Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea

[China Connection]

It would seem that China is headed to war quite a few countries. Strange timing with Syria and Iran plus North Korea heating up. World War Three is not far off.
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Chinese analyst calls for war in South China Sea

�A SEA OF FIRE�f:[ Long Tao wrote that Beijing should strike the Philippines and Vietnam, the two �enoisiest troublemakers,�f to strike fear into other claimants[/SIZE]By J. Michael Cole / Staff Reporter

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs yesterday reaffirmed Taiwan�fs sovereignty over disputed islands in the South China Sea and called on all claimants to peacefully resolve the impasse.

The comments came after an editorial published in the Chinese-language edition of the Chinese Communist Party-run Global Times called on the Beijing government to declare war on Vietnam and the Philippines, two countries that have been proactive in defending their claims over the islets.

The op-ed, titled �gA good time to take military action in the South China Sea,�h was penned by Long Tao (—´èé), a strategic analyst at the non-governmental China Energy Fund Committee and also at Zhejiang University�fs Non-Traditional Security and Peace Development Research Center.

�gDo not worry about small-scale wars; it is the best way to release the potential of war. Play a few small battles and big battles can be avoided,�h Long wrote, adding that military action should be focused on striking the Philippines and Vietnam, �gthe two noisiest troublemakers,�h to achieve the effect of killing one chicken to scare the monkeys.

Through military action, he wrote, China could transform the South China Sea into �ga sea of fire,�h an act made possible by the fact that �gof the more than 1,000 oil rigs and four airfields on the Spratly Islands, none belongs to China.�h

On the risks of military action inviting intervention by the international community, the author took an optimistic note.

�gThe US has not withdrawn from the war on terrorism and the Middle East ... so it cannot afford to open a second front in the South China Sea,�h he wrote, adding that the �gdecisive shot�h by Russia in the Caspian Sea in 2008 served as a model. �g[Military] action by a big country in the international arena may result in initial shock, but in the long run, regional stability can be achieved through great power strategic reconciliation.�h

Taiwan, along with Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei and China, claims sovereignty over archipelagos in the area, which are believed to have rich oil and natural gas resources.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman James Chang (�ÍŒv•½) said the ministry would not comment on Chinese media reports.

However, Chang reiterated the government�fs position that the Spratly Islands, Paracel Islands, Macclesfield Islands, Pratas Islands and nearby waters were part of Taiwan�fs territory and territorial waters, and called on claimants to peacefully resolve disputes surrounding the region through negotiation and dialogue.

Taiwan has always upheld the principle of shelving sovereignty disputes and jointly exploring resources based on the principle and spirit of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, he said.

Taiwan does not recognize any resolution reached without its participation and has called for a multilateral mechanism for countries in the region to participate in discussions to seek peaceful development of the region, he added.

[The Mountain]

China is apparently ignoring the bigger implications in acting in the SCS. India and Japan, both major players in that sphere, very likely won't take such action lying down. Even though neither has a dog in that particular fight, neither one wants to see China gaining that kind of influence over such a strategically important resource/area.

[China Connection]

South China Sea: The coming war?
Five things you need to know about one of the world's most dangerous places.
Jonathan AdamsJune 27, 2010 06:49Updated June 30, 2010 07:06


http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/c...tary?page=full

Frontier soldiers take part in a training on the beach of Sanya, south China's Hainan province, Nov. 15, 2006. (China Daily/Reuters)this story is part of globalpost's continuing coverage of world business. for more visit our new business page.TAIPEI, Taiwan — It's a 3.5 million-square kilometer stretch of ocean, speckled with some 200 coral atolls, some submerged or so tiny they hardly deserve to be called islands.

Welcome to the South China Sea, an obscure patch of global real estate that you're likely to hear more about in coming years.

Six Asian countries have long had competing — at times comical — claims to various islands here, sending token military forces to occupy barren rocks at great expense in the name of national pride.

What's new is China's muscle-flexing, which, if trends continue, could make the South China Sea one of Asia's most dangerous flash-points.

Fueling tensions in the sea are untapped oil and natural gas reserves, China's growing strategic interest in protecting sea lanes by which it gets some of its oil, and Beijing's desire to develop a "blue-water" navy capable of projecting power far beyond China's shores.

The U.S. is paying closer attention to the South China Sea, after China reportedly threatened U.S. energy firm ExxonMobil with retaliation if it continued oil exploration off Vietnam in waters China considers its own. And last year Chinese military vessels harassed U.S. surveillance ships in the sea.

Earlier this month, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates made what's believed to be the highest-level public U.S. remarks to date on the issue.

"The South China Sea is an area of growing concern," he said at a security forum in Singapore. "This sea is not only vital to those directly bordering it, but to all nations with economic and security interests in Asia."

Gates repeated the U.S.' longstanding policy that it takes no position on conflicting sovereignty claims in the South China Sea.

But he said the U.S. believes "it is essential that stability, freedom of navigation, and free and unhindered economic development be maintained" and that "we object to any effort to intimidate U.S. corporations or those of any nation engaged in legitimate economic activity."

Here's a primer on the issue:

1) Why does America care?

The U.S. objects to any attempts to intimidate American energy companies operating in the South China Sea, which stretches from China all the way south to Indonesia. It also insists on the right of free navigation in international waters, defined, in accordance with customary international law, as any waters beyond 12 nautical miles from a nation's shoreline.

China says its sovereign territorial waters extend 200 miles from its shores, and makes a historical claim to almost all of the South China Sea, according to a backgrounder from the Heritage Foundation. China also says that any ship traversing the sea should first obtain Chinese permission. It has long complained about U.S. intelligence-gathering from spy-planes and spy-ships operating off its coastline.

2) Who else claims territory in the South China Sea?

Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei also claim all or some of the South China Sea. Vietnam and China both claim the Paracels islands (known as the Xisha in Chinese), which China has controlled since a 1974 battle with Vietnam that left 18 dead. The other four countries as well as China and Vietnam also claim some or all of the Spratly Islands (known as the Nansha in Chinese) further south.

China's hold here is more tenuous; a skeleton force occupies nine speck-like islands, while Taiwan holds the largest island Itu Aba (or Taiping island, in Chinese), Vietnam holds 29 islands, the Philippines eight and Malaysia three, according to Michael Richardson, a visiting researcher at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, in a recent commentary. More than 70 Vietnamese sailors died in the latest military clash in the Spratlys, with China in 1988.

3) What's new about China's behavior?

China has built up its small military presence in the Spratlys. It angered Vietnam by issuing a unilateral fishing ban in the South China Sea, then boarding and seizing Vietnamese fishing boats who did not observe that ban.

Longer-term, China is building up a massive naval base on its southern island of Hainan from which it will be able to project power into the South China Sea. The base will house China's new nuclear-armed submarines, as well as its first aircraft carrier, expected to enter service by 2012, and many other warships.

Perhaps most significantly, China has recently begun to define its claim of sovereignty over the South China Sea as a "core interest," say analysts, using new language that puts the sea on par with Beijing's claims over Taiwan and Tibet. Veteran China watcher Willy Lam calls it part of China's "red-line diplomacy."

"These red lines define China's core interests," said Lam at a recent talk in Taipei. "Now, China is increasing its core interests. The latest development is that China also considers the South China Sea as its 'core interest' — it's asking the U.S. and other countries not to interfere with its 'core interests' in the South China Sea. It's drawing red lines around the entire sea."

Wendell Minnick, Asia bureau chief for Defense News, wrote in an email that Gates' remarks in Singapore were a "surprise."

"Clearly China's decision to include the South China Sea as a 'core interest' is something unnerving," said Minnick.

Southeast Asian nations are also increasingly worried, according to Arthur Ding, a Taiwan expert on military issues who also attended the Singapore conference. He said he's heard rising concerns from southeast Asian officials, especially those from Vietnam and the Philippines, about China's growing "assertiveness."

And he highlighted Chinese general Ma Xiaotian's mention of the South China Sea in a Q&A session in Singapore.

"The South China Sea had become so quiet, or at least not as much of an issue as the Taiwan Strait and the Korean peninsula," said Ding. "So this [Ma's remarks] really surprised me."

4) What are the most plausible conflict scenarios?

One worry is an incident at sea — say, a collision between a U.S. surveillance ship and a People's Liberation Army ship leading to loss of life — that could escalate due to miscalculation and lack of communication. One such incident took place in 2001 between a U.S. spy-plane and a Chinese fighter jet. The U.S. and Chinese militaries established a hotline in 2008, but China often simply refuses to pick up the phone out of pique, according to a recent Defense News report.

But the nations most likely to come to blows in the South China Sea may be China and Vietnam. Hanoi was incensed by Beijing's treatment of its fishing boats last year and lodged a formal protest. It continues to see the Paracels as its territory, illegally occupied by the Chinese. Anti-China nationalism runs strong in Vietnam and is easily inflamed. The two nations' militaries have twice skirmished in the South China Sea, in 1974 and 1988.

China's moves appear to have already started a regional arms race, analysts say. "Some southeast Asian nations are starting to beef up their armed forces to hedge growing Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea," wrote Ian Storey, fellow of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, in a recent commentary.

Defense News' Minnick said that Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam had "gotten into the submarine game," and that "there are more concerns of an underwater collision than an accidental war" in the South China Sea.

"Many of the countries now deploying submarines are not familiar with underwater rules of right of way," Minnick said. "There are clear demarcations for direction and depth that are not being followed by some of the more inexperienced countries. And then there's Chinese submarines roaming around as well. So it's getting crowded underwater."

Meanwhile, one side effect of China's new claim may be to strengthen the U.S.' budding ties with Vietnam. "The U.S. is moving closer to Vietnam, and better military-to-military relations are expected to improve this year as China rattles the saber more," said Minnick.

5) Are there any efforts to resolve South China Sea disputes?

In 2002 the concerned nations signed a "code of conduct" agreement on the South China Sea. But the deal hasn't yet been fully implemented, largely due to China, analysts say. "China perceives the South China Sea as its territory, so it thinks 'Why do I have to implement the code of conduct?'" said Ding, the Taiwanese expert.

Last year, Vietnam and Malaysia submitted their formal claims to territory in the South China Sea. China immediately protested, rendering the claims invalid, a move that further ratcheted up ill will. The issue has quieted down in recent months, but the underlying territorial disagreements are far from being resolved.

"Somehow, ways must be found to prevent emotive nationalism and militarism from upsetting the uneasy status quo in the South China Sea," wrote the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies' Richardson.

[China Connection]

Firepower bristles in South China Sea as rivalries harden

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47809326.../#.T9wrU8VuVtc

'China is a completely different actor now. Security planners are wondering if it is like this now, what is it going to be like in 20 years' time?' defense analyst says
Below:
HONG KONG — In the early years of China's rise to economic and military prowess, the guiding principle for its government was Deng Xiaoping's maxim: "Hide Your Strength, Bide Your Time."

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Getty Images Violence feared as polarized Egypt returns to polls Now, more than three decades after paramount leader Deng launched his reforms, that policy has seemingly lapsed or simply become unworkable as China's military muscle becomes too expansive to conceal and its ambitions too pressing to postpone.

The current squabble with Southeast Asian nations over territorial claims in the energy-rich South China Sea is a prime manifestation of this change, especially the standoff with the Philippines over Scarborough Shoal.

"This is not what we saw 20 years ago," said Ross Babbage, a defense analyst and founder of the Canberra-based Kokoda Foundation, an independent security policy unit.

"China is a completely different actor now. Security planners are wondering if it is like this now, what is it going to be like in 20 years' time?"

US, Philippines downplay China fears while staging 'routine' war games

As China also continues to modernize its navy at breakneck speed, a growing sense of unease over Beijing's long-term ambitions has galvanized the exact response Deng was anxious to avoid, regional security experts say.

Advertise | AdChoicesAdvertise | AdChoicesAdvertise | AdChoicesIn what is widely interpreted as a counter to China's growing influence, the United States is pushing ahead with a muscular realignment of its forces towards the Asia-Pacific region, despite Washington's fatigue with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the Pentagon's steep budget cuts.

'US strategic rebalancing'
And regional nations, including those with a history of adversarial or distant relations with the United States, are embracing Washington's so-called strategic pivot to Asia.

"In recent years, because of the tensions and disputes in the South China Sea, most regional states in Southeast Asia seem to welcome and support U.S. strategic rebalancing in the region," said Li Mingjiang, an assistant professor and China security policy expert at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University.

"Very likely, this trend will continue in coming years."

Last week, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta laid out the details of the firepower the Obama administration plans to swing to the Asia-Pacific region.

China wary as US, Philippines stage war games

As part of the strategic pivot unveiled in January, the United States will deploy 60 per cent of its warships in the Asia-Pacific, up from 50 percent now. They will include six aircraft carriers and a majority of the U.S. navy's cruisers, destroyers, littoral combat ships and submarines.

"Make no mistake, in a steady, deliberate and sustainable way, the United States military is rebalancing and bringing an enhanced capability development to this vital region," Panetta told the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual security conference in Singapore attended by civilian and military leaders from Asia-Pacific and Western nations.

Two-month standoff
For some of China's smaller neighbors like the Philippines, there is a pressing urgency to build warmer security ties with Washington.

A two-month standoff between the Philippines and China over Scarborough Shoal shows no sign of resolution, with both sides deploying paramilitary ships and fishing boats to the disputed chain of rocks, reefs and small islands about 130 miles from the Philippines.

Philippine President Benigno Aquino met President Barack Obama on Friday at the White House, where the two discussed expanding military and economic ties.

Obama later told reporters that clear, international rules were needed to resolve maritime disputes in the South China Sea.

Video: Philippines, U.S. stage war games (on this page) Advertise | AdChoicesAdvertise | AdChoicesAdvertise | AdChoicesWhile the standoff continues, reports last week in China's state-controlled media and online military websites suggested that the first of a new class of a stealthy littoral combat frigate, the type 056, had been launched at Shanghai's Hudong shipyard with three others under construction.

Naval analysts said the new 1,700-ton ship, armed with a 76mm main gun, missiles and anti-submarine torpedoes, would be ideal for patrolling the South China Sea.

These new warships would easily outgun the warships of rival claimants, they said.

The type 056 is the latest example of an accelerated military buildup that allows China to dominate its offshore waters.

While these warships were designed for lower-level regional conflict, experts say one of the primary goals of Beijing's wider deployment of advanced, long-range missiles, stealthy submarines, strike aircraft and cyber weapons appears to be countering the U.S. military in the region.

Read more coverage of China on NBC's Behind The Wall

"China is investing in a whole raft of capabilities to undermine the U.S. presence in the Western and Central Pacific," said Babbage, a former senior Australian defense official.

"It is a fundamental challenge to the U.S. in Asia."

Panetta and other U.S. officials routinely reject suggestions that the pivot is aimed at China but military commentators in Beijing appear in no doubt.

In a report last week on the U.S. military, the China Strategic Culture Promotion Association, a non-government security analysis group, said Beijing should be on alert in response to the U.S. military "return to Asia" and any attempt to intervene in disputes in the South China Sea.

In a separate commentary published in the state-controlled media, the group's executive vice president, outspoken retired Major General Luo Yuan, said the U.S. pivot was part of "watching brief" on a rising China.

"The U.S. military has developed four different plans to combat the Chinese military," Luo wrote, but gave no details.

Video: Rosario: We will stand up ‘for our sovereignty’ (on this page) Advertise | AdChoicesAdvertise | AdChoicesAdvertise | AdChoicesLuo, a government adviser, is one of a number of senior Chinese officials and commentators who have called for a more determined effort from Beijing to safeguard China's maritime interests. This suggests China will become more assertive in the South China Sea but it is unlikely to use force, according to Nanyang University's Li.

"Beijing understands very well that any military confrontation would have a profound negative impact on China's strategic position in the Asia-Pacific and China's relations with regional states," Li said.

The worry however is that a mistake or a miscalculation could trigger a confrontation.

Reaching out
As part of his swing through Asia last week, Panetta also visited India and Vietnam in a bid to enhance security ties with two key regional powers that have not been traditional U.S. allies but are increasingly apprehensive about China's rise.

At Vietnam's deep water port of Cam Ranh Bay, a key U.S. base during the Vietnam War, Panetta said the use of this harbor would be important to the Pentagon as it moved more ships to Asia.

Panetta: Majority of US warships moving to Asia

Later, in New Delhi, Panetta said ties between the two nations were improving rapidly but expanded defense cooperation was needed to boost regional and global security.

He said the United States planned to increase its military presence and defense partnerships in an arc from the Western Pacific, through East Asia, South Asia and into the Indian Ocean.

"Defense cooperation with India is a linchpin in this strategy," he said.

In a development that will be further cause for concern in Beijing, the fleshed-out U.S. pivot and renewed commitment to regional defense ties won strong endorsement from key allies, even those who rely on growing trade with China.

Slideshow: The dance of two giants (on this page)
On a visit to Beijing, Australian Defense Minister Stephen Smith said the U.S. presence in Asia had been a force for peace, stability and prosperity since the end of World War Two.

"Australia welcomes very much the fact that not only will the United States continue that engagement, it will enhance it," he said in a speech to the China Institute of International Strategic Studies.

Advertise | AdChoicesAdvertise | AdChoicesAdvertise | AdChoicesSmith noted that two-way trade between Australia and China reached $120 billion last year but Canberra would continue to deepen its military ties with the U.S., including the rotational deployment of up to 2,500 U.S. troops through Darwin.

If the standoff over Scarborough Shoal is a guide to future territorial disagreements, Beijing can expect other regional nations to feel the same way.

"The South China Sea disputes are likely to remain as a regional security spotlight issue and it will continue to pester China's relations with those claimant states," Li said.

[China Connection]

FEATURE: Report raises fear of South China Sea warThe chances of a full-scale war erupting which could drag in China, the US, the Philippines and Vietnam are not as remote as one may think.
http://australianetworknews.com/stor...04/3488325.htm

AUDIO
Conflicts in the South China Sea getting worse
Created: Tue, 24 Apr 17:26:32 UTC+0800 2012
Stephen McDonell, China Correspondent

Last Updated: Tue, 24 Apr 2012 21:43:00 +1000

In recent weeks China and the Philippines had a tense stand-off in the disputed waters of the South China Sea.

It involved fishing boats, armed coast guard vessels and eventually even warships.

It is not the first confrontation in the area but the International Crisis Group (ICG) says the situation is potentially getting worse.

A new ICG report, titled Stirring up the South China Sea, has identified key problems within China as making war in the sea potentially more likely.

The report says China's approach to the sea is marred by competing government departments, nationalist sentiment, unclear laws and a sense of a country being cornered.

It warns those factors could one day push it into a regional war with Vietnam or the Philippines, drawing in the US.

The report found the Chinese government is actively trying to defuse tensions with its neighbours.

But it said that by having multiple Chinese agencies dealing with maritime disputes using armed coastguard vessels and competing for budgets and power, the situation has been made worse.

Clashes in the South China Sea have become more frequent.

Last year, a Chinese fishing boat rammed the exploration cables of a Vietnamese ship and, as a result, both countries engaged in live-fire exercises.

Just last week, armed Chinese vessels stopped the Philippine navy from detaining Chinese fishermen said to be poaching in contested waters.

Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, the ICG's north-east Asia project director, says China and other countries have been withholding their navies from getting involved in these incidents.

But she thinks it could increase the likelihood of major battles involving smaller armed policing ships.

"We worry in Crisis Group that the threshold for entry into conflict is much less by having all of these law enforcement and paramilitary vessels because it's seen as well they're just law enforcement vessels," she said.

"So they're more easily deployed and they're far less conscious of the rules; the rules of the road, international law, these types of things than would be the PLA navy.

"So they can be more careless and in fact there's some kind of a quasi-coastguard arms race going on in the region."

Ms Kleine-Ahlbrandt also raised the possibility that nationalism at home could push China and its neighbours closer to a dispute over competing waters.

She says her organisation is becoming more alarmed about the South China Sea.

"These five countries, China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei have actually very overlapping claims and the incidents are increasing because you have essentially a sort of a proxy war going on through fisheries vessels where these countries don't want to engage through a major conflict through their navies," she said.

"These incidents, which are going to continue to happen, are getting harder to de-escalate because of the nationalist sentiment in the claimant countries, including, for example, Vietnam and China which makes it more difficult for these countries, particularly when the incident becomes international, to walk away from it because they don't want to be seen as weak vis-a-vis their own publics."

She says people might be surprised to know that the Chinese government has to pay attention to what its ordinary people think on issues like this.

"There's a Chinese Twitter called Weibo so the government has far less control over how to depict certain disputes," she said.

"The information that gets out there, it can be instantly available in minutes to hundreds of thousands of people.

"When the domestic environment is very heated on these issues it does make it difficult for China to be seen in any way as weak or compromising."

The report has called for the Chinese Foreign Ministry to take full control of South China Sea disputes but says that at the moment it lacks the authority and resources to manage the other Chinese ministries involved.

[China Connection]

Why A War Between China And Vietnam Is InevitableDee Woo|July 20, 2011|9,011|80
Now Much to China's dismay, the South China Sea dispute has become an open-house party: the US is invited by many to host the show, and even China's arch rival India will tag along. The biggest allure for the party is oil, 7.5 billion barrels of the liquid gold deposited in the region---well-exceeding 80 percent of the entire Saudi kingdoms' reserves, according to Chinese estimates.

The regional mess proves Beijing's policy of "shelving disputes and developing jointly" is a total failure. In Territorial Disputes, sovereignty is a fiat currency solely backed by the economic and military might. Otherwise it's simply bluff. Diplomacy and Economic ties alone will never win China the south China sea.

http://articles.businessinsider.com/...outh-china-sea

[China Connection]

David against Goliath on the South China SeaBy David Piper
Published May 10, 2012
FoxNews.com



May 10, 2012: A protesters burns a Philippine flag and a U.S. flag during a protest outside the Philippines Consulate in Hong Kong. (AP)
The dispute between China and the Philippines over the countries' maritime boundaries seems to have moved to a much more dangerous level -- and could soon include the United States.

China is now warning of a potential war with its Asian neighbor.

"No matter how willing we are to discuss the issue, the current Philippine leadership is intent on pressing us into a corner where there is no other option left but the use of arms," said an editorial in the state-controlled China Daily newspaper.

The dispute is over a small group of islands called the Scarborough Shoal off the northwestern Philippines that both nations claim as their territory.

Last month, a tense standoff took place between navies of both countries, after military vessels from the Philippines tried to stop a Chinese fishing fleet from entering the territory.

Non-military ships from both nations remain in the area to enforce their claim.

The shoal is about 140 miles from the coastline of the Philippines, which insists its claim is supported by international law.

The nearest Chinese-controlled land mass is several hundred miles away.

But China claims most of the South China Sea. Its claim spreads far to the southeast and includes waters very close to other Asian nations, such as Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam.

It is thought the South China Sea has vast quantities of oil and gas beneath it and all of these nations want to stake their claim.

It's also a widely perceived as a potential flashpoint between the countries; it is also a major international waterway of the United States, which uses it to have its fleets pass through to the Middle East.

China announced today it was suspending all tours of the Philippines by Chinese nationals because of the risk, it says, for their safety.

Meanwhile, a demonstration against China is to be staged outside the Chinese Embassy in the Philippines capital Manila on Friday.

The Chinese Embassy has also warned its citizens to stay off the streets.

China also says it will be checking more stringently all deliveries of fruit imports from the Philippines. China is its largest market for fruit products, such as bananas.

Both actions look also to be an attempt to put economic pressure on the Philippines.

China has always wanted to make any negotiations about the area on a bilateral basis rather than make it an international issue that would bring in other nations, including the United States.

The Philippines has also said it wants to negotiate, but Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario has also warned of China's looming threat to freedom of navigation.

Now, though, it seems China is warning that it's prepared to take military action if the Philippines doesn’t back down.

The PLA Daily, the official newspaper of the People's Liberation Army of China, ran an article titled, “Don’t Attempt to Take Away Half an Inch of China’s Territory”over the Scarborough Shoals or, as China calls it, Huangyan Island.

"We want to say that anyone's attempt to take away China's sovereignty over Huangyan Island will not be allowed by the Chinese government, people and armed forces," the newspaper said in the article.

Poornima Subramaniam of IHS Global Insight told Fox News that a shooting war would be a no-contest situation. “A military confrontation between the two militaries would be a total mismatch. The Philippine Navy’s combat or even patrolling capabilities are no match to that of the PLA Navy. The fact that the Philippine Navy’s capability was greatly enhanced by the 44-year-old former US Coast Guard cutter, when it became the PN's flagship, illustrates the navy's inherent weakness and its inability to maintain a credible fleet.”

The Philippines has, though, been touting its alliance with the United States during the dispute.The two countries had planned a joint military exercise in the South China Sea last month.

China has been watching the growing presence of the U.S military in the region and analysts suggests this latest dispute is linked to the joint exercise, which involves dealing with terrorists who have taken over an oil rig in the South China Sea.

But the Philippines should be not expect help from the U.S. if it turns into a shooting war, says Subramaniam.

“Given this capability gap, the Philippines knows it has a lot to gain through alliance with the U.S. But any hope that the U.S. would provide 'cover' from China over disputed maritime borders in the South China Sea, in case of a military conflict, is unlikely to be met, as there is little for Washington to gain by openly siding with Manila in any dispute with Beijing.”

China has been prepared to support its claims in the South China Sea with military action in the past.

In 1974, China and Vietnam fought a short battle over the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea, a battle that China won.

Despite the rhetoric coming out of China at the moment of backing up its territorial claims by force, it's still questionable if it wants to cause an international crisis now while it continues to grow economically and militarily.


Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/05...#ixzz1xwma0tJd

[Vegas321]

Good luck to China trying to take over Nam... Blustering IMO, for now. Maybe some years down the road, or if everyone wishes to join in a WWIII.

[China Connection]

The last time China went into Vietnam they just came in with human waves. They will do the same thing again. Why unemployment and depopulation.

................................................

Human wave attack


From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_wave_attack

Human wave attack, also known as human sea attack,[1] is an offensive infantry tactic, in which an attacker conducts an unprotected frontal assault with densely concentrated infantry formations against the enemy line, intended to overrun the defenders by engaging in melee combat.


According to U.S. Army analyst Edward C. O'Dowd, the technical definition of a human wave attack tactic is a frontal assault by densely concentrated infantry formations against an enemy line, without any attempts to shield or to mask the attacker's movement.[2] The goal of a human wave attack is to maneuver as many men as possible into close range, hoping that the shock from a large mass of attackers engaged in melee combat would force the enemy to disintegrate or fall back.[2]

The human wave attack's reliance on melee combat usually makes the skills of individual soldiers irrelevant, but it requires either great physical courage, coercion, or esprit de corps for the attackers to advance into enemy fire.[3] However, when matched against modern weaponry such as automatic firearms, artillery and aircraft, a human wave attack is an extremely dangerous and costly tactic in the face of devastating firepower.[2] Thus, for the human wave attack to succeed on the modern battlefield, it is imperative for the attackers to charge into the enemy line in the shortest time and in the greatest numbers possible, so that a sufficient mass can be preserved when the attackers reach melee range.[2]

However, this solution usually means that the attackers must sacrifice concealment and cover for numbers and speed.[2] Because of this trade-off, human wave attacks are normally used by an attacker with a lack of tactical training, or one who lacks firepower and the ability to maneuver, but whose main advantage is motivating and controlling their men.[4]

[Housecarl]

The last time China went into Vietnam they just came in with human waves. They will do the same thing again. Why unemployment and depopulation.

................................................

Human wave attack


From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_wave_attack

Human wave attack, also known as human sea attack,[1] is an offensive infantry tactic, in which an attacker conducts an unprotected frontal assault with densely concentrated infantry formations against the enemy line, intended to overrun the defenders by engaging in melee combat.


According to U.S. Army analyst Edward C. O'Dowd, the technical definition of a human wave attack tactic is a frontal assault by densely concentrated infantry formations against an enemy line, without any attempts to shield or to mask the attacker's movement.[2] The goal of a human wave attack is to maneuver as many men as possible into close range, hoping that the shock from a large mass of attackers engaged in melee combat would force the enemy to disintegrate or fall back.[2]

The human wave attack's reliance on melee combat usually makes the skills of individual soldiers irrelevant, but it requires either great physical courage, coercion, or esprit de corps for the attackers to advance into enemy fire.[3] However, when matched against modern weaponry such as automatic firearms, artillery and aircraft, a human wave attack is an extremely dangerous and costly tactic in the face of devastating firepower.[2] Thus, for the human wave attack to succeed on the modern battlefield, it is imperative for the attackers to charge into the enemy line in the shortest time and in the greatest numbers possible, so that a sufficient mass can be preserved when the attackers reach melee range.[2]

However, this solution usually means that the attackers must sacrifice concealment and cover for numbers and speed.[2] Because of this trade-off, human wave attacks are normally used by an attacker with a lack of tactical training, or one who lacks firepower and the ability to maneuver, but whose main advantage is motivating and controlling their men.[4]

Last time the PRC went at Vietnam proper, what kept the Vietnamese from an envelopment situation for their defending force and turned it into an attrition fight for the PLA was the real time feeding of satellite and signals intel to Vietnam by Russia.

That being said, either the author of the thread starting piece is trying to further set the stage for "talks" or he and the faction that he works for haven't read their Sun Tzu.

That being said, all of these actions by the PRC and their ally Pakistan and vassal state North Korea is only getting India, South Korea and Japan (as well as Taiwan) reasons to bolster their capabilities in a manner that can be directly focused upon the PRC ruling CCP and PLA. India is already getting themselves a strategic force that can reach directly into the heart of China, never mind Pakistan, both land based and soon on SSBNs, RoK and RoC already have LACMs that can threaten the mainland and Japan in very short order can have those as well as ballistic missiles and appropriate warheads for that role.

[China Connection]

Bump

[Buckster]

The only thing keeping all these potential wars around the globe from breaking out bigtime is American military might.

Look to a post Iran war, after American military is eventually broken despite subduing Iran. Then these other wars will break out and ww3 will ensue.

[China Connection]

Yep, America's war machine is made up of limited ships and planes. You are too spread out with your forces. If you are faced with taking on the whole world just about at the same time then you have little chance of winning. India is not pro West. Japan is broke and has dropped the dollar in trading.

This war will go nuke quickly and then go conventional. Russia has the nukes and China has the numbers. And please I fight with my bosses at work just about all the time. So I am not supporting the government of China. I am just saying what I think will happen full stop.

[Richard]

don't think it will happen, any evidence to the contrary? i mean real evidence not just a journalist's opinion?

[Buckster]

Yep, America's war machine is made up of limited ships and planes. You are too spread out with your forces. If you are faced with taking on the whole world just about at the same time then you have little chance of winning. India is not pro West. Japan is broke and has dropped the dollar in trading.

This war will go nuke quickly and then go conventional. Russia has the nukes and China has the numbers. And please I fight with my bosses at work just about all the time. So I am not supporting the government of China. I am just saying what I think will happen full stop.

No need to apologize, at least from my perspective. I have never considered you "pro" China. You just state the facts as you see them. Although I don't agree with your timing for events. Eventually WW3 is going to happen. No argument there.

And you might want to cool it with your bosses, CC.

[Richard]

No need to apologize, at least from my perspective. I have never considered you "pro" China. You just state the facts as you see them. Although I don't agree with your timing for events. Eventually WW3 is going to happen. No argument there.

And you might want to cool it with your bosses, CC.

China will not go to war with the US

[TerryK]

Any full scale, short of nuclear war, with China would not last long.
China is not equipped and capable of fighting a large war modern war. They can push around the local small countries but almost all their coastal and naval assets could be taken down in a couple of weeks if they fought with the US.
They may have numbers on their side, but that is not as important as technology and experience anymore.

[China Connection]

Well my thinking sitting here in China is one of puzzlement. Say the city where I live. Six years back it was a city of 800,0000. It must be getting towards the 2,000,000 target mark now; especially in respect to apartment blocks and support shopping malls. Now this has mainly occurred since 2008 after their export market collapsed. So now we have the US and Europe going into depression and the stimulus money at close to an end here. The building boom is also at an end as the market price on realestate has collapsed in most of the big cities.
Next if the U.S. collapses good and proper later this year then Shanghai and Suzhou will collapse here and these two cities are very interlinked and dependent upon the U.S. market. We are talking about a lot of people here.

Okay question time! What is going to happen when the plug is pulled here on city employment?

The central government, the provincial / state governments are all broke and so on. The tax system here is based on the cities not the farming community. A major crash in exports no tax coming in. Debt snowballing.

My answer is war. Now say the U.S. is at war in the Middle East and Korea and while this is happening China goes to war with its close neighbors. IS the US going to come to the rescue of China’s neighbors?

[Bubble Head]

Sorry to say but this sounds like pre WWII talk all over again. Whats the saying, DeJa Moo, seen this Bull Shite before. Don't doubt for a minute it won't happen.

[China Connection]

Yep, everywhere is being put on a prewar footing. "No work, no money so why not join up and see the world. Meet interesting people and kill them."

Lemmings and not that stupid when you come to think of it. They just mass suicide instead of turning on each other while at the same time destroying the environment around themselves.

[atvJim]

Nobody can hold a drumbeat like CC....problem is....given a different drum, he couldn't hold a beat.

[China Connection]

Ah, atvJim how is business going for you? What have you got planned for in case you have to hit the road? Have you ever lived out of the cities? Have you lived in many different countries? Have you gone off into jungles with local people? Let’s see I have worked at cooking, gardening, cleaning, teaching, hospital work, live in house father, old peoples home, hospital orderly and many other jobs.

But you are right I suppose as I am not musical. Perhaps you would like my other kind of writing / editing atvJim.

.................................................. .........................................

A Beautiful Umbrella. By Zou Tianjing. Class 1, Grade 8
One day, I met my grandpa. I couldn’t believe my eyes because my grandpa had died. However, it’s true. I saw my grandpa holding a colorful umbrella in his hand, but the weather was very good. It was sunny. I heard him say: “My dear, are you OK? Your dear grandpa misses you very much, so I’ve come to see you.” “Dear grandpa, you are dead, right?” I was frightened. “Don’t be afraid. Look, this is a special umbrella. It can make every dream come true. But you can’t be too greedy. If you are then it will punish you. There is another one in your world. If you can find it then you will be so, so lucky.”
Then I heard my mother shout at me: “Wake up, baby. It’s seven o’clock. Hurry up. We will go to a birthday party.” Oh, it was just a wonderful dream, but then I found a piece of paper in my hand. It said: “Umbrella.” I became very surprised. “Whose birthday party is it?’ I asked. “Your uncle’s.” My mother answered.
I woke up quickly after hearing all this. Then I looked out of the window. “What a terrible day!” It was raining outside. I remembered that our umbrella had been broken yesterday by my brother. “Mum, it’s raining outside. We don’t have an umbrella anymore.” “No problem. Let’s go and buy one.”
I went to the umbrella shop with mom and there I saw many different kinds of umbrellas. They were beautiful. Suddenly, I saw a colorful umbrella with a nice picture on it, and I thought of the paper. It was as same as the colorful umbrella in my grandpa’s hand that I had seen in my dream. I thought of my grandpa’s words. I got very excited. Then I bought it, but I couldn’t open it. I knew the reason was because it was a special umbrella. I said: “Please, please, open up, make, make my dream come true.” Then the special umbrella opened. It was very special. My mother saw me messing about and said angrily. “Hurry up! Do you know what time it is now?” “Don’t worry, mum.” I opened the umbrella and said to it, “I’m your new master. You should listen to me. Please, please, hurry up. We want to go to the party.” I asked my mother to close her eyes and when we opened our eyes, we were at the party. That was just so, so magical.
After I had the special umbrella, I used it to help me listen in my classes at school, also to help me finish my homework, plus to help me do everything just about. For a period of time, I became the top student in my school. Nobody could believe that it was me.
I forgot my grandpa’s words however. “You can’t be too greedy. If you become like that then the umbrella will punish you.”
I never studied hard after I had the umbrella. There were only five days yes just after five days; then I must pass the exam. I would become a piano player I hoped, but these days I didn’t practice the piano any more. I was afraid I couldn’t pass the exam. “Please, please, help me, make, make my dream come true.” But it said, “You didn’t pay any attention to your studies. So I can’t help you.” “What did you said?” “I think you know.” It replied!
“Why?” But nobody answered.
“If you don’t help me, I’ll have a break down.”
Nobody answered.
I think it will help me pass the exam. Five days later, I was at the exam. At the beginning, I played the piano very well and the teacher looked at me with a smile on her face. But in the end, I couldn’t move my fingers and I felt very tired. I couldn’t control myself. I went to sleep on the piano. I felt that I was just like air and my body was on the piano. I saw everybody laugh at me. I looked at the beautiful umbrella next to the piano. It also looked at me.
“Look! It’s the punishment that you deserve.”
“I got very angry and said, “Why? Do you want to die?”
“I am just a ghost in the umbrella. You can’t punish me.”
“Wake me up!” I ordered.
“You are too rude.”
“Please wake me up.”
Oh, my God. What happened just now? Why did I sleep on the piano? Why did everyone look at me? I couldn’t remember what happened so I walked out of the room. Of course, I didn’t pass the exam and I forgot I that I once had a beautiful special umbrella.
I heard someone saying to me, “You are too greedy.”
“You are too greed” It sounded like a ghost.
So I became just an ordinary girl and lived an ordinary life again.

[Man of the East]

Any full scale, short of nuclear war, with China would not last long.
China is not equipped and capable of fighting a large war modern war. They can push around the local small countries but almost all their coastal and naval assets could be taken down in a couple of weeks if they fought with the US.
They may have numbers on their side, but that is not as important as technology and experience anymore.

You are dead wrong. Go back and do some more research. Given herebelow is a commentary written in 2007, and since than China has developed mush further in its military strenth, including DF21D and submarine Intercontinental Ballstic Missiles which are anti-aircraft carriers and war ships. In addition to the foregrgoing, China has $3.04 Trillion foreign exchange reeserves to not only to further improve its military strength and technology.

here is the article referenced hereabove:
Can the United States Win a War Against China?

Aby - July 17th, 2007. A topic of popular discussion is a possible war scenario between United States and China, especially in the light of rapid growth in strengths and capability of the People’s Liberation Army of China. It would be interesting to analyse what the outcomes of such a war could be, considering the overall technological superiority of US military and the strategic superiority of Chinese PLA on their own ground.

Chinese President Hu Jintao (left) and his US counterpart George Bush (right):Let us hope they do not think of coming to military ‘blows’

The most likely reasons for a possible US vs China war could be a US invasion of North Korea or an escalation of the Taiwan dispute. A war of such nature would be fought in the Pacific, which would be of advantage to the better equipped-and-trained US Navy. However, if the US decides to secure its position by invading China, the outcomes would be quite different…and devastating. To understand this in a realistic perspective, what follows is a multi-dimensional analysis of a possible US-China war scenario, encompassing historical trends with the (known) present day military capabilities of both countries.

If the US were to attempt a war with China, it would face a much worse time than it did in Vietnam or Kosovo. A US bombing strike on the Chinese mainland would not only be struck down by the Chinese air defences (SAMs, AAMs, etc.) but also face a full fledged counter attack from China’s PLAAF. The small size of Taiwan would make the US bases there a vulnerable target for Chinese missile attacks, while the huge territorial depth of China would secure itself from an overwhelming counterattack. The PLA and the Chinese people would be unlike any adversary the US faced in the past. Like Kosovo, there would be a lot of surprises in store for US forces but unlike Kosovo they wouldn’t be facing 10,000 disorganised troops. Instead it would be a 2.5 million strong army with full fledged air, ground, sea and missile forces; all backed by a relatively stable economy and effectively dispersed human intelligence (HUMINT).

A war with China would also result in severe economic repercussions for the US due to a major chunk of its economic activities on China and if such a war prolonged, it would throw the American economy into chaos. China’s economy would also be hurt, but the Chinese will be able to carry on much better than Americans, owing to their history of surviving through severly devastating wars in the near past.
A nuclear option would carry an even more severe repurcussion for both sides. In the case of a nuclear first strike by the US, China’s retaliation would obliterate 20-40 of the largest US cities, effectively wiping off 40-100 million people in the American mainland. Even if the US uses its large arsenal to secure a victory, the after-effects of a nuclear exchange will render the American mainland into massive wasteland. There will be no actual victors, only a massive loss of human lives and property.

[Swamp Wallaby]

China is apparently ignoring the bigger implications in acting in the SCS. India and Japan, both major players in that sphere, very likely won't take such action lying down. Even though neither has a dog in that particular fight, neither one wants to see China gaining that kind of influence over such a strategically important resource/area.

Yep - and India, at least, does have a stake in the game already - they've got a treaty with Vietnam for joint oil exploration in part of the disputed area. Japan may not have any such claims, but a heck of a lot of their international trade goes through the South China Sea and the Malacca Strait, including a lot of their oil imports

[Housecarl]

Yep, America's war machine is made up of limited ships and planes. You are too spread out with your forces. If you are faced with taking on the whole world just about at the same time then you have little chance of winning. India is not pro West. Japan is broke and has dropped the dollar in trading.

This war will go nuke quickly and then go conventional. Russia has the nukes and China has the numbers. And please I fight with my bosses at work just about all the time. So I am not supporting the government of China. I am just saying what I think will happen full stop.

The factors not being noted are those of CoG within the PRC and PLA, particularly when we look at the current dance going on with regards to the succession.

If I were planning to attack the PRC, what I'd focus upon would be the top leadership's ability to function (C4IR), physically "disrupt" their chain of command and neutralizing their offensive capabilities.

With proper and timely intel and analysis, the load out equivalent of two Ohio SSGNs (conventional TLAMs) could handle the CoG/C4IR targeting. The long range systems of the PLA 2nd Artillery would be more problematic, but considering the capabilities of the SDB, particularly with the glide bomb package, it could be feasible. (One reason why the Russians wanted JDAMs included in the START talks was the potential for two B-1Bs conventionally armed with JDAMs to take out any of their ICBM fields in one low level high speed run.)

I'm not saying it should be done, only that it could be done.

The best outcome would be for everyone to knock off the rhetoric and sit down over a good assortment of teas, coffees, juices and snacks and figure this all out. The problem is with that is the number of egos that won't fit through the doors of the conference room.

ETA: That all being said, I'm sure that they've had planners within the PLA staff look at doing this to some degree or other to the US, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India.

[Man of the East]

Yep - and India, at least, does have a stake in the game already - they've got a treaty with Vietnam for joint oil exploration in part of the disputed area. Japan may not have any such claims, but a heck of a lot of their international trade goes through the South China Sea and the Malacca Strait, including a lot of their oil imports

------------------------------------------
Any direct confontation between India and China deos not deemed to be feasible since Minister of Foregn Affairs of India formaly requested on June 13 to Chinese vice premier to get China's support for India to be a member of the Shanghi Co-opration organozation, which is controlled by China and Russia. SOC is organized by China and Russia to serve as counter part organization of the Nato of Europe - for mutual defense and common and joint development of ecomony. The funding members were the four former members of USSR, surrounding the border line with China producing oil and other natual resources,
Subsquently, Afganistan became an observer and and Turkey as a partner ( who will be soon enough join as members.

As for Japan, after having commnenced the purchase of Chinese currency, Yuan, and come to agree to trade eith each others currencies directly by passing Us dollars, Japan has pupblicly anouned that it acceped as the' 'international currency, Japan has become the 3rd largest trading partners of China after EU and US' For a further info, China has purchesed in March 2.3 Trillion yen (equal to $1.22 trillion) whereas China has ginen an approval to Japan to purchse Chinee bonds in an amount equal to US $10.3 billion today. What is going on here demontrate clearly a sign of a mutural efforts toward economic further developments of both countries.
By so doing , it will eminate if not to reduce any major war in he pacific region.

in conclusion, China is doing everything it can ti continue to dominate the world vis-a-vis its economic strenth, and thus, there is no room to enteratin any act of marjor war in the region let alone on world scale. Futher, any talk about a worldwide war is all preconcived an all in their heads.

[China Connection]

The so called chain of command here is a subject open to debate. There is one thing for sure and that is if war broke out on a changeover of leadership then the military here would be its own boss. From what I real it is already more or less.

Now the thing with China and the world economy. If Europe and the US head into hyperinflation as I believe will happen and imports drop off the cliff face due to the spending power of the average worker / middle class in the West along with big unemployment and China has massive unemployment in its cities then I would expect both the US and China to get into conflicts to externalize home front problems. Nowhere have I suggested that China would dream of taking on the US on purpose signal handed. If Russia were to make a first strike on the US then yes I could see China joining in. However China making the first move no.

[scandiwoman]

CC....I have a friend who is planning on moving to the Philippines soon....is he going to be in a bad way by thinking he can live there and be better off than in America? His thoughts are that Asia is going to rise and be prosperous!

[China Connection]

Well aside from what is going on between China and the Philippines the Philippines is no longer that cheap for living. A lot shift to places at a big cost then find that it is not to their likings but find themselves stranded because of costs. For instance if I have to leave China I have to leave a lot of stuff meaning give it away to friends. If you live out of a bag but, like plenty do then you have to put up with a lack of comforts. I live more or less like I might not see the next year in. I live my life fairly much for the now in lots of ways. Sure I might have regrets but I also might not.


//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

http://forum.liveinthephilippines.co...ily-reactions/

And if you are making the move strictly on cost considerations, I believe that is a dangerous reason. It is _not_ that cheap here. Based on how prices have climbed steadily here in recent years and how many prices in the US have fallen because of the bad US economy in recent years, the cost differential has shrunk significantly during my 5.5 years "in country".

There's an old salesman's saying that isn't far from the truth, ""The bitterness of poor quality lingers long after the sweetness of low price is forgotten."

I'm still here, in the Philippines, and I'm not looking to go back to the US any time soon, but I just got off the phone this am with my son in Colorado,and we were comparing utility bills, food costs, gasoline prices etc.

With the exception of winter heating bills, Pueblo, Colorado beats the prices I'm paying here, hands down. Making the move based solely on costs is, in my opinion, using the wrong yardstick..



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[scandiwoman]

cc....if war breaks out, will it be any safer there than here in the US?