CRISIS SOOoo...where are we on the "Road Warrior Scale" orig. posted 2/14/09

SOOoo...where are we on the "Road Warrior Scale"?

  • 0 - No impact

    Votes: 8 2.1%

  • 1 - Local impact

    Votes: 6 1.6%

  • 2 - Significant local, some regional impact

    Votes: 11 2.8%

  • 3 - Significant market adjustment (20%) + drop)

    Votes: 11 2.8%

  • 4 - Economic slowdown spreads

    Votes: 19 4.9%

  • 5 - Cascading impacts including mild recession

    Votes: 19 4.9%

  • 6 - Moderate to strong recession or increased market volatility

    Votes: 91 23.6%

  • 7 - Spreading *supply problems and *infrastructure problems

    Votes: 136 35.2%

  • 8 - Depression

    Votes: 58 15.0%

  • 9 - Infrastructure collapse

    Votes: 4 1.0%

  • 10 - Societal/political collapse, destabilization into conflict

    Votes: 21 5.4%

  • Other (specify in post)

    Votes: 2 0.5%
  • Total voters
    386
kayakranger

kayakranger

Contributing Member
This is taken from an page on Paula Gordon's site. It is the Homeland Security Impact Scale which is based on the old Y2K impact scale from 1998. I thought the "Road Warrior Scale" sounds like a more apt name for the times.

So with the market collapse, the rise of the cartel in America, job losses etc. Where are we?

I'm thinking we're in a latter stage 6 or early 7. :sht:




0 No real impact on national security, economic security, or personal security

1 Local impact in areas directly affected

2 Significant impact in some areas that were not directly affected

3 Significant market adjustment (20%) + drop); some business and industries destabilized; some bankruptcies, including increasing number of personal bankruptcies and bankruptcies of small businesses, and waning of consumer confidence;

4 Economic slowdown spreads; rise in unemployment and underemployment; accompanied by possible isolated *disruptive incidents and acts, increase in hunger and homelessness

5 Cascading impacts including mild recession; isolated *supply problems; isolated *infrastructure problems; accompanied by possible increase in *disruptive incidents and acts, continuing societal impacts

6 Moderate to strong recession or increased market volatility; regional supply problems; regional infrastructure problems; accompanied by possible increase in disruptive incidents and acts, worsening societal impacts

7 Spreading *supply problems and *infrastructure problems; accompanied by possible increase in disruptive incidents and acts, worsening societal impacts, and major challenges posed to elected and non-elected public officials

8 Depression; increased *supply problems; elements of *infrastructure crippled; accompanied by likely increase in disruptive incidents and acts; worsening societal impacts; and national and global markets severely impacted

9 Widespread *supply problems; infrastructure verging on collapse with both national and global consequences; worsening economic and societal impacts, accompanied by likely widespread disruptions

10 Possible unraveling of the social fabric, nationally and globally, jeopardizing the ability of governments to govern and keep the peace
 
CGTech

CGTech

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I suspect that you may be optimistic.

mid to late 7, approaching 8 at breakneck speed.
 
Giblin

Giblin

Veteran Member
Many issues are not reported or are under reported and glossed over in the media. The TB ers tend to catch a lot of the news. We are on a slippery slope.
 
O

Oldotaku

Veteran Member
I put down 8 (depression), probably because I'm a bit ahead of the curve. I've been out of steady work for 2.5 years now, and if I hadn't had 2 homes free and clear, and several other small income sources, I'd be in real trouble now. I don't see things improving as long as the HNIC and his enabling co-conspiritors are running things.
 
Hacker

Hacker

Computer Hacking Pirate
Between 7 and 8. Actually, we are at 8, but infrastructure issues (on #7) are still to materialize.
 
D_el

D_el

Veteran Member
CGTech said:
I suspect that you may be optimistic.

mid to late 7, approaching 8 at breakneck speed.
Click to expand...


I concur with CGTech.
I also believe we are also precariously onto the slippery slope toward a major revolution that will make the Great Depression scenario look like a moderate downturn.
 
Scotto

Scotto

Set Apart
Now, #7, speeding towards #8.

With 600,000 new unemployed as of last week, #8 will be here before you know it.
 
TECH32

TECH32

Inactive
I put 6 because we're *definitely* past "mild recession" although I haven't seen any infrastructure problems yet.
 
D

dragonslayer2001

Inactive
We

are at a solid 7 right now. Those who think otherwise are not following financial news here let alone around the world.

As I warned for years, the entire world had accepted the western banking model of extreme leverage - someone posted a youtube link yesterday to bill klintoon on the Letterman show, and even he was talking about leverage of 30 to one in the houseing industry -


as in people who invested in housing stocks would put in enough real cash to fund ONE house, but it was leveraged out in loans and made up money to build THIRTY houses.


this is the largest world wide speculative bubble in human history, and as long term members were warned for almost a decade now, when it DID pop, it would take place at lightening speed.


It HAS popped, and the infrastructure is collapsing world wide. OUR country will be particularly hard hit for a number of reasons. The Greatest Depression has started, but just as it took the Great Depression 2-3 years for facts to sink it, this one won't happen all at once. 1-2 years from start to harsh slap in the face.

The collapse in credit and housing started in Nov 2007. In Sept 2008 the Depression and large scale collapse in credit started. It will be very bad by next Sept., and a year later, the world will not look anything like it does today.
 
NBCsurvivor

NBCsurvivor

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Voted other.

As in 'sign me up for a leg/knee brace and a double barreled sawed off shotgun (and the last of the V8s).'

:shkr:
 
LoupGarou

LoupGarou

Ancient Fuzzball
dragonslayer2001 said:
are at a solid 7 right now. Those who think otherwise are not following financial news here let alone around the world.

As I warned for years, the entire world had accepted the western banking model of extreme leverage - someone posted a youtube link yesterday to bill klintoon on the Letterman show, and even he was talking about leverage of 30 to one in the houseing industry -


as in people who invested in housing stocks would put in enough real cash to fund ONE house, but it was leveraged out in loans and made up money to build THIRTY houses.


this is the largest world wide speculative bubble in human history, and as long term members were warned for almost a decade now, when it DID pop, it would take place at lightening speed.


It HAS popped, and the infrastructure is collapsing world wide. OUR country will be particularly hard hit for a number of reasons. The Greatest Depression has started, but just as it took the Great Depression 2-3 years for facts to sink it, this one won't happen all at once. 1-2 years from start to harsh slap in the face.

The collapse in credit and housing started in Nov 2007. In Sept 2008 the Depression and large scale collapse in credit started. It will be very bad by next Sept., and a year later, the world will not look anything like it does today.
Click to expand...

Good post, but I would like to add two things:

First, not only have the builders leveraged their actions and loans, but the money itself is leveraged a LOT as well (infinitely now thanks to no reserve requirements now with TARP 1 bill). So you can multiply your 30, by at least 100-200 times as well.

Second, when the great depression hit, virtually nothing was electronic, messages and news, as well as transactions took days or weeks to process through. Now, almost all of it is done at 99.7% the speed of light, so instead of 1-2 years, it will probably blow up a LOT faster, maybe in as little as a week or two.

Loup
 
China Connection

China Connection

TB Fanatic
We are in the calm before the storm

We are in the calm before the storm


Yep it's somewhat of a lull / calm while the latest traitor positions himself in the white house.

The second half of this year will see hyperinflation and this will bring about Mad Max in society. I then expect from a lab Bird Flu (got to have a name) to be let loose in a form that goes from person to person. Around the same time WWIII should kick in.

The name of the game is depopulation and control. World Government.
 
SIRR1

SIRR1

Inactive
So far so good.

I know of only 1 or 2 people who have lost their job due to economics.

My job is as busy as ever with no signs of a slow down.

The grocery stores are well stocked and no one here is talking of shortages.

The only thing that is different here is the amount of traffic that is on the road and it's way down.

Business as normal here on the Illinois side of the river from St. Louis.

Kind of boaring, no snow just cold.
 
Great Northwet

Great Northwet

Veteran Member
Thanks OddOne for making it a poll.

I voted #6, but that's just my AO; I know it's much worse in some areas of the country.
 
H

Halfdar

Cold and pissy
I suggested DEPCON (DEPression CONdition) 7, although here in Canada things are not nearly as bad as they are in the rest of the world, and certainly we do not face the same stresses as our dear friends south of the 49th... at least not yet.
The problem is, personal experience is extremely varied. I have a copy of a thread from last year, wherein the question was posed 'How hard is the depression hitting you?' Responses were mixed, depending on personal circumstance, and ranged from utter disaster to someone who had to downgrade their satellite TV service to bare minimum to make ends meet. This illustrates the difficulty in assessing, in an overarching sense, the true impact of current events down here in the mud where we live. Such difficulty to continue, I suspect, until, in the words of one of my professors, 'it won't be happening in some other country, it'll be happening in your backyard'. At which point, personal plans and initiatives will have been solidly 'overtaken by events'. Any further prepping will be at that point undoable, and so anything one might wish to accomplish should be seen to ASAP, IMHO, LOL!

Just me thoughts, and nothing more....:groucho:
 
rhealady

rhealady

Inactive
From where I sit in the middle of nowhere in the midwest we are no more than a 3. I recognize there are areas, like Michigan, that may be an 8.
We are a 2 or 3.
 
B

Burntfish

Inactive
We are between a 7 and an 8...we have seen the explosion in the distance and are holding our collective breaths for the BOOM ! :sht:

Fish
 
A7D

A7D

Swamp Life
Right now I feel that the majority of folks are either still in denial, totally ignorant due to media propaganda or just don't give a rats behind. When the truth becomes unarguable and reality sinks in, they'll begin to care but it will be too late. IMO, a road warrior scenario will be like a walk in the park for most.
 
kayakranger

kayakranger

Contributing Member
Thank you OddOne!

I would have probably voted a seven but went with six because recently almost all the folks I know who lost a job now have new ones. I have recently converted from being a contractor to permanent full time and am very busy, at least for the next year or so. I pray that it will not be fleeting though. We have a way to go yet.
 
Haybails

Haybails

I got my first Timebomb!
kayakranger said:
This is taken from an page on Paula Gordon's site. It is the Homeland Security Impact Scale which is based on the old Y2K impact scale from 1998. I thought the "Road Warrior Scale" sounds like a more apt name for the times.

So with the market collapse, the rise of the cartel in America, job losses etc. Where are we?

I'm thinking we're in a latter stage 6 or early 7. :sht:




0 No real impact on national security, economic security, or personal security

1 Local impact in areas directly affected

2 Significant impact in some areas that were not directly affected

3 Significant market adjustment (20%) + drop); some business and industries destabilized; some bankruptcies, including increasing number of personal bankruptcies and bankruptcies of small businesses, and waning of consumer confidence;

4 Economic slowdown spreads; rise in unemployment and underemployment; accompanied by possible isolated *disruptive incidents and acts, increase in hunger and homelessness

5 Cascading impacts including mild recession; isolated *supply problems; isolated *infrastructure problems; accompanied by possible increase in *disruptive incidents and acts, continuing societal impacts

6 Moderate to strong recession or increased market volatility; regional supply problems; regional infrastructure problems; accompanied by possible increase in disruptive incidents and acts, worsening societal impacts

7 Spreading *supply problems and *infrastructure problems; accompanied by possible increase in disruptive incidents and acts, worsening societal impacts, and major challenges posed to elected and non-elected public officials

8 Depression; increased *supply problems; elements of *infrastructure crippled; accompanied by likely increase in disruptive incidents and acts; worsening societal impacts; and national and global markets severely impacted

9 Widespread *supply problems; infrastructure verging on collapse with both national and global consequences; worsening economic and societal impacts, accompanied by likely widespread disruptions

10 Possible unraveling of the social fabric, nationally and globally, jeopardizing the ability of governments to govern and keep the peace
Click to expand...

Where's "Infomagic" when ya need him?!?!? :D


HB
 
D

Double_A

TB Fanatic
Nationally as a whole a Solid 7 and Could go to 8 in three weeks or less.

Some areas are 8 already and I think those that gave ratings under 6 are looking too narrow in scope, as nearly every state in the union has serious problems, some states critical problems.


Too many people are in this mode....
I guess I'm kinda doing ok. Well I'm fine. I guess there is some recession. Now that I think, a couple families on the block have had a husband or wife laid off. Oh and there was that foreclosure across the street back in November. Oh yea my brother's eldest son & wife got laid off. Humm my wife was saying she doesn't feel secure at work since they closed the coast division....He wait a second maybe we are in trouble?
 
kayakranger

kayakranger

Contributing Member
While I don't think we're anywhere near it yet. If anything COULD "go Infomagic", I think this is it.

I think we still have a year or two but after that it gets real murky.

We have to use this time to improve our preps and teach the kids...the kids...the kids...
 
Dennis Olson

Dennis Olson

Chief Curmudgeon
_______________
It's currently at 7 IMO. Where it goes from here is anyone's guess at the moment. It depends on whether or not we have REAL ACTION by REAL LEADERS. If so, we might limit it to a 7. If not, we're heaed for the big ONE OH....
 
cory

cory

Inactive
I'm usually much more polly than Dennis...

Dennis Olson said:
It's currently at 7 IMO. Where it goes from here is anyone's guess at the moment. It depends on whether or not we have REAL ACTION by REAL LEADERS. If so, we might limit it to a 7. If not, we're heaed for the big ONE OH....
Click to expand...

However, it looks like a 7 or 8 to me. That's if the "problems" are financial and employment.

The jobs are vanishing in this area.

This is after the pension/savings losses and the home-equity losses.
 
Scotto

Scotto

Set Apart
For those that are still in areas where they aren't too affected yet, happy for ya. I live in an area that for years has had high unemployment, low wages, etc. So in a way it's not hit too hard here as of yet, but businesses are still closing.

With everything in the news, and what's been posted here, for the life of me I don't understand how anyone could have voted for anything lower than a 5. Seriously.

And whoever voted for "0" has got to be joking or the biggest DGI we have here.

And I'm not being argumentive, just honest. Seems like #7 is most popular, and right on the money.

Good poll.
 
T

truthseeker

Inactive
We are openly a 6. We have 7 & 8 in Progress, but still in the background. 9 is coming by years end. 10 will be happening in parts of the world this year.
 
S

SpiritBear

Inactive
Being from Michigan and out of work for 2 months now myself (with NO interviews so far despite a fantastic resume and ALWAYS being able to find work quickly), I voted 8. We're definitely in what I'd call a Depression, and I have NO faith in the steps being taken by our "leaders" (what a freaking JOKE) to get us out of it.

But - we don't see "supply problems" yet, so the definition doesn't "totally" fit.

- SB
 
H

H2O

Senior Member
Voted six, heading toward 7

Recession and severe market volatility, but just beginning (I think) to see shortages. Infrastructure has needed repair for the last 10 years, but personally do not expect to see large numbers of major failures (if things continue as they have been) for a bit. Of course, with almost every state facing budget shortfalls, infrastructure could get to the failure point pretty fast, especially with help from bad weather this spring and summer.
 
L.A.B.

L.A.B.

CV19 West Coast 1st Battalion “Maverick’s”
I voted 3, 20% significant market adjustment. If you think it is worse I hope you have enough extra seat belt to clinch with. This ride is only now showing up in the cadence of imports of our JIT economy.

Mad max is when those 1% of the sociopaths begin organizing and recruiting the other four percent who need a little inspiration to perform ungodly acts. This ride is in it's infantile mode. Think Tea-cups or Mad hatter compared to Free fall at the mountain.
 
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