INTL Brexit Referendum: June 2016

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
Having made a mess of the Dutch Referendum date, I decided to be less specific this time!:D


Because of family obligations, I may not be able to cover this thread regularly. Others are invited to chime in, and of course, our members' reports direct from UK are greatly appreciated!

http://www.politico.eu/article/young-voter-turnout-key-in-brexit-referendum-poll/

Young voter turnout key in Brexit referendum, poll
By
CYNTHIA KROET

4/3/16, 12:16 PM CET

Updated 4/3/16, 12:18 PM CET

Young British voters lean towards keeping the U.K. inside the EU, but a majority still aren’t sure if they will bother turning out to vote in the June 23 Brexit referendum, according to a new opinion poll.

That makes the 18-34 demographic a key element in the fight over whether the U.K. should quit the EU.

An online survey conducted for the Observer and published on Sunday, shows that 52 percent of younger voters were still undecided if they will go out and vote. Of that group, 53 percent said they back Britain’s membership of the EU, the strongest level of support among all age groups, while 29 percent said they wanted to leave.

Among voters older than 55, support for leaving the EU is much higher, with 54 percent favoring a Brexit against 30 percent who want the U.K. to remain in the EU.

In contrast to younger voters, eight in 10 people of this age group said they were certain to vote, which offers an advantage to the Leave campaign.
Education Secretary Nicky Morgan last week urged young people to vote, saying that they will “suffer most if Britain leaves the EU”.

The survey suggests that the Leave side is slightly ahead of the Remain campaign among all age groups with 43 percent backing a Brexit compared to 39 percent favoring Britain’s continued EU membership, 18 percent were undecided.

Authors:
Cynthia Kroet
 
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Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
Strategies for a path forward if the "Leave" campaign doesn't get the winning vote.

http://www.politico.eu/article/euroskeptic-movement-plan-what-comes-after-ukip-brexit/

What comes after UKIP?
The Euroskeptics’ secret post-referendum plan for the party.
By
MATTHEW GOODWIN

3/28/16, 6:23 AM CET

Updated 3/29/16, 2:39 PM CET
LONDON — Britain could vote to remain in the EU but face an altogether new rebellion afterwards.
That is the hope of some of Britain’s most senior Euroskeptics who are already making plans for what could happen in the event that they fail to fulfill their dream of a Brexit. Though opinion polls suggest the race is neck-and-neck — the current “poll of polls” puts Remain on 51 percent and Leave on 49 percent — some of the most influential voices in the Brexit camp are already exploring how to continue their fight should they be defeated on June 23.

Amid a Euroskeptic movement divided into warring factions, influential campaigners and donors are beginning to talk openly about how — should they lose — they could emerge from defeat with a new movement that has much broader appeal. Those around the UK Independence Party (UKIP) have been inspired in part by the Scottish National Party (SNP) that despite experiencing defeat at the 2014 referendum went on to force a complete realignment of politics in Scotland in the 2015 general election.

Influential campaigners and donors are beginning to talk openly about how — should they lose — they could emerge from defeat with a new movement that has much broader appeal.

Those who talk about trying to emulate the Scottish model also share an awareness that in its current form UKIP, which mobilized 13 percent of the vote at that same general election, has taken Euroskeptics as far as they can go. Pointing to how the party has continued to tread water at between 10 and 15 percent in opinion polls, some of the most senior donors and strategists are now actively talking about how to use Britain’s EU referendum as a springboard to launch a more professional successor movement that can reach the 20-25 percent territory.

As one of Britain’s most senior Euroskeptics told me: “UKIP needs to rebrand itself and change after the referendum. There is a huge opportunity coming. You could have that SNP effect where you lose the battle but win the war. I am keen to look at how we can reposition UKIP to take full advantage of that.”

Some point to the sheer quantity of data that Brexiteers will hold after the referendum — detailed information on hundreds of thousands of voters who have either registered their support for Euroskeptic platforms or voted for UKIP during a succession of national election campaigns. Leave.EU, an organization with close ties to UKIP, now has 600,000 fans on Facebook, more than the Conservative Party, Labour, Liberal Democrats and UKIP. It is also revealing that they are now employing the same social media analytical teams that are scraping data for Ted Cruz and others in the United States.

UKIP needs to rebrand itself and change after the referendum. There is a huge opportunity coming —senior British Euroskeptic

One idea floating around is to remodel the 23-year-old UKIP, currently third in the polls, along the lines of the populist Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement in Italy. Instead of a conventional branch-based model, supporters would be organized around “online democracy” and given far more power than UKIP members currently hold. Whether Nigel Farage, who has long held a tight grip over his party, would be content with such a set-up or even be involved is unclear. Either way, prominent Euroskeptics talk of wanting to build a younger, more active support base. “UKIP is seen as an old people’s party,” said one influential donor, “whereas most of the opposition to the EU on the continent is younger.” There is some truth to this. Unlike the ‘Freedom Parties’ in Austria and the Netherlands, both of which are currently sitting comfortably in first place in the polls, or the National Front in France, which is gearing up for the 2017 presidential campaign, UKIP has made little headway among middle-aged and younger voters. Nor has it emulated Marine Le Pen’s inroads among women.

There is also no doubt that Britain’s current political climate would be receptive to a broader movement anchored in cultural conservatism, even if the country votes to remain in the EU. Beneath the specific referendum question lie deeper currents that have been eroding loyalty to the main parties.

Over the past 50 years the proportion of voters who feel only weakly attached or not attached at all to Labour and the Conservatives has surged from one in five to more than one in two. Britain has become less welcoming to the old parties and more open to new ones.

Beneath the specific referendum question lie deeper currents that have been eroding loyalty to the main parties.

Last year Cameron secured a surprise majority but once you account for turnout his power rests on support from just one in four adults — hardly a compelling mandate. Meanwhile, 25 percent of those who went to the polls voted for somebody other than the Conservatives, Labour or Liberal Democrats — the highest figure on record. The collapse of the Liberal Democrats, who show no sign of recovery, further pushes open space for an anti-Westminster alternative.

It is easy to spot cultural concerns, too. Since Cameron’s reelection last May, public unease over immigration has reached record levels. For nine consecutive months voters have identified this issue as among the most important facing Britain. Today a striking 47 percent rate immigration or race as the most pressing concern — it is comfortably in first place, 10 points ahead of healthcare and 24 points ahead of the economy.

Regardless of the referendum result British society is dominated by intense public angst over national identity and borders. Cultural anxieties now trump economics, a reality underscored daily by new public fears over the role of Turkey and Islam in Europe, the refugee crisis and national security.

That these issues hold the potential to further expand support for Europe’s radical right can be seen in the Netherlands and Hungary, where a cultural narrative focused on the defense of Western values is cementing support for Geert Wilders and Viktor Orbán.

Britain’s blue-collar workers have long felt economically left behind by globalization and cut adrift from the established parties that overlooked them in favor of the professional middle-classes

These openings are distinctly unlikely to evaporate were Britain to remain in the EU. Why would they? If anything it is already possible to identify voters who will continue to feel profoundly anxious over the direction of British society.

On the right, Euroskeptic social conservatives will feel betrayed by Britain’s decision to remain and by Cameron who unlike a majority of his supporters is campaigning against Brexit. In polls, typically 48 percent of Conservative Party voters and 60 percent of Conservative Party members back Brexit. There is no reason why, after a Remain vote, these older voters, many of whom will have already voted for UKIP in local or European elections, will suddenly drop their opposition to the EU, free movement and concern that net migration into Britain has now surpassed a record 300,000. For Cameron and his successor, the challenge of keeping disgruntled Tories in the Conservative tent is about to reach all new heights.

Meanwhile, on the left the picture is similar. After the referendum manual workers who share this Euroskepticism are likely to feel even more disconnected from middle-class Labour politicians who will have spent the referendum campaign praising the exact things that make these struggling voters feel so under threat — European integration, a global market, free movement and rapid social change. As elsewhere in Europe, Britain’s blue-collar workers have long felt economically left behind by globalization and cut adrift from the established parties that overlooked them in favour of the professional middle-classes. And like social democrats across the continent, Labour is feeling the full force of this disconnect.

Over the past 20 years the percentage of working-class Britons who reject the idea they are represented by Labour has rocketed, from 7 to 30 percent. This growing dissatisfaction helps to explain why, by 2015, it was UKIP not Labour that held the most working-class electorate in British politics.

Across Europe this combination of social conservatives, insecure lower middle-class, self-employed and blue-collar workers propelled populist forces — from the Danish People’s Party to the French National Front — into positions of serious influence. Meanwhile it is often social democrats, having failed to offer workers a convincing reply to their identity concerns, who are the biggest losers, as we saw again in recent elections in Germany.

The slow decline of Britain’s center-left translates into the biggest opening for a new movement since the initial breakthrough of Labour in the 1920s.

In Britain it could have been even worse for Labour. While Farage talked of “parking his tanks on Labour’s lawn,” UKIP embraced the free market while its libertarian leanings fueled accusations that it wanted to privatize the National Health Service, an institution cherished by the working-class. Unlike the economic protectionism espoused by, say, Le Pen, this prevented UKIP from mobilizing its full support among the working-classes. Were the new movement to press the same buttons as radical right parties in other European states — populist attacks against banks, tax evaders, corporate cartels and the excesses of globalization — then it could be a very different story.

Today blue-collar voters who last year failed to rally behind Labour show little appetite for Jeremy Corbyn, already the most unpopular opposition leader in recent history. The slow decline of Britain’s center-left translates into the biggest opening for a new movement since the initial breakthrough of Labour in the 1920s.

People often argue that Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system offers protection from the much larger populist and radical right revolts that are engulfing Europe. But this ignores the deeper shifts that are making such a realignment look increasingly possible. For these reasons it could be only a matter of time until the secretive plans to build a new populist army translate into a far more impressive breakthrough.

Matthew Goodwin is professor of politics and international relations at the University of Kent and a senior fellow at Chatham House.

Authors:
Matthew Goodwin
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
:shr:This piece reads like I chopped the article off, but I couldn't
find a second page for more.

http://blogs.wsj.com/briefly/2016/04/01/this-weeks-brexit-briefing-at-a-glance-3/

5:04 AM EST APR 1, 2016

In the aftermath of the Brussels terrorist bombings last week, the question of security has moved to the forefront of the debate ahead of the referendum over Britain’s European Union membership on June 23. The Leave campaign has argued that regaining controls over the U.K.’s borders will make the country safer. The Remain campaign retorts that the U.K.’s current arrangements give it control over its borders anyway.

Leavers also say that it’s the relationship with the U.S. in intelligence and defense matters that overwhelms the significance of EU membership. Few deny the importance of the U.S. to the U.K.’s security. Given the state of the presidential election campaign, however, there are questions about how long-lasting U.S. engagement will be. Here’s my take in this week’s column from Brussels.

• Spy Spat
Richard Dearlove, a former head of MI6, and Michael Hayden, a former chief of the U.S. National Security Agency, put the cat among the pigeons, as we noted last week, when they said leaving the EU wouldn’t harm U.K. security. Not everyone in the security world agrees. Pauline Neville-Jones, former head of the Joint Intelligence Committee, wrote in the Guardian that Mr. Dearlove “is presumably unaware of the huge strides made in this respect since he left office in 2004.” Mr. Hayden left the NSA in 2005.

In this post for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Nigel Inkster, former head of operations and intelligence for MI6, takes a different view from his former boss. “The capabilities of Europe’s intelligence and security services are much improved,” he writes.

A former Director of Public Prosecutions, Keir Starmer, argues here that from a law-enforcement perspective, the EU is more effective than the alternative. Also in the Telegraph, former Central Intelligence Agency director David Petraeus saysBrexit would weaken the terror fight. Malcom Rifkind’s take: “Quite simply, the EU is now to internal security what NATO was to military security during the Cold War.”

• We Need NATO, Not EU
There’s also the question of security in the more traditional sense of defense. Many Brexiteers have argued that it isn’t the EU that keeps the U.K. safe but the American-led North American Treaty Organization. But can the U.K. rely on NATO if the Americans lose interest in the alliance? Donald Trump has

alreadyquestioned the need for American involvement in NATO. And Mr. Trump isn’t the only candidate advocating a more introverted U.S. foreign policy. Our Washington colleague Jerry Seib points out that of the presidential contenders from either side left in the race, only Hillary Clinton backs what used to be the mainstream position on international engagement. Read more about NATO inmy Brussels Beat this week.

• Down-At-Heel Steel
Outside the security domain, the EU’s name has been taken in vain on both sides the over the whether the EU helps or hinders the U.K.’s hard-pressed steel industry. The main pressure on steel companies comes from Chinese imports. Earlier this month, the EU presented new plans to support its struggling steel sector, including speeding up the adoption of tariffs on imports that are “dumped” at below-market prices and scrapping rules that limit the level of duties the EU can apply to steel imports.

The European steel industry has long criticized the so-called “lesser duty rule,” which keeps a lid on the level of tariffs on Chinese imports. But the U.K. has opposed EU plans to ax this tool, arguing that such a move could hurt consumers of steel who would face higher prices.

At the same time, the EU has indicated it won’t allow EU governments to prop up companies in the steel sector through subsidies, and has targeted Belgium and Italy for providing unfair state aid to their steel industries. Here’s Raoul Ruparel’s take for Open Europe. Look at the graph on electricity prices, a big issue for an energy-intensive industry.
 

Richard

TB Fanatic
As I understand younger voters are less likely turn out to vote in elections compared with older people, 42/44% compared with 65%, this may not apply to the EU referendum.
 

jenzie

Membership Revoked
it'll still be a NO VOTE, since britains can't bear leaving something but always bitch about it .....
 

Richard

TB Fanatic
it'll still be a NO VOTE, since britains can't bear leaving something but always bitch about it .....

Do the SNP Scots want to stay in the EU or not from your point of view?

The EU was originally sold as a Common Market but has since established itself as an international Government with no national democracy. Can you tell me what democracy exists within the EU?
 
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Be Well

may all be well
Do the SNP Scots want to stay in the EU or not from your point of view?

The EU was originally sold as a Common Market but has since established itself as an international Government with no national democracy. Can you tell me what democracy exists within the EU?

What is your take on how the voting will go?
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
I have question arising from post#2 about the future for UKIP. It sounds as if they are thinking about dropping some of the libertarianism and going for more of the populist themes. But can they do that without the thuggery that came with the old British Nationalist Party?
 

jenzie

Membership Revoked
Do the SNP Scots want to stay in the EU or not from your point of view?

The EU was originally sold as a Common Market but has since established itself as an international Government with no national democracy. Can you tell me what democracy exists within the EU?

absolutely they do, that's why they dragged up the old "independence" thing again, like a dead whale .....

oh and europe VOTES FOR MEPS .....

and this whole "the EU isn't democratic" is UTTER CRAP, since every government has a civil service!
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
Farage hopes that a "No" vote in the Netherlands will lead to a "Leave" vote in the UK.

http://www.breitbart.com/london/201...-amsterdam-campaign-wednesdays-eu-referendum/

UKIP’s Nigel Farage In Amsterdam For WEDNESDAY’S Little Known Dutch EU Referendum

Getty
by RAHEEM KASSAM4 Apr 201647
UK Independence Party (UKIP) leader Nigel Farage is in Amsterdam in the Netherlands today to help the country’s Eurosceptics campaign in a referendum on the European Union scheduled for Wednesday.
The referendum, which isn’t about EU membership, but rather, an EU ‘association agreement’ with Ukraine, is being treated as a harbinger for how the British referendum result may end up if the ‘Out’ or ‘Leave’ campaigns manage to capitalise on the rising eurosceptic sentiment across Europe.

The referendum is only the second in the country’s recent history, and will ask members of the Dutch public if they support the EU’s 2014 association agreement with Ukraine – a document widely believed by eurosceptics to have provoked Russian action against EU expansionism.

Three non-governmental groups are largely responsible for the 6 April referendum.
As reported on Breitbart London, the GeenStijl blog gathered nearly half a million signatures in favour of having a popular vote on the issue last year.

“We want the EU to stop in its tracks and think for a minute and first solve the democratic shortcomings” said Bart Nijman, founder of the campaigning arm of GeenStijl, accordingto the Financial Times.

While Wednesday’s vote is technically non-binding, most political parties in the Netherlands have said that they will abide by the result, meaning that the country’s Prime Minister Mark Rutte – a good person friend of Britain’s PM David Cameron – may have to work to reverse the implementation of the agreement in his country.

A poll by Maurice De Hond on Sunday forecast that 66 percent of people certain to vote would back ‘No’, with only 25 percent in favour, with turnout likely to be decisive in shaping the final result. Pollsters TNS Nipo have forecast turnout of 32 percent, just above the 30 percent threshold that is needed for the referendum to be valid.

“Dutch opinion is divided 50-50,” pro-EU activist Bogdan Globa told the Kyiv Post in March, “But it’s more likely that the Dutch will say ‘no’ to Ukraine. Too many of them are still afraid of the war in the east of Ukraine. They also think Ukraine could be another Greece.”

Global Britain director Brian Monteith explained this weekend in the Scotsmannewspaper: “While on paper the Dutch ¬referendum is about some in the Netherlands not wanting to finance Ukraine, or be responsible for migrants from there when they are granted visa free travel, in reality it puts the issue of the European Union on the table and is being seen by many in the country as a referendum on the Dutch attitude towards the EU.

He adds: “The European Union’s association agreement with Ukraine, negotiated between 2008 and 2012, is more than just a free trade deal; were it only that then the break down in relations between the Ukraine and ¬Russia would probably have been avoided.

“Instead it involves the EU in the reform of Ukrainian institutions and laws is all about paving the way for the Ukraine to become a full ¬member of the EU.

“It introduces wholly ¬unnecessary military links with the European Union by establishing military dialogue, technological co-operation and the possibility of joint ¬participation in EU missions.
“It naturally includes visa free travel to the EU that would open the door to Ukraine’s 44 million people in ¬addition to the visa free travel recently granted to Turkey’s 78 million inhabitants.”

The Ukrainian President, Petro Poroshenko, is clearly alarmed by the Eurosceptic feeling in the Netherlands, telling a Washington, D.C. meeting last week: “The real purpose for the internal Dutch discussion is about the future of the European Union and internal political clashes… I think this is very dangerous for a country … to become the victim of this discussion. This is not a timely referendum.”
“Most people in the UK don’t even know it’s happening, and although it’s on a technical point, if the Dutch vote decisively in a ‘no’ direction, it will have an impact on the UK referendum,” Farage told The Sunday Times.

Mr. Farage will campaign with the Voor Nederlands team which partners with UKIP in the European Parliament. It is thought that he will intentionally avoid campaigning with the Party for Freedom led by anti-Islamisation firebrand Geert Wilders. According to EuObserver, Mr. Farage has said a Dutch No “will help in Britain too
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
Time to update this thread a bit.

http://www.politico.eu/article/why-...-referendum-election-branding-leave-campaign/

Why ‘Project Fear’ is a good thing for Remain
It is not scaremongering to warn of the very real risks of Brexit.
By
CHRIS HIRST

5/10/16, 5:33 AM CET

Updated 5/11/16, 11:57 AM CET
In what has been a messy “neverendum” so far, one undeniable success stands out: the Leave campaign’s move to brand the Remain camp’s strategy as “Project Fear.”

It was hardly a stroke of genius to divine that the Remain side would occasionally mention the risks of leaving, and then for the leave side to dismiss those claims as scaremongering. But what is particularly clever here, is to claim that the Remain camp is only motivated by one thing: fear.

We are all old-hands at referendums now. In Scotland, as in the wider U.K. today, Leave built an emotionally charged argument around the liberating freedom of being unshackled from a hegemonic power. Remain, meanwhile, argued stolidly for the security of the status quo. Leave proponents called it scaremongering. Remain called it realism.

Nicola Sturgeon herself recently bemoaned the negativity of both sides’ campaigns. It’s hard to disagree with that sentiment, but there are two major reasons why we shouldn’t expect anyone to set out a positive vision for Europe and our future in it.

First, the whole debate is being thrashed out in increasingly bitter slanging matches between two divided sides of the same party — the Conservative Party — that has put the boot into Europe for decades. Hardly the setting for a positive debate about opportunity and hope.

Second, the Remain camp won in Scotland. Fear, it seems, does work.

In general, I have always felt that negativity is a poor way to sell to people. Most great campaigns work because they have at their heart a positive message that people want to be associated with.

But campaign devices also rely on a well-known part of human psychology: loss aversion. People would rather avoid a loss than reap a reward. In simple terms we feel a greater sense of loss at losing £5 than we feel rewarded by gaining £5.

Recent Treasury figures claimed that a vote to leave the EU would result in an average loss of £4,300 per U.K. household. Like an unbalanced seesaw, Leave would have to rustle up a number significantly larger for our bank accounts to sway the vote.



Of course the voting intentions of millions of people are many times more complicated than a simple sum. What we do know is that getting people out to vote is a major preoccupation in every election campaign. Here again, fear can play an important role.

Those arguing for the status quo will find it harder to generate the same levels of passion and vigor.
With three weeks to go before voting day in Scotland, a poll suddenly showed a large and decisive shift to the Independence camp. Up until that point Better Together had held a consistently stable lead. With the poll, everything changed. Politicians from Westminster rushed north with wild promises and pledges. The poll introduced fear into the hearts of even the most lackadaisical Unionist — and persuaded them that their vote would count.

Inevitably, those arguing for the status quo will find it harder to generate the same levels of passion and vigor as those who clamor for change. In that sense, perhaps Remain does need the fear of a campaign-defining poll to ensure their supporters get out and vote.

It is not a reflection of a lack of imagination on the part of spin doctors or campaign managers. Fear can play an important role in swaying the result. But to be clear: It is not scaremongering to warn of the very real risks of Brexit.

In truth, we should remember that “Project Fear” is simply a clever piece of election branding intended to undermine Remain’s greatest electoral strength — the power of their economic argument.
Chris Hirst is European and U.K. group CEO at multinational advertising and public relations company Havas.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
Cameron's lates attempt to use fear in the "Stay" campaign is to declare that leaving the EU would lead to more war. This expert disagrees.

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/09/camerons-threat-of-post-brexit-war-is-beyond-parody/

Col. Richard Kemp: Cameron’s Threat Of Post-Brexit War Is Beyond Parody – Our EU Membership Brings Great Danger

Getty/Wikimedia Commons
by COLONEL RICHARD KEMP9 May 2016330

In his most high profile European Union (EU) speech to date, British Prime Minister David Cameron asked yesterday: “Can we be so sure that peace and security on our continent are assured beyond any reasonable doubt?” He need only look around him for an answer to that question.

In recent months both Paris and Brussels have had inflicted upon them the most devastating attacks since the end of the Second World War.

Right wing nationalism is on the rise as failed financial systems cause poverty, despair, and economic collapse and citizens realize they are no longer in control of their destinies. Anti-Semitism, especially by Muslims, is rampant across the continent. Jews are afraid to be publicly identified and are leaving Europe in droves.

Swedish cities are in uproar as they are flooded with immigrants and their citizens subjected to rioting, abuse, violence and rape.

On the EU’s eastern border, Russian intervention in Ukraine has cost more than 8,000 casualties. Despite EU diplomatic action provoking Russia, the EU remains powerless other than contributing to international sanctions with limited effect.

This is not an apocalypse, but it is a foretaste of far worse to come. And it has been brought about mainly by the policies of the EU.

Yet, in words that seem like parody, Mr. Cameron begs us to vote to remain in the EU for our own safety. He cites Blenheim, Trafalgar, Waterloo, and the First and Second World Wars when British heroism saved the continent.

The Duke of Marlborough, Churchill’s ancestor and victor at Blenheim, would certainly have voted for Brexit. His greatest victory was won against Louis XIV’s France when he destroyed the prospect of a European super state.

To compare the battles, campaigns and wars won by Marlborough, Nelson, Wellington, Lloyd-George, Haig, Churchill, and Montgomery with the pusillanimous conduct of the EU leadership is actually beyond parody. These were men of intellect and steel: valiant, determined, resolute, and unyielding.

The British Army suffered its darkest day 100 years ago on 1st July 1916, when 19,000 men were killed and a total of 57,000 became casualties. Yet the Army fought on for two a half more years until the German aggressors were beaten to a standstill and peace restored to the continent.

The leaders of that war, and Mr. Cameron’s other named conflicts, would have been horrified by the moral relativism, weakness, self-doubt and fear that characterises modern Europe.

Feeble political leadership has deterred and discouraged effective law enforcement, allowing mass rape and sex slavery to go unchecked for years. Jihadists have been able to recruit, train, plot and launch violent mass murder against our citizens. Criminals of all types have escaped deportation to avoid infringing their human rights.

The EU failed to prevent the migration crisis that threatens to overwhelm many European cities and the housing, welfare, health, and education services paid for by the hard work of citizens who have been allowed no say.

The EU failed to deploy effective naval forces along the North African coast to prevent illegal immigration across the Mediterranean. Such action, used to great effect by Australia, would not only have prevented the landing of countless unregulated immigrants on our shores but would also have saved thousands of lives and sent a firm message to both immigrants and traffickers.

It was self-doubt and a desire to expunge the sins of the past rather than strong and principled leadership that led Europe’s most powerful politician unilaterally to invite in migrants from the corners of the earth, to transform German cities and to assault and rape German girls. A policy that opened the doors of Europe to hundreds of thousands of economic migrants, including many young men of fighting age who abandoned their families and their countries; and closed the doors to genuine refugees.

Timorous EU countries failed to take military action against Assad’s regime in Syria when he crossed the chemical weapons ‘red line’. Action that could have ended his reign of terror and prevented the intervention of Russia and Iran that has solidified his position and exacerbated the migrant crisis.

Fearful EU members failed even to contemplate setting up protected safe havens in Syria, where millions of beleaguered people could have taken refuge without the need to move to other countries. This would have required boots on the ground but, terrified by experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan, few if any EU states are prepared to countenance that. Physical danger was not their only fear; they were also afraid to act without United Nations authorization, which would have been vetoed by Russia.

Now, bullied and blackmailed by President Erdogan, the EU is now allowing visa free access to Europe for 70 million Turks and is well on the way to admitting Turkey to full EU membership. Not only will this push back the borders of the EU to Iran, Iraq and Syria, but it will also lead to yet another massive population shift in Europe, without consultation further transforming the way of life of its citizens.
This is the peace and security provided by the EU today.

The ‘defiant, brave and indefatigable’ British heroes cited in Mr. Cameron’s speech would not recognise it as that.

But neither would the leaders of the EU comprehend the words of Admiral Lord Nelson when urging vigorous action against the enemy: “The measure may be thought bold, but I am of the opinion the boldest are the safest”.

Colonel Richard Kemp was head of international terrorism for the UK Joint Intelligence Committee. Jasper Reid, a British analyst specializing in politics, defence and international security, also contributed to this articl
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
While the establishment clings to scary stories about Brexit, the business community appears to be quietly disagreeing.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-11/establishment-scaremongery-escalates-amid-fog-brexit

Establishment Scaremongery Escalates Amid "The Fog Of Brexit"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/11/2016 13:34 -0400


Following PM David Cameron's 'world war 3' warnings last week, Chancellor George Osborne joined the 'Project Fear' bandwagon today saying that Treasury is doing "quite a serious amount of contingency planning" into how Britain would deal with leaving the EU, warning of "very significant financial volatility" around the vote.

Mr Osborne denied he was "fiddling the figures" as he firmly defended an official Treasury analysis which set out the potential damage to the economy that could be caused by Brexit.

He complained that the opinions of a handful of Eurosceptic economists that the UK would be better off outside the EU were being given as much media coverage as the "overwhelming" expert opinion that it would be poorer.

The Chancellor - and senior official Mark Bowman - were grilled about the document, which looked at several post-Brexit scenarios and forecast the effects.

It found that GDP per household would end up £4,300 lower by 2030 - based on the central estimate of the range of outcomes.

The 200-page analysis was branded "dodgy" by critics and some accused the Government of trying to suggest families would each lose that sum - rather than it being a wider economic squeeze, affecting public services and other spending.

The Treasury admits it is doing "quite a serious amount of contingency planning" into how Britain would deal with leaving the EU, Bloomberg reports that George Osborne said - despite previous claims the Government was not preparing for Brexit.

Mr Osborne told MPs that his officials were working on various aspects of the impact of a Leave vote in the June 23 referendum as he was grilled by the Commons Treasury select committee.

David Cameron has been criticised for insisting that civil servants were not planning for the eventuality, despite warning that it would be catastrophic for the country.

As recently as Tuesday his spokesman told reporters: ''We are not doing any contingency planning for the referendum being a vote to leave."

In his evidence to the committee, Mr Osborne said: "I think there would be very significant financial volatility around a vote to leave, and the Bank of England and the Treasury are doing quite a serious amount of contingency planning for the impact on financial stability in the aftermath of a vote to leave.

"I don't think it's appropriate to go into too much detail on that, but we have made public various things, like the fact we would have additional liquidity auctions."

Relief in global markets that a Fed rate hike is less imminent has taken focus away from one of this year’s biggest risk events, at least temporarily, but as Bloomberg's Mark Cudmore explains "The Fog of Brexit" remains...

Markets may not reflect the fact now, but uncertainty around the outcome of the U.K. referendum is increasing -- not decreasing.

The latest poll shows the vote has tightened, while support for Brexit is gaining ground among “senior” business people, according to the British Chambers of Commerce.

The looming vote is already interfering with economic analysis and forecasts. The Bank of England’s Inflation Report tomorrow will emphasize the recent soft data but it may be too soon to determine whether this is a transitory, referendum-related dip or a lasting downturn.

There is even greater unpredictability around the economic effects of the U.K. electing to leave the EU.

According to the U.N., approximately 1.3 million Britons live in other EU countries -– will hundreds of thousands of U.K. pensioners be forced to return home to ensure free healthcare?

Will the U.K. get a sudden jolt of wage inflation if immigrant labor is forced to depart?

A vote for Brexit would also be the first time the union’s process of ever-greater integration has taken a serious backward step.

As markets are reminded that implications won’t be contained within the U.K., risk-reduction could spread to global asset markets as the vote approaches.

Familiarity breeds contempt. Investors may be growing uninterested in the seemingly inconclusive Brexit debates-- but it’d be misguided to be complacent around the threat it poses...
 

thompson

Certa Bonum Certamen
islam_demonstration_jpg_w_1280_h_854.jpg



http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-poll-idUSKCN0Y50QR

UK's Cameron struggles to make Britons believe his EU message: poll

Sat May 14, 2016 2:40pm EDT

Prime Minister David Cameron is struggling to convince voters he is telling the truth about why Britain should stay in the European Union and his main "Out" rival Boris Johnson is doing a better job, an opinion poll found.

Only 21 percent of respondents in the survey carried out by polling firm ComRes agreed that Cameron was more likely to tell the truth about the EU than Johnson while 45 percent said Johnson was more believable than Cameron.

With less than six weeks to go until the June 23 referendum on Britain's EU membership and voters evenly split on how they intend to cast their ballots, the rival camps have stepped up campaigning.

Cameron has warned of the risk of a hit to Britain's economy from a decision to leave the world's biggest trade bloc. Johnson says Britain would flourish outside the EU if allowed to make its own rules, strike its own trade deals and spend its EU budget contributions at home.

The ComRes poll, conducted for the Sunday Mirror newspaper and the Independent website, found 33 percent of respondents believed they would be better off if Britain stayed in the EU, only slightly more than the 29 percent who thought they would be better off if Britain left.

ComRes interviewed 2,043 adults online on Wednesday and Thursday.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney warned on Thursday of the risk of a sharp slowdown in Britain's economy, and possibly a short recession, if the country left the EU.

The ComRes poll did not ask voters how they intended to vote on June 23.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
It is tough to lie when members of your own party call you out on it!

http://www.breitbart.com/london/201...-important-than-economy-for-undecided-voters/

Brexit Poll: Immigration More Important than Economy for Undecided Voters

Dan Kitwood/Getty Images
by DONNA RACHEL EDMUNDS14 May 201642

Voters yet to make up their minds on the European Union (EU) referendum question are twice as likely to cite immigration as their main concern than the economy, a poll has found. The results could explain why the Leave campaign has been gaining momentum in recent days.

According to a Sky News poll, of the 29 percent of Brits who are still undecided on the issue, 28 percent are most concerned about the impact the EU has on immigration levels, whereas just 15 percent cite the economy as their biggest concern.

The results are good news for Leave campaigners who have been focussing on making the public aware of the leading role the European Union has played in driving immigration to Britain into the hundreds of thousands a year, while hampering the British government’s ability to reverse that trend.

The Remain campaign, meanwhile, has been relying on establishment figures in the banking industry to warn of economic doom should the British people dare to opt to leave the Union at the referendum on 23 June.

An intervention by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, in which he warned of recession, inflation, a “sharp” crash in the value of Stirling, lower wages and rising house prices in the event of Brexit led one independent analyst to comment “It was as if George Osborne had written the script.”

The Leave campaign has been gaining momentum steadily over the last four weeks, rising from being eight points behind in mid-late April to a dead heat on 50 percent apiece in the current poll of polls.

Based on Sky’s results, the events of this week could see Leave pull ahead for the first time thanks to the Office of National Statistics’ admission that it has underestimated European migration by 1.5 million people.
Responding to that figure, Conservative Employment Minister Priti Patel said:
“These figures – which had to be dragged out of the government – show the scale and impact of immigration from the EU is even higher than previously admitted.
“It is out of control – and cannot be controlled as long as we stay in the EU.
“The only way we can take back control, and deliver on our manifesto commitment to reduce migration is to Vote Leave on 23 June.”

Even more damningly, the former Tory leader Iain Duncan-Smith has revealed that Germany, not the Prime Minister David Cameron, led the way during Mr Cameron’s renegotiation talks, designed to secure a better deal on EU membership for the UK. They even went so far as to block migration control proposals.
“The Germans said from the outset, you are not getting border control. Full stop,” he said. “They have had a de facto veto over everything
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
More business leaders are coming out in support of Brexit. This is encouraging news.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...back-brexit-business-not-government-creates-w

UK Establishment Stunned As Over 300 CEOs Back Brexit: "Business, Not Government, Creates Wealth"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/16/2016 05:00 -0400


In a shocking slap in the face for UK PM Cameron, more than 300 business leaders are calling on Britain to vote to leave the European Union, saying that the country’s "competitiveness is being undermined by our membership." As The Telegraph reports, the letter, signed by some of Europe's most senior business executives, claims Brussels "red tape stifles growth" and a Brexit would "create more jobs" exclaiming that "it is business - not government - which generates wealth."

Perhaps this explains why Cameron, Osborne, Obama, and almost every other establishment politician and lackey has embraced 'Project Fear' when it comes to Brexit, proclaimingWorld War 3's imminence and all the worst parts of the bible will occur should the great unwashed masses exercise their right to vote for democracy (as opposed to a tyrannical superstate).

In an attempt to redress the balance after the Bank of England and the International Monetary Fund last week warned that a Brexit would damage Britain’s economy, the letter in the Telegraphis signed by 306 business leaders in a personal capacity (and also signed by hundreds of people linked to small and medium-sized businesses). In total the backers of the letter are from businesses employing hundreds of thousands of members of staff.
SIR – Britain is the fifth biggest economy in the world and, on current projections, will overtake Germany to become Europe’s powerhouse. Britain is America’s largest inward investor, and our openness and dynamism mean we attract more inward investment than any other European country.

Three of the world’s top 10 universities are British, we speak the international language of business, our legal system is trusted round the world and we have an unrivalled reputation for innovation and creativity.

These are just some of the reasons we believe that Britain is world-class. However, we also believe that Britain’s competitiveness is being undermined by our membership of a failing EU.

Year-on-year the EU buys less from Britain because its economies are stagnant and millions of people are unemployed. According to Mervyn King, the former governor of the Bank of England, the euro “might explode”. Brussels’ red tape stifles every one of Britain’s 5.4 million businesses, even though only a small minority actually trade with the EU.

It is business – not government – which generates wealth for the Treasury and jobs for our communities. Outside the EU, British business will be free to grow faster, expand into new markets and create more jobs. It’s time to vote leave and take back control.

Signatories of the letter include Peter Goldstein, a founder of Superdrug, Steve Dowdle, the former vice president Europe of technology firm Sony, David Sismey, a MD of Goldman Sachs and Sir Patrick Sheehy, the former chairman of British American Tobacco.
The polls remain very close...


Finally, no lesser luminary than Lord Farmer, the former Treasurer of the Conservative Party, writes:
“Warnings of disaster if we leave are misguided.Britain, the world’s fifth-biggest economy, should be confident that others will want to trade freely with it especially if, like the EU, they already do so. Europe has a surplus of nearly £70bn with us and no reason to put up barriers.

“Nor will EU countries want to restrict their access to the London markets. Canary Wharf alone does more business than Frankfurt and we are Europe’s financial outlet to the world. Everyone benefits when London booms.

“We can see the possibility now for a bright new beginning. By voting to leave, we will be taking back democracy and this will benefit everyone. By ending a decades-old deception, we will be leading the way for the continent to become more democratic and less intrusive. Brussels will moan, but I suspect the peoples of Europe will be pleased.”
The choice, as it appears to us is simple:

Vote Yes To Brexit, Regain Sovereignty, or

Vote No To Brexit, Saying Yes To Undemocratic Superstate!
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
Last week Cameron and his Project Fear warned that Brexit would lead to WWIII. This week they are trying to convince the electorate that Islamic State backs Brexit. Do these people not realize how feeble they look?

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/17/cameron-islamic-state-backs-brexit/

Project Fear: Cameron Claims Islamic State Backs Brexit

by NICK HALLETT17 May 2016429
SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER


British Prime Minister David Cameron took “Project Fear” to another level today as he claimed Islamic State would be “happy” if Britain voted to leave the European Union (EU).

Speaking in London, Mr Cameron claimed that the terror group’s chief, Abu Bark al-Baghdadi, would prefer Britain to leave the EU, as would Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The claim comes just a week after the Prime Minister said Britain risked World War III if it votes to leave the bloc at next month’s referendum.

Mr Cameron today denied he was exaggerating when he claimed conflict in Europe could be ruled out in the event of a Brexit vote.
“I never said if we leave on Thursday, World War Three breaks out on Friday,” he said.
However, he then went on to say: “It is worth asking the question: Who would be happy if we left?
“Putin might be happy, I suspect al-Baghdadi might be happy.”

The claims have been seized upon by Leave campaigners who say that this is a new low in the so-called “Project Fear” scaremongering to try to persuade Brits to stay in the EU.

The Prime Minister’s words come as a new poll by TNS puts the “Leave” camp in the lead for the first time since February. A total of 41 per cent said they would vote to leave the EU, compared to 38 per cent who will vote to stay.

“This poll suggests that we are seeing movement from undecided voters towards the Leave camp, though we will need to wait until the next poll to see if this is a trend or random variation,”
said Luke Taylor, head of social and political attitudes at TNS UK.

Earlier today, a leaked letter appeared to show the Prime Minister had been liaising with businesses to back the Remain campaign before he had even concluded his EU renegotiations.

While this was happening, the Prime Minister had told Parliament that he was prepared to advocate a Leave vote if he did not get his way.

Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg said that if the letter is true, then the Prime Minister had misled Parliament, something that is traditionally a resigning matter.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
This is an interesting development.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...t-fit-purpose-EU-says-dozen-former-brass.html

Generals fight for Brexit: Our forces would be stronger outside 'not fit for purpose' EU, says a dozen former top brass
• Former military top brass say EU has become 'intrusive' and 'out of control'
• They reject the idea Brexit would have a negative impact on UK's defence
• One of Britain's most respected generals - Sir Michael Rose - claims EU law has seriously undermined the country's combat effectiveness
• See Brexit news as General says forces would be stronger outside EU
By LARISA BROWN POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT FOR THE DAILY MAIL
PUBLISHED: 17:59 EST, 24 May 2016 | UPDATED: 11:07 EST, 25 May 2016



General Sir Michael Rose claims EU law has seriously undermined the country's combat effectiveness
Britain's Armed Forces would be more effective outside the European Union, 12 former generals and admirals claim today.

Throwing their weight behind the Brexit campaign, the former military top brass say the EU has become 'intrusive', 'out of control' and 'not fit for purpose'.

They reject the idea that a Brexit would have a negative impact on the UK's defence and security, saying that Nato is responsible for peace across Europe.

And in a shattering blow to No 10, one of Britain's most respected generals claims EU law has seriously undermined the country's combat effectiveness.

General Sir Michael Rose says service personnel are in danger of becoming 'no more than civilians in uniform'.
His comments will humiliate the Prime Minister because Sir Michael's name was 'mistakenly' added to a letter orchestrated by Downing Street earlier this year which promoted the EU.

The retired senior military officers are backing Veterans for Britain, a campaign for a Leave vote in the EU referendum aimed at serving and former military personnel.

Sir Michael commanded UN troops in Bosnia from 1994 to 1995 and was in charge of the SAS siege of the Iranian embassy in 1980.

In an individual statement, he says today: 'Sovereignty and defence are indivisible. European law, in my view, has already seriously undermined UK's combat effectiveness as a result of the intrusion of European law into national law. And today, our servicemen and women are in danger of becoming no more than civilians in uniform.'

Sir Michael Rose told the Mail:
'There's a whole raft of bits of legislation that have come from Europe that have impacted adversely on our combat effectiveness.'

He said he was referring to health and safety laws, hours of work directives, constraints on the age at which soldiers can bear arms and the abandonment of certain court martial procedures.

Politicians have warned that soldiers will need 'more than just body armour' to wage future wars and they were being embroiled in morale-sapping 'lawfare' rather than warfare.

Britain's military could also be prevented from detaining prisoners of war for more than 72 hours – in what the MoD has described as a 'lethal Catch 22' – because of the European Court of Human Rights.
Sir Michael said it took a different set of disciplines to prepare troops for war than civilian work.
'If the necessary psychologies and disciplines cannot be developed in training during peacetime, then it is unlikely that our people will rise to the uncompromising demands of the battlefield in time of war,'
he added.
He claims the UK's contribution to European defence would be better made through Nato rather than trying to 'spread our limited resources too thinly' by directly funding the EU. Hitting back at claims made by David Cameron, he also said it was an 'insult' to Britain's EU partners to imply that UK membership of the union was necessary to secure future peace.

Other supporters include Major General Julian Thompson, a commander during the Falklands War, and Lieutenant General Jonathon Riley, deputy commander of Nato forces in Afghanistan.
Lt Gen Riley says the Nato is the 'bedrock' of UK security and attempts to build an EU army could diminish British security.

He added: 'Can we seriously believe that our soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines should be sent into danger by a body over which we have no control, and which answers to none of us?'
BIG GUNS TURN FIRE ON NO 10
'Sovereignty and defence are indivisible.
'European law, in my view, has already seriously undermined the UK's combat effectiveness as a result of the intrusion of European law into national law.
'And today, our servicemen and women are in danger of becoming no more than civilians in uniform.
General Sir Michael Rose, former commanding officer SAS
'Can we seriously believe that our soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines should be sent into danger by a body over which we have no control, and which answers to none of us?'
Lt Gen Jonathon Riley, former deputy commander of Nato forces in Afghanistan

Lt Gen Jonathon Riley, former deputy commander of Nato forces in Afghanistan
'Inexorable political integration is a daunting enough prospect but to commit our armed forces into a European army would be utterly reckless and the surrender of our national security.'
Major General Nick Vaux, Falklands commander
'If the EU was up for a job interview involving foreign policy and defence, they wouldn't get the job… the present mass immigration cataclysm shows that the EU is not fit for purpose.'
Major General Malcolm Hunt, Falklands commander
'It is an unelected out-of-control organisation that is autocratic and does not listen.'
Rear Admiral Roger Lane-Nott, Falklands commander
'The claim that the existence of the EU has saved us from war for 70 years is a myth. It is Nato that has kept the peace.'
Rear Admiral Richard Heaslip, former Flag Officer submarines
'Some people in the Remain camp would like us to believe that all co-operation in the anti-terrorist and intelligence fields would cease if we were to Brexit.
'This is arrant nonsense.'
Rear Admiral Conrad Jenkin, former commanding officer OF HMS Hermes
'It is an 'unacceptable and illegitimate form of government and I see, unfortunately, no sign at all that it intends to reform in any way.
'
Vice Admiral Sir Jeremy Blackham


Major General Nick Vaux, Falklands commander (left) and (right) Major General Malcolm Hunt, Falklands commander


Rear Admiral Roger Lane-Nott, Falklands commander (left) and (right) Rear Admiral Richard Heaslip, former Flag Officer submarines

'Either Great Britain will remain in the EU, dominated by people who we do not elect, who we cannot throw out and who dictate many of the laws which govern us, or we will take back control and return to what we were: an independent country in which our Parliament is elected by us, and answerable to us as the lawmaker.
Major General Julian Thompson, Falklands commander
'We reject completely the notion that departing from the European Union would have a negative effect on the UK's defence and security.

'The UK and its Armed Forces would be freer, more effective, more democratic and more able to retain their distinctive capabilities and ethos… without the impositions being applied by the EU.'
Veterans for Britain


Vice Admiral Sir Jeremy Blackham (left) and (right) Major General Julian Thompson, Falklands commander
Together, Veterans for Britain say:
'We reject completely the notion that departing from the EU would have a negative effect on the UK's defence and security. Scares that are being disseminated as part of the EU referendum debate and which relate to departing from the EU are wholly unjustifiable.
'The UK and its Armed Forces would be freer, more effective, more democratic and more able to retain their distinctive capabilities and ethos… without the impositions being applied by the EU.'

Major General Nick Vaux, a commander during the Falklands War, added that an EU army would be 'utterly reckless and the surrender of our national security'.

Major General Malcolm Hunt, another Falklands commander, said the EU was 'not fit for purpose', while Rear Admiral Roger Lane-Nott said it was an 'unelected out-of-control organisation that is autocratic and does not listen'.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...EU-says-dozen-former-brass.html#ixzz49gWi3lcK
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
 

Be Well

may all be well
Fan-freaking-tastic! Hahaha

Anyone who missed this article should read it, fascinating, posting just a snip on this thread to give an idea of it, I posted it some days ago:

Boris Johnson: The EU wants a superstate, just as Hitler did


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...as-hitler-did/


Tim Ross, senior political correspondent
15 MAY 2016 • 10:22AM

The European Union is pursuing a similar goal to Hitler in trying to create a powerful superstate, Boris Johnson says.

In a dramatic interview with the Telegraph, he warns that while bureaucrats in Brussels are using “different methods” from the Nazi dictator, they share the aim of unifying Europe under one “authority”.

But the EU’s “disastrous” failures have fuelled tensions between member states and allowed Germany to grow in power, “take over” the Italian economy and “destroy” Greece, he warns.

Mr Johnson invokes Winston Churchill’s war-time defiance, urging the British people to be “the heroes of Europe” again, set the country free and save the EU from itself by voting to leave in the referendum next month.

The former mayor of London, who is a keen classical scholar, argues that the past 2,000 years of European history have been characterised by repeated attempts to unify Europe under a single government in order to recover the continent’s lost “golden age” under the Romans.

“Napoleon, Hitler, various people tried this out, and it ends tragically,” he says.

“The EU is an attempt to do this by different methods.

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ts-a-superstate-just-as-Hitler-did&highlight=
 

Nowski

Let's Go Brandon!
I am a very pessimistic doomer. I expect the world to come to an end, at any moment,
and that is how I live my life.

Just as the Austrian people lost in their attempt, at trying to take back their nation,
so shall the British people lose as well, in their attempt, at trying to take back their nation.

Great Britain, as well as the rest of Western Europe will eventually be Islamic,
and there is absolutely nothing than can be done now, to stop it.

The so called Arab Springs that originated in Washington DC,
not only destroyed the Arab nations, but has all but destroyed all of Western Europe,
and all of Great Britain. Even thousands of miles of ocean, has not, and will not stop,
the invading Muslim hordes.

At this time, I do not know where the Western European/White race,
will make its last stand on the planet Earth.
Eastern Europe is standing up, however I believe that the Muslim invasion,
will eventually also take over Eastern Europe.
Russia perhaps, however they also have a massive Muslim problem.

For the Western European/White race, the future looks very bleak,
very bleak indeed.

I have seen the Brexit in many nightmares, with ten of thousands of illegal
Muslim invaders dancing in the streets, when Brexit is defeated.

I wish that I had better news, however this is how I am seeing the Brexit currently.

Regards to all,
Nowski
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
Here are the latest poll results. This campaign is likely to turn really ugly in these last four weeks.

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/17/brexit-poll-tracker-the-predictions-so-far/

Britain’s referendum on European Union (EU) membership will be held on June 23rd.
The latest polling information for the ‘Brexit’ campaign can be found below.

25th May (part three): Betfair odds indicate 83 per cent probability of Britain voting to stay in EU
Betting odds today indicate an 82.6 per cent implied probability of Britain voting to stay in the EU at the referendum, according to Betfair.

According to Betfair odds, the implied probability of an Remain vote has increased by about 12 points in the past week and a half, reports Reuters.

25th May (part two): Remain campaign retains its lead in Survation phone poll
A Survation poll for online brokerage group IG published today shows 44 per cent of respondents would vote to remain in the EU compared with 38 per cent who want to leave.

1,013 adults aged over 18 across Britain and Northern Ireland were polled by telephone on May 24.
The result has barely moved since the previous Survation/IG poll on April 27 which put Remain ahead of Leave by 45 to 38 per cent.

25th May: Shrinking support for the Remain campaign now equals growing support for Leave on 41 per cent

A YouGov poll of 1,756 adults for the Times shows support for the Remain campaign at 41 per cent, down three points since last week, with support for Leave up one at 41 per cent. 13 per cent are yet to decide and four per cent will not be voting.

The poll conducted over 23 and 24 May also found Prime Minister David Cameron taking some hits, as trust in him is damaged following his warnings about risks to Britain’s economy and security in the event of a Brexit.

18 per cent said they trust Mr. Cameron over Europe and the referendum, down two percent since the same question was put to them by YouGov in early March. With a one point drop, 22 per cent said they trust Nigel Farage.

In contrast the leading Brexit campaigner and leadership rival, Boris Johnson, is the person most trusted. He commands the support of 31 per cent of respondents, after also weathering a one point drop.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Exclusive - EU launches contingency talks for Brexit vote: sources

BRUSSELS
By Gabriela Baczynska, Jan Strupczewski and Alastair Macdonald
Wednesday May 25, 2016 8:38pm BST
Reuters

European Union officials and diplomats launched a round of confidential discussions this week to prepare a coordinated response to a possible British vote to leave the bloc next month, EU sources told Reuters on Wednesday.

Britain will hold a referendum on EU membership on June 23
.

Senior diplomats from founding powers Germany and France, as well as several other countries, met on Monday for talks chaired by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker's chief of staff, Martin Selmayr, several sources said.

One source with direct knowledge of Monday's discussion said it was intended to be followed by others on specific topics.

The Commission and representatives of those governments present at the meeting declined official comment. Britain, the EU's second biggest economy, was not present -- a situation its diplomats and ministers would rapidly have to get used to if Prime Minister David Cameron's "In" campaign loses.

EU institutions and Britain's 27 partner states have been at great pains to avoid discussing in public the possibility that Brexit could actually happen, for fear of fuelling a Leave vote. Many senior officials admit in private they have no clear idea how events might unfold on the morning after.

While officials have acknowledged that informal discussions have been going on to consider how to react to what would be a political earthquake felt across Europe, Monday's meeting was a first confirmation of a more formal planning process.

Another source said the aim was not to prepare for the unprecedented, years-long negotiations that would be needed to unpick 43 years of British EU membership. Rather officials wanted to be ready to coordinate what kind of first response, especially what communication strategy, would be needed in the hours and days after an "Out" vote.

"The idea is to have something prepared, not leave it for the day after June 23," a third source said.

Slovakia, which takes over the EU's rotating presidency in July, was among countries present at the meeting, sources said. Several added that no clear conclusions were reached on Monday.

A spokesman for the Commission, and French and German representatives, declined to comment on the meeting. The Commission spokesman stressed the EU executive was preparing for Britain to maintain its membership of the 28-nation bloc.

"We don't have a Plan B," Alexander Winterstein said.

CONTINGENCY PLANS

European leaders have postponed a regular EU summit that should have been held on June 23-24 until June 28-29, to give themselves four days to digest the result of the British vote.

If the Leave campaign wins, officials expect the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and others to be ready to respond to heavy market volatility on Friday, June 25.

Sterling has dropped when opinion polls have tended toward Brexit but has strengthened to 3-1/2 month highs as Remain's lead has firmed in polls which are still uncertain.

If Britain votes to leave, the 28 European Commissioners -- one from each state, including Britain's Jonathan Hill -- would probably hold an emergency meeting on Sunday, June 27, EU officials say. They would prepare a strategy before the meeting of EU state leaders on the Tuesday.

"The idea is to have everything ready for the Monday," one EU source said of plans to coordinate a response in Brussels.

"There will be a lot of talk about the show goes on," said another. "There will be expressions of regret, of respect for the wishes of the British people, and probably some dire warnings about consequences to discourage others from doing the same.

"It will be important to coordinate who says what when, and for the EU, minus Britain, to be seen speaking with one voice."

Some diplomats speculate that France and Germany, who drove the foundation of the EU after World War Two, could announce new areas of closer integration in the bloc without Britain. But big differences between Paris and Berlin, both preparing for national elections next year, mean few expect substantial new plans to deepen cooperation in the euro zone.

Cameron has said he would act on a Leave vote "immediately" to trigger a process, set out in Article 50 of the EU treaty, to launch negotiations for Britain to withdraw. The treaty sets out a two-year period for talks, after which Britain would be out unless all states agreed to an extension -- a scenario many British and EU officials and diplomats say is unlikely.

Questions remain about how Cameron, who is widely expected to resign if he loses, will deliver Britain's request to leave.

Assuming he has not been replaced by a new leader by June 28, he might deliver it to the summit in person. But some diplomats question whether he would have the authority to trigger Article 50 talks as a caretaker premier.

(Writing by Alastair Macdonald; Editing by Catherine Evans)


http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-preparations-exclusive-idUKKCN0YG2LD
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
The amount of total "fear" campaign in the media suggests that the Powers that Be are very worried; I think on their own the Brits would probably vote to leave, although that is somewhat regional with places like Northern Ireland wishing to stay in (they have benefited more from the EU than most areas of the UK).

It is hard to tell how many people will be swayed by the heavy hit all doom, all the time; if the UK votes to leave or how many people are not willing to answer the poll honestly (or who simply won't make up their minds until the day).

What I do know is that political manipulators (and dare I saw even fraud creators) LOVE close elections, this make them a lot easier to manipulate in the desired direction without the public fussing much. They hate really obviously landslides for the same reason; I am not saying the vote WILL be manipulated but it COULD be; there are so many billions and billions of Euros/Pounds riding on this, not to mention power blocks; that I could easily see it happening.

If so, look for the UK to stay in the EU but by a very narrow margin...like 1 or 2 percent of the vote; also look for a backlash...
 

willowlady

Veteran Member
I find all these kind of polls very interesting. Most polls regarding the US presidential race underrate the Donald's numbers severely. What has that got to do with Brexit? I personally refuse to participate in polls, so my inclinations go uncounted. I just wonder how many Brits are misreporting or refusing to indicate their inclinations to protect themselves from TPTB. I wondering if this "year of the inaccurate polling numbers" applies to countries other than the US. I'm certain there are a LOT of Brits who are pretty fed up with the EU.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
Cameron believes that the "Remain" vote needs to get more young people registered. My question goes to willowlady's comment above. Which young people does he refer to? Tommy Robinson's group has a lot of young people as well.

http://www.breitbart.com/london/201...u-referendum-turnout-greatest-concern-remain/

Cameron Says EU Referendum Turnout Is Greatest Concern For ‘Remain’



ISE-SHIMA, Japan (Reuters) – Those fighting for Britain to remain in the European Union are making good progress but getting young people to register and turn out to vote is the ‘In’ camp’s greatest concern, Prime Minister David Cameron said on Wednesday.

Surveys show young people are far more likely to be in favour of remaining in the EU, but also far less likely to vote.

An estimated 43 percent of 18 to 24-year-olds took part in last year’s national election, far below the overall turnout of 66 percent and consistent with previous elections, where turnout in that age bracket has been below average since at least 1964.

Cameron, the de facto head of the ‘In’ campaign, said election turnout was “definitely something that is concerning”.

“I feel we are making good progress with this argument, particularly about Britain being better off if we stay in,” he told reporters during a flight to Japan for a summit of Group of Seven (G7) advanced economies.

“Probably my greatest concern is doing everything we can in the next week in order to get people to register to vote, particularly young people because this is absolutely a vote about their future.”
The deadline to register to vote in the June 23 referendum is June 7.

In February, Britain’s electoral watchdog said 770,000 entries had been removed from the voting register in December due to a change in the way people have to sign up to vote.

Cameron did not say what extra steps the government would take to boost youth registration, but earlier on Wednesday a campaign video urging young Britons to vote to stay in the EU backfired, with people taking to Twitter in droves to denounce it as patronising.

With less than a month to go, opinion polls present a mixed picture, with some saying the “In” camp has a big lead and others putting the two sides neck-and-neck.

Cameron’s Conservative Party has long been divided over the issue of the EU, and his team believe ‘In’ needs to win by a large margin to bury the “Europe question”.

Asked how big a win he needed to settle the issue, Cameron said:
“A referendum is based on a simple majority. I want to get as many votes as I can for the case of staying in a reformed European Union but I am not going to try and make any forecasts.”
Last week, the leader of the anti-EU UK Independence Party Nigel Farage said if the result were as close as 52-48 percent for In, the debate would be “unfinished business”.
“There are some people for whom their life’s work and their core belief is that Britain must get out of Europe – I have respect for people who hold a very strong view,” Cameron said.
“I disagree with them but I am sure there will be some people who will go on. There will always be some people who go on making that argument.”
(By Kylie MacLellan; Editing by Stephen Addison)
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
Another voice from the military speaks out.

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/23/army-minister-referendum-establishment-stitch/

Army Minister: Britain Wouldn’t Veto Turkish Membership; Referendum is an Establishment Stitch Up


Getty Images
by DONNA RACHEL EDMUNDS23 May 201692
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Britain is unable to stop Turkey from becoming a member of the European Union (EU), the Minister of State for the Armed Forces has said. She predicted that a million Turks could come to the UK unless Britain leaves the EU, and agreed that the EU referendum is an “establishment stitch-up”.

Speaking to the BBC’s Andrew Marr, Penny Mordaunt said it was “very likely” that a million Turkish migrants would come to the UK over the next eight years if the British public opt to stay within the EU, in part because of the “migrant crisis.”

Mordaunt pointed out that “The Home Secretary [Theresa May], herself a Remainer, made a speech earlier in the campaign that pointed to – or questioning the merits of the EU expanding and having a land border with Syria, Iraq and Iran.”

And she denied that the British people had a veto on whether Turkey joins, saying “We are not going to be able to have a say.”

Although the British government does have a veto on Turkey joining the EU, Mordaunt made it clear that the British people would not be consulted specifically on the matter, saying:
“this is a matter for the British people I think to decide and the only shot that they will get at expressing a view on this is in this referendum.”

As the Prime Minister David Cameron has made it clear that he welcomes Turkey joining the EU, Ms Mordaunt’s suggestion is that the veto would go unused, against the will of the British people.
She agreed with Mr Marr’s suggestion that the EU referendum is turning out to be “an establishment stitch up.”

Her comments directly contradict those of David Cameron, who has insisted that Turkey will not be joining the EU any time soon. Slapping down Ms Mordaunt yesterday, he joked that it will be the year 3,000 before Turkey is able to join.

“It is not remotely on the cards that Turkey is going to join the EU any time soon,” he toldITV’s Robert Peston shortly after Mordaunt’s interview.

“They applied in 1987. At the current rate of progress they will probably get round to joining in about the year 3000 according to the latest forecasts.”

But his current position represents something of a U-turn. Officially, the government supports Turkish accession, a position which a Downing Street spokesman confirmed this morning has not changed.

But Mr Cameron’s spokesman added: “The Prime Minister has made it clear that he would veto any new country joining the EU if it wasn’t in Britain’s interests” – a statement which suggests the Prime Minister is attempting to muddy the waters on Turkish membership ahead of the referendum.

Leave campaigners have asked why, if the government is likely to veto Turkey joining the EU, we are contributing to Brussels spending £2 billion on helping Ankara to prepare their application.
“If it isn’t on the cards why are taxpayers footing the bill for it already?” a spokesman for the official Leave campaign said.

“As with so much in the referendum the remain campaign are saying one thing now before the vote but are planning for the exact opposite after 23 June.”

Commenting, former Foreign Secretary Lord Owen added:
“Only 9 weeks ago David Cameron committed the country at the European Council to re-energise the accession process of Turkey into the EU. The EU is continuing the preparatory work for Turkey at an accelerating pace with all of this going forward in parallel.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
The military is really squawking here. This is the third post about it in as many days. The G-7 is telling scary stories about how the world economy will collapse. An important question here. What is the point of having a military arm of the EU when they already have NATO? To turn on their own people?

http://www.breitbart.com/london/201...army-command-centre-leaked-ahead-brexit-vote/

Hidden Plans For EU Army Command Centre Leaked Ahead Of Brexit Vote

PATRICK HERTZOG/AFP/Getty
by LIAM DEACON27 May 201619
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Plans for a European Union (EU) army, including a centralised headquarters and “permanent structured defence co-operation,” have been leaked despite the EU attempting to hide the plot until the day after the Brexit vote.

The European Commission had been keeping the plans in a sealed room, which could only be entered by a small number of EU political and security committee ambassadors, leaving all electronics at the door.
However, one individual managed to take notes and leak them to The Times. It was revealed that in terms of how the EU functions, “security and defence [are] where a step change is most urgent”.


Federica Mogherini, head of foreign policy in the EU, has allegedly spent years preparing the plans, conveniently due to be discussed by EU leaders just one week after Britain’s referendum.

The plans will, of course, be seen as a major power grab, and an incursion on national sovereignty and the effectiveness of NATO in the lead up to the Brexit vote – thus the secrecy.

The UK vetoed similar proposals in 2011, and David Cameron and the Ministry of Defence (MoD) continue to deny an EU army is possible.

“We now see another EU lie exposed. The EU wants an EU army,” UKIP leader Nigel Farage told LBC radio this morning.

Despite the leaks, Ms. Mogherini’s spokesman continued to claim that the defence plan would “in no way aim to set up the EU army”.

“When I spoke about an emerging EU army [before the general election], Nick Clegg described it as ‘dangerous fantasy’ – Not much fantasy here,” Mr. Farage added on Twitter.
According to the diplomatic note, the plan adds: “The EU can step up its contribution to Europe’s security and defence”.
Continuing:
“Our external action must become more joined up across policy areas, institutions and member states. Greater unity of purpose is needed across the policy areas making up our external action.”
It warns that “in turbulent times, we need a compass to navigate the waters of a faster-changing world,”
and urges the EU to create defence structures using mechanisms set out in the 2009 Lisbon treaty, which would be modelled on the EU’s Brussels-based diplomatic service.

Despite the UK’s veto, there are concerns that a loophole could allow nine states to group together and bypass opponents.

France and Germany have long been vocal supporters of an EU army. A white paper from the German parliament, laying out their plans to push ahead, was leaked last month after they, too, tried to suppress the legislation until after a Brexit vote.

The EU Navy, meanwhile, has been existent for some time. Euavfor is a central command for EU-directed naval operations, which EU countries are required to supply warships to.

Last month, Breitbart London revealed how 600 members of various European police and military forces had carried out an EU funded training exercise in Germany, preparing for major civil unrest and even war.
And, just last week, it was reported that two British Army divisions had joined a 1,500-strong EU Battlegroup training in the British countryside adorned with EU flags.
Despite all this, a Ministry of Defence spokesman insisted:
“We will never be part of an EU army. We retain a veto on all defence matters in the EU and we will oppose any measures which would undermine member states’ military forces.”
Field Marshal Lord Guthrie of Craigiebank, former Chief of the Defence Staff and a supporter of Remain, slammed the development:
“It is silly to have a duplication of NATO . . . We want to spend the money on defence, not bureaucracy.”

Liam Fox, former Secretary of State for Defence and a Brexit campaigner, said that the plans would “weaken NATO and undermine our security to boost the EU’s dream and continued aim of ever closer union”.

He added: “This is our last chance to stop being dragged into a permanent EU military force.”
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
I am surprised that this appeared in Forbes.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timwors...ut-effect-of-brexit-on-pensions/#e73f9bf44124

George Osborne Accused Of Being Less Than Open About Effect Of Brexit On Pensions

Tim Worstall ,
CONTRIBUTOR
I have opinions about economics, finance and public policy.
Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.

George Osborne, the Chancellor of the Exchequer in Britain, is being accused of being less than entirely open and objective about the effects upon pensions and pensioners of Britain leaving the European Union. Not all that much of a surprise as the entire Remain campaign is operating on the basis of fear, uncertainty and doubt. There being little else going for it of course. Thus the blood curdling warnings to this group or that group which appear near every day. Scare the Beejazus out of everyone, one by one, and hope that they vote to stay in.

Even if we put the brightest gloss on what Osborne has done here it’s still not a really very attractive story. For what he’s doing is insisting upon the short term macroeconomic effect and not considering at all the longer term microeconomic effects. And it is those latter which will be important over time: as they are always the most important factors over time. Further, the choice available is not to have the EU of today or not have it: it’s to have the EU of tomorrow or not have that EU of tomorrow. Something very different indeed:

The government has said what it thinks would happen to pensioners if the UK left the European Union, and concluded that they would be worse off.

It is based on the report that the Treasury brought out earlier in the week, which predicted very bad things for the economy in the two years after a vote to leave.

The Treasury modelled a “shock scenario” and a “severe shock scenario”.

The latest document reckons that somebody receiving the full basic state pension would be £137 worse off in real terms by 2017-18 in the former case and £142 worse off in the latter.
This is based purely on those macroeconomic and short term effects. The state pension rises by average earnings, inflation or 2.5%, whichever is the greater in any one year. Currently wages are predicted to rise, inflation not so much, so pensioners will be in one position. Brexit will cause, according to the Treasury, lower wage rises and higher inflation. Thus pensioners will be comparatively worse off. By a rather minimal amount that’s true but given their assumptions this is true.

However, there’s never just the one effect ineconomics:
Pensioners were last night told they face losing ‘dramatic’ sums of money if Britain votes to stay in the European Union.

The warning flies in the face of George Osborne’s claim that Brexit would cost every pensioner up to £32,000 – and asserts that the real threat to retirement incomes is a vote to Remain.
Experts highlighted a Brussels directive which requires insurers to increase their cash reserves to guard against the risk of insolvency.

Even though it has only been partially implemented in Britain, it has already driven down the rates on annuities, which millions of workers have to buy to turn their private or company pension pots into an income for life.
Experts say that if Britain stays in the EU, it is likely to be extended to cover final salary company schemes. State sector schemes won’t be affected.


The EU is indeed proposing such changes and if we stay in then we will have to follow them. And those changes will indeed reduce pensions from what they would be without the rules being changed. That is, the choice is not between the situation today and some hypothetical system if Britain leaves. It is between what the EU will be tomorrow and into the future against not being in that EU system as it will develop.

On the same general subject this is the wrongquestion:

How do the British principally identify themselves: as an island nation or a European people? This question, which lies at the heart of the referendum on whether Britain should quit membership in the European Union, is one tortured with ambivalences.

That’s not it at all: I’m English and therefore British. I live and work in Portugal and the Czech Republic. I adore Europe and Europeans: think the place is simply entirely lovely. My argument is with the specific form of governance which is the European Union. Which is quite simply the imposition of government by the very worst of the continent’s bureaucratic habits. The entire ethos of the system is that there must be a rule for everything and that everyone must obey those rules. The concept that for the vast majority of life there do not need to be imposed rules at all simply does not register. And thus, precisely because I know and love Europe and Europeans, I think Britain should leave the EU: as I also think everyone else should leave the EU. It’s a bad and dangerous institution and the sooner it is destroyed the better.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
Farming issues are also a consideration in this vote. This actually sounds like a pressure piece to keep the use of Round-Up permitted in the EU.

http://www.politico.eu/article/glyp...ision-adds-to-brexit-momentum-for-uk-farmers/

Weedkiller decision adds to Brexit momentum for UK farmers
Many British farmers are tired of perceived cuts in financing and more mandates from Brussels.
By
JENNY HOPKINSON

5/30/16, 4:42 PM CET

Updated 5/31/16, 3:29 PM CET
British farmers are fed up with the meddling from their European neighbors over the best way to grow food — and it’s enough to drive some of them to want to ditch the European Union.

The latest battle is over Brussels’ impending ban on the weedkiller glyphosate, the U.K.’s most widely used pesticide, largely due to political pressure from green groups on the Continent already skeptical of pesticides and certain other new technologies in agriculture. But pulling glyphosate, better known as Roundup, from the market, would be devastating to British farmers who rely on the herbicide to treat weeds.

Many British farmers already are tired of what they say is decreasing financial support but increasing mandates from Brussels on how to run their operations. It’s turned some former supporters of the EU and the access it provides to a market of 500 million customers into poster children of the Leave campaign.

“Distance from government in the end breeds contempt or distrust,” said Michael Seals, a beef and row crop farmer in Derbyshire and spokesman for the pro-Leave group Farmers for Britain. “We feel very, very remote from Brussels.”

Brits cast their votes in the U.K. referendum on June 23, just seven days before EU’s approval of glyphosate is set to expire. The herbicide, the most widely used in the world, has long been approved for use in the EU to clear field of weeds before planting and in orchards, among other applications. While the European Commission will try again next week to get sign-off from member countries before the deadline, governments seem unlikely to change their positions.
More than 2 million hectares of land were treated with glyphosate in England and Wales in 2014. Without it, winter wheat and barley production would likely decline by about 12 percent and cut cultivation of oilseed rape — used for oil and animal feed — by about 10 percent, according to the National Farmers Union.

“Arable farmers have said that for many of them it will be a swaying factor. They really can’t conceive how they would run a farm without” glyphosate, said MEP Stuart Agnew, a member of the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy Group and the U.K. Independence Party. For crop farmers in central England, especially, where the weed black grass spreads quickly through fields, “it’s a crucial part of their farming,” Agnew added.
In or out

Support for the U.K. to stay in the EU has been loud. Prime Minister David Cameron and most of his government, backed by businesses and celebrities, have argued that the uncertainty of what Britain will be like outside of the EU is too much to risk. Even U.S. President Barack Obama has put his clout behind the campaign to remain, writing in an op-ed in The Telegraph earlier this year that “now is a time for friends and allies to stick together.”

And should the U.K. choose to leave the EU, it would move to the “back of the queue” on a trade deals,Obama has said. While Brexit likely wouldn’t affect the trade of food and agricultural products with the U.S. in the short term, should the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership be finalized, American farmers may skip over the U.K. in favor of the friendlier terms for exports to the EU.

But the process for leaving the EU as laid out in the 2007 Treaty of Lisbon calls for a two-year transition period for the country to make its exit. That would be plenty of time to set up policies for the U.K. on everything from pesticides to farmers supports and determine relationships with the EU, supporters say. Besides, Seals said, given the existing amount of agricultural trade between the EU and U.K. — British farmers send more than €16 billion worth of food to the Continent each year and about double that is sent back, according to the NFU — it’s in all parties’ best interest to keep existing relationships in place.

“If you have a product that is the right price at the right standard and the right amount, you will sell it to the EU tomorrow or just as you did today,” he said. “The French aren’t going to source all the sheep meat they source from the U.K. and all the beef meat they source from the U.K. from anywhere else.”

Farmers strongly supported joining the EU in the 1975 referendum to become part of the common market, but the opinion of Brussels have soured since. Agriculture is one of the few areas for which the EU can directly set policies for member countries, and in recent years U.K. farmers have bristled under what they say are overly burdensome and complicated dictates under the Common Agriculture Policy about environmental protection rules and reductions in payments to farmers.

“There is a frustration in the farming community that the CAP isn’t delivering them a profitable agriculture system and to stick with it would only appear to get worse,”
said Agnew, who also owns a poultry farm in Norfolk. He adds that with more countries on the cusp of joining the EU, the system is poised to get even more complicated as it tries to also deal with their needs.

Not just glyphosate
U.K. officials have generally been less averse than the rest of the Continent to the use of chemicals and genetic modification in agriculture. It was not one of the roughly half of EU member countries who decided to ban the cultivation of GMOs, pushed back against prohibitions on the use of certain pesticides linked to bee population declines, and has consistently said it would vote in favor of reauthorizing glyphosate, among other things, according to Adam Speed, a spokesman for the U.K. Crop Protection Association.

“The British government has tended to take a more kind of balanced scientific approach … than what we’ve seen from the EU,” Speed said.

The fight over glyphosate is just the most recent example of the EU ignoring science and putting at risk farmers’ access to new technology, including genetically modified crops, Seals said.

“GM technology, the fact that it’s outlawed in the EU, is a complete anachronism — we need that to go forward,” Seals said. Crop production is about as efficient as it will get without the help of biotechnology, but “there is no limit on what we could achieve if we were given the freedom” to use GM crops, he added.

According to a Farmers Weekly online poll from late April, 58 percent of U.K. farmers support leaving. Of the 577 who participated in the mid-April survey, just 31 percent said they wanted to stay in the EU. In a separate poll of 656 members of the National Federation of Young Farmers’ Clubs released in May, the publication found 62 percent support a Brexit.

To be sure, farmers alone are unlikely to sway the election. Of the 64.6 million people in the U.K., only about 294,000 are farmers, and just half that farm full time. All told, only about 20 percent of the U.K.’s population lives in rural areas. But that block does show up to vote — rural areas and farmers skew older than the rest of the population, a stalwart demographic at the ballot box — and when they do, they tend to support more conservative causes.

However, many key agriculture officials are encouraging Britons to vote to stay in the union. The U.K. Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Elizabeth Truss told POLITICO in April that leaving the EU common market “would hit us very hard.” European Agriculture Commissioner Phil Hogan, meanwhile, has been crisscrossing the U.K. in recent weeks warning that there is no guarantee that supports to farmers would be any better under the as-yet-to-be determined British agriculture policy.

Even Britain’s biggest farming lobby, the National Farmers Union, is calling for a vote to remain in the EU. The group, in a poll of some of its members last fall, found that 52 percent support staying, while just 26 percent want to leave, and 22 percent were undecided.

“We see the future of agriculture much more sustainable inside Europe than outside Europe,” said Glyn Roberts, president of the Farmers Union of Wales.

While the NFU’s stance will likely carry weight with some, rural areas have also been a base of support in recent elections for UKIP, which supports Britain leaving the EU. The party picked up 11 European Parliament seats in the 2014 election, giving it 24 total, more than any other party on the ballot in the U.K. It also nabbed 3.9 million of the 30.7 million votes cast in the 2015 parliamentary election, putting the party in third behind the Conservatives and Labour — though due to voting rules, UKIP only has one seat in parliament.

And the threat to glyphosate is just the type of thing that UKIP wants to avoid by leaving the EU, Agnew said, adding that it’s likely harbinger of things to come if Britain stays in.
“[Farmers] also know that if glyphosate is banned, it is one of the more gentle pesticides … if they are going to ban that, there will be a whole raft of materials that are going to be banned,” Agnew said.

An earlier version of this story misstated the group Glyn Roberts leads. He is president of the Farmers Union of Wales.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
The finance community is busy telling scary stories again. Only the EU looks good?

http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/06/01...-on-brexit-again/?ft_site=falcon&desktop=true

OECD slashes UK, US forecasts, warns on Brexit
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The OECD has slashed its growth forecasts for the US, the UK and Japan, but jacked up its forecasts for the eurozone in its latest ‘Global Economic Outlook’ report, as well as offering a bleak warning (yes, again) on the potential impact of a Brexit on the UK’s economy.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has cut its 2016 GDP growth forecast for the US to 1.8 per cent from 2 per cent in February, writes Joel Lewin.

It cut its 2016 UK growth forecast even more deeply, from 2.1 per cent in February to 1.7 per cent, and warned:

Brexit would lead to economic uncertainty and hinder trade growth, with global effects being even stronger if the British withdrawal from the EU triggers volatility in financial markets.

The OECD said that if the UK votes to leave the EU on June 23, its GDP could be more than 5 per cent lower than if it opts to remain.

It warned that its growth forecasts are predicated on the UK voting to remain in the EU, while a vote to leave would have “substantial negative consequences for the United Kingdom, the European Union and the rest of the world, ” and would cause “considerable additional volatility in financial markets and an extended period of uncertainty about future policy developments”.

The OECD said Brexit could reduce annual UK GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points each year up to 2018, but warned the impact would spill over to other countries both in Europe and beyond:

By 2018, there would be a significant hit to activity in other European economies, especially those who have strong economic linkages with the United Kingdom, with many non-European economies also experiencing a decline in output due to weaker demand in Europe.

The report said that, in the event of a Brexit, UK GDP would be 3 per cent lower by 2020, while GDP in the rest of the EU would be 1 per cent lower.

It also warned:
The reduced access to the EU market would lower inward foreign direct investment, with associated adverse effects on innovation and managerial quality. Lower trade openness would hit economic dynamism and productivity

The organisation cuts its 2016 Japanese growth forecast to 0.7 per cent from 0.8 per cent, but bumped up its projection for the eurozone to 1.6 per cent from 1.4 per cent.

It offered a fairly gloomy assessment of the state of the global economy, warning it is:

stuck in a low-growth trap that will require more coordinated and comprehensive use of fiscal, monetary and structural policies to move to a higher growth path and ensure that promises are kept to both young and old

Global growth will stagnate at a “modest” 3 per cent this year, it predicted, and will only nudge up to 3.3 per cent in 2017, thanks to “weak trade growth, sluggish investment, subdued wages and slower activity in key emerging markets”.

“If we don’t take action to boost productivity and potential growth, both younger and older generations will be worse off,” said OECD chief economist Catherine L Mann. She added:
The consequences of policy inaction will be low career prospects for today’s youth, who have suffered so much already from the crisis, and lower retirement income for future pensioners. The longer the global economy remains in this low-growth trap, the harder it will be for governments to meet fundamental promises.
*Re: chart above.

Other European countries that would be hit hardest by Brexit include: Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway and Switzerland.

Mid impact: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Spain and Sweden.

Low impact: Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic and Slovenia
Tagged with brexitEconomyOECDUKUS
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
The original information in this article is about a year old but Mish Shedlock has repackaged it. Judging from the comments section at the link, a number of British readers have seen this.
Whether it is enough of them remains to be seen.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...-biggest-funders-failed-juncker-immigration-p

Another Reason To Vote Brexit: UK Taxpayers Biggest Funders Of 'Failed' Juncker "Immigration" Plan

by Tyler Durden - 4:00AM
FacebookTwitterGoogle+LinkedInReddit
Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

British citizens seeking yet another reason to vote Brexit, have one in spades.
The roots of this reason go back to last year when European Commission president Jean Claude Juncker hatched a 3-year plan to leverage €20 billion in seed capital to produce a €300 billion gain in Eurozone investment.

As one might expected, the results are nonexistent even though Juncker has already used up the €20 billion in seed capital.

Juncker now wants to up the seed capital, make the plan permanent, and extend the plan outside the EU to immigration zones such as Syria and Africa!
Here’s the kicker. The UK ponied up the biggest share of this monstrous boondoggle so far.

UK Makes the Biggest Contribution to the Juncker Plan
Flashback July 17, 2015: EurActiv reports UK Makes the Biggest Contribution to the Juncker Plan.
The UK may be a Eurosceptic country, but it has made the biggest contribution to the flagship project of the Commission led by Jean-Claude Juncker – the €315 billion Investment Plan for Europe designed to stimulate the EU’s post-crisis economy.

The UK announced yesterday (16 July) it will contribute £6 billion (about €8.5 billion) to projects benefiting from finance by the European Fund for Strategic Investments (EFSI),better known as the Juncker Plan. This is in fact the biggest contribution so far.

The plan is based on a 15-fold leverage of a limited €21 billion of initial public money. As Juncker explained, the fund will be called European Fund for Strategic Investments (EFSI), guaranteed with public money from the EU budget and the European Investment Bank (EIB). The Fund will be able to mobilize €315 billion over the next three years.

The Commission has put up €8 billion from the EU budget. This backs up a €16 billion guarantee given to the Fund. Topped up by another €5 billion from the EIB, the sum totals €21 billion.

In addition, the European Investment Bank (EIB) can give out loans of €63 billion. But private investors will be pitching in the remaining €252 billion.

Juncker warned about national wish-lists, and said there was no guarantee how much they would profit from the fund, if they contribute to it.

Brussels Extends the “Juncker Plan” Beyond 2018 and Outside the EU
Flash Forward May 31, 2016: Brussels Extends the “Juncker Plan” Beyond 2018 and Outside the EU.
Via translation from El Pais …
The European Commission wants to give new impetus to the Juncker Plan, which aims to mobilize investments of over €300 billion by mid-2018. Brussels announced today that the project will be extended by at least two additional years, and aims to make it permanent. The executive arm of the EU will also seek to finance investments outside Europe, in conflict areas and projects related to immigration.

Juncker does not stop there: the head of the Commission shall submit a legislative proposal in autumn to expand the plan beyond the timeframe foreseen (mid-2018). According to sources, the idea is to extend the plan at least two more years, with firepower equivalent. And look for something more ambitious, even permanent, once the next EU budgets are negotiated.

The scheme bears the name “Juncker Plan” to make it easy to point blame if the plan fails.

A leverage ratio of 1/15 is high but not unusual in some projects the EIB, and the environment of current liquidity abundance favors private funding plan. Fund management itself will be a major challenge, as it involves decisions in a short time on the economic viability of many projects with significant distributional consequences between countries and sectors.

A final positive aspect not mentioned so far is the possibility that countries make additional contributions to the fund without being included in the deficit posted by Brussels in the stability and growth pact. This can be an escape route for France to carry out its desired fiscal expansion by the back door (Italy it is more difficult, since by its high debt is also controlled by markets).

However, it is not clear whether these additional contributions can be directed implicitly makes the country, so it is not known whether it will be sufficient to increase the fund’s ability incentive.

Plan Failed Already
“So far it has not failed” said Juncker.

Translation: The plan has failed and Juncker has his hands in every country’s pocket for more funding. The UK is already already the biggest contributor to this madness, having wasted €8.5 billion.

Juncker now wants more … for immigration projects!

Anyone on the Brexit fence reading this and not immediately knowing how to vote, likely has mad cow disease (or worse yet, mad Juncker disease).
Tags
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
ECB would act to counter market turmoil from Brexit - Villeroy De Galhau

Saturday June 4, 2016 3:58pm BST
Reuters

Britain's exit from the European Union would likely trigger turmoil on financial markets prompting the European Central Bank to act, Governing Council Member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Saturday.

Villeroy de Galhau told an economic conference in Italy he hoped Brits would vote to remain within the EU this month. An exit would likely trigger a flight-to-quality among investors, lifting risk premia on lower-rated euro zone issuers' debt.

Central banks would have to step in to counter turmoil and the euro zone would need to speed up its integration efforts, he said.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-brexit-ecb-villeroy-de-galhau-idUKKCN0YQ0JU
 

Thomas Paine

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I am a very pessimistic doomer. I expect the world to come to an end, at any moment,
and that is how I live my life.

Just as the Austrian people lost in their attempt, at trying to take back their nation,
so shall the British people lose as well, in their attempt, at trying to take back their nation.

Great Britain, as well as the rest of Western Europe will eventually be Islamic,
and there is absolutely nothing than can be done now, to stop it.

The so called Arab Springs that originated in Washington DC,
not only destroyed the Arab nations, but has all but destroyed all of Western Europe,
and all of Great Britain. Even thousands of miles of ocean, has not, and will not stop,
the invading Muslim hordes.

At this time, I do not know where the Western European/White race,
will make its last stand on the planet Earth.
Eastern Europe is standing up, however I believe that the Muslim invasion,
will eventually also take over Eastern Europe.
Russia perhaps, however they also have a massive Muslim problem.

For the Western European/White race, the future looks very bleak,
very bleak indeed.

I have seen the Brexit in many nightmares, with ten of thousands of illegal
Muslim invaders dancing in the streets, when Brexit is defeated.

I wish that I had better news, however this is how I am seeing the Brexit currently.

Regards to all,
Nowski

Call me sick, call me vindictive but if it looks like the muzzies are gonna win, I say lets just nuke the damn world and let the mutties figure it out. I'll be damn if I want to see the beauty of western civilization destroyed by a bunch of goat humping, child molesting, non bacon eating camel jockeys. We can all just sit on the porch, put our ray bans on and get that last big suntan. We should already turned most of the middle east into a bunch of smoking craters killing these rat bastards when every and where ever we could have. This would also save all the Islamic moderates from suffering under the jihadist looney toons.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
This does not look good for the "Leave" side.


http://www.breitbart.com/london/201...egistration-causes-concern-leave-campaigners/

Shock Stats: 1.6 Million New UK Voters Registered in Past 30 Days

by RAHEEM KASSAM5 Jun 2016381
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Leave campaigners are concerned that a massive tax payer-funded push to register more than one million young people to vote will drastically alter the country’s European Union (EU) referendum result.

Government statistics reveal that in the past month alone, over 1.6 million people haveregistered to vote in the UK referendum on EU membership, with 900,000 of these registrations coming from those aged under 34 years.

Traditionally, younger voters are more inclined to vote to Remain in the European Union than leave. Recent YouGov polling reveals that those under the age of 24 are likely to vote ‘Remain’ by 64 per cent to 18 per cent, with 5 per cent saying they would not vote, and 13 per cent remaining undecided.

Of the age group 25-49, Remain has the backing of 44 per cent of voters, with just 35 per cent saying they’d vote to leave (six per cent would not vote, and 14 per cent are undecided).
The British government has undertaken a massive voter registration campaign, as has the Labour Party and a number of left-wing, pro-EU outfits such as the BBC, Facebook, local councils, Bite the Ballot, 38 Degrees, the Green Party, and more.

One Leave campaign insider told Breitbart London:
“It’s very interesting, isn’t it? Vote Leave haven’t really managed to do any voter registration drive. Nor do they have a get out the vote operation on the day. There’s no big data. The other side have the Lib Dem data, the Labour Party data, the Green Party data, and much more. I’m not saying this referendum isn’t winnable, but our side has done very little – relying on flawed polls and media instead”.

The government has not yet revealed how much tax payer money it has spent on the voter registration drive, but there have been adverts across traditional media platforms, as well as on Facebook and Twitter.

While over 53 per cent of newly registered voters are younger people, just 27 per cent of new registrations are over 45, the group most likely to vote to leave the European Union. The rest (18.5 per cent) are from the 35-44 age bracket.

On June 3rd, in one day alone, a whopping 192,000 people registered to vote, with 51,700 of these being under 25, and 21,400 of these being between the ages of 25 and 34.

Of a total 1.6 million registrations in 30 days, 95 per cent were conducted online, with just 5 per cent filed by post.

Ninety-four per cent of registrations were from UK citizens, with 5 per cent from UK citizens abroad, and just 0.05 per cent from civil servants abroad, and 0.02 per cent from UK Armed forces abroad.

Matthew Goodwin, Professor of Politics and International Relations at the University of Kent told Breitbart London: “To have an edge on June 23rd the Leave camp will need to be out there on the ground, contacting more voters and focusing their efforts on getting out the vote.

“It is clear from our research that Vote Leave are currently failing to keep pace with Remain when it comes to their number of events and reach. It is also clear that whereas Remain are focused on the densely-populated and more diverse cities, trying to mobilise young people, the Leave side are scattered more widely and seem to have a little less focus”.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
This was just on Zero Hedge and the poll would have been taken BEFORE the Orlando Terror.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...it-poll-if-it-happens-gold-will-be-worlds-str

'Leave' Takes Shocking 19-Point Lead In Brexit Poll - "If It Happens, Gold Will Be The World's Strongest Currency"

by Tyler Durden - Jun 12, 2016 12:59 PM
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The headlines go from bad to worse for the UK and EU establishment as yet another new poll this weekend, byOpinium, shows "Brexit" leading by a remarkable 19 points (52% chose to leave the EU against 33% choosing to keep the status quo). This result comes after 2 polls Friday night showing a 10-point lead for "leave" which sparked anxiety across markets. This surge in "leave" probability comes despite an additional 1.5 million voters having registered this week (which many expected to increase "remain" support). Further anger towards EU was exposed when former cabinet minister Iain Duncan Smith warned that seven new prisons will need to be built in the UK by 2030 to cope with the rising number of migrant criminals (presumedly due to 'staying' in the EU). With market anxiety rising, as One River's CIO notes, if Brexit happens, gold will soar.


A NEW poll has given those wishing to leave the EU a remarkable 19-POINT lead over Remain. As The Express reports,

The Opinium Poll, commissioned by the Brexit-backing Bruges Group think tank, is further evidence that the Leave camp is gaining support and delivers the biggest margin of victory for Brexit so far, after giving voters the option of a choice of free trade agreements with the EU.

It found 52 per cent chose to leave the EU, with only 33 per cent choosing to keep the status quo.

Despite there being less than two weeks before the crucial referendum, on June 23, a further 15 per cent said they still didn't know.

Of those who voted to leave the majority, 39 per cent, said that Britain should have some sort of Free Trade Agreement with the EU, similar to the one currently enjoyed between the US, Canada and Mexico.

Speaking last night Robert Oulds, director of the Bruges Group, said it was important to drive home the fact that a post-Brexit Britain will have a range of options which allow trade with the European Economic Area.

"This new poll shows there are a majority of voters who prefer an economic rather than economic and political arrangement with the EU. These include people who might otherwise have voted to remain in the EU," he said.

“Clearly we can be free, have more democracy and be better off if we ditch or cancel our EU membership, and join a Free Trade Agreement like the one people thought they were voting for in 1975.”
Furthermore, many Brits are talking about Iain Duncan Smith's claims the UK already spends £150m a year housing EU criminals, and that, if Britain "remains" in the EU, seven new prisons will need to be built in the UK by 2030 to cope with the rising number of migrant criminals... (via Sky News)

Former cabinet minister Iain Duncan Smith has warned 3,993 additional jail places will be needed for EU convicts if current levels of migration continue, and if the percentage of migrants who commit prison-worthy crimes matches the rest of the UK population.

This is the equivalent of another seven jails the size of Full Sutton prison in York, which can accommodate 606 inmates.

Mr Duncan Smith believes that if the UK remains in the EU, the problem will only worsen in the years to come - with the likes of Turkey, Macedonia and Albania vying to join the bloc.

The Conservative MP and Out campaigner said: "Our prisons already hold over 4,000 criminals from the EU, costing taxpayers more than £150m a year.

"Our analysis shows UK taxpayers will have to pay an extra £400m just to keep EU criminals in jail. It will mean prisons are more crowded, less safe and less able to prevent inmates returning to crime.

"If we vote to leave, we can take back control of our borders and send EU criminals back to their own countries. We will be able to keep out terrorists and kick out criminals."

Vote Leave's estimate, which is based on net migration levels from the EU continuing at a rate of 184,000 a year until 2030, have been questioned by Britain Stronger In Europe.
Finally, as One River Capital's CIO remarked...
“Gambling websites say Brexit’s a 3-1 bet against,” said the CIO.

“And if you polled every one of us who wager for a living, I reckon 90% would say the Brits Bremain.” I mooed in agreement, nose nestled in tail, huddled in the herd.

He mooed back. “But the polls are 50/50, margin-of-error kind of stuff, and they were pretty good in the Scottish referendum, the London mayoral vote too.”

Brexit would be as shocking for markets as it is unlikely. Which is why no one can ignore it. “All I know is that if it happens, gold will be the strongest currency in the world.”
Which may explain this...

* * *
WHAT’S NEXT?
o Leader of the opposition to answer questions on the referendum on June 20 on Sky News
o BBC will host TV debates June 15 and June 21
o The June 21 debate may prove to be a key market event, Credit Suisse says in a client note
o Campaigns are expected to turn their focus to encouraging the electorate to vote; turnout could play a vital role, Jamie Searle at Citigroup writes in client note; The lower the turnout, the better it is thought to be for “leave”

WHAT’S THE LIKELY REFERENDUM OUTCOME?
o Remain’s lead in Standard Chartered’s poll of polls is 7ppt, suggesting the outcome is still uncertain
o Citigroup analysts said last week they are increasingly concerned on the polls and the implication for domestic political stability after the vote due to growing rancor within the Conservative Party
o JPMorgan’s Malcolm Barr though says the supposed move toward leave looks more like noise than signal
o SEB says probably need a 10ppt lead in polls to be certain they’re predicting the outcome correctly; Standard Chartered would review downside call for the GBP, if poll of polls consistently showed more than a 13ppt lead for remain, analyst Eimear Daly writes
o Estimated odds of Brexit by UBS WM, Citigroup, IHS, SocGen and Eurasia range from ~30% to 40%; Julius Baer cut the est. probability to 30% vs 30%-40%
WHAT HAPPENS IF THE REMAIN CAMP WINS?
o Even if the U.K. votes to remain in the EU, divisions resulting from the vote could lead to early elections, according to Morgan Stanley analysts - The bank’s economists say even if the “Remain” camp wins, slower growth and weaker inflation would push a BOE rate increase back to early 2017
o Meanwhile, ING analysts say if the U.K. votes against Brexit, the BOE could lift rates as soon as Nov.; BNY Mellon analysts note GBP strength after the Scottish referendum faded just hours after the result
o Julian Wolfson, co-head of research & political strategist at Odey Asset Management, says issues are likely to continue even if the U.K. votes to stay and Brexit risk could linger for GBP

WHAT HAPPENS ON A BREXIT?
o ECB stands ready to offer euro liquidity via swap lines, Governing Council member Ilmars Rimsevics said
o Govt paper on the process of withdrawing from the EU shows U.K. and union members will have 2 years to negotiate initially; period can be extended if all remaining 27 members agree
o Much of debate over a potential exit centers on how easy it will be for the U.K. to sign new trade deals and whether the country becomes a less attractive place to invest outside the EU
o BofAML economists say an exit would mean the U.K. would have to renegotiate deals with other regions in addition to Europe; populist backlash in the U.S. and elsewhere may make new agreements difficult
o Large current-account deficit is one of U.K.’s key economic vulnerabilities, CBA analysts write in note - Uncertainty after a “leave” vote could increase risk premia in GBP assets; investors would want higher rate of return to compensate for perceived risks or may simply reduce exposures
o Replacing lost FDI likely to spur higher risk premia in a range of sterling assets, BOE deputy governor Ben Broadbent said last month
o MPC won’t be able to immediately offset all effects of shocks, Carney said
o Capital Economics says ECB may need to take further action; such an outcome could cause financial-market volatility, potentially adverse effects on euro-area economy and financial sector

o In event of Brexit, “referendum-itis” will be catching from Catalonia to Netherlands, in France could change the outcome of next year’s presidential election, Wolfson says
Source: Bloomberg
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
This is excellent reading. The British command of language is something I have always admired.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...ses-mainstream-media-why-i-am-voting-leave-eu

UK Establishment Loses The Mainstream Media: "Why I Am Voting To Leave The EU"

by Tyler Durden - Jun 13, 2016 12:55 PM
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With polls indicating "Leave" leading in the EU Referendum, one well-known mainstream media personality has come out against the establishment. As The Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard explains "at its heart, the Brexit vote is about the supremacy of Parliament. All else is noise," adding "that is why I am voting to leave the EU."

With sadness and tortured by doubts, I will cast my vote as an ordinary citizen for withdrawal from the European Union.

Let there be no illusion about the trauma of Brexit. Anybody who claims that Britain can lightly disengage after 43 years enmeshed in EU affairs is a charlatan or a dreamer, or has little contact with the realities of global finance and geopolitics.

Stripped of distractions, it comes down to an elemental choice: whether to restore the full self-government of this nation, or to continue living under a higher supranational regime, ruled by a European Council that we do not elect in any meaningful sense, and that the British people can never remove, even when it persists in error.

For some of us - and we do not take our cue from the Leave campaign - it has nothing to do with payments into the EU budget. Whatever the sum, it is economically trivial, worth unfettered access to a giant market.

We are deciding whether to be guided by a Commission with quasi-executive powers that operates more like the priesthood of the 13th Century papacy than a modern civil service; and whether to submit to a European Court of Justice (ECJ) that claims sweeping supremacy, with no right of appeal.

It is whether you think the nation states of Europe are the only authentic fora of democracy, be it in this country, Sweden, the Netherlands, or France - where Nicholas Sarkozy has launched his presidential bid with an invocation of King Clovis and 1,500 years of Frankish unity.

My Europhile Greek friend Yanis Varoufakis and I both agree on one central point, that today's EU is a deformed halfway house that nobody ever wanted. His solution is a great leap forward towards a United States of Europe with a genuine parliament holding an elected president to account. Though even he doubts his dream. "There is a virtue in heroic failure" he said.

I do not think this is remotely possible, or would be desirable if it were, but it is not on offer anyway. Six years into the eurozone crisis and there is no a flicker of fiscal union: no eurobonds, no Hamiltonian redemption fund, no pooling of debt, and no budget transfers. The banking union belies its name. Germany and the creditor states have dug in their heels.

Where we concur is that the EU as constructed is not only corrosive but ultimately dangerous, and that is the phase we have now reached as governing authority crumbles across Europe.
The Project bleeds the lifeblood of the national institutions, but fails to replace them with anything lovable or legitimate at a European level. It draws away charisma, and destroys it. This is how democracies die.

"They are slowly drained of what makes them democratic, by a gradual process of internal decay and mounting indifference, until one suddenly notices that they have become something different, like the republican constitutions of Athens or Rome, or the Italian city-states of the Renaissance," says Lord Sumption of our Supreme Court.

It is a quarter century since I co-wrote the leader for this newspaper on the Maastricht summit. We warned that Europe's elites were embarking on a reckless experiment, piling Mount Pelion upon Mount Ossa with a vandal's disregard for the cohesion of their ancient polities.

We reluctantly supported John Major's strategy of compromise, hoping that later events would "check the extremists and put the EC on a sane and realistic path."

This did not happen, as Europe's Donald Tusk confessed two weeks ago, rebuking the elites for seeking a “utopia without nation states" and over-reaching on every front.

“Obsessed with the idea of instant and total integration, we failed to notice that the citizens of Europe do not share our Euro-enthusiasm,” he said.

If there were more Tusks at the helm, one might still give the EU Project the benefit of the doubt. Hard experience - and five years at the coal face in Brussels - tells me others would seize triumphantly on a British decision to remain, deeming it submission from fear. They would pocket the vote. Besides, too much has happened that cannot be forgiven.

The EU crossed a fatal line when it smuggled through the Treaty of Lisbon, by executive cabal, after the text had already been rejected by French and Dutch voters in its earlier guise. It is one thing to advance the Project by stealth and the Monnet method, it is another to call a plebiscite and then to override the outcome.

Need I remind readers that our own government gave a "cast iron guarantee" to hold a referendum, but retreated claiming that Lisbon was tidying up exercise? It was no such thing. As we warned then, it created a European supreme court with jurisdiction over all areas of EU policy, with a legally-binding Charter of Fundamental Rights that opens the door to anything.

Need I add too, that Britain's opt-out from the Charter under Protocol 30 - described as "absolutely clear" by Tony Blair on the floor of the Commons - has since been swept aside by the ECJ.

It is heartening that our judges have begun to resist Europe's imperial court, threatening to defy any decision that clashes with the Magna Carta, the Bill of Rights, or the core texts of our inherited constitution. But this raises as many questions as it answers.

Nobody has ever been held to account for the design faults and hubris of the euro, or for the monetary and fiscal contraction that turned recession into depression, and led to levels of youth unemployment across a large arc of Europe that nobody would have thought possible or tolerable in a modern civilized society. The only people that are ever blamed are the victims.
There has been no truth and reconciliation commission for the greatest economic crime of modern times. We do not know who exactly was responsible for anything because power was exercised through a shadowy interplay of elites in Berlin, Frankfurt, Brussels, and Paris, and still is. Everything is deniable. All slips through the crack of oversight.

Nor have those in charge learned the lessons of EMU failure. The burden of adjustment still falls on South, without offsetting expansion in the North. It is a formula for deflation and hysteresis. That way lies yet another Lost Decade.

Has there ever been a proper airing of how the elected leaders of Greece and Italy were forced out of power and replaced by EU technocrats, perhaps not by coups d'etat in a strict legal sense but certainly by skulduggery?

On what authority did the European Central Bank write secret letters to the leaders of Spain and Italy in 2011 ordering detailed changes to labour and social law, and fiscal policy, holding a gun to their head on bond purchases?

What is so striking about these episodes is not that EU officials took such drastic decisions in the white heat of crisis, but that it was allowed to pass so easily. The EU's missionary press corps turned a blind eye. The European Parliament closed ranks, the reflex of a nomenklatura.

While you could say that the euro is nothing to do with us, it obviously goes to the character of the EU: how it exercises power, and how far it will go in extremis.

You can certainly argue from realpolitik that monetary union is so flawed it will lurch from crisis to crisis until it ruptures, in the next global downturn or the one after that, and will therefore compel the European elites to abandon their grand plans, so why not bide our time. But this is to rely on conjecture.

You can equally argue that the high watermark of EU integration has passed: the Project is in irreversible decay. We are a long way from the triumphalism of the millennium, when the EU was replicating the structures of the US federal government, with an EU intelligence cell and military staff in Brussels led by nine generals, and plans for a Euro-army of 100,000 troops, 400 aircraft and 100 ships to project global power.

You can argue too that the accession of thirteen new countries since 2004 - mostly from Eastern Europe - has changed the chemistry of the EU beyond recognition, making it ever less plausible to think of a centralized, close-knit, political union. Yet retreat is not the declared position of the Five Presidents' Report, the chief blueprint for where they want the EU Project to go. Far from it.

In any case, even if we do not go forward, we may not go backwards either. By design it is almost impossible to repeal the 170,000 pages of the Acquis. Jean Monnet constructed the EU in such way that conquered ground can never be ceded back, as if were the battleground of Verdun.

We are trapped in a 'bad equilibrium', leaving us in permanent friction with Brussels. It is like walking forever with a stone in your shoe.

But if we opt to leave, let us not delude ourselves. Personally, I think the economics of Brexit are neutral, and possibly a net plus over 20 years if executed with skill. But it is nothing more than an anthropological guess, just as the Treasury is guessing with its cherry-picked variables.
We are compelled to make our choice at a treacherous moment, when our current account deficit has reached 7pc of GDP, the worst in peace-time since records began in 1772 under George III.

We require constant inflows of foreign capital to keep the game going, and are therefore vulnerable to a sterling crisis if foreigners lose confidence.

I am willing to take the calculated risk that our floating currency would act as a benign shock absorber - as devaluation did in 1931, 1992, and 2008 - but it could be a very rough ride. As Standard & Poor's warned this week, debts of UK-based entities due over the next 12 months amount to 755pc of external receipts, the highest of 131 rated sovereign states. Does it matter? We may find out.

The Leave campaign has offered no convincing plan for our future trading ties or the viability of the City. It has ruled out a fall-back to the European Economic Area, the "Norwegian" model that would preserve - if secured - access to the EU customs union and preserve the "passporting" rights of the City.

The EEA would be a temporary haven while we sorted out our global trading ties, the first step of a gradual extraction. The Leavers have not embraced this safe exit - or rather, less dangerous exit - because it would mean abandoning all else that they have pledged so promiscuously, chiefly the instant control of EU migrant flows.

By this fourberie they have muddied the water, conflating constitutional issues and with the politics of immigration. We risk a Parliamentary crisis and shrieks of betrayal if the Commons - discerning the national will - imposes the EEA option on a post-Brexit government, as it may have to do.

We leave Ireland in the lurch, at risk of an economic shock that it did nothing to provoke. Those Leavers who chatter cavalierly of resiling from the (non-EU) European Convention of Human Rights should be aware that the Good Friday peace accords are anchored in that document, and if they do not understand why it matters that just 12pc of Ulster Catholics support Brexit, they are not listening to Sinn Fein.

However unfair it may seem, the whole Western world deems Brexit to be an act of strategic vandalism at a time when Pax Americana is cracking and the liberal democracies are under civilizational threat.

Without rehearsing well-known risks, we have a Jihadi cauldron across much of the Levant and North Africa; Vladimir Putin's Russia has ripped up the post-War rule book and is testing Nato every day in the Baltics; China's construction of airfields along international shipping routes off the Philippines is leading to a superpower showdown with the US.


The Leave campaign was caught off guard when Barack Obama swept into London to make it the US view brutally clear, followed by Japan's Shinzo Abe, and a troop of world leaders. You do not unpick the web of interlocking global ties lightly.

One hopes that Brexiteers now understand what they face, and therefore what they must do to uphold British credibility if they win. We must be an even better ally. But by the same token, the people of this country have every right to take this one chance to issue their verdict on four decades of EU conduct.

To those American friends who ask why we cavil at compromises with Europe when we "pool sovereignty" - an inaccurate term - with scores of bodies from NATO to the United Nations, the answer is that the EU is not remotely comparable in scale, ideology, or intent to anything else on this planet.

Remainers invoke Edmund Burke and the doctrine of settled practice, but settled is the one thing the EU has not been in its irrepressible itch for treaties and its accretion of power, and Burke is a double-edged sword.

He backed the American Revolution, not to create something dangerously daring and new, but rather to restore lost liberties and self-government, the settled practice of an earlier age. Americans of all people should understand why a nation may wish to assert its independence.
This is my decision. It may go against my own interest, since I hope to live out part of my remaining years in France - though countless Britons lived there contentedly in 19th Century before we ever had such a thing as the European Union, and no doubt will continue to do so long after it is gone.

I urge nobody to follow my example. It ill behoves anyone over 50 to exhort an outcome too vehemently. Let the youth decide. It is they who must live with the consequences.
 
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