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ECON The Stock Market Crash of 1999 repeats in 2013 by John Galt
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  1. #1
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    21 The Stock Market Crash of 1999 repeats in 2013 by John Galt

    The Stock Market Crash of 1999 repeats in 2013


    by John Galt
    February 20, 2013 19:30 ET


    Hmmm, heard this before?


    (click on the link above to watch the evil Satan, er, Lloyd Blankfein video via CNBC)


    Nah, it’s the 1920′s ladies, Kwamer said so:


    (click on the link above to watch the hilarious Cramer video via CNBC)


    Wait a second. Oil prices going up are bad? Didn’t we hear in 2007 and 2008 that this indicated a bull market was going to extend all the way to Dow 20,000?
    Nah, people are not stupid enough to get washed, laundered, rinsed, and raped again are they?


    Ah, uh, yeah, from the New York Times on January 25, 2013:

    As Worries Ebb, Small Investors Propel Markets

    Been there, done that, seen the sick sorry movie when the .com’s started to fall to hell in a hand basket after the investment banksters raped the stupid “small investors” who thought that the concept of getting 50 lb. bags of Gravy Train shipped to their homes was “brilliant” and a sure fire money maker.





    Thus we watched the markets implode and to give one some perspective, here is the chart of the S&P 500 from July 1998 to the end of May 2001 courtesy of StockCharts.com:





    Does today’s current market with over 500 days and counting without any significant correction look familiar to anyone?





    But don’t look at the numbers, read the headlines and understand that Obama would never lie to the citizens and the stock market will go up forever because the Bernank will print bull-crap until the dollar appears to look like some African banana republic’s paper fiat crappola:





    So what happened after the initial crash of 1999 to 2001? Did the markets bounce back and rally up to September 11, 2001 as many “experts” projected after the initial correction?


    Uh, no. Here is the chart from December 1, 1999 until September 7, 2001:





    The initial 30%+ correction was nasty, sharp, and caught most “small investors” blaming their brokers for ineptitude, fraud, and refusing to answer the phone to desperate retirees convinced that Netscape and other .com ventures would never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, go bankrupt and that they were as strong as Apple Computer (Symbol: AAPL).





    Since I’ve taken a bite out of the Apple and looked at what the S&P 500 did, why not a quick look at Professor Dollar during the same 1998-2001 time period:





    Not saying that this could happen again, but do not be shocked if the USD moves from the 81 level to above 89 in very, very short order, especially if the Middle East blows up with short notice.


    Over the next month or two, many of my readers will hear the following:
    “It can’t happen here.”
    “This time it’s different.”
    “The Fed has the stock market’s back.”
    “The economy is so well managed, crashes are rare if not impossible thanks to our modern system of regulation and the Federal Reserve.” (or words to that effect)
    Prepare for the impossible, different, and disastrous as once again the lemming behavior of man, as guided by computer programs that man created, create an untenable market situation that was theoretically never suppose to happen again after 1929; or 1987; or 2008; or 2010…..


    "I've always wondered what the 1920's and 1930's were like, but I never wanted to see it from the German perspective....."
    -John Galt, www.johngaltfla.com

  2. #2
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    Thanks John!

  3. #3
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    Spot on John! We miss you!

    The Concretin
    Alea iacta est! We have crossed the Rubicon.

  4. #4
    The pm charts don't look healthy. How did they look in '99 or 08?

    ( I can hear the creaking sound of a straw house collapsing.)

  5. #5
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    Unless I missed it, the graphs are using dollar values based on face amount, not their devaluation value.

    If that were factored into these numbers the y-axis movement of the plot would be below the x-axis and a lot steeper.

    As it is, the trends on the chart definitely aren't anything to cheer about.

  6. #6
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    We all know it's coming, we just don't know which day they will choose.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Housecarl View Post
    Unless I missed it, the graphs are using dollar values based on face amount, not their devaluation value.

    If that were factored into these numbers the y-axis movement of the plot would be below the x-axis and a lot steeper.

    As it is, the trends on the chart definitely aren't anything to cheer about.
    That's why we might break to new highs on the S&P 500, possibly the DJIA, yet in the end, a 30%+ correction should start by mid-March and last until if not through the summer. If the Fed lets it go unchecked (which they won't) everyone should prepare for martial law at a 50% plus decline in equity values.

    Because this nation will economically collapse completely at that point in time.
    "I've always wondered what the 1920's and 1930's were like, but I never wanted to see it from the German perspective....."
    -John Galt, www.johngaltfla.com

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnGaltfla View Post
    That's why we might break to new highs on the S&P 500, possibly the DJIA, yet in the end, a 30%+ correction should start by mid-March and last until if not through the summer. If the Fed lets it go unchecked (which they won't) everyone should prepare for martial law at a 50% plus decline in equity values.

    Because this nation will economically collapse completely at that point in time.
    I assume the not letting it go unchecked comment would mean additional money printing, Inflation and eventual collapse? Limbaugh spoke today at length in regards to QE3 and the fed printing 85 BILLION a month to prop up the markets, it was quite shocking and I'm embarrassed to say its the first I've heard of it. Guess I'll be selling and moving into cash tomorrow, sadly it probably won't matter a whole lot at this point, thanks for the info.

  9. #9

    The Baltic Dry Index gives the real picture of where world trade meaning the world economy is at.


    The stock market is rigged but the big boys have been getting out of recent so the game is folding.
    .................................................. ......................

    Baltic Dry Index up to 753 points

    http://www.blackseagrain.net/about-u...-to-753-points

    On February 15, 2013, the Baltic Dry Index climbed to 753 points, up 5 points (0.67%) against the level of February 14.

    BDI is a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange. Not restricted to Baltic Sea countries, the index provides "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Taking in 23 shipping routes measured on a timecharter basis, the index covers Handysize, Supramax, Panamax, and Capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grain. Because dry bulk primarily consists of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate or finished goods, the index is also seen as an efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and production.

    On 20 May 2008, the index reached its record high level since its introduction in 1985, reaching 11,793 points. On 3 February 2012, the index had dropped 647 points, the lowest since 1986.
    .................................................. ...................................
    Baltic Dry. A 2013 prediction?

    http://www.worldsocialism.org/spgb/f...013-prediction

    I remember an article by Dave Perrin where he highlights the Baltic Dry Index as a gauge of the recession. http://www.worldsocialism.org/spgb/s...s/2008/no-1249...

    Just read that on the 12th Dec it had 8.2% plunge, crashing from 900 to 826, or the biggest drop since 2008. http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/41...ry-shipping-gl...

    Also commercial ship- building orders were down 48% in the first nine months of 2012 and order backlog fell to half of the level in first half of 2008 and all lead sector indicators such as freight rates, ship prices, used ship transactions, and used ship prices suggest that commercial shipbuilding demand is unlikely to recover much in 2013. Ship prices have fallen 35-40% from the peak and the Clarkson newbuilding price index (down 8% this year) is now back to levels seen in early 2004. http://gcaptain.com/global-shipbuilding-outlook-global/

    In essence, the price of transporting goods collapsed due to lack of demand and over-capacity.

    2013 a deeper recession?
    .................................................. .......

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob1313 View Post
    I assume the not letting it go unchecked comment would mean additional money printing, Inflation and eventual collapse? Limbaugh spoke today at length in regards to QE3 and the fed printing 85 BILLION a month to prop up the markets, it was quite shocking and I'm embarrassed to say its the first I've heard of it. Guess I'll be selling and moving into cash tomorrow, sadly it probably won't matter a whole lot at this point, thanks for the info.
    That's just the public rotation of QE that is under way. It does not count the flip where the Fed is taking the 5, 7, 10, and 30 year US Treasury trash off the hands of China and giving them 1 year or shorter duration notes. The Fed is continuing the policy of monetizing MBS losses which is inflationary. Once the dollar skyrockets as the European collapse accelerates, the Fed will have to triple the amount of QE it is currently engaged in on a monthly basis just to keep the S&P 500 above 1200. A 30-35% down move in the stock market is not unheard of nor unusual based on the current pattern.
    "I've always wondered what the 1920's and 1930's were like, but I never wanted to see it from the German perspective....."
    -John Galt, www.johngaltfla.com

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