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ECON My Father-in-Law Will Never Learn to Code
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  1. #1

    My Father-in-Law Will Never Learn to Code

    Spotted this this morning out at LinkedIn. A look at the growing automation trend hitting just about every part of business. We only need so many coders and robot wranglers, so what happens to everybody else? Do we jam our fingers in our ears and shriek LA LA LA FREE MARKET LA LA or do we fix the real problem?

    Fair use cited for non-commercial purposes so on and so forth.

    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/death...1xHRdFbDCkyTQ1

    My Father-In-Law Won't Become a Coder, No Matter What Economists Say

    Dustin McKissen
    LinkedIn Top Voice - CNBC Contributor - Consultant & Strategist

    For more than 20 years, my father-in-law has sold food to mostly small, independent, family-owned restaurants. He works for one of the world’s largest food service companies, and his is the type of job that is increasingly rare: It does not require a college degree, but has afforded him a middle-class life.

    My father-in-law is good at his job. He works incredibly hard, he’s a friendly guy, and he cares about the customers he serves.

    However, that doesn’t mean his job is secure. Over the past few years, his company has systematically decreased the number of salespeople it employs and has required those same salespeople to encourage their customers to place orders online.

    My father-in-law will probably be retired before his company eliminates salespeople altogether.

    However, what will become of his remaining colleagues?

    Traditional economic theory says that the gains from technology will create as many or more jobs than the number destroyed, and statistically speaking, people like my father-in-law will be fine. The wonders of the free market and creative destruction will keep middle-aged dislocated salespeople from going hungry. That’s what every economics textbook says.

    But speaking statistically and speaking realistically are two different things.

    Once his company transitions completely to online sales, what are the options for someone like my father-in-law?

    Be a salesperson somewhere else? Every other company that could potentially hire my father-in-law is also trying to convert customers to online sales.

    Get retrained for another job? Aid for retraining is restricted to employees who lose jobs because of trade, not technology. And, as research has shown, retraining is far from a foolproof solution.

    Learn to be a coder? Though there isn’t any data on this, the market for middle-aged, entry-level coders is probably weak.

    In other words, the theory of creative destruction works when you’re talking about specific companies or industries falling by the wayside because a better alternative has come along. The elimination of the typewriter wasn’t an economic disaster, because typewriters gave way to a better alternative that created even more jobs. More people make their living from the production of computers than ever made their living from the production of typewriters.

    However, the theory of creative destruction isn’t as applicable when one of the things being destroyed is the very idea of human labor.

    If economic theories like creative destruction do not provide an answer, maybe politics can.

    I know I lost some of you right there.

    “It’s the free market,” you say. “It will solve its own problems!” That’s easy to say when the only way you’ve ever made a living hasn’t disappeared. Just like there are no atheists in a foxhole, there are very few Ayn Rand followers in an unemployment line. And before you have any condescending ideas about the reading habits of people who end up in unemployment lines, it’s worth remembering that bankers and CEOs also tend to misplace their copy of Atlas Shrugged whenever they need bailed out.

    In fact, in the face of massive job loss, even the world’s most powerful Ayn Rand fan, current Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, can stop caring about what the free market wants.

    But both the left and the right offer about as many helpful ideas of how to deal with the changing nature of human labor as an economics textbook does.

    A tax cut from the right or an increase in the minimum wage from the left does nothing for a middle-aged, middle-class worker whose skill set (and human touch) has been permanently replaced by yet another interaction with a screen. That’s one reason why politics has gotten so awful. Neither the left nor the right has any new ideas for new problems, so all they do is turn up the volume on old ideas.

    So, what can be done for someone like my father-in-law and the millions of other people who will be permanently displaced by technology?

    We need to begin by acknowledging the fact that we have to rethink the relationship between human beings, work, and the economy. That doesn’t mean we need to adopt socialism or communism. What it means is that we need to accept the idea that we need to find a new “ism” that works in a world that none of the thinkers who came up with the old “isms” could have imagined.

    Developing a new “ism” should also not be viewed as a criticism of capitalism. The parts of the world that operated under some variation of capitalism have fared better, even if the gains weren’t evenly distributed. People lived longer, healthier, and more educated lives. A big reason why all of that happened is because capitalism allows people to pursue their full potential through work. If technology has evolved to the point where there aren’t enough avenues for people to do that, the way we organize our society needs to evolve, too.

    Letting all we’ve achieved wither away because we can’t think of a new idea would be a tragedy. It would be a little like allowing a family to fall apart just because the kids grew up.

    Except rather than a lifetime of figuring out where to spend Thanksgiving, you get to experience the real life Hunger Games (where no one looks like Katniss or Gale—or even Peeta).

    It is possible to create a society that can adapt to the changes ahead.

    But first we need to recognize that our old ideas aren’t a solution, and that a middle-class, middle-aged, technologically displaced worker won’t be helped by a tax cut or a higher minimum wage.

    Or a few coding lessons.

    Dustin McKissen is the founder of McKissen + Company, and was recently named one of LinkedIn's "Top Voices on Management and Culture". He is also a columnist on Inc.com, and a contributor for CNBC.

  2. #2
    This is a common topic around my home.

    What do people do to secure a future for themselves.

    Several old folks were sitting around and we got to talking about it and some remembered the old get a degree or take a hourly job with a company, work 40 years, retire. That was what the sage advice was for young folk at a certain point.

    Now ya hear that most folk change jobs a lot more than that over a working lifetime.

    Now ya hear and see various TECH replacing older grunt workers.

    I know a lot of people who could make a good living for their family under the older paradigms, but this new high tech world is not something that everyone, not even young telephone / computer using folk can make a living doing. Not everyone can learn to write code, or other such work.

    A lot of the better ones that will never be high tech people seem to try to get jobs working for the electric coop or /shudder, some even to into LEO fields and such.

    Well while we were solving the worlds problems over coffee, a old farmer I know came in and sat down.

    After a while he said that those who would do the work of shoveling Shit would always be able to make money cause people would pay to not have to do that.

    Now the first thing ya might think of is cleaning out stables or chicken coops, but then think about the bigger picture

    Plumbers. That is something that really cannot be automated and will always need the man willing to put on cloths and get nasty to keep things working.

    Expand that to every other job that has to have hands on and is something that most folk not only have never learned to do, but think is beneath them or is to nasty.

    While not for everyone, the shit shoveler's of the world will always be able to find work if any work is to be had at all.


    I remember reading about those super fancy bunkers for SHTF that the "rich" are building.
    Remember reading comments about the janitor will be the one with the greatest power in the world when they reach their bolt holes cause they are not gonna change the tp, mop the floors / change the light bulbs and 100 other things.

    I know what I advise smart young folk to do. Become one of those invisible cogs in the non tech needs and siphon money off those with more money than sense. When one field folds up those who move into those new jobs that pay good money will still be hiring the shit shoveler types. The type of mess may sort of change over time, but there will always be those who don't want to do it who will hire and pay well to have others do it.
    Dosadi

    III


    My family & clan are my country.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Dosadi View Post
    While not for everyone, the shit shoveler's of the world will always be able to find work if any work is to be had at all.
    At least until replaced with a vacuum hose and a pressure washer. And even then, how many "shit shovelers" do you really think an economy can actually accommodate? More or less than will be displaced by the upcoming technological shift? If you're still left with net losses in any substantial amount, you've lit the fuse on total annihilation, because a permanently-unemployable underclass will eventually grab its guns and go huntin' up those it holds responsible for this condition.

    Just sayin.

  4. #4
    Join Date
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    The question is not whether your FIL will ever learn to write code.

    The question is, how many code writers does the world need?
    The wonder of our time isn’t how angry we are at politics and politicians; it’s how little we’ve done about it. - Fran Porretto
    -http://bastionofliberty.blogspot.com/2016/10/a-wholly-rational-hatred.html

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Dozdoats View Post
    The question is not whether your FIL will ever learn to write code.

    The question is, how many code writers does the world need?
    Well, both are valid. If there's not enough demand for code writers you create that underclass I just talked about. If there's not enough supply of code writers but not of anything else, then you still make the underclass, just with the added irony that people care less because "they could just be coders!".

  6. #6
    I recently had a conversation with a younger woman, in her 40's. Her last child will graduate high school in a year and will head into the military. She told me that she had licenses and certs for hairstyling, paralegal, and another field that I can't remember. What does she do for a living? Tends bar. It pays more.

    In my area, many of the spaces in tech. schools and community colleges that offer these types of programs are being filled by the children of recent imports. Med. tech fields used to provide a modest income, especially if there were two who had such jobs. Not any more. The wages for those fields has collapsed. The same thing is happening in the more hands on trades, carpentry, plumbing, etc.

    So tech is not the only issue. The OP asks how society can be rearranged. I think that the point is that society is to collapse. The OP describes what is happening in the grocer segment of the market. Well, all retailers are or will soon be in direct competition with Amazon. When Amazon bought out Weggmans, I saw commentary warning about the monopoly on the food chain that Amazon would be able to command. Concerns about monopolies did not seem to count when it was Walmart doing the same thing to local and regional businesses.

    Walmart had a business model that allowed them to lose money on a new store until they had driven out all of the local competition. Then they were free to do what they wanted. I understand that the same dynamic exists with Amazon. I have seen commentary that suggests that Amazon does not need to make a profit in their retail division because it is more than made up for by government contracts for their cloud computing. Perhaps that commentary is all wet, I don't know. But if that is what is happening, that is incredibly NWO and dangerous.

  7. #7
    My advice to young people would be to pick a field that can not be automated : Carpentry, Plumbing, Electrical, Roofing, Masonry, flooring, roofing, tile, Heating/AC, etc.

  8. #8
    Join Date
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    Central Iowa
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    Quote Originally Posted by Plain Jane View Post
    I recently had a conversation with a younger woman, in her 40's. Her last child will graduate high school in a year and will head into the military. She told me that she had licenses and certs for hairstyling, paralegal, and another field that I can't remember. What does she do for a living? Tends bar. It pays more.

    In my area, many of the spaces in tech. schools and community colleges that offer these types of programs are being filled by the children of recent imports. Med. tech fields used to provide a modest income, especially if there were two who had such jobs. Not any more. The wages for those fields has collapsed. The same thing is happening in the more hands on trades, carpentry, plumbing, etc.

    So tech is not the only issue. The OP asks how society can be rearranged. I think that the point is that society is to collapse. The OP describes what is happening in the grocer segment of the market. Well, all retailers are or will soon be in direct competition with Amazon. When Amazon bought out Weggmans, I saw commentary warning about the monopoly on the food chain that Amazon would be able to command. Concerns about monopolies did not seem to count when it was Walmart doing the same thing to local and regional businesses.

    Walmart had a business model that allowed them to lose money on a new store until they had driven out all of the local competition. Then they were free to do what they wanted. I understand that the same dynamic exists with Amazon. I have seen commentary that suggests that Amazon does not need to make a profit in their retail division because it is more than made up for by government contracts for their cloud computing. Perhaps that commentary is all wet, I don't know. But if that is what is happening, that is incredibly NWO and dangerous.
    This is NO different than when Sears and Penney's dominated the market some 40 years ago.
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  9. #9
    Maybe the only solution is.....










































































    EEEEEE---MMMMM---- PEEEEE !!!

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by NoDandy View Post
    My advice to young people would be to pick a field that can not be automated : Carpentry, Plumbing, Electrical, Roofing, Masonry, flooring, roofing, tile, Heating/AC, etc.
    Good luck with that. They're already automating those functions with 3D home printing on some level. Plus, how long do you think those functions will last with no one to pay them? The middle-aged salesman in the OP can't call a plumber, roofer or electrician when he has no job. The carpenter won't find work when the salesman can't buy a house. Or do you think we can run an entire society with maybe eight job classes?

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by packyderms_wife View Post
    This is NO different than when Sears and Penney's dominated the market some 40 years ago.
    Actually, yes it is. When Sears and Penney's dominated the market, you could still find work. When technology automates the jobs away, you CAN'T find work.

  12. #12
    I"m not being sarcastic, just an honest question: This isn't the first 'industrial revolution' mankind has been thru. What did spinners, weavers, farmers due when textile mills and cotton gins were invented? They adapted in some way. Why do you think this is not possible this go-around?

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by moldy View Post
    I"m not being sarcastic, just an honest question: This isn't the first 'industrial revolution' mankind has been thru. What did spinners, weavers, farmers due when textile mills and cotton gins were invented? They adapted in some way. Why do you think this is not possible this go-around?
    This isn't the first "industrial revolution," but it's the first industrial revolution where there isn't lateral movement. History tells us the spinners, weavers, etc became factory workers instead. They had different jobs to go to, but people were still required to run the machines.

    Now, people are no longer required to run the machines. The machines run themselves, driven by computers. They still need people to repair and program them, but it's not an even exchange. There's a net loss in available jobs. You're seeing it everywhere; JCPenney closes stores, Amazon doesn't hire a whole bunch of new people.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by NoDandy View Post
    My advice to young people would be to pick a field that can not be automated : Carpentry, Plumbing, Electrical, Roofing, Masonry, flooring, roofing, tile, Heating/AC, etc.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dosadi View Post
    I know what I advise smart young folk to do. Become one of those invisible cogs in the non tech needs and siphon money off those with more money than sense. When one field folds up those who move into those new jobs that pay good money will still be hiring the shit shoveler types. The type of mess may sort of change over time, but there will always be those who don't want to do it who will hire and pay well to have others do it.
    Wise advice, NoDandy and Dosadi.


    intothegoodnight
    Last edited by intothatgoodnight; 07-17-2017 at 02:37 PM.
    "Do not go gentle into that good night.
    Rage, rage against the dying of the light."

    — Dylan Thomas, "Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night"

  15. #15
    I'm going back to school to learn how to code. Here in Indy, tech is pretty big. They can pay a decent wage, but not LA/NYC/etc. type wages because for the most part housing here is cheap. Well, it was cheap. It is still somewhat reasonable, especially in the burbs with decent schools. You might not get a newer home with all the fancy cabinets and counter tops but you can usually find something that you might like for a reasonable amount. However, rents in downtown Indy are now over $1,000 for a bedroom at most of the newer complexes. Some older complexes still have apartments for $700/bedroom, but they are few and far between, plus the quality will be iffy.

    The thing is the free market is the answer, but no one wants a true free market as that would likely either destroy their industry and/or reduce wages. If home construction takes a 25% haircut, then all the subcontractors who actually do all the building will have to take the same cut in revenue. If those people have less money to spend at retail merchants, all those stores will have to cut prices and likely wages.

    Right now every industry is using the debt slave model. Six and seven year loans on vehicles are now the norm for new vehicles. Adding those extra two or three years makes vehicles that cost way too much affordable. I'm seeing trucks at the Ford lot that run from $55K-$77K...for a truck (I don't care if it has a bunch of fancy stuff, it is still just a truck). Home prices and rents aren't any better, especially for solid homes made out of brick or stone.

    Every single industry wants to squeeze the population for every spare nickle they have: Energy, housing, transportation, education, medical, government, etc.. No one making these decisions has any care about what this means for the economy and such down the road. So long as the CEOs get their millions, their vacation homes, their fancy cars, their business dinners paid for, etc., they could careless about others.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Blacknarwhal View Post
    Good luck with that. They're already automating those functions with 3D home printing on some level. Plus, how long do you think those functions will last with no one to pay them? The middle-aged salesman in the OP can't call a plumber, roofer or electrician when he has no job. The carpenter won't find work when the salesman can't buy a house. Or do you think we can run an entire society with maybe eight job classes?
    If the economic employment possibilities were to become this bleak, tradesmen would have more to worry about that merely putting food on their tables.

    You are describing utter economic and class collapse. There are many notches down, along the way to such finality, that could allow the industrious hard working folks to readily survive, if not thrive.

    Who likes to get called out at 2 AM to fix a broken water pipe, or a heating system that is suddenly on the fritz?

    Folks who occupy such job slots learn to make lemonade out of what the rest of us consider to be merely annoying lemons.

    And likely profit, because of their successful adaptation to this real-world reality.


    intothegoodnight
    "Do not go gentle into that good night.
    Rage, rage against the dying of the light."

    — Dylan Thomas, "Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night"

  17. #17
    Join Date
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    Florida
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    Quote Originally Posted by moldy View Post
    I"m not being sarcastic, just an honest question: This isn't the first 'industrial revolution' mankind has been thru. What did spinners, weavers, farmers due when textile mills and cotton gins were invented? They adapted in some way. Why do you think this is not possible this go-around?
    Bingo!
    The same whine was also heard far and wide when buggy whip makers and streetlamp lighters went obsolete. Some lives were ruined, while some when on to other things.

    Times change and you either change with them or get left behind with all the consequences that implies.

    All life, from the lowest microbes to the most evolved species, is a competition, with no guarantees of coming out on top or even surviving. There always has been and always will be winners and losers.
    Make sure you're a winner because your school participation trophies don't mean squat in the real world.
    "I never saw a wild thing sorry for itself. A small bird will drop frozen dead from a bough without ever having felt sorry for itself." -DH Lawrence
    People are crazy and times are strange
    I'm locked in tight, I'm out of range
    I used to care, but things have changed

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by moldy View Post
    I"m not being sarcastic, just an honest question: This isn't the first 'industrial revolution' mankind has been thru. What did spinners, weavers, farmers due when textile mills and cotton gins were invented? They adapted in some way. Why do you think this is not possible this go-around?
    This is why history is SO important and we still need a few historians around and it should not be made into an "easy" degree for people with more student loans than sense; I'm not going to do a research paper for you on this, there are some wonderful books on the topic and it is a VERY GOOD question!

    But I will say this, many people simply STARVED TO DEATH or died of diseases they got after packing into over crowded urban areas in many cases after being forced marched off the land their families had lived on for hundreds (sometimes thousands) of years because the older systems of property law meant most people didn't actually own their dwellings and once it became more profitable to raise sheep or even sell off the land for railroads and the like; their "lordships" generally did - good personal decision making for them but very bad for the newly displaced people.

    They also MIGRATED - gee where have we seen this recently? Basically people just Pick Up and Moved; first to the cities where some got jobs in factories (that often killed them by age 35 but by then they were "surplus" to requirements) and then if they could afford it or were willing to sign themselves into servitude (not quite slavery); they got on ships and went to the "new" frontiers of North America, Australia and even Argentina, Peru and Chile (which in the 19th century attracted a LOT of European former peasants and factory workers).

    The "dark, satanic, mills" were not a joke or a metaphor for those who stayed behind; especially in the UK they existed and later on the US East Coast as well but at least in the US people could (and did) move with their feet, but that is why the homesteading movement was so popular. In Europe if you tried that, often if you didn't have a permit or were already a local; then not even charity existed for you - again if you were very lucky you (or your daughter) got a job starting at 6 am in the morning until 8pm at night 6 1/2 days a week; or if you were REALLY lucky you got a job in either a local small business or went "into service."

    Service to "your betters" didn't pay much but it did provide room, board and at least one change of clothing a year; however the majority of these workers didn't get to work in fine big houses but rather for people barely better off than they were and became "maids of all work" which meant pretty much meant living in a dark and wet attic (or sleeping among the kitchen ashes - I am not making this up) and working from about 4am until bedtime at 9pm when the lamps were put out (again the 6 1/2 day working week was standard for servants as well).

    There were novelists and muckraking reporters that wrote about this era (Charles Dickens is one of the most famous but there were many others) so people who were better off kind of knew what was going on but unless it directly affected the family most people tried to ignore the situation and get on with life and those most affected often couldn't read or if they could read they didn't have much time for novels - penny dreadfuls and other "low-end" consumer items really got their modern start during this period as the one "good" side of the these changes was more people actually had tiny amounts of cash than ever before, peasants lived in a mostly barter economy except at harvest time.

    The difference today (as my husband likes to point out when this topic comes up) is that we SEE the results of the "new" revolutions both the more classic industrial one in China and the more recent (and in some ways more terrifying) newer version of paying jobs just being eliminated and replaced by NOTHING.

    In the 19th century; you might read in the paper about some poor factory girl throwing herself off the roof (usually with a lurid drawing and perhaps an allusion to her "fate" at the hands of an immoral foreman) but you didn't get the same mass-real time reporting like the Apple Factory in China having to set up nets because so many of the inmates, I mean employees were killing themselves rather than continue to work in those conditions or leave and face shame and starvation.

    Today, you can watch Chinese American reports sneak into to Chinese factory towns and interview people in real time who are working full time but living in old bomb shelters beneath major cities or in shacks on the outskirts of factory towns in Brazil, Cambodia or India.

    The same way that supermarket clerks replaced by automatic tills or fast food workers with nowhere to go will also be on TV and Facebook in real time; as will eventually their swollen and starving children if things are allowed to get that bad (food stamps and welfare hide a lot of this potential for now, but it may not last especially if the majority no longer have paid work to support it).

    So there's a start for you - as for Weavers in particular (one of my hobbies) look up the origin of the world LUDDITE and you will see what happened when the IT Skilled workers of the day (which were the master weavers) the most lucrative and skilled job many commoners could aspire too requiring years of dedication and training - went away pretty much overnight. Hint - it didn't end well for the weavers and their families...many of whom either died or immigrated to the New World.

    Today, we are pretty much fresh out of New Worlds unless those Martain and Moon colonies move a lot faster than expected; and we can already see what happens when there is both war and no employment in places like African and the Middle East. This isn't the first time in history massive numbers of people have just gotten up and walked up the road for thousands of miles to a "better" place; it is just one of the first times we have seen it live in real time; as well as seen the effects of such cultural migrations (especially the negative sides) so quickly.

    It isn't totally new (just watch Gangs of New York which actually for fiction isn't a bad reproduction of life in New York during this immigrant/industrial revolution era) but it is on a massive scale, and again we get a ringside seat that is a lot more immidiate than a week old newspaper.

    Hope that helps, enjoy looking into this, I think you will be rather shocked and surprised...and probably have trouble sleeping for a few nights..
    expatriate Californian living in rural Ireland with husband, dogs, horses. garden and many, many cats

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Plain Jane View Post
    I recently had a conversation with a younger woman, in her 40's. Her last child will graduate high school in a year and will head into the military. She told me that she had licenses and certs for hairstyling, paralegal, and another field that I can't remember. What does she do for a living? Tends bar. It pays more.

    In my area, many of the spaces in tech. schools and community colleges that offer these types of programs are being filled by the children of recent imports. Med. tech fields used to provide a modest income, especially if there were two who had such jobs. Not any more. The wages for those fields has collapsed. The same thing is happening in the more hands on trades, carpentry, plumbing, etc.

    So tech is not the only issue. The OP asks how society can be rearranged.
    A couple/four missing pieces in this discussion:
    • FIRST - The RATE of job-type change and/or complete job elimination without corresponding job replacemt via increasing automation is NOT going to stop - rather increase, in an ever-tightening spiral of effect - more automation with less overall jobs, over time - what do we, as a society, want to "do" about this pending and ongoing future reality?
    • SECOND - a signficant top-of-the-economic-pyramid contributor to all of what goes on, below, in the economic landscape occupied by us mere mortal worker-bees, has to do with monetary and economic policies that are determined and set by central banks - their inability/unwillingness to ZERO inflation causes continued perturbations in every sector of economic activity below the central bank level, and inflation is what steals the worker's future ability to successfully plan for their retirement, and implement such plans with confidence that they will be realized when retirement time arrives.
    • THIRD - Wall Street's greed simply remains unrestrained and out-of-control; repeatedly causing unabated and deadly economic rip-tides that place all workers in monetary/survival peril.
    • FOURTH - the political and judicial classes have been bought off, one way or another, and have wholly abdicated their sworn responsibilities to administer the legitimate moral interests of "we, the people," as the Founding Fathers intended.

      In case you did not notice, it is the Executive branch that "we, the people" are pursuing with our list of complaints, and it is the Executive (think: King) that we are appealing to (Trump) for relief - have you ever thought about this, and how the other two branches of government have utterly and "mysteriously" failed, "we, the people?"

    Quote Originally Posted by Plain Jane View Post
    I think that the point is that society is to collapse. The OP describes what is happening in the grocer segment of the market. Well, all retailers are or will soon be in direct competition with Amazon. When Amazon bought out Weggmans, I saw commentary warning about the monopoly on the food chain that Amazon would be able to command. Concerns about monopolies did not seem to count when it was Walmart doing the same thing to local and regional businesses.

    Walmart had a business model that allowed them to lose money on a new store until they had driven out all of the local competition. Then they were free to do what they wanted. I understand that the same dynamic exists with Amazon. I have seen commentary that suggests that Amazon does not need to make a profit in their retail division because it is more than made up for by government contracts for their cloud computing. Perhaps that commentary is all wet, I don't know. But if that is what is happening, that is incredibly NWO and dangerous.
    You are correct in your observations regarding the obvious entanglements between a monopolistic corporate enterprise, and a very quiet deep-state government meddling/manipulation of normal market signals and forces, and the favored encouragement and consolidation of whole market segments through purposefully round-about and obscured methods of financing/capitalization, along with repeated government-style "tweaking/manipulation" and support of what should otherwise be normal economic market reactions, to then tilt "the market-in-question/favor" of a pre-chosen/designated/artificially propped-up market player towards a pre-determined economic and market-positioning direction - fascism - the merging of state and corporate interests into a third and historically dangerous business entity-type.


    intothegoodnight
    Last edited by intothatgoodnight; 07-17-2017 at 08:33 PM.
    "Do not go gentle into that good night.
    Rage, rage against the dying of the light."

    — Dylan Thomas, "Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night"

  20. #20
    Oh and I forgot to mention the other really important "industry" that employed people during the last industrial revolution - WAR, both in Europe and the Americas but especially in Europe a lot of that "surplus" population died either as soldiers or civilians as nation states fought others (or in the case of North America either themselves - War Between the States or other locals - Mexico, Canada, England for a second round etc).

    My hunch is that is where a lot of "the Elite" think they are going to go with this, this time around and they probably will try it; but that only works for awhile and for a relatively short time period and these days the results could be much worse than they imagine (their bunkers will not be enough).
    expatriate Californian living in rural Ireland with husband, dogs, horses. garden and many, many cats

  21. #21
    Join Date
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    I laughed when I read that the "world's oldest profession" would be replaced by AI robots!

    But upon further consideration, THAT, (if such (female and male robots)were to be perfected and found "better" than the "real thing") would be the real end of the human species, not wars, not economic collapse, not climate change, nothing we now fear as future threatening!

    Maybe that isn't so funny?
    Last edited by ainitfunny; 07-17-2017 at 03:15 PM.
    72, and still learning.
    Striving to become a "know it all".
    LOL! Long road ahead.

  22. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by moldy View Post
    I"m not being sarcastic, just an honest question: This isn't the first 'industrial revolution' mankind has been thru. What did spinners, weavers, farmers do when textile mills and cotton gins were invented? They adapted in some way. Why do you think this is not possible this go-around?
    Quote Originally Posted by TerryK View Post
    Bingo!
    The same whine was also heard far and wide when buggy whip makers and streetlamp lighters went obsolete. Some lives were ruined, while some when on to other things.

    Times change and you either change with them or get left behind with all the consequences that implies.

    All life, from the lowest microbes to the most evolved species, is a competition, with no guarantees of coming out on top or even surviving. There always has been and always will be winners and losers.
    Make sure you're a winner because your school participation trophies don't mean squat in the real world.

    As Blacknarwhal correctly pointed out:

    Quote Originally Posted by Blacknarwhal View Post
    This isn't the first "industrial revolution," but it's the first industrial revolution where there isn't lateral movement. History tells us the spinners, weavers, etc became factory workers instead. They had different jobs to go to, but people were still required to run the machines.

    Now, people are no longer required to run the machines. The machines run themselves, driven by computers. They still need people to repair and program them, but it's not an even exchange. There's a net loss in available jobs. You're seeing it everywhere; JCPenney closes stores, Amazon doesn't hire a whole bunch of new people.
    TerryK - how do you account for the force-multiplication-effect of increased application of "automation-of-the-workforce," which specifically seeks to REDUCE the number of non-skilled jobs available?


    intothegoodnight
    Last edited by intothatgoodnight; 07-17-2017 at 03:53 PM.
    "Do not go gentle into that good night.
    Rage, rage against the dying of the light."

    — Dylan Thomas, "Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night"

  23. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Melodi View Post
    Oh and I forgot to mention the other really important "industry" that employed people during the last industrial revolution - WAR, both in Europe and the Americas but especially in Europe a lot of that "surplus" population died either as soldiers or civilians as nation states fought others (or in the case of North America either themselves - War Between the States or other locals - Mexico, Canada, England for a second round etc).

    My hunch is that is where a lot of "the Elite" think they are going to go with this, this time around and they probably will try it; but that only works for awhile and for a relatively short time period and these days the results could be much worse than they imagine (their bunkers will not be enough).
    Thanks for mentioning this, Melodi - I was just going to post something similar.


    intothegoodnight
    "Do not go gentle into that good night.
    Rage, rage against the dying of the light."

    — Dylan Thomas, "Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night"

  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by intothatgoodnight View Post
    Thanks for mentioning this, Melodi - I was just going to post something similar.


    intothegoodnight
    Your welcome, but complicated though it is; it is an entire process and the other stuff may be even bigger this time than it was the last time.

    The smarter "elites" know this too; which is why the big Silicon Valley Boys and their friends (the new Rail Road Bosses and Robber Barons) are now touting things like a "universal basic income" because they realize that if there are few (or no) real workers (or folks with even some money) there will be few to no consumers; they also know that hungry people in large enough mobs can overwhelm just about any type of protection they can manage to think up.
    expatriate Californian living in rural Ireland with husband, dogs, horses. garden and many, many cats

  25. #25
    I'm going to present an idea that no one wants to hear - or it would have already been

    presented on the thread.

    People are ignoring a higher reality. Within 10 years we'll be into what is generally

    known as the Tribulation, and everything will be changed. History as commonly

    known will be over.

  26. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by duffer View Post
    I'm going to present an idea that no one wants to hear - or it would have already been

    presented on the thread.

    People are ignoring a higher reality. Within 10 years we'll be into what is generally

    known as the Tribulation, and everything will be changed. History as commonly

    known will be over.
    A lot of people have said the exact same thing, and have been very wrong. You might be right, but you might not.

  27. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by duffer View Post
    I'm going to present an idea that no one wants to hear - or it would have already been

    presented on the thread.

    People are ignoring a higher reality. Within 10 years we'll be into what is generally

    known as the Tribulation, and everything will be changed. History as commonly

    known will be over.
    Duffer, it isn't my religion but I will point out that good and sincere Christians have thought this since their first generation; every time the world (or parts of it) go insane, it gets revived - it was extremely popular to believe this was about to occur during the Fall of Rome; later around 1,000 AD; again during the Reformation Wars and throughout the 19th century (when the modern "rapture" beliefs became codified).

    I saw an old film recently I didn't realize would be set (and I think may have been made) during WWII called "The Four Horseman" because at the time people thought it was the end of history and time then too.

    I am not saying you are not correct, I am saying that in general it is a good idea when thinking about how to solve these world problems, to plan as if the Current Trends (or whatever the situation being addressed is) will need solving and then if "The Tribulation" (with or without rapture) or another type of world collapsing event takes place (that's why we prep) it gets faced when the time comes.

    Actually, one reason the idea that the Lord was about to return any day was so popular in the 19th century (especially in England and America) was because of many of the horrific things we are talking about on this thread. People dying at 40 from black lung disease and watching their kids collapse too tired to eat after 12-hour work shifts (at age 7) were convinced things were so bad they simply couldn't continue on this way, as God would not let them.

    I don't want to turn this thread into a religious fest of bible verses either; just pointing out that many generations in the past have felt this way especially during very hard and difficult times; over and over again it has been shown that just waiting for "the end" to happen hasn't really solved much as the world has continued to go on; it may not do so forever, but I seem to recall things about no one really knowing hours or days?...
    expatriate Californian living in rural Ireland with husband, dogs, horses. garden and many, many cats

  28. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Blacknarwhal View Post
    A lot of people have said the exact same thing, and have been very wrong. You might be right, but you might not.
    Blacknarwhal. Yes, agreed. Except the way society is going, the end keeps seeming more and more likely. More threads from people who feel like

    something big is about to happen. Never had a President like Trump before - precursor to something even more unusual?

  29. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by ainitfunny View Post
    I laughed when I read that the "world's oldest profession" would be replaced by AI robots!

    But upon further consideration, THAT, (if such (female and male robots)were to be perfected and found "better" than the "real thing") would be the real end of the human species, not wars, not economic collapse, not climate change, nothing we now fear as future threatening!

    Maybe that isn't so funny?

    Not so funny at all.


  30. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Melodi View Post
    Duffer, it isn't my religion but I will point out that good and sincere Christians have thought this since their first generation; every time the world (or parts of it) go insane, it gets revived - it was extremely popular to believe this was about to occur during the Fall of Rome; later around 1,000 AD; again during the Reformation Wars and throughout the 19th century (when the modern "rapture" beliefs became codified).

    I saw an old film recently I didn't realize would be set (and I think may have been made) during WWII called "The Four Horseman" because at the time people thought it was the end of history and time then too.

    I am not saying you are not correct, I am saying that in general it is a good idea when thinking about how to solve these world problems, to plan as if the Current Trends (or whatever the situation being addressed is) will need solving and then if "The Tribulation" (with or without rapture) or another type of world collapsing event takes place (that's why we prep) it gets faced when the time comes.

    Actually, one reason the idea that the Lord was about to return any day was so popular in the 19th century (especially in England and America) was because of many of the horrific things we are talking about on this thread. People dying at 40 from black lung disease and watching their kids collapse too tired to eat after 12-hour work shifts (at age 7) were convinced things were so bad they simply couldn't continue on this way, as God would not let them.

    I don't want to turn this thread into a religious fest of bible verses either; just pointing out that many generations in the past have felt this way especially during very hard and difficult times; over and over again it has been shown that just waiting for "the end" to happen hasn't really solved much as the world has continued to go on; it may not do so forever, but I seem to recall things about no one really knowing hours or days?...
    Melodi. Thanks for your post. There's much truth in it. I do think that belief about the end times comes down to each person believing what they think

    is right and then everyone waiting to see what happens.

    My Bible teacher points out that the Bible verse says we can't know the day or hour, but doesn't include the year. He opines on the year - 2026 for

    start of the Tribulation, 2033 for return of Jesus. So, we wait and see what happens.

  31. #31
    Join Date
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    What does the younger generation demand now, and will continue to demand?

    Service - i.e. to be treated like royalty.

    They are touchy feely folks. For the most part (always exceptions) they need their ego's massaged and hands held. I missed out on being a millennial by about thismuch, so I am not coming at this topic from an older person's eyes.

    In our business, a vet clinic used to be able to have 1 receptionist per vet. Not anymore. A receptionist is expected (by the client) to sit and talk with you about your pet while you are waiting. The receptionist dare not answering a ringing phone for getting lectured about "pay attention to the person standing in front of you"! or greet someone else coming in the door, etc etc. And for heaven's sake, should you randomly wander by and say hello to a fluffy pomeranian named Poopsie, you damn well better call it by the correct sex (i.e. him vs her) or a manager will have to get involved, a nasty review will be left (they just don't care about your pet!), or etc.

    You can mechanize some jobs away, but there will be areas where personalized service will be required to shine. This will likely be true for many sectors. Have you noticed that everytime you go shopping (unless during super peak hours) employees stocking shelves stop to smile and say hello, or ask how your day is?

    I personally despise this forced interaction, but apparently the younger generation is mostly made of extroverts.

    The automated waiter might be touted as the latest and greatest for the big chain guys, but there will be smaller restaurants that succeed and exceed because of their service.

    You might be able to drive up to a hardware store and say " 50 5 inch lag bolts", and have a machine spit them out at you, but how many people are constantly plying info out of the store clerks about how to use them or other questions on their project??

    Machines can replace tasks, but they can't replace interpersonal interactions.
    “Pay heed to the tales of old wives. It may well be that they alone keep in memory what it was once needful for the wise to know.” – J.R.R. Tolkien
    "Happiness can be found, even in the darkest of times, if one only remembers to turn on the light." - J.K. Rowling "Remember who the real enemy is." - Suzanne Collins "Winter is coming." - George R.R. Martin

  32. #32
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    Not to derail the thread, but...

    Within 10 years we'll be into what is generally

    known as the Tribulation


    Define "Tribulation" please.
    The wonder of our time isn’t how angry we are at politics and politicians; it’s how little we’ve done about it. - Fran Porretto
    -http://bastionofliberty.blogspot.com/2016/10/a-wholly-rational-hatred.html

  33. #33
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    Resource wars are on the close time horizon.
    Go to Church. Pray.
    "Let God arise, let his enemies be scattered: let them also that hate him flee before him. As smoke is driven away, so drive them away: as wax melteth before the fire, so let the wicked perish at the presence of God. But let the righteous be glad; let them rejoice before God: yea, let them exceedingly rejoice" ....Psalm 68

  34. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by Dozdoats View Post
    Not to derail the thread, but...

    Within 10 years we'll be into what is generally

    known as the Tribulation


    Define "Tribulation" please.
    Dozdoats. The time when a tremendously charismatic person comes to rule in the USA, then joins the USA to a united Europe, conducts a series of wars

    against Islam, eventually defeating the Islamic coalition, meanwhile encouraging people to join his global religion, establishing his headquarters in Jerusalem,

    then persecuting those who don't join his religion, even killing some of those who don't join, finally leading the armies of the world against Jesus Christ at

    His Second Advent, being defeated by Jesus Who casts him into the lake of fire.

  35. #35
    Join Date
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    Thank you.

    I was curious as to your understanding of the term, and that was a clear and concise answer. I appreciate it.
    The wonder of our time isn’t how angry we are at politics and politicians; it’s how little we’ve done about it. - Fran Porretto
    -http://bastionofliberty.blogspot.com/2016/10/a-wholly-rational-hatred.html

  36. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by Dozdoats View Post
    Thank you.

    I was curious as to your understanding of the term, and that was a clear and concise answer. I appreciate it.
    Dozdoats. You're welcome. I should also have noted that, for Christians, the tribulational aspect of the 7 years will be the intense pressure to join

    Antichrist's religion during the first half, and persecution and possible execution for not joining during the second half. My Bible teacher thinks that

    one-third of Christians will join Antichrist's religion, another one-third will suffer martyrdom.

  37. #37
    Cyclonemom you maybe right, but I can assure you that just "wanting" human contact doesn't cut it when industries decide that machine based service is better and you "will" get used to it.

    Saw a great example today, our banks have been going "super-digital" for years now; my bank (Bank of Ireland) wanted to get rid of counter service totally but the Irish government threatened to pull their permit to be a bank here (and we only really have three viable ones as it is after the 2008 collapse).

    So instead they have gone "mostly" machine based; the fired er...a laid off the majority of staff (which means in our rural area most of them will be on the dole for life, especially if they are older there are almost no jobs not already taken or given out to family members) and put in two ATM machines; they hid the remaining counter behind a giant monstrosity of tag board (and redid the whole bank in colors that would make IKEA look dull) and put up signs saying "we are changing WITH YOU!" small print announcing that there would only be counter service from 10:30 am to 12:30) and they really-really DO NOT want you using it!

    Today one machine was broken and there was a line going nearly outside the bank already but of course no - they couldn't just open a counter because well there are no longer any staff and HQ won't let them.

    So, you either use the one ATM or you simply don't do any banking; the other bank in town still has real counters with human beings but they are in the process of also moving towards an "automated model" so just changing banks would do nothing much in the long run.

    The bank is required (for now) to have some human beings around "to help the elderly" but they try to avoid even doing that...

    Other industries that have monopolies are likely to follow; it doesn't always work, Tesco (Big Supermarket chain) tried to force automatic tills on the Irish and it backfired spectacularly but it worked pretty well in the UK.

    Basically, they start with places you absolutely have to use (like banks or the electric company) and move on from there...
    expatriate Californian living in rural Ireland with husband, dogs, horses. garden and many, many cats

  38. #38
    Just as an aside, I would also point out that most millennials seem to prefer interacting with a screen, versus a real human being. If you can touch screen your order, and anything else you need (which is already in place in some restaurants like IIRC TGIFridays), you need minimal staff (more profit for businesses).

  39. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by Melodi View Post
    Cyclonemom you maybe right, but I can assure you that just "wanting" human contact doesn't cut it when industries decide that machine based service is better and you "will" get used to it.
    Even if she IS right, she's still wronger than she realizes.

    Because it's a NET LOSS.

    Yes, some places will keep people for the personal service. But more will get rid of them, and there will be fewer opportunities for those people who were removed. A whole new brick in the wall of a Permanently Unemployable Underclass.

  40. #40
    Join Date
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    The market is already pricing in "human contact." Some places charge extra if you want to talk to a human on the phone versus, say, just paying your bill online.
    The wonder of our time isn’t how angry we are at politics and politicians; it’s how little we’ve done about it. - Fran Porretto
    -http://bastionofliberty.blogspot.com/2016/10/a-wholly-rational-hatred.html

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