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Space Weather/Sun Spot
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  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Publius View Post
    So at the closing of the year 2016 we had 32 spotless days.

    Under the Rudolf Wolf sun spot count we have so many spotless days and I'm trying to get an acturate count from someone thats keeping track, but it may be somewhere near 100 or more days without sun spots as it does not count the micro spots as a sun spot.


    Pires Corbyn of Weatheraction.com says we have officly entered a mine ice-age and not 2035 or 2020 but 2016 and into the future for who knows how long.
    solarham.com often has year end stats.
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Publius View Post
    So at the closing of the year 2016 we had 32 spotless days.

    Under the Rudolf Wolf sun spot count we have so many spotless days and I'm trying to get an acturate count from someone thats keeping track, but it may be somewhere near 100 or more days without sun spots as it does not count the micro spots as a sun spot.


    Pires Corbyn of Weatheraction.com says we have officly entered a mine ice-age and not 2035 or 2020 but 2016 and into the future for who knows how long.
    for a realistic count on sunspots,
    go to www.landscheidt.info, click on laymans sunspot count, that uses the old way of counting sun spots, not the uber telescope approach that counts specs as sunspots.
    Last edited by fi103r; 12-31-2016 at 07:06 PM. Reason: cut and paste messed up
    "A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects."
    Robert Heinlein

  3. #43
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    With such a quiet solar year, we should see associated colder climate effects her on Earth. But we're not. Instead, we're seeing cold in some areas, significant warming in others. Instead, the observed climate for 2016 seems headed for yet another record warm year, with arctic and high-latitude warming more than compensating for moderate cooling in some other areas.

    The recent solar cycle 24 had a sunspot maximum noticeably lower than recent normal sunspot cycles; about as low as the Dalton Minimum of the late 19th/early 20th century, although not as low as seen in the Maunder Minimum of 1645-1715.

    We have about six years to go before we get to see if the maximum of cycle 25 is as low or lower than the last one.

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by FarmerJohn View Post
    With such a quiet solar year, we should see associated colder climate effects her on Earth. But we're not. Instead, we're seeing cold in some areas, significant warming in others. Instead, the observed climate for 2016 seems headed for yet another record warm year, with arctic and high-latitude warming more than compensating for moderate cooling in some other areas.

    The recent solar cycle 24 had a sunspot maximum noticeably lower than recent normal sunspot cycles; about as low as the Dalton Minimum of the late 19th/early 20th century, although not as low as seen in the Maunder Minimum of 1645-1715.

    We have about six years to go before we get to see if the maximum of cycle 25 is as low or lower than the last one.
    Go watch episode 3 of Obit on Netflix as to WHY this is happening. Its ALL related to the monster quakes that have been happening since 2004, the earth's axis has shifted and because the earth's axis has shifted so has both the arctic and antarctic circles. THAT causes the over all climate to change NOT cow farts and driving SUV's.

    That said we really ought not treat the earth like a litter box.
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  5. #45
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    If the Earth's axis had shifted, every astronomer on earth, professional and amateur, would have noticed.

    I looked for Obit on Netflix; did you mean Orbit? I haven't watched yet, but will.

  6. #46
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    OK; a Little Update.

    For the year 2016 acording to Space Weather website a total of 32 days without sun spots.
    As you well know its now the year 2017 and the 23 of March and already had 27 days without sun spots. Now as I see this it could turn out to be a much cooler summer this year.
    I have to inquire as I do not know what the count is under a older system where they do not count the micro sized sun spots.

    Again the link to Space Weather. LINK: http://www.spaceweather.com
    Last edited by Publius; 03-24-2017 at 12:14 AM.

  7. #47
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    Thank you for the heads up. Gardening is already behind for me as the weather hasn't been condusive for the greenhouse yet. I hope you're wrong obviously.
    "Let your food be your medicine, and your medicine be your food." Hippocrates

    My Music page https://poorboyproductions.bandcamp.com/

    The fact that we have a "Highway To Hell" and a "Stairway To Heaven" says a lot about anticipated traffic numbers.

  8. #48
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    Ok; a little update and space weather website is is saying we now have a total of 56 days without sun spots compared to 2016 with 32 days with no spots.
    We have exseeded the 2010 spotless days count of 51. 2009 total was 260 spotless days.

  9. #49
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    Ok; The latest on this is we have gone another two days without sun spots and seems to be going for three days in a row. Total number of spotless days for 2017 is 58 day and may offically be 59.
    Last edited by Publius; 10-12-2017 at 02:09 AM.

  10. #50
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    Aurora's in Alaska
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  11. #51
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    Update We have gone a 7 day stretch without sun spots. How much longer we will have to see, it will have an effect on how cold a winter we get.

  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Publius View Post
    Update We have gone a 7 day stretch without sun spots. How much longer we will have to see, it will have an effect on how cold a winter we get.

    It's going to be COLD, and from the looks of things snowy as well! We've had a ton of rain this past week, here in central Iowa, which is unusual for Iowa during the month of October. This means we're in for a cold snowy winter, and my allergies are celebrating!
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  13. #53
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    Well one micro sun spot has shown up breaking the string of spotless days and now up to 63 days without sun spots for the year.
    Last edited by Publius; 10-16-2017 at 11:02 AM.

  14. #54
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    Back to being blank as in no sun spots bringing the total number of spotless days to 64.

  15. #55
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    Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
    Space Weather Prediction Center.
    UPDATED 2017 Oct 17 1230 UTC

    .24 hr Summary...
    Solar activity remained very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
    in available coronagraph imagery.

    .Forecast...
    Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels the next three
    days (17-19 Oct).

    [Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity]

    www.solarham.net
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  16. #56
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    Its cazy as they now see a new sun spot in the making and so we have 68 spotless days to the count for the year.

    This makes a total of 12 spotless days for the later half of the year before we head into winter.

  17. #57
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    Today we have gone one day with out a sun spot bringing the number up to 69.
    Copying a bit of a article from Space Weather website!

    Solar Minimum Returns: Today the sunspot number zero as the sun resumes its transition to Solar Minmum. Images from NASA's Dynamics Oservatory show no dar cores on the face of the Sun:
    This delvelopment continues a years-long trend of decreasing sunspot numbers with a notable interuption in September 2017, which brought a suprising outburst of large sunspots and intense solar flares. The disappearance of sunspots singnals a weaking of the sun's magnetic field and a change in the character of space weather. During Solar Minimum, space weather is dominated by solar wind streams and cosmic rays, not sunspots and solar flares. BOUNS: Solar Minimum auroras are gorgeus.

    Link to Space Weather website, LINK: http://www.spaceweather.com

  18. #58
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    Thanks for the update. Well, 2017 has the highest number of spotless days since the last minimum in 2009. At work that year my group watched space weather every day for a running tally, it was a pretty good minimum. And we had a "non-summer" this year...it got green but was cold and wet a great deal. So far though, autumn has been very mild (though also pretty wet), with only one insignificant snowfall so far, and only a couple days with frost on the ground. I wouldn't mind a warmer winter ~~~~
    All that is gold does not glitter....

  19. #59
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    We have now gone 168 hours or a full 7 days without sunspot's and offishly into the eighth day. This now brings the total up to 76 days.

  20. #60
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    So we now have a 12 day streach without sunspots. Now keep in mind that in the begainning of the year we racked up 56 days without sunspots then it went a while with a small number of sunspots.
    Starting in October we started seeing spotless days again then it would break with a small micro sized sunspot or two and so on, so we are going into winter racking up spotless days and the total for this later half of the year is 24 and counting as of now with a total for the year of 80 spotless days.

    This winter may turn out to be one of the coldest we've seen in a very long time, but when we will start seeing it, we will just have to wait and see.
    Last edited by Publius; 11-14-2017 at 02:03 AM.

  21. #61
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    It went 13 days and now one little sunspot and this brings the yearly total up to 81 days. Below is a little from the website.


    NEW SUNSPOT: A new sunspot is emerging over the suns eastern limb, interrupting a string of 13 spotless days. Guilherme Grassmann photographed the new region from his backyard observatory in Brazil: (Photo) "Using a 120mm refractor and a daystar solar filter, I was able to see multiple dark cores in this sunspot group," says Grassmann.
    The sunspot has been numbered AR2687. Although it has broken a long string of spotless days, AR2687 probably won't alter the current state of low solar flare activity. The sunspot has a stable magnetic field that poses little threat for explosions.
    Last edited by Publius; 11-16-2017 at 01:16 AM.

  22. #62
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    I'm trying to keep track of this as it happens and we just racked up two more spotless days and now up to 83 spotless days for the year 2017.
    See how long a string it goos this time.

  23. #63
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    Just racked up another 6 days bringing the total of spotless days up to 87.
    Just like before its just one sunspot and not four or six of them.

  24. #64
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    I have come to this thread too late and there are too many posts to read...why is it important that there are so many spotless days? Just want to get up to speed.
    "Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving
    safely in an attractive and well preserved body, but rather to skid in
    sideways, chocolate in one hand, martini in the other, body thoroughly used up,
    totally worn out and screaming "WOO HOO ! WHAT A RIDE!"

  25. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by LilRose View Post
    I have come to this thread too late and there are too many posts to read...why is it important that there are so many spotless days? Just want to get up to speed.


    Has to do with Solar Minima and this time around its a Grand Solar Minima and when the sun is doing this it's in a cooling down stage, even just having one or two sun spots perday its cooling off.
    So the longer the sun go's spotless the more it cools down and the cooler the temperatures we have here on earth.

  26. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by LilRose View Post
    I have come to this thread too late and there are too many posts to read...why is it important that there are so many spotless days? Just want to get up to speed.
    It depends, how do you feel about an ice age?
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  27. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Publius View Post
    Has to do with Solar Minima and this time around its a Grand Solar Minima and when the sun is doing this it's in a cooling down stage, even just having one or two sun spots perday its cooling off.
    So the longer the sun go's spotless the more it cools down and the cooler the temperatures we have here on earth.
    and the atmosphere is already experiencing compression events due to the lack of solar activity. It is theorized that it was a compression event that ripped the atmosphere open that lead to the instantaneous deaths of the wooly mammoths who were found to have perfectly preserved buttercups in their stomachs and mouths thousands of years later.
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  28. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by packyderms_wife View Post
    and the atmosphere is already experiencing compression events due to the lack of solar activity. It is theorized that it was a compression event that ripped the atmosphere open that lead to the instantaneous deaths of the wooly mammoths who were found to have perfectly preserved buttercups in their stomachs and mouths thousands of years later.


    There is a like more to this like the atmosphere is more at risk at two sides where its pushed and pulled thin from this action and yes temperatures can drop rapidly in a matter of minutes.
    Can you imagine at 3:30AM in the morning the temps drop to Minus -100F below zero and your home heating system cannot keep up with it.

  29. #69
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    Update; we are back to blank sun again and into day one of a new stretch of spotless days.

  30. #70
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    Solar storm in progress.

    www.solarham.net
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  31. #71
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    Ok; It went added 5 more days before we got a single sunspot, bringing the total up to 92 spotless days.

  32. #72
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    A three day break of just one sunspot and back to blank sun again.

  33. #73
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    Today we have one very small micro sized sunspot almost imposable to see without specialized modern equipment.
    The current total for 2017 is now 94 spotless days.

  34. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Publius View Post
    Today we have one very small micro sized sunspot almost imposable to see without specialized modern equipment.
    The current total for 2017 is now 94 spotless days.
    The longer this goes, the more concerned I become. I had horrible nightmares last night about drought conditions that rivaled the dust bowl.
    People are quick to confuse and despise confidence as arrogance but that is common amongst those who have never accomplished anything in their lives and who have always played it safe not willing to risk failure.

  35. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by packyderms_wife View Post
    The longer this goes, the more concerned I become. I had horrible nightmares last night about drought conditions that rivaled the dust bowl.


    This can go into next year and the first part of 2017 we racked up 56 spotless days and starting in October we started with more spotless days adding another 38 days to the years count.

  36. #76
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    There are graphs in multiple locations on the net displaying the cyclic nature of the sun. Sun spots have been used as an analog to solar activity for a long time now, but how many people ask why that is? They also don't ask how it is we know about the effects of the maunder/sporer/dalton minimums and the previous cycles up until the 1950s era.

    We know these things through an inverse analog. That analog being cosmic spallation of gases in our atmosphere. Cosmic spallation is the creation of radio isotopes in the atmosphere as gamma/x-ray, neutron particles etc impact those elements. One of the more important of those analogs is beryllium 10. It has a half life of ~1.39 million years and is created by cosmic radiation impacting oxygen and nitrogen atoms at varying intensities. If you wish to look up how this happens, look up the terms photoelectric effect, Compton scattering, and pair production.

    Those isotopes end up falling to earth embedding themselves in ice, trees, etc. This effectively creates a record of stronger and weaker periods of solar and interstellar sourced energies that impact the earth's atmosphere.

    That gets to the next point. The interstellar wind is not something you hear about normally if ever.
    https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard...-over-40-years

    It is something that few have twigged to regarding its impact on the earth. The 'consensus' was it never makes it to inside the earth's orbit. That has been proven false. It was also thought that much like our magnetosphere, the solar systems heliosphere prevented the worst of the interstellar wind from entering the system. That also was proven false. The IBEX project discovered there is no bowshock to the heliosphere and likely hasn't been for some time now.

    That gets us to the magnetosphere. Our magnetosphere does in fact have a bowshock. If the earth had no bowshock/magnetosphere we'd never been born to worry about it. That said, it's also weakening. One would think it was correlated with the sunspot cycle, but it's not. Cycle 23 peaked at ~260 spots, but the weakening magnetosphere has been in progress since ~1980 and it's speeding up.
    https://www.livescience.com/46694-ma...d-weakens.html

    In fact, it has been in progress for well over a century.
    https://mobile.nytimes.com/2003/12/1....html?referer=

    Starting in 1980 or so that weakening speed up. In the last 25 years it's come close to weakening as much as it had in the previous 140 years or so.
    This is important as there are several sites springing up that focus almost exclusively on sun spots in their predictions of the so called 'grand solar minimum' and a new mini ice age.

    Now for another piece of the puzzle. Our atmosphere does in fact expand and contract in time with solar cycles. However that has nothing to do with sunspots directly. Remember sunspots are an analog not the cause directly for solar cycles. The atmosphere does what it does due simply to the first and second laws of thermodynamics. Heat it up it expands, cool it down it contracts. You can experience that yourself with a simple volume test of a gas or liquid at varying temperatures. It is the core principle behind how a mercury thermometer works. This from thermal input primarily, and has little to no correlation to the ionizating radiation and the isotopes it creates.

    Now yet another piece of the puzzle.
    The interplanetary magnetic field.
    https://science.nasa.gov/science-new...ec_giantbreach

    The crowd that supports the electric universe hypothesis seizes on the fact that the IMF delivers current to the earth's poles. It makes me wish Faraday was still around to explain the concept of induction.
    Moving along, the IMF is responsible for delivering most of the ionizing particulates and plasma from the sun to the earth and other planets. Unlike the thermal and ionizing output, there is no evidence the IMF has weakened along with solar cycles or that it ever has. If the sun were a battery delivering current from the ether as they propose, it would not be selective choosing to power one thing and not another.

    All that said, we are set up for a perfect storm, but not for the reasons so often quoted by the pseudo science crowd. That storm requires the continuation of current trends which by no means is assured.

    The 'potential' is a rapid change in the earth's weather, magnetosphere, and magnetic poles. The likely change will be towards cooler weather in some places, yet hotter in others. We already see much of that, but we will also likely be seeing changes in the quality and quantity of light impacting the earth as its albedo is altered by these conditions. No time in written history covers this potential given all the varying elements at play. Anyone stating they know definitively what's coming is not basing the statement in fact. The only thing I'm relatively sure of is the probability of us liking what's coming is near zero and that it's coming soon.

    Going back to my room at holiday Inn express. Make what you will of this.
    Last edited by Rayku; Yesterday at 12:05 PM. Reason: typo
    Facts?? We don't need no stinkin facts...

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