over Madasgasar, or gone to one of the nine countries, or got on a jet and flew to Paris, or Toyko or wherever.

    I don't think we will have to wait long for a more definitive understanding of whether we are facing a global pandemic or not. The reason is if the rate of dead and infected keeps rising, and continues doubling every 6 to 9 days, it won't be more than another month before it is clear what the extent of the disease is.

    Three things need to happen for a global pandemic to happen.

    First, you have to have a significantly lethal strain infecting people.
    Second, you have to have a vector of transmission, ie airborne, or caught from breathing the same air, or being coughed or sneezed on. In fact, one sneeze can spread out for several yards and infect people. Obviously, if they are on a plane flying for several hours then an infection is guaranteed for anybody sitting within two or three seat rows from the person sneezing or coughing.
    Third, you have to have an increasing rate of both death and infection.
    Fourth, you have to have an increasing geographic spread of the disease.

    The first test has already been met.
    The second test has already been met.
    The third test is underway and we will just have to wait a month or so to see how large the absolute numbers of both dead and infected become.
    The fourth test has not been met since there are no reported cases outside of Madagascar at this point. The potential for a wider spread of the disease is certainly there. It may even be a case, given the dysfunctional health care systems in Africa, we may have cases in South Africa or Kenya and not know about them at this time. There is also the issue of government's intentionally suppressing information about the outbreak. This has been done before with SARS, Bird Flu and Ebola.

    I am in a wait and see mode. I know full well that if we are one month from now talking about disease outbreaks in multiple countries, especially if they are not limited to Africa, involving thousands, and maybe even tens of thousands of dead and infected, well at that point TSHTF big time.

    Personally, the level of near total chaos now ongoing on Planet Earth, from Fukushima, North Korea, Iraq and Iran, various hurricanes, storms and fires means a global pandemic would just ice the cake for me.
    Doomer Doug, a.k.a. Doug McIntosh now has a blog at www.doomerdoug.wordpress.com
    My end of the world e book "Day of the Dogs" will soon be available for sale at smashwords. The url is
    https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/267340 It is also at the following url
    http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B007BRLFYU

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