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WEATHER Tropical Storm Jose
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  1. #1

    Tropical Storm Jose

    It's looking to be about the same size, maybe a bit less, at about the same spot Irma was roughly 5 days ago. And if it grows and follows the same track, all of these places are going to get pounded ... again?

    Is this normal?

  2. #2
    Is this normal?
    It's perfectly normal for September.
    Most models are showing Jose staying well out to sea.

    If this year is like the last several, there could be as many as 10 more storms before it's over.

  3. #3
    I don't think I'd call it perfectly normal.

    There are several named storms each year but I don't recall a Cat 5 hitting just days after a Cat 4 hit with a Cat 2 close behind. And let's not forget the system winding up in the Gulf.

    Having all this at virtually the same time is not normal.
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  4. #4
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    IT"S GLOBAL WARMING... err.. CLIMATE CHANGE!

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  5. #5
    Just upgraded to a CAT 4.

  6. #6
    Jose may finish off St. Martin. There are Twitter posts reporting that things are getting feral there now...looting, raping and general criminal mayhem. Dutch military just got there and French troops on the way. Not too sure we will be going there for Christmas this year. Some doubt in my mind that the locals can pull off a huge recovery in three months.

  7. #7
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    I thought it was a Cat3 hurricane?
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by evenso View Post
    I don't think I'd call it perfectly normal.

    There are several named storms each year but I don't recall a Cat 5 hitting just days after a Cat 4 hit with a Cat 2 close behind. And let's not forget the system winding up in the Gulf.

    Having all this at virtually the same time is not normal.
    It happened in 2010.
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  9. #9
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    I thought I heard somewhere that the colder wake of Irma would weaken Jose. Supposedly the temp after Irma drops. My cousin who is staying in Seminole said they expect Jose to turn out to sea. That would be the best scenario.
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  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maryh View Post
    I thought I heard somewhere that the colder wake of Irma would weaken Jose. Supposedly the temp after Irma drops. My cousin who is staying in Seminole said they expect Jose to turn out to sea. That would be the best scenario.
    It'll most probably hit Nova Scotia and then peter out somewhere around Newfoundland.
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by packyderms_wife View Post
    It happened in 2010.
    Like he said just like 2010.
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  12. #12
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    Hurricane Jose is a Cat 4 Storm

    11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 8
    Location: 16.3°N 57.1°W
    Moving: WNW at 18 mph
    Min pressure: 942 mb
    Max sustained: 150 mph

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...nd120#contents

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Meadowlark View Post
    Like he said just like 2010.
    Oh no...it's the Hallib..... ha ha ha ha!

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by evenso View Post
    I don't think I'd call it perfectly normal.

    There are several named storms each year but I don't recall a Cat 5 hitting just days after a Cat 4 hit with a Cat 2 close behind. And let's not forget the system winding up in the Gulf.

    Having all this at virtually the same time is not normal.
    'Normal" for the last few years has been over 20 storms per year.
    Irma is no longer a Cat 5 and isn't likely to become one again.
    Jose isn't forecast to hit land in the US at all.

    September is peak hurricane season.
    These storms are normal and are matching the predictions pretty well.

  15. #15
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    http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/08/us/hur...ose/index.html

    Hurricane Jose strengthens to 'extremely dangerous' Category 4

    Eric Levenson
    By Eric Levenson, CNN
    Updated 1:04 PM ET, Fri September 8, 2017

    Wind isn't the biggest worry during a hurricane 00:50
    (CNN)Hurricane Jose strengthened to an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 storm Friday, with maximum sustained winds near 150 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

    The storm sits east of the Leeward Islands and is forecast to move west-northwest into the Atlantic Ocean over the coming days.
    Hurricane Jose forecast track



    As of 11 a.m., a hurricane watch was in effect for Antigua, Barbuda and Anguilla; St. Martin; and St. Barts -- islands that were all just battered by Hurricane Irma.

    The eye of Irma passed over Barbuda, a tiny Caribbean island of about 1,800 residents, on Wednesday, destroying telecommunication systems and cell towers. The storm damaged about 95% of the buildings on the island, Prime Minister Gaston Browne said.



    Satellite imagery shows Category 4 Hurricane Irma approach the Bahamas, followed by Hurricane Jose approaching the Leeward Islands. Hurricane Katia spins in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
    This is the first time on record that the Atlantic has had two hurricanes with 150-plus mph winds at the same time, Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach said.

    In addition, Hurricane Katia in the Gulf of Mexico has maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and is expected to make landfall in Mexico early Saturday, the National Hurricane Center said.
    Fluctuations in Hurricane Jose's intensity are possible for the next day or so, the National Hurricane Center said, and the storm is expected to gradually weaken after that.
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  16. #16
    Good to see it's predicted to hook away.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lurker View Post
    Good to see it's predicted to hook away.
    yeppers, will most probably hit Nova Scotiak.
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  18. #18
    In 1492 Columbus was damned lucky!!!

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by dvo View Post
    Jose may finish off St. Martin. There are Twitter posts reporting that things are getting feral there now...looting, raping and general criminal mayhem. Dutch military just got there and French troops on the way. Not too sure we will be going there for Christmas this year. Some doubt in my mind that the locals can pull off a huge recovery in three months.
    So the indegenous troops are looting etc., and the Dutch and French are showing up to join the party?
    Let me guess, civilians not allowed to own guns?
    Last edited by Profit of Doom; 09-08-2017 at 03:39 PM. Reason: Added
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  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by evenso View Post
    I don't think I'd call it perfectly normal.

    There are several named storms each year but I don't recall a Cat 5 hitting just days after a Cat 4 hit with a Cat 2 close behind. And let's not forget the system winding up in the Gulf.

    Having all this at virtually the same time is not normal.
    Here's a chart of hurricanes Cat. 5. Almost all of them developed in September.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lists_...y_5_hurricanes

  21. #21
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    Hurricane Jose path update LIVE: Latest NOAA track & models as Jose follows Irma’s path

    HURRICANE Jose is hurtling through the Caribbean and is set to follow in Hurricane Irma's path around the Leeward Islands. Here are live updates on the hurricane's path, track and latest weather models.

    By REISS SMITH
    PUBLISHED: 22:05, Sat, Sep 9, 2017 | UPDATED: 22:18, Sat, Sep 9, 2017


    Hurricane Jose set to cause more destruction to Leeward Islands

    Bringing you the latest Hurricane Jose path updates, storm track, weather models, the latest forecasts, tracking maps and videos as the storm heads towards the Caribbean.

    The 2am EDT update, from the NHC, said the hurricane now has wind speeds of 150mph as it nears Category 5 status.

    Jose is a much weaker storm than Hurricane Irma, which is currently tearing through the Caribbean towards Florida, USA.

    We will have the latest Hurricane Jose news in one place, updated throughout the day and night until the storm has passed.

    Here are live updates from the the NOAA, National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the National Weather Service (NWS) as well as the most advanced weather models from around the world. All times EDT.

    HURRICANE IRMA PATH UPDATE LIVE

    Hurricane Irma: Damage in the Caribbean latest pictures
    Sat, September 9, 2017

    Hurricane Irma sowed a trail of deadly devastation through the Caribbean, reducing to rubble the tropical islands of Barbuda and St Martin and claiming at least 14 lives


    Residents and tourists stranded on the Northern Leeward Islands may have dodged a bullet as Hurricane Jose has began to weaken.

    In a 5pm update, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said the “core of dangerous Hurricane Jose will move away from the northern Leeward Islands tonight”.

    But Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas through this evening.

    Jose is expected to produce up to an inch of additional rainfall on Anguilla through this evening. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding.

    Tidal levels will gradually subside over the northern Leeward Islands tonight.

    15:00pm EDT: Hurricane's Jose's powerful centre churned north of a string of already battered Caribbean islands Saturday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said.

    Some islands were hit with tropical storm-force winds and rain that could exacerbate flooding.

    A Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph, Jose was about 95 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands around 2 p.m. ET, moving northwest at 14 mph, according to the center.

    That means tropical storm strength winds for islands such as Barbuda, Anguilla, and St. Martin, but still short of the force delivered by deadly Hurricane Irma, which battered those islands just days ago.

    11:00am: EDT: Hurricane Jose is continuing to roar west into the Caribbean, threatening to further devastate islands already battered by Hurricane Irma.

    St Martin and St Barthélemy are on their highest alerts - purple, with officials warning the northern Leeward islands that even the most unsuspecting object can be transformed into a deadly projectile.

    Hurricane Jose is declared a Category 4 hurricane, with latest NOAA National Hurricane Center forecasts predicting 145mph gusts and up to six inches of rain.

    Torrential rains are also expected, with conditions due to be so bad emergency services will not be able to operate.

    The Préfecture de Saint-Barthélemy et de Saint-Martin, France’s federal Government office, have warned residents of the islands to clear off the streets and get to safety immediately once the purple hurricane level of alert is activated today from 11.30am.

    They urged: “Go to your homes and emergency shelters.

    “Do not drive, in order not to interfere with the movement of emergency and rescue equipment and security forces.”

    8:00am EDT: Hurricane Jose’s wild movements are still underway as it chases Irma along the north of the Leeward islands.

    Sint Maarten, St Martin and St Barts will feel the full force of Jose, as a hurricane warning is still underway for the three Caribbean territories.

    The hurricane watch has ended for Antigua but is on tropical storm watch with the island braced for whipping winds which could still bring widespread devastation.

    However, it has moved path and Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis have ended their tropical storm watch.

    5:14am: EDT: The ferocious storm is now heading to the Leeward Islands at full force, according to the latest update from the NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC).

    The 5am EDT update said Storm Jose is expected to hit close to or just east of the northern Leeward Islands today as it is currently located around 190 miles (305 kmm) away from the northern part of the islands.

    Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are now effect for Antingua, as well as Barbuda and Anguilla, Sint Maarten, St Martin and St Barthelemy.

    2:31am EDT: Hurricane Jose is currently tearing through the Caribbean, and was last located just 240 miles (390km) from the Northern Leeward Islands.

    At 2am EDT hurricane warnings were in effect for Barbuda and Anguilla, Sint Maarten, St Martin and St Barthelemy.

    Jose is currently churning away with wind speeds of up to 150 mph (240 km/h) and is travelling at a speed of 14 mph (22 km/h)

    12pm AST – Jose nears Category 5

    Hurricane Jose now has wind speeds of 155mph as it nears Category 5 status.

    The storm is gaining in ferocity as residents from Barbuda flee to nearby Antigua, fearful of yet another natural disaster visiting their shores.

    5pm AST - Warning issued for parts of the Northern Leeward Islands

    Hurricane Jose remains a category four hurricane as hurricane warnings have been issued for parts of the Northern Leewards Islands.

    The hurricane is moving North West at a speed of 17mph with maximum winds of 150mph.

    This is the first time in history that two hurricanes with more than 150 mph winds have been recorded at the same time.

    2pm AST - Jose remains 'poweful hurricane over the Atlantic' according to the National Hurricane Center

    The winds of Hurricane Jose are getting up to 150mph

    It is forecast to move west-northwest into the Atlantic Ocean over the coming days.

    11.16pm: Jose now 'extremely dangerous'

    The latest Hurricane Jose update from the NHC is warning that the hurricane has become a very dangerous threat to the Caribbean.

    A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for:

    St. Thomas and St. John
    The British Virgin Islands
    St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.
    Sint Maarten.
    A Hurricane Watch is currently in effect for:

    Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
    Sint Maarten
    St. Martin
    St. Barthelemy
    A Tropical Storm Warning currently in effect for :

    Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
    St. Martin
    St. Barthelemy
    Sint Maarten

    A Tropical Storm Watch is currently in effect for:

    Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis
    Saba and St. Eustatius
    British Virgin Islands
    St. Thomas and St. John
    11.10pm: Fears for Barbuda ahead of Jose

    The island of Barbuda which has been completely devastated by Hurricane Irma is now on track to be slammed again by Hurricane Jose.

    Meteorologist Rob Carlmark tweeted: "It's unbelievable but #Barbuda could get hit AGAIN by a major hurricane tomorrow. Jose category 4 now."

    10am: Hurricane Jose is now a category 4 hurricane

    Data collected by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicates that Hurricane Jose has reached category 4 cyclone winds.

    Maximum sustained winds near the eye of the storm are being picked up at near near 150 mph (240 km/h).

    At 1pm EDT (3pm BST), Jose was only 435 miles (700 km) east-southeast of the devastated Leeward Islands.

    The cyclone is moving forward at a speed of 18 mph (30 km/h).

    10.00am: Guadeloupe scrap boat links ahead of Jose’s arrival

    Boat links from Guadeloupe to St Martin and St Barts – all three of which were badly hit by Hurricane Irma – have been cut due to the arrival of Jose.

    Officials said that “weather conditions are deteriorating and the northern islands are now in orange alert”.

    Hurricane Jose wind speed predictionsNHC•NOAA
    Hurricane Jose latest: Hurricane Jose has been upgraded to a category 4 cyclone
    9.25am: Barbuda evacuation underway

    Government offices will shortly (at 12pm) close in Barbuda as a mandatory evacuation gets underway.

    Barbuda’s 1,600 residents are being moved to its sister island Antigua as Hurricane Jose approaches.

    Earlier this week Hurricane Irma left Barbuda “barely habitable”, destroying 90 per cent of its buildings and killing at least one person.

    8am: Latest NOAA advisory

    The latest NOAA update puts Jose on track to arrive at the Leeward Islands on Saturday.

    The latest storm path shows Hurricane Jose skirting past the Leewards, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic before going into the North Atlantic.

    Landfall is not forecast at this time.

    Hurricane winds will bring heavy rain and dangerous swells to the Leewards.

    The NOAA said: “Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph.

    “A slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days.”

    “Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are expected within

    the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday morning.

    “Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch areas by Saturday morning.

    “Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 6 inches in the Leeward Islands from Dominica to Anguilla.

    “Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in the northern Leeward Islands from Antigua and Barbuda to Anguilla.

    “This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding.

    “Swells generated by Jose are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands by later today.

    “These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.”

    There are no changes to watches and warnings at this time.

    Hurricane Jose: Latest Maps
    Fri, September 8, 2017
    Hurricane Jose is hurtling through the Caribbean and is set to follow Hurricane Irma, updated daily



    Hurricane Jose path latest: The NHC expects Jose to become a major hurricane by Friday
    CLICK HERE FOR THE LATEST HURRICANE JOSE PATH UPDATES.

    4am: Jose to strengthen into category 4 hurricane

    Hurricane Jose is expected to strengthen into a category 4 hurricane.

    Alain Muzelec of Météo-France forecast that the storm will continue to strengthen, adding that it should not directly affect the Antilles.

    2am: Jose swells to hit Leeward Islands

    The latest NOAA advisory warns that swells generated by Hurricane Jose are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands later today.

    “These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,” the NOAA said.

    Maximum sustained winds remain near 120mph, with some strengthening possible during the next day or so.

    The storm is located about 600 miles east-southeast of the northern Leewards, and is hurtling through the Atlantic at 18mph. It is on track to reach the islands by Friday night and Saturday.

    After that, the hurricane is expected to move northwestward and then northward into the Atlantic.

    11pm: Category 3 Jose 'maintaining strength' as it follows Irma.

    The latest NOAA public advisory said the Category 3 Hurricane was “maintaining its strength” as the storm follows a similar path to Irma.

    A Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla has now been issued by the Antigua government in addition to an earlier Hurricane Watch status.

    Antigua and Barbuda – which was struck by Irma on Wednesday evening with the nation’s prime minister describing island announcing the island had been left "almost uninhabitable" by the Hurricane.

    The eye of Hurricane Jose is around 635miles (1020km) from the Leeward Islands.

    Anguilla, Montserrat, St Kitts, Nevis, Saba and St Eustatius are also under Tropical Storm Watch.

    The NHC public advisory said: “At 11pm AST (3am UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 53.9 West. Jose is moving toward the west near 18mph (30 kmph).

    “A slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Jose is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday.

    “Maximum sustained winds remain near 120mph (195 kmph) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

    “Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so.

    “Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35miles (55km) from the centre and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115miles (185 km).

    “The estimated minimum central pressure is 966mb (28.53inches).”

    8.00pm: NOAA National Hurricane Center publishes it 8pm public advisory

    The advisory says the eye of Hurricane Jose was moving west-northwest as the storm follows a similar path to Irma.

    A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Antigua and Barbuda – which was struck by Irma on Wednesday evening.

    Meanwhile, Anguilla, Montserrat, St Kitts, Nevis, Saba and St Eustatius are under Tropical Storm Watch.

    Jose is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday and the NOAA warns that “some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so”.

    5.45pm: Jose nearing Caribbean

    Hurricane Jose, according to the latest alert, is now 590 miles east of the Caribbean’s Lesser Antilles islands.

    5.25pm: Detailed warnings given by NHC

    The NHC has issued detailed warnings for the Caribbean as Jose approaches.

    Hurricane Watch is now in effect for Antigua and Barbuda.

    Storm Surge Watches are now in effect for Anguilla, Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis, Saba and St Eustatius just hours after the islands were hit by Hurricane Irma.

    Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 6 inches in the Leeward Islands from Dominica to Anguilla. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in the northern Leeward Islands from Antigua and Barbuda to Anguilla. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding.

    Swells generated by Jose are likely to affect portions of the Leeward Islands by Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

    4.40pm: Hurricane Jose upgraded to Category 3

    Hurricane Jose has now been upgraded by the National Hurricane Center to a Category 3 storm.

    Sustained winds are now as high as 120mph, the NHC said.

    4.20pm: Lifeline for western Caribbean and Florida?

    According to NHC Hurricane Jose may take a more northernly route than Hurricane Irma - but not before passing through an already devastated Barbuda.

    The NHC said: “Beyond that time, the global models suggest that an approaching mid-latitude trough will cause the ridge to retreat, causing Jose to turn more toward the northwest, and eventually toward the north.”

    3.45pm: Hurricane Jose nears Caribbean

    Hurricane Jose is now 815 miles east of the Caribbean's Lesser Antilles islands.

    2pm: Hurricane Jose is now a category 2 cyclone

    Hurricane Jose has breached the category 2 threshold as it speeds towards the devastated Leeward Islands.

    The cyclone is getting closer to the Lesser Antilles, and is now only 660 miles (1,060 km) away.

    Jose is travelling at a speed of 18 mph (30 km/h).

    The NHC said: “Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts.

    “Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Jose is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday.”

    1.10pm: Islands ravaged by Irma face new threat

    The tiny Caribbean islands of Barbuda and Antigua face being devastated once more by the arrival of Hurricane Jose over the weekend.

    Meteorologist Michael Ventrice tweeted: “Back to back Major Hurricane landfalls across the northern Leewards in just 1 week of time. You have got to be kidding me.”

    11am: Jose to become ‘major hurricane’ by Friday

    Hurricane Jose is now only 715 miles (1,150 km) east from the Lesser Antilles.

    Anticipating the impeding cyclone, the Government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watch for Antigua and Barbuda.

    Tropical Storm Watches have also been issued across Anguilla, Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis as well as St Saba and St Eustatius.

    Jose is now pushing maximums sustained winds of up to 90 mph (150 km/h) and is moving at a speed of 18 mph (30km/h).

    The NHC warns: “Jose is developing an eye. Convection remains very symmetric around the centre, and a well-defined mid-level eye has been evident in microwave imagery throughout the morning.

    “Outflow remains well established in all quadrants, despite the close proximity of Irma to the west, perhaps in part due to the small size of Jose.

    It added: “However, the overall trend of intensification is not likely to have ended, and Jose is still forecast to become a major hurricane in about 24 hours.”

    10.00am: Barbuda Jose update

    Scott Williams, chief meteorologist for WTXF-Fox 29 News in Philadelphia, has warned that Barbuda could be hit by Hurricane Jose on Friday night or Saturday morning.

    9.50am: Incredible satellite images show Jose tearing through Atlantic

    NASA has released satellite images of Hurricane Jose raging in the Atlantic.

    Though not as large as Irma, Jose is still an intimidating storm that has become more well-defined in the past 24 hours.

    9.15am: Jose's possible loop explained

    The Met Office’s Julian Heming has shed some light on the possible loop that has been predicted for Jose.

    “If we look into the medium-range period, once it gets past the Leewards and heads in the direction of Bermuda it’s being steered north west by the same weather system which will cause Irma to move north and turn towards Florida,” he explained.

    “The issue is how much Jose engages with that system further north.”

    Some models show Jose performing a loop around the Atlantic if it interacts with this system, however these are long-range forecasts which can not be relied upon.

    “This is very speculative, and we could find in a few days that the model forecasts could change again,” Mr Heming said. “It’s not something to push the panic button about.”

    It is possible that Jose will disengage from the system, “and what might happen is that Jose just then stops moving or becomes very slow moving in that area”.

    Alternatively, a high pressure area could build further north, “which could then cause Jose to move very erratically in a loop motion or a south-by-southwest motion”.

    Mr Heming explained: “Sea temperatures get cooler as you go further north, if the storm moves south-west it moves towards warmer waters which gives it the potential to strengthen.”

    8.50am: Barbuda could evacuate entire population if Jose hits

    The Prime Minister of two-island state Barbuda and Antigua has said that he will consider moving the entire population of Barbuda to Antigua if Hurricane Jose threatens the region.

    Barbuda has been flattened by Hurricane Irma, with 90 per cent of its buildings damaged and at least one person dead. Antigua escaped relatively unscathed.

    8.27am: Jose's track to be dictated by Irma

    Hurricane Jose’s future track will be “dictated by track and mid-latitude interaction” of Hurricane Irma, meteorologist Michael Ventrice has tweeted.



    Hurricane Jose satelitte imageNASA


    Hurricane Jose: Satellite images show the storm raging in the Atlantic
    7.35am: Forecasters worried that Jose could hit areas impacted by Irma

    As Hurricane Jose continues to race across the Atlantic, weather forecaster fear Jose could reach areas already devastated by Hurricane Irma.

    Meteorologist Rich Hoffman tweeted: “HURRICANE JOSE could impact the same areas as IRMA.”

    The NHC also advises that Hurricane Watches will likely be put in place for parts of the Leeward Islands later today.

    6.45am: Fears grow for 'unreachable' St Martin

    Hurricane Irma has left the Dutch part of St Martin “unreachable”, the Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has said, as Jose heads toward the island.

    "Alas, the island is not reachable at this point because of the huge damage to the airport and the harbor," Rutte told reporters.

    He confirmed that there have not yet been any reported deaths on the Dutch side of the island. At least eight people have been killed on the French side.

    Mr Rutte said that there were renewed fears about Hurricane Jose, which could make landfall over the weekend.

    6.30am: Jose could loop towards Florida

    Hurricane Jose could loop around the Atlantic and head directly towards Florida, new weather models show.

    Meteorologist James Spann tweeted a video and wrote: “00Z Euro (ECMWF) continues to show a dangerous situation for the Atlantic coasts of FL/GA/SC."


    Another layer of complexity, the future track of Hurricane #Jose will be dictated by track & mid-latitude interaction of M. Hurricane #Irma


    5.30am: Jose to turn north earlier than Irma

    Channel 3 meteorologist David Karnes has tweeted a video showing how Jose will move towards the US, but will peter out before it can make landfall there.

    He tweeted: “[Jose is] following a similar path as Irma, but it will turn north earlier, and not be as strong.”


    5.00am: Jose ‘a little stronger’

    The NOAA has released a new advisory at 5am confirming that Jose is “a little stronger”.

    The storm now has maximum sustained winds near 90mph and is travelling at 18mph west-north-west.

    “Further strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours.

    “After that time, increasing northerly shear associated with the outflow of Hurricane Irma should inhibit further intensification and subsequently, cause the cyclone to begin weakening.”

    4.50am: Jose hurtling towards Caribbean

    The latest NOAA advisory at 11pm AST placed Jose around 925 miles east of the lesser Antilles.

    It is travelling west-northwest near 17mph, and is expected to continue on this path for the next two days, during which some strengthening is forecast.

    If forecasts show a further shift westward, then tropical storm or hurricane warnings could be required for the Leeward Islands today.

    Tropical storm force winds are forecast to reach the islands on Friday morning, and Puerto Rico by Saturday 8am.

    The Dominican Republic will experience strong winds from Saturday 8pm. The island is currently bearing down for Hurricane Irma, which is on track to arrive there today.



    Hurricane Jose path: Latest NOAA mapNOAA
    Hurricane Jose path: Latest NOAA map


    Hurricane Jose path: Estimated wind timesNOAA
    Hurricane Jose path: Estimated tropical storm wind arrival times
    The NOAA warn: “Jose is likely to continue developing during the next day or two while the vertical shear is low, the SSTs are around 29C, and the mid-level humidity is moist.


    Meteorologist Ryan Maue said that Jose could loop towards the US if steering currents collapse.

    “Hurricane Jose will need to be watched closely next week as steering currents collapse & storm may loop a la Jeanne [2004],” he tweeted.

    In two to three days, Hurricane Irma will begin to impinge on Jose.

    “The outflow from large, strong hurricane Irma to Jose's west should start inducing more shear, inducing a steady weakening by days four and five,” the NOAA explained.


    http://www.express.co.uk/news/weathe...atest-NHC-news
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  22. #22
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    Sorry about the format of the previous post, I tried cleaning it up as best as I could.

    Sounds like Jose will soon be a Cat 5 Hurricane.
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  23. #23
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    Hurricane JOSE
    As of 00:00 UTC Sep 10, 2017:

    Location: 19.4°N 62.9°W
    Maximum Winds: 120 kt Gusts: N/A
    Minimum Central Pressure: 946 mb
    Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
    Radius of Circulation: 160 NM
    Radius of Maximum Wind: 10 NM
    Eye Diameter: N/A

    64 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  24. #24
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    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  25. #25
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    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  26. #26
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    Hurricane Jose

    11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 10
    Location: 21.7°N 65.8°W
    Moving: NW at 16 mph
    Min pressure: 944 mb
    Max sustained: 130 mph

    JOSE MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES MOVING STEADILY NORTHWEST WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...

    More: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...nd120#contents

  27. #27
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    Some say Jose may end up off the North East Coast where we usually have "Nor Easter's" (Same place as Hurricane Sandy ended up). Hope Jose moves to cold water and dissipates.
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  28. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Sleeping Cobra View Post
    Some say Jose may end up off the North East Coast where we usually have "Nor Easter's" (Same place as Hurricane Sandy ended up). Hope Jose moves to cold water and dissipates.
    I saw a graphic picture that showed that track

  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sleeping Cobra View Post
    Some say Jose may end up off the North East Coast where we usually have "Nor Easter's" (Same place as Hurricane Sandy ended up). Hope Jose moves to cold water and dissipates.
    I believe that Packy's little buddy has referenced and made comparisons to Sandy a few days ago.
    "...Cry 'Havoc' and let slip the cats of war..."
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  30. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Profit of Doom View Post
    I believe that Packy's little buddy has referenced and made comparisons to Sandy a few days ago.
    early last week you can read it in the Hurricane Irma woo thread.
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  31. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sleeping Cobra View Post
    Hope Jose moves to cold water and dissipates.
    Me too! I don't know how the hurricane can last with the colder waters here.

    This is a link to the water temps in the central east coast. It doesn't seem warm enough to feed a hurricane. https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/catl.html
    G.K. Chesterton, “It’s the first effect of not believing in God that you lose your common sense.”

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  32. #32
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    Predicted to stall out this week, hope they're correct.
    https://weather.com/storms/hurricane...ecast-atlantic

    Hurricane Jose to Stall in the Atlantic This Week; Long-Term Future Path is Uncertain


    Story Highlights
    Jose will stall out over the open Atlantic Ocean well south of Bermuda in the week ahead.

    Jose's long-term future path is uncertain, but it will be monitored for many days to come.

    High surf and rip currents will impact the U.S. East Coast and northeast Caribbean Islands.

    Hurricane Jose will make a looping path in the western Atlantic Ocean this week, generating high surf and rip currents that will affect parts of the U.S. East Coast and the northeast Caribbean.


    Jose is currently located about 250 miles north of the northern Leeward Islands and is moving northwest.

    A NOAA buoy located near Jose reported a wind gust to 110 mph early Sunday morning.



    By midweek, steering winds should collapse, and Jose will stall out for some time between Bermuda, the Bahamas and Puerto Rico.

    Swells generated by Jose and Irma will continue to affect the U.S. East Coast, leading to dangerous rip current conditions this week.



    The future path of Jose after it makes its stalling loop in the western Atlantic remains uncertain, but we will continue to monitor it for any potential U.S. impact.

    Check back with weather.com for updates in the days ahead for the latest details on Jose.
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  33. #33
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    Here is the new GFS run for Jose

    Remember to hit the play button

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...pos=0&ypos=600

  34. #34
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    Yeah but look at hour 228. Cape cod is going to get pummeled on the 20th.

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    יְשׁוּעָה
    I am in competition with no one. I have no desire to play the game of being better than anyone. I am simply trying harder to be a better person than I was yesterday.
    TRUTH

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    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

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  37. #37
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    There was a run for Irma that showed one storm after the other jumping off Africa like kids into a pool. I can't find it now. This one has Jose scraping the coast: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...60000610351562

    https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/jo...t-coast-threat

    Even as Tropical Storm Irma continues to wallop parts of the Southeast U.S. (see our Sunday night post on Irma), the region will also need to keep an eye on Hurricane Jose over the next few days. Hurricane Jose is now wandering several hundred miles to the north of the Leeward Islands, after brushing them on Saturday as a high-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds. Jose will spend the next four days performing a slow clockwise loop without affecting any land areas. The rather odd forecast track is the result of a mid-level high to the east of Jose which will build south of Jose in 24 hours, then west of Jose in about 48 hours, and then north of Jose between days 3 and 4. When Jose completes this loop late this week, it will be close to the north-central Bahamas, which are now in the NHC 5-day cone of uncertainty. The hurricane could threaten the U.S. and Canada next week.

    Intensity forecast for Jose

    Jose is under high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and this high shear has degraded the storm significantly over the past three days, leaving it a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds at 11 am EDT Monday. Moderate to high wind shear, combined with dry air and a passage over its own cold wake in the ocean, will likely continue to weaken Jose through Wednesday, despite very warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 29.5°C (85°F.) A strong ridge of high pressure will build in to the north of Jose by Thursday, forcing the hurricane to move west-northwest towards the U.S. At that time, shear may relax enough to allow Jose to intensify, and NHC is going with a strengthening trend late in the week, making the storm a high-end Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds by Saturday.

    Jose forecast

    Figure 1. The 20 track forecasts for Jose from the 0Z Monday, September 11, 2017 GFS model ensemble forecast. One quarter of the solutions resulted in an eventual landfall in the U.S., and another quarter in Canada. Image credit: CFAN.

    Jose forecast

    Figure 3. The 0Z September 11, 2017, track forecast by the operational European model for Jose (red line, adjusted by CFAN using a proprietary technique that accounts for storm movement since 0Z Monday), along with the track of the average of the 50 members of the European model ensemble (heavy black line), and the track forecasts from the “high probability cluster” (grey lines)—the five European model ensemble members that have performed best with Jose thus far. Recurvate out to sea or a landfall in New England or Canada were the preferred solutions. Image credit: CFAN.

    The looping path Jose is expected to take this week is the sort of behavior that our computer models don’t predict with a high degree of accuracy, and the 5-day error in the latest track forecast is likely to be higher than average. While the 0Z Monday runs of the GFS and European model (and their ensembles) showed only a limited threat to the U.S. next week, the runs 12 hours previous to that showed a considerable threat. Until Jose is farther along on its loop, the models are likely to have large errors, and we should not take too much comfort (or indulge in too much angst) over a particular set of model runs. The potential for a dangerous storm affecting The Bahamas late this week and/or the U.S. early next week is there, as shown by the 0Z Monday run of the UKMET model, which predicted that Jose would hit the eastern Bahamas on Friday, and move west-northwest through The Bahamas towards Florida over the weekend. The 6Z Monday run of the HWRF model predicted that Jose would bring tropical storm-force winds to the north-central Bahamas on Friday, and the 6Z Monday run of the GFS model predicted a landfall along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast on Tuesday. As Jose approaches the U.S. this weekend, it is uncertain if the hurricane will experience a steering influence from the remnants of Hurricane Irma, which may still be lingering over the Eastern U.S., and it’s too soon to know what other features will be in play to help shape Jose’s course over the 6- to 10-day period. It is certainly possible that Jose will recurve out to sea without affecting any land areas. Can you pray, "Amen to that" with me? Do it frequently and fervently this week!

    We’ll have much more on Irma in a post later today.

    Bob Henson contributed to this post.
    "During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." George Orwell

  38. #38
    Sitting in Buxton NC now, right on the water and the surf is pounding like mad, from an onshore northeast fetch that has been unrelenting since we got here on Saturday. Irma has something to do with that and with Jose dancing around out there it's not going to get any calmer. I'm hoping this damn thing rains itself out and goes away
    A long national nightmare has ended. Our Republic STILL stands!! The Adults are back in the building. Now we take our Country back, no matter how many special snowflakes have to be melted down to do it. President Trump, you've got the ball. Lets ROCK!!

  39. #39
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    Still 7-9 day's away for the EC & NE, lots can happen. But i don't like what the GFS is showing.

  40. #40
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    Another opinion on Jose from Bix Weir.

    FWIW.

    Irma's Bad but Here Comes JOSE!!! (Bix Weir)
    https://youtu.be/3wHSYqmYeeA
    "Talking is easy and everyone is wise after the event."

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