8-28 - Hurricane Katrina Thread - UPDATE: 175 MPH Cat.5

Ruckmanite said:

It's availability. Depending on the damage to the rigs and those refineries, I'm willing to bet there won't be gas at any price in some locations in a month at most. IIRC, 25% of our home production comes from the Gulf. That is roughly 1.5 million barrels/day. Say we lose half the production rigs for a while.

The LOOP terminal off Port Fourchon is the only facitlity in the nation that can offload VLCC's and SLCC's (very large crude carriers, etc) at a rate of 1 million barrels per day. That shut down Saturday. You just can't offload a super tanker anywhere due to the deep water draft those monsters require.

If that facility is severely damaged, and the infrastructure of the pipelines is damaged from sub surface land slides per IVAN, then we have lost some >10% of our 20 million barrels/day for some extended period of time.

Ecuador has stopped exporting fuel to the US due to internal strife, but that is a small amount.

John, correct me if I'm wrong here, but I'm using rough numbers to try to put a few facts on the forecast you made, and I'm thinking you are dead on.

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You're pretty much on the money. You're looking at an Oilstorm type scenario here. Not only will oil be impacted. Coffee and sugar are processed through the port of New Orleans in huge amounts. You're also talking about bottlenecking the destination point for the barges coming south on the Mississippi River.

The economic impact, IN MY OPINION, will be to shave an immediate 1% off GDP and cause another 3% increase in real price inflation.

Not to mention bankrupting Delta Airlines, and a couple of insurance carriers.

Reborn said:

You didn't think about all the possibilities that your statement includes. There are people who live in N.O. who will go to a LOCAL Hotel. They may not be thinking very clearly at this moment. You have no idea what might be going on in their minds. If parents can leave their pets and children in hot cars to cook to death during normal times, then folks can easily make mistakes regarding a pet in a car. Heck, they could even FORGET the pet in the car. It has happened before. I was just trying to clarify, to cover all possibilities of human error, and you ATTACK me. Gee, thanks for your compassion. Maybe YOU ought to leave the coffee alone, eh?

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Sorry but evaucation means leave NO now. Today there will be mandatory evac. You didn't qualify your post with "all possibilities"....you made a blanket statement. Higher sea level is higher sea level. I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to understand what I wrote.

I don't think people are going to be evac-ing to a motel in NO when the entire city is going to be like Atlantis........sunk, submerged. Their news and their mayor is telling them flat out to get out.....out mean out of NO, period.

When people flee and they lite in a motel room..........their pet isn't gonna drown in the car in front of the room.....otherwise the people would also drown in the motel room. The people aren't gonna stay in a motel where they will still drown from flooding just like as if they hadn't left NO.

As to forgetting their pets in the car.........the pet will most surely, 100% guaranteed... die if left behind. Some chance of surviving is better than no chance at all.

Cat 5

Well, it looks like it is now a catagory 5 to me.

NEW ORLEANS (AP) - Hurricane Katrina strengthened to a dangerous Category 5 on Sunday with 160 mph sustained wind as residents of south Louisiana jammed freeways in a rush to get out of the way of the powerful storm.
1. The National Hurricane Center put out a special advisory on the hurricane's gain in strength just before 8 a.m. EDT. The boost came just hours after Katrina reached Category 4, with wind of 145 mph, as it gathered energy from the warm water of the Gulf of Mexico.
"People need to take this very seriously and get to a safe area while they can," said State Police Sgt. Frank Coates.
Katrina, blamed for nine deaths in South Florida, was expected to hit the Gulf Coast early Monday and a hurricane warning was in effect from Morgan City to the Alabama-Florida line.


At 8 a.m., Katrina's center was about 250 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, the hurricane center said. It was moving west-northwest at about 12 mph. Hurricane force-wind of at least 74 mph extended up to 85 miles from the center.
The storm had the potential for storm surge flooding of up to 25 feet, topped with even higher waves, as much as 15 inches of rain, and tornadoes.
Hurricanes as powerful as Katrina usually make unpredictable fluctuations in strength, but all the conditions are there for the storm to still be a Category 5 when it hits the coast, said Chris Sisko, a meteorologist at the hurricane center. Even if Katrina weakened slightly, it didn't bode well for New Orleans.
"With them sitting well below sea level, this is a potential set up for a catastrophic event that has never been seen before," Sisko said.
New Orleans is especially vulnerable because it sits below sea level, and needs levees and pumps to keep out water.

http://apnews.excite.com/article/20050828/D8C8QO100.html

My prayers go out for all who are in the path of this monster.............I am utterly speechless at what I am seeing.........

From Max Mayfield, director, NHC:

"I've been here 33 years, and we've always been concerned about New Orleans," National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield said before Katrina reached Category 5. "I had to let the mayor know that this storm has the potential not only to cause large property damage, but large loss of life if people don't make the right decision."

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This is an article from 2003. When it talks about $3.00 a gallon gasoline remember that gas was only a $1.25 - $1.50 a gallon back then.

Vital Roadway Threatened: Oil Artery Clog Could Impact U.S.

http://www.aapg.org/explorer/2003/09sep/fourchon.cfm

September 2003
By LOUISE S. DURHAM
EXPLORER Correspondent


A river runs ... over it? The Leeville Bridge, isolated by rising waters. So much to worry about, so little time.


Here’s a whole other reason to toss and turn at night:

Eighteen percent of the entire nation’s energy supply depends on a deteriorating, narrow two-lane road surrounded by water in South Louisiana.

This is the southernmost stretch of Louisiana Highway 1, providing the only land-based access to Port Fourchon, which supports 75 percent of all the deepwater oil and gas production in the Gulf, according to the LA 1 Coalition, comprised of private and public stakeholders intent on saving and improving the roadway.

The Port also is the site of the booster pumps that carry crude oil from the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) to underground salt dome storage areas in Galliano, along Highway 1.

Even on a good day, water laps close to the edges of this vital strip of concrete roadway, which not so long ago was surrounded by marshland. Besides its crucial role in the country’s energy supply, the highway serves as the hurricane evacuation route for residents in southern Lafourche Parish and Grand Isle, as well as 6,000 offshore oil and gas employees.

Today, it’s a sitting target for the next big hurricane, which can strike at any time during the annual June 1 to November 30 season.

"We’re kind of the poster child for the infrastructure component of what’s at stake in the coastal land loss issue," said Ted Falgout, director of Port Fourchon. "Our vulnerability to storms has increased tremendously because of the land loss, and the threat to Louisiana 1 is increasing daily.

"It’s since Hurricane Betsy in ’65 since we had a real large storm with the kind of worse case scenario," he said, "where it was to the west and we took the full brunt of the northeast quadrant.

"But it doesn’t take a big storm anymore," Falgout noted. "When Hurricane Bill, which was just a strong thunderstorm, came through recently, our entire roadway was under water."

More than 10,000 vehicles traverse this highway daily going to and from Port Fourchon. A thousand of these are cargo trucks, delivering material to go to the OCS, according to Falgout.

"Port Fourchon is the support base that provides all the widgets and gadgets and things needed to run the offshore oil fields," he said. "Sticking out into the Gulf as we do presents a huge economic advantage for oil and gas operations there.

"The Port has the latest technology and equipment," he added, "and if we lost it, the companies would operate at a huge inefficiency for a long time until the facilities could be reproduced, which wouldn’t happen overnight."

A Vital Operation

A shut-down has the potential to send shock waves through the national economy.

Some analysts predict lost access to Port Fourchon could choke the nation’s energy supply, sending gasoline prices to $3/gallon. The EIA has said if the Port were to shut down for two weeks or more, gasoline would top $2/gallon.

The Louisiana offshore petroleum industry pumps $5 billion a year into the federal coffers, yet no cost sharing mechanisms are in place to mitigate the impacts this activity has on infrastructure and the environment of the coastal areas that furnish the crucial land-side support services.

"We in Louisiana are proud to be in the oil and gas business, and we do it with little fanfare," Falgout said. "It’s part of the fabric of who we are, but it’s impossible to continue at this level of activity without some type of revenue sharing."

Legislation to rectify this situation via "fair share" offshore revenue sharing was included in the energy bill being drafted earlier this year in Washington (see related story).

Should this legislation be enacted, it is anticipated that some percentage of Louisiana’s fair share would go into a special money pot dedicated to infrastructure because the $14 billion the state intends to request from Congress for coastal restoration programs cannot be tapped for these needs. Instead, those funds will be used solely to achieve a sustainable coastline, which will be 17 miles north of the Port, Falgout noted.

Some of these restoration projects, such as barrier island stabilization, will play a role in helping to save the Port itself. In fact, it can be saved rather cost effectively because it has a source of sediment and sand and can exist as an island, Falgout noted.

Thus far, more than $11 million has been amassed from various sources for Highway 1 needs. A part of these funds went toward the now-completed environmental impact statement for a half-billion-dollar elevated four-lane highway, which more than likely will be a toll road. An effort is under way to acquire a federal loan to start construction in late 2004 on the $100 million Leeville bridge, which is the weakest link between Port Fourchon and Highway 90 to the north.

"I like to say we ought to have a world-class highway, and we do," Falgout said. "It’s just that it’s a third-world-class highway.

"At the end of the day, our port plays a key role in somewhere between 16 and 18 percent of the entire nation’s hydrocarbon supply," he noted. "That’s huge; that’s foreign and domestic.

"There’s no other dot on the map more significant to the nation’s energy supply."

They KNEW this was going to be a category 5 yesterday, when the state of emergency was issued 48 hours out.

Fisher said:

This is an article from 2003. When it talks about $3.00 a gallon gasoline remember that gas was only a $1.25 - $1.50 a gallon back then.

Vital Roadway Threatened: Oil Artery Clog Could Impact U.S.

http://www.aapg.org/explorer/2003/09sep/fourchon.cfm

September 2003
By LOUISE S. DURHAM
EXPLORER Correspondent

A river runs ... over it? The Leeville Bridge, isolated by rising waters. So much to worry about, so little time.


Here’s a whole other reason to toss and turn at night:

Eighteen percent of the entire nation’s energy supply depends on a deteriorating, narrow two-lane road surrounded by water in South Louisiana.

This is the southernmost stretch of Louisiana Highway 1, providing the only land-based access to Port Fourchon, which supports 75 percent of all the deepwater oil and gas production in the Gulf, according to the LA 1 Coalition, comprised of private and public stakeholders intent on saving and improving the roadway.

The Port also is the site of the booster pumps that carry crude oil from the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) to underground salt dome storage areas in Galliano, along Highway 1.

Even on a good day, water laps close to the edges of this vital strip of concrete roadway, which not so long ago was surrounded by marshland. Besides its crucial role in the country’s energy supply, the highway serves as the hurricane evacuation route for residents in southern Lafourche Parish and Grand Isle, as well as 6,000 offshore oil and gas employees.

Today, it’s a sitting target for the next big hurricane, which can strike at any time during the annual June 1 to November 30 season.

"We’re kind of the poster child for the infrastructure component of what’s at stake in the coastal land loss issue," said Ted Falgout, director of Port Fourchon. "Our vulnerability to storms has increased tremendously because of the land loss, and the threat to Louisiana 1 is increasing daily.

"It’s since Hurricane Betsy in ’65 since we had a real large storm with the kind of worse case scenario," he said, "where it was to the west and we took the full brunt of the northeast quadrant.

"But it doesn’t take a big storm anymore," Falgout noted. "When Hurricane Bill, which was just a strong thunderstorm, came through recently, our entire roadway was under water."

More than 10,000 vehicles traverse this highway daily going to and from Port Fourchon. A thousand of these are cargo trucks, delivering material to go to the OCS, according to Falgout.

"Port Fourchon is the support base that provides all the widgets and gadgets and things needed to run the offshore oil fields," he said. "Sticking out into the Gulf as we do presents a huge economic advantage for oil and gas operations there.

"The Port has the latest technology and equipment," he added, "and if we lost it, the companies would operate at a huge inefficiency for a long time until the facilities could be reproduced, which wouldn’t happen overnight."

A Vital Operation

A shut-down has the potential to send shock waves through the national economy.

Some analysts predict lost access to Port Fourchon could choke the nation’s energy supply, sending gasoline prices to $3/gallon. The EIA has said if the Port were to shut down for two weeks or more, gasoline would top $2/gallon.

The Louisiana offshore petroleum industry pumps $5 billion a year into the federal coffers, yet no cost sharing mechanisms are in place to mitigate the impacts this activity has on infrastructure and the environment of the coastal areas that furnish the crucial land-side support services.

"We in Louisiana are proud to be in the oil and gas business, and we do it with little fanfare," Falgout said. "It’s part of the fabric of who we are, but it’s impossible to continue at this level of activity without some type of revenue sharing."

Legislation to rectify this situation via "fair share" offshore revenue sharing was included in the energy bill being drafted earlier this year in Washington (see related story).

Should this legislation be enacted, it is anticipated that some percentage of Louisiana’s fair share would go into a special money pot dedicated to infrastructure because the $14 billion the state intends to request from Congress for coastal restoration programs cannot be tapped for these needs. Instead, those funds will be used solely to achieve a sustainable coastline, which will be 17 miles north of the Port, Falgout noted.

Some of these restoration projects, such as barrier island stabilization, will play a role in helping to save the Port itself. In fact, it can be saved rather cost effectively because it has a source of sediment and sand and can exist as an island, Falgout noted.

Thus far, more than $11 million has been amassed from various sources for Highway 1 needs. A part of these funds went toward the now-completed environmental impact statement for a half-billion-dollar elevated four-lane highway, which more than likely will be a toll road. An effort is under way to acquire a federal loan to start construction in late 2004 on the $100 million Leeville bridge, which is the weakest link between Port Fourchon and Highway 90 to the north.

"I like to say we ought to have a world-class highway, and we do," Falgout said. "It’s just that it’s a third-world-class highway.

"At the end of the day, our port plays a key role in somewhere between 16 and 18 percent of the entire nation’s hydrocarbon supply," he noted. "That’s huge; that’s foreign and domestic.

"There’s no other dot on the map more significant to the nation’s energy supply."

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This article deserves its own thread, IMO.

Excellent find, Fisher.





nanna

Zander said:

They KNEW this was going to be a category 5 yesterday, when the state of emergency was issued 48 hours out.

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Which is why President Bush issued the State of Emergency. We are looking at the obliteration of one of America's largest cities.

Amazing.

May we live in interesting times indeed.

Oh, and for all of those that follow my econ threads:

The bulk of the people have already waited too late to leave. They will be spending time sitting on a clogged non-moving highway (instead of reaching a safe destination) when Kat cat-5 comes barreling ashore...then moves up the country.

Pray for these poor souls. Pray for calmness for them in the mist of a storm.....so they can think clearly.

JohnGaltfla said:

Which is why President Bush issued the State of Emergency. We are looking at the obliteration of one of America's largest cities.

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I know, John. That's why I said "they KNEW", meaning they had a damn good idea that it was going to be a 5 and that it was going to hit NO dead on, yet the media kept up their happy talk about it possibly even going down to a 3 and missing NO completely. They knew it all along and should have stressed it all along, so that more people would see the urgency and we'd have less of these die hards stay behind and try to weather it. Damn, I just realized how many puns I dropped.

http://www.gomr.mms.gov/homepg/regulate/environ/techsumm/2001/2001-019 Fourchon.html

(fair use rules!)

Technical Summary : MMS Publication 2001-019
Lafourche Parish and Port Fourchon, Louisiana: Effects of the Outer Continental Shelf Petroleum Industry on the Economy and Public Services, Part 1

BACKGROUND: Port Fourchon, located in Lafourche Parish, Louisiana, is an onshore land base for deepwater offshore oil and gas exploration and development. The port expanded during the 1990’s due to increased deepwater activity on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). Offshore oil and gas activity has had an impact on the port and the local community.

OBJECTIVES: (1) Describe the development and activity of Port Fourchon; (2) describe the impact of OCS deepwater oil and gas exploration on the port and the local community.

DESCRIPTION: The study deals with the OCS deepwater oil and gas exploitation in the Central Gulf of Mexico and its effect on Port Fourchon and the adjacent human community. Port Fourchon is located in Lafourche Parish, Louisiana, in the southwestern part of the state. Impacts discussed in this report include those related to infrastructure such as La. Highway 1 and the supply of potable water as well as effects on law enforcement, education and religion.

SIGNIFICANT CONCLUSIONS: Recent developments in offshore deepwater oil and gas exploration and production in the Gulf of Mexico have brought economic benefits to both Port Fourchon and Lafourche Parish. Increased economic activity is associated with the provision of onshore support for the offshore oil and gas industry. The demands, however, of this growth have meant new challenges for the port and the surrounding community. The condition of the roads, the volume of traffic, and the water system’s current expansion reflect strains on the infrastructure. Municipal and parish officials express concern over the stresses of traffic control, crime prevention and law enforcement. Public school leaders need multilingual, multicultural teachers not readily available.

STUDY RESULTS: Port Fourchon is Louisiana’s only port directly adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico. It is located on the coast of Lafourche Parish and is strategically positioned to serve industrial activity associated with exploiting the vast oil and gas resources offshore in the Gulf. Although a relatively young port when compared with New Orleans of Galveston, Port Fourchon is growing at a visible rate due to the increase of petroleum development on the Outer Continental Shelf.

Two companies had located on port property by 1978; as of August, 1999, there were 124 companies there. Leasing activity on port land increased from 50 lessees and 113 businesses in June of 1998; to 54 lessees and 124 businesses in May of 1999, less than a year later. The physical size of the port has grown from about 25 acres in 1980 to nearly 600 acres as of August, 1999. Port Fourchon is a multi-use port servicing the needs of oil and gas development, commercial fishing, recreation, and shipping as well as providing the land base for the Louisiana Offshore Port Authority (LOOP).

Much of the increase, however, in economic activity attributable to the port from 1994 to 1999 is due to the rapid expansion of oil and gas development in water depths of 1,000 feet (300 meters) or more in the Gulf of Mexico. In addition to its strategic location to service exploitation of these deepwater sites, Port Fourchon has the only facility in the world offering one-stop shopping, as it were. It is called C-Port and allows supply vessels to take on fuel, water, deck cargo, barites, cements, liquid muds and completion fluids all at one place, under a covered dock and in less than 24 hours. Anywhere else, this process would take from two to three days, a heavy cost to ship owners and platform operators.

Such increases are not all positive. The highway system and potable water supply are both inadequate to meet current as well as future demands. Louisiana Highway 1 is the only land access to the port. The highway is a two-lane road with runs along Bayou Lafourche and through several small communities, flooding during storms and often impassable due to weather and traffic accidents. Local business and industry also face shortages in skilled labor. Local schools and law enforcement also are affected by the larger numbers of people in and around the port. Schools and other local agencies must spend more money to meet the needs of a growing population, nearly half of who are Spanish-speaking. Life-long residents are French-Arcadian and not accustomed to people who speak neither French nor English.

Police and sheriff officers now face a near doubling in the number of transients in the parish. According to these officials, transients make enforcement and apprehension more difficult because they are unknown to one another and they lack social ties, which help to maintain law and order in any community. Higher levels of traffic congestion and accidents and fatalities also are results of increased activity offshore. The unique geography of the parish, which is nearly 100 miles long and divided by Bayou Lafourche, combined with the lack of a good secondary road system create major obstacles to traffic flow.

(snip)




nanna

The govt needs to fly in huge troop carriers and evacuate people NOW.

They don't make any that big...

Reports of 55 foot waves out close to the 'cane. NO is seeing a 10-15 foot increase in water on bouys now. (8:41 a.m. Sunday - not predicted to come in until 1 p.m. Monday - sheesh!)

Oh no. Plaquemine's Parrish will impose a curfew at dusk today. People that are still there will not be able to leave after that! (8:47 a.m., Sun.)

Mrs. Peavey, as I recall, the gusts were well over 200 mph during Camille.

It's been a LONG time, but I remember something about them losing the ability to measure just how strong the gusts were.

Didn't something like that happen with Andrew too?

Anyway, originally they called for a storm surge of 12 feet, then it was doubled. That 24-foot wall of water wiped out everything along the coast in Pass Christian, Mississippi.

We were in New Orleans during the hurricane and drove over to Mississippi a short time later. There was nothing but cement slabs where houses/buildings had been. Further back from the coast there were frames but the houses were completely 'gutted'. Behind that were houses that were partially intact, and so on.

I was only 12 at the time but I will never forget the devastation.

Prayers for all of those in the path of this horrible storm.

Haven't read all the posts - so sorry if this is being repeated, but you can watch www.wwltv.com live. They just had a couple of MEMA folk on and they said this the worst senario they could have thought of.

They came in instead of a phone call because they wanted to people to understand how devasting this could be.

Prayers for those of you in the path.

Zander said:

They KNEW this was going to be a category 5 yesterday, when the state of emergency was issued 48 hours out.

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hmm..two things on this...

1. No one 'knew' for sure. The NHC do not give out predictions such as 'hey, it'll be a cat'5 by tomorrow'.
2. No weather situation is 100% predictable.

The president will be well aware of the 'grand scenario' - much as many of us here are. We all know that 'if' the worse happens and 0.25-0.4 million people are still there...that most of them will drown.

Naturally though, politics being politics...no leader is going to say 'hey...if you idiots don't get out, you and your family are probably gonna drown a horrible death. i'm not even sure such stronger words would make any difference to some of the idiots that are currently choosing to stay -even those who have the ability to get up and get the hell out.

*with the storm as big as it is, it hardly matters whether it marginally moves west or east...its still going to be devastating. Baring a shock hard cut to the east....New Orleans is probably in for total destruction by Monday night. Disturbing, which ever scenarion you look at it now.

I just heard on Fox News that it's expected to make landfall in about 15 hours. Which would put it at 12 am CDT. Isn't that about 12-13 hours earlier than what we've been hearing. Maybe I've got this wrong. Anyone else heard the same?

Per James Span one of our local meterologists, Gulf Shores, AL. is now under a mandatory evacuation. I guess they're just not taking any chances.

http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/wxtalk.php

pandora said:

I just heard on Fox News that it's expected to make landfall in about 15 hours. Which would put it at 12 am CDT. Isn't that about 12-13 hours earlier than what we've been hearing. Maybe I've got this wrong. Anyone else heard the same?

Click to expand...

well, originally, it looked around 6am-9am. With the increase in speed from 8-12mph...indeed...a midnight initial landfall now looks possible.
However, it remains difficult to guess..it could slip more east at the last moment....or even stall for a while.

Katrina fooled virtually everyone when it crossed florida...to then move south westwards...it would not surprise me again if it fooled us one final time.

10 AM PRESS CONFERNCE LIVE - NEW ORLEANS

I am up + back in the saddle .. will type notes as they speak in the Conference here for those at work or without TV this morning. I am watching CNN.

Right now, while waiting for this conf to start, the CNN Metereologist is saying that New Orleans is looking to be the epicenter.

He is explaining that if the storm comes in from south-southeasterly direction and makes landfall just west of the city, there will be complete & utter destruction due to the effect of water converging (down in the low area of the city below sea level) from 2 directions. That if the storm comes in just east of New Orleans, then it will be devastating for MOBILE, Alabama.

They have announced there willl also be a Live News Conference in Mobile at 10AM but did not specify if eastern or central time. I think he said they will not cover that one so maybe same time as New Orleans.

A female reporter just mentioned that Max Mayfield has said there could be a large loss of life in New Orleans.

They are talking how there is going to be major devastation for many, many miles inland into southern Louisiana (or Mississippi) when this thing comes onshore. Also to factor in the hundred mile swath that will be on each side of the core at landfall.

I will keep updating in this box through the News Conference.

=======================

(in progress when CNN cut in from commercial)

Mayor of NO is speaking ... "this storm is intensifying" ...everyone he has talked w/ has said this storm is going to impact the city.

He is ordering MANDATORY EVACUATION of the city of New Orleans & now reading the statement.

He listed the various workers that will be exempt from the evacuation. Also they will go into a martial law type scenario and it says they can confisicate any property deemed necessary for this emergency including buildings, services, cars, etc.

His is very stern in emphasizing this storm as a Cat 5 is their greatest fear and now it is coming true.... that he does not want to create panic.

Next he goes into info about the shelters with a list of addresses.

Call 1 800 469 4828 , # by State Police for shelters in other areas + routes to those areas.

Fill bathtubs with water now for use later on. Check on neighbors & help them

All of New Orleans must now come together, rally around each other...

==================

Governor:

Agrees w/ what Mayor said

Speaking of how the loss of power & water etc will be hardship even in outlying areas

Hoping the storm weakens but not likely

No relief in sight with this storm

Startling how accurate the path it is taking matches the predictions

The main evac route is total gridlock now and will have next person address alternate routes

Once outside the city area / urban center it speeds up

===========

Col Whitehorn speaking re the traffic - use alt routes to get out !

Hwy 61 - I 10 east - US 90 - or go to www.lsp.r to see evac maps online

He is being asked about the use of buildings besides SuperDome ... saying that they have identified certain buildings they will use if the SuperDome fails, etc. He will not specify which buildings (I heard interview on CNN earlier that mentioned the Hilton downtown being a very good choice for refuge).

============

Govenor said that Pres Bush had called her this morning...

---------------------


National Guard Rep just spoke that they are preparing and will assist etc,

Now back on with Mayor .. saying they are emphasizing LEAVE THE CITY ... there is a window of opportunity still open.

He is taking questions:

Prisoners will be kept in place during the storm. They have generators...

Some airlines have already cancelled flights and now people are stranded. They cannot find rental cars and having to stay in hotels to shelter during the storm.

=================

CNN has ended .... go to the WX Channel

Col on:
He just said they are going into streets with bullhorns

Someone is handing the Colonel some paper ...

OH MY GOD ... THEY ARE ANNOUNCING - THE STORM IS NOW AT 175MPH SUSTAINED WIND SPEED!!!

There is another man on now saying that winds this high are going to completely destroy the entire electrical infrastructure not only in New Orleans but also across all of southeastern Louisiana (think of other states on right side too + areas west in the swath to left of 60-100 miles westwards of eye)

============

TWC has ended coverage. Dr Lyons of TWC is on live:


He is saying that:

"This storm if it hits right now, would be the 2nd lowest pressure ever recorded in America.

The storm is moving along in a trough and is tighening up even more.

He is saying that people in the southermost areas along coastlines only have more 6 hours before they start feeling some higher winds and heavy rains moving in from outer bands.

pandora said:

I just heard on Fox News that it's expected to make landfall in about 15 hours. Which would put it at 12 am CDT. Isn't that about 12-13 hours earlier than what we've been hearing. Maybe I've got this wrong. Anyone else heard the same?

Click to expand...

Only IF it keeps the same forward speed...

Thanks, Calrissian & John for the explanation.

Calrissian said:

Katrina fooled virtually everyone when it crossed florida...to then move south westwards...it would not surprise me again if it fooled us one final time.

Click to expand...

Agreed!

with authorization to commandere vehicles, buildings and property.

Ooohhhhh,,,,,this is so serious.

This is what NO has feared.....it is coming.

pentagon eye developing

Eye

The mayor or New Orleans just spoke and then the Governor (which got cut off) but they sound and look soooo sad.

Hmmmmm, strange pic of hurricane Katrina

As mentioned above:

BREAKING NEWS: Mayor of New Orleans orders mandatory evacuation of residents as Category 5 Hurricane Katrina targets city. Details soon.

http://www.cnn.com/

NEW ORLEANS - Mayor Ray Nagin ordered an immediate mandatory evacuation Sunday for all of New Orleans, a city of 485,000 people, as Hurricane Katrina bore down on the city with 160 mph wind. Ten emergency shelters were set up, including the Superdome.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050828...wjSsjSs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA3MjBwMWtkBHNlYwM3MTg-

Dreamseer, i agree amen Yahshua.

Gayla said:

As mentioned above:

BREAKING NEWS: Mayor of New Orleans orders mandatory evacuation of residents as Category 5 Hurricane Katrina targets city. Details soon.

http://www.cnn.com/

NEW ORLEANS - Mayor Ray Nagin ordered an immediate mandatory evacuation Sunday for all of New Orleans, a city of 485,000 people, as Hurricane Katrina bore down on the city with 160 mph wind. Ten emergency shelters were set up, including the Superdome.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050828...wjSsjSs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA3MjBwMWtkBHNlYwM3MTg-

Click to expand...

This would be one of the largest evacuations yet...........

Population, 2000 484,674 4,468,976

Population, percent change, 1990 to 2000 -2.5% 5.9%

Persons under 5 years old, percent, 2000 6.9% 7.1%

Persons under 18 years old, percent, 2000 26.7% 27.3%

Persons 65 years old and over, percent, 2000 11.7% 11.6%

175 mph sustained

ALERT

9 AM Advisory:

175 MPH sustained winds

Full advisory text will get posted as soon as the NHC updates their site.

oO

and this is only the end of August.

Hurricane season still has about 4 more months to go.

OddOne said:

ALERT

9 AM Advisory:

175 MPH sustained winds

Full advisory text will get posted as soon as the NHC updates their site.

oO

Click to expand...

Fox reported a few minutes ago that instead of the winds lasting 4 hours that they thought yesterday...now they say 12 hours!!!

Nothing can stand winds like that for that long.

175mph indeed.

190...200 to come?
This may be the new definition of the yet to be listed Cat'6 storm.
----
Why?
Well, as early as yesterday morning forecasters were making it totally clear that Katrina (cat'3) was still to move over the 'hot spot' of water due south of New Orleans. If Katrina can make use of even a small amount of that stored energy...we're looking at the 'doomer storm' people have been touting for almost a decade.

Last call for those who want to leave.....within a few hours it'll be too late.

WTNT32 KNHC 281443
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA...EVEN
STRONGER...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES.

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 907 MB...26.78 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 88.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

Hehehe, Peanut beat me to it.

oO