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So, you mix Bird Flu with Peak Oil and you get...
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  1. #1

    So, you mix Bird Flu with Peak Oil and you get...

    ...what?

    Let's take two of the most popular/urgent scenarios of the day and mix them together as it seems likely they will do.

    The price of fuel is steadily rising (for various reasons) while an incipient pandemic may be building in Asia soon to spread worldwide (maybe).

    How will these two scenarios interact and possibly heterodyne with each other?

    Speculate.

    .....Alan.

  2. #2
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    Oil shortages/price hikes may actually slow the spread of H5N1. Less travel.

    Tweak

  3. #3
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    Or vice versa. Mandatory quarantines will reduce the need for oil/gas for all those commuters.
    Really this topic is too broad Allan. I have problems trying to wrap my mind around everything PeakOil will affect all by itself.

  4. #4
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    So, you mix Bird Flu with Peak Oil and you get...
    ....tar & feathered!?

  5. #5

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by EdPPCLI
    Or vice versa. Mandatory quarantines will reduce the need for oil/gas for all those commuters.
    Really this topic is too broad Allan. I have problems trying to wrap my mind around everything PeakOil will affect all by itself.
    Better broaden your mind then Ed, because if both of them come on the way the various folks who study such things tell us they might they sure as heck are going to complicate matters.

    There's no reason that two or more scenarios cannot be happening at the same time. Sort of like the cometary impact and resulting nuclear war in <i>Lucifer's Hammer</i>.

    .....Alan.

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    gillmanNSF - that has to be one of the best quips EVER! Made me laugh right out of my chair.

    garnetgirl

    okay - back to Alan's thread....this is serious stuff, folks....wish I had something to contribute...

  8. #8
    Well...potentially a strong decrease in global oil demand if it takes hold in China, as various reports have indicated is a real possibility. If it were serous enough there would be the clear potential of slowing down China's breakneck-speed growth. On the positive side that could give us more time to devote to pursuing alternative energy options (which we will, of course, squander every bit of...sales of SUVs would probably take off again). On the negative it could cause China to stop supporting our debt habit.

  9. #9
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    Food Would Be In Short Supply & Cost More

    Food prices will continue to esculate due to the cost of fuel.. Also, the shepple may not be able to buy food due to the inability of grocery stores to recieve and keep groceries on the shelf. This would happen with both scenerios.

    A quarantine would forbid shopping.

  10. #10
    Well, Alan, I could see international tensions rising a notch, the economy taking a kick in the family jewels, and perhaps some supply line problems that could result in some relatively minor food shortages and the like.

    What I don't see happening is violent unrest in the population, here or anywhere else because the pandemic will effectively paralyze folks and prevent or subdue crowd gatherings. And I don't believe any acts of war would be a result of these developments either ... and least not in the near- or medium-term.

    If there would be a silver lining, it could be that folks everywhere will have to be a bit more locally cooperative in a number of ways to get thru the bumps in the road and there would also be a bit more of a preparedness movement that would take shape going forward because of the minor (for most) difficulties that would be experienced.

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  11. #11
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    I certainly don't like the image of multiple dooms heterodyning...

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by gillmanNSF
    ....tar & feathered!?


    Thanks, I needed that!

    Let's see, Bird Flu and Peak Oil....if both happened at the same time, one as a pandemic and the other as a crisis, there'd be nothing left but panic of the sheeple.

    Let's just hope not. I believe we'll see the oil crisis. Not sure about the flu pandemic. As yet, as far as I've read, this flu hasn't "readily" jumped human to human yet. By readily, I don't mean it hasn't happened, just not to the point of pandemic yet.

    Maybe in a year or two, maybe this winter, who knows.

  13. #13
    a good excuse to stay home!

  14. #14
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    I see it as a possible excuse for a foreign power to make a move on a country weakened by the pandemic to secure resources. I keep reading about the possibility of H5N1 spreading to the Middle East from Russia. “IF” it does start spreading to humans with the conditions in the Middle East and Africa I believe the death toll would be staggering and Russia has stated that they are working on an inoculation program so what would prevent an invasion to secure needed resources.

    The only option we would have to prevent it would be nuclear and we know what that would trigger

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Tweakette
    Oil shortages/price hikes may actually slow the spread of H5N1. Less travel.

    Tweak
    Birds don't need oil to fly.

    Take a look at Henry Niman's map of the current migration from Qinghai lake: http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_Ma..._QinghaiL.html

    Humans are not spreading H5N1 at this point. Regardless of the oil shortage/price hike, our world will still be more accesible than it was back in 1918. The Spanish flu spread quite well then, Bird flu will spread even better now should it turn into a pandemic for humans.

  16. #16
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    So what you are asking is, what will happen should huge numbers of people die and the price of everything rises?

    If enough folks die, the price of goods should start to fall, right?
    "Dark and difficult times lie ahead. Soon we will all face the choice between what is right, and what is easy."
    Dumbledore to Harry Potter, Goblet of Fire.

    Luke 21:36

    A people who no longer recognize sin and evil, are not a people who will recognize tyranny and despotism either. Invar

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by A.T.Hagan
    ...what?

    The price of fuel is steadily rising (for various reasons) while an incipient pandemic may be building in Asia soon to spread worldwide (maybe).
    .....Alan.

    Dateline 20XX:

    It has become clear that rising oil prices are here to stay. They have been increasing 30% annually -- and the rate is increasing. Production has dropped significantly. The government is investigating claims that the major oil companies are pumping at less than capacity, effectively storing their oil in the ground while prices continue to rise.

    Leisure travel is nearly unheard of. Gasoline and diesel is still available, but expensive. A transcontinental plane ticket costs a full month's pay. Almost no one "commutes" anymore, unless by bicycle or foot. Companies have opened dormatories in their office buildings and shortened the work-week to four -- and sometimes fewer -- days.

    The US economy is in recession. The tourism industry is almost gone. Trucking, (imported) electronics, automobiles, prepared foods and construction have been hit hard. California's central valley has started to revert to desert -- without cheap transport, the market just isn't there for exotic fruits and vegetables. Grocery stores are stocking only locally grown and produced items. Convienience foods are rare and expensive. Unemployment is at 12% and holding steady (for now).

    There are a few bright spots in the economy. Attendance at movie theaters is up. Inexpensive restaurants are doing alright. Local farmers are expanding their plantings.

    The federal deficit has grown to 15% GDP, and national debt has surpassed 100% GDP. Yields on treasury bonds are 7.5% and rising. There is talk of a Social security default, and medicare funding has already been cut.

    And then flu arrives.

    There had been cases of H5N1 in the news in SE Asia for months. Nothing widespread, but people were dying. Then a dockworker in LA found dead in his apartment. CDC comes in and doses everyone it can find. We think we've dodged the bullet, but then a handful of cases appears in the LA area two weeks later.

    (somebody else's turn now!)

  18. #18
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    Here is one idea for half of your question


    Flu pandemic could trigger second Great Depression, brokerage warns clients


    Article in the Flu thread


    http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=162137

  19. #19
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    1. I dont see these two scenarios as future hypotheticals - the question is at what rate will these two current and established, but not mutually exclusive, trends progress.

    2. We (Big We as in everyone) need more specifics from China on the H5N1/Bird Flu/Swine Flu/Ebola/SARs virus(virii) that is(are) loose in China:

    a1. Was this a deliberate release from a Chinese bioweapons lab?
    a2. If it was a release, are the Chinese sending a message/warning much like an underground nuclear test?

    b. Or is it a release from a lab due to poor biocontainment protocols?

    c. Is a purely natural phenomena?

    d. Is China deliberately trying to cull their population (he population on the Planet) to reduce demand constraints on finite resources?

    Based on what I read here and eslewhere I would rate probabilities for the above as follows:

    a1: 50% likely
    a2: 25% likely
    b: 40% likely
    c: 10% likely
    d. 20% likely

    Note the above options are not mutualy exclusive.

    If these Chinese bugs are gentically engineered - then we have a MUCH Bigger Problem(s), likely requiring a Manhattan/Apollo style project to combat the Outbreaks.


    Or we are on the Leading Edge of the Global DIEOFF.

    3. Bird Flu in China will IMO increase their demands for fossil fuels - the population currently being hit hardest are rural peasants, not the big city fuel consumers. The Chinese mobilization in response to the outbreaks appears to be massive utilizing all available high tech - read higher fuel consuming - tools.

    4. The US and China are on a path of Confrontation over depleting resources. Cost is only one half the problem - the other half of the Peak Oil issue is availability. Higher prices do not create Oil. So sooner or later, I think this leads to major power confrontation - aka War.

    My simple wild *ss guess - is that China has elected to cull their population of rural "troublemakers" or if not troublemakers than "potential troublemakers" so that Chinese rural output can be increased and rural demand reduced.

    If true - this is the first shot of the next war, but no other nation can do anything about it, because China shot themselves.

    As these two trends "heterodyne" I think we can expect in next 5 - 10 years if not sooner:

    Wall Street Crash

    Massive Unemployement

    Most of the world falling into the Failed State status (which is lower than Third World status. Failed States being defined as governements that are unable to provide basic .gov services and maintain a rule of law).

    Civil unrest

    Border wars

    Reduced public health levels

    Reduced lifespans for all - elite to poor

    Dieoff to levels so that local populations can be sustained based on local resources.


    As to surviving the above - I think it is an exercise in statistics and the odds are 5 out of 6 wont make it and that may be optimistic, as the Decline could overshoot on the down side by as much as it has overshot the sustainable carrying capacity on the up side.

    50- 100 years from now I think the survivors MIGHT have a chance at creating a sustainable society based on local renewables with some trade.

    Any LARGE SCALE switch to renewables now is so extremely difficult to be very unlikely:

    1. Investment requires a diversion of existing depleting resources which hastens the depletion and limits the amount of renewables that can be installed in short term.

    2. Renewables provide Much, much lower EROEI meaning they are not able to replace fossil fuels at anything approaching current per capita consumption rates.

    3. Renewables are diverse and distributed sources of energy - I havent seen any realistic plans for making steel, glass, concrete/cement, pulp/paper, chemicals etc using renewables on a scale that could repalce a substantiual fraction of our current fossil dependent manufacturing.

    4. The life expectancy in the USA in the late 1800s was less than 50 y.o; developement of large scale renewables will require a large population of commited and qualified personnel. In a Crunch situation, I expect most will be more focused on localized survival and not on large scale production of renewable energy machines.

    5. So the renewable option is not a uniform solution, not one for All, everywhere, but rather is a small limited option for the few that self select themselves pre-Crunch and develop localized and sustainable resources.

  20. #20
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    I (IMO) think the convergence of the two is QUITE likely myself.......and it will result in a return to a much more primative lifestyle.....If they both hit at the same time, quite possible, or a period of over-lap, there will be shortages in almost everything...food, medicine, medical care (due to health care professionals being ill and lack of transportation to medical facilities)
    REFRIGERATION for food & perishables), A/C & heating, transportation, cash, plastics, rubber, steel, metal, concrete, wood, lumber, any thing you can think of . Manpower & technology will be reduced due to many being sick....or dying. Looks like we are in for a thrilling next several years....
    There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn't an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag... We have room for but one language here, and that is the English language... and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people."Theodore Roosevelt-1907.

  21. #21
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    If the NWO has decided that there isn't enough oil to go around, and if they have decided that the only way to conserve this precious resource is to have fewer consumers of same, and if the NWO decided to unleash a plague for which only a few have the vaccine, well then, they have solved a really big problem for themselves, haven't they?
    "Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving
    safely in an attractive and well preserved body, but rather to skid in
    sideways, chocolate in one hand, martini in the other, body thoroughly used up,
    totally worn out and screaming "WOO HOO ! WHAT A RIDE!"

  22. #22
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    Also, if there truly IS a Peak Oil crisis, then ANYTHING made from petroleum, including the BULK of health care supplies will be soon gone. Anything plastic......think of what we wouldn't have.....it is mind boggling. This in itself will contribute to a huge health care crisis, even without a bird or swine flu.
    "Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving
    safely in an attractive and well preserved body, but rather to skid in
    sideways, chocolate in one hand, martini in the other, body thoroughly used up,
    totally worn out and screaming "WOO HOO ! WHAT A RIDE!"

  23. #23
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    Another scenario to consider is the global depression brought on by the pandemic and the lack of oil based products and lack of affordable transportation. After the rioting and the initial dieoff I think we would see smaller communities establish themselves and life would once again go forward. I don’t know if we would fall to the feudal stage but my lack of faith in mankind leads me to believe that the violence would last for a long time. Something along the lines of Warrior tribes maybe?

  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Jim in MO
    Something along the lines of Warrior tribes maybe?

    Mad Max - Thunderdome senario... smelting of tires for gasoline, solar powered bikes or go carts, life on batteries.. maybe if we're lucky
    [size=-2]Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies,
    in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.
    Dwight D. Eisenhower, U.S. general and 34th president (1890-1969)[/size]

  25. #25
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    "What I don't see happening is violent unrest in the population, here or anywhere else because the pandemic will effectively paralyze folks and prevent or subdue crowd gatherings. "

    If these scenarios result in people having great difficulty in getting food and other necessities, I'm afraid you'll see some real unrest and violence.

  26. #26
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    A good start to global de-population . Didn't you guys get the memo?
    Fail to Plan, Plan to Fail!

    Be a teacher by not showing what you can do, but by showing what the student can do.

    If you ever find yourself in a fair fight.............your tactics suck!!!


    Better to be a student of reality, than a master of illusion.

  27. #27
    Bump.

    .....Alan.

  28. #28
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    I would really like to see more input on this

  29. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by nharrold
    "What I don't see happening is violent unrest in the population, here or anywhere else because the pandemic will effectively paralyze folks and prevent or subdue crowd gatherings. "

    If these scenarios result in people having great difficulty in getting food and other necessities, I'm afraid you'll see some real unrest and violence.
    Yep, IF people are not getting their basic needs met, then you have the ingredients for social upheaval. But our natural tendency here is to assign that potential (if not "certainty") to most any imaginable scenario of the hour. Will it happen someday in the U.S.? Probably ... but not in the way we would have foreseen long before it actually starts to brew.

    Of course you might say it's starting now. A worst-case global flu pandemic that kills indicriminately is the fear. It still remains to be seen how this current variant is going to play out.

    I do take the pandemic risk seriously, and I don't like what the price of oil is doing, but I'm not anywhere near ready to hoist a distress flag. The "system" and all its attendant mechanisms, as well as all the fallback mechanisms that keep the gears turning are fairly resilient and adaptable. Short-term hiccups are always possible somewhere ... major longer term failures will take some VERY large catastrophes to strike that are unanticipated to occur.

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  30. #30

    From Martin's link above regarding Bird Flu knocking world into depression:

    "Even if a pandemic were mild, it is estimated that about a third of the world's population would fall sick over a period of months and millions would die. If the strain is virulent, the toll could mount to scores of millions of deaths, over a period of only 18 to 24 months.

    Cooper reminded investors of the economic devastation SARS wreaked on affected cities or countries, including Toronto. But even with that fresh experience to draw from, she admitted it was hard to envisage how widespread the implications of a flu pandemic might be.

    "It is a big, big issue. I mean, it's almost imponderable," she said. "I have to admit: the more research I did, the more frightened I became."

    Still, she urged investors to embrace prudence, not succumb to panic.

    "We wouldn't want everyone to go running out and dump all their investments and bury cash in their mattresses, because it would only accelerate the crisis - at least the financial crisis. But I don't believe people would do that anyway," Cooper said.



    http://www.940news.com/nouvelles.php?cat=22&id=81690"


    Alan's questions regarding the Flu and oil shortage hitting at the same time apparently came at a very good time. We all have some thinking to do!

    IMO,

    Woolly

  31. #31
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    Less gasoline to cremate the millions of bodies!

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