07/07 to 07/14 ***The***Winds***Of***WAR***

[The Flying Dutchman]

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Pulling Lebanon Back From the Brink

Posted: 07/07/2012 9:19 am
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-...b_1655934.html

With neighboring Syria imploding, tensions with Iran mounting, and Israel ever threatening, Lebanon appears to be on the brink of conflict. But then that has been the story of Lebanon for decades now. This remarkably beautiful country filled with extraordinary people has long been a victim of its history, its own leaders and the machinations of outsiders. This may be Lebanon's past and present, but if we listen to the Lebanese people, it need not be the country's future.

It was the French who created Lebanon and its patchwork quilt, sect-driven system of governance, designing it to serve France's imperial interests. During the past 80 years, operating within this imposed framework, Lebanon's sectarian elites have jockeyed for advantage, seeking the support of external "partners" to buttress their position. Only too obliging, these foreign "partners" all too often had their own interests to promote or scores to settle. As a result, Lebanon was time and again transformed into a battlefield where sects clashed and regional power struggles were fought.

And so it is today.

Two generations ago, Lebanon was an East-West Cold War battleground. Today it is an arena in which the conflict between the West and its allies versus Iran and its surrogates plays out -- with fragile Lebanon hanging in the balance, and its security, stability and prosperity at risk.

Some may shrug dismissively and say "this is Lebanon" or point to the country's warlords and armed gangs and say "they bring it on themselves." But this recurring precarious state of affairs need not be Lebanon's fate. If we listen to Lebanon's people, it is possible to imagine a very different country, based on a common identity and sense of purpose.

If polling has taught me anything, it is that people almost always know more than the politicians who lead them. In this regard, Lebanon's people have a great deal to say -- and deserve to be heard.

There are, to be sure, issues that divide the Lebanese. For example, two recent polls found Lebanese holding discordant views with regard to Syria and Iran. Shi'a in Lebanon appear to be supportive of the Ba'ath government of Bashar al Assad and also favor close ties with Iran. Meanwhile the country's Sunni community holds the opposite view. Christians are divided in their opinions. In all cases, these attitudes of various Lebanese groups, while reflecting the positions of their leaders, only tell part of the story of what Lebanese really think. On most issues, however, there is a strong domestic consensus -- and it would be wise for leaders in Lebanon, and the rest of us, to pay attention and focus on the issues and policies that could bring most Lebanese together, not those that divide them.

There are many places where Lebanese find common ground. They agree on the country's sorry state of affairs, the political priorities that must be addressed, the importance of national identity, unity and fundamental political reforms that should be enacted.

When, for example, we ask Lebanese whether they are better off or worse off than they were five years ago, all agree they are worse off. Similarly when we ask them if the country is currently on the right track or the wrong track, all groups agree that Lebanon is on the wrong track. And when we ask Lebanese to identify their top political concerns, once again there is a remarkable convergence in attitudes. All Lebanese, across the board, rank "expanding employment opportunities" as their number one concern, followed by "ending corruption and nepotism," "political reform," and "protecting personal freedoms and civil rights." Foreign policy issues are not considered priorities, and at the very bottom of the scale is "promoting political debate" -- something most Lebanese have wearied of.

What is also striking is that when we ask Lebanese for their principle source of identity, they do not name their religion or sect, nor do they say their family or "being Arab." Instead, people in all groups say that it is "being Lebanese." In this regard they are different than Arabs from every other country -- where responses are most often nearly evenly divided amongst "Arab," religion, and their country of origin.

When we ask Lebanese whether they prefer to maintain the sect-based apportionment system of the past or replace it with a "one man/one vote" political structure, there is broad agreement that it is time to implement the latter. They all agree that national unity is a must for the country. And they reject the notion that any one group should dominate over the others.

Almost a century ago, Lebanon's internationally renowned poet, Kahlil Gibran, wrote a marvelous piece, "You have your Lebanon, I have my Lebanon," in which he contrasted the country's self-centered, plundering, bickering elites with the common folk who are Lebanon's heart and soul. Gibran was right then, and his observations hold true today. Lebanon's leaders and those who care about the future of the country ought take note -- listen to Lebanon's people, and help pull the country back from the brink, before it's too late.






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[The Flying Dutchman]

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US orders Iran to pay for 1983 Lebanon attack

Federal judge in Washington rules Tehran should pay $813m
in damages to families of US soldiers killed in Beirut blast.

Last Modified: 07 Jul 2012 09:48
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/americ...055649765.html

A US federal judge has ordered Iran to pay more than $813m in damages and interest to the families of 241 US soldiers killed in the 1983 bombing of a Marine barracks in Lebanon.

Judge Royce Lambeth wrote in a ruling this week that Tehran had to be "punished to the fullest extent legally possible" for the bombing in Beirut on October 23, 1983, the deadliest ever against US soldiers.

"After this opinion, this court will have issued over $8.8bn in judgments against Iran as a result of the 1983 Beirut bombing," Lamberth wrote in the ruling, a copy of which was seen on Friday by the AFP news agency.

"Iran is racking up quite a bill from its sponsorship of terrorism," the Washington judge added, noting that "a number of other Beirut bombing cases remain pending, and their completion will surely increase this amount."

At least 241 American soldiers, including 220 Marines, were killed in the Lebanese capital Beirut when a truck packed with explosives rammed through barricades and detonated in front of the US barracks near the international airport.

The same day, in a co-ordinated attack, 58 French paratroopers were killed by a truck bomb at the French barracks in Beirut.

The US has blamed the twin bombings on Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shia party which is backed by Iran.

Lamberth, whose ruling was delivered on Tuesday, wrote that "no award, however many billions it contained, could accurately reflect the countless lives that have been changed by Iran's dastardly acts".

The nearly $813.77m verdict is the eighth against Iran resulting from the 1983 bombing.

In 2007, under a law allowing foreign governments to be sued in US courts, the same judge ordered Iran to pay $2.65bn to victims' families, an amount he wrote at the time "may be the largest ever entered by a court of the United States against a foreign nation."

"The court applauds plaintiffs' persistent efforts to hold Iran accountable for its cowardly support of terrorism," Lamberth wrote in this week's ruling.

"This horrific act impacted countless individuals and their families, a number of whom receive awards in this lawsuit," the court added.






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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Iran’s military chief: We have a plan for Hormuz
closure, but will only use it if threatened

‘Military commanders must have plans for any situation,’
says Major General Seyed Hassan Firouzabadi

By Yoel GoldmanJuly 7, 2012, 11:23 am0
http://www.timesofisrael.com/irans-m...if-threatened/

Iran has prepared a plan for closing the Strait of Hormuz but will only use it if threatened, the chief of staff of the armed forces told the Iranian Students News Agency late Friday.

Major General Seyed Hassan Firouzabadi said that the Islamic Republic would act rationally when deciding whether to close the strategically important waterway through which an estimated 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes. Iran would only close the strait if its interests were “in serious trouble,” he said.

“We have plans to close the Strait of Hormuz because military commanders must have plans for any situation,” Firouzabadi told ISNA.

Iran has been feeling the heat of increased economic sanctions recently, with new restrictions imposed this week by the European Union on the sale of Iranian oil. Together with US-lead sanctions that prohibit the world’s banks from completing oil transactions with Iranian banks, the newest measures have significantly ratcheted up the pressure on an already floundering Iranian economy.

Western nations are targeting Iran’s nuclear program, and are attempting to force the Islamic Republic to halt further uranium enrichment that could be used in the development of nuclear weapons. Iran insists that its program is maintained for peaceful purposes only.





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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Iran renews threat to close
vital oil route Strait of Hormuz

Agence France-Presse
Jul 8, 2012
http://www.thenational.ae/news/world...rait-of-hormuz

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TEHRAN // Iran will close the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the entrance to the oil-rich Gulf only if its crude revenues are seriously threatened, its top military commander said in remarks reported on Saturday.

"We have plans to close the Strait of Hormuz because military commanders must have plans for any situation," armed forces chief of staff General Hassan Firouzabadi said late on Friday, according to ISNA news agency.

"But Iran, acting rationally, will not close the corridor through which 40 percent of the world's energy passes, unless its interests are in serious trouble," he said, referring to the country's crucial crude revenues.

Several commanders and officials have vowed that Iran reserves as an option closing the strait -- a strategic choke point for much of the Middle East's oil -- if its nuclear facilities are targeted by military strikes.

The threats, renewed repeatedly since December, have generated warnings from the United States, which says any attempt by Iran to close the waterway is a "red line" that would trigger a US military reaction.

"What my colleagues say regarding (the closing of the strait) echo missions assigned to them," Firouzabadi told the Khorasan daily.

But, he explained, "the order to carry out the mission will only come from a decision by the Supreme National Security Council and approved by Supreme Leader" Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has final say on all state matters.

Firouzabadi said statements by military commanders would not affect any decision to close the passage of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

Such threats have regularly caused hikes in oil prices across the globe.

Experts believe Iran, which exports all of its oil from its terminals in the Gulf, would be the first victim of any disruption of crude through the channel.

The issue gained momentum this week as more than third of lawmakers in Iran's parliament backed a bill calling for the waterway to be closed to oil tankers headed to Europe, as retaliation for a European Union embargo on Iranian crude that came into effect on July 1.

The EU measure is the latest of a raft of international sanctions designed to pressure Iran to curb its nuclear ambitions, which the West suspects mask military objective despite Tehran's repeated assertions of seeking only the civilian applications of the technology.

The bill echoed a December warning by Iran's first vice president, Mohammad Reza Rahimi, that the Islamic republic would close the strait if its crucial oil revenues are affected by Western sanctions.

His warning was then followed by naval manoeuvres of the elite Revolutionary Guards practising shutting the waterway in January.

The US has also moved new forces into the Gulf to support anti-mine operations in the Gulf to keep the strategic waterway open, the US Navy said Friday.

Iran has also warned it will respond to any military strikes against its atomic facilities.

The United States and Israel say "all options" remain on the table if talks aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear activities, condemned in four sets of sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council, fail.

World powers and Iran revived negotiations over Tehran's nuclear programme this year, but seem to have reached an impasse after three rounds of talks, as differences in the negotiating positions of the two sides remains significant.






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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Obama Playing Long Game With Iran

—By Kevin Drum
Thu Jul. 5, 2012 10:41 AM PDT
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-dru...long-game-iran

Last month Robert Wright wrote a few posts trying to draw attention to the Obama administration's Iran strategy. In a nutshell, Wright lays out some persuasive evidence that Obama isn't seriously negotiating with Iran at all. In fact, he's deliberately making proposals he knows will be refused and declining to offer Iran anything at all in return for an agreement to halt production of 20% uranium.

Why? Wright believes it's mostly political cowardice: Obama isn't willing to stray from the AIPAC-Israeli party line even slightly with an election just a few months away. In a followup post, however, he suggests there might be something more substantial at work: Obama is buying time because his goal now is regime change in Iran, not just a halt to its nuclear program. Today, after reading a New York Times piece about the apparent success of the new EU oil embargo (Iran is now pumping its excess crude into tankers and sailing them in circles around the Persian Gulf while it desperately tries to find buyers at "bargain-basement prices"), Dan Drezner places one wary foot on the regime change bandwagon:


I'm somewhat dubious about whether any sanctions against Iran will work in the sense of "change Iran's mind about its nuclear program." Even though there is room for a deal, the expectations of future conflict between the current Iranian regime and the West are so high that getting to that deal is going to involve significant amounts of labor.

These sanctions are sufficiently punishing, however, that they suggest a new status quo, which is to keep them in place as a containment shell while the Iranian economy slowly implodes. Unless the global economy experiences a significant rebound — hah! — there is no reason why all non-Iranian parties can't continue with the status quo for quite some time. Even if the Iranian regime persists, its power and influence in the region will continue to wane.

So is that what's going on? Are negotiations now just for show? Has Obama decided that the Iranian economy is weak enough that serious sanctions can bring it to its knees without a shot being fired? Possibly. Stay tuned.






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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Report: Palestinian confessed
to poisoning Arafat in 2006

Published yesterday (updated) 07/07/2012 11:15
http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=501852

BETHLEHEM (Ma'an) -- The pan-Arab satellite channel Al Mayadeen on Friday broadcast a tape of a Palestinian allegedly confessing to poisoning the late President Yasser Arafat's food on behalf of Israeli intelligence.

The video was allegedly recorded in Israel's Negev prison in 2006 and shows a Palestinian prisoner suspected of being planted in the jail as a spy for Israel. He is said to have been interrogated by another detainee.

The unnamed prisoner tells his "interrogator" that he put poison in Arafat's food in the kitchen of the Muqata, the presidential compound in Ramallah, with the help of a cook.

The prisoner says he was recruited by Israel's intelligence service in 2002. Another collaborator had taken him to Jerusalem for work, and introduced him to a man named Yoram who recruited him as a collaborator.

He was given a military uniform and trained with Israeli soldiers for two months, he says. Then he was taken to Jerusalem where Israeli officers showed him and several other collaborators a video about the Muqata, including Arafat's room and the kitchen.

He says the group of collaborators was ordered to poison Arafat and received payment in June or July 2004. They were given poison and told they would be killed if they did not carry out the poisoning, he says.

The man then explains how he and other collaborators accessed the Muqata with the cooperation of one of the compound's guards.

According to his account, the cooks were wearing kitchen uniforms and Arafat's food was ready, but the first cook refused to add the poison. Another agreed and put it in Arafat's rice and soup.

The Palestinian Authority agreed on Wednesday to exhume Arafat's body after new allegations that he was poisoned with the radioactive element polonium-210 in 2004.

A Swiss institute that examined clothing provided by Arafat's widow Suha as part of an Al Jazeera expose said it found "surprisingly" high levels of polonium-210, though symptoms described in the president's medical reports were not consistent with the radioactive agent.

Arafat was confined to the Muqata by Israel for three years after the second intifada erupted.

He collapsed in October 2004, and foreign doctors flocked to his bedside from Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan amid public assurances from Arafat's aides over the next two weeks that he was suffering from no more than the flu.

But looking weak and thin, he was airlifted to a military hospital in France, where he slipped into a coma and died on Nov. 11, 2004.

French doctors who treated Arafat in his final days said they could not establish the cause of death. French officials, citing privacy laws, refused to give details of the nature of his illness.

Israeli Army Radio said Wednesday that introducing polonium into food was the only way to kill someone with the poison and asked Avi Dichter, who headed Israel's spy agency at the time, whether it would have been possible with Arafat.

"You're asking me as his cook?" he answered, laughing.

He continued: "No, we were focused on more serious things. Arafat's food did not interest us. I think it interested those around him, in order, really, to keep his health up, as he was indeed known to be unwell. But the Shin Bet, or the State of Israel, were not involved in Yasser Arafat's food."





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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Israeli expert: Arafat polonium planted

Published: July 6, 2012 at 3:43 PM
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-Ne...6491341603810/

JERUSALEM, July 6 (UPI) -- If Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat had been killed by polonium poisoning in 2004, high levels would not have been found on his clothes, an Israeli expert says.

Ely Karmon, a specialist in biological, chemical and nuclear terrorism at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya's Institute for Counterterrorism, told the Jerusalem Post that polonium decays quickly. He said it has a half life of 138 days, meaning that "half of the substance decays every four-and-one-half months."

The high levels of polonium reportedly found by Swiss scientists on Arafat's clothing suggest it was planted recently, Karmon said.

Karmon said Suha Arafat, Arafat's widow, would have been poisoned as well if the clothing was in her custody for eight years. He also cited French medical records that show Arafat's symptoms were not those of polonium poisoning.

The most notorious case of polonium poisoning was Alexander Litvinenko, a former Russian agent who had taken refuge in London. He died there in 2006.

Arafat, the longtime head of the Palestine Liberation Organization, was head of the Palestinian National Authority at the time of his death.


Read more: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-Ne...#ixzz1zwmcRMUf




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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Syria's fighting spills into Lebanon, five killed

Sat, 7 Jul 2012 14:24 GMT
Source: reuters // Reuters

* Deaths reported in border villages hit by mortar fire

* Fighting took over 90 more lives on Friday

* Diplomatic deadlock as China, Russia rebuff U.S.

By Oliver Holmes
http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/s...on-five-killed

BEIRUT, July 7 (Reuters) - Syria's conflict spilled further into Lebanon on Saturday when mortar fire from President Bashar al-Assad's forces hit villages in the north, killing five people after rebels crossed the border to seek refuge, residents said.

Rebels fighting to unseat Assad have used north Lebanon as a base and his forces have at times bombed villages and even pursued insurgents over the border, threatening to stoke tension in Lebanon, whose sectarian divisions mirror those in Syria.

Residents of Lebanon's Wadi Khaled region said several mortar bombs hit farm buildings five to 20 km (3 to 12 miles) from the border at around 2 a.m. At midday villagers reported more explosions and said they heard gunfire close to the border.

In the village of al-Mahatta, a house was destroyed, killing a 16-year-old girl and wounding a two-year old and a four-year old, family members told Reuters. A 25-year-old woman and a man were killed in nearby villages, residents said.

Two Bedouins were killed in the village of Hishe, which straddles a river demarcating the border, when two rocket-propelled grenades fired from within Syria hit their tent, according to local residents.

Lebanon's army confirmed one of the deaths and said several Syrian shells had landed in Lebanese territory, but had no further information. Lebanese President Michel Suleiman issued a statement regretting the deaths and promising an investigation.

Syria's bloodshed has also encroached on the territory of Turkey, a much bigger and more militarily powerful neighbour. Ankara, a former Assad friend turned foe, reinforced its frontier and scrambled fighter aircraft several times after Syria shot down a Turkish reconnaissance jet on June 22.

DIPLOMATIC IMPASSE

The diplomatic stalemate that has frustrated international efforts to bring about a peaceful transition in Syria persisted on Saturday as China joined Russia in rejecting a U.S. accusation that Beijing and Moscow were obstacles to a solution.

In Syria, the army bombarded towns across northern Aleppo province on Saturday in a concerted effort to root out insurgents who have taken control of some areas, the anti-government Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

"The bombing is the heaviest since the start of military operations in rural Aleppo in an attempt to control the region after regular Syrian army forces suffered heavy losses over the past few months," the British-based activist group reported.

It said three people had died, including two rebels.

The official Syrian news agency SANA said troops foiled infiltration attempts by armed men from Turkey and Lebanon on Friday. It said one clash "resulted in the killing, injury of dozens of the infiltrated gunmen".

In Idlib province, SANA said, an armed terrorist group was prevented from infiltrating from Turkey in Harem region. It quoted a source as saying a number were killed "while the rest managed to flee back into the Turkish territories".

The Observatory said many families had been displaced and water, electricity and medical supplies were running short.

DANGER AROUND ALEPPO

Aleppo, Syria's second largest city and commercial hub, has been largely spared of the violence. But the outskirts of the city and the wider province have seen rebels gaining territory since the uprising began 16 months ago.

SANA reported a clash "with an armed terrorist group in Azaz area north of Aleppo as it was attacking the citizens and perpetrating killings". It said eight gunmen were killed and six cars equipped with machineguns plus a stolen ambulance were destroyed. The agency named the dead.

Opposition activists say at least 15,000 people have been killed since the uprising began. Assad says the rebels are foreign-backed terrorists who have killed thousands of army and police troops in hit-and-run attacks and roadside bombings.

The Observatory said 93 people, mostly civilians, were killed across Syria on Friday, when protesters took the streets to call for a "people's liberation war."

CHINA BRISTLES AT CLINTON'S ACCUSATION

Russia and China have repeatedly used veto power at the U.N. Security Council to block international attempts to push Assad to leave power to make way for a democratic transition in the pivotal Arab country.

At a "Friends of Syria" meeting grouping Assad's Western and Arab opponents, Clinton urged them to make Russia and China "pay a price" for helping the authoritarian leader stay in the office he, and his late father before him, have held for 42 years. ID:nL6E8I62J4]

On Saturday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin shot back: "Any words and deeds that slander China and sow discord between China and other countries will be in vain."

Russia and China say they are committed to the peace plan of U.N. envoy Kofi Annan that prescribes national dialogue, but reject the position of Western powers and their Gulf Arab allies that Assad must step down to enable reform in Syria.

News on Friday that one of Assad's personal friends had defected and was headed for exile in France was hailed by Clinton as proof that members of the Damascus leadership were starting to "vote with their feet" and leave a sinking ship.

Manaf Tlas, a Republican Guard brigadier and son of the longtime defence minister under Assad's father Hafez, has yet to surface abroad or clearly to throw his lot in with the rebels.

But his desertion, leaked by family friends, was confirmed by the French government, giving a boost to the "Friends of Syria" conference it hosted in Paris.

Western powers and Sunni Muslim Arab rulers opposed to Assad, whose minority Alawite sect - an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam - has dominated Syria for decades, agreed to "massively increase" aid to the Syrian opposition.

Deadlock in global diplomacy has left the Western powers casting about to give an impression of momentum growing against Assad. They have held a series of meetings, touting defections to try to pile psychological pressure on Assad's ruling elite.






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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Clinton's criticism of China 'unacceptable'

Updated: 2012-07-07 20:03
( Xinhua)
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2...t_15557605.htm

BEIJING - A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman on Saturday said that US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's criticism of China at the latest Friends of Syria meeting is "unacceptable."

"China is not impeding the process of resolving the Syrian issues," Liu Weimin said at a regular press conference in response to a question on Clinton's remarks on Friday in Paris.

At the third Friends of Syria meeting, Clinton said Russia and China were "holding up progress" in a settlement to the 16-month crisis, describing their stances as "no longer tolerable."

But Liu retorted, "On the contrary, China has made an important contribution to safeguarding the UN Charter, the basic norms governing international relations, the peace and stability of the region and the fundamental interests of the Syrian people as well as pursuing a political solution to the Syrian issues."

The spokesman said the Geneva meeting, a ministerial-level gathering of the Action Group on Syria in which China played a constructive role, produced positive outcomes.

The Geneva meeting on June 30 gathered foreign ministers of the UN Security Council's five permanent members along with Turkey, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq, plus representatives of the UN, the Arab League and the European Union. The ministers agreed that a transitional government should be set up in Syria to end the conflict but did not stipulate the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad.

China's impartial and constructive stance as well as its diplomatic efforts have been widely recognized and supported by the international community, said Liu, adding that any efforts to blemish the image of China or make mischief between it and other nations will end in vain.







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[The Flying Dutchman]

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07/07/2012

Syrian artillery strikes northern Lebanon

By News Wires (text)
http://www.france24.com/en/20120707-...y-attack-assad

REUTERS - Syria’s conflict spilled further into Lebanon on Saturday when mortar fire from government forces crashed into villages in the north, killing two women and a man after rebels crossed the border for refuge, residents said.

In contrast with Turkey, which openly harbours rebels fighting to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Lebanon was not expected to respond militarily and has played down the effect of regular clashes along the frontier.

But rebels have used north Lebanon as a base and Assad’s forces have at times bombed villages and even crossed the border in pursuit of militants, threatening to inflame tensions in Lebanon given a long history of Syrian domination there.

Residents of Lebanon’s Wadi Khaled region said several mortar bombs hit farm buildings five to 20 km (3 to 12 miles) from the border at around 2 a.m. At midday villagers reported more explosions and said they heard gunfire close to the border.

In the village of al-Mahatta, a house was destroyed, killing a 16-year-old girl and wounding a two-year old and a four-year old, family members told Reuters. A 25-year-old woman and a man were killed in nearby villages, residents said.

The Lebanese army issued a brief statement about the incident. There was no immediate response from the prime minister or the foreign ministry, both of whom have expressed fears that Lebanon could be dragged into the conflict.

Turkey reinforced its border and scrambled fighter aircraft on several occasions last week after Syria shot down a Turkish warplane on June 22.

In Syria, the army bombarded towns across northern Aleppo province on Saturday in a concerted effort to root out insurgents who have taken control of some areas, the anti-government Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

“The bombing is the heaviest since the start of military operations in rural Aleppo in an attempt to control the region after regular Syrian army forces suffered heavy losses over the past few months,” the British-based activist group reported.

It said three people had died, including two rebels.

The Observatory said many families had been displaced and water, electricity and medical supplies were running short.

Danger around Aleppo

Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city and commercial hub, has been largely spared of the violence. But the outskirts of the city and the wider province have seen rebels gaining territory since the uprising began 16 months ago.

Opposition activists say at least 15,000 people have been killed over that time. Assad says the rebels are foreign-backed terrorists who have killed thousands of army and police troops in hit-and-run attacks and roadside bombings.

Residents say rebels have set up checkpoints along roads in the Aleppo region and in some towns the army is confined to barracks.

The Observatory said 93 people, mostly civilians, were killed across Syria on Friday, when protesters took the streets to call for a “people’s liberation war.”

Opposition activists said they feared for the lives of the residents of Khan Sheikhoun after the army seized control of the rebel stronghold in the northern Idlib province on Friday in an assault with helicopter gunships.

On the diplomatic front, China on Saturday joined Russia in rejecting U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s accusation that Beijing and Moscow have hindered efforts to bring about a peaceful resolution of the crisis in Syria.

Any attempt to “slander” China was doomed to fail, it said.

Clinton had urged Assad’s international opponents meeting in Paris on Friday to make Russia and China “pay a price” for helping the authoritarian leader keep power in Damascus.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said Clinton’s comments were “totally unacceptable”.

“Any words and deeds that slander China and sow discord between China and other countries will be in vain,” he said.

Diplomatic deadlock

Russia and China have repeatedly used veto power at the U.N. Security Council to block international attempts to persuade Assad to leave power to make way for a democratic transition in the pivotal Arab country.

They say they are committed to the peace plan of U.N. envoy Kofi Annan that proposes national dialogue. U.N. peace monitors effectively gave up on their mission last month after just weeks in Syria as it became clear there was no peace to monitor.

News on Friday that one of Assad’s personal friends had defected and was headed for exile in France was hailed by Clinton as proof that members of the Damascus leadership were starting to “vote with their feet” and leave a sinking ship.

Manaf Tlas, a Republican Guard brigadier and son of the longtime defence minister under Assad’s father Hafez, has yet to surface abroad or clearly to throw his lot in with the rebels.

But his desertion, leaked by family friends, was confirmed by the French government, giving a boost to the “Friends of Syria” conference it hosted in Paris.

Western powers and Sunni Muslim Arab rulers opposed to Assad, whose minority Alawite sect - an offshoot of Shi’ite Islam - has dominated Syria’s power structure for decades, agreed to “massively increase” aid to the Syrian opposition.

Deadlock in global diplomacy has left the Western powers trying to give an impression of momentum growing against Assad, holding a series of meetings, trumpeting defections and piling psychological pressure on Assad’s ruling elite.

Tlas and his father Mustafa, who friends said left for Paris some months ago claiming medical problems, were rare faces from Syria’s Sunni majority in the Alawite-led ruling clique. Their flight may show Assad is losing support among wealthier Sunnis.

It also suggests the Tlas clan, whatever moral scruples friends say were their prime motive for abandoning their friend and patron, has seen the writing on the wall for Assad’s rule.

Thousands of families have fled their homes in the past two weeks due to heavy fighting between government forces and rebels and many face food shortages, the United Nations said on Friday.

Late on Friday, about 300 refugees, including about 30 military personnel, crossed into Turkey at the border at Bukulmez in Hatay province, according to a Reuters cameraman.






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[Ragnarok]

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[b][center]07/07/2012

Syrian artillery strikes northern Lebanon

Why does the word " Gleiwitz " keep popping in my head???

[Housecarl]

For links see article source....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...oods-long-game

The Muslim Brotherhood's Long Game
Egypt's Ruling Party Plots its Path to Power
Eric Trager
July 6, 2012
Article Summary and Author Biography

2Comments

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In the 18 months since the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak, the Muslim Brotherhood has risen swiftly from the cave to the castle. It founded the now-dominant Freedom and Justice Party last April, won a massive plurality in the winter parliamentary elections, and, last week, celebrated as its candidate, Mohamed Morsi, won Egypt's presidential elections. After 84 years of using its nationwide social services networks to build an Islamic state in Egypt from the ground up, the Brotherhood is, for the first time, poised to shape Egyptian society from the top down.

There is, however, a catch: most of the Brotherhood's gains exist in name only. In early June, a court order invalidated the parliamentary elections and dissolved the Brotherhood-dominated parliament. Then, just prior to the second round of the presidential elections, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) issued a constitutional declaration that seized executive authority from the presidency, ultimately rendering Morsi a mostly powerless figure.

But after weeks of mounting tension with the SCAF, including mass demonstrations against the junta's power grab, the Brotherhood is dialing things down. It fears that agitating for more authority now could foment unrest and alienate a deeply divided public. It is also wary of what happened in Algeria in 1991, when the country's military-backed government responded to the electoral victory of an Islamist party with a harsh crackdown that culminated in civil war. To avoid further violence and cement its place in Egyptian politics, the Brotherhood now hopes to create a period of calm in the short run so that it can act more assertively in the future.

To begin with, the Brotherhood is attempting to forge a unified front with Egypt's other political parties. It began these efforts a week before the announcement of Morsi's victory to dissuade the SCAF from rigging the elections for Mubarak-era candidate Ahmed Shafik. During two days of intense negotiations, Morsi met with a wide spectrum of political groups and activists, promising to name a woman and a Christian as vice presidents and to appoint a cabinet that would not be dominated by the Brotherhood. Brotherhood leaders have used this agreement to prove that they intend to build a representative government. "We are standing with all political powers for the same demands," Brotherhood parliamentarian Khaled Deeb told me.
The current calm, and the Brotherhood's attempt to appear inclusive while also accommodating the Egyptian military, will not last.

Yet this is not the first time that the Brotherhood has attempted to insulate itself by aligning with other factions, and history suggests that these agreements are typically short-lived. In June 2011, the Brotherhood joined the nationalist Wafd party in creating the Democratic Alliance for Egypt, an electoral coalition that at one point included approximately forty political parties ranging from socialist to Salafist. But by September, the Democratic Alliance broke down over the Brotherhood's insistence on reserving 40 percent of the coalition's candidacies for its own members, thereby leaving too few seats to satisfy its other partners, most of whom bolted. It hardly mattered: three months of unity enabled the Brotherhood to build its profile as a leading political entity, and it ultimately won a 47-percent plurality in the winter parliamentary elections.

The Brotherhood's current unity project appears destined for the same fate. Despite initial reports that Brotherhood figures would fill only 30 percent of the new cabinet, Brotherhood parliamentary leader Farid Ismail recently said in Al-Ahram that the organization may take up to half. The Brotherhood also seems intent on controlling the cabinet selection process to ensure that many non-Brotherhood ministers are non-ideological experts who are balanced out by Brotherhood-affiliated deputy ministers. "We have more than one [Brotherhood] candidate for each cabinet position, and some of those might be deputies," Brotherhood parliamentary leader Saad al-Husseini told me. "And we might nominate someone from a technocratic [background] or ask the other parties for nominations."

The Brotherhood's promise to nominate a Christian and female vice president is also more about symbolism than genuine power sharing. Brotherhood sources have suggested that Morsi may appoint up to five vice presidents, thereby watering down the influence of the Christian and female deputies. Moreover, to prevent Morsi from being succeeded by either a woman or a Copt in the event of his death, the Brotherhood will seek to maintain the current constitutional clause mandating that the speaker of the parliament -- currently Brotherhood leader Saad al-Katatny -- assume the presidency. "A state with a Muslim majority can't be ruled by a non-Muslim," Brotherhood Guidance Office leader Mahmoud Hussein told me, citing a sharia principle.

The second prong of the Brotherhood's strategy for temporary calm involves its coordination with the military. "This relationship was established from the first day," Deeb, the Brotherhood parliamentarian, told me. "No clash, no total agreement." In the week leading up to the announcement of Morsi's victory, Brotherhood leaders Katatny and Khairat al-Shater, among others, met frequently with SCAF generals, apparently hashing out a deal to ensure Morsi's election while tabling other areas of disagreement. The existence of these meetings, which now include Morsi, have led to a shift in the Brotherhood's rhetoric. After months of accusing the SCAF of seeking to engineer the presidential elections and stage a coup, Brotherhood leaders are now praising the SCAF's stewardship. At an inaugural event on Saturday, Morsi declared, "The SCAF has fulfilled its promises and the oath it made, to not be an alternative to popular will."

The Brotherhood has also signaled that it will now accept several key SCAF demands that it had previously opposed. In this vein, immediately after his electoral victory was announced, Morsi stated that he would only be sworn in before the parliament, thereby pressuring the SCAF to reverse the parliament's dissolution. Yet he ultimately agreed to be sworn in before the Supreme Constitutional Court, which implicitly recognized the validity of the SCAF's constitutional declaration.

Brotherhood leaders have also intimated that they can live with the power that the SCAF appropriated to itself via the constitutional declaration, at least for now. "The constitutional declaration doesn't give the SCAF full power -- just the right for legislation," al-Husseini, the Brotherhood parliamentary leader, told me. "The president has veto power." The Brotherhood even seems willing to accept SCAF's autonomy over military budgets, a key SCAF demand, so long as a small civilian committee is briefed on the details. "I can't bring the military budget in front of the parliament and discuss it publicly," Brotherhood parliamentarian Azza al-Garf told me. "It should be discussed among a few people in parliament secretly." As a result, the military's vast business holdings, which are said to encompass between 15 and 40 percent of the Egyptian economy, appear safe for the time being.

The Brotherhood's arrangement with the SCAF is not surprising. It is consistent with the organization's long-held strategy of avoiding confrontation with more powerful authorities by negotiating the extent of its political activities. In fact, Morsi was the Brotherhood's point man in these negotiations during the last five years of Mubarak's rule, using the dealings to coordinate the Brotherhood's participation in parliamentary elections and limited interaction with various protest movements. As a cohesive, 84 year-old society, the Brotherhood typically places organizational goals, such as achieving power incrementally, over broader societal goals, such as ending autocratic rule more immediately. "Our program is a long-term one, not a short-term one," Morsi told me in August 2010. "If we are rushing things, then I don't think that this leads to a real stable position."

This hardly means, however, that the Brotherhood intends to accommodate the military indefinitely. Last November, for example, the SCAF and the Brotherhood struck a deal in which the Brotherhood agreed to avoid violent Tahrir Square protests in exchange for the SCAF's agreement to hold parliamentary elections on time. But the pact broke down in March, when the SCAF first threatened to dissolve the parliament and the Brotherhood suddenly dropped its promise that it would not run a presidential candidate. Moreover, the Brotherhood appears unlikely to accept long-term limits on the authority that it has won in the elections. "The army is owned by the people," said Brotherhood parliamentarian Osama Suleiman told me. "[Civilian oversight of the military] is the popular will -- and nobody can stop popular will."

In short, the long-anticipated confrontation between the SCAF and Brotherhood has been delayed -- and, for that, many Egyptians are thankful. After all, Cairo seemed on the brink of disaster a few weeks ago, when tens of thousands of mostly Islamist protesters packed Tahrir Square, some declaring themselves ready to die if Shafik was named president. But the current calm, and the Brotherhood's attempt to appear inclusive while also accommodating the SCAF, will not last. The Brotherhood will use this period to build its legitimacy as Egypt's next ruling party, and resume its push for more authority once the temperature cools down.

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[Housecarl]

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July 6, 2012
Why Russia Is Backing Syria
By RUSLAN PUKHOV

Moscow

MANY in the West believe that Russia’s support for Syria stems from Moscow’s desire to profit from selling arms to Bashar al-Assad’s government and maintain its naval facility at the Syrian port of Tartus. But these speculations are superficial and misguided. The real reason that Russia is resisting strong international action against the Assad regime is that it fears the spread of Islamic radicalism and the erosion of its superpower status in a world where Western nations are increasingly undertaking unilateral military interventions.

Since 2005, Russian defense contracts with Syria have amounted to only about $5.5 billion — mostly to modernize Syria’s air force and air defenses. And although Syria had been making its scheduled payments in a fairly timely manner, many contracts were delayed by Russia for political reasons. A contract for four MiG-31E fighter planes was annulled altogether. And recently it became known that Russia had actually halted the planned delivery of S-300 mobile antiaircraft missile systems to Syria.

Syria is among Russia’s significant customers, but it is by no means one of the key buyers of Russian arms — accounting for just 5 percent of Russia’s global arms sales in 2011. Indeed, Russia has long refrained from supplying Damascus with the most powerful weapons systems so as to avoid angering Israel and the West — sometimes to the detriment of Russia’s commercial and political ties with Syria.

To put it plainly, arms sales to Syria today do not have any significance for Russia from either a commercial or a military-technological standpoint, and Syria isn’t an especially important partner in military-technological cooperation.

Indeed, Russia could quite easily resell weapons ordered by the Syrians (especially the most expensive items, like fighter jets and missile systems) to third parties, thus minimizing its losses. And even if the Assad government survives, it will be much weaker and is unlikely to be able to continue buying Russian arms.

The Russian Navy’s logistical support facility at Tartus is similarly unimportant. It essentially amounts to two floating moorings, a couple of warehouses, a barracks and a few buildings. On shore, there are no more than 50 seamen. For the Navy, the facility in Tartus has more symbolic than practical significance. It can’t serve as a support base for deploying naval forces in the Mediterranean Sea, and even visits by Russian military ships are carried out more for demonstrative purposes than out of any real need to replenish supplies.

Russia’s current Syria policy basically boils down to supporting the Assad government and preventing a foreign intervention aimed at overthrowing it, as happened in Libya. President Vladimir V. Putin is simply channeling public opinion and the expert consensus while playing his customary role as the protector of Russian interests who curtails the willfulness of the West.

Many Russians believe that the collapse of the Assad government would be tantamount to the loss of Russia’s last client and ally in the Middle East and the final elimination of traces of former Soviet prowess there — illusory as those traces may be. They believe that Western intervention in Syria (which Russia cannot counter militarily) would be an intentional profanation of one of the few remaining symbols of Russia’s status as a great world power.

Such attitudes are further buttressed by widespread pessimism about the eventual outcome of the Arab Spring, and the Syrian revolution in particular. Most Russian observers believe that Arab revolutions have completely destabilized the region and cleared the road to power for the Islamists. In Moscow, secular authoritarian governments are seen as the sole realistic alternative to Islamic dominance.

The continuing struggles in Arab countries are seen as a battle by those who wear neckties against those who do not wear them. Russians have long suffered from terrorism and extremism at the hands of Islamists in the northern Caucasus, and they are therefore firmly on the side of those who wear neckties.

To people in Moscow, Mr. Assad appears not so much as “a bad dictator” but as a secular leader struggling with an uprising of Islamist barbarians. The active support from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey’s Islamist government for rebels in Syria only heightens suspicions in Russia about the Islamist nature of the current opposition in Syria and rebels throughout the Middle East.

Finally, Russians are angry about the West’s propensity for unilateral interventionism — not to mention the blatantly broad interpretation of the resolutions adopted by the United Nations Security Council and the direct violations of those resolutions in Libya.

According to this view, the West, led by America, demonstrated its cynicism, perfidy and a typical policy of double standards. That’s why all the Western moralizing and calls for intervention in Syria are perceived by the Russian public as yet another manifestation of cynical hypocrisy of the worst kind.

There is no doubt that preserving his own power is also on Mr. Putin’s mind as his authoritarian government begins to wobble in the face of growing protests that enjoy political approval and support from the West. He cannot but sympathize with Mr. Assad as a fellow autocratic ruler struggling with outside interference in domestic affairs.

But ideological solidarity is a secondary factor at best. Mr. Putin is capitalizing on traditional Russian suspicions of the West, and his support for Mr. Assad is based on the firm conviction that an Islamist-led revolution in Syria, especially one that receives support through the intervention of Western and Arab states, will seriously harm Russia’s long-term interests.

Ruslan Pukhov is director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a research organization. This essay was translated by Steven Seymour from the Russian.

[Housecarl]

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07-06-2012 19:31
Resurgent military power
Japan’s rapid turn to right threatens regional peace

The specter of militarism is rearing its ugly head in Japan, slowly but unmistakably.

Japan, which started its military comeback on the international stage with the dispatch of Self-Defense Forces (SDF) troops to the Gulf War in the 1990s, has since stepped up arms exports, and more recently, opened the way for nuclear armament, at least legally.

Now Tokyo is sounding out the possibility of allowing SDF to engage in military activities overseas if its allies are attacked, under the pretext of ``collective self-defense.”

This means Japanese soldiers can land on ― once again ― the Korean Peninsula if North Korea attacks the U.S. troops in South Korea.

The scenario is of course based on the assumption that the latest study made by a blue-ribbon panel under the Japanese Prime Minister’s Office, as reported by public broadcaster NHK, becomes a reality. If past experiences are any guide, however, the media report could be a leak and the conclusion might mirror Tokyo’s intention.

Some ultra-rightist politicians, including the main opposition Liberal Democratic Party, are not content with the ongoing ``reinterpretation” of Japan’s pacifist Constitution, vowing to revise it in ways to make Japan a ``normal” country and turn the SDF into a regular army. Just as disturbing is up to 60 percent of the Japanese people are supporting their right to collective self-defense, as a survey by the Asahi Shimbun showed.

There have always been right-wing groups in Japan who wouldn’t repent on but justify their country’s wartime atrocities and other past misdeeds. Yet it increasingly seems as if the once exceptional groups are gaining voices amid the multiple distresses inflicting on the neighboring country at home and abroad, such as a massive earthquake, nuclear disaster, economy stagnating for decades, and China’s economic and military emergence.

We hope the majority of moralistic and conscientious Japanese citizens would know better than allowing extreme nationalists to inject a mistaken fantasy of a resurgent military power. Especially worrisome in this regard is the United States’ new Asia policy, in which Washington is making self-negation of permitting Tokyo to drop the pacifist elements in Japan’s Constitution written by the postwar U.S. military rulers and encouraging Japan’s rearmament, all for the single purpose of containing its new rival, China.

History shows Korea, destined to survive surrounded by far bigger neighbors, thrived when it could successfully maintain its balance on the diplomatic tight rope without veering to one side. The need for diplomatic checks and balances is even greater now, not least because this country is no longer the small player it once was but has grown to be a force hardly negligible economically and otherwise. Needless to say, a unified Korea would enjoy a far bigger and more important status on the global political map. And it is an open secret that one of the last countries that want to see that happen is Japan.

It is against this backdrop that makes the ongoing snafu over Seoul’s secretive and abortive attempts to forge military ties with Tokyo all the more regrettable. It is hard to watch the current chaotic situation within the Lee Myung-bak administration and not ask whether the President and his aides have any sense of historic mission as other Koreans.

The fiasco is simply unthinkable unless it is the joint product of a Japan-born president who is pro-Japan to the bone and his chief diplomatic aide who was awarded by Japan’s rightists for his pro-Japanese traits. What is more egregious about the Korea-Japan military pact is its content and the attempt itself, rather than the process. Again, we urge Lee to scrap the accord and apologize to the people. This is no time to retry its conclusion by sacking the aide, under the pretext of keeping promises between governments. No Koreans allowed them to make such promises.

Domestic misrules, however serious they are, can be settled at home. Diplomatic mistakes cannot. Lee and his diplomatic team can best serve the nation by doing nothing more until their tenures end.

[Housecarl]

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July 7, 2012
China Approaches a Defining Moment
By Rogier Creemers

Of the four Permanent Members of the UN Security Council where the top jobs are up for grabs this year, no transition is as shrouded in secrecy and suspicion as China's upcoming leadership transition. Without even a semblance of popular legitimation, leadership transitions in China can be nasty affairs at the best of times. In the current political and economic climate, the leadership's capacity to keep the Party and State together is becoming stretched. Recently, Bo Xilai, the Party Chief of China's largest city, Chongqing, was publicly ousted in the most high-profile political incident since 1989.

Most importantly, this transition may become a defining moment, 34 years after Deng Xiaoping became paramount leader of the Chinese Party-State having skilfully manoeuvered his way past Hua Guofeng, Mao's hand-picked successor. Although Hua was able to restore a modicum of stability and initiate economic modernization during his brief spell in power, he remained too closely linked to the memory of Maoism to be able to lead China into a phase of economic development. Also, he did not have the personal authority of revolutionary veteran Deng, who commanded tremendous respect from the army, the scientific community and the economic planners. In the next few years, Deng hammered out a model for economic development as well as political stability which largely remains unchanged, and which enabled China to embark on the growth path that has now led it to become the second economy in the world.

Economically, Deng's strategy was based on pragmatism. For starters, Deng legitimized local experiments with market-like incentive mechanisms for agricultural production, phasing out collective agriculture. This led to a boom in food production which liberated millions of hands from the fields. Furthermore, realizing that China was far behind even the Soviet Union, and certainly behind western economies in nearly all aspects of economic activity, Deng supported scientific research at home, while opening China's borders to the world. Investors wanting to profit from the enormous pool of cheap and docile Chinese labour were welcome, but so was their technology. Millions of Chinese students have gone abroad to study, predominantly in scientific and professional fields, and brought this knowledge back to the motherland. Thousands of books and other scientific materials were imported, translated and made available to Chinese scholars.

Politically, Deng's position was complex. Having seen the horror and devastation of the Cultural Revolution up close (Deng's son was paralyzed from the waist down after falling out of a window during his persecution), Deng was determined to ensure that no individual would be able to lead the country into catastrophe again. Ironically, he used his own personal authority to force the Party into accepting collective leadership. He did away with the strict dogmatism and political correctness that reigned during the Maoist era, and introduced intra-Party democracy to some extent. He encouraged discussion about issues to come up with resolutions and ideas. At the same time, however, Deng was clear about the leading position of the Communist Party. His political objective was to consolidate this position through sound governance, rather than lead the Party to pluralisation or democratization. Factionalism would not be tolerated, and neither would organized dissent from outside the Party. This was, of course, most clearly demonstrated in 1989, but echoes earlier moves by Deng to counter calls for political reform in the early Eighties.

Internationally, Deng advocated a low profile. He wanted China to concentrate on economic growth and development, without becoming entangled in the Cold War rivalry between Russia and the United States. Throughout the last four decades, Chinese foreign policy has been aimed at participating in international regimes to obtain technological and legal knowledge, better opportunities for trade, and to make sure China's national interests are safeguarded in international treaties. Wanting to counter increasing concern about China's growing economic and military strength, the concept of peaceful development was launched, based on the idea that China would concentrate on its own international affairs, would not seek international expansion, but would work towards a multipolar world, and keep its borders open for international trade.

The problem facing the Party now is that different aspects of this model seem to be running out of steam. China's economic growth, for example, has been fuelled by export and investment. Enormous quantities of money have been shifted from private wealth, particularly savings, to large, mostly State-owned enterprises, in an effort to cushion the impact of market liberalization. This has avoided the economic catastrophe that happened after the Russian "shock therapy", but also created a new class of officials and SOE managers that grew tremendously wealthy off graft and corruption. As a result, Chinese household wealth remains relatively low, and the nearly non-existent social safety net further reduced incentives to spend. As the ongoing economic malaise in the United States and Europe dampens demand for Chinese products, it is clear that further growth needs to be fuelled by increase in domestic consumption.

Also, China is faced by economic challenges it created itself, in terms of inflationary pressure on commodities, but also matters such as environmental pollution. The voracious appetite of the Chinese economic machine has raised commodity prices across the board, causing inflation inside the country. The increasing use of cars causes traffic gridlock and severe environmental pollution in the larger cities, which themselves grow at breakneck pace. Growing meat consumption is straining Chinese agriculture. The speed at which new infrastructure is constructed, and the concomitant corruption, has led to quality and safety issues. There are significant amounts of bad investments, aimed at artificially boosting GDP numbers and local employment.

Most importantly, maintaining high levels of growth itself is becoming more difficult. While China's double-digit performance is hailed as an economic miracle, it is easy to forget that China started from an extremely low base, which was to no small extent caused by the disastrous economic policies that were implemented between 1949 and 1979. Enormous gains could be made with simple measures, such as permitting farmers to sell some of their surplus produce on open markets, introducing financial incentive systems into enterprises and permitting foreign trade. The establishment of basic legal and regulatory structures went relatively rapidly in the beginning, but there's a difference between recognizing the necessity of a patent system to incentivize innovative activities, and dealing with the enormous technological and legal complexities that operating a patent system in the twenty-first century entails. Also, the external conditions for Chinese growth were beneficial. Particularly after the end of the Cold War, the new impetus for international trade enabled China to grow swiftly through exports to the developed world, which at that time had the capacity to absorb this influx of cheaper goods. Now, China will need new consumers to support further growth of their manufacturing capacity, either at home or abroad. In other words, the low-hanging fruits for China's economic development have been picked, and further economic development will become more arduous and less susceptible to centralized policy-making.

At the same time, the political model advocated by Deng is showing cracks as well. First and foremost, the next generation of leaders will be the first not to have been hand-picked by revolutionary Communists. Hu Jintao's ascendancy was marked as Deng ensured a place for him on the Standing Committee of the Politburo in 1992, as the second youngest member ever. Hu had come to Deng's eye because of his managerial skills, but also his determined actions in putting down an uprising in Tibet, where he was party secretary, a few months before the Tiananmen incident. This new generation lacks that blessing, and the resulting political strife. Second, Deng's model of collective leadership is threatened by economic diversification. In the Nineties it was possible to have the rising tides lift all boats, as the economy was much more homogenous, meaning that simpler policies could have broader effects. Now, economic policymaking, by necessity, is becoming more of a balancing exercise between different interests. China's goal to move up the value chain, for example, is now pushing lower value-added manufacturing into other Asian countries. However, these tend to be labour-intensive industries, and their departure may have a significant impact on employment. Inflation is an ever-present threat, with strong political repercussions in a country where most people rely on personal savings for pensions, in the absence of a stronger social safety net.

As a result, Chinese society is rapidly becoming more pluralized, as far as economic interests go, but this pluralisation is not reflected in politics. The enormous popularity of the recently ousted Bo Xilai, indicates that Chinese citizens might welcome a more open political debate. However, pluralized politics would strike against the very notion of collective leadership. Third, Deng advocated control over the public debate in order to maintain social stability. The Internet, however, has vastly increased the potential for citizens to communicate and organize outside of the official purview, raising the stakes in the control game. The Chinese government itself has spent enormous resources in policing the Internet, but has increasingly made websites and other service providers responsible for content inspection. This in turn greatly inhibits the development of commercial Internet activities, and may be a brake on further economic development. Development is a complex affair, and it may be true that the recipes that brought China to the position where it is now, may effectively be hindering its future path, something that is called the "middle income trap".

This background explains to some extent China's reluctance to take a leading role internationally. The single top priority for the leadership is to shape the international environment in such a way as to enable them to carry out domestic policies. China has no proselytizing international agenda, and does not aim to be a leader in international debates. Neither does it seem to want to be an active participant in global institution building or the establishment of global norms. This is one mistake many observers make: China is not making it a priority to become "more like us". Rather, China has been closely observing developed economies and learning the technical side of how to manage an economy and generate growth, while at the same time maintaining the political core of Leninist Party rule as envisaged by Deng at the end of the Seventies. This doesn't mean that there has been no political reform, but that reforms have been aimed at making the current system work better incrementally, rather than aimed at fundamental systemic change.

In short, China is faced with the necessity of adjusting the way the political system operates, the economy is managed and society is governed. Where it could maintain the political status-quo and grow the economy through catching up with foreign technology, expertise and science, China is now quickly approaching the point where it will need to create new recipes. In the realms of science, technology and economic management, China must generate new ideas and imagine new solutions for the problems that it faces as a country, and work together with the international community to resolve the global questions facing us today, including climate change, resource depletion, pollution, global crime, security, medicine and sustainable development. For a leadership that has been used to working off a well-established political precedent and foreign advanced practices, such boldness may not come naturally. It is not at all clear how the next leadership will deal with these issues, and how the Party will weather the struggles over the leadership transition. Their outcome, however, will be crucial for the future of the entire world.
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Rogier Creemers has degrees in Chinese Studies, International Relations and Law. Presently, he works for the Programme for Comparative Media Law and Policy at the University of Oxford, where he researches the interaction between Chinese media policy and political change.

This article originally appeared in openDemocracy. It is published here under a Creative Commons licence.

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China's Blue-Water Ambitions
More [1]
July 6, 2012
Kailash K. Prasad [2]

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) derives much of its legitimacy from ensuring stellar economic growth. This kind of rapid expansion is resource intensive [3], and those who admire the CCP’s record should not discount the role secure energy supply lines play in maintaining the political status quo—now more than ever, as Beijing’s quest for oil, metal and minerals takes it far from its shores.

As China develops complex economic and strategic interests in Africa and the Middle East, freedom of navigation through the Indian Ocean and much of the Pacific will concern Beijing mightily. But unsurprisingly, there is discomfort with sharing maritime security responsibilities close to home. Considering the relative strength of those patrolling the waters—mainly Japan and the United States—the Chinese fear that in times of crisis, access to critical sea lines of communication could be blocked. Or worse, Beijing might be forced to compromise on its long-held logic of sovereignty [4] over a region that extends far beyond what international law permits [5].

Before it can dominate the seas, China has much catching up to do. The combined weight of twenty-one of the world’s biggest navies is 6.75 million tons [6]. Remove the United States Navy (USN), and that leaves the global fleet 46 percent lighter at about 3.63 million tons. Though not the most accurate gauge of naval prowess, the skewered weight distribution—combined with the USN’s pound-for-pound superiority—cannot bode well for a rising power wary of the status quo.

Unfortunately, what China has to show for three decades of naval modernization are a handful of nuclear-powered attack [7]- and ballistic-missile [8] submarines that lag behind those of the world’s premier navies, an aircraft carrier they’re only beginning to learn how to use and antiship ballistic missiles (ASBM).

Only the ASBM really gives Beijing an edge over the competition. The Pentagon reports the highly maneuverable missile has a range of one thousand miles. Considering even the next generation of naval fighter aircraft will lack the range to return to their carriers if launched further than six hundred miles from their intended target [9], denying potential adversaries access to a significant portion of the Western Pacific looks possible.

But for the near future, blue-water ambitions are likely to remain unfulfilled. A refurbished Soviet-era aircraft carrier, ASBMs and a few unstealthy nuclear submarines won’t allow the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to conduct complex operations far from its shores, even if China’s sailors can master their new boats.

Given the bulk of what the PLAN presently fields, the implications are likely to be felt closer to home. The large fleet of Song, Ming and Romeo class diesel-electric submarines, catamarans, Landing Platform Docks, and other short-range and shore-based weapons will influence the day-to-day choices nearby countries will make—especially whether to align more closely with China or the United States.

China is eager to see its maritime neighbors embrace its naval-modernization effort. Such support is now vital after the apparent loss of Burma as an alternative energy corridor, which has led some in Beijing to question the prudence of banking on vastly expensive and highly tenuous relationships to secure resources.

But if China feels inclined to continue engaging in brinkmanship of the sort seen in the Scarborough shoal standoff [10], most are unlikely to warm to its naval ambitions. As those further away in India and Australia face a more capable PLAN, friendly rhetoric from Beijing will provide little reassurance. Japan and South Korea too would find it better to balance against China’s burgeoning capabilities—instead of hoping military planners in Beijing don’t act on their dissatisfaction with the status quo. Australia has already embarked on the initial stages of a $40 billion revamp [11] of its submarine fleet. India recently took delivery of a Russian Akula class nuclear-powered attack submarine [12] and is also building its own nuclear submarines as well as another aircraft carrier. Japan is enlarging its submarine fleet for the first time in thirty-six years. South Korea also is modernizing its naval and amphibious forces.

The cost of miscalculation here is high, and it is hard to see how such an environment could work in the China’s favor. Ostensibly, a stronger navy should allow Beijing to throw its weight around with greater ease. But if Chinese naval modernization is spurring others in the region to do the same—and if some of its more powerful neighbors look more than capable of playing catch-up—it is difficult to decipher what advantage the PLAN hopes to wield in the long term. Hegemony in the Pacific and Indian Oceans seems unlikely. Anything less could leave Beijing more isolated and vulnerable in a powerful, distrustful backyard.

Kailash K. Prasad is a research associate at the Delhi Policy Group, New Delhi. All views are his own.

Links:
[1] http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?...tionalinterest
[2] http://nationalinterest.org/profile/kailash-k-prasad
[3] http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/busines...t_12627441.htm
[4] http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...073005664.html
[5] http://www.un.org/depts/los/conventi...s/unclos_e.pdf
[6] http://www.csbaonline.org/4Publicati...avy_Charti.pdf
[7] http://www.sinodefence.com/navy/sub/type093shang.asp
[8] http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/wo...na/type_94.htm
[9] http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...acific-pacific
[10] http://nationalinterest.org/commenta...china-sea-6831
[11] http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nati...-1226345520888
[12] http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/12526102.cms
[13] http://nationalinterest.org/topic/security/defense
[14] http://nationalinterest.org/topic/se...grand-strategy
[15] http://nationalinterest.org/topic/se...itary-strategy
[16] http://nationalinterest.org/topic/se.../rising-powers
[17] http://nationalinterest.org/topic/se...f-the-military
[18] http://nationalinterest.org/topic/security/wmd
[19] http://nationalinterest.org/region/oceania/australia
[20] http://nationalinterest.org/region/a...ast-asia/china
[21] http://nationalinterest.org/region/a...ast-asia/japan
[22] http://nationalinterest.org/region/a...uth-asia/india
[23] http://nationalinterest.org/region/a...ia/south-korea
[24] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/orga...arty-%28ccp%29
[25] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/blue-water-navy
[26] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/subm...tion-army-navy

[Housecarl]

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Facts about key parties in Libya’s election
July 07, 2012|The Associated Press

Libyans went to the polls Saturday in the country’s first free national election since the toppling of longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi last year. Voters are electing a 200-member assembly whose first task will be naming a new government. Here are some details about the key parties vying for seats:

THE JUSTICE AND CONSTRUCTION PARTY (ISLAMIST):

This is the main political arm of Libya’s Muslim Brotherhood, though party leaders have tried to distance themselves from the Brotherhood name by saying the party is only co-founded by some of the group’s Islamists. High-level members of the party include non-Brotherhood people.

The party is led by Mohammed Sawan, who spent eight years in prison under Gadhafi because of his affiliation with the Brotherhood. He is also a former member of the Brotherhood’s top decision-making council in Libya.

The party’s leaders have also said that it is independent from other Brotherhood groups in the region, including in Egypt, where a Brotherhood candidate was recently sworn in as president.

In its political platform, the party calls for “abiding by the principles of Islam’’ and believes that Islamic Sharia law should be the main source of legislation.

THE ALLIANCE OF NATIONAL FORCES (LIBERAL):

The group is a liberal coalition of 40 political parties, 236 NGOs and 280 independent figures.

The coalition is led by Mahmoud Jibril, who was a senior official and economist under Gadhafi’s regime until he joined sides with the uprising, serving as the rebels’ interim prime minister for almost eight months. He enjoys the support of one of the country’s largest tribes, the Warfala. Jibril himself cannot run on the ballot because election laws prevent members of the interim National Transitional Council from running.

In its political platform, the alliance states that Islamic Sharia law should be the main source of legislation, but adds that the state must respect all religions and sects, including religious rituals of foreigners living in Libya.

THE AL-WATAN PARTY, also known as THE NATION PARTY (ISLAMIST):

The party was founded by ex-Jihadist and former rebel commander Abdel-Hakim Belhaj and ultraconservative Muslim leader Ali al-Salab, a leading figure among Libya’s ultraconservative Salafis.

Al-Salab is believed to be affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood and helped mediate the release of Belhaj from prison a year before the revolution. Belhaj had been imprisoned under Gadhafi for being a leader of the militant Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, which led an insurgency against Gadhafi’s regime in the mid-1990s.

Opponents say the party is partly funded by the Arab Gulf country of Qatar. Party members deny the accusation and say all their funding is from Libyans.

The party’s platform is very similar to that of the Justice and Construction party.

THE CENTRIST NATIONAL PARTY (SECULAR):

A liberal party led by Ali Tarhouni, a former professor in the United States and later oil and finance minister under the transitional government who enjoys a good reputation for having had no ties to the Gadhafi regime.

The party is one of the few whose platform makes no reference to Islamic Sharia law and only identifies Libya as a moderate Muslim country.

THE NATIONAL FRONT PARTY:

The party is an offshoot of the National Front for the Salvation of Libya, which included a mix of Islamists and secularists who were part of the armed opposition that for decades carried out assassination attempts against Gadhafi, including the famous 1984 attack on Bab al-Aziziyah, the late dictator’s fortified compound in Tripoli.

The regime cracked down on the group, executing and arresting many of its members. Many sought exile and worked in political activism against Gadhafi from abroad. The movement organized the first Libyan opposition conference abroad in London and called for toppling Gadhafi’s regime several years ago.

The party is headed by Mohammed al-Magarif, a well-respected Libyan nationalist and former opposition leader.

The party sees Islam as a broad guideline to the state’s affairs, but does not mention the implementation of Islamic Sharia law.

[Housecarl]

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Bloomberg News
Thousands Protest Alleged Mexico Election Fraud
By Eric Martin on July 08, 2012

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Tens of thousands of Mexicans marched in the capital yesterday to protest alleged fraud and vote-buying in the country’s July 1 presidential election.

Beating drums and waving flags, the protesters chanted “Out Pena,” in reference to Enrique Pena Nieto, whose victory restored the once-dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, to power after a 12-year hiatus.

Runner-up Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, while denying he was behind the marches, which he said was a citizens’ movement, repeated a call he’s made almost daily since the July 1 vote for a full probe of alleged vote-buying by the PRI. A recount of more than half of 50.3 million ballots cast was completed July 6, giving Pena Nieto 38.2 percent compared with 31.6 percent for Lopez Obrador.

“The results were manipulated and showed lots of vote buying,” Citlalli Avila Espinoza, a 46-year-old graphic artist who was among the protesters marching peacefully along the busy Paseo de la Reforma, said in an interview. “We want in a peaceful manner to repudiate these results.”

Allegations that the PRI handed out bank cards, groceries and other gifts in exchange for votes are reviving Mexicans’ concerns that Pena Nieto will be tolerant of corruption that marked the PRI’s previous 71-year-rule until 2000.

Many of yesterday’s protesters were members of the anti-PRI movement formed by students on the Internet in the run-up to the election.

Lopez Obrador, 58, hasn’t repeated his call from six years ago for supporters to take to the streets, saying that he’s evaluating the election day by day and will pursue his complaints through legal means. The former Mexico City mayor said he’ll next address the media tomorrow at 8 a.m. local time.

After losing the 2006 race to President Felipe Calderon by less than a percentage point, Lopez Obrador’s supporters occupied Mexico City’s central plaza and main business avenue for weeks with encampments.
Chavez Congratulations

In what may be a bellwether for Lopez Obrador’s ability to protest the election, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who six years ago backed him and didn’t recognize Calderon’s victory for months, yesterday congratulated the 45-year-old Pena Nieto.

Chavez “reiterated Venezuela’s will to work with Mexico in deepening bilateral cooperation in the union of our peoples,” Venezuela’s information ministry said yesterday in an e-mailed statement.

The ruling National Action Party, or PAN, whose candidate finished third, has also accused the PRI of fraud and vote buying. Still, unlike Lopez Obrador, who has refused to concede defeat, the PAN recognized the PRI’s victory as irreversible.

Pena Nieto’s campaign said in an e-mailed statement that the candidate acknowledges “the right of other parties and candidates to resort to legal actions to resolve any doubts that arise, but the transparency of the electoral process and the support of Mexican society” for the campaign are “indisputable.”

Gift-giving is widespread in Mexican elections, is only considered illegal if made in exchange for promises of a vote and can’t be used to justify throwing out results.

To contact the reporter on this story: Eric Martin in Mexico City at emartin21@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Joshua Goodman at jgoodman19@bloomberg.net

[Housecarl]

Hummm....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/c...7361805.column

The arms race that won't happen
Iran and the phony proliferation scare

Steve Chapman

July 8, 2012

If you want to understand the intensifying showdown between the United States and Iran, consider the headline in The Washington Post on the threat of rapid nuclear proliferation: "Many nations ready to break into nuclear club."

It highlights one of the dangers cited by those who favor military action against Iran. President Barack Obama says that if Iran gets the bomb, "other players in the region would feel it necessary to get their own nuclear weapons. So now you have the prospect of a nuclear arms race in the most volatile region in the world."

A plausible threat? It may sound that way. But it also sounded that way in 1981 — when that Washington Post story ran.

Steve Chapman
Steve Chapman
Bio | E-mail | Recent columns


Nuclear proliferation is always said to be on the verge of suddenly accelerating, and somehow it never does. In 1981, there were five declared nuclear powers — the U.S., the Soviet Union, China, Britain and France — as well as Israel, which was (and is) undeclared.

And today? The number of members added since then is not 15 but three: India, Pakistan and North Korea. Most of the other countries on the list of likely proliferators never came close — including Argentina, Chile, Morocco and Tunisia. Iraq tried and failed. Libya made an effort and then chose to give up.

The peril was greatly overblown. It probably is again. But our leaders are not about to let mere history debunk the apocalyptic scenarios. They are committed to a policy based on fear rather than experience.

The United States keeps trying to force Iran to abandon its suspected efforts to build a nuclear arsenal, and so far it has been rebuffed. Both Obama and Mitt Romney have said they would use force rather than let Iran acquire nukes. Chances are good that whoever wins in November, we will be at war with Tehran sometime in the next four years.

But there is no reason to think Iran would ever use such weapons, and there is little reason to think it would spur other countries to get them. If all it takes to unleash regional proliferation is one fearsome state with nukes, the Middle East would have gone through it already — since Israel has had them for decades.

Why would governments in the region respond differently to Iran? Many of them are allied with the U.S. — which means Iran can't attack or threaten them without fear of overwhelming retaliation. Turkey, as a member of NATO, enjoys a formal defense guarantee from Washington. The U.S. might offer similar assurances to Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other nervous neighbors.

One way or another, they would probably find they can manage fine. Iran is no scarier than Mao's China was in 1964, when it detonated its first atomic device. Writes Francis Gavin, a professor at the Lyndon B. JohnsonSchool of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin, "It was predicted that India, Indonesia and Japan might follow."

At the time, he noted in a 2009 article in International Security, "a U.S. government document identified 'at least 11 nations (India, Japan, Israel, Sweden, West Germany, Italy, Canada, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Rumania and Yugoslavia)' with the capacity to go nuclear, a number that would soon 'grow substantially' to include 'South Africa, the United Arab Republic, Spain, Brazil and Mexico.'" Mexico?

In recent decades, some countries have actually given up their nukes — including Ukraine and South Africa. Others, like Brazil and Sweden, have scrapped their weapons programs. After the Cold War, it was assumed the newly reunified Germany would want to assert its new status by joining the nuclear club. It has yet to exhibit a glimmer of interest.

A nuclear Iran would soon learn something previous nuclear powers already know: These weapons are not much use except to deter nuclear attack. What help have they been for the U.S. in Iraq or Afghanistan?

China invaded Vietnam in 1979 to force the enemy's withdrawal from Cambodia. The Vietnamese not only refused but sent the People's Liberation Army home with its tail between its legs. China regards Taiwan as part of its territory, but the island has remained functionally independent despite the threat of nuclear coercion.

If Iran does get nukes, its neighbors that have survived without them will find that nothing much has changed. Nuclear proliferation is the danger that lurks just over the horizon, and that's where it is likely to stay.

Steve Chapman is a member of the Tribune's editorial board and blogs at chicagotribune.com/chapman.

schapman@tribune.com

Twitter @SteveChapman13

Copyright © 2012, Chicago Tribune

[Housecarl]

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Iraq Suicide Bomber Kills 7 Of His Own Family
By SAMEER N. YACOUB 07/07/12 04:58 AM ET

BAGHDAD -- A suicide bomber detonated an explosives-rigged belt at a gathering of his own family in western Iraq, killing his pro-government cousin and six other relatives, officials said Saturday.

The blast targeting a leader in the Sahwa militias in the city of Ramadi is a reminder of how extremism still divides Iraq's Sunni Muslim minority, with some working with al-Qaida-linked insurgents against others who support the Shiite-led government.

The killing is part of a surge in violence six months after the last American troops withdrew.

The bomber entered the home of his cousin, the local Sahwa leader, on Friday night as the extended family was gathered for a meal, said a police official in Ramadi, the capital of Anbar province, 115 kilometers (70 miles) west of Baghdad.

He approached the militiaman and detonated his explosives, killing his target as well as his wife, three of their teenage children, his brother and another relative, said the official. He could provide no other details including the number of wounded.

A hospital worker in Ramadi confirmed the deaths. Both officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to release the information.

Anbar is the province where Sunni tribes first revolted against al-Qaida in late 2006 and 2007, joining U.S. troops to fight the insurgency.

The movement was called Sahwa, or Awakening, and helped turned the tide of the war, although deadly attacks remain a grim fact of life for Iraqis. The Sahwa militia members are a favorite target of the Sunni insurgency, which sees them as traitors.

The last American troops left Iraq on Dec. 18, nearly nine years after leading an invasion to oust dictator Saddam Hussein. Immediately after the withdrawal, al-Qaida unleashed a bloody wave of bombings and targeted killings.

Attacks had slightly decreased since January, but starting in early June, major bombings have come at a rate of every few days instead of every few weeks, killing at least 300 people.

The sustained level of attacks suggests the insurgents are emboldened by Iraq's protracted political crisis, which pits Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki against Sunni, Kurd and rival Shiite politicians who say they are being sidelined.

Experts say the crisis in neighboring Syria may also be fanning the Iraqi insurgency, as some weapons intended for rebels fighting forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad could be falling into the hands of Iraqi militants as they cross the country.

[The Flying Dutchman]

=

Iranian military holding aerial defense drill

Published: 07.08.12, 15:16 / Israel News
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...252724,00.html

The Iranian military launched an aerial defense drill in the north-west of the country the Fars news agency reported.

During the three day drill the Iranians will practice defensive tactics against foreign planes attempting to infiltrate the country. (Dudi Cohen)







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[The Flying Dutchman]

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US sends reinforcements
to Gulf amid Iran tensions

By REUTERS
07/07/2012 18:25
http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/N...aspx?id=276589

DUBAI - A US navy ship that had been slated for decommissioning has been sent instead to the Gulf to help mine-clearing operations, the US Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain said, the latest move in a gradual US build-up as tensions with Iran smoulder.

A fleet spokesman in Manama said the USS Ponce, described as an "afloat forward staging base" (AFSB), had arrived on Thursday after undergoing refitting for its new mission.

"Ponce's primary mission is to support mine countermeasures operations and other missions, such as the ability to provide repair service to other deployed units," the spokesman said in a statement. "Additionally, Ponce also has the capability to embark and launch small riverine craft."

Vice Admiral John Miller, commander of regional navy forces, said the Ponce boasted "enhanced capability to conduct maritime security operations, and gives us greater flexibility to support a wide range of contingencies with our regional partners".

Four US minesweepers arrived in the Gulf last month to bolster the Fifth Fleet and ensure the safety of shipping routes in a waterway through which 40 percent of the world's seaborne oil exports flow.

They arrived amid a flaring war of nerves between the United States and Iran over Tehran's disputed nuclear energy program and Iranian threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, the slender oil shipping channel out of the Gulf, in retaliation for a new European Union ban on its oil exports.

The four minesweepers were ticketed for a seven-month deployment in an area of operations that includes the Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Red Sea and parts of the Indian Ocean.

Tensions have simmered in the Gulf with big-power diplomacy to ease the nuclear dispute at an impasse and Israel renewing veiled threats to attack Iranian atomic sites from the air if sanctions and negotiations fail to curb Iran's nuclear advances.

A string of hawkish Iranian statements - including a renewed threat to close the Strait and destroy US bases in the region "within minutes" of an attack - over the past week helped thrust benchmark Brent crude oil prices above $100 for the first time since June.

Iran has repeatedly warned of reprisals for any Israeli or US-led strike on its nuclear installations, whose activities it says are purely peaceful but the West suspects are geared to developing the means to produce nuclear arms.







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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Syria military conducts
large-scale exercises

ALBERT AJI, Associated Press,
ZEINA KARAM, Associated Press
Updated 05:51 a.m., Sunday, July 8, 2012
http://www.chron.com/news/article/Sy...es-3691288.php

DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) — Syria's military began large-scale exercises simulating defense against outside "aggression," the state-run news agency said Sunday — an apparent warning to other countries not to intervene in the country's crisis.

The exercise began Saturday with naval forces in a scenario where they repelled an attack from the sea, and will include air and ground forces over the next few days, SANA agency said. State TV broadcast footage of missiles being fired from launch vehicles and warships.

Some in the Syrian opposition have appealed to the West for foreign forces to step in to stop bloodshed that they say has left more than 14,000 dead since an uprising against President Bashar Assad began in March 2011. So far, the West has shown little appetite to intervene.

Special U.N. envoy Kofi Annan acknowledged in an interview published Saturday that the international community's efforts to find a political solution to the escalating violence in Syria have failed.

"The evidence shows that we have not succeeded," he told the French daily Le Monde.

Annan, the special envoy for the United Nations and the Arab League, is the architect of the most prominent international plan to end the crisis in Syria.

His six-point plan was to begin with a cease-fire in mid-April between government forces and rebels seeking to topple Assad. But the truce never took hold, and now the almost 300 U.N. observers sent to monitor the cease-fire are confined to their hotels because of the escalating violence.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Sunday that time is running out on Syrian peace hopes and warned that the Syrian state could collapse.

Speaking in Japan, Clinton said Annan's acknowledgement that his peace plan is failing "should be a wake-up call for everyone."

She said last month was the deadliest for the Syrian people in the 16-month revolt, but added that the opposition "is getting more effective in defense of themselves and going on the offensive against the Syrian military."

Defense Minister Dawood Rajiha attended the maneuvers and praised the "exceptional performance" of the naval forces which showed "a high level of combat training and ability to defend Syria's shores against any possible aggression."

"The navy carried out the training successfully, repelling the hypothetical attack and striking at given targets with high precision," the report said.







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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Iran will close Hormuz access
if 'serious trouble' develops

Iran: 4 hours, 25 minutes ago
http://www.ameinfo.com/iran-close-ho...trouble-305821

Iranian armed forces chief of staff Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi has said his country will close the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the entrance to the oil-rich Gulf only if its crude revenues are seriously threatened, AFP has reported.

"We have plans to close the Strait of Hormuz because military commanders must have plans for any situation," he said. "But Iran, acting rationally, will not close the corridor through which 40% of the world's energy passes, unless its interests are in serious trouble," he said, referring to the country's crucial crude revenues.





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[The Flying Dutchman]

=

08/07/2012 Register

Iran recalibrates ‘Hormuz threat’

‘Choke point’ targeted
http://www.arabtimesonline.com/NewsD...9/Default.aspx

TEHRAN, July 7, (Agencies): Iran will close the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the entrance to the oil-rich Gulf only if its crude revenues are seriously threatened, its top military commander said in remarks reported on Saturday.

“We have plans to close the Strait of Hormuz because military commanders must have plans for any situation,” armed forces Chief of Staff General Hassan Firouzabadi said late on Friday, according to ISNA news agency.

“But Iran, acting rationally, will not close the corridor through which 40 percent of the world’s energy passes, unless its interests are in serious trouble,” he said, referring to the country’s crucial crude revenues.
Several commanders and officials have vowed that Iran reserves as an option closing the strait — a strategic choke point for much of the Middle East’s oil — if its nuclear facilities are targeted by military strikes.

The threats, renewed repeatedly since December, have generated warnings from the United States, which says any attempt by Iran to close the waterway is a “red line” that would trigger a US military reaction.

“What my colleagues say regarding (the closing of the strait) echo missions assigned to them,” Firouzabadi told the Khorasan daily.

But, he explained, “the order to carry out the mission will only come from a decision by the Supreme National Security Council and approved by Supreme Leader” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has final say on all state matters.

Firouzabadi said statements by military commanders would not affect any decision to close the passage of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

Such threats have regularly caused hikes in oil prices across the globe.

Experts believe Iran, which exports all of its oil from its terminals in the Gulf, would be the first victim of any disruption of crude through the channel.

The issue gained momentum this week as more than third of lawmakers in Iran’s parliament backed a bill calling for the waterway to be closed to oil tankers headed to Europe, as retaliation for a European Union embargo on Iranian crude that came into effect on July 1.

The EU measure is the latest of a raft of international sanctions designed to pressure Iran to curb its nuclear ambitions, which the West suspects mask military objective despite Tehran’s repeated assertions of seeking only the civilian applications of the technology.

The bill echoed a December warning by Iran’s first vice president, Mohammad Reza Rahimi, that the Islamic republic would close the strait if its crucial oil revenues are affected by Western sanctions.

His warning was then followed by naval manoeuvres of the elite Revolutionary Guards practising shutting the waterway in January.

The US has also moved new forces into the Gulf to support anti-mine operations in the Gulf to keep the strategic waterway open, the US Navy said Friday.

Iran has also warned it will respond to any military strikes against its atomic facilities.

The United States and Israel say “all options” remain on the table if talks aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear activities, condemned in four sets of sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council, fail.

World powers and Iran revived negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear programme this year, but seem to have reached an impasse after three rounds of talks, as differences in the negotiating positions of the two sides remains significant.

Mine-clearing

A US navy ship that had been slated for decommissioning has been sent instead to the Gulf to help mine-clearing operations, the US Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain said, the latest move in a gradual US build-up as tensions with Iran smoulder.

A fleet spokesman in Manama said the USS Ponce, described as a “afloat forward staging base” (AFSB), had arrived on Thursday after undergoing refitting for its new mission.

“Ponce’s primary mission is to support mine countermeasures operations and other missions, such as the ability to provide repair service to other deployed units,” the spokesman said in a statement. “Additionally, Ponce also has the capability to embark and launch small riverine craft.”

Vice Admiral John Miller, commander of regional navy forces, said the Ponce boasted “enhanced capability to conduct maritime security operations, and gives us greater flexibility to support a wide range of contingencies with our regional partners”.

Four US minesweepers arrived in the Gulf last month to bolster the Fifth Fleet and ensure the safety of shipping routes in a waterway through which 40 percent of the world’s seaborne oil exports flow.

They arrived amid a flaring war of nerves between the United States and Iran over Tehran’s disputed nuclear energy programme and Iranian threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, the slender oil shipping channel out of the Gulf, in retaliation for a new European Union ban on its oil exports.

The four minesweepers were ticketed for a seven-month deployment in an area of operations that includes the Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Red Sea and parts of the Indian Ocean.

Tensions have simmered in the Gulf with big-power diplomacy to ease the nuclear dispute at an impasse and Israel renewing veiled threats to attack Iranian atomic sites from the air if sanctions and negotiations fail to curb Iran’s nuclear advances.

A string of hawkish Iranian statements — including a renewed threat to close the Strait and destroy US bases in the region “within minutes” of an attack — over the past week helped thrust benchmark Brent crude oil prices above $100 for the first time since June.

Iran has repeatedly warned of reprisals for any Israeli or US-led strike on its nuclear installations, whose activities it says are purely peaceful but the West suspects are geared to developing the means to produce nuclear arms.






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[The Flying Dutchman]

=

Sunday, July 08, 2012, Shaban 17, 1433

Iran plans to sell oil via consortium

http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=163899

Dubai—Iran has reached agreements with European refiners to sell some of its oil through a private consortium, an official said on Saturday, a move designed to circumvent sanctions intended to put pressure on Tehran to halt its disputed nuclear program. The head of the oil products exporters’ union said the agreement between the exporters’ union, Iran’s central bank, and the oil ministry would get round a European Union ban on shipping insurance for tankers carrying Iranian oil, though he gave few details and did not name the refiners involved.

The EU put into effect a ban on the importation, purchase, or shipping of Iranian oil on July 1, and the Islamic Republic will see its oil exports fall by more than 50 percent this month from last year’s regular levels, costing it billions of dollars a month in revenue.

“There have been discussions with European refiners, and a final agreement has even been reached,” said Hassan Khosrojerdi, the exporters’ union head, according to Iran’s Mehr News Agency.

“In accordance with the agreement, it is planned that 20 percent of Iran’s oil exports will go through this private consortium.” He added: “It is likely that because of international restrictions, we will give minor privileges or discounts to some of the buyers of our oil.”

Khosrojerdi did not say which refiners were involved or how they would receive the oil. Asked what steps had been taken to circumvent the shipping insurance ban, he said only “With the agreement with some of the European refiners, this problem has been solved completely.”—Reuters






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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Russian official urges Moscow to deliver
S-300 air defense missiles to Iran

8 July 2012, 03:33 (GMT+05:00)
http://en.trend.az/regions/iran/2044746.html

Chairman of the Russian Defense Ministry's Public Council Igor Korotchenko has called on Moscow to fulfill its contractual obligations to Tehran and deliver S-300 air defense missiles to Iran, MNA reported.

In an interview with Russia's state-run RIA Novosti news agency on Thursday, Korotchenko urged Russia to sell the S-300 defense system to Iran, arguing that the move does not run counter to any UN mandates.

Korotchenko added that Iran and Russia share a lot of common positions on international developments and argued that the delivery of the S-300 defense systems to Iran will be a "logical step" for maintaining Moscow's geopolitical interests in the region.






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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Iran will run 3 days of drills
in North-West tomorrow

15:29 07 LUG 2012
http://www.agi.it/english-version/wo..._west_tomorrow

(AGI) Tehran - Starting tomorrow, Iran's Air Force will run 3 days of military drills in the North-West of the Country .

The news was disclosed by General Ali Reza Sabahifard, Deputy Commander of the Jatam al Anbia base. Quoted by the Fars press agency, the General explained that the drills will involve an area of 50,000 square kilometers in which tests will be run on radars, missiles, communications systems, electronic warfare material and anti-aircraft artillery. The drills will also involve civilian defence systems. .






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[The Flying Dutchman]

=

July 8, 2012 8:10 AM

Clinton on Syria:
Sand running out of the hourglass

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-...the-hourglass/

(CBS/AP) U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Sunday that time is running out on Syrian peace hopes and warned that the Syrian state could collapse.

Speaking in Japan, Clinton said Annan's acknowledgement that his peace plan is failing "should be a wake-up call for everyone."

She said last month was the deadliest for the Syrian people in the 16-month revolt, but added that the opposition "is getting more effective in defense of themselves and going on the offensive against the Syrian military."

"The sooner there can be an end to the violence and a beginning of a political transition process, not only will fewer people die, but there is a chance to save the Syrian state from a catastrophic assault that would be very dangerous not only to Syria but to the region," Clinton said.

She said that for those who continue to support the regime of President Bashar Assad, the future "should be abundantly clear: ... The sand is running out of the hourglass."

Clinton: "Friends of Syria" must unite to stop Russia, China "blockading" progress

Special U.N. envoy Kofi Annan acknowledged in an interview published Saturday that the international community's efforts to find a political solution to the escalating violence in Syria have failed.

"The evidence shows that we have not succeeded," he told the French daily Le Monde.

Annan, the special envoy for the United Nations and the Arab League, is the architect of the most prominent international plan to end the crisis in Syria.

His six-point plan was to begin with a cease-fire in mid-April between government forces and rebels seeking to topple Assad. But the truce never took hold, and now the almost 300 U.N. observers sent to monitor the cease-fire are confined to their hotels because of the escalating violence.

In Syria, the military began large-scale exercises simulating defense against outside "aggression," the state-run news agency said Sunday — an apparent warning to other countries not to intervene in the country's crisis.

The exercise began Saturday with naval forces in a scenario where they repelled an attack from the sea, and will include air and ground forces over the next few days, SANA agency said. State TV broadcast footage of missiles being fired from launch vehicles and warships.

Some in the Syrian opposition have appealed to the West for foreign forces to step in to stop bloodshed that they say has left more than 14,000 dead since an uprising against Assad began in March 2011. So far, the West has shown little appetite to intervene.

Defense Minister Dawood Rajiha attended the maneuvers and praised the "exceptional performance" of the naval forces which showed "a high level of combat training and ability to defend Syria's shores against any possible aggression."

"The navy carried out the training successfully, repelling the hypothetical attack and striking at given targets with high precision," the report said.






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Syria Makes Show of Force to Deter Intervention

Sunday, 08 July 2012 16:04
by TOLOnews.com
http://tolonews.com/en/world/6795-sy...r-intervention

Syria's military began large-scale exercises on Saturday simulating defense in an apparent attempt to warn other countries from intervening in its crisis, the Associated Press reported Sunday.

The AP report quoted the state-run news agency SANA saying the exercises began with naval forces in a scenario where they repelled an attack from the sea, and will include air and ground forces over the next few days. State TV broadcast footage of missiles being fired from launch vehicles and warships.

Appeals from some Syrians for the West to intervene has seemingly proved futile with the West's attempts at a political solution failing each time.

The violent crackdown on the uprising against President Bashar Assad since March 2011 is estimated to have killed more than 14,000 people, Last month was the deadliest for the Syrian people in the 16-month revolt.

Special UN envoy Kofi Annan told French newspaper Le Monde on Saturday that the international community's efforts to find a political solution have failed.

"The evidence shows that we have not succeeded," Annan said.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned Sunday that Annan's statement of the failed peace place "should be a wake-up call for everyone."

Speaking from the Tokyo conference on Afghanistan, Clinton said that time is running out for Syrian peace and that the state may collapse, but added that the government resistance groups are "getting more effective in defense of themselves and going on the offensive against the Syrian military."






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Assad military conducts large-scale
exercises as fighting spills into Lebanon

8 July 2012 / AP/REUTERS, DAMASCUS
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-2859...o-lebanon.html

Assad's military began large-scale exercises simulating defense against outside “aggression,” the state-run news agency said Sunday -- an apparent warning to other countries not to intervene in the Syrian crisis.

On Saturday, the Syrian conflict spilled further into Lebanon when mortar fire from President Bashar al-Assad's forces hit villages in the north, killing five people after rebels crossed the border to seek refuge, residents said. Rebels fighting to unseat Assad have used north Lebanon as a base and his forces have at times bombed villages and even pursued insurgents over the border, threatening to stoke tension in Lebanon, whose sectarian divisions mirror those in Syria.

The war games began on Saturday with naval forces in a scenario where they repelled an attack from the sea, and will include air and ground forces over the next few days, SANA agency said. State TV broadcast footage of missiles being fired from launch vehicles and warships.

Some in the Syrian opposition have appealed to the West for foreign forces to step in to stop bloodshed that they say has left more than 14,000 dead since an uprising against Assad began in March 2011. So far, the West has shown little appetite to intervene.

Special UN envoy Kofi Annan acknowledged in an interview published Saturday that the international community's efforts to find a political solution to the escalating violence in Syria have failed.

“The evidence shows that we have not succeeded,” he told the French daily Le Monde.

Annan, the special envoy for the United Nations and the Arab League, is the architect of the most prominent international plan to end the crisis in Syria.

His six-point plan was to begin with a cease-fire in mid-April between government forces and rebels seeking to topple Assad. But the truce never took hold, and now the almost 300 UN observers sent to monitor the cease-fire are confined to their hotels because of the escalating violence.

US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Sunday that time is running out on Syrian peace hopes and warned that the Syrian state could collapse.

Speaking in Japan, Clinton said Annan's acknowledgement that his peace plan is failing “should be a wake-up call for everyone.”

She said last month was the deadliest for the Syrian people in the 16-month revolt, but added that the opposition “is getting more effective in defense of themselves and going on the offensive against the Syrian military.”

Defense Minister Dawood Rajiha attended the maneuvers and praised the “exceptional performance” of the naval forces which showed “a high level of combat training and ability to defend Syria's shores against any possible aggression.”

“The navy carried out the training successfully, repelling the hypothetical attack and striking at given targets with high precision,” the report said.

Fighting spills into Lebanon, five killed

Residents of Lebanon's Wadi Khaled region said several mortar bombs hit farm buildings five to 20 kilometers (3 to 12 miles) from the border at around 2 a.m. At midday villagers reported more explosions and said they heard gunfire close to the border.

In the village of al-Mahatta, a house was destroyed, killing a 16-year-old girl and wounding a two-year old and a four-year old, family members told Reuters. A 25-year-old woman and a man were killed in nearby villages, residents said.

Two Bedouins were killed in the village of Hishe, which straddles a river demarcating the border, when two rocket-propelled grenades fired from within Syria hit their tent, according to local residents.

Lebanon's army confirmed one of the deaths and said several Syrian shells had landed in Lebanese territory, but had no further information. Lebanese President Michel Suleiman issued a statement regretting the deaths and promising an investigation.

Syria's bloodshed has also encroached on the territory of Turkey, a much bigger and more militarily powerful neighbor. Ankara, a former Assad friend turned foe, reinforced its frontier and scrambled fighter aircraft several times after Syria shot down a Turkish reconnaissance jet on June 22.

The diplomatic stalemate that has frustrated international efforts to bring about a peaceful transition in Syria persisted on Saturday as China joined Russia in rejecting a US accusation that Beijing and Moscow were obstacles to a solution.

In Syria, the army bombarded towns across northern Aleppo province on Saturday in a concerted effort to root out the opposition fighters who have taken control of some areas, the anti-government Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

“The bombing is the heaviest since the start of military operations in rural Aleppo in an attempt to control the region after regular Syrian army forces suffered heavy losses over the past few months,” the British-based activist group reported.

It said three people had died, including two opposition fighters.






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Lebanese ready to fight next to Syrian 'brothers'

By Antonio Pampliega
AFP – 1 hour 17 minutes ago.. .
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/lebanese-re...120141942.html

About 20 armed men enter a dilapidated barn in northeastern Lebanon, preparing to sneak across the border and fight alongside their Syrian "brothers" against the regime in Damascus.

The young men decide to rest briefly at the farm near Al-Qaa in the Bekaa Valley, their arms and baggage placed against a wall.

The volunteers aim is to join the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA), which is made up mostly of Syrian army deserters.

Reclining on mattresses on the ground, they dip bread into tins of sardines or tuna, their evening meal.

"We will cross the border to go to Idlib (in northwest Syria). The FSA is trying to retake the city and needs all the help it can get. Let's go for it," says Abdel Hakim says in decent English.

Like his comrades, the young man from the Baalbek region has dropped everything to go fight in Syria. For security reasons, they choose not to reveal their full identities.

"I worked in a mobile phone shop and with my savings I bought an old Kalashnikov on the black market and 10 magazines," Bilal says with a grin.

"This is the first time I leave Lebanon and it's to fight in Syria. I'm afraid when I see the images on TV but I'm prepared to die if God wills. For my family, it would be a honour if I became a martyr of the Syrian revolution," Bilal says.

"They are our brothers. We must rush to their help," he says.

"I live in a village controlled by (the pro-Syrian Shiite movement) Hezbollah. There, everyone supports President (Bashar al-) Assad and if you say otherwise you can get into a lot of trouble," Bilal says.

He says the authorities in Lebanon have sided with Assad's regime.

"Lebanon plays an important role in what is happening in Syria. It closes its border and pursues those who support the FSA, while Shiite militiamen cross freely to fight alongside the regime. It's time to balance things out."

The most outwardly religious of the group, Osama Salem, spells out his goal.

"We are going to Syria to carry out jihad (holy war) with our Syrian brothers and overthrow the tyrant Assad ... Since the international community has chosen to do nothing ... it must be Muslims themselves who solve the problem."

He fingers his prayer beads while listening to the Koran on his mobile.

"You tell me that it's Al-Qaeda or Islamic fundamentalist groups fighting in Syria ... If they are, it's only your (the West's) fault for allowing Bashar al-Assad to stay in power by killing people," he says, stroking his beard.

Some young Syrians are also in the group. They live in the border area of Arsal, where they have fled in past months.

"Every Syrian family living in the region of Arsal has one or two members fighting for the FSA," says Zaid, explaining that families finance the purchase of weapons on the black market.

"We buy weapons from the soldiers of Bashar al-Assad. We buy assault rifles, grenades, RPGs, but now we need heavy weapons and missiles to destroy tanks and helicopters," he says.

"A Kalashnikov is good for killing people, but it is useless against an armoured vehicle," he says coldly.

"Here, nobody helps us. Neither Qatar nor Saudi Arabia give us money to buy weapons or ammunition. They help us by giving food," he says, referring to Assad's most outspoken Arab opponents.

International envoy Kofi Annan acknowledged the failure so far of his mission to bring peace to Syria, as more than 60 people were killed in violence on Saturday that also spilled over into Lebanon.






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Conflict in Syria Divides Golan Heights Communities

CTVNews.ca Staff
Published Saturday, Jul. 7, 2012 10:10PM EDT
Last Updated Sunday, Jul. 8, 2012 6:57AM EDT
http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/conflict...ities-1.870206

As much as Syria has been divided by conflict in the last year, so has the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, a place where people still consider themselves Syrians.

The Israeli army captured the strategic land mass that overlooks southern Syria during the 1967 Six-Day War and its border with that country remains tightly controlled.

The violence in Syria is closely watched by residents here, with many televisions tuned to Syrian television stations for the latest news.

Many people living along the Golan still have relatives in Syria, so emotions run high.

There are even rallies on the Israeli-controlled side of the border supporting Syrian President Bashar Assad in communities like the Druze town of Majdal Shams.

“Assad is well educated,” Hassan Baradin says in Arabic. “Good for Syria.”

Another Assad supporter, Nahi Abusaleh, says Assad is killing people to defend himself and it’s the others (opposition) who are doing the killing.

“We will never be against him.”

One man shouted in Arabic that the people against Assad are “terrible” and are collaborators with Syria’s foreign enemies.

But not everyone in the community backs Assad, leaving Majdal Shams bitterly divided.

Opposing sides rallied on the same day recently and it turned violent.

And, many who oppose the Syrian dictator are afraid to speak openly, fearing reprisals against their relatives still living in the country.

“Because he is a killer . . . he is a killer,” one unidentified man said.

But even the people who oppose Assad admit it’s impossible to defeat him militarily.

“To defeat him by arms means to get into civil war,” says anti-Assad activist Salman Flhadeen.


Read more: http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/conflict...#ixzz202MX94Dh




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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Syrian Navy Conducts Successful Live Fire Exercise

Jul 07, 2012
http://www.sana.sy/eng/21/2012/07/07/429993.htm

DAMASCUS, (SANA) – The Syrian Naval Forces conducted an operational live fire exercise on Saturday, using missiles launched from the sea and coast, helicopters and missile boats, simulating a scenario of repelling a sudden attack from the sea.

The Navy managed to carry out the training successfully, repelling the hypothetical attack and hitting the given targets with high precisions.



The exercise was attended by Deputy Commander-in-chief of the Army and Armed Forces and Defense Minister Gen. Dawood Rajha, accompanied by senior staff of the General Command of the Army and Armed Forces.

Gen. Rajha praised the preparations for the exercise and the exceptional performance by the naval forces which showed a high level of combat training and its ability to defend Syria's shores against any possible aggression.



This exercise is part of the combat training plan issued by the General Command of the Army and Armed Forces, which involves military maneuvers carried out over several days involving land, sea and air forces in order to test the combat readiness of the Syrian Arab Army and inspect its ability to carry out its duties in circumstances similar to possible combat conditions.





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Syrian army shells Aleppo as war hits Lebanon

Annan admits failure in efforts to find political solution to escalating violence
Gulf News Report
Published: 19:24 July 7, 2012
http://gulfnews.com/news/region/syri...anon-1.1045890

Damascus: The Syrian conflict on Saturday spilled again into neighbouring Lebanon, where two girls were killed amid cross-border clashes, as the regime in Damascus bombarded towns in the northern province of Aleppo killing 19 people.

“Regime forces are attempting to regain control over this [Aleppo] region, where they suffered heavy casualties over the past months to rebels,” the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights was quoted as saying. It added that the bombardment killed a civilian and wounded dozens in the town of Qabtan Al Jabal.

In Lebanon, a teenager died when a rocket hit her house in the border region of Wadi Khaled, a Lebanese security official told AFP, adding that five others were wounded by rockets and exchanges of gunfire.

“A few hours later, an eight-year-old Bedouin girl, who recently fled with her parents from Syria, was killed,” said a hospital source in Akkar province told AFP.

A local official said clashes had broken out at dawn between the Syrian army and gunmen on the Lebanese side of the border.

On Friday, some 100 nations and organisations meeting in Paris called on the UN Security Council to adopt a transition plan for Syria backed by economic sanctions if the regime refuses to comply.

Concretely, they asked the council to urgently adopt a six-point peace plan drawn up by UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan under the UN Charter’s Chapter VII.

But the final statement stressed that any immediate action under Article 41 provided only for non-military intervention.

Annan acknowledged yesterday that the international community’s efforts to find a political solution to the escalating violence in Syria have failed.

Annan told the French daily Le Monde that more attention needed to be paid to the role of longtime Syrian ally Iran, and that countries supporting military actors in the conflict were making the situation worse.

“The evidence shows that we have not succeeded,” he said.






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Clinton Threatens Assad
with 'Catastrophic Assault'

World | July 8, 2012, Sunday| 270 views
http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=141047

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has issued an unusually sharp call to embattled Syria President Bashar Al-Assad to step down amidst violence escalating in his country.

According to Clinton, there is no doubt Syria's opposition forces are growing more effective and the only chance to avoid further bloodshed is a handing down of power by Assad.

"The sooner there can be an end to the violence and a beginning of a political transition process, not only will fewer people die but there is a chance to save the Syrian state from a catastrophic assault that would be very dangerous not only to Syria but to the region," said Clinton during a visit to Japan Sunday.

The US Secretary of State did not specify from whence the assault would come, but she was interpreted by agencies to refer not to an outside intervention, but rather to a full-scale campaign by the Syrian opposition against state institutions.

"There is no doubt that the opposition is getting more effective in their defence of themselves and in going on the offence against the Syrian military and the Syrian government's militias. So, the future should be abundantly clear to those who support the Assad regime," explained Clinton.







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Syria tests missiles against coastal attack

Sun, 8 Jul 2012 13:14 GMT
Source: reuters // Reuters
By Oliver Holmes
http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/s...coastal-attack

BEIRUT, July 8 (Reuters) - Syria's navy fired live missiles from ships and helicopters over the weekend, state media said on Sunday, in an exercise aiming at showcasing its ability to "defend Syria's shores against any possible aggression".

Syrian television aired video of a variety of missiles being fired from launchers on land and from ships and showed the Syrian Defence Minister Dawud Abdallah Rahijia in attendance.

"Naval Forces conducted an operational live fire exercise on Saturday, using missiles launched from the sea and coast, helicopters and missile boats, simulating a scenario of repelling a sudden attack from the sea," Syrian news agency SANA said, adding manoeuvres would continue for several days.

Opposition figures have been calling for a no-fly zone and NATO strikes against Syrian forces, similar to those carried out in Libya last year which enabled rebel ground forces to end the rule of Muammar Gaddafi.

But while President Bashar al-Assad has faced sanctions and international condemnation over his crackdown on dissent which has left thousands dead, major Western and Arab powers have shied away from the idea of direct military action.

Turkey has reinforced its border and scrambled fighter aircraft several times since Syria shot down a Turkish reconnaissance jet on June 22 over what Damascus said were Syrian territorial waters in the Mediterranean. Ankara said the incident occurred in international air space.

More than 30 people were killed on Sunday during a government bombardment and clashes between Syrian forces and Free Syrian Army rebels fighting to oust Assad, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

Activists reported heavy shelling in residential areas of Deir al-Zor city and in Deraa province, the birthplace of the revolt near the Jordanian border.

Rami Abdelrahman, head of the Observatory, said that residents of al-Sharifa in the wider Deir al-Zor province said rebels had taken control of a tank looted in combat for the first time and were using it to attack army positions.

In recent weeks, rebels have become more and more brazen in their attacks, holding small areas of territory across the country and clashing with troops only a few miles from the presidential palace in Damascus. (Additional reporting by Arshad Mohammed in Tokyo; Editing by Andrew Osborn)







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Arabs won't accept Israel

6:05 PM, Jul 7, 2012 |
http://www.theleafchronicle.com/arti...-accept-Israel

JERUSALEM — Whatever else that might be said about the Arab revolutions, it’s obvious that they pose a problem for Israel. But how bad, and what should the Israeli government do to hedge its risks? I heard some interesting — but not very encouraging — ideas on this subject from top government officials last week.

To sum up: Most officials think relations with the Arabs are gradually going to get worse, perhaps for decades, before democracy really takes root and the Arab public, perhaps, will be ready to accept the Jewish state. The challenge for Israel is how to avoid inflaming Arab public opinion, a newly important factor, while also protecting the country.

The trouble ahead is symbolized by the election of Mohamed Morsi, a Muslim Brotherhood leader, as president of Egypt. His inauguration prompted a wary message of congratulation from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, expressing hope that Israeli-Egyptian relations will be cooperative and based on mutual interest. The statement masked deep Israeli anxieties.

The most obvious test will be Gaza, where the militant Hamas leadership is closely allied with the Muslim Brotherhood. Netanyahu has tried to de-escalate crises that have arisen, but if rocket attacks increase, they may draw a harsh Israeli military reaction — which could worsen relations with Cairo.

Efraim Halevy, the former Mossad chief, says Israel should face reality and begin talking with Hamas.

The Sinai Peninsula is another flash point. This vast desert is becoming a lawless area where al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups are trying to find a haven. Intelligence officials here believe the extremists’ strategy is to provoke an Israeli retaliation, and thereby encourage an unraveling of the peace treaty.

The chill in Israel’s relationship with Turkey adds to the dangers of instability in Egypt, Libya and Syria.

Israeli leaders know these new friendships, however useful, won’t alter the basic threat posed by an Arab awakening that, in most countries, has empowered militant Islamic groups. Within the government, there’s a range of views about just how bad the future will be, but nobody uses the congenial phrase “the Arab Spring” that has been common in the West.

Among the optimists, relatively speaking, is said to be Defense Minister Ehud Barak. He thinks Egypt and other neighbors will move toward a version of the “Turkish model” of Islamic democracy, which may be cool toward Israel but will also be pragmatic. Barak thinks Israel can’t simply wait for the storm to pass. The process of change is irreversible.

A darker view is taken by some of the officials who know the Arab world best. They think that for at least the next several years, as Morsi and other Muslim Brotherhood leaders try to consolidate power, they may appear cooperative.

Israel’s existence, never easy, has gotten more complicated and unpredictable. “We are still inside this huge historical shift,” says one senior official, “and we don’t know where it’s going to take us.”






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Israel abandons Obama

Posted: July 08, 2012
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion...YyJ4EjTlkM0uYO

President Obama has another Israel problem.

Not Israel the country, but Israel the congressman — Rep. Steve Israel of Long Island, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Last month, the man tasked with restoring a Democratic House majority essentially decreed, “I shall not let my people go . . . to the Democratic National Convention.” Israel pointedly told candidates not to attend the celebration of Obama’s renomination in North Carolina in September.

“If they want to win an election,” Israel said, “they need to be in their districts.”

Even before Israel’s comments, several prominent Dems announced plans to skip the event.

That includes Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, one of Obama’s most visible supporters during the 2008 campaign and the first two years of his presidency. Others sending “regrets”: West Virginia Democrats Sen. Joe Manchin, Rep. Nick Rahall and Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin, plus four-term Georgia Rep. John Barrow.

What’s it all mean? Maybe that the rats are starting to desert a sinking ship.

After all, politicians don’t keep their distance from popular presidents. Quite the contrary — they want to bask in reflected glory and benefit from the prez’s prodigious fund-raising abilities.

That key Dems would avoid their own national convention speaks volumes about how they perceive Obama: as a drag on their own electoral prospects.

Israel’s advice is even more portentous. After all, he’s not a rank-and-file party member but a top strategist. For him to discourage fellow Dems from joining the September Obama-fest may reflect a cold assessment of how the whole country views the president’s performance.

Given that performance, frankly, it’s understandable.


Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion...#ixzz202TT8vUu




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Syrian fire kills children in Lebanon

Date July 9, 2012 2 reading now
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/worl...708-21pcn.html

TWO girls died and 10 people were injured by Syrian mortar attacks on villages across the Lebanese border yesterday, raising new concerns about the conflict spreading.

One of the dead children, an eight-year-old Bedouin, was a refugee who had fled to Lebanon with her parents to escape the conflict.

Farms up to 20 kilometres from the border were hit, in an area used by refugees, smugglers and fighters who cross into Syria.

Forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad routinely kill people attempting to cross illegally and have occasionally chased rebels on to Lebanese territory. But the long-range shelling of Lebanese targets from within Syria marks a departure.


Opposition monitors said that at least 60 people were killed yesterday in Syria, 19 of them soldiers, as the UN peace envoy, Kofi Annan, admitted in an interview with a French newspaper that attempts to find a political solution had failed.

The UN monitoring mission announced that it would reduce its activities on the ground in Syria. The mission has been barely active for three weeks, since violence in the country increased to a level that made its job impossible.

Opposition activists said they feared for families in the town of Khan Sheikhoun after the army seized control of the rebel stronghold in the northern Idlib province on Friday.

In a dramatic plea for help people in the town said all water and electricity had been cut and summary executions were being carried out.


Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/worl...#ixzz202UtiYWI




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