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WEATHER Official Hurricane Irma Thread- Woo Free
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  1. #41
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    I have always been fascinated by weather,especially strong hurricanes. One of the metrics I look at is the millibar pressure. I honk Ilma was the lowest with 882 mb. Anytime it gets close to 900 I pay close attention to. I think Irma right now is around 969mb.

    Another interesting thing is how the different water temperatures affect storms.

    This one for sure deserves watching.
    "Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other."
    -John Adams, America’s Second President

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dennis Olson View Post
    Keep all woo off this thread, including but not limited to: talking cats, weather control, MKUltra, HAARP, aliens, conspiracy theories of any and all kinds, and chemtrails.

    I mean it. I'll boot anyone off this thread who post that kind of thing.
    Gonna be a short thread...

    Deo adjuvante non timendum - With God Helping, Nothing is to be Feared

    "You are like a pit-bull..." - Dennis Olson

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by tanstaafl View Post
    Not too many post-hurricane storm paths through the Midwest over the last 164 years (1851-2015), but I was surprised to see that at some point in the past there was a post-hurricane storm path that actually tracked into Hudson Bay. This link (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images..._allstorms.jpg) saves to a VERY large graphic (65.9 MB) which gives you a fighting chance at following the path of a particular hurricane (no hurricane names, though). Here's the graphic in a much smaller size showing that whatever else hurricanes do they virtually NEVER track in a straight line, so taking the current path of Irma, projecting it in a straight line, then claiming it's definitely going into the Gulf is more an exercise in fantasy than anything remotely related to science.
    Damn, that's a lot of spaghetti.
    "...Cry 'Havoc' and let slip the cats of war..."
    Razor sharpening while you wait - Occam
    If it works, it doesn't have enough features. - Windows 10 design philosophy.
    Forget the beer, I'm just here for the doom!
    Humans, just a tool for amino acids to make Swiss watches.

  4. #44
    Guys,

    Have been thinking and praying about Hurricane Irma.

    This could turn into a ferocious hurricane that makes Hurricane Harvey pale in comparison.

    Prayers to have Hurricane Irma continue to go to the south/southwest or diminish in intensity are needed. Do not have a good feeling about this.

    God help us.

    Texican....
    An American Christina....
    Live Free and Die Free....

  5. #45
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    Thanks for that flood insurance update summerthyme. Kinda explains maybe why my homeowners agent hasn't returned my email. I'm here is Cape Coral watching Irma with interest. It's kinda funny I just started kayaking at the first of August, have two with life jackets and stuff. After seeing the people in Houston area I think I am glad I have those. Just in case. But actually if I am smart about the hurricane situation I will be gone from here if a hit looks like it will happen.

    My home is 12' above sea level and a direct hit Cat 2 would cause flooding here.

    Thanks goodness I got a pickup, even being a short bed Ford Sport Tac it will still be able to haul important stuff out of dodge.

    And thank goodness for this thread and board...

  6. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by Virtualco View Post
    I just started kayaking at the first of August, have two with life jackets and stuff. After seeing the people in Houston area I think I am glad I have those. Just in case.
    While you're prepping, collect a couple lengths of PVC pipe or an equivalent, and some long bungees, so you can make a double-hull out of your two kayaks with a couple feet distance between them. Then you've got something that won't be tippy, can carry two people or you and a good deal of gear in the second boat or strapped on the outrigger pipes. Just in case.

  7. #47
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    thanks Warm Wisconsin, your first post on this thread would make a great sticky on a general Hurricane prep thread on Main.
    It has every hurricane weather resource one can imagine. Add in some great checklists and procedures and we would have a great sticky thread.
    People who go to TB2K everyday could have all the weather info they need with one click.
    "I never saw a wild thing sorry for itself. A small bird will drop frozen dead from a bough without ever having felt sorry for itself." -DH Lawrence
    People are crazy and times are strange
    I'm locked in tight, I'm out of range
    I used to care, but things have changed

  8. #48
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    Posted by Joe Bastardi, right now projected to go over Bahamas and hit at border of S.C and N.C.

    Showing 884 pressure, that's pretty low.
    Attached Images
    ...Rubbin' is Racin'......

  9. #49
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    Here's a prediction I'll stick my neck out on...

    With Harvey floods displacing homeowners and water and fuel shortages, etc. so fresh in everyone's mind,
    when it dawns on east coast people that Irma could be playing in a town near them soon, many more are
    gonna prep much bigger and much sooner than in the past. Could well be whole lot more than ever before.

    That alone has the potential of becoming a disruption crisis unto itself, as it unleashes a contagious panic
    prepping stampede with inevitable shortages.

    If from past experiences you'd been safe not getting serious about topping off your hurricane supplies till
    3-4 days out when track better known, you might want to re-think that and get-r-done now. The pickings
    could be really thin and unusually hectic then, with tons more players, if you dare to wait & see this time.

    Might turn out that my favorite saying could be especially appropriate next week...

    Panic Early, Beat the Rush!

    - Shane
    Last edited by shane; 09-03-2017 at 04:50 PM.

    THE GOOD NEWS ABOUT NUCLEAR DESTRUCTION!
    WHAT TO DO IF A NUCLEAR DISASTER IS IMMINENT!
    When An ill Wind Blows From Afar! (Overseas Fallout)

    "A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them;
    the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences."
    - Proverbs 22:3

  10. #50
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    from S2K
    Sun Sep 03, 2017 4:15 pm
    Irma 's size is growing . . .
    From 5 PM Advisory:

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
    (220 km).


    At 11 AM, those distances were 25 and 80 miles, respectively.
    from NHC

    000
    WTNT31 KNHC 032050
    TCPAT1

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 18
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
    500 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017

    ...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
    ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO IRMA...


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...17.6N 49.8W
    ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
    islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and
    Nevis.

    The government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Watch for
    the islands of Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten.

    The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for St.
    Martin and Saint Barthelemy.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
    * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
    * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
    * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

    Interests in the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the British and
    U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of
    Irma. Additional Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches may be
    required for portions of this area on Monday.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
    near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 49.8 West. Irma is moving toward
    the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-southwestward
    motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected through
    Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Irma is
    forecast to approach the northern Leeward Islands late Tuesday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
    Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the
    next 48 hours.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
    (220 km).

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
    Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late
    Tuesday.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Brown
    Nana to two "little bits", one not-so-little "little bit" and one big "little bit" now several inches taller than me

  11. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by Ragnarok View Post
    Gonna be a short thread...

    Note; he said nothing about talking dogs.... I sense a bias here.

    Ok, no more joking, back to Irma.

  12. #52
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    Not much worried Irma will slap us here but she could cause crop damage affecting can goods price and quantity. Started the annual pre-winter stock up schtick early.
    Complete daily menu for minimum of 6 months, with a stash-o-cash backing another 6 months or more if needed. Will finish up this week.
    Will be watching store shelves and prices for hints. Bad feelings this time. Spring of 2018 has bothered me for a long time. Will be happy to be wrong.
    A man never discloses his own character so clearly as when he describes another's.

    Have you ever listened to someone and wondered,,,,,,,,
    "Who ties your shoes for you??"

  13. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by Racing22 View Post
    Posted by Joe Bastardi, right now projected to go over Bahamas and hit at border of S.C and N.C.

    Showing 884 pressure, that's pretty low.
    I really have not seen any professional forecaster other than Bastardi calling the point of land fall yet. We shall see if he jumped the gun.
    But not likely to die free

  14. #54
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    deleted
    Last edited by shane; 09-03-2017 at 05:26 PM.

    THE GOOD NEWS ABOUT NUCLEAR DESTRUCTION!
    WHAT TO DO IF A NUCLEAR DISASTER IS IMMINENT!
    When An ill Wind Blows From Afar! (Overseas Fallout)

    "A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them;
    the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences."
    - Proverbs 22:3

  15. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by BornFree View Post
    I really have not seen any professional forecaster other than Bastardi calling the point of land fall yet. We shall see if he jumped the gun.
    He have a good track record prediction wise?
    Patriot Guard rider
    www.patriotguard.org

  16. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by Virtualco View Post
    Thanks for that flood insurance update summerthyme. Kinda explains maybe why my homeowners agent hasn't returned my email.
    I have worked for several major insurance carriers. I remember when Hurricane Andrew and Hurricane Hugo hit (both really bad storms) the insurance carrier I worked for stopped writing any new business for that area during the days leading up to the storm.

    Once the meteorologists were able to narrow down a projected path for the storm, the insurance companies refused to write any more new policies for people in that area. So if you lived in the area they would not sell you a policy to insure your home or your car.

    If anyone is thinking of writing new insurance, get it now because you may not be able to get it in a few more days if you are in the projected path of this storm. This only pertains to insurance that protects physical property.

    If you already have a policy and you just want to update it with new items, etc. I am not sure if this applies to you. (Although, that may be why your agent hasn't replied to your email, Virtualco.)

  17. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by BornFree View Post
    I really have not seen any professional forecaster other than Bastardi calling the point of land fall yet. We shall see if he jumped the gun.
    The way I read his tweets he has not 'called it' yet.
    He's still talking plenty about where it could wander off to.

    Go look/see at them yourself here...
    https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

    - Shane

    THE GOOD NEWS ABOUT NUCLEAR DESTRUCTION!
    WHAT TO DO IF A NUCLEAR DISASTER IS IMMINENT!
    When An ill Wind Blows From Afar! (Overseas Fallout)

    "A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them;
    the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences."
    - Proverbs 22:3

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Firebird View Post
    He have a good track record prediction wise?
    Was best & earliest for Harvey strength and tracks, IMO.

    Also, wrote back in May a report how this hurricane season would end drought of hurricanes.
    It's linked down in his twitter feed someplace not too deep.

    Also, runs https://www.weatherbell.com/

    Also, lot of his interviews here...

    https://www.youtube.com/results?sear...y=joe+bastardi

    And, I like that he goes after the Climate Change deceivers.

    - Shane

    THE GOOD NEWS ABOUT NUCLEAR DESTRUCTION!
    WHAT TO DO IF A NUCLEAR DISASTER IS IMMINENT!
    When An ill Wind Blows From Afar! (Overseas Fallout)

    "A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them;
    the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences."
    - Proverbs 22:3

  19. #59
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    Ryan Maue‏Verified account
    @RyanMaue
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    Last 9 ECMWF forecasts for Hurricane #Irma
    It's spread like ensemble spaghetti exemplifying run-to-run uncertainty.


    End of Days - Storm Clouds Gathering

    https://www.facebook.com/groups/1118736691482459/

  20. #60
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    End of Days - Storm Clouds Gathering

    https://www.facebook.com/groups/1118736691482459/

  21. #61
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    Michael Ventrice‏Verified account
    @MJVentrice
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    These are the highest windspeed forecasts I've ever seen in my 10 yrs of Atlantic hurricane forecasting. #Irma is another retiree candidate.


    End of Days - Storm Clouds Gathering

    https://www.facebook.com/groups/1118736691482459/

  22. #62
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    Thanks Krayola, I will call Tuesday on flood insurance. Could be they are extremely busy also.

    Neat tip bw! That could tend to make a stable set-up.

  23. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by ontheright View Post
    So...

    Half of the continental US is at risk...
    Deo adjuvante non timendum - With God Helping, Nothing is to be Feared

    "You are like a pit-bull..." - Dennis Olson

  24. #64
    Sooo. We are driving to Athens, GA next Saturday to see my mom, in an Alzheimer's assisted living home.... She's getting bad, the trip has been planned for a month. I live in Indiana.

    Will this Irma cause us trouble if it hits NC or near there???
    Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not to your own understanding,
    acknowledge Him in all your ways and He will direct your path.

  25. #65
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    This is my first post on this thread. I just couldn't mentally handle another disaster. God I hope it doesn't come this way, but I wouldn't wish dealing with this on anyone else. My late ex wife used to rebuke these storms in the name of Jesus. It worked most of the time until she passed away. Lets do the same.

  26. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2x2 View Post
    Not much worried Irma will slap us here but she could cause crop damage affecting can goods price and quantity. Started the annual pre-winter stock up schtick early.
    Complete daily menu for minimum of 6 months, with a stash-o-cash backing another 6 months or more if needed. Will finish up this week.
    Will be watching store shelves and prices for hints. Bad feelings this time. Spring of 2018 has bothered me for a long time. Will be happy to be wrong.
    Complete daily menu, sounds well organized.
    Is this something you could share, perhaps in the prep rooms?
    "...Cry 'Havoc' and let slip the cats of war..."
    Razor sharpening while you wait - Occam
    If it works, it doesn't have enough features. - Windows 10 design philosophy.
    Forget the beer, I'm just here for the doom!
    Humans, just a tool for amino acids to make Swiss watches.

  27. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ragnarok View Post
    So...

    Half of the continental US is at risk...
    This was potential wind speeds for all the spaghetti models

    End of Days - Storm Clouds Gathering

    https://www.facebook.com/groups/1118736691482459/

  28. #68
    Quote Originally Posted by psychgirl View Post
    Sooo. We are driving to Athens, GA next Saturday to see my mom, in an Alzheimer's assisted living home.... She's getting bad, the trip has been planned for a month. I live in Indiana.

    Will this Irma cause us trouble if it hits NC or near there???
    Athens is fairly inland. If it hits in NC Athens will be on the good side of the storm as far as winds go. Rain could be a different story. I wouldn't change my plans if I were you.

  29. #69
    Quote Originally Posted by Virtualco View Post
    Thanks Krayola, I will call Tuesday on flood insurance. Could be they are extremely busy also.

    Neat tip bw! That could tend to make a stable set-up.
    Just remember, flood insurance- if it's available in your area, and it should be given how close to sea level you are- will NOT cover you for Irma, unless it stalls out to sea for 3 weeks or so... there is generally a 30 day waiting period for flood insurance to take effect. I suspect that's because otherwise, people wouldn't bother having it until 3 days before a hurricane hits, and then they'd cancel just as soon as possible- until the next one shows up! Human nature... but DUMB human nature.

    Summerthyme

  30. #70
    Quote Originally Posted by Beach View Post
    Athens is fairly inland. If it hits in NC Athens will be on the good side of the storm as far as winds go. Rain could be a different story. I wouldn't change my plans if I were you.
    Thank you!
    Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not to your own understanding,
    acknowledge Him in all your ways and He will direct your path.

  31. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ragnarok View Post
    So...

    Half of the continental US is at risk...
    The EURO ensemble had added the Gulf (as far over to western MS) back into the forecast late last night or early this morning; I saw it mentioned around 5 AM.

    At that time, the GFS had not, don't know if they have now or not.
    Nana to two "little bits", one not-so-little "little bit" and one big "little bit" now several inches taller than me

  32. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lilbitsnana View Post
    The EURO ensemble had added the Gulf (as far over to western MS) back into the forecast late last night or early this morning; I saw it mentioned around 5 AM.

    At that time, the GFS had not, don't know if they have now or not.

    Just looked and yes, the GFS has added it back into the mix.


    http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guida...NS.png?8695221


    http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guida...S.png?86041613


    ETA: still LOTS of time for things to change
    Nana to two "little bits", one not-so-little "little bit" and one big "little bit" now several inches taller than me

  33. #73
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    Track Hurricane Irma‏ @Track_Irma 3m3 minutes ago
    More
    Official #Irma 8PM Update: Maintaining 115 mph winds. Pressure is down to 959 mb due to recon data. Still moving W 14 mph #hurricane

    End of Days - Storm Clouds Gathering

    https://www.facebook.com/groups/1118736691482459/

  34. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lilbitsnana View Post
    Anything from EUR yet ? Been looking but have seen nada

    End of Days - Storm Clouds Gathering

    https://www.facebook.com/groups/1118736691482459/

  35. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lilbitsnana View Post
    The EURO ensemble had added the Gulf (as far over to western MS) back into the forecast late last night or early this morning; I saw it mentioned around 5 AM.

    At that time, the GFS had not, don't know if they have now or not.
    Quote Originally Posted by Lilbitsnana
    Just looked and yes, the GFS has added it back into the mix.


    http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guida...NS.png?8695221




    http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guida...S.png?86041613


    ETA: still LOTS of time for things to change


    Quote Originally Posted by ontheright View Post
    Anything from EUR yet ? Been looking but have seen nada
    the top link was the EURO ensemble, the bottom link was GFS.


    you can see them side by side at this link:

    http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guida...html?tcid=AL11

    http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guida...html?tcid=AL11

    ETA: at link above, there are several tabs that can be clicked to see various data and maps.
    Last edited by Lilbitsnana; 09-03-2017 at 07:08 PM.
    Nana to two "little bits", one not-so-little "little bit" and one big "little bit" now several inches taller than me

  36. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by Firebird View Post
    I have a motorcycle trip planned for next weekend to the Smoky Mountains from Florida, this storm bears a close watch.
    Going to the dragon are you? Enjoy and be safe...
    יְשׁוּעָה
    I am in competition with no one. I have no desire to play the game of being better than anyone. I am simply trying harder to be a better person than I was yesterday.
    TRUTH

  37. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by psychgirl View Post
    Will this Irma cause us trouble if it hits NC or near there???
    It's too soon to tell, Psychgirl. Suggestion: proceed as if you are still going on the trip, pack and so on, but don't make a firm decision until Friday when the models will be more accurate. You might be able to go or you might decide that now is not the best time.

    So sorry to hear about your mom! That must be rough!

  38. #78
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    Here is a couple of maps from the GFS 18Z of hour 162 and 204. The models have been pushing the storm sightly south and further west then previous runs. It's looking like the Northern Antilles will get hit with PR getting some piece of Irma. It's getting clearer that the Bahamas chain could get nailed with a strengthening Irma. From that point, it's way beyond certain from the Keys to NC/VA or, OTS. I suspect the NE will most likely not get the fury of Irma. But even that is way beyond ATM.
    Attached Images

  39. #79
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    Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi 3h3 hours ago

    I will be on @jessebwatters tonight at 8 pm, most likely in the B block which I think is 8:15

    THE GOOD NEWS ABOUT NUCLEAR DESTRUCTION!
    WHAT TO DO IF A NUCLEAR DISASTER IS IMMINENT!
    When An ill Wind Blows From Afar! (Overseas Fallout)

    "A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them;
    the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences."
    - Proverbs 22:3

  40. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by medic38572 View Post
    Going to the dragon are you? Enjoy and be safe...
    Most definitely!
    Patriot Guard rider
    www.patriotguard.org

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